Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
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Active Tropical Systems: Remnants of Fifteen
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (09:40 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Saturday, October 12, 2019 06:33AM PDT - Melissa
- And here we have (sub-)tropical storm Melissa. Sorry, I have not really been keeping track since I arrived on St.Maarten/St.Martin last week (more on that below). Melissa is not a threat to the Caribbean or Bermuda. There are 2 other areas that are being watched, in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and a wave that came off the African coast. Both are unlikely to become anything.
This is the first time I am on the island since Irma (2017). The stories people tell us who went through the storm (and aftermath) are pretty scary. But driving around the island I have been very pleasantly surprised how good the island looks now. There are still some areas where they haven't start rebuilding, like when you drive from Mullet Bay to Cupecoy (Ocean Club, next to Sapphire) and some places on the French side. Orient is now looking good as well, though some places still need a lot of work. Rebuilding on the French side is more difficult because of new rules set in place by the government. The vegetation looks very good. The island is very green. It's a bit warm here today, not much wind, the sea is looking very calm. Time to go swimming at Friar's. -Gert
Wednesday, October 2, 2019 09:57AM PDT - Europe
- With Lorenzo aiming for Ireland, I added a list of some cities in 'coastal' European countries to the closest point of approach tool. Never thought I had to do this. Closest approach with Dublin, Ireland is only 6 miles on Friday. Winds at that time are still expected to be tropical storm force! -Gert
Tuesday, October 1, 2019 18:54PM EDT
- Quiet, for now
Good evening all,
While hurricane Lorenzo races off to a quick date with the Azores (whose wind field is quite prodigious), then to raise havoc with the western coasts of Ireland and the UK, the Caribbean, GOM, and tropical Atlantic are pretty quiet considering the mayhem and chaos of the majority of September. However,.....
October historically, is home to the second "peak" of hurricane season and has been the home of many destructive storms throughout time. Currently, we have a few areas not quite of intense interest to receive an invest designation from the NHC but a % has been assigned showing potential, yet minimal. One is to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula and another is to the north of Hispaniola, both receiving only a 10% chance now through the next 5 days as of now. That can and will change but it's not certain yet which direction that change will entail.Â
Off to the east, we have a few weak waves but the ones that have caught some models attention are still over land that is the African continent. I shared previously the next three weeks could be quite interesting but hoped to be on the wrong side of interesting as in almost boring but with some rainfall. The waves that will be rolling off the African coast will really not get going, if they do, until they pass say 40-45 degrees west with a strong possibility of a mainly westward movement due to a strong ridge forecast to develop and block any thoughts of OTS treks aka fish storm movements.
Now is not the time to let your guard and vigilance down. We still have 8 weeks officially to go.
Be safe, vigilant and prepared!!
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fifteen, located near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.
A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico and the Bay
of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today and move slowly northward. Gradual development is possible,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over
the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 16 4:46]
- St.Croix [Oct 16 0:09]
- Grenada [Oct 15 14:34]
- Antigua [Oct 7 18:23]
- St.Thomas [Oct 7 8:37]
- Nevis [Oct 6 19:52]
- Dominica [Oct 3 23:47]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 25 22:42]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 25 19:09]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 25 11:12]
- Anguilla [Sep 25 9:35]
- St.John [Sep 25 8:03]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 22 18:03]
- Barbados [Sep 22 13:43]
- St.Lucia [Sep 22 5:25]
- Bahamas [Sep 22 4:01]
- Montserrat [Sep 19 21:50]
- Bermuda [Sep 19 20:54]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 9:51]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 3 16:25]
- Martinique [Sep 3 11:08]
- Florida Keys [Sep 2 9:08]
- Belize [Sep 1 13:07]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 29 2:22]
- Haiti [Aug 19 13:55]
- Saba [Aug 19 9:20]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to firstname.lastname@example.org. Gert