Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Ernesto
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:45 UTC, 23 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Ernesto tools:
99L Invest:

Thursday, August 16, 2018 11:01AM EDT - 99L

Good morning!

I thought I had sent this early this morning but here it sits in my draft pile. Ooops! Sending now.

It has been a while since my last post, partly because of a lack of activity in the Atlantic to even ponder about. That's the good news. However, it is about that time we historically see an uptick in activity and that is going to happen soon. Hurricane Beryl started things off in rapid fashionÂbut then the Saharan Dust Layer aka SAL, along with cooler than normal SST's, combined with that omnipresent wind shear to put a clamp down on Atlantic Basin development. The GOMEX aka Gulf of Mexico has plenty of heat contentÂto play with but wind shear and lack of opportunity has clamped that as well.

So, while sub tropical Ernesto makes a beeline towards Ireland and the UK from the Central Atlantic, we in the Caribbean and the Atlantic are staring at newly designated invest 99L, located about 900 miles to the east of the lower Windward Island chain or about 790 miles east southeast of Barbados.

99L does have a slight chance of development as it approaches the lower Windwards and Barbados but it's broadness plus a healthy ingestation of dry air and dust should limit it's potential for now. In addition, as it is below 10N, 99L is unable to take advantage of the earths spin, also know as the Coriolis effect which would enhance it's storm structure. Current consensus forecast track of this poorly defined system takes it's passage through the island change anywhere from St. Vincent and the Grenadines south to Trinidad and Tobago. Look for squally weather and some needed rain.

Down the road things might get a bit more interesting in the Western Caribbean but first, itÂmust survive the Eastern Caribbean graveyard. The next 4-6 weeks look to be heating up with potentialÂwith the Gulf of Mexico looking particularly vulnerable.ÂNevertheless, wherever you are, be prepared!!ÂWe have the active part of the season just ahead!

Dave

ÂÂ

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Wednesday, August 15, 2018 06:57AM PDT - Number Five
Subtropical depression number Five formed about a thousand miles to the east northeast of Bermuda. Another one in the Northern Atlantic. No threat to (is)land. It might become a tropical storm (Ernesto) soon though. It is on the way to Ireland, but not sure what form it is if/once it arrives there. -Gert

Tuesday, August 7, 2018 08:29AM PDT - Debby
Uh, oh, did I jinx it? Yesterday I wrote how we hadn't posted since July 8 because there was nothing to report. Now we have (sub) tropical storm Debby. But don't worry, this one is high up in the North Atlantic, no threat to the islands or actual any land at all! Debby should be short lived (2 days) as well. We like fish storms like these! -Gert

Monday, August 6, 2018 10:25AM PDT - Below normal season?
The last post here on the main page was from July 8. Nice that there was nothing to report! A few days ago an updated hurricane forecast was issued by Klotzbach et al at Colorado State University. They still expect a below normal season with a total of 12 tropical storms (we have had 3 already), 5 hurricanes (we have had 2) and 1 major hurricane. The probability of at least one major hurricane tracking anywhere into the Caribbean Sea is 28% ('normal' is 42%). The lower expected activity is mainly due to cooler Atlantic waters and an about 55% chance of an El Nino developing in September. Let's hope it holds true, but remember, just one major hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season. So still be prepared, you never know. -Gert

Sunday, July 8, 2018 08:49AM EDT - 1 Up and 1 down

Good morning,

While beautiful weather is here in central Pennsylvania, the same cannot be said off the coast of the Carolinas and soon, the mid to northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Closest to home, we have TS Beryl, once the Atlantics first hurricane of the 2018 season. About 190 miles ENE of Barbados as of 8 am this morning, the second smallest TS on record in the Atlantic basin is moving at a motivated 20 mph towards the WNW putting it on a collision course with Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique. With wind shear increasing ahead plus a healthy ingestation of dry Saharan dust to it's north, TS Beryl will be on life support very soon. Its anticipated to drop to a TD just before tonight or after passing through the island chain. The islands will see some gusty, squally rains and wind gusts to maybe 50 mphÂwith accumulations in isolated spots of 4-6 inches but at her current forward speed, these spots should be a rarity. Regardless, these islands do not need Beryl as recovering from Hurricane Irma has been a slow progression. Some have no power still nor roofs. Further down the line, St. Croix will be the closest to Beryl's core, about 60 miles with again, squally and gusty rains and winds. Puerto Rico's SW coast and Hispaniola might see higher rain accumulations as well. By then, Beryl should have been disconnected from life support and officially become a remnant low of her former self.

Farther out east, a new wave have fell off the African continent drawing scant attention with Beryl and Chris in the picture already. Later on this one around 14W.

Off the Carolinas, about 150 milesÂsouth of Cape Hatteras lies a lurking TS named Chris. Set to sit and spin for a few days due to weak, almost non existent steering currents, Chris is eventually expected to be swept up by a mid week trough and carried outÂto the Canadian Maritimes possibly affecting Halifax and St. Johns with rains saved for a later date with the UK. Main effects continue for the Carolinas in the form of increasing beach erosion, strong dangerous rip currents and scattered pockets of rain. At this time, no US landfalls are predicted although there are a couple spaghetti models making landfall around Rhode Island and Boston. These are in the 1-3% category.

Either way, for both of these systems, it's a good time to get your seasonal hurricane preparations up to speed.ÂThrow out the old stuff expired from last years hurricane kit. Update with fresh. Even bottled water goes stale.

DaveÂ

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles northwest of the
Azores.

A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and significant development of this system is not
anticipated.  This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph
and is forecast to move through the Windward Islands on Saturday,
where it could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Bonaire [Aug 17 5:51]
- St.Croix [Aug 16 21:56]
- Grenada [Aug 16 7:57]
- Nevis [Aug 15 23:45]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 15 7:41]
- St.Thomas [Aug 14 20:35]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 13 7:01]
- St.Lucia [Aug 12 11:54]
- Belize [Aug 9 8:40]
- Antigua [Aug 8 7:41]
- Anguilla [Aug 8 6:28]
- Haiti [Aug 6 13:57]
- Dominica [Jul 13 13:00]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- St.John [Jul 9 9:45]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 9 9:11]
- Martinique [Jul 9 7:27]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
- Barbados [Jul 9 4:50]
- Montserrat [Jul 8 20:19]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 10 23:25]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert