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- Always stay Vigilant folks... 2024
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2024 21:05:52 -0400
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Pun intended -I think that Hurricane Oscar seems to be quite the epitomy of 'Oscar material'... I believe it truly out performed itself... Or at least the expectations of the generally conservative NHC. From a mere invest with low chances at that to a Tropical Storm and then a minimal hurricane - all in less than 12hrs... Hmmm 2024 is certainly not leaving anyone with a dull moment for now- meteorologically- at least.
& I pray & trust that the folks in the Turks and Caicos and South East Bahamas will fare well with this small Hurricane impact.
& Below is a great point raised by a Met Official:- 'Oscar developing into a hurricane when almost every model didn't even depict - or initialize with - a tropical depression is a spectacular model failure incredibly rare in the modern era, but most importantly shows the limitations in overly relying on models without sufficient in-situ observations.' (Torner Burg)
Stay safe folks. God Bless! |
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- Always stay Vigilant folks... 2024
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2024 18:28:25 -0400
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Pun intended -I think Hurricane Oscar seems to be quite the epitomy of Oscar material... I believe it truly out performed itself... Or at least the expectations of the generally conservative NHC. From a mere invest with low chances at that to a Tropical Storm and then strengthening to a minimal hurricane - all in less than 12hrs... Hmmm 2014 is certainly not leaving anyone with a dull moment for now- meteorologically- at least.
& I trust that the folks in the Turks and Caicos and South East Bahamas will fare well with this small Hurricane impact.
Stay safe folks. God Bless! |
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- Thoughts and Prayers go out to those in Florida and Environs...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2024 12:21:51 -0400
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It has truly been shocking to witness such Unbelievable and Unprecedented Intensification rates with Hurricane Milton C/O Climate Change and Global warming ('boiling')... It's Now the 2nd Category Five Monster Hurricane of the 2024 Hurricane Season. This season seems to have unfortunately definitely made up for the Lull in activity earlier in the previous month.
Hurricane Milton is now a Category Five Monster. & Thoughts and Prayers go out to those in the Yucatan peninsula, and of course, to those in Florida who are in the Path of this impending Catastrophic Hurricane.
Praying and trusting that All persons in harm's way will heed evacuation orders. The adage which says:- 'Always Prepare for the worst and yet Hope for the Best'- remains perpetually true.
Precaution is truly always better than cure... & Material things can be replaced, But sadly Lives Cannot be replaced. Praying and trusting for the very best outcome from an anticipated landfall from this Monster Hurricane.🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾 |
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- At the Peak of the Season...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 11 Sep 2024 12:57:34 -0400
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Well, the Tropical Atlantic to our East certainly bears watching at this time. With both 92L & recently designated 94L marching onwards it remains to be seen how much advantage they may take of currently favourable tropical conditions before things may become less conducive. The Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica continues to be as lush and Green as ever. Praying and hoping that the last few wet systems which have affected the islands are not a type of precursor event, or harbinger of a more potent cyclonic system to come through the Lesser Antilles islands.
Stay Vigilant and prepared folks. God Bless!
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- Ernesto's Easy Empathy...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 13 Aug 2024 21:30:58 -0400
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Well, we are once again breathing a deep sigh of relief, knowing that it could have been so much worse. Thankfully Ernesto went easy on us for the most part, & although its center went just north of us through the Guadeloupe channel it was not too impactful overall.
Glad that it eventually curved more West North Westerly- after going basically West for some time. Thoughts and Prayers go out to those in the VI Who are in it's direct path.
For us All night into the early morning hours of Tuesday we were having periods of moderate to heavy rains & occasional thundershowers. The utilities held up well island-wide, however some broadband service seemed to be compromised. Fortunately, the winds mostly stayed below tropical storm force although there were some intense bands and squalls mixed in by the morning.
& For the Most part motorists wisely stayed off the roads during the worst of Ernesto's impacts. Some minor areas of flooding resulted and of course the surf is still churning etc. Seas along the West Coast of the Nature Isle should subside enough by the morning for the regular Island ferries to resume service etc.
*& I trust that Dave & Gert are faring fine...
Stay safe folks. God Bless! |
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- Ernesto's extirpate?...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2024 17:26:37 -0400
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Well, we finally have Tropical Storm Ernesto designated at 5p.m. by the NHC as was anticipated. Located at just roughly 250 miles to our east in Dominica, and moving slightly north of due West likely means a rough night Weather-wise into the early morning hours most probably.
So far today has been the proverbial calm before... There have been lots of showers- some of which were moderate to heavy at times. This is another 'wet' system to be sure. However, just how copious it's showers will be here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica remains to be seen. Hopefully, squalls and gusts should not be too bad overall.
Although I expect tropical Storm conditions at various locations across the island (if not island-wide) -it still remains to be seen just how impactful Ernesto's winds and Rains may end up being as it strengthens while approaching the Lesser Antilles islands (aka -The "Lesser Antilles rule"). Again a Tropical Storm watch at the Very least- would have been the preferred national advisory for the island at this time. Better safe than sorry folks. Praying and trusting that our islanders have not taken this one too lightly. A Flash Flood warning and other adverse weather alerts should go into effect from 6p.m.
Stay safe everyone. God Bless!
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- Delayed Advisory Issuance???
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2024 08:04:00 -0400
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With the Clearly More Westerly direction this morning of PTC 5 (Pre-Tropical Storm Ernesto), we in the island of Dominica, which is located just South of Guadeloupe should definitely be placed on a Tropical Storm watch at the very least. As a matter of fact, the track of PTC 5 appears to be trending a bit more Southward now on the projected model runs, and Likely Trajectory through the Lesser Antilles. Watches will need to include Dominica & also Martinique at this rate given the aforementioned -and may be required in the next advisory.
I'm trusting that the relevant authorities will Not be typically ultra- reactive & rather last minute in making this critical determination. Advisories:- watches and warnings do make the difference in lives potentially lost and Saved... That anticipated WNW 'turn'- given the system's current delayed consolidation & stacking may Not really materialize as much as some of the weather models have been showing, & is increasingly unrealistic.
Of course, a more organized System would have more easily already begun a sharp enough west-northwesterly turn, which unfortunately has not occurred up to this point. Fingers crossed. Remember- it only takes one...
Be Prepared and remain Vigilant folks! God Bless! |
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- Olympic Gold- Cyclogenesis & More...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Sun, 4 Aug 2024 03:34:46 -0400
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Well with All that has been going on in the sporting Olympic World especially with our Caribbean athletes it has been tempting to forget to Keep all eyes eastwards Re: the Tropical Atlantic.
Firstly, CONGRATS To our Very own Thea Lafond (Gadson) who has made a Historic achievement in proudly getting our Very 1st Olympic Gold in the Triple jump for our Island- the Commonwealth of Dominica!🇩🇲🇩🇲🇩🇲
Three Cheers and All thanks be to God!!! See a few article Links below:- (Also, similarly Congrats to our sister Isle of St. Lucia-1st Gold- Re: Alfred's Victory) -Lately with the passage of the very large and wet Tropical wave # 26, which became PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) 4 shortly after passing through the Lesser Antilles, & now has become Tropical Storm Debby near Florida- Comes Tropical wave # 27 right after.
This wave certainly bears watching for Cyclogenesis as it nears our Windward islands. We in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean will certainly be watching its progress & potential development. It may intensify as it nears the islands (aka*The Lesser Antilles rule) similar to what the notorious Beryl did. Time will certainly tell...
Stay safe & Prepared as always folks. (It only takes One..) One Caribbean Love & God Bless! |
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- Beryl the Beast...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 2 Jul 2024 05:45:56 -0400
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Hurricane Beryl attaining Category 5 Strength at this time of the Year in the Caribbean- being so early in the Hurricane season is just mind blowing... And with the bulk of the Season still ahead this is a serious Omen for the Caribbean region indeed it is also a critical reminder that it Only takes just one Storm to make it a terrible season. Indeed, the Fact that we're getting something to that Catastrophic level this early- just cannot be understated.
& Of course, as a result the Swells from Beryl on the Western- Caribbean shores of the Lesser Antilles islands have been really surging overnight. With it's extreme to Catastrophic impacts over much of the Southern Caribbean islands like the Grenadines, St. Vincent and Grenada -This Hurricane is definitely one for the Record Books!
We are Caribbean Strong! God Bless us All! |
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- Beryl's Bashing...
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- By Conan Shillingford <conanshillingford4 at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 15:35:43 -0400
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Indeed, it has been so sad to see the damage caused by Beryl in the Grenadines, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Tobago and Grenada. Let us All do our part Re: aid recovery and relief for our brothers and sisters who have been affected.
Today we have had ongoing squall bands from Beryl, which certainly picked up into the afternoon time to the surprise of many. Appropriately, there has been a Flash Flood warning issued. Praying and trusting that no significant flooding issues will occur.
Take good care. And stay safe everyone. God Bless! |
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- Brunt of Beryl... Post Premature Cancellation by Govt
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 13:44:48 -0400
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Well the Cancellation of the Tropical storm Watch for Dominica earlier today by the Government authorities was really Premature, and imprudent given the fact that the core of then steadily Intensifying Hurricane Beryl had not yet crossed into the Caribbean sea by the 11a.m advisory. In fact, as I'd mentioned a Tropical Storm Warning should have been issued for the island.
Hence, As expected the more intense feeder bands from the Hurricane have been steadily spiralling towards the Nature Island area, and we are now having true Tropical storm conditions Island wide. Apparently winds have been frequently gusting and a bit stronger in the southern areas of the island, which is of course closer to the core center of Beryl. Whereas areas more to the North of the island have not had too many strong gale force gusts in squalls caused by Beryl's feeder bands.
As I posted earlier these storm conditions should continue into the evening time. Let's hope and pray that the area of disturbed weather termed as invest (96L) in the Atlantic does not undergo rapid intensification as it nears our islands similar to how Beryl did.
It's heartbreaking to see that Beryl underwent an additional period of intensification before Crossing the Grenadine islands. Beryl was just 6 mph shy of being a Category 5 which is mind blowing. Reports of devastation are coming in from Grenada, SVG islands, Barbados, Tobago and St. Lucia. Let's All rally to help our Sister islands in their time of need & recovery.
Please Stay safe everyone. Blessings to All! |
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- Beryl's Bountiful rains...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 07:00:21 -0400
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As can be expected most streams and rivers are elevated at this point. & As the day progresses with multiple bands from Hurricane Beryl anticipated, it likely that many of our rivers will reach threshold levels and full capacity. Vigilance is required.
We are All praying and trusting that persons residing in flood prone areas take all the necessary precautions and the like. & Also Hoping that our Sister isles to our South have done adequate preparation and stocking up on essential items.
Stay safe everyone. God Bless! |
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- Brutish Beryl...still barreling Westward
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 03:50:08 -0400
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So far rain- wise Beryl has been giving us a dousing here in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica. It will be interesting to see how much our River levels on the Leeward side of the island may have pushed up by morning light. Of course, Peripheral and feeder bands are expected to continue into Monday evening. We're thankful though that so far we have had nothing much to report. Winds have remained generally under 20 knots, and seas are only slightly agitated. However, the thunderstorm activity has picked up after midnight here.
I suspect that later on Monday morning into the afternoon that mild wind factor may begin to change for the worst including the West Coast sea state once the centre of Hurricane Beryl crosses into the Caribbean sea.
Stay safe folks especially those in the Southern Windward islands where the worst conditions are anticipated by Late Monday morning into the afternoon. The 'Lesser Antilles rule' could further enhance the strength of the Hurricane post -Eye wall replacement cycle, and a slightly slower forward speed could be more consequential Re: the severity of impacts. Time will tell...
Blessings to All! |
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- Bad Beryl...
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- By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Jul 2024 00:27:57 -0400
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Well Sunday's weather gave us on and off shower activity with the occasional breeze in the Nature Isle. Although, the weather actually held up enough on Sunday morning to allow some Parishes to Celebrate the Feast of St. Peter & Paul (a type of Feté Mariné) in Honour of our Fishermen. The West Coast community of Colihaut was one such example.
With the sun initially peeking through and then radiating brightly-a Lively Street procession complete with a band and conch shell went through the streets led by the Priest & altar Servers. The Parish Priest even ventured to Bless the Sea and lay a wreath in remembrance of those who were lost at sea after the Mass. Kudos to St. Peter's Parish community for really keeping the Original St. Peter's celebration & tradition alive!
Well, immediately after the festivities boats were hauled in quickly as the rains picked up once again & the necessary precautions were taken in light of the coming storm. Now with every passing hour as Beryl inches nearer to the Southern Island chain the rain and feeder band activity are unfortunately set to pick up even more here in the Northern Windward isles and Leewards.
Occasional Tropical storm conditions are expected within about a couple hours here in Dominica -according to the French radar estimates as some feeder bands move through. Of course, the East Coast will be affected first and then the rest of the island. It would be a prudent move by the authorities to perhaps upgrade our Tropical Storm watch to a Warning. Time will tell... Work tomorrow anyone? Hmmm Thankfully schools are already closed.
Stay safe everyone. & Thoughts and Prayers go out to the islands to our South. God Bless! |
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- Bracing for Hurricane Beryl...?
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- By Conan Shillingford <conanshillingford4 at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 29 Jun 2024 08:04:50 -0400
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Well how quickly the 'Tropical tides' can change... I think the unprecedented formation & anticipated rapid intensification of Tropical storm Beryl particularly in the Main development region of the Atlantic is a major warning bell for any persons who were still skeptical as to the veracity of the hyper- active prediction issued by the CSU/ NHC for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Moreover, what's likely to 'soon' be Chris and Debby etc. from the multiple areas of future interest & investigation (invests) -given the well anticipated Tropical Atlantic wave train etc. -are a rude awakening for all those who were perhaps imprudently questioning this hyper-active forecasted Hurricane season.
We are already seeing conditions much more typical of August than the actual end of June- into early July period. Thus, We can only do our very best in the islands at ensuring our finest resilience and mitigation practices are at play, & Of course; let us All continue to watch & Pray.
No doubt, We are all training our eyes eastwards to Beryl & company with a rare 'back to back' impact from two Atlantic tropical systems expected in the Lesser Antilles chain in the coming week. & With rapid intensification expected from Beryl it's too soon to speculate just how much impact- soon to be- 'Hurricane Beryl' could have in the Lesser Antilles in roughly 24-36 hrs time. One thing seems sure that All of the Windwards islands -including even some of the Southern Leewards need to take this System very seriously as peripheral impacts from Beryl are very likely especially if it's wind field etc. expands.
So far conditions have been super moist in most of the Lesser Antilles given the train of tropical waves which have made it through the islands over the last few weeks. Here in the Nature island of the Caribbean, Dominica, which is typically very green from coast to coast; we are undoubtedly extremely lush Island wide.
The excessive humidity and heat period from late April into most of May is largely a distant memory, however, with such Tropical cyclonic activity looming and forecasted for the islands- I do believe that one would definitely choose some unsettling heat over damaging Cyclonic impacts and the like. Nonetheless, this is the reality & dire consequence of the era of Accelerated Human caused Global warming & Climate change.
Currently the precipitation from Tropical wave number 15 is serving as a tropical predecessor event for Beryl in the islands. Likely a harbinger of things to come and a precursor for what's unfortunately billed to be a historic Atlantic Hurricane season.
I'll update some more by Sunday night God's Willing- if warranted, as conditions are expected to begin deteriorating then- with Beryl making it's closest approach thru the islands south of the Nature Isle, Dominica, if the forecasted track holds.
In the meantime I'm trusting that folks will maximize the opportunity for Sunday Mass & Worship etc. at Churches tomorrow morning as we implore God's Mercies, Protection & safety for our Caribbean people. With God All things are possible in Jesus' Mighty Name. (Matt 19:26), & Of course, God helps those who Help themselves...
Thoughts and Prayers go out to our Sister islands to our South. Continue to stay Vigilant and well Prepared folks. We are Caribbean strong! God Bless! |
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