Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (20:45 UTC, 27 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Sunday, July 8, 2018 08:49AM EDT - 1 Up and 1 down

Good morning,

While beautiful weather is here in central Pennsylvania, the same cannot be said off the coast of the Carolinas and soon, the mid to northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

Closest to home, we have TS Beryl, once the Atlantics first hurricane of the 2018 season. About 190 miles ENE of Barbados as of 8 am this morning, the second smallest TS on record in the Atlantic basin is moving at a motivated 20 mph towards the WNW putting it on a collision course with Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique. With wind shear increasing ahead plus a healthy ingestation of dry Saharan dust to it's north, TS Beryl will be on life support very soon. Its anticipated to drop to a TD just before tonight or after passing through the island chain. The islands will see some gusty, squally rains and wind gusts to maybe 50 mphÂwith accumulations in isolated spots of 4-6 inches but at her current forward speed, these spots should be a rarity. Regardless, these islands do not need Beryl as recovering from Hurricane Irma has been a slow progression. Some have no power still nor roofs. Further down the line, St. Croix will be the closest to Beryl's core, about 60 miles with again, squally and gusty rains and winds. Puerto Rico's SW coast and Hispaniola might see higher rain accumulations as well. By then, Beryl should have been disconnected from life support and officially become a remnant low of her former self.

Farther out east, a new wave have fell off the African continent drawing scant attention with Beryl and Chris in the picture already. Later on this one around 14W.

Off the Carolinas, about 150 milesÂsouth of Cape Hatteras lies a lurking TS named Chris. Set to sit and spin for a few days due to weak, almost non existent steering currents, Chris is eventually expected to be swept up by a mid week trough and carried outÂto the Canadian Maritimes possibly affecting Halifax and St. Johns with rains saved for a later date with the UK. Main effects continue for the Carolinas in the form of increasing beach erosion, strong dangerous rip currents and scattered pockets of rain. At this time, no US landfalls are predicted although there are a couple spaghetti models making landfall around Rhode Island and Boston. These are in the 1-3% category.

Either way, for both of these systems, it's a good time to get your seasonal hurricane preparations up to speed.ÂThrow out the old stuff expired from last years hurricane kit. Update with fresh. Even bottled water goes stale.

DaveÂ

Friday, July 6, 2018 18:35PM EDT - July Storm Trio?

Good afternoon,

I am traveling so this will be short as my layover is very short.

Hurricane Beryl, small, compact and the little engine that could and did, is making a bee line for the island of Dominica as a Category 1 hurricane and the first of the 2018 Atlantic season. Beryl strengthened quite rapidly, going from TD to hurricane in just over 18 hours and it is possible, maybe probable that Beryl will reach Cat 2 in the next day or so.

Beryl is not expected to grow in leaps and bounds and it also entirely possible it could slip in between islands due to its small, compact size. It also could actually drop down to TS status before it reaches the islands. With that said tomorrow will be a teller as there is much uncertainty with a storm of midget proportions. It can ramp up quickly; it can drop just as quickly, especially if it ingests some yummy Saharan dust to it's north. Chugging along at 15 mph, whatever Beryl remains or becomes remains to be seen. Heavy rainfall will definitely be an issue along it's path although that rain will be in a narrow range.

Computer models are in good agreement of the forecast track and for the VI, Beryl should remain far to the south but still throw some gusty winds and rain squalls our way. Something Dominica and Guadeloupe do not need, especially with the ,mountainous terrain and valleys.

Soon to be TS Chris is making a rambling, wandering appearance off the NC coast but eventually evacuating the area off the outer banks as the second hurricane of July. main effects as it's not supposed to make landfall will be high surf, rip currents, beach erosion, and heavy rain along the NC coast.

Rounding out the spectrum could be the possibility of Debby making her entrance on the stage this July, spawned from the latest tropical wave to hit the Atlantic off the coast of Africa.ÂHer short term potential trek takes her more northerlyÂat this time but time will tell.

Please prepare!! Even if you do not get affected, it will be a good practice run! More detail tomorrow. Have to catch a plane!!

DaveÂ



Friday, July 6, 2018 10:09AM PDT - Hurricane Beryl
Greetings from the Netherlands! Tropical Depression 2 has surprisingly become a hurricane. Quite unusual for a storm that far east this early in the season. It is a very small storm, with hurricane force winds extending only 10 miles outward from the center. Nevertheless, it might strengthen a bit more and even become a Category 2 storm before it reaches the islands. Right now it is forecasted to cross the island chain at Dominica late Sunday/early Monday. Just what they need... It should be moving fast, so not much time to drop a lot of rain, but still... Because it is such a small storm its intensity is hard to forecast, so hopefully it won't be more than a Cat-2, but actually lower. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jul 19 0:09]
- Nevis [Jul 15 18:11]
- Dominica [Jul 13 13:00]
- Bonaire [Jul 13 8:31]
- Haiti [Jul 12 7:16]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 11 6:45]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- St.John [Jul 9 9:45]
- Anguilla [Jul 9 9:43]
- St.Thomas [Jul 9 9:17]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 9 9:11]
- Martinique [Jul 9 7:27]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
- Antigua [Jul 9 6:22]
- Barbados [Jul 9 4:50]
- Montserrat [Jul 8 20:19]
- Grenada [Jul 8 7:20]
- St.Lucia [Jul 7 16:47]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 10 23:25]
- Cayman Islands [May 28 14:20]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert