Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Website sponsored by: Gobeach Vacations where stormCARIB began:

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (21:30 UTC, 18 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Thursday, April 9, 2026 09:43AM PDT - Below average hurricane season?

Today the first hurricane forecast for the 2026 season was published by Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University. They predict a slightly below average hurricane season with 13 named storms (14.4 is normal), 6 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 2 might become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, 3.2 is normal). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is estimated at 90 (123 is normal). This index measures the combined strength and duration of all storms in a season. The probability for at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean (a large area) is 35% (47% is normal).

The main suppressing factor playing this season is the development of a possibly super El Nino later this season (see for example this Eye on the Storm blog post by Henson and Masters, Yale Climate Connections). An El Nino usually suppresses hurricane formation due to stronger vertical wind shear and lower humidity in the atmosphere. The forecast could have been even lower if it wasn't for the above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic (although temperatures are a bit cooler in the eastern tropical Atlantic (closer to Africa) due to stronger than normal trade winds). In 2023 we had a similar battle between El Nino and high sea surface temperatures. Unfortunately climate change won that year. Hopefully this year El Nino will win out.

Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2020). Full list, incl. US States can be found here. Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit. Even though your probability is low, it doesn't mean you are out of the woods. Remember in 2024, Grenada had only 1% probability, but it did get hit that year with monster storm Beryl. So even if your chances are low, there is still a chance!

Tropical Storm Risk (EuroTempest) just came out with their forecast as well. That one looks even better. They expect a well below (40%) average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and just one major hurricane. They base it on the same factors, strong El Nino and near average sea surface temperatures. NOAA's forecast is expected late May. Also, please note that these early forecasts are not very reliable, so don't place too much trust in them.

Right now not much is going on. But we know storms will come each year. Now is a good time to get ready! Check your hurricane shutters, buy some extra canned food and water, etc. You know what to do, it is not your first time! Stay safe! -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):

en Español

Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 13 20:43]
- St.Thomas [Apr 13 10:31]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Apr 4 6:28]
- Nevis [Apr 3 11:00]
- Anguilla [Mar 22 13:00]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Mar 22 10:03]
- Montserrat [Mar 22 10:00]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 22:25]
- Bermuda [Nov 6 9:39]
- Jamaica [Nov 3 20:15]
- Haiti [Oct 31 7:21]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 29 13:35]
- Dominica [Oct 28 1:01]
- Antigua [Oct 27 19:07]
- Aruba [Oct 26 15:21]
- Vieques (PR) [Oct 25 18:33]
- Dominican Republic [Oct 24 11:19]
- Barbados [Oct 20 14:41]
- Saba [Oct 10 10:59]
- Guadeloupe [Oct 10 7:53]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 24 16:34]
- Bahamas [Aug 19 13:32]
- St.John [Aug 18 10:20]
- St.Lucia [May 13 14:51]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Radar Loops (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x

- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.

WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.

GoBeach Vacations
- Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! -
www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com

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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert