|2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Martin | Nicole | Owen | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (10:20 UTC, 15 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Thursday, August 11, 2022 19:31PM EDT
- Quiet for how long?
The lull continues thankfully in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the GOMEX for now but when will that end? Or will it be a quiet season as we all would wishcast for? With La Nina expected to continue in force throughout the fall, among other atmospheric factors, I expect the lull to end sooner than later as well as the end of the "quiet before the storm."
Currently, ex 97L is meandering discombobulated and deflated around 43W moving about 5 degrees west per day and should start to move a bit more to the NW as it feels a slight weakness in the usually strong Bermuda ridge and takes advantage of that notch. With that said, the Caribbean should be out of the cone zone but remaining bereft of much needed rainfall. Running into higher wind shear and more Saharan dust (very dry air) this open wave stands little chance of organizing into anything for days to come. However, it stands a meager chance as it gets between that Bermuda High and a trough coming off the US but again, meager. Never discount totally any wave that makes it that far though.
Behind, on the African continent, the pretenders are lining up and their chances of becoming contenders are increasing daily as atmospheric conditions, along with La Nina's assistance, are about to align for the last few weeks of August into September. While SST's (sea surface temperatures) are a tad lower than usual for this time of season and the SAL (Saharan Dust Layer) remains persistent and thick, the relentless wave train will eventually spawn potential disaster. This lull is in the weather. It should not be a lull in your awareness or preparedness.
In the SW Caribbean, potential is there but nothing concrete while in the GOMEX (Gulf of Mexico), another end of a trough is hanging out south of Louisiana. Again, nothing concrete. If anything a quick spinup possible before saying a very welcome "hello I'm here to help you with your drought" Texas. Off the middle Atlantic states, another "potential" in a few days but that will be short lived at best.
Basically, for those who have prepared and are ready, awesome! For those who are complacent and not prepared, I suggest Mother Nature has given you a bit more time to do so.
Stay safe and prepared!
Friday, August 5, 2022 20:46PM EDT
- Low rider season continues
Good evening all,
Gert has shared already the updates the experts have forecast for the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Not much change but a tad downward. Not enough though to make a big difference and it's still above average as well as the strike probabilities in most areas. Again not much change. An early jumpstart to the season saw three named storms, one which formed over land and died over land 24 hours later aka Colin, but nothing but dust since. That jumpstart had many thinking wow we are in for a jamming season. The lull in activity obviously surprised many but also raised concern among many as what will the remainder of the season hold. Bust or boom?
There are several areas to chat about but not much in the way of "promise" except the one ready to splash down off the coast of Africa and this one might not live up to the "promise" but still pave the way for those behind.
The wave about to dump heavy possibly flash flooding rains on Costa Rica and Nicaragua had potential with lowering shear and atmospheric pressures but limited time to pull it together. Still, while undeveloped, a menace to those countries regardless.
The system that left the Louisiana coast and dipped south then NW had possibilities but again, ran out of time. With most of Texas is in a moderate to severe drought situation, including flood prone Houston, it should bring some welcoming rains to alleviate some of the drought but also flash flooding on the concrete jungle of the city as well as the drought hardened ground.
The surface trough now between the Bahamas and Bermuda which previously gave Bermuda some much blessed rain had moved SW after it's Bermuda visit and showed some signs of tropical life. However, this evening, it appears to be poofing under the strong westerly influence of the Bermuda high to its east. You never know so something maybe to watch the next few days.
There are several waves, limited in activity, crossing the Atlantic MDR and they are all, at the moment, lowriders. This means moving close and parallel to the ITCZ also below the Saharan Dust Layer above. None are forecast to break through and become a named storm. There is one though, splashing down as I write this, with potential. There are also a few lined up already behind it so expect the activity to ramp up, maybe not this week coming, but in the next weeks after. With the West African monsoon upticking, the waves will become more prolific and the MDR bowling alley will be open for business.
Ok there is just an overview of the situation at hand. Lowriders pose a more considerable concern for several reasons. They tend to hide under the Saharan Dust Layer, just ride along the top of the ITCZ while not raising much concern, and are much less inclined to turn into "fish storms". Once they escape the draft of the ITCZ and start to turn with the earth's spin aka the Coriolis effect which only changes direction, not speed, these lowriders, if they haven't turned before 50W, are prone to become very dangerous tropical systems.
On a historical note, this August 16th marks the 30 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's demure start and devastating road trip through the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana which officially ended August 29th, 1992. For many who survived his tragic impacts, it seems like yesterday. Lessons have been learned but some have been ignored to this day sadly.
Stay prepared and safe.
Friday, August 5, 2022 09:58AM PDT - Still above average season expected
- We have not had any hurricanes yet this season, but updated forecasts out this week still calls for an above average season. The researchers at Colorado State has lowered the number of storm a bit, but stll expects 15 more named storms (18 total, was 20, 14.4 is normal), 8 hurricanes (was 10, 7.2 is normal) of which 4 are expected to reach Category 3 or higher (major hurricanes, was 5, 3.2 is normal). The probability for at least one 'big one' to travel throught the Caribbean (a big area) is 57% (was 64%, normal is 42%). Main reasons for this are the below normal subtropical sea surface temperatures, on the other hand, La Nina conditions will like persist through the season (which normally increases activity). NOAA also decreased their numbers a bit (see here), but still expects above normal season.
In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (taken from: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html).
|Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles|
One last note regarding a late start of the season... I read on The Eye of the Storm blog: “If we make it until August 13 with no named storm formations (fairly likely), it’ll be the first time since 1999 that we went from July 4 to August 13 with no named storm formations,” said CSU’s Philip Klotzbach in a Twitter direct message. He added: “Of course, 1999 ended up a hyperactive season, so there’s that!”. That was the year of Floyd and Lenny... Whatever happens happens, the only thing we can do is prepare, prepare, prepare! Stay safe! -Gert
Thursday, July 21, 2022 20:17PM EDT
- Atlantic ramp up soon
Good evening all from CLT airport,
Just a quick drop in between the early season eye opening and the impending Atlantic ramp up that is almost certain to manifest itself as we transition from weeks of sudden calm with copious amounts of Saharan dust to a more active pattern starting around the 7-10 day mark into the first few weeks of August. This is not based on my concrete definity but a prognosis based upon experience and the potential atmospheric components coming together as they rotate around the earth. It's their time to be in the Atlantic as they have had the eastern Pacific all to their own the last few weeks.
The SAL, aka Saharan Dust Layer is quite prolific and stretches thousands of miles and in between the rains we received today in the northern islands, extremely welcomed ones by the way, and the next tropical wave that has exited the African coast is a large swath of it. This swath will result in very hazy, hot and dry days for the next almost week. This wave looks impressive upon splashdown but has little chance of development. However, it will sacrifice itself and help pave the way for future waves by moistening the atmosphere ahead of the followers. The wave that exits to the north will have a slightly better chance at initial development but will eventually fall prey to the dust mantis as well.
Look for the first few weeks of August to show tropical life in the Caribbean, maybe the GOMEX and the eastern Atlantic MDR (Main Development Region). If you haven't prepared yet, you still have time but time waits for no man or storm so take advantage of this lull in the action and finalize your preparations.If you have ever been through a Marilyn. Ivan, Irma, Maria and others, you already should know better. Teach and lead the others who do not know or maybe don't want to know. Their lives might depend on it. Not a scare but a truth.
Stay safe and prepared!
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is emerging over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico and it continues to produce disorganized shower activity.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and
a tropical depression could form while the system moves
northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late today or
on Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to
move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of
development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Aug 18 23:47]
- St.Thomas [Aug 16 19:39]
- Curaçao [Aug 14 23:04]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 14 7:58]
- Barbados [Aug 13 18:34]
- Antigua [Aug 12 14:13]
- Nevis [Aug 10 2:48]
- Grenada [Aug 8 8:16]
- Dominica [Aug 8 8:15]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 7 7:54]
- Bermuda [Aug 4 15:39]
- Barbuda [Jul 10 7:46]
- St.Lucia [Jul 4 6:53]
- Vieques (PR) [Jul 2 11:06]
- Montserrat [May 29 19:37]
- Haiti [May 29 10:38]
- Cayman Islands [May 22 9:01]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 17 18:49]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x