Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Depression Chantal
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:20 UTC, 24 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Chantal tools:
99L Invest:
98L Invest:

Tuesday, August 20, 2019 19:38PM PDT - Chantal
After a dry spell of over a month (Hurricane Barry made landfall in Louisiana on July 13) we have our third tropical storm, Chantal. It is pretty far north (40.2N). Bermuda by comparison is at 32N. In fact Chantal is currently already about 700 miles to the north-east of Bermuda and moving away. The storm is not expected to strengthen much either and is no threat to the islands or any other land. A fish storm as we like to call them.

Also not much else going on in the Atlantic. I see a tropical wave coming off the African coast but there seems to be a lot of wind shear, so that probably won't develop into something for awhile. Traditionally we have like a 2 peaked hurricane season for the eastern Caribbean, one about now and one early-mid September (see this page, which I really have to update someday...). So don't call this a slow season yet! -Gert

Saturday, August 3, 2019 20:07PM EDT - The fizzling 96L

Good Saturday evening,

The imposter, 96L, is still lurking off to the east of the Eastern Caribbean Islands but the earlier menacing gestures of an early season named system generated from the Cabo Verde Islands area have diminished significantly in the last few days. The upper level shearing low, aka TUTT, located just north of the NE Caribbean Islands, with a dash of Saharan Dust drying out the atmosphere, has contributed to the gradual reduction of percentages of development from the NHC. The models concur. But.....

Large, elongated and discombobulated, 96L still does have a small chance of at least reaching TD status, according to about 50% of the model ensembles, if it can get it's act together but the window is closing rapidly. If it does reach that status, it will be short lived. Still, Tuesday into Thursday widespread showers, thunderstorms, rough seas and gusty winds will be the menu much like 95L before it.

Meanwhile, the wave train continues behind 96L so a wetter pattern will continue the next few weeks with cyclogenesis conditions not expected to manifest themselves until the last week of August. Will it be a quiet season this year or will the season suddenly explode with activity and possible calamity? It will be interesting and problematic at the same time. Interesting to see how it all pans out. Problematic if just one storm is the calamity. After all, it does, only take one.

Be safe. Be prepared.Â

Have a good weekend everyone!

Dave



Virus-free. www.avg.com

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Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Chantal, located several hundred miles west of the
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of southeastern
Florida continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northern Bahamas and the
adjacent western Atlantic waters.  The system has changed little in
organization since this afternoon, but environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend.  The low is forecast
to move generally northwestward near or over southeastern Florida
through tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the
Atlantic near the east coast of central Florida on Saturday.  After
that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the
southern and central Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress
of this system.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with an
area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands has become better defined, but the thunderstorm
activity is limited at this time.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Grenada [Aug 23 11:39]
- Antigua [Aug 23 10:29]
- St.Croix [Aug 22 23:46]
- Nevis [Aug 22 13:04]
- St.Thomas [Aug 21 8:49]
- Haiti [Aug 19 13:55]
- Saba [Aug 19 9:20]
- Belize [Aug 19 8:09]
- Anguilla [Aug 18 17:51]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 18 15:49]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 17 9:28]
- St.Lucia [Aug 16 7:43]
- Dominica [Aug 8 15:11]
- Barbados [Aug 4 11:29]
- St.John [Aug 2 21:05]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 1 9:36]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 31 0:16]
- Montserrat [Jul 13 21:10]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert