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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (21:30 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

97L Invest:

Saturday, August 3, 2019 20:07PM EDT - The fizzling 96L

Good Saturday evening,

The imposter, 96L, is still lurking off to the east of the Eastern Caribbean Islands but the earlier menacing gestures of an early season named system generated from the Cabo Verde Islands area have diminished significantly in the last few days. The upper level shearing low, aka TUTT, located just north of the NE Caribbean Islands, with a dash of Saharan Dust drying out the atmosphere, has contributed to the gradual reduction of percentages of development from the NHC. The models concur. But.....

Large, elongated and discombobulated, 96L still does have a small chance of at least reaching TD status, according to about 50% of the model ensembles, if it can get it's act together but the window is closing rapidly. If it does reach that status, it will be short lived. Still, Tuesday into Thursday widespread showers, thunderstorms, rough seas and gusty winds will be the menu much like 95L before it.

Meanwhile, the wave train continues behind 96L so a wetter pattern will continue the next few weeks with cyclogenesis conditions not expected to manifest themselves until the last week of August. Will it be a quiet season this year or will the season suddenly explode with activity and possible calamity? It will be interesting and problematic at the same time. Interesting to see how it all pans out. Problematic if just one storm is the calamity. After all, it does, only take one.

Be safe. Be prepared.Â

Have a good weekend everyone!

Dave



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Friday, August 2, 2019 14:29PM PDT - 96L
Dave forecasted the initiation of Invest 96L last Tuesday. Things are looking a bit better now. That is, less threatening. It is still a few days away, and it could still become Tropical Storm Chantal before it reaches the islands in 3-4 days or so, but it is not likely to reach hurricane strength in the near future. Below a snippet from the Tropical Weather Discussion regarding 96L:
Looking ahead, this wave will
continue to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could
form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week. Upper-
level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development
as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday into Wed.

Check also the track forecast from ral.ucar.edu and accompanying intensity guidance above for the latest developments. Regardless what I say here, we still need to track this one, because you never know... -Gert

Tuesday, July 30, 2019 21:08PM EDT - 96L soon

Good evening all,

It has been a while and I hope you are well, and ready.

While the tropical Pacific is getting all the attention at the moment, which is usually the case at this time of the year, the tropical Atlantic and GOM is starting to wake up from it's spring slumber, post Hurricane Barry. Hurricanes Erick and Flossie will menace Hawaii with Erick the more formidable of the two and the vanguard of both with most models forecasting him to stay to the south and basically bashing the southern coasts with high surf and erosion. Flossie, hundreds of miles behind on his coattails, is expected to weaken upon approach as most do from this direction but also forecast to become the closer encounter of the two systems. I expect Flossie to surprise: either a dramatic re-curve close to Hawaii or, at a minimum, a good TS lashing directly. Time will tell. Now to our arena of the tropics where time will tell as well on our two waves of interest with a non performer in the middle.Â

95L. Quite the nuisance especially in eastern Puerto Rico with flooding, is broad in scope with no closed circulation at any level and about to tangle with the Dominican Republics mountainous eastern flank. While dropping some needed rainfall on the Virgin Islands, it has soaked east and southern parts of Puerto Rico with almost 8 inches of precipitation and there is more on the way. Once it makes it's way to the Florida Straits and southern Bahamas, it will have a narrow window for development before being carried off by an approaching front. In the meantime, rains and squalls will affect the DR, Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and make Florida's weekend from Friday through Monday wet and rough, especially on the east coast with high surf and rip currents. Hopefully, the turtle nests which have been laid already are far enough out of the surfs range as this is looking to be a record breaking turtle nesting season from Florida to NC.Â

The non performer in the middle. Almost hidden behind 95L, this one will just contribute to the current shower and thunderstorm activity while enhancing the flooding potential in Puerto Rico along with some rough seas and surf.Â

96L. An early, for season, potential Cabo Verde storm looking to make a name for itself, 96L will be lurking for the next few days fighting the SAL to the north and relatively cool, under 80 degrees F waters ahead of it while chugging ahead at a steady 15 mph clip. By Friday to Saturday, the dry air intrusion will lessen (less dust), wind shear will be more friendly, and sea surface temperatures, aka SST's, will be above the heat engine's 80 degree threshold which is considered the minimum for cyclogenesis although it has happened below that metric a few times in the past.Â

It's too early at the moment to obviously make concrete predictions on where, how big, what and will occur. However, this might turn in to a wake up call for the Eastern Caribbean if conditions pull themselves together in a few days. A TD, TS or another surprise is not off the table so just get prepared if you haven't as season is heating up for real. Preparation is the key to it all. I'll have more as the week moves on. Be safe!

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system near the North Carolina Outer Banks is moving
into the Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development while the system moves
northeastward to east-northeastward, and away from the U.S. east
coast, during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 18 15:49]
- Grenada [Aug 18 6:11]
- St.Croix [Aug 17 23:35]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 17 9:28]
- St.Lucia [Aug 16 7:43]
- Nevis [Aug 15 11:53]
- Dominica [Aug 8 15:11]
- Barbados [Aug 4 11:29]
- St.Thomas [Aug 4 7:23]
- Antigua [Aug 4 7:15]
- St.John [Aug 2 21:05]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 1 9:36]
- Anguilla [Jul 31 14:55]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 31 0:16]
- Montserrat [Jul 13 21:10]
- Belize [Jun 30 9:46]
- Haiti [May 22 11:06]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert