- - Trinidad & Tobago - -

This needs a good look and analysis.

Trying to say, I'm busy.

But I will be able to do so after 4:00pm. today.

My daughter returned home three weeks ago.

This TW 'Blob' appeared out of nowhere.

While the former mid-Atlantic Depression 

dispersed north of the Eastern Caribbean.

My early take?

It's grandiose and resembles 'Bonnie' in its early stage.

It's due West on West.

It's Ominous.

Complacency Kills

of the increased role of the Private Sector 

in the continuation of T&T Development.

Please God! No more tribal drums. 

Sorry! Pressed the wrong button.

The TW/LPS is over the southern Windwards now.

Nothing Emergency Personnel cannot handle.

It dipped 'REALLY' South, ....

My take is;

It's going to 'crash' into Latin-America at some point.

It's moving really fast. No time to build up.

Stay away from rivers.

God Thanks

I have three rotten tyres on the vehicle to fix this morning. 

So! Just a short Post.

There is 'Nascent' Circulation at 40 West.

The most Important Hazard Prevention Point, at this moment?

The 'History' of 2022 LPs are, 'Due West on West' !!!!

God Bless

Are affecting Barbados right now. The axis will go through,

Grenada and St. Vincent late tonight, more tomorrow.

But, the 'Blob' stretches from St. Lucia to south Trinidad, ....

It took a dip 'South'. Was Heading for Dominica.

God Bless

This is normal weather.

This is normal heat and pressure.

This 'Blob' has NO Circulation.

However !!!

Having that Generalisation in mind.

And 

Knowing it's going to end soon.

Based on the Landfall of what became 'Bonnie'.

The Nariva area cannot recover properly.

Based on all satellite images so far.

A guesstimate is a more MEDIUM-TERM  AMELIORATION.

For the Easern Caribbean, ...

The Pressure Gradient for the Northward Swing of Cyclones.

Has shifted more North. But only Inches, ... !!!

and,

Larger Systems than what Trinidad is having are Due West on West.

Stay Blessed

I'm still very much 'under-the-weather'.

But,

Circulation, (probably High-Level), Circulation 

has started off St. Lucia. At 10:30am. today

it is due East of Martinique. That is the Wave Axis.

My Take:

I see it passing into Martinique, Dominica and 

Guadeloupe this Evening.

The Leewards and Virgin Islands later than that but tonight.

For the Windwards finishing by Sunrise.

Nobody knows what will happen tonight.

But right now, there is NO low-level Circulation.

[Aside]:

Besides stormcarib.com. please Donate to websites that 

have wind, wave and precipitation Data. (Buoys and Marine Crafts).

It's the EARLIEST THING  that saves Lifes. Reduces Insurance.

Going into Port of Spain, eat lunch and go back to sleep.

My daughter is returning within 21 days after more than 5 years.

GOD Bless

There is thunder rolling overhead and lightning discharges in the Gulf.There has been a light shower in Palmiste San Fernando but in certain parts of the island  there are reports of heavy rainfall

Dr Adesh Nanan

We have the Precipitation to deal with now.

For a select few. That's until tomorrow evening.

For the Majority, it's until Thursday night.

An ameuter like me, will guess that's a comfortable 3" inches.

Whether comfortable or not, we came out better than expected.

In order of looking forward to 'restitution and restoration' ?

This ameuter suspects,

Tobago,

South Trinidad,

Grenada,

Toco/Sangre Grande

Chaguanas

(In that order),

Have the most to Report, Post-Mortem and Teamwork with !!!!

I need to pray and take a rest, ...

GOD Bless (No all Clear as Yet!)

to Nariva, to Pt. Lisas, then to 'Down the Islands',

back to Tobago is encompassed in TD winds (>25mph.).

- The north and east coasts are getting battered 

(37mph. winds). Not so much Tobago anymore.

- Grenada had over 3" inches of rain presently.

Please read the images. Our details with time are there.

- Soon-to-be 'Bonnie' made landfall in Nariva Swamp at 

8:25pm. As you can see ? Now for three (03") ins. of rain.

Thank GOD

- The outer bands of the Centre of Circulation

encompass Tobago with barely 25mph. winds.

- Touching Toco with 20mph. winds.

will be North of Guyaguyare.

We are 30 mins away from projected heavy rainfall and winds.At present in Palmiste San Fernando ,there is a slight shower with thunder in the distance.Humidity is very high and a cold wind is blowing.

Dr Adesh Nanan

Get Indoors

Get off the streets

Evacuate if Necessary

It will take a Super, Supernatural Force for 

the Centre of Circulation not to pass directly

over Trinidad & Tobago in 3 - 6 hours.

Tobago is having about 03" inches of rain.

In Jesus Name, Have Mercy !

The entire East Coast of Trinidad has 20mph. winds.

Tobago is covered in 20mph. winds.

Don't let the northern Sector of the LPS fool you.

The Centre of Circulation is still East of Trinidad.

According to the officals, less than 320 kms away.

Finally;

The image below is filtered with winds greater than 25mph.

God Bless

Presently high winds and heavy rainfall...maybe a squall in Palmiste San Fernando

Dr Adesh Nanan

Thanks, Gert !

Thanks, Dave !

Thanks, Fellow Correspondents, ... !

Thanks, Donors ! Thanks, Everyone , ... !

There will be a lot of mangoes on the ground afterwards!

People of  Paradise,

No storm precipitation , ... , but Tobago has 20 mph. 

Depression to-be-Storm Winds.

Grenada you are going to feel the winds.

Stretching a little less than 200 miles in the Northeast Quadrant 

are 30 - 40 mph. winds. Mayaro/Manzanilla has 10 - 15 mph. winds 

but 'storm-precipitation'. 

The smallest 'Hazard' Reality is (T'dad & T'bgo) rain for five (05) days.

As for 1st. Responders, ...

- Their Safety comes First. Respect them. 

They are HIGHLY Trained and Equipped.

- Comply!!! Don't Criticize and Complain.

- a) They have left their family, b) risking their lifes, c) to assist you.

"Don't blame anybody but yourself".

GOD Bless

The twin island republic has begun preparation for the approaching system.

The Disaster Management unit in each of the   14 Regional Corporations in Trinidad are in a heightened state of alert distributing sandbags and opening certain selective  shelters.

Over in Tobago there is a similar sense of urgency.

If this is a dry run, I must give the authorities a thumbs up!

Dr Adesh Nanan

- It's too early and dangerous for a Post-Mortem.

To tell you, "The 1st. System Stalled".

We at stromcarib.com know what that means.

As you know, and as St. Lucia reminded me.

- I can't override the authorities -

It's in the Authorities hands now.

Be alert

and 

GOD Bless Your Preparations, Planning, Praying and Procuring, ...

The welcome 'water' has reached, ...

The 'Trio' have a Collective Climate-Change Feature!!!!

Which means; Old-fashioned Analysis and the Centre of Circulation

mean Nothing. In the SENSE that all 1,500 nautical miles 

of these Systems are 'Traumatic' and Devastating, ... !!!!

The 1st. Centre of Circulation is about 08 North 58.5 West.

[attach: as you can see?]

Along with everything else that we are Not prepared for.

The 'Worstcase Scenario' is it runs off the Guyana and Venezuela Coast

and passes directly over Southwestern Trinidad.

However Southwestern Trinidad has a touch of SAL.

The 'most-reliable' but bankrupt site says,

Trinidad and Tobago will have maximum Impact between 3:00 - 6:00 pm. today.

Just Survive

GOD! Please Bless!

as a Lower Priority.

During Life and Death Traumatic Episodes

the ABC's of Basic Survival. Is the most Important !!!!!!!

A - Airways

B - Breathing

C - Circulation

We are NOT ready

But,

GOD Bless

I usually wait for 40 W. to Post advance Notice.

But,

Due to,

Climate Change Characteristics of the Blobs.

The soon-to-be absence of SAL.

The Presence of formative uncovered Centres of Circulation.

I am posting. Mainly to say, when it comes. (Both of Them).

It will be minimum Depression. Which in this case means 30 mph. winds.

Last! But Not Least! All forecasters say Trinidad will be Impacted in some way !!!!

God Bless

There are two!!!! This is literally the first one !

My take:

This one is less Impactful to the one at 50W.

Because,

- It's in Windshear.

- Barometer and lack of SAL will help the other or next one.

God Bless

All Hands on Deck

Mother Nature has taken away our water supply, well almost.

But replaced it with an abundance of cheap, natural, liquid Produce.

The Harvest is Plentiful.

And if we observe the agricultural side to Corpus Christi's Timing.

The seeds as well as the soil are Ripe for Planting, ...

That's the good side to Precipitation and Wind.

Now for the Hazardous Side?

North West Trinidad has had what I will call, "Non-Stop",

four (04) hours of rain at time of posting. My Projections are?

Over one (01") inch of rain in 24 hours.

Breeze picking up late tomorrow. Not bad for now.

Hazardous Weather (be careful of Rivers), for 3 - 4 days.

Paths Greatest Intensity, ... , Barbados and St. Lucia.

It's no longer "Be Prepared!". 

It's, Help the less Fortunate Prepare,

Be Strong

Glencoe, Carenage,

D'go M'rtn, St. George (West)

2022-05-25th.

"Do we know? What causes a Hurricane?"

It surely isn't. Because of Africa and Primitive Habitats.

Apparently it's because,

In the Tropical Zone, everyone knows of 'Refreshing NorthEast Trades'.

Underknown is,

1) It flows westwards because of 'Rotation'.

2) In the South (Primitive?) it flows Eastwards.

(It counteracts the North and flows from Southwest).

3) The South (and North) flows to replace Warm Air.

Therefore, in a Circle.

"Stop the Heat and PRESSURE, and there is no Cyclone".

God Bless

I don't know.

But,

It seems from the past recent occasions.

Tropical Waves can now form. Affecting and Including Trinidad.

As the Image shows it's more like a Standard Trough or Troughs.

The Barometer Reading for Tropical Eastern Caribbean Waves,

runs through South Western Trinidad.

Enjoy it, while it lasts.

GOD Bless