![[IMG: Luis; Credit: Norm Nelson, Bermuda Biological Station for Research - http://www.bbsr.edu/Weather/]](luis5.gif)
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The Hurricane Pagethe 1996 season |
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Don't forget to look at the local reports and weather discussions from the Leeward islands' point of view.
Frank Lepore, National Hurricane Center, (305)229-4404, flepore@nhc.noaa.gov Stephanie Kenitzer, National Weather Service, (301)713-0622
A near record number of major hurricanes punctuated an active season of Atlantic tropical cyclones this year. Thirteen named storms produced nine hurricanes, six of them with wind speeds exceeding 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center, part of the Commerce Department's National Weather Service.
"Thirteen named storms in 1996 ties four other years -- most recently 1984 -- as the ninth most active Atlantic season since records began in 1886. This puts 1996 easily within the top ten percent of our 110-year record," said Bob Burpee, director of the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical storm is named when its (one minute sustained surface) wind speed reaches 39 mph. It is classified as a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph. A hurricane is considered major when its winds top 110 mph, equivalent to Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, a one-to-five scale that measures hurricane intensity.
"In our collective staff memory, this is the first year that every tropical depression turned into a named storm," Burpee said. An average season in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico has nine named storms, six of them reaching hurricane strength, with two of major strength.
The 1996 hurricane season was much more active than the long term average of six hurricanes, two of which are major. The season's nine hurricanes tie 1955 and 1980 as the eighth most active on record. The season's six major hurricanes comprise the highest number in any one year since 1961 (with eight).
For comparison, 1995 was the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record (after 1933's 21) with 19 named storms, of which 11 were hurricanes, five categorized as major.
This year's 13 tropical storms are significant when coupled with the 19 named storms in 1995's active season, Burpee said. The combined total of 32 tropical storms is the largest number in two consecutive years since the National Hurricane Center was organized in 1935.
Burpee observed that while two years does not constitute a trend, it is noteworthy to have two very active years (1995-96) coming after four very inactive ones.
"Imbedded in these storm numbers are hard realities: 1996's tropical cyclones were responsible for the deaths of at least 135 people throughout the Caribbean, Central America and United States and more than $3.5 billion in damage in the United States only," said Burpee. "Preparation and vigilance are required in any year."
Highlights of the 1996 season:
All of the tropical cyclones originated from tropical waves that moved westward from Africa into the Atlantic basin.
Tropical Storm Arthur (6/17-23), Hurricanes Bertha, Edouard, and Fran and Tropical Storm Josephine affected the U.S. mainland.
Hurricane Bertha (7/5-14) reached hurricane status farther east than any other hurricane on record that early in the season. It became a Category 3 hurricane July 9. Bertha pounded the U.S. Virgin Islands, devastated by Hurricane Marilyn only ten months before. This is the earliest Category 3 hurricane since Alma in June 1966.
Cesar, Dolly, Kyle, Lili and Marco formed in the Caribbean Sea and four of them reached hurricane status in this basin. This is the largest number of hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea since 1969 (with three hurricanes).
Hurricane Cesar (7/25-28) crossed Central America and became "Douglas" in the eastern Pacific, the strongest major hurricane in that basin during 1996. Cesar and Dolly (8/19-23) killed at least 65 people in Central America and Mexico.
Edouard (8/22-9/3) was the strongest hurricane of the season with sustained winds of 145 mph.
Hurricane Fran (8/24-9/6) hit the North Carolina coast, causing at least 34 deaths -- mostly by flash flooding and high winds in the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Fran's property damage estimates top $3.2 billion.
Hurricane Hortense (9/4-16) pummeled Puerto Rico and affected the U.S. Virgin Islands. Torrential rains devastated portions of Puerto Rico, triggering mud slides, which killed 18 people and caused more than $127 million in crop damage.
Hurricane Lili (10/16-18) was the first October hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 1968, and the island's first since Hurricane Kate in November 1985. Lili pounded parts of the island for nearly 12 hours. Its peak winds reached 115 mph.
Hurricane Marco (11/18-11/26) briefly achieved hurricane status only to drift aimlessly (for eight days) through the western Caribbean. Marco never hit land.
The National Hurricane Center is currently reevaluating its observations of another November disturbance, northeast of Bermuda, to determine if it achieved tropical storm status. If reclassified, it would raise the season's total to 14 tropical storms.
The 183-day Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
ZCZC MIATWSAT
TTAA00 KNHC 292054
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 29 1996
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...SUMMARY OF THE 1996 HURRICANE SEASON...
IT WAS A BUSY YEAR FOR HURRICANES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FOLLOWING
THE NEAR-RECORD BREAKING 1995 SEASON...THE 1996 HURRICANE SEASON
FEATURED ABOVE NORMAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND A MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
NUMBER OF INTENSE HURRICANES.
THERE WERE 13 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH NINE BECAME HURRICANES. SIX
OF THE HURRICANES REACHED CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER INTENSITY ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME
RECORD NUMBER OF MAJOR HURRICANES IN A SEASON...EIGHT. THE TOTAL OF
20 HURRICANES IN TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS...1995 AND 1996...IS THE
HIGHEST EVER RECORDED.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WAS VERY ACTIVE WITH FOUR HURRICANES THIS SEASON
...THE MOST SINCE 1933. NORTH CAROLINA WAS ALSO ACTIVE WITH
TWO HURRICANES...BERTHA AND FRAN ...MAKING LANDFALL ALONG ITS SOUTH
COAST.
1996 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS:
NAME DATES WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE
___________________ ____________ ______ __ ____________
T.S ARTHUR JUN 17-21 45 MPH
HURRICANE BERTHA JUL 5-14 115 MPH 12 $270 MILLION
HURRICANE CESAR JUL 24-28 85 MPH 51
HURRICANE DOLLY AUG 19-25 80 MPH 14
HURRICANE EDOUARD AUG 21-SEP 3 145 MPH 2
HURRICANE FRAN AUG 23-SEP 8 120 MPH 34 $3.2 BILLION
T.S. GUSTAV AUG 26-SEP 2 45 MPH
HURRICANE HORTENSE SEP 3-16 140 MPH 26 $0.5 BILLION
HURRICANE ISIDORE SEP 24-OCT 1 115 MPH
T.S. JOSEPHINE OCT 4-8 70 MPH $130 MILLION
T.S. KYLE OCT 11-12 50 MPH
HURRICANE LILI OCT 14-27 115 MPH 8
HURRICANE MARCO NOV 16-26 75 MPH 8
ARTHUR WAS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM THAT MOVED OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA ON 19-20 JUNE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. THE
WEAKENING STORM HEADED OUT TO SEA AND DISSIPATED SOON THEREAFTER.
BERTHA FORMED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...UNUSUALLY FAR TO
THE EAST FOR SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE HURRICANE MOVED THROUGH
THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 85 MPH. BERTHA THEN BRUSHED THE BAHAMAS...AND
STRUCK THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...NEAR WILMINGTON...WITH 105 MPH
WINDS. WHILE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...MAXIMUM WINDS REACHED 115 MPH.
CESAR DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVED MAINLY
WESTWARD. CESAR PASSED OVER CURACAO AS A TROPICAL STORM. LATER IT
HIT NICARAGUA AS AN 80 MPH HURRICANE AND MAINTAINED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHILE PASSING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DEATH AND DAMAGE. IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE IT WAS
RENAMED DOUGLAS...WHICH BECAME A POWERFUL HURRICANE.
DOLLY WAS BORN OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND MADE LANDFALL ON THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
AFTER WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE YUCATAN...THE WESTWARD-
MOVING DOLLY REGENERATED INTO A 80 MPH HURRICANE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND MADE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF
TAMPICO.
EDOUARD WAS THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. IT ORIGINATED
NEAR CAPE VERDE ON THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. FAR OUT IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ITS WINDS REACHED 145 MPH AND WERE 115 MPH
OR HIGHER FOR ONE WEEK. THEN WEAKENING...EDOUARD BRUSHED
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS.
FRAN WAS THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. IT DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FOLLOWED A LONG TRACK OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...LIKE EDOUARD. UNFORTUNATELY...UNLIKE EDOUARD...
FRAN DID NOT VEER AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT MADE LANDFALL
ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH 115 MPH WINDS...RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THAT AREA AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. IT ALSO PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE RAINFALL FLOODING FROM THE CAROLINAS TO PENNSYLVANIA. THE
DEATH TOTAL OF 34 WILL LIKELY BE REVISED DOWNWARD.
GUSTAV DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND REMAINED WEAK AND
FAR OUT AT SEA.
HORTENSE FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND CROSSED THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO WITH 80 MPH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS CAUSING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IT THEN SPREAD HURRICANE
CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE TURK AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. IT TURNED NORTHWARD WELL TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST...WHILE BECOMING THE SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE OF THE
YEAR WITH 140 MPH WINDS. HORTENSE ALSO CROSSED NOVA SCOTIA AS A
WEAKENING HURRICANE.
ISIDORE WAS THE LAST HURRICANE TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IN 1996. IT TURNED HARMLESSLY NORTHWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT BRIEFLY REACHED CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY
BEFORE EXITING THE DEEP TROPICS.
JOSEPHINE FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IT MADE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM ACCOMPANIED BY COASTAL FLOODING. JOSEPHINE QUICKLY BECAME
EXTRATROPICAL AFTER CROSSING THE COAST AND IT THEN RACED ALONG THE
U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND OUT TO
SEA.
KYLE WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT FORMED OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. IT WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND MOVED
INLAND NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHOUT MAKING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
LILI WAS THE SIXTH AND LAST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. IT
FORMED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN MID-OCTOBER AND MOVED OVER THE
ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE MAIN ISLAND OF CUBA ON THE 17TH-18TH WITH 90
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS. AT LEAST ONE LOCATION IN CUBA REPORTED OVER 20
INCHES OF RAIN. THE HURRICANE EXITED THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF
CUBA AND HEADED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE MOVED OVER GREAT EXUMA...LONG ISLAND...AND SAN
SALVADOR. MAXIMUM WINDS REACHED 115 MPH JUST AFTER LILI MOVED
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. LILI LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON THE 27TH..AND THEN IT MOVED OVER THE BRITISH
ISLES AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
MARCO FORMED FROM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT PERSISTED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN MID-NOVEMBER. THE
CYCLONE MEANDERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR MORE THAN A
WEEK. IT STRENGTHENED BRIEFLY INTO A HURRICANE ON 20 NOVEMBER...AND
WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION 3 DAYS LATER. MARCO REGENERATED BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING EAST OF YUCATAN ON THE
26TH. ALTHOUGH MARCO THREATENED SEVERAL ISLANDS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...IT DID NOT SERIOUSLY IMPACT ANY LAND AREAS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS RE-EVALUATING THE DATA FROM A
WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES ON NOVEMBER 19TH - 21ST. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE
BEEN AN UN-NAMED TROPICAL STORM AND THIS WOULD RAISE THE SEASON
TOTAL TO 14 NAMED TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES.
AVILA/LAWRENCE/MAYFIELD/PASCH/RAPPAPORT
Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University forecasted 11 tropical storms, of which 7 will evolve into a hurricane. Three of those hurricanes will turn into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).
So far this year we had:
Name Max. Winds Classification
-------------------------------------------------
Arthur 40 mph Tropical Storm
Bertha 115 mhh Cat. 3 - Hurricane
Cesar 80 mph Cat. 1 - Hurricane
Dolly 80 mph Cat. 1 - Hurricane
Edouard 140 mph Cat. 4 - Hurricane
Fran 115 mph Cat. 3 - Hurricane
Gustav 45 mph Tropical Storm
Hortense 140 mph Cat. 4 - Hurricane
Isidore 115 mph Cat. 3 - Hurricane
Josephine 70 mph Tropical Storm
Kyle 50 mph Tropical Storm
Lili 115 mph Cat. 3 - Hurricane
Marco 75 mph Cat. 1 - Hurricane
So we have had 13 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. As it looks right now Dr. Gray underestimated this year's tropical activity, especially the number of major hurricanes.
Lili is the sixth major hurricane, this could be a new all-time record!
Last year's count was: 19 tropical storms, of which 11 developed into a hurricane. Five of those hurricanes were major hurricanes.
Nov 26, 1996 4:40pm EST
As was forecasted, satellite pictures show that Marco is dissipating while merging with the cold front! So this was 1996 Hurricane Season. It has been a pleasure serving you. Thanks for the fan e-mail we have received over the months. These pages have become a lot more popular than we ever anticipated. Since we started this back in July, when Bertha hit St.Maarten and surrounding islands, we have had over 30,000 visitors! September 5, when Hurricane Fran was threatening the US was a very special day, a total of 3,100 people accessed this page alone!
We have to thank the forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and especially Dr. Ed Rappaport. They were the ones who did the real work! Their forecasts are invaluable in preparing the islands for tropical systems. Also, thanks to the people at GoBeach Vacations who graciously offered to host these pages. Their job is to find the best accommodation for you on the islands, and although they don't really want to advertise hurricanes, they think their clients should be kept informed about threatening tropical systems!
Nov 26, 1996 10:40am EST
This time it is for real: Marco is almost gone! Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph, and thus Marco has been downgraded to a tropical depression again. The 'center' is located about 140 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Antonio on the Western tip of Cuba. Over the past six hours Marco has hardly moved. It is expected that Marco will dissapate later today. And hopefully this was the last tropcical system for the 1996 Hurricane Season, since it is supposed to end November 30.
Nov 25, 1996 10:50am EST
And Marco is a tropical storm again! Not really anticipated. Ship reports show maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, and a relative high minimum central pressure of 1003 mbar. The center is located about 190 miles south of the Isle of Youth (Cuba). Cuba has issued tropical storm warnings for the Isle of Youth and the Pinar Del Rio province (Western Cuba).
The system is moving toward the NorthWest near 14 mph. A cold front is approaching, which will affect both Marco's track and intensity. It is forecasted that Marco will be absorbed in the frontal system in 48 hours.
Nov 24, 1996 11:00am EST
Tropical depression Marco is still alive. Winds are still near 35mph. Marco is moving a little faster than before, towards the west, near 10mph. The center is located about 175 miles south south-west of Kingston, Jamaica.
Earlier today, upper level wind relaxed somewhat, and it looked like Marco seemed to develop some deep convection again. Right now the coldest cloud tops are starting to warm up again, so hopefully is was a temporarily flare up. Marco is a small system, and it remains possible that it will redevelop again in a tropical storm.
However, its forecasted track takes it to the west, south of Jamaica. The island will probably be spared the torrential rains which were earlier accompanying this system. So still looking good for Jamaica.
Nov 23, 1996 12:10pm EST
The end of Marco? Satellite images show that Marco has lost most of the thunderstorm activity overnight, and is no more than a tight swirl of low clouds with no deep convection. The system has been downgraded to a tropical depression with max. sustained winds of 35mph. Dissapation is possible in 72 hours or sooner! Good news for Jamaica!
Nov 22, 1996 16:10pm EST
Marco has weakened and became sheared quite a bit due to the upper level short wave (see below). Restrengthening is unsure at the moment. Maximum winds are now around 50 mph, and it is moving (albeit slowly) toward the North East. The NHC forecasts that Marco will stay nearly stationary for the next 36 hours, with a slow westward motion thereafter. However the different models don't agree very well. A little weakening is expected, and tropical storm watches for Jamaica may be dropped tonight.
Heavy rains are spreading over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Jamaica will probably be Marco's next victim.
Nov 22, 1996 10:50am EST
And still, Marco refuses to move. It is still sitting about 160 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Some strengthening has occured since maximum sustained winds are now 65 mph. The current forecasted track shows that Marco will move about 70 miles south of Jamaica towards the west-northwest, however, since Marco is hardly moving this may not be very accurate. At the moment there is an upper level short wave moving through Marco, which is expected to weaken the system. After the wave passes further strengthening is possible. In any case, with this system, as many others as we've seen this year, it is very difficult to predict what it will do.
The main concern with Marco are still the torrential rains. Also since Jamaica has already had a lot of rains over the last weeks, so the soil is still saturated. There is still a tropical storm watch in effect for Jamaica, emergency agencies remain on high alert. Many schools are still closed on the island, awaiting what Marco will do.
Nov 21, 1996 4:25pm EST
The latest advisories don't report much changes. Marco is still hardly moving, but keeping it's strength. The 3-day forecast still puts the center of the storm in 72 hours south-east of Jamaica. It's northerly track is forecasted to be more westward than eastward, but it's hard to tell. Hopefully it won't hang above Jamaica too long.
Nov 21, 1996 11:10am EST
Marco has further weakened to 45mph. Tropical storm watches for Cuba and Haiti have been discontinued and the tropical storm warning for Jamaica has been replaced by a watch.
The system is currently hardly moving at all and just sits there about 180 miles of Kingston, Jamaica. Marco is forecasted to remain its tropical storm status, not much further weakening is forecasted over the next 2 days. Where it is heading seems very difficult to tell. The current forecasted track is a little west from the previous ones, but I wouldn't rely on them to much, since right now Marco is not moving at all. It is not a strong system, tropical storm winds extend to only 80 miles from the center. The biggest concern with Marco are the accompanying torrential rains of up to 15 inches. Full advisories can be found below.
Nov 20, 1996 5:50pm EST
Some good news! The latest advisory shows that Marco has weakened instead of further strenghtened. Marco has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. The bad news is that forecasts show that the system will keep hanging over Jamaica between 48 and 72 hours, due to a blocking ridge which is expected to develop over the Bahamas. Though further weakening is expected, it will become very wet on Jamaica, as it looks right now. Full NHC Advisories below.
Finally, an interesting paragraph copied from the NHC Discussion:
IT IS UNUSUAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS MARCO
DID EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH SUCH AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. MARCO IS THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AND THE
FIFTH TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN THIS YEAR.
Nov 20, 1996 11:40am EST
Marco has become a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. So far it is not a very strong system, but it is accompanied by a lot of rains which can cause flash floods, mudslides etc. Some further strengthening is expected, but it is believed to stay a Category 1 Hurricane. The center of the system is located around 220 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica.
Forecast models predict that the center will pass just East of Jamaica, and will touch the Eastern tip of Jamaica, along the Windward Passage (straight between Haiti and Cuba). As it looks right now it will pass Northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, but it seems to be heading straight for the Bahamas. The 72 hours (3 day) forecast shows the center just North of Mayaguana Island in the Bahamas.
However, Marco is a slow mover, and therefore these forecasts have to be used with a lot of caution. The atmospheric conditions to the North are important for it's future track. Some models predict a shortwave ridge to the North of Marco, this may cause Marco to stay longer in the Caribbean (and thus take a more easterly track). Advisories from the National Hurricane Center can be found below
Nov 19, 1996 2:40pm EST
It looks like that Marco is faster strengthening than previously anticipated. The 1pm advisory reports winds up to 50mph. People in or traveling to the western and central Caribbean (mainly Jamaica, Cuba and Hispanola) should keep a close eye on this tropical system. Advisories can be found below
Nov 19, 1996 11:45am EST
TD #13 has become better organized overnight. Therefore the National Hurricane Center has upgraded TD#13 to Tropical Storm Marco in their 10AM EST Advisories. It is drifting eastward, maximum sustained winds are 40mph. Slow intensification is expected, though conditions are not really favorable. The government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch. Again, we will not closely follow this storm, for advisories look below.
Nov 18, 1996 10:35pm EST
From the 4pm NWS weather advisories: "Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the thirteenth tropical depression of the season has developed off the northeast coast of Nicaragua."
It is now located about 140 miles East of Cabo Gracias a Dios Nicaragua and about 375 miles Southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds are 35mph. Its movement is nearly stationary. Some slow strenghtening is possible over the next couple of days, but the strong westerlies to the north should inhibit significant development.
Since this system is not threatening the Leeward Islands we will not follow the development with a close eye. Advisories for this storm can be found below (The University of N. Carolina-Charlotte has not updated their pages yet).
Sources National Hurricane Center Advisories
Location Public Adv. Discussion Marine Adv. Strik Prob.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U. of N. Carolina-Charlotte xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
Ohio State University xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
National Hurricane Center xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources National Hurricane Center Advisories
Location Public Adv. Discussion Marine Adv. Strik Prob.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U. of N. Carolina-Charlotte xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
Ohio State University xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
National Hurricane Center xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A peak out of the window of the Bermuda Biological Station for Research
Local Bermuda Weather Forecast
Oct 20, 1996 5:30pm EDT, reporting from Bermuda
Everything still pretty quiet. Only on the Eastern and Southern Coast you feel the wind and the waves are pounding on-shore. It is still dry, not much rain at all today, the sun is even almost out! Forty mph winds have been reported, seas are pretty rough, but no damage on the island or anything.
Oct 20, 1996 14:45pm EDT, reporting from Bermuda
Just got back from a walk along the eastern end of the island, St. Catherine's beach. Waves are pounding on the shore line, some waves crashing over the road. Wind is pretty strong, and gusty, maybe around 20-30 kts. Back in St.George's (the far eastern town on Bermuda) everything is very quiet, just a little bit of wind and it stopped raining. Right now it looks like some more is coming, it looks pretty dark towards the East, but maybe it stays offshore. So sofar you hardly notice that there is a hurricane about 145 miles from us. The forecast was the Lili's closest point of approach would be at around 1 PM Bermuda time (noon EDT), so we should be allright.
Oct 20, 1996 12:15pm EDT, reporting from Bermuda
Lili has further weakened to 90 mph winds. The center is now located 155 miles south of Bermuda. Although hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles, and tropical storm winds up to 230 miles, the weather is still quite good on Bermuda. This is because we are located on the weak side of the hurricane.
According to the marine advisory tropical storm winds (34kts) extend up to around 90 miles from the center Northward. Still without reach. There is a little bit more wind than this morning, it is raining somewhat, heavy overcast, but nothing exciting. In fact it is quite calm weather.
Oct 20, 1996 8:25am EDT, reporting from Bermuda
Lili has somewhat weakened, max. sustained winds are near 100 mph. At 5 am the center of the storm was located 245 miles south-south west of Bermuda. It's closest point of approach will be around 145 miles, closer than it looked yesterday. However, no watches have been posted yet, since the island is located on the weaker side.
The marine advisory shows that in 12 hours:
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT
64 KT... 50NE 100SE 50SW 0NW
50 KT...125NE 150SE 100SW 40NW
34 KT...150NE 175SE 150SW 60NW
We will be to the Nort West of the center (last column). A 145 miles is 119 nautical miles, the units used above. So it looks like we don't even get tropical storm force winds (34kt).
Looking out of the window: it's overcast, some drops of rain falling out of the sky, hardly any wind. So still looking good!
Oct 19, 1996 7:30pm EDT
Latest forecasts show that the strong Category 3 Hurricane Lili will pass about 200 nm (230 miles) southeast of Bermuda. However since Bermuda (32:22:01N 64:40:59W) is on the weaker side of the storm no watches have been posted (yet). I am currently reporting from Bermuda (just had to pull back into the harbor, seas were about 10 ft, plus swell), so will be able to give you first hand information! As it looks right now, people are not really preparing for the storm, once they see that the seas are coming up they will get worried and take the necessary precautions.
Yesterday's weather was sunny skies, today it was heavily overcast and rainshowers, the first outer bands of Lili. New updates will be posted tomorrow at regular intervals.
Oct 7, 1996 10:00am EDT
The tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico is upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine. It may become a hurricane later today.
Oct 4, 1996 6:00pm EDT
At 5PM TD #10 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Since it is in the Gulf, it does not pose a threat to the leeward islands. Therefore, we will not discuss it here. Better sources are listed in our Websites section. NHC Advisories can be found below:
Sources National Hurricane Center Advisories
Location Public Adv. Discussion Marine Adv. Strik Prob.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U. of N. Carolina-Charlotte xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
Ohio State University xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
National Hurricane Center xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Disclaimer
Contents of these page are not to be taken as official forecasts. There are just my own thoughts about the subject, and I'm not a weatherman nor psychic. Tropical systems tend to be even more unpredictable than human beings. Accuracy of eye-witness reports could not be checked either. Just the fact that I personally know most of the persons quoted does not mean that they tell me the truth and nothing but the truth. The information on this page should be used at your own risk. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert