Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good evening,

It has been a quiet, dusty, dry (as far as rain goes) and droughty period for the last few months as only the southern Windwards have received at least some beneficial rains while north of those have only received what I call nuisance showers. Puerto Rico has a water emergency on its hands but many of the resorts for tourists are not on the dry side. It's the populace.

The dynamic duo of Saharan Dust combined with a strengthening El Nino have combined to crush even the thought of tropical formation in this earliest part of the tropical season. Very dry air, even though the temperatures have been hot and humidity seems high, which it is not, combined with high wind shear has been at its suppressive best so far. A slight change over the next two weeks may be in the works though.

The low riders, sneaking in below the dust layer aka SAL, have started to ramp up operations. So have the waves marching across the African continent as if, safety in numbers with overwhelming force, can overcome the Atlantic obstacles ahead.

The vanguard wave has caught the eye of the NHC as a small possibility of development as it is below most of the dust but also below most of the effects of the seriously effective wind shear. This one is expected to follow its fine line low ride all the way through the lower Windwards. Might be something to watch after its passage through the Eastern Caribbean.

The one immediately behind it is forecast by models to go its own way and rise in the days ahead towards the eastern Leewards and eventually recurve to be a fish entity. I do not say storm as too early to predict but it would be very beneficial to at least get some decent, soaking, cistern filling rains out of it. Time will tell here but significant development is like vech and vech nachi, slim and none. Regardless, expected to recurve to the central Atlantic as a fish storm with a possibility of development once out of wind shear and dust belt range.

Another large wave is getting ready to fall off the African coast as that side is ramping up for an assault on the Atlantic Basin. Once the dust subsides in intensity, higher SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) have been known in recent years to counteract the effects of windshear thereby allowing tropical development despite said wind shears best efforts. There are quite a few waves in line and each one further assists, albeit marginally but growing in measure, to moisten the atmosphere with each progression across the Atlantic, paving the wave for their brethren waves following.

Meanwhile, in the short term, the GOMEX (aka GOA) and the east coast of the US, remain the only real possible hot spots. Homegrown was shared a few posts ago and we have already seen that manifested with Arthur and Bertha. The Gulf is ripe for the picking temperature wise with a quickly strengthening system leaving little time for prep, evacuation if necessary, and provisioning.

The east Pacific has three potential areas with evil intentions to the SE of the Hawaiian Islands while long lived, and slow moving Typhoon Dolphin, with Cat 2 equivalent wind speeds, is beating up on Okinawa before a Chinese mainland late night dinner interruption.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. Complacency is not a good thing.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development is possible during the early to middle part of next week while the disturbance moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are expected to become much less conducive for development later in the week when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Gradual development will be possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week while the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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