Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Florence, Tropical Depression Joyce
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (13:45 UTC, 36 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Florence tools:
Joyce tools:

Friday, September 14, 2018 09:38AM PDT - Florence Path
The ECMWF (European) model is now also agreeing more with the other models and official NHC forecast. It is not showing the big dip southward. See: this image (source: Tang/UAlbany), black line is last model run, blue ones are earlier runs, red is actual track. -Gert

Thursday, September 13, 2018 18:29PM PDT - Bye, Bye Isaac?
Well, it looks like Isaac was an almost non-event, judging from the reports from Dominica and surrounding islands. Although it has not passed totally, there is still some significant rainfall coming, judging from the satellite image above and radar loops of Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Meanwhile, Florence is taking aim for the US East Coast. Just a heads up if anyone is listening on the East Coast, the European ECMWF model forecast is still (see my earlier posts) predicting a different path than the official NHC forecast. It keeps Florence off-shore for a little while, dipping south, before making landfall close to the Georgia/South Carolina border (around Beaufort, SC, hard to see) and then move inland. Just to keep in mind if you live in Charleston, Savannah, or thereabouts... See Tropical Tidbits (click through the images). Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Wednesday, September 12, 2018 23:07PM EDT - Florence and the afterthoughts

Good evening from upstate NY,

Late post since I was traveling but found signal and time for a bit to write.Â

My subject, as you are wondering what, is just that. Once a major storm is headed to and about to strike the mainland or Hawaii, and the Caribbean islands have a similar situation at the same time, we here in the Caribbean become an afterthought. Focus is directed mainly at what can/will happen there. Yes, I understand the variables of population, economy, etc. But we have US Islands here too as in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands plus all of our wonderful neighboring islands stretching from Central America to Barbados. I heard one meteorologist on national cable say the other morning, and he was being honest to his credit, " Sorry we can't pay much attention to you as you can see we have Florence to deal with." Now, that is not word for word but that's 90% of it. I started contributing to this site back in like 1998 as I was disenchanted with the fact we were always ignored down here and there was a huge lack of information and communication. So,Â

As this is mainly about the Caribbean, I will start with what is about to really affect the Caribbean and that is Isaac. Now, TS Isaac has not played in the sandbox with forecasters very well since his humble beginnings west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Forecast to become a hurricane of even a Cat 2 possibly, he never has reached his potential and that is GREAT news for all of us in the Eastern Caribbean, especially those of us who experienced Irma and Maria last year. However, some of the islands those storms did impact, regardless of Isaacs potential or not, will be experiencing TS force winds and up to possibly 8 inches of rain. Montserrat, Dominica and the butterfly island of Guadeloupe are all under TS warnings. TS force winds do extend outwards of up to 175 miles and much of that is to the south which is quite uncommon as Gert mentioned previously. Rainfall that affects Puerto Rico, the BVI's, and down to St. Maarten will be in the form of squalls and thunderstorms about 1-4 inches. But as we all know, one thunderstorm can drop 1-4 inches in just one hour so flooding in isolated locales is a possible issue.

As TS Isaac moves through the middle islands tomorrow, it is forecast to weaken due to the relentless wind shear attack. That is what some models say and is entirely possible. Isaac then enters the Eastern Caribbean graveyard where most storms never form or fight to stay alive if they have life already. Where am I going with this? If Isaac, and remember, he is an "I" storm, makes it with it's basics intact through the graveyard, then we could have a major problem in the Gulf of Mexico or even Central America depending on the steering currents at that time. Jamaica and the Caymans could feel a rejuvenated TS. Time will tell for that scenario.

Behind Isaac, Hurricane Helene is showing no interest in chasing a weakening Isaac, which again is GREAT news for us here. She thus sets her sights on a date with the Azores this weekend. Might be a brush by or a direct impact as a weakening TS but effects will be felt nonetheless.

Sub Tropical Storm Joyce, a newbie to the scene, will meander aimlessly in the Atlantic for a few days SW, turn abruptly NE and follow then TS Helene to the Azores region. So the Azores will probably have issues over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Joyce does have the chance to become a real TS over the next day if she can acquire more "tropical like" characteristics and that is the official forecast. But it will be short lived.

95L is throwing a temper tantrum in the Gulf of Mexico with the SW Texas coast as it's main objective. Here we have another area that does not need anymore rain. Forecast to become a tropical depression, maybe a minimal TS if time over the water provides, wind will not be the problem regardless of those classifications. Once again, it will be the heavy rainfall accumulations over already saturated ground.

Hurricane Florence, as I have shared for days, will be devastating especially in the storm surge and flooding arenas. Wind damage will be the same along the coast and if she meanders along the coast for a few days as projected at this moment, a relentless ocean pounding will be epic. By the way, just because Florence is forecast to drop in intensity right before the coast does not mean your in the clear if you refused to evacuate. It does not make it right you stayed. As Gert shared, your stupidity and arrogance could cost you your life or someone elses who tries to rescue you. Leave now if you still can and are under mandatory evacuation. Material things can be replaced. The joyride is not worth it.

Dave


... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located a few hundred miles south of the Azores.
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located over the southern New
England.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Sep 17 22:34]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 16 23:25]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 16 22:39]
- Nevis [Sep 16 1:01]
- Antigua [Sep 15 13:11]
- St.Thomas [Sep 15 7:06]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 14 13:17]
- Dominica [Sep 14 11:50]
- St.Lucia [Sep 14 11:49]
- Martinique [Sep 14 10:22]
- Grenada [Sep 14 7:59]
- Barbados [Sep 14 1:15]
- Anguilla [Sep 13 16:02]
- Montserrat [Sep 12 21:52]
- Belize [Sep 9 7:55]
- Haiti [Sep 7 7:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 6 9:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 28 12:19]
- Bonaire [Aug 17 5:51]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- St.John [Jul 9 9:45]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert