Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
|2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harold | Idalia | Jose | Katia | Lee | Margot | Nigel | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney ||
Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Arlene
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:10 UTC, 11 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Saturday, June 3, 2023 08:24AM EDT
- Defiant Arlene
Good morning all,
Just an update on TS Arlene who is defying the odds remaining a low grade tropical storm in the face of high wind shear while also practically surrounded by very dry air. However, her survival is coming to an end today as a named storm as she is entering an area of higher wind shear while being shoved SSE (Very weird direction for a tropical system in the GOMEX and generating quite the conversation on social media) by upper level winds. Actually the social media conversation is good, meaning some are paying attention to this early season storm.
As Arlene continues her awkward journey, she could actually make a US landfall before being relegated to TD status by passing over the Dry Tortugas west of Key West. That will remain to be seen since, moving at a paltry 9 miles an hour, her chances of lasting that long as a named storm are minimal but not impossible. She has already defied the odds with the help of warmer SST's to the south of her formation.
The Keys, South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas and maybe even droughty Jamaica will see between 1-5 inches as her remnants move SE later today. Isolated flash flooding will be a problem while her wind field shrinks.
The rest of the Atlantic is quiet and expected to stay so for the next week at least. In the Pacific, Guam is still mostly without power after powerful storm Mawar made an uninvited visit over a week ago and is now a heavy rainmaking TS over central Japan creating flooding and landslides with one confirmed death at this time.
Location, Location, Location, is a business tried and true constant. Preparation, Preparation, Preparation is a hurricane season constant. Never too early.
Stay safe and prepared!
Thursday, June 1, 2023 19:19PM PDT - Start of 2023 Season
- Well, it is June 1, that means the official start of a new season. Welcome back for the 28th (!) season that we are doing this! According to multiple seasonal forecasts (see earlier posts) this year is expected to be below normal. The main reason is the development of an El Nino event in the Pacific. This enhances wind shear above the Atlantic (everything is connected), which inhibits hurricane strengthening. So let's hope that holds true. Sea surface temperatures are well above normal though (see bottom image on the satellite imagery page), and since hurricanes get their energy from the heat in the ocean that might counteract some of the El Nino effects...
Right now we have a tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is not moving much, and with wind shear ahead it is not expected to live long. This is actually the second cyclone of the season. What happened to number One you might ask... Apparently that honor goes to a system back in January between the States and Bermuda. The storm, named invest 90L at that time, made actually landfall in Nova Scotia. A post-storm analysis concluded that this system had subtropical characteristics and was thus 'upgraded' to storm number One.
This early in the season we have to look at the Gulf of Mexico, eastern Central America and east of Florida for storm development. Usually not too much going on. See the image below of storm origins in the month of June from 1944-2019 taken from the climatology section.
I hope everyone is well prepared, or getting there. Even though it is forecast to be a below normal season, just one hurricane on your doorstep can be catastrophic... Preparation is key! Stay safe everybody! -Gert
|- - - Storm origins June (1944-2019) - - -|
Saturday, May 27, 2023 08:41AM EDT
- 2023 Atlantic season on the doorstep
Good morning all,
With the 2023 start of the hurricane season knocking on the door, we are all thankful for a non early season start so far. May sometimes spins up a few early season surprises but looks like we will have a storm free pre-season.
A non tropical system off the coast of the Carolinas will plow west into the mainland today bringing no development with it while holiday plans in that area are sure to be dampened considerably. Elsewhere a large area of moisture will settle over the islands helping to further alleviate the seasonal dry season that is traditional before May. No development here as well.
Meanwhile the Pacific season starts two weeks earlier and has not failed to impress already with now Super Typhoon Mawar, a Cat 5 monster, barrelling towards Taiwan and eventually turning towards the Philippines and Japan albeit weaker. The US territory of Guam received major damage but no deaths or serious injuries reported as of yet. The eye passed 15 miles to the north as a weaker storm than upon approach as Mawar underwent an ERC or eyewall replacement cycle which dropped top wind speeds down to 130 mph thus sparing a Cat 5 direct hit. Assessments are still underway as 98% of the island lost power. The WPAC also looks favorable for more strong storm activity in June.
Strong El Nino years tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation and this season is expected to experience one by the heart of it. Counteracting that is warmer than average SST or sea surface temperatures, the fuel for the storms. Let's hope El Nino wins out. Remember though, it only takes one.
The time is now to prepare and review your hurricane plans, evacuation routes and supplies. Don't wait until it's too late.
Stay safe and prepared!
Sunday, May 14, 2023 15:03PM PDT - Cyclone Mocha, North Indian Ocean’s strongest storm on record, hits Myanmar
- Ugh, not looking good for Myanmar. Cyclone Mocha made landfall in Myanmar as a Category 4 with 155 mph winds. Just 8 hours before it peaked at 175 mph winds, a North Indian Ocean record! Same as Maria and similar to Irma (Irma maxed out at 180 mph). Read more on Jeff Masters' blog at Yale Climate Connections. -Gert
Friday, April 14, 2023 10:05AM PDT - Another forecast
- Klotzbach et al at Colorado State issued their first forecast for the season. They also anticipate a (slightly) below average season. Although sea surface temperature are above normal, a 'robust' El Nino is expected to develop, which will make up for the higher SSTs. However, if no El Nino develops than we might be in for a busy season... Having said that, forecasts these early in the season are not that good, so we shouldn't put too much faith in them. It's still nice to read though that it might not be a too busy season, just like Tropical Storm Risk forecasted (see post below). However, we all know, just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil the whole season... We have to prepare, regardless of forecasts. Find the full forecast here and a nice discussion by Yale Climate Connections (Jeff Masters) here. -Gert
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Arlene, located over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Jun 4 7:46]
- Nevis [Jun 3 17:11]
- St.Croix [Jun 3 12:50]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 2 14:13]
- St.Lucia [Jun 2 9:12]
- Antigua [Jun 1 12:31]
- Jamaica [May 31 13:09]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 27 10:02]
- Barbados [May 13 11:06]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to firstname.lastname@example.org. Gert