Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good morning,

It has been a very inauspicious first half of the 2026 Atlantic tropical season so far starting with a new record for no hurricanes forming since the beginning of official season back on June 1st. The pre season forecasts of a Super El Nino have manifested themselves unleashing high wind shear across most of the Atlantic MDR, mostly headed east, while our other favorite suppression method, Saharan Dust coming from the east, hasn't let up much at all yet. The dust levels usually start to decline in September but not this year.

While this is great news, so far, for hurricane prone regions in the Atlantic and Caribbean, the exact opposite has happened, as was forecast for the Eastern Pacific with Hawaii receiving the brunt of the action. There is one good thing that hurricanes do and that's to help ventilate the earth's heat quantity. Too bad they all cannot be fish storms while doing so. Tropical Storm Fay will remain a fish storm but unlikely to be crowned the first hurricane of the Atlantic this year.

TS Fay is about 450 miles to the SW of the Azores while meandering a paltry 5 mph with 45 mph winds. A compact system, Fay is forecast to strengthen to a mid level 60 mph before running into unfavorable conditions Monday into Tuesday dissipating to a remnant low leftover.I wouldn't be surprised if she reached a bit higher first due to her slow forward speed.

Meanwhile, the African wave train is remaining active and, as Isabel alluded to, the next few months might bring an unwelcome change. Lowriders continue to sneak in under the dust wave while also avoiding the bulk of the wind shear. The dust will diminish thereby reducing our protection while hopefully allowing some much needed rain to fall on our drought stricken Leeward and Windward islands.

Also, as discussed way back in June, homegrown storms might be the norm as we head into October/November with the SW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico/America, and the east coast of the US the prime staging areas. Long term models suggest a potential spin up in the SW Caribbean around Sept. 28th so we will see. They are used for potential and projections and are not used to concretely forecast, nor should they be.

We still have approx. 9 weeks to go in the official hurricane season for 2026 so now is not the time to let your guard down and complacency rears its ugly head.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant.

Dave.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hanna, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Beven

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