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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Kirk
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (13:00 UTC, 29 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].

Kirk tools:

Tuesday, September 25, 2018 13:39PM PDT - Kirk
The remnants of Kirk are approaching the islands. It looks pretty impressive on the satellite images, but since there is no closed circulation it cannot be called a cyclone. Sea surface temperatures are pretty warm, wind shear is not too high, but the dry air is inhibiting strengthening. However, the National Hurricane Center still gives it a 60% of redeveloping in the next couple of days. The storm is moving pretty fast at 20+ mph. It will pass through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, so be prepared for some squally weather, wind gusts can still reach tropical storm strength and locally you can expect a couple of inch of rain. You can use the MySat-tool to view high resolution satellite loops centered on your location to monitor the approach of the storm. -Gert

Saturday, September 22, 2018 14:55PM EDT - Brief respite but now...

Good afternoon,

After last weeks frenetic activity in the Atlantic culminating in a tumultuous Hurricane Florence landfall in the Carolinas, a few days respite was observed in the Atlantic basin. How short lived that was.

First we have a non tropical low which spun off from a front that was carrying the remnants of Florence across the North Atlantic. This will probably become first sub tropical then tropical over the next few days and being a 'cut off" low, it will have weak steering currents leaving it a wandering name with no particular place to go until the next front swoops in and carries it to the UK and Europe possibly affecting the Azores directly on the way. Interesting enough, they have been pretty busy dodging storms there this season already. This is 90L and maybe even Leslie.

Next is 98L, a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, the spawn of Florence. However, it will not be renamed Florence if it attains named status. Current forecast thinking is it does minimally develop and head towards the Carolina coast but on the way, the cavalry will ride to the rescue in the form of that weather super good guy, wind shear. Seems like wind shear is almost every where in the Atlantic right now and has been particularly strong across the Caribbean. At this time, 98L or whatever it becomes is expected to skirt the Carolina coast and OBX before the next front carries it away. Still, even the thought of this is creating anxieties where Florence plodded ashore. Something to keep a close eye on if wind shear doesn't arrive timely.

TD#11 is going to have a short shelf life if forecasts are accurate. Once again, wind shear is expected to be ferocious as it makes it's way WNW towards the islands. If this holds true, it will be nothing but a regular tropical wave with some vigor as it passes through. Some flash flooding is a possibility. Like Isaac and Beryl, no match for the dynamic duo of wind shear and dry air.

On to what we know now as TS Kirk. Kirk has formed at a very low latitude, about 8.3 N with 40 mph satellite derived winds. It's till September and CV storms are still in vogue. Kirk is not an anomaly and definitely warrants our attention here in the islands but it has some usual suspects to overcome.

Two of those are well known and mentioned above: wind shear and dry air with a big dose of Saharan Dust which seems more prolific this late in September than other years. SST's are conducive and will be for the remainder of his travels so they are not an issue. The one unusual suspect is his formation below 10 N. This puts TS Kirk closer to the equator where he cannot take full advantage of the earths rotation to spin up and start circulating. Kirk is expected to develop another issue soon and that's a fast forward speed. Once he starts trucking along about 20-25 mph it will be hard for the COC (center of circulation) to keep up which will negatively affect his structure and growing prospects. Once Kirk makes his way close to the Caribbean, wind shear is expected to slam his door shut on further development and might even tear him apart as has been customary so far. But that is 4-5 days out. Still, never trust a CV storm. Plus, if he muscles his way through the islands, the Western Caribbean and GOM could have a real problem on their doorstep.

Dave



Saturday, September 22, 2018 10:18AM PDT - TD 11 and Kirk
The tropical wave just off the African coast is now tropical storm Kirk. The storm is at quite a low latitude, only 8.3N. Its projected path is pretty much due west, which could take it close to Barbados on Thursday. So far it is not expected to become a hurricane. Waters are plenty warm, and wind shear is not that high, but the low latitude and expected speedy forward motion won't help. Let's hope that holds true! Use the closest point of approach-tool to check when and how close it can get to you.

Tropical depression 11, much closer by us, is not expected to be much of a threat. It is kind of stationary, and about to fall apart and become a tropical wave.

Meanwhile, this morning I saw on TV an interesting report about Vieques, the "Forgotten Island". It showed that the electrical grid has not been restored at all, and that they are totally dependent on generators. The hospital is not operational either, patients fly to Saba for dialysis apparently. See it on the CBS This Morning website. On Sunday there will also be a one-hour special on CBSN about Puerto Rico: Puerto Rico: The exodus after Maria. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has re-initiated advisories on
Tropical Storm Kirk, located a few hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands.

A weak low pressure area located about 100 miles southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is producing disorganized shower
activity, well to the east of the center.  Strong upper-level
winds are expected to inhibit development of this system.  The low
is forecast to move northeastward this morning, and it could produce
scattered showers and dangerous surf and rip currents across eastern
North Carolina as it passes by.  The low is expected to continue
moving northeastward and merge with a frontal system or dissipate
offshore of the New England coast on Thursday.  For more
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing disorganized shower
activity and gale-force winds.  Leslie is expected to reacquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics on Thursday or Friday while
the cyclone meanders over the north-central Atlantic.  For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Dominica [Sep 26 8:55]
- St.Lucia [Sep 26 8:07]
- Antigua [Sep 26 7:51]
- St.Thomas [Sep 26 7:48]
- Grenada [Sep 26 6:29]
- Nevis [Sep 26 6:22]
- Barbados [Sep 25 18:31]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 25 9:54]
- St.Croix [Sep 21 22:47]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 20:53]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 16 23:25]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 14 13:17]
- Martinique [Sep 14 10:22]
- Anguilla [Sep 13 16:02]
- Montserrat [Sep 12 21:52]
- Belize [Sep 9 7:55]
- Haiti [Sep 7 7:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 6 9:42]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 28 12:19]
- Bonaire [Aug 17 5:51]
- Puerto Rico [Jul 9 15:00]
- St.John [Jul 9 9:45]
- Guadeloupe [Jul 9 7:08]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Jun 21 14:17]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert