Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Kirk, Hurricane Leslie
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (12:40 UTC, 14 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Thursday, October 3, 2024 09:33AM PDT - Leslie

A new day, a new storm it seems. Tropical Storm Leslie formed in the far eastern Atlantic behind Hurricane Kirk. It is sitting pretty low at just 10N, but although it is currently moving west, Leslie is expected to follow Kirk and veer north well before reaching the islands. It might still become a Category 2 hurricane or more. Kirk meanwhile has become a major hurricane, and might even reach Category 4 status. Maybe the islands will get some swell from this storm. But nothing major, I like storms like this. Two more down. There might be something developing in the bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico, but that will not affect us. Stay safe! -Gert

Monday, September 30, 2024 06:27AM EDT - Home grown

Good morning,

First prayers and condolences for all who were in the path of Hurricane Helene. I think when all is said and tallied, she will rival Katrina for the amount of destruction she caused not only to whole towns and villages but also the infrastructure. I see her retirement from the hurricane name list as well.

TS Isaac has no worries on retirement this year as he continues to roll around the open Atlantic and should be relegated today or tomorrow morning to a depression then back to his beginnings as an open trough.TD Joyce also should go poof today and is no threat to any land as she heads NNE to the colder Atlantic.

TD 12 looks to become our next hurricane and a major at that by Friday. Soon to be Hurricane Kirk, now traveling mainly west, is expected to take a turn to the WNW in a couple days and keep trucking that way which is great news for the islands and the Caribbean. A couple troughs coming off the east coast should keep him away from the mainland but too early to tell with certainty at this point. Should keep an eye on him though in case he doesn't gain latitude.

The wave that is just behind TD 12 is more of a low rider which will definitely bear watching this week after TD 12 pulls away. The other area to watch is the same area where Hurricane Helene was spawned in the NW Caribbean and GOMEX. She didn't spend much time lingering around and as such, not much upwelling occurred so this one will have plenty of bath water to work with too. This is where some of the home grown ones start their antics come October and November, sometimes with little notice unlike a Cabo Verde system.

So, just as we get rid of 3 we are probably gonna have 2-3 to follow shortly. Let them all stay out to sea please. Better updates to follow as the forecast and the storms themselves progress.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave.

Saturday, September 28, 2024 10:31AM PDT - Three storms!

I am back! In spite of the ominous season forecast, not much has happened in my 3+ week of absence! And although there are 3 active storms right now, we in the Caribbean are still doing fine! Thanks to Dave for holding the fort while I was away.

Helene is of course the big story. Another storm that rapidly intensified to a Category 4 storm due to the above average seawater temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. Added to the devastation was the big storm surge that due to the topography of the Big Bend region of Florida where it made landfall. The curvature of the coastline made it so that the water could basically only go onshore and not escape easily by spreading out along the coast. For more discussions on Helene see Yale's Eye on the Storm blog (Jeff Masters/Bob Henson), Brian McNoldy's blog or Michael Lowry's blog.

The second active storm is Isaac and the only hurricane. It is in the north central Atlantic and moving away (east) of us. It should keep a safe distance from the Azores as well. Joyce is about 1100 miles east of us, and is luckily for us curving north well before it reaches the islands. Joyce is struggling with a lot of vertical wind shear right now and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 2.5 days.

A tropical wave that came of the African coast and is now near the Cape Verde islands is the next system for us to watch. Looking at the ECMWF model forecast it looks like this low might become something by next Friday/Saturday, but will veer north well before it reaches the islands. The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next 7 days.

There is also an area of interest in the Western Caribbean Sea. It is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico so should not bother us. Formation chances in the next 7 days are only 40%.

That's it! It seems like a lot going on, but for us, not much too worry about. Let's keep it this way. However, I fear that with these above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that we might get an active tail of the season... Although the 'historical peak' of the season is past us, it is not over yet! -Gert

Thursday, September 26, 2024 08:34AM EDT - Helene

Good morning,

While not a part of the Caribbean, Helene was spawned in the Caribbean courtesy of the CAG (Central American Gyre). This post will be short but not sweet. Helene will be a devastating entity, not just along the coast but well inland. Basically affecting the entire states of Florida and Georgia reaching into the southern Appalachians

The cone you see on TV is just a direct path based on the model projections. Outside this cone, is the real story. Helene is huge. She has about 16 hours before landfall to become a Cat 3, maybe a Cat 4 if rapid intensification continues. Storm surge will be the killer upon landfall. The winds, flooding rainfall, and probable tornadoes will be far reaching upon impact and for hundreds of miles inland. Power outages will be massive. So will the landscape damage inland.

Dry air intrusion from the west has limited Helene's ability, at this moment anyway, to fully realize her potential. However, she has reached the Cat 2 threshold of 100 mph sustained winds per hurricane hunters recon. Storm surge, upon landfall is expected to be 10-20 ft which translates to 1-2 stories building wise.

Bottom line, I see Helene will be farther east landfalling based on satellite and radar imagery which will bring more catastrophic effects to Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando and even the east coast through Georgia. But weather, being the inexact science it is, makes up it's own mind and could just follow the cone or even go a bit west late.

Finish preparations, be aware constantly, and evacuate if necessary. Long range models show something similar the first week of October as well. Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave.

Saturday, September 21, 2024 09:55AM EDT - Uncertainty with certainty

Good morning,

The subject is a come see, come sah moment. We have several areas of interest in the Atlantic and the NW Caribbean with the Atlantic being the come sah moment and the NW Caribbean, the come see moment.

First, the Atlantic. Invest 96L, located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, will possibly become a TD at some point as it travels slowly towards the NW then N, eventually being picked up and carried into Portugal and Spain as a strong extra tropical system. Chances are slim though and a fish storm for the time being.

The remnants of TS Gordon retain the possibility of regeneration while moving at a paltry speed mainly NW over 1,000 miles to the SW of the Azores in the mid Atlantic. Again, chances are slim though while also retaining his designation as a fish storm, with no threat to land masses.

A low rider tropical wave will be something to watch in the coming days as it exits the African coast. Lingering Saharan Dust lurks to its north so as it climbs slowly to the WNW, development, while probable, will be slow.

Now, the come see moment. The NW Caribbean in the area of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula is experiencing a CAG event (Central American Gyre), basically a large area of broad low pressure usually found in early season and then Oct and Nov. This event creates a large rain and breezy event along the Central American coast. It also spawns and spins off potential tropical systems as well. The NHC is anticipating a spin off this coming week into the Gulf of Mexico where land interaction is inevitable as the only escape route would be through the Straits of Florida, probability, if a system formed, is less than 1%.

Current major models are in disagreement on timing but fairly in agreement on land impact, again as of this moment. What development and status it reaches is anyone's guess not to mention, where it will impact the gulf coast. Wind shear is negligible while SST's (sea surface temperatures) are extremely conducive in the Gulf. A dipping, steering jet stream combined with high pressure drifting eastward looks to pull whatever develops N then NE with an early looking landfall in the current year's storm magnet, the Big Bend of Florida. The weaker the storm development, the possible land interaction will be farther west. The stronger and quicker development, the farther east it will be pulled.

All along the gulf coast from Texas to Florida should be paying attention to this potential September storm, probably named Helene unless one of the Atlantic systems get their act together quicker. "I" storms are the most retired names in hurricane history. The next "I" is Isaac. We do not need another "I" retirement. The NHC has been focused on this possibility in the Gulf for several days now so it is not something to dismiss. Tampa, your shield might need to be raised if a more easterly than NE track manifests itself. Just saying.

Stay safe, prepared and not scared.

Dave.

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