Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Michael | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (20:20 UTC, 24 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
Friday, April 5, 2019 09:51AM PDT - Normal season ahead?
- It is that time of the year again that Klotzbach et al., researchers at Colorado State issue their forecast of Atlantic Hurricane activity. They expect this season to be slightly below normal, with 13 named storms (12.1 is normal), 5 hurricanes (6.4 is normal) of which 2 become major (Category 3 or higher, 2.7 is normal). The probability for at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a large area) is 39% (42% is normal).
The big question mark is as usually if El Nino conditions occur this Summer, which suppresses hurricane formation and strengthening. Right now we are in an El Nino, and although models are all over the place, most predict that the El Nino will still be there later this year. Good for us! Also, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are a bit below normal, which is good as well.
They also issued an Excel spreadsheet with landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America region. Below is the top 7 of the chance that at least one tropical storm (TS), hurricane (H) or major hurricane (MH) will track within 50 miles. I sorted the list by hurricane.
Region TS H MH
Bahamas, The 68% 41% 22%
Cuba 66% 40% 20%
Mexico 74% 40% 14%
Dominican Republic 40% 24% 8%
Haiti 35% 19% 9%
Antigua and Barbuda 32% 19% 7%
Cayman Islands 32% 19% 7%
As always, take these forecasts not too serious. They are not set in stone for sure, esp. the April forecast has modest skill. Nevertheless, it is nice to hear that it will probably be an about normal season, better than a forecast that predicts a highly active season. In any case, keep in mind that just one hurricane in your backyard will spoil your whole season! We still have to prepare as best as we can. A good time to start checking your hurricane shutters, possible flying/falling hazards around your house, emergency supplies, etc., is now. -Gert
Monday, March 18, 2019 10:55AM PDT - Mozambique
- March 19 Update: The situation is still quite dire, check out this comprehensive article in the Washington Post. Good places to donate: Crisis Relief - United Nations, Medecins sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) or Unicef.
Not a place where you would normally expect a hurricane, but cyclone Idai made landfall in Mozambique (east coast of Africa) last week. Now reports are coming out that the death toll could be as high as 1,000. It seems that the storm surge, not the wind itself, was the most deadly factor... More news on Google News. -Gert
Thursday, February 7, 2019 15:53PM PST - Hurricanes getting stronger faster
- It has been awhile, but I saw this interesting article in the Washington Post about a paper just published in the scientific journal Nature Communications on rapid intensification of hurricanes. We have seen it unfortunately with Irma and Maria 2 years ago, where a hurricane would all of a sudden be much stronger than forecasted. Now researchers have indeed found that hurricanes these days seem to intensify faster than earlier. They blame the warmer sea surface temperatures caused by climate change.... Quoting Jim Kossin from NOAA: "More rapidly intensifying storms means both that there are more strong storms overall, but also that there are more risky situations near land. Rapid intensification is exceedingly dangerous because people, they’re not warned adequately, they’re not prepared, many of them don’t evacuate.” Evacuation is often a moot point for us in the Caribbean, but indeed, this does not bode well for our future. Let's just hope that the forecasted El Nino, which dampens hurricane activity, will last all the way through September... -Gert
- - - Click on picture for enlargement - - -
Monday, November 12, 2018 20:45PM EST
Have not posted lately due to numerous personal events so sorry if you have missed my posts and updates. However, I am still here! Thanks to Gert for holding my end up!
Potential named storm Patty, now 96L, is located a few hundred miles to the east of Guadeloupe as a discombobulated, wind sheared system. Moving to the WNW at about 8 mph, 96L is naked below the waist, aka south of the low pressure center, due to the wind shear force field that has been protecting the island chain all year long. This means almost all of the strong thunderstorms and winds are to the north of the "center". Winds are approx. 35 miles an hour technically meaning TD status but there is no defined closed circulation hence still it remains a strong tropical wave, at this time.
Due to the strong wind shear, 96L is not expected to develop around the northern Leeward Islands but will drop 1-6 inches of rain with gusty winds and angry up to 10-12 foot seas. Down the road, wind shear will lessen and the seas will be a bit warmer leading to probable Patty named status, giving the Turks and Caicos and maybe the lower Bahamas some worries. But, that should be the extent as a strong front coming off the coast should intercept probable Patty and turn her out to sea, giving Bermuda a dousing on the fast track by while the Florida coast breathes a late season sigh of relief.
For those who wonder where all the rain is coming from all of a sudden, November is one of our historically rainiest months. The rains are not surprising and neither is a late season spin up. Official season ends in 18 days. It has been so far, a lucky year here around the eastern Caribbean as the continuous wind shield just to our east has been a formidable adversary to approaching systems since May.
Stay safe and stay blessed.
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Apr 17 11:44]
- Anguilla [Apr 17 10:58]
- St.Thomas [Apr 16 14:47]
- Grenada [Apr 13 6:38]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Apr 5 9:26]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Mar 12 19:33]
- Barbados [Jan 21 8:44]
- Dominica [Dec 30 8:20]
- St.Lucia [Dec 4 20:45]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 17:52]
- Antigua [Nov 11 20:00]
- St.John [Nov 9 1:30]
- Curaçao [Oct 18 19:03]
- Belize [Oct 7 10:21]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 28 10:39]
- Martinique [Sep 28 8:38]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 20:53]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 16 23:25]
- Montserrat [Sep 12 21:52]
- Haiti [Sep 7 7:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 6 9:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 28 12:19]
- Bonaire [Aug 17 5:51]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to firstname.lastname@example.org. Gert