2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred ||
Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Isaias
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (09:10 UTC, 24 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Sunday, August 2, 2020 19:06PM EDT
- Isaias and the rest
Good night all,
Former hurricane Isaias, now TS Isaias, possibly rejuvenated hurricane Isaias soon, is slowly crawling up the Florida east coast at 9 mph with 70 mph winds, all offshore at this time fortunately yet tantalizingly close enough to the coastline akin to Dorian and a few others the last few years. It's amazing to see storms that can just parallel the coastline without touching, so close yet so far. This is probably the worst to forecast storm I have ever had to report on since I started back in 1997. What a system in constant flux, changing conditions, and fighting skills. It has done one good thing: Not a dry but a wet and scary run to test readiness, responsiveness, and the patience of all along with a pandemic crisis. However, the toll has been heavy, paid for by Puerto Rico again, eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.Â
TS Isaias has been sparking up lately and quite possibly will reup to hurricane status as shear has dropped slightly while over the very comforting warm waters of the gulf stream, dry air intrusion lacking and a non interaction/friction with land. This does not bode well with points above Florida, especially the Carolinas. Here just above Daytona Beach, it has been a weekend as usual except for preparations just in case as we all should do: prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Looking up the east coast, all my friends should be looking out for heavy rains, flooding, trees down, power outages and short lived tornadoes.
94L is striving to attain a name for herself, which would be Josephine, as it continues to trek to the NW several hundred miles off to the NE of Antigua. Swells, high surf, rip currents and small craft advisories will be the only effects to theÂupper Lesser Antilles from this wannabe as it churns towards fish storm history. But it does continue a pattern of early season activity.
It appears we will have a break for a week or two in the action but that will not last long so complacency should not overtake your vigilanceÂor preparedness. We have the historically busy 8 weeks ahead soon and if the early part of this season is a harbinger of things to come, no one will be immune or safe from the possibilities that are to come.
Be safe, be prepared and enjoy your Sunday evening!
Saturday, August 1, 2020 08:26AM EDT
- Isaias and others
The Bahamas continue to take the brunt of discombobulated hurricane Isaias while Florida's east coast cringes and can only wait. 85 mph and moving to the NW at a much slower 12 mph, wind shear and dry air intrusion has been the twin factors in Isaias not becoming a Cat 3-4 hurricane. This is the good news. The bad news is Cat 1 hurricanes can still cause wind damage, power outages, spawn tornadoes, and cause severe flooding. Hurricane hunters are currently investigating the storm which is over very shallow and bathwater waters. We should have a better idea later today where landfall inÂFlorida, if it occurs, will happen. There is still much uncertainty. It does appear on satellite, despite the dry air intrusion and and wind shear interference, Isaias is trying to strengthen and wobbled a bit more west, bad news for the Fl coast.Â
Currently set to make landfall around West Palm Beach, a collection of pricey homes, mansion beachfront properties and high end shops, Isaias is expected after landfall to ride up the coast of Fla exiting just south of Daytona Beach back over open water as a strong TS. I am currentlyÂjust north of Daytona Beach and feel like a hurricane magnet! Regardless, this is what the latest model guidance suggests. A wobble to the west will be worse off for this coast while a wobble to the east could keep Isaias as a hurricane on a date with North and SouthÂCarolina then points all the way to Maine. Wobbles cannot be predicted and just a 20-40 mile wobble can mean the difference between severe damage and minimal damage. Hurricane Matthew is a very good example of this. Either way, not a good scenario for the whole east coast.
Ok off to the east of our Caribbean Islands we have two active areas. One, TD#10, had a small window of opportunity to get a name for itself but has now lost that opportunity. Located about 200 miles to the NE of the Cabo verde Islands just off the African coast, it is expected to turn west, weaken and dissipate. Maybe down the road it will regenerate. This season anything is possible.
Another area, basically a very weakÂtropical wave a few days ago, has moved into a more favorable area and appears to be taking advantage of it's opportunity. CurrentlyÂlocated about 600 miles to the east of Antigua, it's area of potential development is to the NW. Expected to turn to the NW then north, if it does develop, it will become a fish storm and no threat to the Caribbean.
The African Wave train continues to spew new potential trouble every few days and, as we enter August arriving into the peak months of hurricane season, it's even more important to prepare and be vigilant. There are 4 months left in the official season and we already have 9 named storms, a depression, and 2 hurricanes making landfall. A harbinger of things potentially on the horizon. This is not to scare anyone but to enlighten, educate and coax vigilance and preparedness.
Stay prepared and safe!
Friday, July 31, 2020 08:11AM PDT - Isaias - Dorian
- I just wanted to add to Dave's post that we all feel with the people on Grand Bahama and Abaco who last year were terribly hit by Dorian. Having another hurricane coming at you, and hearing the sounds again, can be extremely stressful. While Isaias is by far not as strong as Dorian, it is still a hurricane, and it will move pretty close by Grand Bahama. Hope you can prepare your home for the storm, or have a safe place to go (complicated with COVID). -Gert
Friday, July 31, 2020 07:02AM EDT
- Hurricane Isaias + 93L
While some slept last night, TS Isaias was designated, an 80 mph hurricane around 11:40 pm last night, not long after the 11 pm advisory had been issued keeping it a TS. The difference is because hurricane hunter collected data had not reached the NHC yet in time for the 11am advisory. When it did, the storm was upgraded promptly instead of waiting for the intermediate 2am advisory in order to quickly update and warn the Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, and the east coast of the rising threat from this system. The pressure fell 9 Mb overnight indicating a strengthening storm system adding to the threat potential.
Isaias, the only 4 syllable hurricane with a mouthful to pronounce, replaced the infamousÂhurricane Ike, whose name was retired. Isaias is not expected to generate the same kind of damage and death toll Ike produced, but will have wide ranging and long lasting impacts. Unless something really changes, Isaias is expected to rake the Turks & Caicos, all of the Bahamas, and the entire east coast with winds, flooding rains, scattered power outages and storm surges. Hurricane warnings are up for the Bahamas where storm surge and wind damage will be prolific compounding the misery from hurricane Dorian last year and rebuilding efforts. Most of the stronger winds and rain are in the north and east quadrants with some dry air intrusion into the SW courtesy of Cuba and upper level wind shear.
Located about 350 SE of Nassau and having slowed forward speed to about 17 mph, Isaias will be moving over very warm waters and is forecast to slowly strengthen into a Cat 2 storm within 36 hours. Models have trended west overnight which puts Florida more in the crosshairs and I expect hurricane watches and warnings to start replacing the TS watch either as of 8 am or definitely the 11 am advisory as those models data plus new hurricane hunter flight data (they are in the storm now) is input into the forecast. If these trends continue, SE Florida could sustain a direct hit. As it stands now, Florida is on the weaker side of the storm with TS force winds, copious amountsÂof rain, and isolated tornadoes as main threats. Again, this is how it stands now. There are plenty of scenariosÂthough.
The uncertainty will soon become a certainty and that cone of uncertainty will certainly shrink over the next 24-36 hours. Whether you're in the cone or on the fringes, you can and will feel some impacts. This is a large storm with dangerous potential. As a TS, look what it did to Puerto Rico, an island devastated by Hurricane Maria in 2017 and still trying to recover.Â
As we watch Iasias try to join the ranks of the other 11 retired "I" storms and pray he doesn't, 93L is located about 250 miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands with a half raised window of opportunity to become a TD but that will close quickly and 93L will become a fish storm and no threat to the Caribbean. Another wave located about 900 miles to the east of the Caribbean has very low potential at the moment and is expected to turn NW in a few days again, not a threat at this time to the Caribbean. There are a few vigorous waves crossing the African continent which will bear more vigilance and wariness in the coming weeks.
Be safe and prepare.
Thursday, July 30, 2020 07:32AM EDT
- TS Isaias
Finally, as long expected, PTC #9, morphed into TS Isaias. Several reasons it took so long. The dry air to the north, it's broad, elongated structure stretching about 800 miles wide, lower humidityÂlevels in the low and mid levels, plus it's forward sprinters speed of 23 mph which didn't allow it to catch up with itself and take time to consolidate. However, it's ridden itself of most of these issues although it is still a large system and trucking along about 21mph to the NW as a 60 mph much better consolidated TS.
After lashing the lower Lesser Antilles yesterday and continuing to drought bust PR (multiple flash flood warnings are up) and all of the VI's with heavy rain bands, TS Isaias is expected to be north of Hispaniola by tonight and near the SE Bahamas tomorrow morning with the Turks and Caicos caught in the middle. TS warnings are up for most of the Greater Antilles, T&C, and the Bahamas.Â
Currently located about 60 miles to the WSW of Ponce PR, it's soon to be forecasted interaction with the mountains of the DR will determine alotÂof things, mainly future track and intensity. It's almost a given the mountains will disrupt the circulation if it does meet the mountains, and where that circulation reforms after that interaction is key much like Hurricane Dorians center was relocated to the north after interaction with the mountains in St. Lucia in 2019 and we know how that turned out. Farther to the east and it looks like the storm will track throughÂthe Bahamas and up the coast but sparing Florida a direct hit. Farther to the west, Florida is still in the crosshairs and even it's possible the GOM comes into play. It's a tricky forecast with Hurricane Hunters expected later this morning and this evening hoping to give more details as to structure, strength and speed.
Right now it actually looks like the center is gonna try to shoot the gap between PR and the DR aka the Mona Passage limiting interaction which would be a bad thing going forward. Then, a hurricane will be a definite.Â
Either way, with TS winds stretchingÂup to 415 miles from the center,, it's a sure bet almost everyone will be impacted direct hit or not. Flooding rains, gusty, even hurricane force winds, power outages and a surging ocean causing coastal flooding and erosion will occur. Please get your preparations done asap if you haven't already. This one isn't leaving much time.Â
Bottom line, a strong TS remains while a hurricane is probable. T&C, Bahamas and the entire SE coast of the US should be vigilant and ready.Â
Be safe and prepared.
Wednesday, July 29, 2020 07:45AM EDT
- The "I" storm
The sprawling systemÂthat has been designated Potential Tropical Storm or PTC 9 is still just that this morning, PTC 9. However, it is packing the same impacts as if it was a named storm at the moment with heavy rains, gusty 45-55 mph winds, flooding, and landslides.
Why isn't it named TS Isaias yet? No clear closed low level circulation. Hurricane Hunters have been unable to verify and close off the circulation hence it remains with high confidence, PTC 9. This designation allows the NHC to issue advisories ahead of what they say will become a named storm in order to make the public aware of the dangers and potential ahead. With TS warnings stretching from Martinique to the DR currently, the impacts will be as stated above. The rain is definitely needed as PTC 9 could be a drought buster for PR and the eastern islands but we don't need it all at once. Overnight, this system has strengthened a bit wind wise and tightened up so I do expect the name, Isaias today at some point.Â
Where it goes from the Eastern Caribbean is not so certain. The stronger it gets, the more of a northerly component it will take, possibly affecting the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, east coast and Bermuda. The more southerly trek would take it south of the VI, PR,Â the mountains of the DR and possibly into the Gulf where there is no escape but landfall. That trackÂcould slow it down development wise as it would interact with the mountains of the DR, disrupting any circulation that exists. While short term confidence is high, long term is not so much so time will tell but until it forms that closed circulation, it's a coin flip. I see a potential track similar to TS Fay in 2008 with Cuba, Haiti, the Dr and Florida the most susceptible to PTC 9.Â
A bit of trivia. The "I" storm is the most retired letter among hurricane names with 11. The next three, A,C, and F have only had 7 each retired. And we all remember the last one, hurricane Irma in 2017.
Be safe and prepared. This season is just ramping up and it's not even August yet.
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida.
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of
disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the
associated shower activity is not well organized. However,
environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of
this system during the next several days, with a tropical
depression possibly forming later this week. This system is
forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern
Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles
southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations
- Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean -
stormCARIB is hosted
at and supported by
-- Donations needed --
Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Aug 2 23:31]
- Grenada [Aug 2 8:21]
- Antigua [Aug 2 6:03]
- Bahamas [Aug 1 17:43]
- Nevis [Aug 1 7:59]
- Bonaire [Jul 31 18:49]
- St.Thomas [Jul 31 12:45]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 31 12:21]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 31 12:05]
- Turks & Caicos [Jul 31 8:00]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 31 5:34]
- Florida Keys [Jul 30 23:11]
- Montserrat [Jul 30 20:21]
- Vieques (PR) [Jul 30 19:28]
- Jamaica [Jul 30 15:38]
- St.John [Jul 30 14:02]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 29 16:20]
- Anguilla [Jul 29 12:15]
- Martinique [Jul 29 11:53]
- Dominica [Jul 29 8:03]
- Barbados [Jul 29 0:18]
- St.Lucia [Jul 25 12:49]
- Haiti [Jul 24 11:02]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x