Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Francine | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Milton | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Kirk, Hurricane Leslie
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (12:40 UTC, 14 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Kirk tools:
Leslie tools:
92L Invest:

Thursday, October 3, 2024 09:33AM PDT - Leslie
A new day, a new storm it seems. Tropical Storm Leslie formed in the far eastern Atlantic behind Hurricane Kirk. It is sitting pretty low at just 10N, but although it is currently moving west, Leslie is expected to follow Kirk and veer north well before reaching the islands. It might still become a Category 2 hurricane or more. Kirk meanwhile has become a major hurricane, and might even reach Category 4 status. Maybe the islands will get some swell from this storm. But nothing major, I like storms like this. Two more down. There might be something developing in the bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico, but that will not affect us. Stay safe! -Gert

Monday, September 30, 2024 06:27AM EDT - Home grown

Good morning,

First prayers and condolences for all who were in the path of Hurricane Helene. I think when all is said and tallied, she will rival Katrina for the amount of destruction she caused not only to whole towns and villages but also the infrastructure. I see her retirement from the hurricane name list as well.

TS Isaac has no worries on retirement this year as he continues to roll around the open Atlantic and should be relegated today or tomorrow morning to a depression then back to his beginnings as an open trough.TD Joyce also should go poof today and is no threat to any land as she heads NNE to the colder Atlantic.

TD 12 looks to become our next hurricane and a major at that by Friday. Soon to be Hurricane Kirk, now traveling mainly west, is expected to take a turn to the WNW in a couple days and keep trucking that way which is great news for the islands and the Caribbean. A couple troughs coming off the east coast should keep him away from the mainland but too early to tell with certainty at this point. Should keep an eye on him though in case he doesn't gain latitude.

The wave that is just behind TD 12 is more of a low rider which will definitely bear watching this week after TD 12 pulls away. The other area to watch is the same area where Hurricane Helene was spawned in the NW Caribbean and GOMEX. She didn't spend much time lingering around and as such, not much upwelling occurred so this one will have plenty of bath water to work with too. This is where some of the home grown ones start their antics come October and November, sometimes with little notice unlike a Cabo Verde system.

So, just as we get rid of 3 we are probably gonna have 2-3 to follow shortly. Let them all stay out to sea please. Better updates to follow as the forecast and the storms themselves progress.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave.

Saturday, September 28, 2024 10:31AM PDT - Three storms!
I am back! In spite of the ominous season forecast, not much has happened in my 3+ week of absence! And although there are 3 active storms right now, we in the Caribbean are still doing fine! Thanks to Dave for holding the fort while I was away.

Helene is of course the big story. Another storm that rapidly intensified to a Category 4 storm due to the above average seawater temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Added to the devastation was the big storm surge that due to the topography of the Big Bend region of Florida where it made landfall. The curvature of the coastline made it so that the water could basically only go onshore and not escape easily by spreading out along the coast. For more discussions on Helene see Yale's Eye on the Storm blog (Jeff Masters/Bob Henson), Brian McNoldy's blog or Michael Lowry's blog.

The second active storm is Isaac and the only hurricane. It is in the north central Atlantic and moving away (east) of us. It should keep a safe distance from the Azores as well. Joyce is about 1100 miles east of us, and is luckily for us curving north well before it reaches the islands. Joyce is struggling with a lot of vertical wind shear right now and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 2.5 days.

A tropical wave that came of the African coast and is now near the Cape Verde islands is the next system for us to watch. Looking at the ECMWF model forecast it looks like this low might become something by next Friday/Saturday, but will veer north well before it reaches the islands. The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next 7 days.

There is also an area of interest in the Western Caribbean Sea. It is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico so should not bother us. Formation chances in the next 7 days are only 40%.

That's it! It seems like a lot going on, but for us, not much too worry about. Let's keep it this way. However, I fear that with these above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that we might get an active tail of the season... Although the 'historical peak' of the season is past us, it is not over yet! -Gert

Thursday, September 26, 2024 08:34AM EDT - Helene

Good morning,

While not a part of the Caribbean, Helene was spawned in the Caribbean courtesy of the CAG (Central American Gyre). This post will be short but not sweet. Helene will be a devastating entity, not just along the coast but well inland. Basically affecting the entire states of Florida and Georgia reaching into the southern Appalachians

The cone you see on TV is just a direct path based on the model projections. Outside this cone, is the real story. Helene is huge. She has about 16 hours before landfall to become a Cat 3, maybe a Cat 4 if rapid intensification continues. Storm surge will be the killer upon landfall. The winds, flooding rainfall, and probable tornadoes will be far reaching upon impact and for hundreds of miles inland. Power outages will be massive. So will the landscape damage inland.

Dry air intrusion from the west has limited Helene's ability, at this moment anyway, to fully realize her potential. However, she has reached the Cat 2 threshold of 100 mph sustained winds per hurricane hunters recon. Storm surge, upon landfall is expected to be 10-20 ft which translates to 1-2 stories building wise.

Bottom line, I see Helene will be farther east landfalling based on satellite and radar imagery which will bring more catastrophic effects to Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando and even the east coast through Georgia. But weather, being the inexact science it is, makes up it's own mind and could just follow the cone or even go a bit west late.

Finish preparations, be aware constantly, and evacuate if necessary. Long range models show something similar the first week of October as well. Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave.

Saturday, September 21, 2024 09:55AM EDT - Uncertainty with certainty

Good morning,

The subject is a come see, come sah moment. We have several areas of interest in the Atlantic and the NW Caribbean with the Atlantic being the come sah moment and the NW Caribbean, the come see moment.

First, the Atlantic. Invest 96L, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, will possibly become a TD at some point as it travels slowly towards the NW then N, eventually being picked up and carried into Portugal and Spain as a strong extra tropical system. Chances are slim though and a fish storm for the time being.

The remnants of TS Gordon retain the possibility of regeneration while moving at a paltry speed mainly NW over 1,000 miles to the SW of the Azores in the mid Atlantic. Again, chances are slim though while also retaining his designation as a fish storm, with no threat to land masses.

A low rider tropical wave will be something to watch in the coming days as it exits the African coast. Lingering Saharan Dust lurks to its north so as it climbs slowly to the WNW, development, while probable, will be slow.

Now, the come see moment. The NW Caribbean in the area of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula is experiencing a CAG event (Central American Gyre), basically a large area of broad low pressure usually found in early season and then Oct and Nov. This event creates a large rain and breezy event along the Central American coast. It also spawns and spins off potential tropical systems as well. The NHC is anticipating a spin off this coming week into the Gulf of Mexico where land interaction is inevitable as the only escape route would be through the Straits of Florida, probability, if a system formed, is less than 1%.

Current major models are in disagreement on timing but fairly in agreement on land impact, again as of this moment. What development and status it reaches is anyone's guess not to mention, where it will impact the gulf coast. Wind shear is negligible while SST's (sea surface temperatures) are extremely conducive in the Gulf. A dipping, steering jet stream combined with high pressure drifting eastward looks to pull whatever develops N then NE with an early looking landfall in the current year's storm magnet, the Big Bend of Florida. The weaker the storm development, the possible land interaction will be farther west. The stronger and quicker development, the farther east it will be pulled.

All along the gulf coast from Texas to Florida should be paying attention to this potential September storm, probably named Helene unless one of the Atlantic systems get their act together quicker. "I" storms are the most retired names in hurricane history. The next "I" is Isaac. We do not need another "I" retirement. The NHC has been focused on this possibility in the Gulf for several days now so it is not something to dismiss. Tampa, your shield might need to be raised if a more easterly than NE track manifests itself. Just saying.

Stay safe, prepared and not scared.

Dave.


... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually 
becoming better organized.  Development of this system is expected, 
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or 
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico.  By early next week, the system is forecast to move 
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf 
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely.  Interests on 
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the  Florida Peninsula, the Florida 
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of 
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could 
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over 
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Monday or Tuesday.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic.  The system is expected to move near or 
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests 
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Oct 4 23:36]
- Nevis [Oct 3 11:48]
- St.Thomas [Oct 2 9:50]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Oct 1 8:13]
- Barbados [Sep 26 20:37]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 25 9:33]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 23 15:17]
- Antigua [Sep 20 20:52]
- Dominica [Sep 11 12:57]
- Bermuda [Aug 18 7:09]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 14 20:22]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 13 20:23]
- Anguilla [Aug 13 15:43]
- Saba [Aug 13 15:30]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 13 6:24]
- Montserrat [Aug 12 18:38]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 21 19:38]
- Relief Efforts/Where to Donate [Jul 11 14:32]
- Jamaica [Jul 7 9:28]
- Grenada [Jul 7 6:43]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 4 18:47]
- Aruba [Jul 2 13:05]
- St.Lucia [Jul 2 9:55]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert