Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (01:30 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
Wednesday, July 10, 2019 09:25AM EDT
- 92L and a bit more
Things have been quiet since the beginning of June as they usually are but 92L has jump started July with dreaded anticipation along the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 92L later this afternoon and might find a surprise or two. Unusual but not unprecedented for it's formative trek through the Midwest diving southeast towards the GOM, 92L is now poised to become the next named storm in the young season, Barry.
Regardless of whether it reaches named status, which it probably will, the real threat at this moment is more flooding along the Mississippi River. While forecast to crest just 1 foot above the levees in New Orleans, areas to the west of New Orleans could actually use some good rain due to moderate drought. Problem is, if this plays out, there will be much more rain than bargained for.
Until a COC is formed, forecasting the track and intensity will be difficult. If it stays close to the coast, it's intensity will be stalled due to land interaction even though most land along the coast is pretty flat which limits friction. The farther south then west it moves, then it's over extremely warm water, like 86-90 degrees, which is prime fuel for intensification. Normally thisÂcan leadÂto RI (Rapid Intensification) but wind shear should limit that possibility.
Landfall is now forecast to occur in western LA/TX border. While population levels are far less, the eastern and northern sides will would receive the bulk of the rain and wind where the more populous areas reside. It is not out of the realm of possibility, at the moment, that Houston could be in the crosshairs as well as a Cat 1 hurricane.
Preparations should be well underway regardless as it will land with heavy rains, flooding and possibly strong winds. In the Atlantic, it's quiet with copious amounts of Sahara Dust doing it's normal, seasonal protective duty suppressing formation and rain activity as a whole. We in the NE Caribbean could use some regular rain as it's been droughty since December.
Monday, July 8, 2019 16:14PM PDT - Sargassum...
- For some islands it has become a big (smelly) nuisance... Sargassum on beautiful beaches. Recently Wang et al published an article on it in Science, calling it the biggest bloom. Since 2011 Sargassum has become much more prevalent in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. In the last couple of years it has been so bad that you can see on satellite images a large belt of Sargassum extending from West Africa and northern South America to the Caribbean Sea.
The authors think that the increase has to do with higher nutrient (nitrate and/or phosphate, similar to what is in fertilizer) input to the ocean. They see correlations with increased upwelling off West Africa (bringing nutrient rich deep ocean water to the surface) and increased nutrient load of the Amazon River, due to deforestation and increased fertilizer use in Brazil.. Also, if a lot of Sargassum survives the previous winter, it will also make it a bad Sargassum year. Unfortunately they don't think it is going to get much better in the future. They also propose a method to predict how bad "the Sargassum season" (it peaks in July) is going to be a few months ahead. Read the full article here, it is pretty easy to follow, not too "sciency".
In hurricane news... There is an area of disturbed weather in the southeastern US (Georgia/Alabama) that is moving south. It might become something one it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The Caribbean islands are not threatened. -Gert
|- - - Sargassum distribution July 2018 - - -|
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Central Bahamas is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are likely to be unfavorable for significant
development during the next couple of days while the trough moves
westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Development is not
anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jul 21 18:57]
- Nevis [Jul 19 18:33]
- St.Thomas [Jul 17 6:50]
- Dominica [Jul 15 11:36]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 15 4:52]
- Barbados [Jul 14 21:27]
- Grenada [Jul 14 18:51]
- Montserrat [Jul 13 21:10]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 13 10:30]
- Belize [Jun 30 9:46]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 25 16:45]
- St.Lucia [Jun 23 11:47]
- Anguilla [Jun 22 6:25]
- Antigua [Jun 1 8:17]
- Haiti [May 22 11:06]
- Dominican Republic [Apr 28 18:09]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact email@example.com.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to email@example.com. Gert