Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good evening,

Well, we finally will have the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season albeit very late as in record time late. Due to Super El Nino's wind shear effects plus our other protector, the Saharan Dust Layer aka SAL, the Atlantic has been in a coma for most of the year and continues to be, for now. More on the Atlantic in a bit but first, all eyes are on TS Isaias.

The "I" storms are the most retired Atlantic hurricane names for a good reason. They usually happen during the peak or just after the peak of the season when almost all factors come together to create a vicious hurricane creating death and destruction in the uber millions above many of the others. While unlikely Isaias will reach that threshold, never say never.

A sprawling, tilted system due to moderate SW windshear, said windshear is not expected to significantly affect her attempts at strengthening into a high end Cat 2 at the least while a mid Cat 3 is a distinct possibility. Untapped, deep warmer than average gulf waters, a humid air mass, plus an eddy loop encounter are the chief factors. Soon to be hurricane Isaias is expected to go over this pocket of hotter than the waters around it stretching deeper into the depths thus adding rocket fuel to the system traversing the loop. These have been known to lead to rapid intensification although not an expected scenario at this time.

Watches and warnings are no stranger to the northern Gulf coast and more expected as the night goes on. Storm surge and winds on approach and landfall will be the biggest threats along with the usual complement of isolated tornadoes and power outages, some which could be of long duration but a lot shorter than we have here in the Caribbean.

A little wobble to the left or right will make a huge difference in the landfall effects. If she wobbles west, it should arrive as a weaker storm. If it wobbles east, then expect a stronger impact. Regardless, get your preparations completed by tomorrow afternoon or evening.

All quiet on the Eastern Front in the Atlantic Basin for most of 2026 with several short lived puffs arising on the fish storm side. TS Fay, tried real hard to become the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year but, after almost disappearing then rising like the Phoenix to reappear, finally met her demise. Not for lack of trying though. Post season analysis might show she actually attained a 6 hour period of hurricane status bt that we will find out in the months ahead.

The dust has finally abated although ligering pockets exist per usual. That leaves wind shear as our only friend in the Atlantic for now. Several healthy waves are still lined up ready to splash. Mostly low riders. Would not be surprised to have a late season encounter. It's not over until it's over.

Prayers to St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Stay safe, prepared and vigilant.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located over the north-central Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Brown

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