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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Martin | Nicole | Owen | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:10 UTC, 12 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

94L Invest:

Thursday, June 23, 2022 08:35AM EDT - CV Early Interest

Good day,

Historically we look closer to the mainland, Gulf of Mexico, and the SW Caribbean for early season troublemakers tropical wise however, we now have an AOI or area of interest not yet dubbed 94L, but probably will be soon just off the coast of Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands.

Forecast to trot across the Atlantic's MDR aka Main Development Region at a modest 15mph, it's development, if any, will be slow to occur due to still relatively cool water temperatures and it's proximity to the ITCZ or the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone that straddles the equator about 10 degrees on either side. It is far enough south though to avoid serious entanglement with the storm protection system we call Saharan Dust which is not very thick at the moment anyway. A wave out in front as Isabel pointed out last night will help pave the way ahead, moisturizing the atmosphere helping to create a protective cocoon for this potential early season systems development. Again, this will be a slow process.

Looking ahead by mid next week, if our early season contender manages to escape the ITCZ and take advantage of the earth's spin, we could have a modest tropical system to contend with. It's path, long term projection wise, would take it through the southern Windward Islands, into the central Caribbean and finally ending up Central America visiting Guatemala, Honduras and Belize. Due to it's far south probability, even islands not used to a plethora of tropical activity like Trinidad/Tobago, Grenada, and even the ABC islands will need to pay closer attention than is customary for them especially since rotating around the globe atmospheric conditions at that time, will be in a favorable spot to enhance any development.

The other scenario is if it manages to spin up much quicker how far more northerly would it go? There it would have to contend with cooler water temperatures, hostile wind shear and our saharan dust shield.

Time will tell but this is an early season heads up of the season to come. If a seedling so far east was to form this early in the season, it does not really bode well for the rest of the season. So, with that in mind, and we are in season already, it's time for preparation if you haven't started. Replace outdated supplies you already have from last year. Check your evac plans. Review that checklist and make sure everyone in your household knows what to do. Yes, seems mundane and yes it takes some time out of our hectic lives to do so but it will save a lot in the long run and quite possibly yours or someone else's life.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Sunday, June 5, 2022 11:03AM PDT - Alex
This morning the tropical depression was finally upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex. Right now winds are 60mph, with a bit more strengthening possible. However, it is not likely to become a hurricane. On the other hand, it is forecasted to pass pretty close by Bermuda tomorrow, with a closest point of approach of the center of only 75 miles in 24 hours. It will pass north of the island. Strongest winds are on the east and northeast side, so will be felt on the island before the center passes. Tropical storm warnings are in effect already. Bermuda can handle this easily, but still, be prepared, weird things can and will happen. -Gert

Friday, June 3, 2022 19:49PM EDT - Still PTC 1 but Alex eventually

Good evening all,

PTC 1 is continuing to drench SW Florida and the western end to mid parts of Cuba while trekking slowly towards the NE at a paltry 7 mph with top winds at 40 mph and virtually all of the convection to the east of the pseudo center. There is an elongated area considered the center but not totally closed off so hence, no TD, TS or name designation. It really doesn't matter as what you see coming on radar into South Florida south of Orlando. The tropical diet for the next say 36 hours south of I-4 includes: gusty winds, flash flooding, Tstorms with associated heavy rains, isolated tornadoes possible of the EF0/EF1 variety, and sporadic power outages. Maybe an EF2 as well. Wind shear is the saving grace for all as it is preventing consolidation and intensification. This will continue after the system crosses Florida, hounds an already saturated Northern Bahamas, and might even roll the dice with Bermuda if it can hold itself together. Thats not to say areas north of I-4 will not get in on some of the action but it will be limited unless there is a more drastic change in course.

92L is going poof and will pass quietly as wind shear will pick up to inopportune levels thereby sounding the death knell of this wannabe WSW of Bermuda. Maybe later in the season both of these systems would have had major impacts but fortunately that is not the case. However, they may be a harbinger of things to come. Soon to be Alex is a good reminder of the season ahead and that reminder should be heeded.

Off to the east of the Caribbean, waters are warming and temps are rising. The omnipresent Saharan Dust Layer will continue to be the annual early season protector but even then, a system can slip though if low enough or a generous envelope of moisture surrounds and cocoons it from the dust. Tropical waves have started and with a wetter environment over the Sahel, one is bound to slip through eventually.

Stay safe, prepared and have a good weekend. SF, turn around, don't drown.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical 
depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. 
This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the 
tropical Atlantic and approach the Windward Islands by early next 
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form early next week over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico.  Any development of this system would 
likely be slow to occur as it drifts westward in the north central 
or northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jun 24 19:55]
- St.Lucia [Jun 23 21:17]
- St.Thomas [Jun 23 20:45]
- Dominica [Jun 20 16:15]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 14 13:21]
- Barbados [Jun 11 15:53]
- Antigua [Jun 3 9:12]
- Nevis [Jun 1 21:20]
- Barbuda [Jun 1 6:05]
- Montserrat [May 29 19:37]
- Haiti [May 29 10:38]
- Cayman Islands [May 22 9:01]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 17 18:49]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert