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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Elsa | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Julian | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (05:50 UTC, 14 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

92L Invest:

Saturday, June 12, 2021 22:00PM EDT - 92L and a lowrider

Good night all,

The tropics are showing signs of reviving after an early season Ana, a mere 3 weeks ago, jump started the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Now, could there be a tropical system named Bill running amok in the Gulf of Mexico next week? Well, yes and no.

Currently 92L is slowly percolating in the Bay of Campeche/SW Gulf of Mexico with seemingly time on its hands as it strives to get organized and reach named status. SST's are plenty warm enough to enhance and nurture organization but that's only one feather in it's cap. The thorns number several. As it mosey's along towards the north, 92L will encounter increased wind shear which will inhibit thunderstorm growth. Saharan Dust particles, having traveled all the way from the African continent, will help to dry out the atmosphere while interaction with land will inhibit growth as well. However, systems have survived these same conditions previously so Bill is possible. I doubt running though.

Not expected to become a hurricane or even a strong TS, it's forecast track at this moment is towards the E Texas, Louisiana coast; just where it's potential heavy rains will be an unwanted guest due to saturated soil already from the spring storms. Lake Charles, for example, cannot catch a break. Time will tell but do not look for any name, if at all, before say Tuesday or Wednesday.

Off to our east where we really don't start paying attention or even looking in June is a lowrider tropical wave with activity unusual for this time of year. Around 5N, 37W, it would have to escape the ITCZ in order to have any chance of development but it's impressive stance makes it one to keep an eye on nonetheless. After all, the way this year has been going so far.....

On the African continent itself are several impressive waves getting in line to fall off the coast and make their trek westward. The migration is evident which means it's preparation time if you haven't started already. Remember, knowledge and preparation are the keys.

Dave

Friday, June 4, 2021 16:26PM PDT - New forecast calls for above average season
Today Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University came out with their updated forecast for the 2021 season. They still expect an above average season with 17 named storms (=18 total, Ana included). Normal (last 30 year average) is 14.4 storms. They expect 8 hurricanes (7.2 is normal), of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal).

The "net tropical cyclone activity", a measure of the average seasonal mean of number of storms and number of storm days, is 158%. Normal (1950-2000) is 100%, though 'new' normal (1991-2020) is 135%. So this season is about 17% more active than the 'new' normal. The chance of one or more major hurricane passing anywhere through the whole Caribbean (a large area) is 58% (average for last century (another 'normal') is 42%). As I wrote earlier, main factors of the above average season are the neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions.

New this year are the 'tropical cyclone impact probabilities', basically the chance of one or more storms passing by you within 50 miles. They report location not only in the US but also in the Caribbean. Below a list of islands/regions showing the probability of >10% of a major hurricane passing within 50 miles and the long term mean (1851-2019). Note that it is a bit biased for the larger islands, since the bigger you are the higher the chance.

  Island/Region           2021 'normal'
  The Bahamas              40%  27%
  Cuba                     33%  22%
  Mexico                   24%  16%
  Dominican Republic       23%  15%
  Bermuda                  16%  10%
  Turks and Caicos         16%  10%
  UK Virgin Islands        16%  11%
  Puerto Rico              15%  10%
  Anguilla                 14%   9%
  Antigua and Barbuda      14%   9%
  Haiti                    13%   8%
  Saint Kitts and Nevis    13%   8%
  US Virgin Islands        13%   8%
  Honduras                 12%   8%
  Montserrat               12%   7%
  Saint Martin             12%   8%
  Sint Eustatius           12%   7%
  Sint Maarten             12%   7%
  Jamaica                  11%   7%
  Cayman Islands           10%   6%
  Dominica                 10%   6%
  Guadeloupe               10%   6%
  Saba                     10%   6%
A full list (and more statistics) can be found here (scroll down to the end of the table for Caribbean locations). The complete hurricane forecast can be found at tropical.colostate.edu. The next one will come out July 8. -Gert

Wednesday, June 2, 2021 07:26AM EDT - It's here!

Good morning everyone,

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is upon us as if we need more trials and tribulations this year but at least we were aware this was coming. Awareness that should lead to preparedness and knowledge which are the keys to minimizing the potential impact(s) of a storm hit and quite possibly survival.

As Gert explained, we are in for another above average season with most all indicators and forecast models in agreement, continuing the past 20 years trend of activity. As he also noted, despite that anticipated amount of activity, it only takes one to land in your backyard with potentially disastrous results.

Nothing is expected in the near 5 day term tropical formation wise which is "normal" for this time of the season. The fuel for these tropical engines is warm to bathwater SST's and they are on the rise. The Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, two early and late season traditional breeding grounds, are already more than warm enough for activity to brew, as are a few areas off the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas.

So, with a known entity and the know-how/tools to mitigate it's attack and effects we can effectively "ride out the storm" in our best way possible. That doesn't mean nothing will happen to you personally and you will not suffer losses as even the best of preparedness can be overcome. However, being prepared and knowledgeable will go a long way to safeguard you and your family. Property can be replaced. You and your family cannot.

Take care, stay safe, be aware and informed! Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Yes, a cliche but still the best recommendation.

Dave

Tuesday, June 1, 2021 10:00AM PDT - 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Today marks the traditional start of the hurricane season. Although lately we often seem to have a storm before the start of the season. Like this year with Ana. However, that didn't reach hurricane status, so maybe June 1 for an official start does still seem valid. The last time a hurricane formed before June 1 was in 2016 (see this list of off-season storms on Wikipedia).

A few forecasts predict an above average season. The well renowned forecasters at Colorado State University will issue theirs June 4. If there are going to be El Nino or La Nina conditions during the season is one of the most important predictors. El Nino will suppress hurricane activity and La Nina the opposite. The current ENSO forecast (El Nino/La Nina) shows that La Nina has ended, and that more neutral conditions (in between an El Nino or La Nina) will occur through August. For the period August-October (more the peak of hurricane season) they predict 50% change of neutral conditions, 42% La Nina and only 8% El Nino (see here). So more La Nina-ish than El Nino-ish, whicht means that it is highly probably that CSU will come up with an above normal forecast as well...

Regardless the forecasts, as we all know, it only takes one hurricane in your backyard to spoil your season. It is best to prepare now by getting your hurricane shutters checked out, supplies stocked, etc., instead of waiting for the last minute when there will be long lines everywhere... And being well prepared will make you feel better as well this season!

Lastly a little plug for COVID-19 vaccinations! We all want things to get back to normal, esp. welcoming back tourist, a major part of many of the islands' economy. The quickest way to get there is to get vaccinated! It is safe, 100s of millions people have already done it. It is more risky for your health to NOT get vaccinated! These mRNA vaccines are not 'new' with 'unknown' long-term effects. The same method has already been used for SARS and Zika for example. So, if you want 'everything to open back up', you can actually do something about it by getting the shot! Some more info on the CDC website and a 'fact check' on USA Today. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, May 22, 2021 13:32PM PDT - Ana
The Invest Dave was describing a couple of days ago has been upgraded to sup-tropical storm Ana. It has become pretty normal in recent years that we have the first named storm before the official start of Hurricane Season (June 1). Last year (when we had a record number of storms) we actually had 3 named storms before June 1st. Hope this year will be a bit more mellow...

But back to Ana..., it is located to the northeast of Bermuda and moving away. It is not expected to be a long lived storms due to high wind shear, dry air and lower sea surface temperatures ahead. The tropical storm watch for Bermuda has already been lifted. A good first storm to make everyone aware that hurricane season is just around the corner and that this would be a good time to start preparing for a possible threat... -Gert

Thursday, May 20, 2021 11:28AM EDT - First Invest 90L 2021

Good morning and hello all,

It's been a long time since I've posted, mainly due to a busy last few months but the 2021 hurricane season is upon us and it's already starting to make pre-official, start of the Atlantic Hurricane season waves.

90L has been designated for a closer look by the NHC as has been forecast in the last week or so by the long term genesis models. Located several hundred miles to the NE of Bermuda, it's forecast movement will be towards Bermuda with minimal impacts expected such as high waves, gusty winds and lashing rains but then is expected to pull back towards the NE with no threat to land masses while the shipping lanes will have a rough go.

This is not a tropical system but a potential sub tropical one with a large wind field, most thunderstorms and heavy convection displaced from the mainly cloud free "center" while being either warm or cold core. In essence, a hybrid of characteristics.

Tidbit: There is no such thing as a sub tropical hurricane for if their winds reach hurricane force, then that system would have evolved to become fully tropical.

That's it for now as breaktime is over. The first name on the board for this season is Ana. While it's a bit before the official start of the season, it's not too early to start preparations.

Be safe and prepared!

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Friday, April 9, 2021 10:27AM PDT - La Sourfriere on St.Vincent erupting
This morning La Soufriere on St.Vincent erupted, sending a 2 mile high cloud of ash up in the sky. Evacuation orders have been issued. I have asked my special hurricane correspondents on St.Vincent for some updates. Hope we get some local reports! Surrounding islands have offered to take in evacuees, of course, further complicated because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous eruptions were in 1979, 1902, 1812 and 1718, so it is not a common event. The ash of the eruption might affect some other islands as well... Wishing everyone well. -Gert

Thursday, April 8, 2021 17:11PM PDT - Above average 2021 hurricane season?
It is that time of the year again that Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State issue their forecast for the season. Again, they are calling for an above normal season with 17 tropical storms (12.1 is normal), 8 hurricanes (6.4 is average) of which 4 reaching Category 3 or higher (2.7 is normal). The probability of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is 58% (normal is 42%). Note that this is a large area, this is not the chance that your island will get hit.

The main reasons for a potential busy season are above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and an absence of El Nino conditions, which normally suppresses hurricane activity. So nothing to surprising. What made me look though was the 'analogue years' they picked. These are years with similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions as the current year. They picked 1996, 2001, 2008 (Ike and Paloma), 2011 and last but not least, 2017 (Irma and Maria!!!). Hope it won't be similar to 2017! Number of storms doesn't say it all, you only need one to spoil your whole season, and last year we had 30 named storms with not much affect on us... In any case.., now is a good time to prepare, hurricane season starts in less than 2 months! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche 
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the system has 
changed little in organization since earlier today.  Some slow 
development is possible during the next few days while the low
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could 
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly 
northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible 
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the 
next several days.  Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 150 miles 
south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to 
move northeastward for the next few days near the Gulf Stream 
waters,  which could allow for some tropical development to occur 
while it moves away from the United States.  The low should be over 
cold waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development 
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jun 13 19:39]
- Dominica [Jun 12 17:37]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 11 11:36]
- St.Thomas [Jun 10 15:10]
- Nevis [Jun 6 16:21]
- Bonaire [May 19 14:20]
- Haiti [May 17 10:37]
- Grenada [May 9 12:17]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert