Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Humberto
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (16:20 UTC, 20 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Humberto tools:

Sunday, September 15, 2019 07:19AM EDT - Slow down of sorts

Good Sunday morning,

TS Humberto is still lumbering along north of the Bahamas, east of FloridaÂwith his tail still lashing parts of the central Bahamas all the while looking like an angry parrot since he is having trouble closing off his SSW and SE side due to the relentless wind shear from the system in the eastern GOM. This however, is lessening and Humberto the Hurricane will be born soon. I wonder if the ugly duckling, pretty swan story will play here as Humberto is one ugly tropical storm. Â

Fortunately for the NW Bahamas, that wind shear has protected them from Humberto adding to the misery caused by cat 5 Dorian. The last thing they need is another tropical entity overhead. Now pulling away, he is headed for a possible interaction with Bermuda as a borderline Cat 3 but there is a lot of ocean to cross first.

The GOM possibility west of Florida is fizzling and the models are not bullish on tropical formation but heavy rains and gusty winds along the gulf coast will ensue, especially in Texas later this coming week.

96L is no more. A victim of his own speedy road runner actions plus a healthy dose of late season Saharan Dust, led to an early demise. He even collected the non invest that was just behind him but adding to his arsenal was a failure which is great news. Rains and gusty winds will be entertained by the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands but that should be it's final act. The possibility of regeneration after entering the Eastern Caribbean is remote but not completely out of the question.

The next candidate is an elongated tropical wave which is so broad in nature, it would take a few days to get it's act together and that is what the models are suggesting. Possible 97L could make TD status in about three days but is forecast to become a fish storm, passing several hundred miles to the NW of the Lesser Antilles. Let's hope so. "I" storms are notoriously bad.

One new wave just splashed down and several are still marching across Africa. The next three weeks, especially at the end of the month, look to be quite active which is reasonable considering we still have 1/2 a hurricane season to go. Stay vigilant!

Dave


Saturday, September 14, 2019 13:45PM PDT - Humberto
The center of now tropical storm Humberto is passing just to the north of Abaco now. Fortunately not over Abaco or Grand Bahama. Tropical storm winds could be felt on the islands, but the worst windwise should be over. There is quite a tail, and depending on the timing of the rotation and location of the islands, a lot more rain might be falling, or not much more... It could have been worse with this one for the Bahamas, but still no fun when you house structure is compromised already, or just don't have a roof, or worse, no house at all. Again, help is still needed. Check out the Bahamas reports page for places to donate!

Bermuda should pay attention to this storm as well. It might pass pretty close as a hurricane in 4 days or so...

Elsewhere.... we have a few waves in the Atlantic, of 96L being the most noteworthy, still far out, but it could become the next named storm. The GFS and ECMWF model shows that it will turn north enough to not affect the islands. Stay tuned... -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located more than 100 miles north of the
northwestern Bahamas.

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. Shower activity remains disorganized and only
slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or two.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for gradual development through the middle of the week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough.  Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Grenada [Sep 15 7:41]
- St.Croix [Sep 15 0:02]
- St.Thomas [Sep 14 14:03]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 14 12:35]
- Dominica [Sep 14 3:38]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 13 4:02]
- Bahamas [Sep 13 2:03]
- Antigua [Sep 9 20:30]
- Barbados [Sep 9 15:04]
- Anguilla [Sep 8 15:06]
- Nevis [Sep 7 20:32]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 3 16:25]
- Martinique [Sep 3 11:08]
- Florida Keys [Sep 2 9:08]
- St.Lucia [Sep 2 6:34]
- Belize [Sep 1 13:07]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 31 19:59]
- St.John [Aug 29 19:51]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 29 2:22]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 28 17:50]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 28 14:59]
- Montserrat [Aug 26 20:06]
- Bermuda [Aug 26 9:52]
- Haiti [Aug 19 13:55]
- Saba [Aug 19 9:20]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 31 0:16]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Apr 3 9:00]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert