Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (19:40 UTC, 15 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Wednesday, August 5, 2026 10:25AM PDT - Hurricane Season Forecast

Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University issued their final forecast for the 2026 season. From their abstract: "We have maintained our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast for a well belownormal season. El Niño conditions are likely to continue to intensify over the next few months. We are extremely confident that we will have a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are slightly above their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving very high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean..

They conclude with these wise words: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.. Indeed, a well below average season doesn't mean that no hurricanes will form. They still predict 9 tropical storms (we had 2, so 7 more, 14.4 is normal), 4 hurricanes (we had 0 so far, 7.2 is normal) and 1 major hurricane (3.2 is normal). The probability for at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a large area) is 17% (47% is normal). A relative small chance, but there's a chance... Stay safe and enjoy the quiet conditions for the time being, although I guess we could use some rain! -Gert

Tuesday, August 4, 2026 13:34PM PDT - The Sargassum Belt

The tropical weather outlook below states "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days", let's keep it that way. Indeed, it has been a very slow start of the season, thanks to our friend El Nino. So we can talk about other things! I saw this article on NASA's Earth Observatory titled Sizing Up the Sargassum Belt. It shows cool images (see one below) from the OCI sensor on the new PACE satellite of the distribution of Sargassum in the Atlantic, moving into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Sargassum is 'good' out in the ocean, providing habitat to many species, but we all know what it smells like when it ends up near-shore or on our beaches, not so good... Last year was a record year, this year it almost hit the same high value in June as in 2025, but the Sargassum Watch System indicates that it has already reached its peak with a lower value in July, which apparently is normal (down from 9.0 million metric ton in the Eastern Caribbean in June to 6.2 in July). Hoping for calm seas and clean beaches this year! -Gert

Great Sargassum Belt June 2026 [source: NASA Earth Observatory)

Sunday, July 26, 2026 12:31PM PDT - Hurricane Genevieve and Mexico

In addition to Hawai'i, I have now added locations in Mexico and USA West Coast to the Pacific version of the Closest Point of Approach-tool as well. Almost Category 4 Hurricane Genevieve is roaring 500 miles of the coast of Mexico. Luckily it looks like it will stay well offshore! Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, July 25, 2026 17:18PM PDT - Hurricane Fausto and Hawai'i

Just a quick update for the people threatened by Pacific Hurricane Fausto. I have just created a closest point of approach calculator the Hawaiian Islands. Main locations are prefilled, so it should be easy to use by most. If you would like another location added let me know. You can find it at: https://stormcarib.com/closest_pac1.htm. Looks like it is weakening and going just north of the islands. Hope it stays that way! Stay safe! -Gert

Tuesday, July 21, 2026 08:44AM PDT - Bertha

Tropical Depression 2 strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha just south of the Florida Panhandle. It is not threatening the Caribbean in any way. This is a name a lot of us still remember from back in 1996, the first year I started covering storms. Back then Bertha was 'just' a Category 1, but it hit the year after the islands were still recovering from Luis and Marilyn.

Although sea surface temperatures are plenty warm, this storm is not expected to become a hurricane due to some wind shear and the relative close proximity to land. Although the advisories seem to be most worried about the storm surge, which is understandable since it is moving west towards Louisiana, I think that the main problem will be the rainfall. Bertha is moving at just 3 mph, and we all know how much rain that locally can bring... You can use the tools above to check how close the storm will get to you and at what time. I have listed coordinates of Gulf cities to make it easier for you. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

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