Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Arlene
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:10 UTC, 11 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Saturday, June 3, 2023 08:24AM EDT - Defiant Arlene

Good morning all,

Just an update on TS Arlene who is defying the odds remaining a low grade tropical storm in the face of high wind shear while also practically surrounded by very dry air. However, her survival is coming to an end today as a named storm as she is entering an area of higher wind shear while being shoved SSE (Very weird direction for a tropical system in the GOMEX and generating quite the conversation on social media) by upper level winds. Actually the social media conversation is good, meaning some are paying attention to this early season storm.

As Arlene continues her awkward journey, she could actually make a US landfall before being relegated to TD status by passing over the Dry Tortugas west of Key West. That will remain to be seen since, moving at a paltry 9 miles an hour, her chances of lasting that long as a named storm are minimal but not impossible. She has already defied the odds with the help of warmer SST's to the south of her formation.

The Keys, South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas and maybe even droughty Jamaica will see between 1-5 inches as her remnants move SE later today. Isolated flash flooding will be a problem while her wind field shrinks.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet and expected to stay so for the next week at least. In the Pacific, Guam is still mostly without power after powerful storm Mawar made an uninvited visit over a week ago and is now a heavy rainmaking TS over central Japan creating flooding and landslides with one confirmed death at this time.

Location, Location, Location, is a business tried and true constant. Preparation, Preparation, Preparation is a hurricane season constant. Never too early.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave.

Thursday, June 1, 2023 19:19PM PDT - Start of 2023 Season

Well, it is June 1, that means the official start of a new season. Welcome back for the 28th (!) season that we are doing this! According to multiple seasonal forecasts (see earlier posts) this year is expected to be below normal. The main reason is the development of an El Nino event in the Pacific. This enhances wind shear above the Atlantic (everything is connected), which inhibits hurricane strengthening. So let's hope that holds true. Sea surface temperatures are well above normal though (see bottom image on the satellite imagery page), and since hurricanes get their energy from the heat in the ocean that might counteract some of the El Nino effects...

Right now we have a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is not moving much, and with wind shear ahead it is not expected to live long. This is actually the second cyclone of the season. What happened to number One you might ask... Apparently that honor goes to a system back in January between the States and Bermuda. The storm, named invest 90L at that time, made actually landfall in Nova Scotia. A post-storm analysis concluded that this system had subtropical characteristics and was thus 'upgraded' to storm number One.

This early in the season we have to look at the Gulf of Mexico, eastern Central America and east of Florida for storm development. Usually not too much going on. See the image below of storm origins in the month of June from 1944-2019 taken from the climatology section.

I hope everyone is well prepared, or getting there. Even though it is forecast to be a below normal season, just one hurricane on your doorstep can be catastrophic... Preparation is key! Stay safe everybody! -Gert

- - - Storm origins June (1944-2019) - - -

Saturday, May 27, 2023 08:41AM EDT - 2023 Atlantic season on the doorstep

Good morning all,

With the 2023 start of the hurricane season knocking on the door, we are all thankful for a non early season start so far. May sometimes spins up a few early season surprises but looks like we will have a storm free pre-season.

A non tropical system off the coast of the Carolinas will plow west into the mainland today bringing no development with it while holiday plans in that area are sure to be dampened considerably. Elsewhere a large area of moisture will settle over the islands helping to further alleviate the seasonal dry season that is traditional before May. No development here as well.

Meanwhile the Pacific season starts two weeks earlier and has not failed to impress already with now Super Typhoon Mawar, a Cat 5 monster, barrelling towards Taiwan and eventually turning towards the Philippines and Japan albeit weaker. The US territory of Guam received major damage but no deaths or serious injuries reported as of yet. The eye passed 15 miles to the north as a weaker storm than upon approach as Mawar underwent an ERC or eyewall replacement cycle which dropped top wind speeds down to 130 mph thus sparing a Cat 5 direct hit. Assessments are still underway as 98% of the island lost power. The WPAC also looks favorable for more strong storm activity in June.

Strong El Nino years tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation and this season is expected to experience one by the heart of it. Counteracting that is warmer than average SST or sea surface temperatures, the fuel for the storms. Let's hope El Nino wins out. Remember though, it only takes one.

The time is now to prepare and review your hurricane plans, evacuation routes and supplies. Don't wait until it's too late.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Sunday, May 14, 2023 15:03PM PDT - Cyclone Mocha, North Indian Ocean’s strongest storm on record, hits Myanmar

Ugh, not looking good for Myanmar. Cyclone Mocha made landfall in Myanmar as a Category 4 with 155 mph winds. Just 8 hours before it peaked at 175 mph winds, a North Indian Ocean record! Same as Maria and similar to Irma (Irma maxed out at 180 mph). Read more on Jeff Masters' blog at Yale Climate Connections. -Gert

Friday, April 14, 2023 10:05AM PDT - Another forecast

Klotzbach et al at Colorado State issued their first forecast for the season. They also anticipate a (slightly) below average season. Although sea surface temperature are above normal, a 'robust' El Nino is expected to develop, which will make up for the higher SSTs. However, if no El Nino develops than we might be in for a busy season... Having said that, forecasts these early in the season are not that good, so we shouldn't put too much faith in them. It's still nice to read though that it might not be a too busy season, just like Tropical Storm Risk forecasted (see post below). However, we all know, just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil the whole season... We have to prepare, regardless of forecasts. Find the full forecast here and a nice discussion by Yale Climate Connections (Jeff Masters) here. -Gert

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