2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (08:00 UTC, 24 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Monday, July 6, 2020 08:59AM PDT - Edouard
- Last night Tropical Depression Five was upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard. It is currently well south of Newfoundland, yes, quite up north indeed. The storm is moving fast over the open Atlantic, and is no threat to land. It might cause some unsettling weather in Ireland or the UK later.
There are two other areas of interest, one near Florida (Gulf side) which we don't have to worry about in the Caribbean, however, it may reappear over water on the 'other side' in the Atlantic and become something. We also have a tropical wave approaching the islands down south. Although currently not forecast to develop into a depression or worth, it will bring some high winds and heavy downpours when it approaches Barbados and the islands beyond. See the satellite image above for its current location. -Gert
Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:23AM EDT
Quick update: Advisories to be issued on TD#5 as of 11am NHC advisory.
Saturday, July 4, 2020 10:16AM EDT
- Edouard maybe already?
Good morning and Happy July 4th America!
A happy 4th it will be weatherwise for the east coast of America as well concerningÂInvest 97L but maybe not so much for Bermuda. Trekking ENE about 15 mph, 97L has about a 60% chance of development into a depression at least, with earlyÂmodel guidance suggesting a peak mid tropical storm of 55-60 mph in about 3 days.The next name on the list will be Edouard in an already early active Atlantic season. Bermuda should start receiving impacts of thunderstorms, high surf, gusty winds, and rip currents tomorrow evening while east coast impacts will be minimal in the way of higher surf and increased rip currents. Then, he will move off to visit Europe to help cool off their heat wave.
The eastern Pacific has picked up as it usually does before the Atlantic and there are several potential areas to watch but none appear to be a threatÂland wise at the moment. A note in the far Western Pacific not reallyÂtropical even for Japan but deadly and wow, what a deluge. Credit to Sayaka Mori in Japan several hours ago: 381 mm of rain fell within 6 hours translating into 2.5 inches an hour aka 15 inches in southern Kyushu. TheÂKuma River has flooded, houses have collapsed and sadly, there is a death toll.
Meanwhile, the GOM and the Caribbean, both east and west, are pretty quiet. Most of the Caribbean, especially the Eastern, could use some rain. The USVI's and BVI's are dry as a bone pretty much. Why? Our two main protectors from storm formation, wind shear and that seemingly omnipresent, drying out the atmosphere Saharan Dust, have been very active so far but as we well know, these will falter as we approach the peak of season, mid August to mid October. With SST's very warm already (the fuel of the storm), wind shear falling, the Saharan Dust level diminishing, and the absence of El Nino in the Pacific, it still looks like an active season ahead. It also looks like some decent rains will start to arrive soon and so will the double edged sword.
Preparation and knowledge is the key to protection of life and property. The property can be replaced. You cannot. Remember, it only takes one. Not 15.
Monday, June 22, 2020 18:39PM PDT - Dust and TD#4
- We have a major Saharan dust event underway on the islands and it is the Talk of the Town. Check out the pictures posted by the special hurricane correspondents on the right. Also see the 'true-color' satellite image below, clearly showing dust over the islands. And it looks like more is on the way later this week! A good source to see images of the Saharan Air Layer is at http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/ (the below image is cropped from the GOES-16 Natural Color one).
Dust is actually good for suppressing hurricanes. It is still a bit early for the Atlantic Cape Verde storms, so hopefully we get some more dust later. Although, dust is not good for people with allergies and/or respiratory illnesses, as Barabar on St.Maarten noted... Nevertheless, Tropical Depression Four just formed in the Atlantic, albeit well north of it, off Cape Cod. It might become a named storm, but it will be of no threat to (is)land (incl. Bermuda). -Gert
Saturday, June 6, 2020 16:59PM EDT
- Cristobal plus
Good afternoon all,
It's highly unusual to find a cone of uncertainty that stretchesÂfrom the GOM all the way well into Canada but that is what TS Cristobals is and continues to be. Heck, the 5 day cone shows Cristobal still a depression over the UP of Michigan! Again highly unlikely but wow how this guy will continue to ramble on well after landfall probably as a very strong system through Canada and the Great Lakes.
First things first though, the Atlantic and the Caribbean. East to NE of Bermuda, a low pressure system could form but it's chances are slim at this time. If it does, it would most likely move NW or WNW which could make things interesting for the NE or Canadian Maritimes. If it does reach named storm status, it would become Dolly. Will Dolly meet up with Cristobal if this scenario plays out? That would be a very interestingÂsituation. However, remote for now.
The rest of the Atlantic and Caribbean are pretty quiet. A few tropical waves are marching across the MDR or Main Development Region of the Atlantic but we don't usually look for much development in this area at this time of year. SST's are running warmer than usual and wind shear is moderate but Saharan Dust is ever present, stifling any early season attempt. The only wave that has any attention is the one that just splashed down off the African coast but that one's main hindrance is it's proximity to the ITCZ or Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Until it escapes to over 10 degrees north, it has minimal chance of doing anything.
Cristobal is poised to become the second land falling named storm of this very early active season. TS Arthur did not make an actual landfall as it's COC or center of circulation did not touch the Outer Banks, coming within about 20 miles of. Cristobal will be dangerous whether a high end tropical storm or a Cat 1 hurricane, which is entirely possible. It has some work to do wants to achieve that rare event in June. It has to seal off the western side from dry air intrusion, slow down a bit in order to consolidate it COC and bring it's windfieldÂin closer to the core. Cristobal is massive so rapid strengthening is remote. Even when the pressures drop, it is so big the wind field might not have time to catch up.Â
That said, Cristobal has a chance for strengthening overnight before land fallÂon Sunday. Whether it does or not, storm surge, rip currents, heavy rain and flooding along with tornadoes are on his menu. It is not a polite menu either. This is not Sunday Brunch. Please evacuate if told too. The effects of this system will be felt over a very large area and will continue to be for days to come.
Preparation and common sense are keys to survival and the aftermath.
Tuesday, June 2, 2020 09:43AM PDT - Cristobal
- Tropical Depression 3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal. This is the first time ever (=since 1851) that 3 named storms have formed this early. 2016 was close, with the third storm forming June 5, and in 2012 the third storm formed on June 17. Don't be fooled, this is a very dangerous storm. Because it is hardly moving it will cause prolonged periods of torrential rainfall in Mexico and Central America. There already have been deaths reported due to flooding in Guatemala and El Salvador. It doesn't look like it will start moving out of the area until Friday... I have shifted the satellite image above a bit more to the west to get a better view at this storm. -Gert
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Surface observations along with satellite and radar data indicate
that an area of low pressure located about 50 miles east of
Wilmington, North Carolina, is gradually becoming better defined.
The associated showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized,
however, and are mostly confined to the east of the center. The
low is expected to move northeastward or north-northeastward near
or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks later today and
then along the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone will likely form later today or
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across
portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and
southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also
possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks today, and along
the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and
Saturday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Jul 8 22:39]
- St.Croix [Jul 8 19:19]
- St.Thomas [Jul 7 20:15]
- Bonaire [Jul 7 13:23]
- Grenada [Jul 7 9:05]
- Antigua [Jul 1 6:09]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 30 13:56]
- Dominican Republic [Jun 26 12:52]
- Dominica [Jun 24 8:30]
- Jamaica [Jun 23 20:42]
- Anguilla [Jun 22 19:19]
- Barbados [Jun 22 14:54]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jun 22 10:19]
- St.Lucia [Jun 12 12:00]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x