Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Remnants of Dolly
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (04:20 UTC, 17 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Thursday, August 27, 2026 21:49PM EDT - TS Dolly

Good evening,

While the Eastern Pacific is rife with action and Hawaii taking the
brunt of most of that action, the Atlantic, GOM/GOA and Caribbean Sea
have been experiencing a welcome dormant scenario so far this 2026
Atlantic hurricane season which we all in this region appreciate. This
is due to the strengthening El Nino producing prolific wind shear,
cooler than average Atlantic SST's, and our favorite protector, the
good old reliable, and omnipresent Saharan Dust Layer.

The downside to all these factors is a persistent drought from the mid
Windwards up to the Greater Antilles. Puerto Rico is especially bereft
of Agua aka water with rationing in effect for almost 1/2 million
residents.The DR, US and British Virgins along with Antigua and the
rest of the Leewards are experiencing drought in various phases. The
lower Windwards have been the beneficiaries of low riding waves, just
below the Saharan Dust reach and out of the claws of the wind shear.
However, this is about to "possibly" change but not end the drought in
the northeastern sector completely.

TS Dolly, materializing right after Dolly Partons passing, which,
while a major coincidence, is not a planned name event as names for
storms are recycled every 6 years. The timing is impeccable I must
say. I also hope TS Dolly is as gentle and generous with rain only as
Dolly Parton was with her love of humanity and philanthropy.

Currently Dolly has a chance to slightly strengthen but that window is
closing rapidly as wind shear and dry air are conspiring to instigate
her demise before she reaches the Lesser Antilles. However, there will
be residual effects as in possible flash flooding due to the hard
packed, drought ridden grounds and steep terrain, coastal flooding,
rip currents, intermittent power outages which happen anyway, and high
offshore seas.

Models are in good agreement as to the track although a slight
deviation to the north will lessen all the above effects while a
deviation to the south will enhance said effects. A stronger system
will recurve before the islands due to the steering currents and the
strength of the system but Dolly is expected to weaken upon approach,
possibly back into a strong tropical wave. Thank you dust and wind
shear. Dolly could still exceed expectations so please, prepare
regardless. Weather is an inexact science and we have seen previous
systems overcome the obvious obstacles, over achieve, and surprise.
Err on the side of caution.

After passing the islands, regenesis is a small possibility due to
less wind shear and dust plus warmer SST's. Just something for the
Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and Florida to be aware of. Depends on her
strength upon exiting the NE islands.

Behind Dolly, there are waves lined up, per usual at this time of
year. There are a couple who bode a vigilant eye, with the next one on
the list. Dolly has paved the way, albeit slightly by moistening up
the environment so time will tell.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. There's a lot of season left and the
meat of the season is at hand.

Dave

Tuesday, August 25, 2026 14:45PM PDT - Invest 96L

The wave that I mentioned earlier has come off the African coast and has become our first possible Cape Verde storm of the season. Right now it is called Invest 96L. It is still a long way from the islands with a possible arrival for the northeastern islands on Sunday/Monday.

Models don't really agree yet on what will happen (see multi-model grand ensemble below). Those that predict a stronger storm will have it veer more to the north, moving the system just north of the islands (but be on alert Bermuda). The ones that predict a weaker system have it track more to the south. Right now tracks are trending southwards, so I guess to less intense development.

Squinting my eyes at the intensity guidance plots tells me that most models keep the system at just a tropical depression, but some see a Category 1 hurricane form... One of the better performing models, Google's Deepmind AI model, sees it become something when it is getting close to the Turks&Caicos and Bahamas. It is all still a little early to tell, if we get rain, rain+wind, or none... Stay tuned! -Gert

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