Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

| home | satellite | tools | pleas for help | guide | climatology | archive

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred | Alpha | Beta | Gamma | Delta |

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Beta
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (09:40 UTC, 29 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Beta tools:

Tuesday, September 22, 2020 11:26AM PDT - Congratulations
First, on behalf of the whole Caribbean Hurricane Network team, congratulations SuperDave and Melody on your wedding! We wish you a happy and fun life together, without any big storms!

In spite of 3 active storms, indeed, as Dave wrote yesterday, things are quiet for us! Bermuda did well when Teddy passed by, Paulette (Bermuda's visitor from last week) reappeared south of the Azores is weakening right now. However, Beta is still drenching the Gulf Coast and Teddy is on its way to Nova Scotia where it will according to the advisories bring 'destructive waves, heavy rain and strong winds'. Hopefully this was 'it' for the season! -Gert

Monday, September 21, 2020 09:52AM EDT - Slowing down a bit?

Good morning all!

The top story this morning is I got married to the most beautiful woman, the love of my life, Melody Beers on Saturday in South Waverly village, Sayre Pa. Thats why I've been MIA the last few days and Gert has posted regularly to keep you informed. Thank you Gert!! Now back to our regularly scheduled programming! lol

Things have quieted down from the last two weeks mayhem in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico however, there are still menacing threats in each arena. The only real quiet area is the Caribbean itself, for now.

Hurricane Teddy: Still not playing nice but up till now was only a threat to the fishes and shipping. Now on a brush by course to Bermuda, which was already blasted by Hurricane Paulette, Teddy has been producing massive waves as a Cat 2 hurricane, down from a major hurricane just a short while ago. Teddy, on its blow by will produce tropical storm conditions but will be nothing like hurricane Paulette's bashing. Most in Bermuda have provisions left and have also left their properties boarded up so Teddy's island impacts should be minimal with the exception of the shoreline beating. The US east coast will also be impacted by Teddy trek north with swells and rip current risks from Nova Scotia to Florida. Speaking of Nova Scotia, TS warnings are up for them as Teddy is still forecast to be a 45mph TS upon arrival.

TS Beta: Yes we dipped into the Greek alphabet. How far is yet to be determined. Zeta in 2005 was the farthest previously. I feel we will go a bit farther this year. Small Beta is supposed to make landfall around 1 am this morning as a weakened TS somewhere btw Port O'Connor and Galveston as a 50mph storm. Making a right turn Clyde move, Beta's main threats will be storm surge and heavy rains in Texas and Louisiana as it slogs along slowly towards its demise in Mississippi on Friday. Sadly, this will also drop drenching rains on areas devastated by Hurricane Sally.

Wilfred: Has dissipated in the MDR (Main Development Region) and is not expected to regenerate.

Post tropical cyclone Paulette: The Phoenix may arise yet as Paulette, formerly a formidable hurricane which ravaged Bermuda, has done a loop de loop and is now heading east about 10-15 mph with a 60% chance of regeneration! Time will tell with potential tracks unsure depending upon its potential resurrection.

Tropical waves are still dropping off the coast of Africa and the way this year has been all around, be prepared for more activity as we head into October and November.

Be safe all and stay prepared!

Dave

Sunday, September 20, 2020 14:22PM PDT - Finally going north!
It is great to have these excellent forecast models, otherwise we would have seen the monster storm Teddy going straight for Bermuda. And it was until just recently. After doing another little wobble to the west it is finally turning north. I know, the models told us so, but still, I have to actually see it before I believe it!

Teddy has weakened to a Category 2 storm, packing 105 mph winds, because it is following Paulette's path from last week, which has cooled the ocean. It doesn't look as scary any more as yesterday, however, it is a large storm. Even though the closest point of approach with Bermuda is about 110 miles, the island will still feel tropical storm winds, starting later tonight.

Elsewhere... Wilfred is doing what it is supposed to be doing... now barely a tropical depression. On the other hand Beta is still threatening the Gulf Coast. This slow moving storm is expected to dump a foot or more locally in Texas and Louisiana. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, September 19, 2020 13:19PM PDT - Teddy <--> Bermuda
There are currently four storms. Yesterday being a unbelievable day with three storms being named and thereby running out of names! Teddy is now a Category 3 storm. It is a formidable storm, as can be seen from the picture below, showing the closest point of approach with Bermuda. The CPA has increased again to 170 miles and will be reached Monday around 6AM. Although hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, tropical storm force extend outward up to 230 miles, so right now well within the 170 miles of the closest point of approach with Bermuda. The windfield also should increase more on Sunday, so Bermuda should expect tropical storm force winds for sure. They had Paulette just last week (it feels a lot longer ago), with the eye moving over the island. This one should stay further away. But still, be prepared! 13:45PM update: after writing this, a new advisory came out. Teddy's eye did a little jog to the west (=closer to Bermuda). The CPA is now 140 miles...

Other storms... the forecast track of Wilfred has changed, and it is now heading towards the islands after all. However, it should fall apart and become 'just' a wave about 800 miles before it even gets there. Beta is still in the Gulf, it is only 'moving' at 2 mph, so will produce dangerous storm surge and a lot of rain. Alpha is falling apart over Portugal. And finally, not listed above, the low that was Paulette, might become Paulette again! It is currently south of the Azores and moving east (so not towards us). It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical storm again. Not sure how they are going to name the advisories for it, since the advisory storm number (2) is currently taken by Beta (the NHC rotates the advisory numbers over 5 storms, for example the public advisory is named WTNT32, where the '2' denotes the storm number, and only the numbers 1-5 are used). Not my worry, they will figure it out. OK, stay safe everyone! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach of Teddy with Bermuda - - -

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta, centered inland over northern Alabama.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. 

$$
Forecaster Berg
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

- - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - -
Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents.


   stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations   
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -


stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
pairNetworks

Support stormCARIB
-- Donations needed --

Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Sep 24 23:07]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 24 12:40]
- St.Thomas [Sep 24 11:42]
- Barbados [Sep 23 9:10]
- Bermuda [Sep 22 12:21]
- Grenada [Sep 21 7:53]
- Antigua [Sep 20 18:24]
- Nevis [Sep 19 7:14]
- Dominica [Sep 19 1:13]
- Montserrat [Sep 15 19:40]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 14 13:07]
- Florida Keys [Sep 12 17:51]
- Belize [Sep 2 21:58]
- Jamaica [Sep 2 13:05]
- St.Lucia [Aug 30 14:19]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 26 13:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 25 2:39]
- Haiti [Aug 24 11:43]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 23 18:28]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 23 12:45]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 22 15:42]
- St.John [Aug 22 14:46]
- Bahamas [Aug 3 19:26]
- Bonaire [Jul 31 18:49]
- Anguilla [Jul 29 12:15]
- Martinique [Jul 29 11:53]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


GoBeach Vacations
- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -
www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert