Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (04:30 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Monday, November 12, 2018 20:45PM EST - 96L

Good evening!

Have not posted lately due to numerous personal events so sorry if you have missed my posts and updates. However, I am still here! Thanks to Gert for holding my end up!

Potential named storm Patty, now 96L, is located a few hundred miles to the east of Guadeloupe as a discombobulated, wind sheared system. Moving to the WNW at about 8 mph, 96L is naked below the waist, aka south of the low pressure center, due to the wind shear force field that has been protecting the island chain all year long. This means almost all of the strong thunderstorms and winds are to the north of the "center". Winds are approx. 35 miles an hour technically meaning TD status but there is no defined closed circulation hence still it remains a strong tropical wave, at this time.

Due to the strong wind shear, 96L is not expected to develop around the northern Leeward Islands but will drop 1-6 inches of rain with gusty winds and angry up to 10-12 foot seas. Down the road, wind shear will lessen and the seas will be a bit warmer leading to probable Patty named status, giving the Turks and Caicos and maybe the lower Bahamas some worries. But, that should be the extent as a strong front coming off the coast should intercept probable Patty and turn her out to sea, giving Bermuda a dousing on the fast track by while the Florida coast breathes a late season sigh of relief.

For those who wonder where all the rain is coming from all of a sudden, November is one of our historically rainiest months. The rains are not surprising and neither is a late season spin up. Official season ends in 18 days. It has been so far, a lucky year here around the eastern Caribbean as the continuous wind shield just to our east has been a formidable adversary to approaching systems since May.

Stay safe and stay blessed.

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Monday, November 12, 2018 09:02AM PST - Patty?
It looks like we might have a late season storm on our hands. Invest 96L, located just east of the Leeward Islands has a high change to develop into tropical storm Patty. It is expected to travel west to west-northwest. Hopefully it will pass a bit more north to avoid the northeastern islands, like St.Maarten, Anguilla and the Virgin Islands since they already had a lot of rain over the last couple of days. It doesn't look like this storm will ever become a hurricane, but it might be a significant rainmaker for the islands. Stay tuned! -Gert

- - - Invest 96L and its projected path - - -

Sunday, October 28, 2018 12:39PM PDT - Oscar
And indeed, as forecasted, Invest 95L has developed into tropical storm Oscar. It is even expected to become a hurricane, though not higher than a Category 1. Looks like that the forecast models were pretty much spot on. It will not be a threat to the islands, and it is expected to stay a safe distance from Bermuda when it will pass about 460 miles to the east in 2 days or so. Still one more month of hurricane season, but hopefully this was the last one! -Gert

Thursday, October 25, 2018 08:58AM PDT - Oscar?
Looks like we might have another named storm this year! Invest 95L is about 800 miles east-northeast of the islands, and has a 70% chance to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Looking at the spaghetti plots (see links above) it doesn't seem to be a threat to the islands. And if it makes that sharp turn north before it gets to Bermuda they should be fine as well.

In the Pacific on the other hand, the Northern Mariana Islands got slammed by an Irma-like storm named Yutu yesterday and Mexico earlier by Category 3 storm Willa (which was a Cat.5 just a day earlier). Remarkable about both storms is the rapid intensification. Wunderground reports that Willa went from a tropical depression on Saturday to a Category 5 storm on Monday, a record setting 54 hours, and similar to Maria in the Atlantic last year. Yutu as well went from 75 mph (Cat.1) to 180 mph (Cat.5) in just 30 hours. As you can imagine the situation is not good. The islands, close to Guam, are part of the US Commonwealth. But not sure if that really helps with the recovery seeing what the US Government did for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Finally, check out the pictures from the not-storm related flooding in Trinidad last weekend send in by our special hurricane correspondents. Many aid organizations have offered to help, including Nicki Minaj, who is born there. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Dec 6 17:28]
- St.Lucia [Dec 4 20:45]
- Dominica [Dec 3 12:12]
- Nevis [Dec 2 1:07]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Dec 1 0:32]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 17:52]
- Anguilla [Nov 30 16:22]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 12 17:19]
- Antigua [Nov 11 20:00]
- St.John [Nov 9 1:30]
- Grenada [Nov 2 6:48]
- Barbados [Oct 19 18:10]
- Curaçao [Oct 18 19:03]
- Belize [Oct 7 10:21]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 28 10:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 8:38]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 20:53]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 16 23:25]
- Montserrat [Sep 12 21:52]
- Haiti [Sep 7 7:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 6 9:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 28 12:19]
- Bonaire [Aug 17 5:51]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert