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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:23AM EDT - TD#5

Quick update: Advisories to be issued on TD#5 as of 11am NHC advisory.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:16AM EDT - Edouard maybe already?

Good morning and Happy July 4th America!

A happy 4th it will be weatherwise for the east coast of America as well concerningÂInvest 97L but maybe not so much for Bermuda. Trekking ENE about 15 mph, 97L has about a 60% chance of development into a depression at least, with earlyÂmodel guidance suggesting a peak mid tropical storm of 55-60 mph in about 3 days.The next name on the list will be Edouard in an already early active Atlantic season. Bermuda should start receiving impacts of thunderstorms, high surf, gusty winds, and rip currents tomorrow evening while east coast impacts will be minimal in the way of higher surf and increased rip currents. Then, he will move off to visit Europe to help cool off their heat wave.

The eastern Pacific has picked up as it usually does before the Atlantic and there are several potential areas to watch but none appear to be a threatÂland wise at the moment. A note in the far Western Pacific not reallyÂtropical even for Japan but deadly and wow, what a deluge. Credit to Sayaka Mori in Japan several hours ago: 381 mm of rain fell within 6 hours translating into 2.5 inches an hour aka 15 inches in southern Kyushu. TheÂKuma River has flooded, houses have collapsed and sadly, there is a death toll.

Meanwhile, the GOM and the Caribbean, both east and west, are pretty quiet. Most of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern, could use some rain. The USVI's and BVI's are dry as a bone pretty much. Why? Our two main protectors from storm formation, wind shear and that seemingly omnipresent, drying out the atmosphere Saharan Dust, have been very active so far but as we well know, these will falter as we approach the peak of season, mid August to mid October. With SST's very warm already (the fuel of the storm), wind shear falling, the Saharan Dust level diminishing, and the absence of El Nino in the Pacific, it still looks like an active season ahead. It also looks like some decent rains will start to arrive soon and so will the double edged sword.

Preparation and knowledge is the key to protection of life and property. The property can be replaced. You cannot. Remember, it only takes one. Not 15.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Monday, June 22, 2020 18:39PM PDT - Dust and TD#4
We have a major Saharan dust event underway on the islands and it is the Talk of the Town. Check out the pictures posted by the special hurricane correspondents on the right. Also see the 'true-color' satellite image below, clearly showing dust over the islands. And it looks like more is on the way later this week! A good source to see images of the Saharan Air Layer is at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/ (the below image is cropped from the GOES-16 Natural Color one).

Dust is actually good for suppressing hurricanes. It is still a bit early for the Atlantic Cape Verde storms, so hopefully we get some more dust later. Although, dust is not good for people with allergies and/or respiratory illnesses, as Barabar on St.Maarten noted... Nevertheless, Tropical Depression Four just formed in the Atlantic, albeit well north of it, off Cape Cod. It might become a named storm, but it will be of no threat to (is)land (incl. Bermuda). -Gert

Dust over the Islands - 6/22/2020 [tropic.ssec.wisc.edu]

Saturday, June 6, 2020 16:59PM EDT - Cristobal plus

Good afternoon all,

It's highly unusual to find a cone of uncertainty that stretchesÂfrom the GOM all the way well into Canada but that is what TS Cristobals is and continues to be. Heck, the 5 day cone shows Cristobal still a depression over the UP of Michigan! Again highly unlikely but wow how this guy will continue to ramble on well after landfall probably as a very strong system through Canada and the Great Lakes.

First things first though, the Atlantic and the Caribbean. East to NE of Bermuda, a low pressure system could form but it's chances are slim at this time. If it does, it would most likely move NW or WNW which could make things interesting for the NE or Canadian Maritimes. If it does reach named storm status, it would become Dolly. Will Dolly meet up with Cristobal if this scenario plays out? That would be a very interestingÂsituation. However, remote for now.

The rest of the Atlantic and Caribbean are pretty quiet. A few tropical waves are marching across the MDR or Main Development Region of the Atlantic but we don't usually look for much development in this area at this time of year. SST's are running warmer than usual and wind shear is moderate but Saharan Dust is ever present, stifling any early season attempt. The only wave that has any attention is the one that just splashed down off the African coast but that one's main hindrance is it's proximity to the ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Until it escapes to over 10 degrees north, it has minimal chance of doing anything.

Cristobal is poised to become the second land falling named storm of this very early active season. TS Arthur did not make an actual landfall as it's COC or center of circulation did not touch the Outer Banks, coming within about 20 miles of. Cristobal will be dangerous whether a high end tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane, which is entirely possible. It has some work to do wants to achieve that rare event in June. It has to seal off the western side from dry air intrusion, slow down a bit in order to consolidate it COC and bring it's windfieldÂin closer to the core. Cristobal is massive so rapid strengthening is remote. Even when the pressures drop, it is so big the wind field might not have time to catch up.Â

That said, Cristobal has a chance for strengthening overnight before land fallÂon Sunday. Whether it does or not, storm surge, rip currents, heavy rain and flooding along with tornadoes are on his menu. It is not a polite menu either. This is not Sunday Brunch. Please evacuate if told too. The effects of this system will be felt over a very large area and will continue to be for days to come.

Preparation and common sense are keys to survival and the aftermath.

Dave



Virus-free. www.avg.com

Tuesday, June 2, 2020 09:43AM PDT - Cristobal
Tropical Depression 3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This is the first time ever (=since 1851) that 3 named storms have formed this early. 2016 was close, with the third storm forming June 5, and in 2012 the third storm formed on June 17. Don't be fooled, this is a very dangerous storm. Because it is hardly moving it will cause prolonged periods of torrential rainfall in Mexico and Central America. There already have been deaths reported due to flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. It doesn't look like it will start moving out of the area until Friday... I have shifted the satellite image above a bit more to the west to get a better view at this storm. -Gert

Monday, June 1, 2020 21:07PM EDT - TD#3/Cristobal

Good evening all,

I trust everyone is doing well, staying safe and healthy while riding out the pandemic that envelopes the world in different degrees and stages. Please be safe, stay aware, and prepare. BTW, looting and violence will not bring or realize justice. Looting a 50" TV will not assist getting justice; that's just taking greedy advantage of the situation. Back to the weather.

Gert, Thank you for 25 years of silver anniversary for providing a forum in which to enrich, enlighten, inform, sometimes chastise (on my part), and educate the Caribbean and others about the Atlantic Hurricane Season and it's contents which includes, watches, warnings, perils, preparation, devastation, relief and recovery, etc.... Thank you also for allowing me to participate on this site since 1997 I believe. I enjoy the weather while sharing what I know and observe with others with the hope it helps someone and saves lives. Yes, Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Dorian in the last three years have been eye openers to say the least. Having personally went through Irma and Maria within 12 days tests your will, your mind, your resources, your beliefs and trust. Just saying, I love the weather but Mother Nature, please take all the next 20 years worth of storms OTS aka make them fish storms to talk about, not remember.Â

So, June 1st, the first official day of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season starts today but tropical activity, while minor, has been prolific and surprising already in the month of May. TS Arthur, makes a not so surprising appearance along the SE coast brushing the Outer Banks while TS Bertha, who would have never been recognized before the 1970's, rapidly sloshed into South Carolina. TS Bertha was basically a Sunday visit to the buffet: One hour from designation as a TS to landfall. Second shortest on record by 15 minutes.Â

Now, we have TD#3. Soon to be TS Cristobal, it will linger and lurk for the next few days around the Bay of Campeche. Heavy rains and flooding will be Central Americas issue no matter what. Future tracks are uncertain. West into Mexico. Or, Saturday a TS in the GOMEX.Then where? Beyond uncertain. So, anywhere along the GOM and Florida need to pay attention, heed, and prepare. This one has no zeroed in on point yet.

Bottom line prepare no matter what. La Nino is non existent. The Atlantic, unless wind shear and Saharan Dust are seriously prevalent, will be highly active. I have been saying way before TWC and others: It only takes one to land on your island or house. I find it funny they are now using that statement. However, it is true no matter who says it.Â

TS Cristobal which is almost inevitable, has some place to land with evil intentions. Central America's issues with this system will be morphed into a GOM problem of where, what as and when. Landfall is a certainty once in the GOM as there is no real exit lane unless any of them dipped south and exited the Straits of Florida into the Atlantic which I believe has ever happened yet.Â

Have a safe and healthy evening. Seems like it's time to strap on the tropical seat belt!

Dave
Â

Monday, June 1, 2020 2:11AM EDT - Silver Anniversary
Update 5PM AST: Tropical depression 3 formed right where we would expect it from the plot below, down in the Bay of Campeche, off Mexco. It is expected to become a tropical storm soon (Cristobal). It is going to move pretty slowly, so the rain will be the biggest problem. The advisories indicate up to 20 inch locally!

A huge milestone, this is the 25th year for this website! I started it back in 1996, when I realized that the mainstream news coverage of hurricanes in the Caribbean is largely absent or too generalized to be worth anything. The 'internet' was very different back then, blogging was not a word and Google didn't even exist yet. We were using the Altavista search engine and Mosaic browsers... A lot has changed, and news is easier to get nowadays, including first hand reports through Facebook. But for now, this website still fills a need.

A special thanks to Dave McDermott who helps me with writing hopefully easy to understand updates. Thanks to all the special hurricane correspondents on the islands. Without all these volunteers this website would be pretty boring! Some have been with us for a very long time. And of course, since there are considerable costs associated with this high traffic website, thank you all who have donated money, esp. the ones who have given year after year! Thank you all!

Another thing that came through recently and which I have been trying to get for many, many years is the ownership of the domain name stormcaribe.com, since many people like to add an 'e' to stormcarib. No one was doing something useful with that domain, but somehow different registrars kept renewing it, and I was unable to steal it when the registration expired. At one point is was even a porn site! When you type in stormcaribe.com by mistake you will automatically be redirected to stormcarib.com.

OK, today marks the first day of hurricane season. We have already had two storms. Pretty unusual, it only happened 6 times before in the last 170 years (see my earlier post). Although it seems to become more common, since half of the cases happened in the last 10 years. Hmm, I wonder what the cause of this could be... Many of the forecasts predict an above normal season. Pretty soon Colorado State will come out with their updated one. A lot of it will depend on the ENSO status. El Nino is good (suppresses hurricanes), La Nina is bad. The latest ENSO forecast from 2 weeks ago predicts mostly neutral conditions through August (65% chance, with 25% chance of La Nina and 10% El Nino). In September chances for an La Nina are going up a bit (50% neutral, 40% La Nina, 10% El Nino). So not really optimal and this is probably the main reason for the above average hurricane activity season forecasts. At the time of the last forecast by Colorado State La Nina chances were a bit lower (45% neutral, 35% La Nina, 20% El Nino), so I suspect that the number of storms they forecast will go up a bit. Below the names of the storms and pronunciation used this season:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur         AR-thur          Laura           LOOR-ruh
Bertha         BUR-thuh         Marco           MAR-koe
Cristobal      krees-TOH-bahl   Nana            NA-na
Dolly          DAH-lee          Omar            OH-mar
Edouard        ed-DWARD         Paulette        pawl-LET
Fay            fay              Rene            re-NAY
Gonzalo        gohn-SAH-loh     Sally           SAL-ee
Hanna          HAN-uh           Teddy           TEHD-ee
Isaias         ees-ah-EE-ahs    Vicky           VIH-kee
Josephine      JOH-seh-feen     Wilfred         WILL-fred
Kyle           KY-ull

Finally, I have updated the climatology section. Last time I did it was in 2011 so it was about time. A lot more work than I thought, since my scripts weren't really working anymore and I wanted to make nicer maps. I analyzed almost 1900 storm tracks from 1951-2019 (see image on the right). The climatology section contains over 600 webpages and over 4500 images. There are different sections: maps of storms that passed by your island, peak of the season for your island, five year analyses (are we seeing more storms lately?), hurricane capital of the Caribbean, and more. Also included is an analyses of where storms form for each month. Below is the map for June. In the last 76 years (since 1944) we had 57 storms form in June, 75% of them became 'just' tropical storms, no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes. More importantly, for us in the Caribbean it looks pretty good. Hope it holds true!

OK, this turned out to be a much longer post than I anticipated, so much new news :-). Everybody good luck this season! Hopefully things will go back to more or less normal regarding COVID-19 soon, with tourists coming back to the islands! Stay safe and don't do stupid things! And if you are able to, consider making a donation to the website, so that it can continue for many years to come! -Gert

Storm Origins for June

Wednesday, May 27, 2020 11:55AM PDT - Bertha
And surprise, surprise, here is storm number 2, Bertha! It formed this morning just before making landfall in South Carolina. Since it is over land already Bertha will not be long lived, although it will dump a lot of rain...

I am working on updating the climatology section (a lot more work than I expected, maybe that's why I hadn't updated it in the last 10 years or so...), so I have all the data to figure out how uncommon it is for two storms to form before the official start of the season. It is actually not that uncommon for storms to form before June 1, this is the 33rd time since 1851 (about every 5 years). However, this is only the 6th time that 2 storms have formed. The other years were 1887, 1908, 1951, 2012 and 2016. See the table below, showing date of formation, storm id, name, maximum wind (mph) and category. In 1908 two hurricanes formed before June 1 and in 2016 we did have a hurricane in January! In 1981 there were actually three systems before the start of the season, but the first 2 were tropical depressions (which I didn't count, I only include 'named' storms that formed between January 1 and May 31, so I didn't include storms that formed in December and persisted in January either). Five more days... -Gert

date      stormid  name   wnd cat
1887/5/15 AL011887 UNNAMED 69 TS
1887/5/17 AL021887 UNNAMED 58 TS

1908/3/6  AL011908 UNNAMED 98 H2
1908/5/24 AL021908 UNNAMED 75 H1

1951/1/2  AL011951 UNNAMED 63 TS
1951/5/16 AL021951 ABLE    92 H1

2012/5/19 AL012012 ALBERTO 58 TS
2012/5/25 AL022012 BERYL   69 TS

2016/1/7  AL012016 ALEX    86 H1
2016/5/27 AL022016 BONNIE  46 TS

2020/5/16 AL012020 ARTHUR  60 TS
2020/5/27 AL022020 BERTHA  50 TS

Saturday, May 23, 2020 20:46PM EDT - A PSA & Season Approach

Good evening,

I trust and hope all is well and safe with all of you. The last 10-12 weeks have been life altering to most, mind boggling to some, a nuisance to many and eye openingÂto all whether you believe or not. Use common sense and follow guidelines, while they may be a nuisance and inconvenient, they do protect and save lives. The more vigilant we are now, the quicker the return to a near sense of normalcy although I believe the old normal will be relegated.

PSA. This is a weather site and we all know many of us have gone through many weather events personally, myself included especially 1995 and 2017. However, this afternoon, while weather related, was unexpected and a lesson for all.Â

I now split my time working between Florida and the US Virgin Islands, my former home for 30.5 years. Rip currents are no stranger to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, especially the northern facing coasts. However, beaches are not prevalent on that side in the VI while more numerous in PR however, deaths and accidents due to these rip currentsÂare few and far between there. Florida coasts however are a far different story.

Readers Digest version: Today, while standing 20 feet farther into the ocean than my girlfriend Melody, say 40 feet into the water, enjoying the surf, sun and just being outside and in the 77 degree water, I said to her: "hey lets walk over to that sandbar."Â Low tide at 3 pm, the sandbar was a mere 75-100 feet away. She smiled and nodded. I watched her turn to walk that way. A wave broke over my head and then quickly another. When I came up out of those, MelodyÂwas 200 feetÂaway. I said a few curse words and then another wave broke over me. I came up and noticed her even farther away. I realized wow, I was in a rip current. Best guess was 6 mph. That's 1 mile per 10 minutes. I immediately started to swim parallel to the beach. Many waves broke over me for what seemed endless and holding breath in between those waves was a challenge as I was in the breaker zone but then I touched a sandbar, stepped up and a few steps later broke freeÂof the current. Standing upright and seeing my girl Melody and the rest of the people was a relieving sight. Note: The lifeguard was attending another emergency north of me so it wasn't his fault he didn't see me swept out. After recounting the events with Melody, we returned to the water, more aware and lesson learned. My point to all here is, yes they exist, no we don't think about them that much in the Caribbean but when warned, heed. They are potential sneaky killers. I was lucky. I also learned a lesson. Yes it was by chance I stepped in ones path with no idea it was there but the lesson is learned. Awareness of your surroundings and knowledge of what to do in case the unexpected happens, as in this case, can mean the difference. Tonight, upon reflection, it hits home to both of us much harder. What if? But, positive is how I live so moving along and not dwelling. But wow.Â

Now to the future season. El Nino is going to be almost non existent. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic waters SST (sea surface temperatures) are above average. Wind shear, one of our best friends during hurricane season, looks to be on the down low. Saharan Dust, another mitigating factor, will always be present but will not be the almighty savior it has been over the preceding years. This season looms to be very active. Where and when are variables as are the weather conditions at that precise time of formation and trek. Our mission is to be empowered with knowledge, experience and to be prepared.Â

Eight days from now we will have the official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. TS Arthur has already been a premature nuisance and a few of the computer models have suggested some activity in the Western Caribbean and GOM in the next few weeks. This weekend, here in Fl which has been in a drought of all sorts, a tropical wave is expected to lift up from the south and provide anywhere from 1/2 inch to 8 inches over most of the peninsula. Drought buster in some areas while a drought wimp surely in others. Main day will be Memorial Day. We shall see.Â

Stay safe and well. Get and be prepared. Live each day as if tomorrow might not come. It's a tough world right now but with a positive attitude, awareness and perseverence, we will all overcome the obstacles in our collective way.Â

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Thursday, May 21, 2020 12:16PM PDT - NOAA predicts busy hurricane season
Some more hurricane news... NOAA's Climate Prediction Center just came out with their forecast. They say that there is a 60% chance that it will be an above-normal season (30% near-normal and 10% below normal). They are forecasting 13-19 named storms (12 is normal), 6-10 hurricanes (6 is normal) of which 3-6 will be Category 3 or higher (3 is normal). Factors driving this is the absence of El Nino conditions, above normal sea surface temperatures, reduced vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. They will update their forecast in August, just before the peak. On June 4 Colorado State will issue their updated forecast. Back in April they predicted 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, so also an above normal season. Read more on the NOAA website. -Gert

Wednesday, May 20, 2020 13:32PM PDT - Amphan and stronger storms
Two pieces of hurricane news..., Cyclone Amphan made landfall in West Bengal, India, close to the Bangladesh border. Sustained winds were 100 mph, making it equivalent to a Category 2 "Atlantic" hurricane. One major problem is the flooding, because of the low-lying river deltas in this region... Another problem is that people are reluctant to go to emergency shelters because of COVID-19. This storm was once a "Category 5" storm, and underwent extremely rapid intensification: over 36 hours winds increased by 110 mph, from 50 to 160 mph!

That brings me to my second topic, a paper was just published in PNAS by NOAA scientist, noting that climate change ("global warming") is indeed causing stronger storms, esp. in the Atlantic. See also this article in the Washington Post. This is a big deal since storm force increases exponentially (not linearly) with windspeed. The little sidebar on the right shows that there is a big difference in storm force between the different category hurricanes, even though windspeeds differ only by about 15-25 mph. In the WP news article, meteorologist Elsner is quoted as: "Hurricane destruction in the United States, in terms of physical damage costs, has historically increased by 10 percent for every 5 mph increase in wind speed".

The PNAS study finds that the chances of a storm becoming Category 3 or higher is increasing about 8 percent per decade. Also, not only are storms stronger, and due to higher seawater temperature, wetter, they also seem to intensify much more quickly, like Amphan did, and as we have recently seen in the Caribbean, like Maria. So, unfortunately it looks like we will see more 'big ones' in the future... More the reason to be well prepared... -Gert

Sunday, May 17, 2020 10:52AM PDT - First storm
Hurricane season hasn't even officially started yet and we already have the first storm of the season. Yesterday tropical depression One formed off the east coast of Florida and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur a bit later that day. It is of no worries to us in the Caribbean, but it may pass close to North Carolina tomorrow. It is not expected to become a hurricane.

This is the 6th year in a row that a tropical storm has formed before the official start of hurricane season (June 1) according to Brian McNoldy. He also shows that there is indeed a trend that storms form earlier. However, no need (yet?) to change the official start of hurricane season, because it is still pretty seldom that a hurricane forms outside hurricane season (see the First Storm of the Season page, hmmm, I really have to update that with more recent data). -Gert

Wednesday, May 13, 2020 07:40AM EDT - It's that time again!

Good morning!

Back in the saddle for another installment of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I hope everyone is getting prepared for this season, forecast to be an unusually active period. On top of the Covid-19 virus which the world is rightly focused on, we cannot forget what possibilities loom ahead the next 6 months. Plus, it might start early with a subtropical system, given a high (70%) chance of forming somewhere around or north of the Bahamas this weekend. If it does develop, which would be more sub tropical than tropical characteristic wise with a cold core, then it's name would be Arthur. Note that these systems were not even named until about 2002 by the NHC or even tracked by the NHC until the 70's.

The major contributing ingredient for this possible development will not come from the south east or the east but rather from the far west initially. Florida, in a good deal of drought, could use a rainmaking system like this, but alas it looks like the Bahamas will be the beneficiary although South Florida could get some of these effects. Gusty winds, maybe some flooding and heavy rain is probable in the Bahamas as this system will move quickly towards the NE and away from the east coast of the US.

The official start of the season in the Atlantic is June 1 while the East Pacific season starts on May 15th. Currently, a soon to be typhoon named Vongfong, is about to cause wind damage and flooding in the central and northern islands of the Phillipines while potential development, brewing for over a week, is possible in the Bay of Bengal. As Gert shared, some of these names are eerily familiar. Bertha is one I know well as she visitedÂthe Virgin Islands a mere 10 months after Cat 3 Marilyn's destructive nighttime assault. While Bertha was only a Cat 1 at the time, the winds and rain only compounded the misery of rebuilding after Marilyn.Â

May is National Mental Health Awareness month and we all are dealing with the stress and fear of Covid -19 both mentally, physically and financially. Please prepare now if possible for this upcoming hurricane season as no one needs the worry of a double whammy of hurricanes and the virus. If your prepared, then your mental health anyway will be in a much better position to deal with the event if manifested.

Take care, be safe and well, and prepare.

Dave

Tuesday, May 12, 2020 15:11PM PDT - Almost time...
It is kind of hard to focus on with COVID-19, but the official start of Atlantic Hurricane Season is only a few weeks away... I just made my website ready for the 2020 season, which always involves moving around lots of files, updating webpages and scripts, etc., etc... Hopefully all will still work... Now is a good time for you as well to start planning for the next season (if you are allowed to go to the store...).

The new names are posted above. The names repeat every six years. Remarkable storm names are retired, but since 2014 was a quiet season, none were taken of the list. Although some names, like Arthur, Berth, Dolly and Edouard sound eerily familiar from previous seasons... -Gert

Monday, April 27, 2020 12:00PM PDT - Look, no shadow!
Not hurricane related, but since most of us are sheltering in place something fun to observe! Chris Bolt (Hogan) on Grenada told me that it is that time of the year that the sun is directly above us, so it will not cast a shadow! The date and time (not exactly at noon) that it will happen depends on the island. For some it has already passed, but it should still be pretty close. Hogan made a list that Jurgen on Barbados posted yesterday.

The no shadow effect should make for some interesting pictures. See for example the Pringles can below with no shadow made by Hogan. Jurgen posted some on the Barbados page as well. Since we are all spending a lot of time at home now, maybe a fun thing to do is make a creative picture and post it (or send to me if you are not a correspondent)! Make sure that your object or whatever is on a level surface.

If your island is not listed you can follow Hogan's directions below to find the exact date/time for you:
Use the Heavens Above website: Select your Location
Click on 'Sun' and look at Maximum Altitude, then change the date until you see the figure in the altitude column get as close to 90 as possible.
This is also a good website if you want to see the International Space Station go over; on the main page click on Satellites - ISS. Lots of other useful info too.

Enjoy, looking forward to see some creative photos! -Gert

No Shadow!

Thursday, April 2, 2020 11:50AM PDT - Above average season expected
First of all, hope you are all doing well with regards to the COVID-19 global crisis. Social (or better physical) distancing is the keyword these days. This is of extreme importance in order to flatten the curve so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed. It might seem silly if you don't know anyone who has the virus, but models really show that it works. Don't do it just for yourself, but think of others. You could make other people sick just by going out and about.
In any case, just 2 more months before Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts. Today the first of their quantitative hurricane forecasts was published online by Klotzback et al. from Colorado State University. It seems that we are in for an above average season... They expect a total of 16 named storms (12.1 is normal), 8 hurricanes (6.4 is normal) and 4 major hurricanes (2.7 is normal). The chance of at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 58%. Normal is 42%. The state of ENSO (El Nino vs. La Nina) is always important for us. El Nino conditions usually means a slow season, and La Nina will be more busy. Now it looks like ENSO conditions won't be either, or maybe a weak La Nina. The big driver this year seems to be the higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
Some recent analog years (years with similar ocean and atmospheric conditions) are 1996 and 2008. Looking through the archive I remember for 1996 Bertha and Hortense and for 2008 Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Paloma. This might of course be totally different from your perspective... In any case, as I always say, one hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season. Always try to be prepared as best as you can.... -Gert

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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