Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Matthew | Nicole | Otto | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (18:15 UTC, 44 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

97L Invest:

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I wish it was not necessary but I am in need for donations... We are very lucky to have a slow hurricane season so far. This means less traffic to my website, resulting in less advertising income. However, my costs are still about the same... The donations I have received so far this year (thank you!) are by far not enough to make up for it. So, please support this unique website by visiting the donations webpage. Any amount helps! Thank you so much! -Gert

Sunday, September 25, 2016 11:31AM PDT - Future Matthew
New invest 97L, still about 1500 miles east of us, could pose a significant threat for the islands. Conditions are pretty good for it to become a tropical storm or even hurricane before it reaches the islands on Wednesday. As can be seen on the spaghetti-model plots above and schematic below the forecasted track takes it quite far south, and might even pass pretty close to the South America. We will have to keep a very close eye on this one in the next few days... -Gert

Friday, September 23, 2016 13:14PM PDT - Bermuda
The center of tropical Storm Karl is expected to pass to the east of Bermuda within 90 miles later today and tomorrow. A lot closer than it seemed like a day or so ago. Luckily it is 'just' a tropical storm, although it looks pretty ominous (see picture below, a screen shot from the Closest Point of Approach tool). Tropical storm winds extend outward up to 115 miles, so within reach of the island. Luckily Bermuda is usually very well prepared, and houses are very well built, so I don't expect too many problems. Lots of rain, some wind, maybe a tornado, and big surf is what the advisories tell us. Stay safe Bermuda, don't do anything stupid when the storm passes over... Gert

Update 1:55PM: The new advisories show that Karl's center will now get as close as 70 miles to Bermuda (in about 13 hours). So the turn towards the east is occuring a bit later and the forecasted track is trending westward (closer to Bermuda) with each advisory... Also, Karl is slowly strenthening, it is a strong tropical storm and could become a hurricane within 24 hours while Karl is moving by Bermuda. The outer bands are already over Bermuda.

Thursday, September 22, 2016 14:54PM EDT - Hostile Atlantic

Good afternoon,

So far this hurricane season we have seen numerous waves make the attempt to scale the tropical disturbance ladder from Invest, to TD, to TS and finally Hurricane. Even with warm and hospitable SST's, the combination of dry air, Saharan Dust and wind shear have all but evaporated their chances at hurricane stardom so far this year. Most have had decent chances according to the models and forecast projections but the dry air and windshear have been seriously underestimated, especially by the computer models.

So, now we have TS Lisa headed out NNE into the Central Atlantic; a lonely wanderer destined to wander soon no more as conditions will deteriorate rapidly against her and she will just become a remnant nuisance to the Azores.

TS Karl has had his share of battles as well and it continues, especially against the wind shear. If he can hold on, and win the battle, he just might make it to the pinnacle as a cat 1 hurricane but that is expected to be brief, if he does. TS watches are up for Bermuda as Karl keeps getting nudged farther to the east in the "cone' and could have some TS impacts within 48 hours which is like swatting a mosquito to Bermudians. Here in the Virgin Islands, Karl has sucked the air out of the atmosphere and the seas are glassy with little to no breeze and a shower or two passing by under mostly sunny and hot skies. You could almost skip a stone from Redhook to St. John!

Long term models hint at a possible disturbance in the GOM next week and has possibilities.

Off to our east is a wave that just splashed off the African coast and could be an interesting and possible major player down the road but given the history so far this year, only time will surely tell. However, it has splashed at a low latitude and is moving west and is expected to continue this trek. Being so close to the equator, it has no chance of spinning up at the moment so it will take some time to escape that grip and gain some latitude plus get into a more favorable environment. But if it does, someplace is gonna get an unwelcome visitor.

Dave 


... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands have increased and become slightly better organized since
yesterday.  Environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Interests in the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South
America, should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of
development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to
tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity has redeveloped in association with the remnants of
Lisa, located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores.  This system
is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before
regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over northeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Dominica [Sep 26 10:21]
- Nevis [Sep 26 9:11]
- St.Lucia [Sep 26 8:18]
- Grenada [Sep 26 7:25]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 26 5:59]
- Curaçao [Sep 25 23:32]
- St.Croix [Sep 25 22:30]
- Antigua [Sep 25 14:44]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 25 12:28]
- Bermuda [Sep 23 23:11]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 22 20:09]
- Barbados [Sep 22 15:54]
- St.Kitts [Sep 19 7:28]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 11 19:51]
- Florida Keys [Sep 6 17:03]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 20:58]
- St.Thomas [Sep 5 16:59]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 5 11:55]
- Montserrat [Sep 4 18:35]
- St.John [Sep 2 10:22]
- Saba [Sep 1 7:56]
- Culebra (PR) [Sep 1 6:36]
- Bonaire [Aug 28 15:10]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 27 11:04]
- Anguilla [Aug 26 14:48]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 25 10:52]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 20 16:57]
- Haiti [Aug 20 6:36]
- Belize [Aug 7 10:43]
- Jamaica [Aug 1 6:44]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert