Caribbean Hurricane Network - Updates from the Islands - 2004 Season
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And what a season this was..., esp. for the Bahamas, Cayman and Grenada... Storm names are picked from a list that is repeated evey 6 years. When a storm has been particularly brutal, its name is usually retired, so that we never have another one like that again. This year 4 storm names were retired! Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne will be replaced with Colin, Fiona, Igor and Julia. More info about hurricane names on the NHC-website.

2004 Season: | Alex | Bonnie | Charley | Danielle | Earl | Frances | Gaston | Hermine | Ivan | Jeanne | Karl | Lisa | Matthew | Nicole | Otto

Thursday, November 14, 2024 20:06PM EST - Sara's dangerous possibilities

Good evening,

Newly upgraded TS Sara, a minimal tropical storm at the moment at 40 mph sustained with higher gusts, is approx. 70 miles NW of the Honduran/ Nicaraguan border traveling almost due west at a pedestrian 10 mph. Forecast to slow down even further upon closer approach to Central America, Sara's effects will increase dramatically in the form of flash flooding, mudslides, coastal erosion and some wind damage. TS force winds, from hurricane hunter data, show most of the TS force winds stretch mainly to the north of the COC approx.105 miles.

The most damaging effects will likely be on the north coast of mountainous, in that area, Honduras where a meandering TS staying just offshore will drench the coastline, most receiving an anticipated 20+ inches of rainfall. Tropical storm warnings are up for Honduras over to the Nicaraguan border with TS watches closely assimilated on the outskirts of the warning areas. Belize could also receive some of Sara's wrath by or on Sunday while the sprawling nature of Sara, who hasn't consolidated much, will affect parts of El Salvador and Guatemala as well.

The longer she stays offshore the stronger she may become but the NHC is now showing a dissipation after a brief period of intensification before interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula with the remnants emerging into the SW Gulf of Mexico. Then, they show no regeneration. Right now, I am not buying that ending scenario. This has been quite the season ending fury with unlikely scenarios. So vigilance must be applied for the gulf coast until and if, Sara meets her demise.

Regardless of the end game, for Central America, Gert mentioned memories of Hurricane Mitch, striking Honduras and Nicaragua, October 1998, with a confirmed fatality total of 11,374 which was understated probably by many thousands who were never found in the landslides, mudslides and flooding. Hopefully and prayerfully, although history tends to repeat itself, Sara will not be a repeat.

Stay safe and prepared. Still a ways to go. Won't be surprised if a December popup emerges.

Dave

Wednesday, November 6, 2024 12:33PM EST - Late season Rafael

Good morning,

Thank you Gert for covering for me while the flu is covering me and my wife as well.

Hurricane Rafael, a relatively rare storm not only this late in the season but also in intensity took its sweet time percolating to the south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands now putting on quite the show and a dangerous one at that. Having given Jamaica a glancing blow as a TS, then powering into the Caymans as a strengthening hurricane, his eyes are now set on western Cuba and the Isle of Youth, which during various preceding years has been a hurricane magnet itself like Bermuda.

Currently located approx. 120 miles SSE of Havana moving at a moderate 14mph, Rafael is approaching and expected to attain Cat 3 major status before landfall in western Cuba. Hurricane hunters found a double eyewall which is interesting yet a bit scary at 960mb and dropping. At the moment, the only silver lining is this system is not yet completely symmetrical like a buzzsaw and the hurricane force winds stretch out only 15 miles in diameter meaning a small core of the most damaging winds. Storm surge, flash flooding, coastal erosion will occur. The other real damaging threat from Rafael to Cuba is damaging or destroying an already compromised electrical infrastructure which has disrupted Cuba's island wide electrical grid leaving many without power numerous times.

While over Cuba and pulling away headed into the SE Gulf of Mexico, TS force winds are expected to reach the Florida Keys where Key West to the middle keys are under a TS warning since TS winds are stretching out 115 miles at this point, yet not in all quadrants. Once in the Gulf, Rafael has a limited opportunity to restrengthen, possibly back up to Cat 2 status as a threat to oil rigs (not good), the fishes and some shipping. Track wise, at first, Louisiana was in the bullseye but now, expected to turn more to the west then NW. Rapid weakening is expected after the next 48-72 hours which means Rafael may longer be a named system, only a remnant upon landfall, probably around Texas but too soon to tell.

Elsewhere, there's a mess right now to the NE of the northern Antilles which has limited potential down the road as it migrates towards the west. NHC says a 30% chance after 7 days. It will be tough for the next few though as wind shear is above moderate but the sledding might get easier once past north of PR and the VI's on the way to the southern Bahamas and Turks/Caicos. Might be a sneaky system so eyes wide open, not shut as vigilance is still in vogue for the next few weeks.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, November 4, 2024 15:04PM PST - Rafael

Invest 97L is now Tropical Storm Rafael, the 17th of the season. It will reach Jamaica tonight and be near Cayman late Tuesday. Tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica, and a hurricane warning for Cayman. Tropical storm watches have also been issued for western Cuba, western Key West and Dry Tortugas.

Rafael is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, and might strengthen to a Category 2 the next day. When Rafael passes Cayman it is expected to be 'just' a Category 1 storm. However, since conditions are pretty favorable for intensification (above normal sea surface temperature, low wind shear and high moisture), I would not be surprised it the storm will be stronger than forecasted. When Rafael is in the Gulf, it will encounter more adverse conditions, so I don't expect a major (Category 3+) to hit the US.

Rain will be widespread however. Esp. for Hispaniola, with the other system passing to the north, and saturating the grounds, this could be a one-two punch. Jamaica is also expected to get locally up to 9" (220mm) of rain, which can cause flooding and mud slides in the hilly terrain. Stay safe! -Gert

Saturday, November 2, 2024 15:45PM PDT - Rain, rain, rain

A wave is passing through the northern islands as we speak. It is not expected to develop into something, but it will produce a lot of rain over the next couple of days. Esp. the Dominican Republic and Haiti should pay attention, since they usually don't cope too well with a lot of rain.

Elsewhere we have Tropical Storm Patty. It is close to the western Azores, so far from us. It is also moving towards the east, away from us. Patty is aiming for Europe, similar to Kirk a while ago. But by that time it should have weakened to a depression, still a lot of rain though...

Finally, last but for sure not least, in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is the next invest, 97L. The NHC gives it a pretty high chance of developing into something by tomorrow. It might even become a late season hurricane since sea water temperatures are still well above normal. The Hurricane Hunters are going to investigate Sunday. Models have it loop north over Jamaica and then eastward over Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. So people on Jamaica and the Cayman's should definitely pay close attention to this one! See the link for the 'spaghetti plots' above. Stay safe! -Gert

Saturday, October 19, 2024 19:17PM EDT - Surprise Surprise Surprise

Good evening,

Dual surprises have occurred although one was somewhat expected and the other was really not expected. This goes to show, the Earth and climate are not always in sync with computer models and will do what they want regardless of what is predicted. It also goes to show, never trust a CV seeded system no matter what time of hurricane season.

Tiny Hurricane Oscar, who probably will win the Oscar for most surprising late season appearance at the 2024 ceremonies, rose from basically a non entity, fighting dry air all the way across the MDR from Africa, passing by the Northern Lesser Antilles, still as a non entity, then morphing rapidly from a wave to a hurricane in less than 12 hours having finally escaped the clutches of late season Saharan Dust.

Tiny as in really tiny for a hurricane as far as they eye is concerned at the moment, measuring only approx. 5 miles in diameter but packing 85 mph winds in that small core. Hurricane Hunters scrambled this morning to put an initial mission together to investigate Oscars rapid strengthening phase which saw Oscar rise from a tropical depression to hurricane status in just under 3 hours which is the fastest intensification ever recorded.

A direct and now impactful, already occurring threat to the low lying Turks and Caicos, Oscar has the potential to be a devastating storm with storm surge, wind impacts, plus the obvious factor of little warning to those residents for preparations. Normally, you sometimes have days to prepare.. These residents had less than a few hours! The northeastern portion of Cuba, already facing several and continuing nationwide blackouts, have hurricane watches up. Unless Oscar does a right turn Clyde moment when anticipated, Oscar will visit that section of Cuba before eventually turning abruptly N then NE.

Oscar could turn into a major down the road. Virtually none of the models or humans foresaw hurricane formation occurring, not to mention the RI factor. Originally Oscar was forecast to MAYBE make a small name for himself as a possible mid grade TS turning WSW into the Caribbean. Now, a hurricane and, while still with a WSW component, forecast to do an about face the other direction. The southeastern Bahamas are also under a hurricane warning. Bermuda might see some watches with a visit from Oscar later on as well.

TS Nadine also finally formed but plowed into Belize as a 60 mph system before attaining hurricane status. This transformation was reasonably expected, however, she was on the rise quickly as well. Good thing land got in the way. Bad thing is the heavy rains and flooding which will occur while she rapidly dissipates, maybe temporarily, over Central America. Possible she re-emerges into the Pacific and regenerates into a hurricane. Time will tell.

Off to the east, any threat coming off the African coast is being decapitated by wind shear so for now, the MDR is finally quiet.

Stay safe and prepared. November still might be interesting.

Dave.

P.S. I see Gert beat me to the post LOL so if I repeat something he shared, not a bad thing.

November 30, 8:45PM EST - Otto
It's been quite a season, and here is another surprise... On the last official day of the hurricane season we haven another storm! Luckily this one is safely out at sea, not threatening any (is)land. Just one for the books.

Sat, 20 Nov 2004 09:37:53 -0400 - closing of season

October 10, 5:45PM EDT - Nicole
And another one..., subtropical storm Nicole, located about 100 miles west of Bermuda. Gale force winds affecting Bermuda right now... Not a big threat, it won't get much closer to Bermuda then it is now. So luckily not a big deal this one.

October 8, 5:10PM EDT - Matthew
Hurricane season isn't over yet, but it is on its last legs. A new tropical storm developed in the Gulf of Mexico. Since it isn't threatening any of the Caribbean islands it will not be further discussed here.

Fri, 24 Sep 2004 12:35:05 -0300 - Lisa and others!

Good afternoon.   What an active and deadly hurricane season it has been so far. Ivan is finally dying an ignominious death over Texas and portions of Lousianna after being regenerated over the Gulf of Mexico. Good riddance! Then there's Ivan's "loop partner". Hurricane Jeanne, threatening the Bahama's and the Florida coastline once again, possible as a category three if she gets her act together. Tropical Depression Lisa must be depressed a she doesn't seem to know where she is going either: another "looper". And last but not least, Hurricane Karl, the only gentleman of the systems which didn't chase any "skirts". Now, he'll fly by the Azores on his way to wreak havoc in Europe. Finally, the next wave has moved off the African coast currently pounding the Cape Verde Islands. Fortunately, it is already at a high latitude (13 degrees N) so it's highly unlikely to reach the Caribbean and the mainland US even if it does develop which IS likely. There is more of this wave to the south though and a few more waves waiting to exit the coast so please pay attention to these systems. We are still in the "hot zone" for the next few weeks and you never really know what can happen.   Currently, Hurricane Jeanne is the only immediate threat to any Caribbean Islands (Bahama's and TCI's) although Grenada, the Caymans, Jamaica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti are all trying mightily to recover from their run-ins with Ivan and Jeanne. I wish to express my sympathies, prayers and thoughts to all those countries who have been hit by storms this year and yes, even to you Floridians who have been subject to a very abnormal hurricane year and could possibly see Jeanne up close and personal. It must be said that Grenada, Haiti, and Jamaica all need the most urgent help so please send it any way you can by a reliable relief agency so you know it will get there and into the right hands. The listing for agencies are found on the various island postings and several sites Gert has set up. Just because another country has been hit hard doesn't mean you forget the first one. Who needs help the most? That is the question you should ask yourself and act accordingly.   With almost 9 weeks left in the official 2004 hurricane season, it's not likely it will calm down anytime soon. A ray of sunshine in the form of a mild El Nino forming (according to NOAA) could help slow down the season towards the end but don't count on it. Stay alert, stay prepared and stay safe.   By the way, Lisa's first "Air Bear" drop wasn't too successful. Maybe we need to drop it again as it's sure to defrost by the time it hit's the 85 degree ocean water at the bottom!   Dave

September 23, 12:10PM EDT - Short run down of active storms
We have 4 active storms... Ivan has been resurrected in the Gulf (more below. Jeanne did a full circle east of the Bahamas and is now targeting the Bahamas and Florida again... Karl is a category 3 hurricane out in the open Atlantic, no threat to any land... and Lisa looks like it is cloning herself as well, and is expected to turn north well before it will reach the islands.
So the only storm the Caribbean has to worry about is Jeanne. Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the northern Bahamas. Right now it looks like Jeanne will go over Abaco in about 50 hours and Grand Bahama (again) in 60 hours. At that time winds might top 115 mph!

September 21, 12:50PM EDT - Haiti
Seems like the forgotten storm... but this hurricane season's largest devastation is not caused by Ivan in Grenada, Cayman or the US. It is Tropical Storm Jeanne in Haiti and the Dominican Republic! The slow moving tropical storm dumped so much rain on Hispaniola that it caused large scale flooding. Over 600 people have died in Haiti. The death toll in Haiti is so high because of widespread deforestation so that water cannot be absorbed by the forests in the hills. Some pictures are posted in the Haiti Reports section. This is the second time this year that flooding causes large casualties. Back in May more then 2,000 people were killed due to a tropical wave passing over... More news at: yahoo.com/fullcoverage and news.google.com.

Tue, 21 Sep 2004 12:16:48 -0300 - TS Lisa

Good afternoon.   While it has been pretty quiet and dry for a change here in the Caribbean, we must not forget we still have 10 weeks left in the hurricane season.   Karl, fortunately, is headed northwards and that is a very good thing to see. Little Lisa is a fiesty storm which should survive the shear and intensify. Hmmm, kinda reminds me about my youngest sister of the same name! Hey sis, we could use your bear as a dropsonde in the middle of Lisa as she gets closer!! (Inside joke).   Anyway, Lisa's track is not that defined yet nor is her intensity. I really don't like her path at the moment nor do I like the latitude of soon to be TD#13 behind her. It's possible Lisa could get caught up in that system and dissipate but I doubt it while Karl isn't pulling her northward as some suggested either so Lisa's track is still what they call a "low-confidence" forecast. I concur.   Hurricane Jeanne is a strange one as she tries to ride the merry-go-round east of the Bahama's. A very unusual track indeed. I don't remember the name offhand but there was a typhoon in the central Pacific which did a complete loop; I believe it was last year. Let's hope she doesn't loop to far south or too far west!   The remnants of Ivan (This storm will be remembered, not only for it's brutality and damage, but it's refusal to die as well) are crossing the peninsula of Florida and could try to regroup again in the Gulf of Mexico! Pray that it doesn't!! It's wreaked enough havoc already!   With the lull in the local action, we here in the territory are trying to dry out. The islands are a lush green with the beaches finally being cleared for swimming although it will be next week before I explore that theory. Too much run-off and who knows what else is in the water for me to take that chance.   Relief efforts are on-going for Grenada and Jamaica with several entities collecting and sending supplies. Only hope they reach who they are supposed to reach instead of the scum that prey on situations like this such as looters, corrupt Customs agents, etc...   Dave

Sat, 18 Sep 2004 07:52:33 -0300 - Karl and a breather!

Good morning!   Another thunderstorm this morning was my wake-up culprit but at least it wasn't at 3:45 am this time. TS Jeanne made quite an impact on the northern coast of the Dominican Republic but quite possibly has to be the weirdest shaped storm I have ever seen with the small area surrounding the center to the north of the island and a large, convective portion to the south. My current line of thinking is that it might just fall apart as many storms have done interacting with those high DR mountains but onlty time will tell.   Hurricane Karl is out there in the far Eastern Atlantic but will be of no consequence to the Caribbean (thanks for the breather, Mother Nature). There is a long, wide patch of African dust (Saharan), which starts around 58-59 degrees west and is moving west around 17 mph. The start point is also pinpointed by a weak tropical wave which has flared up some overnight but due to dry air and the dust, should not develop!   Some filtered through the clouds sun was observed here in the US Virgin Islands yesterday but I'm not expecting to see significant sunshine until late this afternoon. We've had some serious flooding issues and light wind damage here but nothing on the scale of Puerto Rico and the DR. Roads are covered in many spots with dirt and small rocks. Several homes have been made uninhabitable due to rushing waters and many cars were caught in low-lying areas too. I can't understand why some people continue to park in an area where they know it always floods, like Vitraco Mall in Havensight by Blockbuster. At least there were no vehicles still in Lake Turnbull.   As for my leaks, all but one has stopped and the towels and pans will stay down until late this afternoon! I feel the urge to go to the beach but the waters are very tainted an ugly brown all around the islands due to very heavy run-off. This is bad in several ways: 1.) heavy silt will filter to the ocean floor and lay upon our reefs which can hinder their growth and even kill them; 2.) pesticides, agricultural run-off, and other contaminants such as sewage make the waters unhealthy for humans and animals alike. Much of the dirt and rock run-off is due to construction sites and people's driveways for which they have no containment set-up.   The seas have calmed down dramatically to about 1-3 feet. During the height of the storm when Pillsbury Sound was an angry monster (she's usually rough when there's no storm around!), I saw a speedboat approaching from the direction of the British Virgin Islands. Wondering what kind of suicidal dumb--- would pilot a boat across Pillbury Sound in 8-10 foot seas and 50 mph winds heading towards Sapphire Beach, the thought came to me, what a perfect time to smuggle immigrants or drugs! I can't believe it was someone just trying to "save his boat"!   Dave

September 16, 11:55M EDT - Karl
Tropical Depression Twelve in the far Eastern Atlantic was upgraded to Tropical Storm Karl. It is still about 1900 miles from the islands. Better yet, it is expected to curve to the north well before it reaches the islands. No worries about this one.

Thu, 16 Sep 2004 10:02:19 -0300 - TD#12

Jeanne hasn't even "left the building" yet contributing to over 10 inches of rain and still falling here in the US Virgin Islands. A serious, stubborn, and strong rainband persists with even more heavy rain over Vieques, Culebra, and Eastern Puerto Rico although fortunately, much more has fallen over the open waters to the north and south. Still, we are all looking at up to 15" of rain by tonight and more in isolated areas. The winds have died down finally but that wind gust early this morning was a contender for scariest moment on the east end. Currently, thunderstorms keep intermittently rolling by.   Looking ahead, a new Tropical Depression has formed in the far atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde islands. TD#12 will be officially initialized as of 11 am today and is expected by long term models to pass to the north of 50 degrees west. I'll keep my fingers crossed and eye's wide open as those long term models and mother nature's intentions are not always on the same page.   Meanwhile this leak patroller is taking a much needed nap.   Dave

Thu, 16 Sep 2004 05:24:14 -0300 - Scorpion sting of Jeanne

Good very early morning! Yes, I am awake monitoring our leak problems in this house. But I was sleeping soundly an hour ago when a wind gust lasting at least 30 seconds woke me up with a scare. I estimate this gust to have been around 65 mph as it banged the windows, pushed my 200 lb gas grill the 40 foot length of my deck, and blew out some of the siding up top. This did not happen while Jeanne was passing to the south; it was the tail of the storm, much like a scorpions, that is giving us this lashing! Not to mention the torrential rain accompanying it which, of course, created several new leaks previously undiscovered. Needless to say, my heroic wet-vac has finally died from the stress. I must trek to Home Depot, which opens at 6am (and hopefully not on island-time either!) and purchase a new one. Not very good timing I might add but it could have been worse.   Pockets of the northern islands of St. John, St. Thomas, and Water Island continue to have sporadic power outages but overall, the Water and Power Authority has done a great job throughout the territory. They are much-maligned most of the time but you have to give kudos where kudos are due! Cable has come back on and is staying on but cell phone circuit's continue to be overloaded. Some flooding has occurred, particularly in the Havensight and Frenchtown of St. Thomas. "Lake Turnbull", a low-lying dirt parking lot where the Governor ran for re-election adjacent to Havensight, is St. Thomas's newest water park!   Doppler radar shows St. Croix starting to dry out within the hour while the northern islands have several more, steady rain-filled hours to go. I'll post my next report later on but I must get ready for "The Depot". By the way, even though Ivan is now making landfall on the mainland, we must remember what he did to the Caribbean and be good neighbors to those in need of which there are many. Jeanne has caused me plenty of water-related headaches but mine are trivial to those without homes, running clean water and electric. You know, the basics! So please help if you can!   Dave

Wed, 15 Sep 2004 12:51:54 -0300 - TS Jeanne

Good afternoon!   The eye of almost hurricane strength Tropical Storm Jeanne is now attacking the southeastern Puerto Rico coast with 70 mph sustained winds gusting to 85 but the interaction with land should weaken her a bit. Flooding and landslides are a major concern. Here in US Virgin Islands, we have been taking some good licks from Jeanne, especially over the last 6 hours with unofficial wind gust's over 90 mph on St. Croix, and 60 on St. John and St. Thomas recorded. The rainfall has been falling horizontally for the last two hours (wind driven) and a flash flood warning is in effect for the Virgin Islands, Culebra, Vieques, and all of Puerto Rico. The rain has halted temporarily but the doppler radar shows much more on the way. Right now, a break in the action of rainfall while the wind continues to howl outside. Doesn't seem to bother my wife Barbara, my cat, or my dog as they are all asleep!   Will the real WAPA please stand up? The power has only flickered a few times here in St. Thomas while most of St. Croix has been without it since midnight as a precautionary measure. Way to go! Cable TV has been on and off and now, it's definitely off. Cell phone lines are jammed (tried to call St. John, all of 4 miles away) and I stopped trying after being told 17 times "All circuits are busy. Please try your call again later"! I wonder what their definition of "later" is. Regular phone service has been pretty good with a couple of interruptions. Overall, St. Croix has been taking the brunt of this storm with Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques next.   As I said before, this is going to be a major flooding event! Speaking of which, there goes the rain again and gusty winds. Please do not try to drive through flooded areas!  The saying "turn around, don't drown" speaks for itself!   I will have to venture out later to go to work so will update afterwards. Good luck to all and be safe!   Dave   P.S. They have martial law in the Cayman Islands where a looter can be shot on sight. Wonder how that would go over here?

Wed, 15 Sep 2004 05:45:17 -0300 - TS Jeanne

Good early morning!   The US Virgin Islands are currently under a hurricane warning as TS Jeanne formed quickly, is moving slowly, and is possibly going to evolve into a category 1 hurricane before it takes on Puerto Rico. Hopefully, it won't slow down too much because that would mean much more rain and that much more flooding!   Maximum sustained winds are at 65 mph with gusts to 75 mph. On St. Croix, a wind gust was recorded at 87.6 mph at 2:54 am. This location is 300 feet above sea level on Maria Hill (thanks for the info).   The US Virgin Islands are under a state of emergency as Governor Turnbull went on radio and television to alert the populace as to what is closed Wednesday (government offices, public schools, etc.). Fortunately, no curfew was invoked.   St. Croix will take the brunt of this storm due to it's proximity to the center of circulation. Right now, Jeanne is slowly strengthening as she passes by with plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity to keep the nightowls busy. I'm definitely a nightowl tonight as I'm searching the house for new leaks and checking with plenty of apprehension, the old ones I believe I plugged the last two weeks. It's raining steady currently and has the last hour with the winds doing a howl from time to time but no significant wind or rain damage has been observed or reported as of this posting. One special note: WAPA (Water and Power Authority) and Innovative Cable have stayed on so far in the northern islands. I understand power is out for a large part of St. Croix but so far, damage is minimal there as well.   Good luck to all down the road from Jeanne and also, good luck St. Croix, Vieques and Culebra!   Time to go check all of the leak areas! Those in the path of Ivan, please get out of the path! This is not a storm to fool around with.   Dave

Tue, 14 Sep 2004 09:19:30 -0300 - Jeanne

Good morning!   Well, there's never a dull day in St. Thomas (sometimes referred to as St. Trauma)! Just as Hurricane Ivan makes his turn and heads for the Gulf Coast of the US mainland, soon- to-be Tropical Storm Jeanne creeps up from the east.   For those of you who have lived or do live in any of the Virgin Islands, regular daily or periodic occurreneces are not so regular. Case in point: WAPA (Water and Power Authority), goes down on a Saturday morning (6:45am) after 5 days of sunshine and virtually no rain, yet managed to stay on all 5 days it rained consecutively back in November! I wonder how they (we) will fare when Jeanne starts her torrential downpours. Fortunately, I just had my generator serviced. Another weather related item: The Doppler radar out of Puerto Rico seems to need maintenance whenever a storm is approaching, like this morning. As a matter of fact, it is "temporarily unavailable" numerous times daily from TWC which frustrates many local folks; especially those who do not have a computer to fall back on. If it's "temporarily unavailable" on TV, you can usually find it on the NWS website working fine. This morning, maintenance in the face of an approaching tropical system seems to be a necessity. I hope that is really the case.   Most Virgin Islanders are taking potential Tropical Storm Jeanne with a grain of salt. Cruise ships are in port as well, adding to the overall sense of well-being. There's even charter companies still taking passengers on these ships for morning "sail and snorkel tours" when they would usually be preparing their boats for the incoming inclement weather. We are under a tropical storm warning and small craft are urged to stay in port. What gives another, albeit small, sense of security is that the system has been drifting westward instead of heading west-northwest but this is supposed to end shortly.   Due to TD#11's wandering ways, we have been warned to expect 7-9 inches of rain, up from 3-6 inches which will cause all types of flooding and small landslide problems if this much materializes. Also, tropical storm force winds are expected this afternoon and to continue into Wednesday night. My mom and her companion (The Rae and Ray Tour) are supposed to arrive on Wednesday afternoon for a week's well-deserved vacation from the northeast. I'm not sure they are going to make it.   While we here in the Northeastern Caribbean have been dodging tropical bullets, other areas have not fared so well and there are several private relief efforts to collect much-needed supplies for the islands of Grenada, St. Vincent and the G's, Jamaica and so on. Even a Senator is helping out which I hope doesn't get misconstrued as it is election year.   Bahama's and the TCI's, watch this storm. The last thing you need is a soaker coming on the heels of Frances!   Speaking of soaking, time to go patch that last crack in the concrete. At least I have my wet-vac ready!   Dave

September 14, 2:05AM EDT - Eleven
A tropical depression formed just east of Guadeloupe. It is now passing over that island. It is moving towards St.Croix, Puerto Rico... It might become tropical storm Jeanne in the next day or so... More updates later (overwhelmed with Ivan at this time)... Use the tools above to calculate how close the storm can get to you...

September 23, 12:05PM EDT - He's back!
Yesterday the Hurricane Center resurrected Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico, where it can make land in Louisiana again! Apparently a part of Ivan got dis-attached from the Big Ivan and started it's own life. Even if the original Ivan's DNA is in this thing, I wouldn't have called this clone Ivan again, but the next up name, Matthew...

Mon, 13 Sep 2004 15:22:02 -0300 - East?

Good afternoon.   Words cannot sometimes say what is felt for the people who have suffered in Grenada, St. Vincent, Tobago, Jamaica, The Caymans, and other islands. My thoughts and prayers are with you all.   While we are all looking towards the west and Ivan the Terrible, another system has been sneaking up on the Northern Caribbean's doorstep from the east. A new tropical depression (#11),  could be initialized as early as 5pm today. Forecasted to bring heavy rains, dangerous marine conditions, and gusty winds to the northern Leeward Islands, this depression will have some potential down the road for further strengthening. A little too early to tell yet though, where it's ultimate path might lead but the Bahamas and TCI's should take notice now. Heading west-northwest at around 12 mph, it's basically centered around 15-16 degrees north and 59 degrees west and already has some banding features around a 1012 mb low.   Even if it doesn't develop today or tonight, it will still be a major player for the next few days in the Northeastern Caribbean. Another wave is 1/2 way across the Atlantic but is very elongated and discombobulated. And there are many more behind this one lined up across Africa just waiting to exit.   As we have just past the historical peak day, our guards should not be let down for a moment. The second half of the season may be, or not be, just as active and deadly as the first. Be safe and be prepared!!!   Dave

September 13, 1:45AM EDT - Cuba - Yucatan!!??
A short update... It's been a long day... The eye of Ivan stayed, just as with Jamaica, just to the west of Grand Cayman! But it passed very close along the western side of the island (7 Mile Beach area/George Town). There are lots of reports of wind damage and flooding, but no casualties so far... Cell phone communications are intermittend... but at least it works sometimes... More reports are posted here.
The official forecast takes the center of Ivan (again a Category 5) to the west of Isle of Youth and over the western tip of Cuba. However... the forecasted track is continuously moving more westward, and looking at the satellite loops, Ivan is wobbling more to the west already then the forecast... These slow moving hurricanes are hard to predict... I see a big danger for the Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula... Right now the closest point of appraoch with Cancun is just 140 miles (23 hours). With this track having a westernly tendency it might get much closer. I don't think that they really understand the potential danger... Strangely enough no hurricane warnings have been posted yet for the Yucatan... You should always err on the safe side with a category 5 hurricane. The Florida Keys didn't get evacuated for nothing last Friday, despite the fact that it now looks that the center will probably a safe 260 miles from Key West, with more then 28 hours to go before it reaches its closest point of approach. So for people in Cancun/Cozumel/etc. reading this... WAKE UP and take the necessary precautions...

Sun, 12 Sep 2004 00:24:47 -0300 - Ivan!

Good evening!   The 6th most intense and strongest hurricane in the Caribbean is now bearing down on the Cayman Islands after dealing Jamaica a close but non-catastrophic blow. Ivan slowed down in forward progress which allowed it to make a left turn just before it reached the island itself, although the eye remained ominously close the whole trek bye. Still, immense damage has been done, especially since the storm decided to slow down and allow many more inches of rain to fall than originally thought. For those of you in Jamaica who believe in "Jah" or another higher entity, give them well deserved thanks and praise!   The Cayman's are more in harms way than originally forecast; as Hurricane Ivan, a now Category 5 hurricane with gusts to 200 mph, bears down with a slightly different track. This is another example, albeit deadlier, of how hurricanes can change their destinations with no regard to humans forecast's. Once again, it must be stressed that hurricanes do not alway's follow forecasters predictions! Weather is not a complete science but a work in progress so it behooves everyone in harms possible way to pay heed as sudden changes are unpredictable such as Hurricane Charley's unexpected sudden turn inland at Port Charlotte, Fla., instead of north of Tampa Bay.   Computer models currently take Ivan through the Florida Panhandle which would be another horrific blow to a state which has seen it's very recent share of storms from the east and the west. Do not take these models as the "I am". Prepare anyway like you would for a direct hit. Smugness could lead to "OOPS!" which has been observed many times this hurricane season already!   I applaud the Florida Keys and Jamaica for their foresight and, hey, even Cuba, for their forthrightness in advance of Ivan. Once again, the Isle of Youth and it's populace, are in a direct path, but this time from a much stronger storm than the last few years. I wish other governments and their respective media  would sit up, take notice, issue watches and warnings in advance, and make pre-emptive precautions. Unfortunately, it usually takes the imminent threat of a direct or very close hit to get anyone to make a strategic decision! Remember, peoples, and even animals lives are at stake! Sorry, the almighty dollar has to take a backseat once in a while. Better to be safe than to be sorry. Recovery of funds is one thing. Recovery of lives is another!   Dave

September 11, 5:05PM EDT - Grand Cayman
Two bad developments for Grand Cayman. 1. Ivan is again a category 5 hurricane, with 165 mph (!!!) sustained winds. 2. Earlier it looked like the eye was staying about 30 miles to the east of Grand Cayman, the 5PM forecast predicts that the eye is going to go straight over Grand Cayman... See this little map I made with the CPA calculator. The green dot is the airport on Grand Cayman, the red dots the forecast and the yellow dot roughly the Closest Point of Approach. That will be in 18 hours... For Little Cayman and Cayman Brac this is better... It now is expected to pass over the western side of the Isle of Youth and far western side of Cuba (about 95 miles from Habana).
Since the track forecasts are more to the west each time, let's hope that Ivan will go more west then expected, passing Grand Cayman on the west side... Also, hurricanes have a hard time to stay this powerful, hopefully it will weaken somewhat in the next 18 hours... It will however remain a very dangerous hurricane. Reports from the local hurricane correspondents can be found here. There is also a Plea for Help board for Cayman.

September 11, 12:40PM EDT - Cayman...
It looks like Jamaica was spared the highest winds of Monster Ivan. The eye stayed just south of the island. It is amazing on the satellite loop to see how the eye circled around, instead of over, the island. The other good thing is that not all communication is down. With Grenada earlier this week the most frightening thing was that no-one knew what was going on, other than that is was really bad, because all communication were lost. Now I have seen tidbits of info from people who have been talking to people on the island by landlines. I even got a report earlier by one of my hurricane correspondents on Jamaica. The reports can be found here. I also set up a Plea for Help board for Jamaica where people post some info.
So now the Cayman Islands are next. Did it look earlier that Cayman Brac and Little Cayman would get the brunt of the storm, now it looks like Grand Cayman is getting it after all... The latest closest point of approach (CPA) of the center of the storm for Grand Cayman Airport (located on the western side) is just 32 miles (in 24 hours). So it will be closer for the eastern side of Grand Cayman. For Little Cayman and Cayman Brac the CPA is 47 and 65 miles respectively. Reports from the local hurricane correspondents can be found here. There is also a Plea for Help board for Cayman.
Maximum sustained winds are still near 145 mph. A dangerous category 4 hurricane. It might even become a Category 5 before it reaches Cayman... The other bad thing is that the forward speed of Ivan is only 8mph, so it will take longer to pass over as well....
Last but not least... the situation on Grenada is still very bad. There infrastructure is not as hurricane-proof as on Cayman or Jamaica since they almost never get any... If you want to help, I listed many relief efforts on this page.

Fri, 10 Sep 2004 09:06:30 -0300 - Son of Gilbert?

Good morning!   Having received many e-mails concerning loved ones, family and friends, especially in Grenada, I'm sorry to say I do not have direct contact with anyone there as we receive all of our information via the stormcarib website. Please direct your inquiries to the respective Emergency Operations Centers in the country of inquiry or CDREA. A rather complete listing of CDREA coordinators and contact numbers is listed on the Grenada posting of September 9th. also, please check the Pleas for Help bulletin board on this website as another avenue for possible contact.   I am asking all correspondents to please submit with their postings, if possible, local numbers of their Emergency Response Centers so that concerned relatives and friends have another option to try to find someone in the path or wake of Ivan and any other storms. Thank you in advance!   As far as Hurricane Ivan is concerned, I have dubbed him "Son of Gilbert!" Referencing Hurricane Gilbert which devastated Jamaica on September 12th, 1988, Hurricane Ivan poses a more serious threat, especially if it is a direct hit, or even if just the northern part of the storm, which is the strongest, passes over. Jamaican's, and for that matter, Cayman Islanders, if you've seen or heard reports of what catastrophic damage Ivan did to relatively unprepared Grenada, you'll understand the need to heed your local authorities orders to evacuate or rush to completion your hurricane preparations and then get to, or stay somewhere safe. This storm is a life-threatening situation! I cannot stress that enough!   The possibility still exists for Ivan to strengthen back into a category 5 before hitting Jamaica and probably will. 6-12 inches of rain are forecast for Jamaica which will cause extraordinary flooding. In the mountainous terrain landslides, mudslides and deforestation will occur as the rainfall will be torrential at it's mildest. Yes, I said mildest.  At it's current 145 mph wind speed, a strong Category 4, catastrophic structural damage will occur as well so if you are living in a place of dubious construction, leave now and get to a shelter! It's a real possibility your house, and unfortunately if you stay in it,  maybe even yourself, will not be around afterwards. So please judge accordingly. Houses can be rebuilt. You, more than likely, will not be.   The Caymans are next after Jamaica although Haiti and the Dominican Republic still will, and are, feeling the fringe effects of this storm. Four children in the DR were drowned as a result of Ivan. Then it's on to Western Cuba and ultimately, as the computer models are in good agreement, South Florida following a Hurricane Charley path. But it's really the Caribbean we are concerned about here. There's other media which can take care of the mainland as we have discussed previously.   Bahama's, you could even get some of Ivan as it's a huge storm in diameter, so watch Ivan's path closely. The closer to Florida's west coast, and hopefully not the east as far as your concerned, the more effects you will feel.   Prayers and thoughts are with all as over the next few days, sadly, some areas of the Caribbean will look like Armageddon; just look at Grenada and it's people if you think I'm kidding.   Dave

September 10, 2:30AM EDT - Jamaica...
Not much to tell... Ivan is now a category 4 hurricane, packing 145 mph winds. It is going for Jamaica. Not much weakening expected in the next 24 hours... The center is expected to make landfall at around midnight... Tropical storm winds could be felt 14 hours earlier... That is 10AM... You guys better be prepared!!! REMEMBER: Stay out of flood-prone areas, either coastal or in the hills.. Most casualties with hurricanes are due to drowning, not wind inflicted!. Find reports by the special local hurricane correspondents on the islands above. I also redesigned the Pleas for Help bulletin board. There are now different forums for each island...

September 9, 1:30AM EDT - Jamaica...
First things first... It doesn't look good for Grenada. It reminds me a lot of St.Maarten after Luis back in 1995... There are several relief efforts underway in Florida, New York, Trinidad... Also, a disaster relief fund has been set up by the Consulate General of Grenada. For more information see the Grenada Reports Webpage. I am getting flooded with e-mail from people who are worried about their family and friends on the island, who unfortunately I can't help. All info I get is published on the website. You can try posting on the Plea for Help bulletin board. You will also find more tidbits of info posted by others.
Luckily for Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and Margarita Is. Ivan passed safely about 100 miles north of them. Of course this big category 4 hurricane, packing 145mph sustained winds did impact those islands (see some reports by the local hurricane correspondents above.
Unfortunately Grenada doesn't seem to be the only one in Ivan's destructive path. Next up is Jamaica. According to the 11PM advisories the center of the storm is expected to pass over the island in 40 hours (Friday at 3PM). Since tropical storm winds extend outward at that time to up to 175 miles, and if the storm keeps moving at 17mph, tropical storm winds will reach Jamaica around 5AM on Friday. Also, further strengthening is expected. The 2AM advisory reports that Ivan is now a category 5 (the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) with 160mph sustained winds, a so-called catastrophic hurricane... So, please, Jamaicans, don't fool around with this one. Don't hope that it will go north or something. All computer models agree pretty well on the track in the next 48 hours. You will have to be really well prepared. Just take a look at Grenada... This one is going to be way worse then Allen in 1980 or Gilbert in 1988...
After Jamaica, Ivan is expected to move over the Cayman Islands. Especially the most north-eastern island Cayman Brac is in the danger zone. It's closest point of approach is calculated at just 48 miles in about 65 hours (Saturday 9/11, 4PM). Tropical storm winds will be felt Saturday morning. Since it is a bit further in the future, the forecasted track has more uncertainty. Meaning that it might get even closer. All of Cayman should prepare for the worst. No kidding with a Category 5 storm!.
Then as it looks right now the storm will pass over western Cuba, and maybe into Florida (about the same track as Charley...).
Stay tuned to this website for updates from the islands... Do you live on the Caribbean, and want to join the network of local hurricane correspondents, e-mail me at gert@gobeach.com.
Finally, a big thank you to my service provider Pair.com, who moved my website graciously to a dedicated server to handle the traffic! Yesterday alone this website got almost 2 million hits, and used about 50 Gbytes of bandwidth... If you are ever looking for a webhost..., they are the ones!

Wed, 8 Sep 2004 11:49:59 -0400 (AST) - Ivan and Beyond

Good morning!

My sympathies and prayers to those devastated by the passage of Ivan the
Terrible. Grenada's direct hit and subsequent cut-off from all
communications, save for a few lucky cell phones, make for many
apprehensive relatives not in harms way. We will try our best to keep you
updated as this tragic situation unfolds and more reports are forthcoming.
Please don't expect rapid re-establishment of communications as the
islands infrastructure has taken a massive blow.

This also is in reference to, although on a less devastating note, the
islands of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Mustique,
Barbados, St. Lucia and so on, including the ABC islands which haven't
felt the direct blow of a hurricane in, I believe it's 127 years!

Hurricane Ivan's projected path now takes it across Jamaica, Caymen's, the
Isle of Youth and Western Cuba; then continuing up Florida's west coast,
ala Charley. At least that's the official forecast and the National
Hurricane Center has been pretty accurate so far in their 6 hour
predictions. As a side note, I believe the Isle of Youth south of Western
Cuba, has been hit the most over the last few 2-4 years. Amazing for such
a small island to be repeatedly threatened, and hit, by these storms.

I would like to thank everyone for their support for my comments on
tropical information, or lack thereof, from local governments and national
medias like The Weather Channel here in the Caribbean. Please forward your
comments to weather.com  at the What do you think section and your local
government agency or media as well. Maybe, together, we can all make a
difference.

Hurricane Ivan is nothing to be procrastinating about. If you lie in
his path, take the necessary precautions ASAP. This is a dangerous system
and nothing to play around with and "hope for the best."

Dave

September 8, 2AM EDT - Grenada
The eye of Ivan passed over Grenada... First reports from Grenada don't sound too good... Let's hope for the best... The other islands, except probably for some of the Grenadines, seemed to have fared ok (see above).
Ivan (now a category 4 hurricane) will pass about 100 miles north of the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), well outside the range of hurricane strenght winds (70 miles) but they will get tropical force winds. Same for Margarita Island, Venezuela. (see some updates above). Hopefully Ivan doesn't drift south because it might become even stronger and reach the highest category on the saffir-simpson scale...
Then it is on to Jamaica (eye will be there in about 2½ days) and Cayman's.... Use the tools above to calculate how close the storm can get to your locations....

Older weather discussions on Ivan have moved to another page.