Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good morning,

As Gert shared yesterday, slow so far is the name of the game at the moment, although we do have a home grown system in the GOMEX/GOA slowly striving to get its act together while giving the west coast of Florida some much needed, but not enough relief, from its ongoing drought.

91L is the only game on the Atlantic side and has taken a while to even manifest that designation after short lived and discombobulated TS Arthur drenched Texas in June, killed 4 people and caused about 1 Billion dollars in damages (credit Wikipedia), which goes to prove that even a mild TS can raise havoc, death and destruction. A major reason why preparation is the key and never take any tropical entity with a grain of salt.

Obviously, the longer 91L stays over the juicy heat content of the Gulf, the better chance of slow intensification rises. Heading more west than north will allow that to happen although strong wind shear will have a say. Still, we have seen wind shear effects overcome by above average heat content which is the fuel for these systems. While N to S orientation is evident at the moment, 91L is expected by many models to reach at least low to mid TS status before making land interaction along the northern gulf coast in spite of said wind shear. This being said, from west Florida to eastern Texas should be monitoring this potential development. Plus, whether it develops or not, the main effects are heavy, possibly flooding rains, some wind damage, and scattered power outages. The next name is Bertha, a familiar name to me from early season in July 1996. As a Cat 1 hurricane, she added misery to an already devastated USVI, particularly St. Thomas, as recovery efforts from Hurricane Marilyn slowly continued from September the year before.

The Caribbean and the Atlantic Basin remains in shut down mode which is good news as the dual draconian grips of strong wind shear and our old, annual friend, Saharan Dust, continue their suppression of anything even thinking about trying to survive the trek across the Atlantic. A few tropical waves are evident but devoid of most convection due to the above. The flip side of this interaction is the dearth of drought busting rainfall, with the exception of the lower Windward islands as in Trinidad/Tobago, Grenada, and St. Vincent/Grenadines who are managing to get the bulk of any moisture survival as these waves remain below the shear and the dust.

However, as we have said for years and continue to remind all, it does only take 1, regardless of how many are predicted and actually come to fruition.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. We have 134 days left with the peak still a ways away. A lot can and has happened in this time period and yes, history does repeat itself.

Dave

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Adams/Beven

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