- - Trinidad & Tobago - -

Although further immediate intensification of 95L seems to have halted temporarily, for the time being the system still bears watching as it nears the area of the windward islands. Of course, climatology is still in its favour, And certain models have been trending more southward as well which is concerning. The re-formation of a new more southerly closed low level centre of circulation, or a low level meso- circulation is a real possibility. Also, weakened systems will be more than likely to move more in a westerly direction while re- developing instead of heading more west north westerly or North Westerly. All of the Windward islands need to pay attention to this approaching tropical wave. Hopefully, sudden organisation and intensification may not happen near or directly over the southern windward isles.

Additional vigilance is required once again as this system is already capable of producing winds to at least tropical storm force. Therefore, irrespective of whether this system gets named, or has any further significant development -tropical storm conditions, with the potential for intense trough type impacts will likely spread across most of the southern islands of the Lesser Antilles within 24-36hrs. & With the recent battering that the ITCZ has given to some of the southern isles especially to Trinidad and Tobago; heightened precaution is definitely needed.
I hope that all concerned will Stay prepared, & Remain alert as this weather threat inches ever closer to the southern Windwards with the potential for significant effects... 

95L definitely seems to be getting better organized inspite of shear as was hinted at in earlier posts. A closed low level centre of circulation appears to be getting better formed as is evident on 'windy' & earth.nullschool.net

Potential tropical cyclone warnings may be necessary for the southern windwards soon...

Be prepared and vigilant everyone.

The following early forecast was released by the TT Weather Center which speaks to the likely threat(s) of the approaching disturbance:

(This could always change)
— Between 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) with isolated totals up to 4 inches (100 mm) are possible across the Southern Windwards, mainly north of Trinidad and Tobago. There is the threat of street flooding and flash flooding Wednesday into Thursday.

(Riverine flooding is a possibilty)
— Moderate seas with waves generally near 2.0 meters and up to 2.5 meters are possible in open waters east of T&T on Wednesday into Thursday.
— Gusty winds in excess of 65 KM/H possible. Winds of this strength will produce wind damage, including downed trees, utility poles and roof damage. Localized power outages  are possible.

As I've been hinting in the past - there is a sustained  tropical cyclonic threat to the Southern windwards which may materialize with this system. Keep vigilant and safe. Some inclement weather ahead of this system is expected from a tropical wave and the ITCZ...

Well the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) continues to negatively affect the weather in Trinidad and Tobago. Here in the North Western Peninsular the worst of the weather so far rolled in near 1p.m., which brought moderate to heavy thundershowers across the Port of Spain area and environs. Of course, there have been the usual reports of street and flash flooding across parts of Western, southern, northern and eastern Trinidad.

Keep safe everyone especially those in the worst affected areas of Tobago.

Thankfully, today's inclement weather was not too impactful. Overall, the East and North East parts of Trinidad seemed to have experienced the forecasted heavy rainfall. Mainly light showers fell here in the Northwestern peninsular which brought some cool breezes which were really welcomed.

However, the ITCZ is forecast to continue affecting Trinidad and Tobago between Tuesday 8th October and Friday 11th October 2019. This will likely bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to both islands, which will most likely trigger some street and flash flooding. According to the TT Weather center it will likely be a wet week, so there is a small chance of riverine flooding including some potential for downed trees, utility poles, and lines; & possibly landslides/landslips; power outages and hazardous seas in the most affected areas. As a result a Yellow weather alert has been issued by the TT met office for the next 24-36hrs.

Over the next 24 hours rain showers, and thunderstorm activity is forecast to persist across both islands. Although heavier activity is forecast across Tobago and the Northern and Eastern halves of Trinidad. In heavy showers and thunderstorms, street/flash flooding and gusty winds in excess of 55 KM/H are possible.

Also, some of the weather models are hinting at possible stormy and potentially cyclonic impacts by the coming week for the windward islands... As always it's a wait and see situation, however let's not become complacent. Already it seems like it has been a fairly stormy start to the week in most of the windward islands with the passage of the latest tropical wave which preceded the ITCZ cloud mass. Michael's prediction appeared to be mostly on target there... Infact, winds recorded at Hewanorra Airport in St. Lucia over the last 24-36hrs measured Tropical storm force gusts to as much as 51mph and near sustained storm force winds at times! That's quite a serious wind event recorded in St. Lucia being unrelated to a named tropical system. & Grenada and Barbados airports also recorded very windy conditions. 

Stay prepared everyone, & regards to Ian.

The discontinuation of the weather alert at 1p.m. by the met may have been a little pre-mature it seems, at least for the north western peninsular of Trinidad.

So far we have had the heaviest thunder- shower this afternoon since we began to be affected early this morning by this latest system. In fact, the most recent round of stormy weather appeared to impact areas a lot more to our west like Point Cumana/ Carenage, compared to the sort of intermittent deluge we have been having in the St. Clair- Woodbrook area. Thankfully, of course, this is not another 'Karen' however, it seems likely that some minor street and flash flooding may be occurring in the urban 'east- west' corridor. We also had a slight dip in the electricity just recently with an overhead thunderstorm... Lightning activity must be waxing near the capital.(Be safe out there)...

Again the likelihood for further inclement weather conditions by not too distant incoming systems, and additional Tropical maritime cyclonic type impact remains for the southern windwards including Trinidad and Tobago -so we do need to remain prepared and vigilant for the balance of this wet/ hurricane season. 

Nevertheless, hopefully this inclement weather will benefit the volume and holding capacity of our water reservoirs, which are still in a deficit. Unfortunately, the more glaring effects of accelerated global warming and climate change are becoming increasingly evident here with the growing threat of unpredictable weather patterns, & even "flash droughts" & extended 'heat seasons' disrupting our usual wet season patterns. These are unusual times for our planet for sure. Stay alert folks...

Well, we are on a wait and see in terms of full expected impacts from this system... Not terribly organized at the moment, which is a good thing of course. It remains to be seen how disruptive this active wave may get here in TnT. We are currently under a yellow alert by the met service beginning from 2am onwards to the afternoon.

So far it seems to have been pretty accurate as I was awoken by peals of thunder just earlier. & showers have been noted in the south and east of Trinidad as a band of convection spreads westward & northward.

Hopefully, when all is said and done the areas still weary of flood waters after tropical storm Karen will not be badly inundated once again.

Keep safe everybody.

If the GFS and a couple other reliable models are to be trusted- it appears that Potential threats are looming for the southern windwards once more, & possibly for the Leewards from this coming weekend into next week respectively.

& given the precedent of the "Lesser Antilles Rule" so far; cases in point Dorian and Karen- the real potential for cyclogenesis is indeed very possible.

Remain vigilant...

Conditions are normalising... Over the last few hours our general Rainfall rates and intensity have let up thankfully. Nevertheless, Life threatening Flood damage resulted in Trinidad after tropical storm Karen brought substantial flooding damage first to Tobago earlier in the day (>132mm) and later to Trinidad (>75mm). In some cases in Trinidad motorists who were trapped in quickly rising flood waters had to swim for their lives to safety. However, the worst damage seemed to have been concentrated in Western and Northern/ Central areas of Trinidad. So far no major injuries or deaths have been attributed to the Storm, thank God.

Notably for the last few hours tropical storm Karen has had a bit of a sheared appearance as a result of strong northwesterly wind shear. & this actually prevented the system from strengthening right on top of us, thank God. Its bands eventually stretched out all the way to Guyana in South America, which no doubt would have triggered flash flooding there too.

We are so Grateful that this storm was Not any stronger as it could have resulted in even more extreme weather conditions over Trinidad, and much more extensive damage in both Trinidad & Tobago. Right now conditions have mostly let up right across Trinidad & Tobago with just a light drizzle occurring at times- a far cry from the deluge which was swamping the nation mere hours ago. Additional rainfall with occasional gusty winds are still forecast into tonight.

As a result of the damaging impacts from the storm earlier today a decision has been taken that Schools will be closed tomorrow, although the U.W.I campus will be opening despite some flooding there. Presently utilities are still being restored in TnT, & TnTec has promised that most outages ought to be fixed in both Trinidad and Tobago by tomorrow God's Willing. Helicopter activity commenced late in the afternoon from the North west helipad facility & likely entailed aerial surveys of flooded regions. Riverine flood alerts remain in full effect as some rivers continue to rise as flood run off gets into their already swollen channels...

Tomorrow please God- the clean up and extensive mop-up of certain communities continues especially in Tobago which was worse hit. In the meantime Government officials have requested that Motorists who don't need to be on the roads- Stay off the nations highways and roads as heavy duty equipment and personnel do the necessary cleanup works post Tropical storm Karen.
Keep safe everyone.... thoughts and prayers are with those who were most affected by Karen today including those islands being threatened soon by storm conditions.

As dawn has arrived the sure signs of a tropical weather system are evident- not only the inclement weather, but the very unusual movement of over head moisture-laden clouds from West to east. This is not something that's seen too often especially in the more Southern islands.

As the center moves past Tobago more intense bands are likely to affect Trinidad.

It's a wait and see situation Re: Trinidad as we watch and pray. Keeping Tobago especially in mind at this time as well.

More watches are about to be issued for the Lesser Antilles islands due to recently formed tropical storm Karen. Of course, Trinidad and Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies are under a tropical storm warning being in the direct line of fire of this system.

However, further watches for the remainder of the windward islands may be necessary apart from just St. Vincent and the Grenadines at this point...

The first advisory on the system had this to say:- "Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:Tropical storm conditions are 

expected to first reach those

islands within the warning area 

later this morning and afternoon,

making outside preparations difficult

or dangerous."

Hopefully these winds will not become too strong in Trinidad since we are on the 'weaker' southern part of the system. However, the developing feeder bands of the system are presently affecting the South western and Easternmost part of Trinidad. Wishing the best to Tobago which will get the brunt of Karen first.

Keep alert and safe throughout this storm TnT.

Not surprisingly Tropical storm Karen has formed. It's really getting its act together as organisation of the system has increased greatly over the last few hours... Fortunately, it's not a strong tropical storm as yet. As successive rain bands from the system continue to wrap around its core more rainfall of a moderate intensity for now continues to soak my area. Winds are likely to pick up a bit later as the centre nears the Trinidad and Tobago location before crossing into the Caribbean sea.

So far only St. Vincent and the Grenadines seem to have watched issued -I expect that to change soon.

Let hope that it does not strengthen too much while it's still spinning on top of our islands. TnT keep safe and stay alert.

I think the following bulletins and public advisories for 99L speak for themselves, although as mentioned at some point by our hurricane correspondents out of Dominica- the use of the potential tropical cyclone classifications and warnings do serve as the best way to sensitize and sufficiently alert populations which are most likely to be impacted by intensifying systems with imminent impact being likely.

Note (TnT weather center alert): The Southern and Central Windwards are forecast to be affected by this strong tropical wave, with most impacts across the Southern and Central Windwards. This area includes Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada, and its dependencies, and Trinidad and Tobago.

As mentioned by different sites and weather competencies, regardless of development, this system will be a heavy rainfall threat above all else...

All models, the EMCWF (European), GFS (US), UKMET (UK), ICON (German), ARPEGE (French) and CMC (Canadian) bring heavy rainfall and winds between 40-55 KM/H and gusts in excess of 65 KM/H to Trinidad, Tobago and to the remainder of the Southern Windwards, particularly on Sunday into Monday. Initial Impacts are possible from early Sunday morning.

As a result the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued the Adverse Weather Alert (Yellow Level) as an active tropical wave with medium chances of development nears Trinidad & Tobago and the Southern Windwards. The alert goes into effect from 6:00 AM Sunday 22nd September 2019 through 8:00 PM Monday 23rd September 2019. 

This is forecast to be a medium to high impact event, with 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 millimeters) with isolated totals up to 6 inches (150 millimeters) are possible across the Southern Windwards. There is an elevated threat of street flooding, flash flooding and riverine flooding next week. Rough seas with waves between 2.5 meters and 4.5 meters are possible in open waters east of T&T on Sunday into Monday, with battering swells along the Atlantic Coasts which could cause coastal flooding (surge). Gusty winds in excess of 65 KM/H are expected across both islands. -Be prepared everyone and let's be as proactive as possible this time... The time tested motto is worth recalling- Be prepared for the worst, but pray and hope for the best. However the bottom line is preparation...
God be with our Southern isles & the rest of the Caribbean come what may.

Unfortunately, it may not be surprising to see a track & intensity for Dorian similar to that of Hurricane Emily in 2005 or even Tomas in 2010. The 'Lesser Antilles rule' seems to have definitely kicked in at this time. Interestingly though TnT was affected by both of the above systems. So at this point all of the southern isles should be on alert. And Dorian's wind field may also be wider than suggested. In fact, we are already receiving a stiff North to North North East breeze in the environs of Woodbrook, Port of Spain. 

Satellite images seem to show the outer banding of the system extending to the Guyana region. Let's all be prepared & pray & trust that our region and especially the southern Caribbean is spared the worst.

With the system less than 48hrs from impact I think the following excerpt from a recent NHC advisory is a bit sobering:-

DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 50.4W

It's current latitude is still troubling for the more southern islands like ourselves in TnT...

Hopefully, it will take that forecasted jog to the north, however, a more northerly course will be detrimental to our neighbouring windward islands north of us. However, given the likes of tropical storm Don's (2017) defiant westerly movement prior to its dissipation, and that of tropical storm Kirk in 2018, as well as the infamous Hurricane Ivan track back in 2004; developing systems such as Dorian cannot be watched too closely as they approach the island chain. 

& the potential for further intensification is there as noted by Michael's reference out of Dominica to the 'Lesser Antilles rule.' Of course, the weaker Dorian remains the greater its chances of heading in a more westerly direction. Perhaps its center could end up going over the St. Lucia/ St. Vincent area given some of the latest predictions from the weather models. In Time we shall see what happens...

No matter what, don't be complacent- Be prepared as Always this hurricane season.

99L may in fact be the first serious tropical threat to the Lesser Antilles for the 2019 hurricane season.

We'll have to see what happens as it draws nearer, however at it's current latitude we in Trinidad and Tobago may still need to remain vigilant for possible impacts from this approaching tropical system. Of course, now is a good time to review our hurricane preparedness tips in the islands.

Let's be as prepared as possible- come what may, & May God Bless our islands.

The respective regional corporations have been activated and are assisting affected families especially in the communities of 

Pic­ton, Pe­nal, Debe, San Francique and Bar­rack­pore. We're all hoping that these unexpected storms associated with the adverse weather conditions from the passage of recent tropical waves are not an omen of anything worse to come.

Keep safe & Take good care this season everyone.

I was awoken by rain showers and light wind gusts coming from 'the wrong direction'... It looks like some convective build up most likely connected to the fringes of 96L are affecting us from the West in the region of the Gulf of Paria and Venezuela. (Its very unusual to have showers and sustained winds coming from that direction).

Yesterday's showers which were forecast with the approach of 96L through the island chain also brought some flooding to a few of the same areas affected by the tail effects of 95L last Monday. So I'm sure this morning's squalls are not all that welcome. 

Thankfully 96L was not enhanced too much in convective build up & intensity of its development & convergence. Had the usual quick intensification caused by the 'Lesser Antilles rule,' which has amply occured in the past taken place as expected - 96L would have been much worse for most of the islands with relatively very little warning time. It was a blessing that the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (cckw) feature was having a negative effect on atlantic tropical cyclone development.

However, I think the concerns of Michael in Dominica are quite valid since there will be certain systems which do not ultimately get named by the NHC for sometimes very technical reasons but, which are nevertheless capable of causing severe and adverse impacts to respective citizens. The special potential cyclone advisories definitely aid in greater public preparedness and sustained vigilance. & indeed, the NHC's rationale of under- classifying & non-designation of some Atlantic systems needs to be more closely looked at.

I hope and pray that the impacts of now downgraded 96L will be minimal enough in the islands to our north.

God's Blessings to all of our islands!

Having had a bit of the sting of the
Tail of 95L here in TnT over the start of this week impacting parts of the East-West corridor region, which were hardest hit by the brief flooding. Major roads along the corridor then were flooded or rendered near impassable at times. Namely, the Priority Bus Route, the Eastern Main Road, and the Churchill Roosevelt Highway were all at one point underwater. This was an additional 'wake up call' yet again as this year's hurricane season advances.

We are now coming to the very heart of the season during a weak El Nino year. & It will be interesting to see how the models fare out with the upcoming systems especially Re: 96L. So far the Euro has definitely been the most reliable, of course. That being said the Northern Leewards certainly need to look out for upcoming impacts early next week from a moderate to strong Tropical system and possibly even a hurricane...

Islands as far south as Martinique may need to be vigilant.

Be safe this season all, God Bless!