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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (12:30 UTC, 18 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Saturday, June 1, 2019 09:08AM EDT - New season starts with #2

Good morning,

And, so it begins. The official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While today is considered the official start, we have already had our first named storm, sub tropical storm Andrea which was close to Bermuda on May 20th.ÂPicked up by a cold front, Andrea was only a threat to shipping and fishing, and rode off into history soon after.

Right on cue, June 1st, we now have a second opportunity for a named storm which for now is labeled Invest 91L. This system is now located over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and is expected to shortly enter the very warm Bay of Campeche where the NHC gives it, as of now, a 50% chance of development. The next storm name would be Barry but a short lived one at that if 91L intensifies into a TS. With only a few days to form, it likely will just make TD status but stranger things have happened, especially over the last few years.

Major effectsÂfor Mexico will be blustery winds, torrential rain, flooding and mudslides. There will also be potentially heavy rainÂaffecting Texas and the flood ravaged central Midwest with Oklahoma, Missouri, etc. as this moistureÂis drawn up from Mexico next week, further exacerbating an already devastating situation.

Looking elsewhere it appears pretty tranquil with heavy rains affecting areas of the NE Caribbean which are in severe drought. The MDR (Main Development Region) is quiet with a fewÂlow latitude tropical waves meandering across the Atlantic. This area already is showing warmer SST's whish is fuel for tropical storms but increased wind shear, courtesy of El Nino, is expected to counteract this rise. However, we have seen recently several storms survive and intensify in the face of moderate wind shear. So that by itself is not necessarily comforting. Saharan Dust levels are moderate as well which has been one of our protectors, especially into August.

This seasonÂhas many different predictions and it hard to read with the prime suspect, El Nino,Âlawyering up, not giving any answers as to whether it will continue a strong presence
inhibiting storm formation all through the season or will it fade in August/September, thus ushering in an open door policy for storm formation with major implications.

As usual, time will tell but that time moves fast so please start thinking about updating your hurricane evacuation plans and supplies. For those of us who went through Irma and Maria, you know not to downplay the possibilities.

DaveÂ
The list of names for 2019 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea         AN-dree-uh       Lorenzo         loh-REN-zoh
Barry          BAIR-ree         Melissa         meh-LIH-suh
Chantal        shahn-TAHL       Nestor          NES-tor
Dorian         DOR-ee-an        Olga            OAL-guh
Erin           AIR-rin          Pablo           PAHB-lo
Fernand        fair-NAHN        Rebekah         reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle      ga-bree-ELL      Sebastien       suh-BASH-chuhn
Humberto       oom-BAIR-toh     Tanya           TAHN-yuh
Imelda         ee-MEHL-dah      Van             van
Jerry          JEHR-ee          Wendy           WEN-dee
Karen          KAIR-ren

Wednesday, May 29, 2019 09:16AM PDT - NOAA predicts near normal hurricane season
Not that it really means much, since one hurricane can spoil your whole season, it is still interesting to look at the different long-term forecasts. NOAA just came out with their's and they predict that there is a 40% chance of a near-normal season, 30% chance of above-normal and 30% below normal... They expect 9-15 named storms (12 is average), 4-8 hurricanes (6 is average), of which 2-4 could become major hurricanes (3 is average), the ones we fear most.

They do note that even though an El Nino is going on which normally suppresses hurricane activity, the above normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean plus an enhanced west African monsoon kind of cancels out the 'negative' impact of the El Nino.

With the better satellites up in space hurricane forecast models should become better. NOAA's GFS weather model has gotten a major upgrade as well. Models have been getting very good at predicting the path of the storm. Intensity is another story. We have seen many times in the last couple of years that seemingly tame hurricanes all of a sudden became Cat-5 monsters. Last but not least, NOAA's National Hurricane Center and weather office in San Juan will this year also issue coastal storm surge watches for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. I am actually surprised that they hadn't so far...

So, only a few days left for the official start, we already had one storm, now is a good time to start your preparations.... You know what to do, you have been through it before! Just don't wait for the last moment. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Jun 27 6:57]
- St.Croix [Jun 26 20:14]
- Nevis [Jun 26 15:16]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 25 16:45]
- St.Lucia [Jun 23 11:47]
- Anguilla [Jun 22 6:25]
- Dominica [Jun 20 7:42]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 18 19:39]
- Grenada [Jun 17 7:33]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jun 14 17:37]
- Antigua [Jun 1 8:17]
- Haiti [May 22 11:06]
- Dominican Republic [Apr 28 18:09]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert