Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Karen, Tropical Storm Jerry
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:50 UTC, 25 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Karen tools:
Jerry tools:

Update:
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Sunday, September 22, 2019 09:01AM EDT - TS Karen

Good Sunday morning all,

Lurking far to the south while hurricane, now TS Jerry commanded the spotlight, 99L quietly crept across the Atlantic with not much to show for itself as an impending named storm until this early this morning. This very ragged mess was found to have a closed circulation and is now TS Karen, the 11th named storm of this busy tropical season.

TS Karen is now located just to the north of Tobago and is dumping heavy rains with major flash flooding ongoing at Scarborough, Tobago and other points on this small island while moving WNW at approx. 9 mph. Her TS force winds stretch out close to 125 miles but not in all directions as this is not the picture of a classic tropical storm. In fact it is quite the mess right now. See to the right of this screen and you can click on reports from our all volunteer network from all the islands being impacted now and down the road as TS Karen is expected to make a NW then NNW turn and make a beeline for Puerto Rico, the BVI's and the US Virgin Islands.

Once entering the southeastern Caribbean and making the expected turn due to a weakness left behind by Jerry, strong wind shear will continue to be Karen's kryptonite as she moves up the western side of the windward islands. While not strengthening quickly, her TS force winds and heavy rains will still reach many of the islands necessitating more tropical storm watches and warnings with watches expected to be posted for the northern Leewards tonight. This will also cause rip currents and beach erosion on the pristine and usually protected western facing beaches of these beautiful islands.

Forecast at this moment to still be a weak but slowly intensifying TS by the time it reaches the northern Leewards on Tuesday, I myself would prepare for a possible Cat 1 hurricane as the wind shear is forecast to weaken considerably plus an anti-cyclone (a large scale circulation of winds around a high pressure system) is forecast to form over Karen which would assist strengthening due to improved outflow or ventilation channels.Â

After Karen passes the islands, it's northward trek will be in danger; so will the US East Coast. A strong high pressure ridge is expected to drop down and force Karen to stall, the abruptly turn to the west which makes the Bahamas, Florida and the GOM entrants into Karen's plans. At what point she turns, if at all, and how intense she will get, remains to be seen. The T&C, Bahamas, SE coast and even the GOM should be wary of this one.Â

TS Jerry is still lumbering along but is expected to pass to the north of Bermuda late Tuesday. Jerry looks stronger on satellite imagery and I wouldn't be surprised if he regains minimal Cat 1 strength one more time before visiting the North Atlantic graveyard.

Off to the far east, 90L, just off the coast of Africa looks to be the 12th named storm of this season and that will be Lorenzo. Strengthening quickly, 90L should be either a TD or probably named Lorenzo by 5pm or 8 pm tonight. This system had strong model consensus for development while it was still several days over land. I doubt it will let them down. Forecast to become a hurricane and possible a major, it is fortunately supposed to become an OTS (out to sea) or "fish storm". Let's hope so. Right now the Cabo Verde Islands will receive it's rainy wrath.

Septembers not even over yet and we will have 12 named storms already with 69 more days to go officially in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. For now though, we watch Jerry and Karen with wary, vigilant and apprehensive eyes.

Be safe and prepared!

Dave

Virus-free. www.avg.com

Friday, September 20, 2019 14:02PM PDT - Jerry and more
Jerry looks a little better than earlier today, but it doesn't look like a 'nice' hurricane, which is good! See this loop (pop-up, same as above in the tool section) for example. Winds are 80 mph, so 'just' a Category 1 hurricane. Current location is about 120 miles from Anguilla, 136 miles from Barbuda and 130 miles from St.Maarten/St.Martin, near their closest point of approach. The islands should be well out of hurricane force winds, but might experience tropical storm force winds, so expect gusty conditions as the storm moves by tonight. Judging from the advection south of the storm (see satellite picture above), the rain might be the biggest problem with this storm. Right now it is moving forward at a nice clip of 18 mph, so it should be over soon for the Leeward Islands. Read the latest reports by our special hurricane correspondents by selecting one of the islands from the list on the right. Currently the forecasted track takes it really close to Bermuda, that is still cleaning up from Humberto's brush. Current closest point of approach is only 5 miles (!) on Wednesday... Hopefully the track will change a bit in the meantime. It is expected to be a weak hurricane by then, but you never know with these intensity forecasts.

Elsewhere, the blob near Hispaniola is still there. It doesn't look like it going to become a tropical cyclone, but it has been dumping rain for a few days now in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, which can not be good. But I haven't heard any worrying stories from that region, so maybe it is not too bad...

Then there is Invest 97L east of Barbados, that one is expected to move quickly over the Windward Islands (down south) this weekend as a tropical wave.

Finally, the NHC is mentioning potential development of a tropical wave that is still on the African continent, giving it a 70% chance to develop into something in the next 5 days... Pretty scary you'd think. However, both the GFS and ECMWF show it veer north well before it reaches the islands. Hope that holds true! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms continue
to become better organized in association with a low pressure
system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Continued development
of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form tonight or on Monday while the disturbance
moves generally westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to
20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.  Regardless of development, this
system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands as it passes to the
south of the area on Monday and early Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 22 18:03]
- St.Thomas [Sep 22 16:38]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 22 15:17]
- Grenada [Sep 22 15:15]
- Barbados [Sep 22 13:43]
- Dominica [Sep 22 7:20]
- St.Lucia [Sep 22 5:25]
- Bahamas [Sep 22 4:01]
- St.Croix [Sep 21 23:28]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 21 17:43]
- Anguilla [Sep 21 12:45]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 21 8:31]
- Nevis [Sep 20 12:22]
- Montserrat [Sep 19 21:50]
- Antigua [Sep 19 21:04]
- Bermuda [Sep 19 20:54]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 9:51]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 3 16:25]
- Martinique [Sep 3 11:08]
- Florida Keys [Sep 2 9:08]
- Belize [Sep 1 13:07]
- St.John [Aug 29 19:51]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 29 2:22]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 28 14:59]
- Haiti [Aug 19 13:55]
- Saba [Aug 19 9:20]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



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The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert