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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Alberto
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (17:10 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Alberto tools:

Tuesday, June 18, 2024 20:25PM EDT - Heating up albeit slowly

Good evening,

With an early non existent start to the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season despite expectations of hyperactiveness starting in May, we now have a few blips on the screen albeit minor to start in intensity but with flooding and fatalities already in their wake. .

PTC#1: Now expected to become our first named system, TS Alberto will be a short-lived name with some heavy effects, especially to its north and west. TS warnings are in effect from the Texas coastline south of Houston into Mexico. Already raising havoc with deadly effects in El Salvador and Guatemala via heavy rains ahead of landfall along the Mexican coast as a low or TS, the heaviest action is expected to the north into Texas with reaching effects into Louisiana initially. Even if this does not consolidate with a closed circulation, the results will be the same. Coastal flooding will be an issue along the low lying barrier islands with flooding an issue inland plus the strongest winds expected to the north northwest as well.

Hurricane hunters are investigating to check on all the conditions in advance of expected landfall tomorrow morning. The silver lining is the drought in the SW part of Texas will be alleviated for the most part. The problem is too much rainfall all at once will result in flooding and probably more fatalities. Houston, especially prone to flooding, looks to get a good slug coming in now ahead.

After this system has made its impact, groundhog day might manifest itself later this week with another system possibly taking the same track as the first. Details on this one are too far out to specify but models are in good agreement there will be another system in the Bay of Campeche on the weekend.

Meanwhile, close to the Bahamas, we have another system with potential to become a weak TS by landfall but doubtful with the jet stream dip. Expected to take a NNW trek, regardless of formation, it should bring heavy surf to the southern east coast and heavy rains to parts of central and northern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. A bit early to tell exactly though so we shall monitor how the potential development progresses. Looks to be a wet next 5-7 days along the SE coasts. Hopefully, it veers more northerly since South Florida doesn't need anymore rain for a while due to its recent flooding event.

With a ramping up of activity, it's time to get your storm preparations finalized or in gear. With a forecast of a hyperactive season, complacency is not an option.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, June 17, 2024 13:48PM PDT - First storm?
Although a hyper-active season is forecasted we still don't have our first named storm. According to Brian McNoldy's blog this is the lates since 2014, when the first storm formed on July 1. But now we have two areas of interest:

The first one (Invest 91L) is not surprisingly in the Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean has been plenty warm for a long time now. It is not moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to make landfall as a web storm in Mexico. At this time it is not expected to drift too much north so that it would make landfall in Texas.

The other area of interest is east of the Bahamas. The NHC gives it a low chance of becoming something, but it is expected to make landfall in Florida/Georgia or North Carolina. The storm is not as wet as 91L. See below the 7 day forecast from NHC. Just a little teaser for us, to make us aware of what will eventually head our way. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

- - - Seven Day Forecast (June 17, see NHC for the current one) - - -

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 20:00PM EDT - Quiet now but....

Good soggy evening from St. Thomas, VI,

Not a tropical storm or depression but the blobs over the VI and the DR are producing heavy downpours and a flash flood warning is in effect here per the NWS until 8 pm tonight. Puerto Rico has seen some heavy rains especially on the eastern end as well. Our water and power authority has been having major issues (they have for the 35 years I have been here so nothing has changed there) but the outages are not caused by the storms. This does not help the stormy situation and bodes ill going into hurricane season.

Speaking of which, as shared previously by Gert and myself, it portends to be an active, if not hyperactive season. So far, surprisingly enough, there have been no named storms or even depressions. That's due mainly to very strong wind shear, a low lying jet stream assisting that wind shear, and the omnipresent Saharan Dust, which has been layered across the tropical Atlantic so far. However, these features do not affect the GOMEX and the SW Caribbean as much and that's where the "fun" might begin starting next week as the jet stream and accompanying wind shear lift off to the north.

So, in a nutshell, look for the possibility of activity moving into South Florida next week to start from the SW Caribbean, followed by another possibility from the third or fourth tropical wave coming from Africa. The Florida possibility could actually be moved west to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama but the high is not forecast to be strong enough to shove it that far. Either way, it portends to be a wet middle of next week and maybe stormy depending. A bit early to tell. The initial waves coming across the Atlantic will almost but not definitely get beat up by the wind shear and Saharan Dust but they are the vanguard taking one for the team, clearing the way forward.

So look for some probable activity the last few weeks of June to jumpstart the season. As always, awareness, not complacency is necessary. Just because it has started off negligible does not mean it will stay that way and will take only one to remind you. It's time still to get prepared, a plan ready, pets, kids, parents and neighbors, etc... This is not an alarmist message. This is the truth. Having been through every storm here in the VI but 2 since 1989, plus a few Florida ones in recent years, I can attest. Marilyn, Irma and Maria. Pretty names. Destructive and deadly natures.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles 
east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough of low 
pressure. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some 
gradual development of this system during the next few days while it 
moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to 
approach the coast of the southeastern United States by the latter 
part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system 
through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward or 
northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jun 18 18:47]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 18 7:08]
- St.Thomas [Jun 17 18:20]
- Barbados [Jun 15 23:05]
- Nevis [Jun 14 19:05]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 10 15:36]
- Antigua [Jun 4 11:50]
- St.Lucia [Jun 1 14:17]
- Bermuda [May 19 6:24]
- Puerto Rico [May 14 21:09]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 8 13:42]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 8 5:59]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert