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- Goodbye and Thank you!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Nov 2015 21:06:01 -0400
Dear friends of stormcarib 
near and far, this day ends the official hurricane season. I will not be 
posting until the beginning of the next. God willing I will be fit enough to 
keep posting and sending photos. I have received great comments about both. 
Feel free to write to me if you wish. Have a wonderful, happy, peaceful 
Christmas or whatever you celebrate, and may the new year 2016 be a kind one. 
Thank you very much Gert! May God bless us all. Be safe!

Isabel

p.s.

You might have heard of a newborn baby boy which was abandoned in a church in 
Queens, NY. He was found in the Nativity Scene which was being set up. It was 
during a break that the woman left the child there. It has made quite a 
Christmas story! My son who is the secretary has been interviewed countless 
times. People are calling from as far as Hawaii and Brazil to adopt the baby. 
Probably YouTube would have the story. Sorry I don't have the link handy. 



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- Good bye and Thank you....
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Nov 2015 22:33:11 -0400
To Gert for providing the site, to all who read the posts, "loved" the photos, 
and wrote wonderful comments, thank you! I will no longer post until June 1, 
2016, however, if something big happens I will update. Stay well, enjoy one day 
at a time, most of all, stay sober and alert to welcome the Messiah. May God 
bless us all.  Very best wishes,

Isabel

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- Good bye and Thank you...
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Nov 2015 22:06:42 -0500
To Gert for this great website, to all who read the posts, and  "loved" the photos, thank you. I wish you all the best of health and happiness as we enter a time of expectation all around. So many events happening, so much pain like our two friends hospitalized with Aneurysms, but in the midst there is always tremendous joy, like the newborn baby boy found in my son's parish in Queens, NY, in the Nativity which was being prepared for the season. During a break a woman entered with the baby and left him there. It made such news as if Baby Jesus Himself was the one. My son was interviewed many times and many people called from as far as Hawaii and Brazil to adopt the little one. Just today PEOPLE Magazine asked for an interview, as well as a Brazilian newspaper GLOBO. It goes on and on. He'll tell us all about it in person when he comes to spend a week with us us at Christmas. This is the third Good bye post I've written this evening. This one is without a photo because I'm writing on the computer. The others did not seem to go out, but I notice one got through, maybe the other will also. It seems so terribly slow. If you do not receive the second one, a different photo, I will send only the photo. I think you'll like it. Stay well and enjoy one day at a time. May God bless us all.      Isabel
 




 

 

 
 

- Goodbye and Thank you!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Nov 2015 21:06:01 -0400
Dear friends of stormcarib 
near and far, this day ends the official hurricane season. I will not be 
posting until the beginning of the next. God willing I will be fit enough to 
keep posting and sending photos. I have received great comments about both. 
Feel free to write to me if you wish. Have a wonderful, happy, peaceful 
Christmas or whatever you celebrate, and may the new year 2016 be a kind one. 
Thank you very much Gert! May God bless us all. Be safe!

Isabel

p.s.

You might have heard of a newborn baby boy which was abandoned in a church in 
Queens, NY. He was found in the Nativity Scene which was being set up. It was 
during a break that the woman left the child there. It has made quite a 
Christmas story! My son who is the secretary has been interviewed countless 
times. People are calling from as far as Hawaii and Brazil to adopt the baby. 
Probably YouTube would have the story. Sorry I don't have the link handy. 



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Sent from my iPhone

- Stormy Conditions
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 28 Nov 2015 18:08:31 -0400
Good evening! The photo tells it all. This morning we had torrential rain, with 
passing showers other times, a thunderstorm this afternoon, and so on. 
According to NOAA Weather Radio these conditions are going to continue through 
the night to Sunday morning. As I write there's another heavy downpour. I hope 
the visitors are able to get a good amount of sunshine during their stay. Have 
a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Change of Weather
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 27 Nov 2015 23:19:57 -0400
Good night, All!

The Folks of Old used say that when the moon has a large ring around it, like 
tonight, a change of weather was imminent. In fact, Weather Underground has 
drenching rain in the forecast, but not necessary to call for a Flash Flood 
Watch. They are still watching it. The day was mostly sunny as in the photos of 
the Wharf area this morning. One day at a time. May God, our Heavenly Father, 
bless us all.

Isabel


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- A Great Day
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 24 Nov 2015 19:16:03 -0400
Yes and No. My husband has to part with his beloved old vehicle and it's tough. 
Otherwise, the day was a blessing in itself. Weather was perfect. Gardening is 
s breeze, with the soft soil due to all the passing showers. The breeze is 
delightful. We have lots of "thanks" for Thanksgiving Day and beyond. Hope you 
do to. May God bless us all.

Isabel  

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- Beautiful Mixed Weather Bag
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 21 Nov 2015 20:55:34 -0400
Hello, out there, near and far! It's almost the end of the official Hurricane 
Season. In the meanwhile we can be grateful that we were not hit by several 
super storms as some places have been. Our weather is currently very pleasant. 
Because of the moisture in the surroundings with a brief passing shower at any 
moment, the air feels somewhat like air conditioning on our hill. Very 
pleasant! And everything is blooming!
May God bless us all.
 
Isabel


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- After a Stormy Night...
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2015 12:36:53 -0400
The gift of another beautiful day! May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- A Showery Sunday
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Nov 2015 22:48:30 -0400
Goodnight, all! My grandson got this rainbow for his 16th birthday first thing 
this morning. My granddaughter took the picture. This entire week is going to 
be wetter than the last. We are grateful that we can have both sunshine and 
rain. It can pour and the next minute the sky is blue! Hope you all had a 
wonderful day. Remember, we only live one day at a time in our journey Home. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- November Clouds
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 11 Nov 2015 22:00:44 -0400
It has been an interesting ending, soon to be, of the Hurricane season; but is 
it really ending soon? I see a huge TW coming off the coast of Africa. At this 
time of year those waves are not a common sight anymore. However, Climate 
Change has changed the usual way of things. We can no longer say what applied 
last year will apply today. It's a matter of surprise even in Nature and 
weather patterns. So, is it the almost end of the Hurricane Season? Let's hope 
and pray. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- T S KATE !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Nov 2015 21:27:25 -0400
Hello! We got battered by wind and rain by a TW/trough combination over the 
weekend, which became Tropical Storm KATE in the vicinity of the Bahamas! 
Lightning knocked out phone and Broadband Internet here Saturday to Monday 
evening; had some on and off torrential rain of short duration. It was not as 
bad as had been forecasted and expected. There's another big mess on satellite 
imagery but nothing much is expected at least not rain wise. It's very windy 
from time to time and the sea is far from friendly. Hazardous is the word in 
this case. The Hurricane Season could still have some more surprises for us. Be 
well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- T S KATE !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Nov 2015 21:27:25 -0400
Hello! We got battered by wind and rain by a TW/trough combination over the 
weekend, which became Tropical Storm KATE in the vicinity of the Bahamas! 
Lightning knocked out phone and Broadband Internet here Saturday to Monday 
evening; had some on and off torrential rain of short duration. It was not as 
bad as had been forecasted and expected. There's another big mess on satellite 
imagery but nothing much is expected at least not rain wise. It's very windy 
from time to time and the sea is far from friendly. Hazardous is the word in 
this case. The Hurricane Season could still have some more surprises for us. Be 
well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- T S KATE !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Nov 2015 21:27:25 -0400
Hello! We got battered by wind and rain by a TW/trough combination over the 
weekend, which became Tropical Storm KATE in the vicinity of the Bahamas! 
Lightning knocked out phone and Broadband Internet here Saturday to Monday 
evening; had some on and off torrential rain of short duration. It was not as 
bad as had been forecasted and expected. There's another big mess on satellite 
imagery but nothing much is expected at least not rain wise. It's very windy 
from time to time and the sea is far from friendly. Hazardous is the word in 
this case. The Hurricane Season could still have some more surprises for us. Be 
well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Hazardous Weather Outlook
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2015 23:50:29 -0400
Goodnight, All!

It's very quiet at the moment with just the sounds of some tree frogs. They're 
waiting for the rain, the heavier, the better, they get really loud. This 
tropical system is "around the corner"! It has to do work a TW and an Upper 
Level Trough combining forces to produce heavy rains, thunderstorms, high 
winds, some to gale force, flooding, the whole works!
Could be tricky navigating on land or sea tomorrow.  
Trailing moisture could maintain a wet pattern for several days. So, there it 
is! The sunset this evening was announcing the weather ahead, it is said. Be 
prudent and safe if you are local, or if you have hazardous weather wherever 
you are. May God bless us all.

Isabel


Moisture

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- Mixed Up Weather
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 5 Nov 2015 22:32:49 -0500
Good night, All.!   The weather has done everything. Glad for the visitors that they can have spectacular weather in between the suddenly squalls. I read that Canadian air would be spilling out to the Central Atlantic. Perhaps that's why some are feeling chilly. Our weather will continue to do some stunts over the weekend. There is a 90% chance of rain. The forecast from the weekend to the middle of next week is for more rain. I prefer to wait and see. The Rose Way schooner from Boston is back for another season. May it be a great one for them and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- Thunderstorms!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Nov 2015 19:26:22 -0400
Good evening, folks! What a weather!! This was not in the original forecast, it 
would have been worse with the polar trough. These were just passing 
thunderstorms Ii's been  sunny a good part of the day, same yesterday. Hey, 
we're not complaining about the rain, it is the rainy season. There's a high 
chance of rain throughout the week, however, I'm sure there will be lots of 
sunshine as well.   I hope so, for our visitors. Be well, be happy. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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- Active Weather!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 31 Oct 2015 16:42:48 -0400
Happy ALL HALLOWS EVE! The tropical wave expected for later tonight has 
arrived; not in full force as yet but enough for our cat to scurry for a good 
hiding place behind or under the furniture. If this is in earnest it should 
last through Sunday and maybe on Monday along with the polar trough. Have a 
safe night. May God bless and protect us all.

Isabel

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- Active Weather for the Weekend
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 30 Oct 2015 23:36:48 -0400
Good night, All, near and far away, it's been a day of sudden drenching showers 
and with the ground so saturated there is the high potential for flash flooding 
with the weather scenario that is setting up from Saturday night now through 
possibly Monday. This is the system that will bring that polar trough. We shall 
see how that plays out. In the meanwhile, I'm including a long shot of the 
Bypass overlook from the street below and others from the overlook itself. One 
has to take a photo from across in order to get the entire overlook. Be well, 
be happy, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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- The Near Future Weather --for us
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2015 21:13:44 -0500
Good Night, folks!

I have my one ear on the Republican debate, and one on the World Series game--Mets are losing 4 - 1 at the moment, too bad, but here I am sending in this post, which will probably make a lot of people in the area frown especially if they don't like rain, and especially if it does materialize. First of all, last night we got quite a downpour. Our ground is very saturated from all the rain the last days. The deer hoof prints (holes) are quite visible now. We've had beautiful weather today, very sunny, and great for gardening with the soil so moist. However, for the upcoming weekend all the models suggest " a pattern shift " , " a deep layer polar trough ".  Polar trough? Sounds cold ! " a very moist and unstable environment ". However, " this is several days out so will stay conservative and continue to monitor and see how the models adjust and the expected pattern unfolds"  "stay tuned". The quotes are from the National Weather Service (NWS) of San Juan, P.R.

So there we are, what our weather in the near future will look and feel like if it unfolds as described. I am very curious about the polar trough! Maybe our beloved Super Dave can explain what that's all about? Do we have to pull out the blankets and sweaters?? If it does unfold, it is expected to begin on Sunday, so the whole weekend should not be a complete washout. Let's enjoy one day at a time and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- The Day After Rain Days
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 12:28:09 -0400
Well, that was a long spell, Friday to Tuesday! As usual though, some get more 
than others. We even had to use the clothes dryer; that goes to show how moist 
the air has been. Now the sun is shining through again. Praise the Lord! I'm 
always glad for the visitors. Have a great day and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Black and White Photo?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 25 Oct 2015 19:55:03 -0400

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These photos were taken at noon today. We expected "all hell to break loose" . 
Thank God, it didn't!  Later on in the afternoon it poured for a while. There 
is a high chance of rain for the entire week. The bad thing is that I can't see 
out the windshield when it rains or the sun or car lights shine directly; can't 
see the road when that happens. Apparently the wipers engrained lines on the 
glass, plus we can't seem to clean the inside completely. Hope not, but it's 
like an accident waiting to happen. The school my grandchildren attend is not 
nearby. They don't want to miss school, so, if it's raining 100% and school is 
not canceled off we go and hope for the best. Right now we are under a Flash 
Flood Watch until tomorrow night according to WU which monitors our weather as 
well. So far nothing from VI Alert. We shall have to wait and see. Have a good 
night and may God Bless us all.

Isabel

 
Sent from my iPhone

- Donut Cloud & BIG Rain
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Oct 2015 20:59:26 -0400
The 40% chance of rain turned into 100% and soon we had a mini deluge. I felt 
sorry for the National Guard event at the wharf. They must have gotten soaked! 
However, tropical rain is different to other places and one dries in no time. 
As children we could hardly wait for rain to go out and play. Only storms kept 
us inside. Let's enjoy life one day at a time and be grateful for each breath 
we take. It's a gift. May God bless us all. 

Isabel

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This is the turtle domain.

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- An Angry Trough
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2015 21:50:07 -0400
That was really something today! The sky to the northwest was dark and 
threatening, but for us, only drama, no substance except for a few drops after 
all was said and done. There seems to be a very wet pattern in readiness for 
next week beginning Saturday night into Sunday and beyond. We have been 
especially concerned about the magnitude of Hurricane PATRICIA making landfall 
in Mexico. Another history maker, record breaker. Those poor folks must be 
having a horrible time. I hope and pray that they were able to get away to a 
safe place. What a monster storm, indeed. Scary to think that we're all in for 
that size hurricane  
in the future!! God help them and us! 

Isabel 
 


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- An Angry Trough
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2015 21:50:07 -0400
That was really something today! The sky to the northwest was dark and 
threatening, but for us, only drama, no substance except for a few drops after 
all was said and done. There seems to be a very wet pattern in readiness for 
next week beginning Saturday night into Sunday and beyond. We have been 
especially concerned about the magnitude of Hurricane PATRICIA making landfall 
in Mexico. Another history maker, record breaker. Those poor folks must be 
having a horrible time. I hope and pray that they were able to get away to a 
safe place. What a monster storm, indeed. Scary to think that we're all in for 
that size hurricane  
in the future!! God help them and us! 

Isabel 
 


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- This Morning...Captured!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2015 14:54:17 -0400
There are days and there are days. No two days are alike, neither personally 
nor photographically. Each day is special, a gift. It has never happened before 
nor will it happen in the same way again. The weather has it's own role in each 
day as well. What was supposed to be a sunny day turns out to be a rainy day. I 
smile when I hear rain on the roof, in other places rain could just be adding 
misery to misery. This has been a very stressful, miserable hurricane season 
for many people around here and in the Western Pacific where so many Super 
Typhoons have battered that region of the world. The drought plagued us for 
months causing the farmers to suffer losses; those of us without potable water 
had to spend more buying truck loads of water; and if the road is bad, like in 
our case, we had to spend even more on a cement truck to fill in the ruts, or 
no water delivery. A paved road is costly. So, on each early morning comes the 
surprise package of a new day. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Rainy Season is In
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Oct 2015 21:23:41 -0400
Good night, all! Must say it has been raining more often now. Is the rain 
green? There's one VERY green photo taken late afternoon in the lower garden. 
Another one is the yellow butterfly bush. See them clinging to the leaves. This 
is our butterfly season, at least at our place it is. And then, there are the 
dramatic clouds getting ready to deliver rain somewhere. We even heard rumbles 
of thunder earlier today. The forecast into the weekend is for a couple of 
elements coming together to produce deep tropical moisture. It's a great time 
for planting. The ground is saturated and should remain so for a long time. 
There are at least 4 Lows in the Central Atlantic and one coming off the coast 
of Africa. Hurricane Season is not over! We still have to be in a continuous 
preparedness mode. May God bless us all!

Isabel

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- What a Rain/Sunday !!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 18 Oct 2015 17:34:59 -0400
Heavy rain surprised us today at intervals, and,of course, we were not ready 
with umbrellas when we were out! The day ended sunny with a silver sea! Looks 
like we could be getting lots more in the near future. Blessings to all!

Isabel


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- Greetings from the Tree Frogs
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 17 Oct 2015 19:07:02 -0400
Good evening, good night! I hope you're all as happy as these little creatures. 
We've been having rain showers  almost every day that's why they are so happy. 
During the long drought it was very still. Perhaps they're also enjoying the 
steel pan music that's wafting up from the town. Let's enjoy the relative peace 
and tranquility; may it be lasting. Let's not take anything for granted. We 
never know. Let peace, love, and joy reign in our hearts and may God bless us 
all.

Isabel

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Yesterday's rainbow

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This evening's afterglow 

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- Caught by Surprise!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2015 12:16:05 -0400
Good day, everyone! I certainly did not expect such an intense rain shower this 
morning as I was on my way out! It was a wonderful gift for a weather mom 
celebrating 
my son's birthday so many years ago. AND it was followed by an awesome rainbow! 
That one I had to see in the photo which my husband took. 

There are some tropical waves in the Central Atlantic. I hope these will also 
bring us some more
rain. I think JOAQUIN was the last storm of the season. So I hope, so I pray!  
Let's keep all the folks affected in the Bahamas and at sea in our prayers and 
give whatever we can. May God bless us all.

Isabel



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- 91 L is out
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 7 Oct 2015 23:16:51 -0400
It is no longer a potential disturbance but, nevertheless, packing a good 
amount of rain which I hope we can all share. What's confusing is that this 
website has it moving West and WU has it moving WNW. By the looks of the 
satellite imagery it is going to rain on Thursday  into Friday as predicted. 
That would be great. In the meanwhile we are being entertained from time to 
time with passing showers as in the photo. Will keep you posted. May God bless 
us all.

Isabel 

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- 91 L arrives on Thursday
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2015 22:42:28 -0400
According to the latest report 91 L should arrive as a tropical wave bringing 
heavy showers and gusty winds on Thursday morning. After it passes us that 
could change. It has been rather hot here during the middle of the day 
especially, evenings are pleasant. This photo was taken early evening.
Let's remember in our prayers all the folks who are suffering right now as a 
result of all the natural disasters. May God bless us all.


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- Watching Invest 91 L in the Atlantic
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Oct 2015 19:29:10 -0500
Good Sunday evening dear followers of Storm Carib. Thanks for your prayerful support, or otherwise. Our hearts go out to all the folks in the Bahamas who were affected by that monster of a hurricane. We cannot even begin to imagine what they must be suffering. Having had a similar experience with HUGO-- during which our island was devastated, we can form a small idea of the horror of having a major hurricane in place for three days. We hope that soon there will be more information in regard to those affected islands. I am sure that there will be a huge response to any appeal for help. We should always be ready to help in any way we can.

There was a huge fiery looking blob in the middle of the Atlantic and I was surprised that the NHC had not noticed, or did not want to mention it as yet. I guess everyone was watching JOAQUIN. In the meanwhile, the blob became Invest 91 L. It is located at 10.6 N 38.3 W with a 30% chance of developing in 5 days. The computer models are spread out as they disagree on the track. One of them is coming in our direction, another is traveling again near the Bahamas, etc. etc..check it out!  If it does develop we will have KATE to contend with. As always we wish these storms would go out to open sea. It is halfway to the Lesser Antilles, but since it is moving WNW at 15 mph., it should be above us by the time it arrives in this area. So I hope, so I pray, that it does not affect land anywhere. May God bless us all!

Isabel



- Thunderstorms from Hurricane JOAQUIN
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Oct 2015 17:17:44 -0400
Good evening from soggy Christiansted! My grandchildren are a birthday beach 
party and they were not getting a drop. All was quiet I the west. 

Here's what the National Weather Service in San Juan is reporting:  "Major 
Hurricane JOAQUIN located over the Bahamas will continue to induce a southerly 
flow across the region over the next few days. This Southerly flow will help to 
advect deep moisture over the area through at least Sunday."

The last bout we got a short while ago came with very gusty winds like a mini 
hurricane. I could not help thinking of what those poor folks on some of the 
islands in the Bahamas had to endure for so many hours.

JOAQUIN is moving towards the Northeast and according to Dr. Masters it was on 
the verge of becoming a  Category 5 !!

The ship with 33 crew had no excuse to be in the midst of this vicious 
hurricane. The ships usually are properly equipped with Radar. It must have 
been like a matchstick in those turbulent waves. It was taking on water the 
last they heard. May God bless them, the folks in the Bahamas, and us all.

Isabel
 

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- T H U N D E R !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Oct 2015 22:31:09 -0500
A thunderstorm is approaching. Rain is moderate to heavy. Our cat went into hiding. 
He sees the flash of lightning and knows what is coming. This Is truly a welcome rain.
Our hearts go out to the folks in the Bahamas. It must have been a terrible battering. I hope and pray that everyone  is
safe. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- CAT 2 JOAQUIN
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 22:42:43 -0500
Good night, all! At 8:00 p.m. this evening JOAQUIN was upgraded to a Cat 2 Hurricane, and he has company, a Low to the left and the remnants of IDA to the right. My New Yorkers don't seem concerned. It is most likely going to turn off to open sea, or just bring rain. That's the thought. Meanwhile in Virginia there is a State of Emergency. I hope my friend near the coast will do the right thing and leave that area. Super Storm SANDY has been mentioned by way of comparison. JOAQUIN is packing more rain than SANDY did.?? And to think that he passed us, without dropping a drop!!  Hopefully those two Lows on the way from Africa will bring RAIN. Otherwise, there is rain in the forecast for the weekend and early next week. I won't hold my breath. Would be nice, not that I like weeds! Let's pray that everyone along the coast is taking all the necessary precautions and stay safe.  May God bless us all.

Isabe

- Tranquility
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 22:59:33 -0400

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Morning...

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...and evening.

Many Blessings,
Isabel

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- The Setting Moon..
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2015 00:14:16 -0400
On Tuesday morning the moon was setting and looking as full as on Sunday. Maybe 
you can see it in the photo. We have not had any rain since the mini deluge a 
while back, but I do not envy the dangerous
scenario that's taking shape along the Northeast.   I hope everyone there will 
do everything to stay safe.
We have an abundance of sunshine  which we would be happy to trade for some 
rain if only that were possible! May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Tropical Storm Joaquin
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2015 23:33:02 -0500
All is quiet here, but I noticed that Tropical Storm Joaquin is headed to New York! I have to alert my two sons to be on guard. It's still quite stormy in Africa. So WE are not out of the woods as yet, may God bless us all. 

Isabel

- A Beautiful Day...
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Sep 2015 00:22:32 -0400
Good night, all!  Hope you had a wonderful day as well. We've been following 
Pope Francis all these past days. A rainbow appeared in the sky over Central 
Park, according to CNN, when the he was scheduled to drive through 
in the pope mobile. It was sunny; no rain in the forecast. Many were taking 
pictures of it. A most unusual sight. 

Tonight the moon was huge and glorious. Then the eclipse took place. A blood 
moon? I managed to get a reasonable photo, which I edited. It's not a 
professional photo, but it was the best I could do. May God bless us all!

Isabel

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This morning at the lagoon park. Christiansted in the distance.

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Super Moon/lunar eclipse. The Next one will be in 2033..? So I heard.

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- Eerie Evening
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 24 Sep 2015 18:17:08 -0400
We could not believe our eyes. Did the islands move closer.? It was an optical 
illusion, rather eerie. There they were, forty miles to our north, St.Thomas, 
St. John, Tortola, Virgin Gorda. Perhaps they could also see us. Weather's been 
great. To all of you very far away who always follow stormcarib, come, visit, 
and explore our island. God bless you and us all.

Isabel

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- R A I N !!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015 23:06:32 -0400
Finally! We received the best soaking in months!!  It was accompanied with 
lightning and thunder, of course. One was so loud that I shrieked as I was just 
going out on the porch to take a picture of the historic event. All our 
auxiliary tanks must be full and the cisterns must have gotten quite a bit as 
well. Praise the Lord! Our prayers were answered. Thanksgiving is due for sure. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Heavenly...!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Sep 2015 13:30:10 -0400
I like the color blue, it is heavenly. I like the blue sea too, but if I scoop 
up a handful, it is not blue! If I fill a bucket of blue sea water, it is as 
clear as can be. Where is the blue? In Heaven where it is heavenly. After all 
is said and done the bottom line is that it is beautiful. Come on down !! May 
God bless us all !!

Isabel 

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- It RAINED in the Sea
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Sep 2015 22:13:54 -0400
All we could do was watch and take photos of this show (see photo). Some folks 
benefited from the rain as well. We've had some sparse showers, but so seldom 
that it's a like a novelty each time.  On Thursday we drove halfway west to 
Public Safety to register the vehicle and from the airport onwards it poured! I 
was happy for the farmers in the area. They have been in dire straits. Too bad 
Tropical Storm IDA is passing too far from us. Well, maybe it will come nearer. 
We don't see any rain in sight, but sometimes there are surprises! Have a good 
night and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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- Hurricane HUGO - September 1989 - How bad is BAD?
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 18 Sep 2015 23:10:12 -0500
HUGO was bad, but then, how bad is BAD?

Well, you have a good floor you don't like, but it can't be ripped-up 'cause that would be a shame, such a good floor, and all. So, you live with it, and liive with it, and maybe come to hate the good floor, but you can't do anything about it. Then along comes HUGO.., and in a matter of weeks, you have a beautiful, shiny, new floor. Is that BAD ?

Costly renovations were carefully planned and put aside for that day when enough money was saved for such a venture, then along comes HUGO, and the Insurance covered it. Is that BAD ?

Everything was gone with the wind, or damaged by water, so everyone had to go out shopping for new things. HUGO helped a lot of people get things they would have otherwise not been able to get, and I mean the honest -to -goodness way. Is that BAD ?

Some say HUGO was a purifying Force. He straightened many people out, certainly a lot more people, than ever before, prayed for protection on that evil night. Is that BAD ?

So, strange enough, BAD Hurricane HUGO was GOOD!!

On another note, we have been suffering with our friends in CHILE, who were hit by a massive earthquake. Tomorrow I will share with you some experiences we had while there.

Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel



- Hurricane HUGO - September1989 - How to measure D_A_M_A_G_E
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2015 22:35:33 -0500
The Aftermath from my article, a continuation :

"It is not easy to measure D_A_M_A_G_E of this extent, but in order to have an inkling of how much of it there was on the 82 sq. mile island of St. Croix, let;s measure it by the waste debris left by HUGO: on Nov. 5 - 6, 1989, over 200 million tons of it, --25 feet high, about the size of ten football fields, was scheduled to be burned. A controlled burn of this sort with that amount of debris would take 24-36 hours, otherwise, according to the authorities as state in the St. Croix Avis, "It would take about 4,000 days for the islands two incinerators working around the clock to burn the debris." Another option was of "shipping it to fuel starved Haiti, but a government expert estimated that 10 barges would have to take daily trips for four years to haul the trash to Haiti." And if we think that that is all the debris, let us look again. The 200 million tons "represented only 20 percent of the storm-related trash that must be burned. Based on that percentage, the amount of HUGO debris on St. Croix totals 1 billion pounds."

So, folks, by the amount of the debris, it's easy to see what a tremendous devastation was left by HUGO. It was the first such hurricane in 60 yrs. So, many people were convinced that they would always pass to the north or the south. Apparently construction was shabby by those who would make a living and then a leaving. My father built several houses on St. Croix including our own and they all survived HUGO. They were built to sustain hurricane force winds, After HUGO some very strict building codes were put in effect and inspectors come on board every so often. A lot was learned from HUGO.

Can a bad hurricane be considered good? Find out tomorrow. You will be surprised! May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Remembering HUGO-September 1989
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2015 22:38:11 -0500
While keeping an eye on the many tropical waves that are rolling off the coast of Africa. I cannot help but remember that one such wave became the monster known as Hurricane HUGO. Sept. 17 -18 marks the 26th anniversary since that nightmare. I came home from New York one month after the event to check on family, which endured horrible anxieties before, during, and after Hurricane HUGO, and to check on our condo, whatever was left of it. I spent a month video taping the whole island, and recording the horrors people saw and endured.

An extract from my article: Hurricane HUGO - A Night on St. Croix :

"The survivors (everyone) are only too happy to be alive, and so they nervously laugh at themselves and make others laugh as they tell and re-tell their experiences of that night, which somehow have managed to become comical  for some with the passage of Time.

"They also marveled at the astonishing things they saw and heard: of flying plywood boards crashing and being buried so deep into the ground that they have to be sawed off, as they cannot be pulled out! Of the permanent ripple designs left on concrete walls by crashing corrugated galvanize sheets as they sliced their way through the air! Of goat heads and even tree bases sliced cleanly off, perhaps by one of those flying blades! Of horses that took the strong gusts by lowering their heads to the ground and firmly bracing their hind parts against the wind; of some people being blown out of their apartment as if by a big explosion, clinging terrified to the door-posts the whole night long as their belongings in the form of broken, glass-filled debris crashed passed their ears; of people cramped and cringing, with fear and awe of HUGO, in closets and kitchen cabinets; of people risking their lives outside in the midst of the storm to seek refuge in their cars after the roofs had blown away; of a little girl being blown out of a window and dramatically caught by someone outside; of a family of four that huddled in their car, terrorized by the screeching wind which threatened to lift and crash their little refuge, when suddenly a distinct knocking sound on the windshield told them that there were five others with no place to hide from HUGO'S rage; of crashing sounds all around from flying house beams, entire roofs, trees, and many varied objects; of refrigerator, microwave, and toaster oven doors being opened by suction; of sand in cabinets; of steel beams twisted like so much licorice; of noise levels generated by the hurricane which were compared to the departure of a C-120 military cargo plane; of boats being blown well in to land on a main street; of voices in the air; and of the most horrifying, evil sounds, as if the air was virtually filled with demons; as if HUGO was accusing everyone, for it said very clearly, " Y-O-U-U-U-! Y-O-U-U-U-U-U ! And so on, and so on, for each person another experience to tell. Many were the anguished hearts lifted to Heaven that night."

Tomorrow I will share another extract from the article I wrote 26 years ago. In the meanwhile let's continue to monitor those systems to our east, that's where HUGO came from. Goodnight... May God bless us all.

Isabel




- Thundering to the West
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2015 13:48:24 -0400
Brief passing showers are all we got last night and early this morning. In the 
past hour thick clouds started to gather and now most likely the rain is 
falling over there, on midis land and beyond. We could be getting some as this 
drama is coming from the South. Looking at the Satellite Imagery there is a 
blob over the islands. I hope Dominica does not have to deal with more rain. 

95 L is looking more ominous by the minute. It has a good chance of becoming a 
name storm. Again, like DANNY and ERIKA, the European computer guidance has it 
coming to the Northern Lesser Antilles by midweek next week . If you can, 
please track it, and monitor 95 L !  May God bless us all. 

Isabel

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- RAIN, maybe......
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2015 19:10:29 -0500
According to Weather Underground

" Approaching tropical wave with axis currently at around 60W will cause a gradual increase in the local moisture starting late tonight into Tuesday morning..."

93 L will probably be a fish storm, but bears watching until that happens.

95L is another story altogether. We definitely have to watch this one. It is very low moving West at 15 mph.

The Atlantic Ocean is suddenly very active. With a second peak coming in October, any of these big waves coming off the coast of Africa could become a problem for us and all the islands in the region. Some people want rain so much that they really don't care what form it takes.

I read that Hawaii is suffering from "hurricane fatigue". Not that they have been hit, but the stress of having it heading there, the preparations etc,, etc.. Our stress has been the promise of rain that never gets here. I think the same thing is going to happen now if the animation was correct. The TW is being blown to shreds? Well, let's hope we get some rain before it dissipates complete!
May God bless us all..

Isabel




- Breezy Day! Wonderful !
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 14 Sep 2015 12:51:45 -0500
Brand new! 95 L !  That's going to be a real threat for us next week unless something impedes it from developing. Stay tuned ! The weather here is great and if tomorrow!s TW arrives at night to Wednesday everyone will be very happy. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Blessings!
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2015 19:11:31 -0400
I wish everyone health and happiness. I sent out an update around midday but I 
don't see it anywhere. Anyway, our weather has 
been quiet with a sprinkling in the early afternoon. We expect a TW on Tuesday 
and Wednesday; we hope to get some rain out of it. Otherwise, we are keeping an 
eye on possible " Ida " which already has a 90% chance of developing. Computer 
model guidance has it going out to sea, however, if it stays on the weaker side 
it will continue west. Perhaps Ida does not like fishing. We have to remain 
watchful and pray. We do not want anything BIG threatening us. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel


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- Happy, Blessed Sunday
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 13 Sep 2015 13:22:59 -0400
Hi! Today it's a bit hazy, cloudy, nice breeze... I hope everyone, whether 
you're here or in Timbuktu, are having a nice day too! 
Those of us in the region should keep an eye on what could possibly become " 
Ida " early next week. Never thought we needed to pray that a storm to our east 
gets stronger, but in this case we do. It seems that the weaker the storm the 
greater the likelihood that it will come towards us (by next weekend)  whereas, 
the bigger the storm, the greater the likelihood that it will go out to open 
sea because of other elements in the atmosphere that will push it out. Let's be 
watchful and pray. May God bless us all.

Isabel

p.s. there was a young Re-Footed Tortoise at our screen door yesterday. It was 
a cloudy day, so his name is now Cloudee. We have no idea where he came from.

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- A Mostly Cloudy Day
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2015 18:34:32 -0400
Hello Again! Not a drop of rain all day even though the remnants of GRACE were 
passing Northwest over us. So, the water truck arrived instead.! Perhaps we'll 
have a better chance at free water with the next TW on Tuesday. Have a good 
night. May God bless all the folks around the world who are suffering as a 
result of natural disasters.
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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         Early Evening 

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- Drizzle...
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2015 05:43:05 -0500
Good Morning! Wind and drizzle with some very short bursts of rain was all we got. It continues to be overcast, but the chance of rain is only 20% as opposed to 100% chance last night when it rained next to nothing. We have to be pleased with whatever we get knowing that other times we will get more. My husband's hope was not to have to buy water so soon again. This hope was dashed by not getting the precipitation we expected. So, unless there's  a change we have to buy another 3000 gallons. The next wave is due the middle of the week. Let's be happy and feel loved and blessed.. May God bless us all.

Isabel


- I Can Hear Pin A Drop
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Sep 2015 02:11:20 -0500
Is it over? Not according to the radar.. I just woke up. Did it rain? It's quiet. I will go back to sleep. I have to be up by 5:00. (Yawn...yawn......) Lord, bless us all.

me


- That BIG RED BLOB...
  • By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2015 20:33:44 -0500
Is NOT in the least dramatic, maybe it is still going to happen. There's more wind than we expected, perhaps it's blowing the clouds away. Will get back later.  Blessings,

Isabel  

- Seems Like RAIN is on the Way
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2015 18:20:16 -0500
We are preparing for a stormy night, power outages, filled cisterns and water tanks. However, we are grateful for whatever we get. It's still quiet, but looking at the radar, it's on the way, deep, broad, green (meaning    rain). Glad it does not come down green! 😝
We hope everyone will be safe. Many people are killed by lightning strikes every year. It happened to a friend of my parents many years ago. She was running in the yard from one door to another. In case of lightning stay indoors especially when it's very near.!! Be safe! Will update later if we have Internet Access. May God bless us all.

Isabel

The rain is here! Not heavy as yet, but with a cool, refreshing breeze.

- Interesting Clouds
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2015 14:16:13 -0400
Once in a while we get really stormy conditions, without the rain as yet. Then 
the sun shines and all is back to normal. If it comes, the rain will arrive 
later this afternoon through Saturday morning.
Blessings,

Isabel

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- GRACE Who?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2015 16:33:22 -0400
I find it very strange that now that GRACE LOOKS HEALTHIER THAN EVER there is 
no information as to coordinates, how close etc.  The last and most recent 
coordinates I wrote down were 14.5 N. 49.0 W. 
It was "drifting" to the South quite below us and Dominica. Now I'm seeing this 
image and clearly it's higher! I read some concern in Lisette's update. It's 
understandable. Fr. Merilan responded to a WhatsApp message saying, "We're okay 
for now..." I'm sure he was also concerned about that blob. I hope and pray it 
passes them and drop all that rain on us who really want and need it. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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- GRACE-No More, HENRI-A FISH STORM, IDA--NEXT?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2015 23:12:38 -0500
The remnants of TD GRACE keep drifting to the South, so much so, that I no longer expect any rain from it. However, whether this is still valid or not, according to the National Weather Service of San Juan, PR, (Sept. 9)

"the remnants of tropical cyclone GRACE will combine with the aforementioned upper trough to produce organized convection across the local islands from late Friday into Saturday. Appears that conditions are favorable for heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms".

A new tropical wave is expected to roll off the coast of Africa on Thursday and already has a 20% chance of developing in the next five days. It is moving west at 15 mph. It can be our next name storm. It's not over as yet. Thursday is the peak of the Hurricane Season, and thank God for the SAL and Wind Shear, which have prevented the formation of Super Cyclones coming from Africa this year.

It is good to know that so much help has arrived in Dominica and will continue to arrive for sometime. I hope and pray that everyone is getting the help they need during this time of recovery.and our sincere condolences go out to those who lost loved ones during that frightful storm.May God bless them and us all.

Isabel



- Sunny, Cloudy, Breezy Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 9 Sep 2015 14:19:40 -0400
A real mixed weather bag! It's quite pleasant. Now, all we need is the rain! We 
are going to keep our hopes, for GRACE, up at least until Friday. I was asked 
if this change of weather could be GRACE, the remnants, already. I didn't think 
so, but when I saw an image of it on WU, mmmmmm, there was an arm, one of 
several swirls coming from the system through our area. Very Interesting! We 
shall see later if this cloudy pattern continues. Until later when I update 
again. Blessings!

Isabel


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- POSSIBLE Heavy Rain for Friday....
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2015 22:50:41 -0500
That was the forecast for St. Martin. My weather radio is Kaput and I have not been able to get our local weather on NOAA. I get the one from Puerto Rico/.Our weather has been quiet. We're looking forward to rain on Friday, but that is wishful thinking. While on the subject of thinking.Has anyone stopped to thinking, has anyone stopped to think, what would have happened if the Sal and wind shear were not in place? TD GRACEis struggling to stay alive. Will she really make it this far.? We shall know on Friday l  May God bless us all


Isabel




- POSSIBLE Heavy rain for Friday ?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2015 22:16:11 -0500


- Peaceful, Labor Day Evening (post # 2)
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2015 19:54:28 -0400
The photo tells it all. We wait in suspense now for GRACE. This system is 
supposed to be much diminished as it arrives in the Caribbean, but we're 
holding on to the promise of some rain. Three additional TWs are creasing brows 
as they make their way through Africa to the Eastern Atlantic. Looks as if 
we'll be having a busy time ahead. May God bless us all.( scroll down to see 
post #1)

Isabel

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- It's Beginning to Look a Lot Greener
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2015 18:39:26 -0500
Good Evening, All, near and far!

I must say we had some applaudable showers this morning. It hadn't rained like that in a while. Probably our neighbors two estates over would say, "What rain?" That's how it is. When we visited Universal Studios in California years ago, they had a set which showed how a 50% chance of rain works. It rained and poured on one side of the street and remained dry on the other. I have driven through rain here only to come out to a dry street the rest of the way! So, it did rain at our place this morning. What we are hoping is that TS GRACE, soon to be a TD before it arrives in our local area, will still bring enough rain to fill up the cisterns and saturate the soil. We have 10 new banana plants growing with the spurts of rain we've been having in recent weeks; we just need a more steady, soaking rain. We look forward to some "Finger Bananas" in the near future. The yellow plums can use some additional moisture, and the Sugar Apples are just flowering. It is most delightful to see everything coming to life after several months of a drought like we have never seen on our property.

I hope and pray that as GRACE in whatever form crosses into the Caribbean it does not drop too much rain on Dominica. They are still trying to recover from ERIKA's onslaught. We have a collection point here at St. Ann's Church for bulk items and there will be a special monetary collection one weekend at Holy Cross Catholic Church to send from our Bishop Bevard to their Bishop. We should all do our part, even in a small way if we cannot afford anything big. It's coming from the heart. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Mixed Feelings about T.S. GRACE
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 6 Sep 2015 14:11:50 -0400
A good Sunday Afternoon !

So far the word is that T.S. GRACE will strengthen before it weakens and reach 
the islands only as a remnant Low. That would be great! On the other hand, the 
seventh storm of the season usually turns up around the 16th of September. HUGO 
was the 8th storm in 1989 and it came straight from the coast of Africa. It is 
referred to as a Cape Verde storm. Any similarities ? Let's hope
and pray that GRACE does exactly what the experts say about this storm and we 
only get the rain we need. May we continue to have peaceful, beautiful days as 
in this photo, just taken from our porch, and may God bless us all.

Isabel


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- Tropical Storm GRACE
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2015 18:32:14 -0500
That was fast! So now we have a week to monitor. Apparently, if it does affect us in any way it will be next Friday. The computer models have it tracking more to the Northern Islands, and there is a kind of confidence that it will break up with the strong winds. If a storm is strong, sometimes the wind is nothing, it might become part of the storm.

As usual, we need rain. It has been back to dry days since the bit we received from ERIKA. We would like GRACE to supply us with some water. Unfortunately, the faucet of the largest tank broke off and most of the water gushed out. We managed to save what we could. Now it's set to go again, and we are not using an attached hose, which must have been the culprit.
So, we need rain, and we hope this next storm with just be a rainmaker and not hurt anyone with huge amounts. We can only wait and see, monitor and definitely pray. May God bless us all

Isabel

- TD Seven In the Atlantic
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2015 12:45:54 -0500
Don't get depressed, but 91 L is now a Tropical Depression, still heading this way.
That is way earlier than the NHC predicted. They expected this to happen by Tuesday. This system is developing faster than the experts think. It has lots of room to grow and everything is in it's favor until it's closer to the Antilles. Stay tuned to whatever media you have especially after the weekend. Stay safe and may God bless us all.

Isabel



- 91L off the African coast is one to watch
  • From: Marlene Harris <marlene at stcroixmarine.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2015 08:20:13 -0400
Happy Saturday! I have been off island since mid August and had my 40ft. 
Beneteau in the Marina for that time. Erica came and the yard de-masted us so 
preps were definitely being made for her. I have friends who rode out the storm 
on their boat in the harbor. The first winds came around 7:30 pm at 75ph.  
Their boat  heeled over,  knocking things off shelves, and giving them a panic, 
but in the end, Erica was just much needed rainfall for the island.

Now that our boat is ready to get back in the water...I look and see 91L with 
an 80% chance of becoming a tropical storm.

Dr. Jerry Masters of Weather Underground wrote that 91L has favorable 
conditions to form and be in our area within 6-8 days. We will keep an eye on 
this one. 



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- 91L - an 80% Chance of Formation in 5 days!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 4 Sep 2015 21:47:02 -0500
It's been spinning from before it left the coast of Africa. It's large and furious. Does not look good for the Lesser Antilles. It seems to be targeting this area. Of course, it is over 3000 miles away and it can change direction, perhaps higher in the middle of the Atlantic? Like Fred. Well, I just found out that FRED can regenerate into a TD. As long as he stays out there. As for the next name storm GRACE, it would not surprise me if a TS develops by the weekend. With an 80% chance of formation it can happen at any time, that means it will be a TS, or probably a hurricane by the time it gets here.. It is very, very active and apparently is has nothing to stop it until it's almost here when some strong wind shear could reduce it to a TW again. Let's focus on 91 L, track it, monitor it, and be prepared in the event it does make a bee line for our neighborhood. I better look into getting that generator. All the best to everyone. Stay safe. Let us help Dominica. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Three Tropical Waves to Watch!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 3 Sep 2015 19:07:44 -0500
Good Evening, all!   I must have been exhausted when I wrote last night. How can a TW that "is stepping off the coast of Africa arrives tomorrow in whatever form". My sincere apologies. No way can that happen. The TW even before it stepped off today, Thursday, already had a 40% chance to develop before it gets to the Antilles. But that does not happen until midweek next week. During this upcoming weekend it is expected to reach TD or TS status, but the wind shear will increase as it approaches the local area, so it can be diminished to a tropical wave again. That would be fine with me. We need rain, no storm.

Two other TWs are following in its path. It's important that we monitor these systems and be ready. We don't have to wait for the experts to tell us what to do, we should know by this time. ERIKA left many without electricity for days, probably still today, and that was just a swipe. A direct hit by HUGO left everyone in the dark for months. Granted, many had generators, but the vast majority did not.(There had not been a direct hit by a hurricane in 60 years. After HUGO a cube of ice was like a gold nugget. Think about it, how we take so many things for granted, then suddenly, something like a piece of ice is the most important thing in the world. After a hurricane the heat is intense, thirst for something cold increases...Let's hope and pray that we never have another direct impact by a hurricane, especially a Cat. 4-5 like HUGO, and let's help Dominica in whatever way we can. May God bless us all.

Isabel


- Quiet Time
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 2 Sep 2015 20:24:34 -0400
Good Evening, All! I hope everyone is following the ordeal in Dominica. We have 
a community of Dominicans here and I'm sure they are going to do a collection 
of items to ship.
Please read the updates from Dominica from the 26th on, Lisette posted then and 
has not been heard from since, but it was reported that she was located and is 
well; apparently she has no way to communicate. The season is far from over. 
The Tropical Wave that is stepping off the coast of Africa arrives tomorrow  in 
whatever form. It already has a 20% chance of
developing. We have
to monitor each storm; be prepared with the necessities. This is one for WAPA: 
the correspondent who wrote from Dominica   said they did not lose power during 
the storm!! That was a vicious storm, read how he describes it. So, look to the 
East and be ready, and may God bless us all.

Isabel


JPEG image

    Taken this morning

JPEG image

Taken this evening at Shoys.


Sent from myE iPhone

- NEXT In Line ? (Previous update escaped me and went out unfinished)
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015 23:05:01 -0500
We've been having beautiful weather, though hot and humid a good part of the time..This last Tropical Wave that was bringing at least a 90% chance of rain didn't quite make it except for a few drops. I was already warning my grandchildren to take proper rain gear to school. We can still have rain showers on and off from other activity, but nothing at all significant.

However, the National Hurricane Center of Miami is keeping an eye on a Tropical Wave that will exit the African Coast on Thursday. Whether this develops or not, it should reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday of next week. That will bring us the next significant rain, let us hope and pray that it is not coming with a name attached. Have a good night. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Next in Line?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 1 Sep 2015 22:27:27 -0500
According to the NHC, a Tropical wave 

- Back to Drier Days!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 31 Aug 2015 15:30:49 -0500
Good Afternoon!

Thank God that Hurricane FRED is far from us. It pummeled the Cape Verde Islands today. The first time in recorded history that they were in such a state. They're usually passed to the south and head west to our islands. Sorry for Dominica where the number of dead keeps rising. The devastation there must be absolutely incredible.Let's do what we can to help, We are having a repeat performance of pre-ERIKA days with dry weather, kind of hazy out there. However, there is supposed to be a tropical wave coming in to our area tomorrow, I noticed on Satellite Imagery that the TW, which looked healthy before, is looking smashed. Could be that we will get some "moisture" nevertheless. We can use lots more, that's for sure, but I'm not holding my breath. Let's do our best with what we have. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- ERIKA & The Empty Fi
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Aug 2015 00:05:33 -0400
This tank was under a covered area yet it is half full of water with ERIKA'S 
brief visit (blown in?). I also forgot to mention that there was no thunder 
whatsoever. I thought we would get the whole works. A storm without lightning 
and thunder! Bizarre! Another almost funny thing. The forecast has a TW for 
early Sunday morning and it started raining already a few minutes ago; at the 
first drop, power outage! I wonder, until when. Next week there is another TW, 
about midweek. So it looks as if we are going to have the rain we wanted 
anyway, without a storm. AND I understand that 99L could become Fred tonight or 
tomorrow. Have a good night, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Power Outages on St. Croix
  • From: captaindee1 at gmail.com
  • Date: Sat, 29 Aug 2015 20:10:42 -0400
The Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority 
is under a tremendous amount of pressure from angry residents to better inform 
us via radio or the Internet as to the status of restoring power to all 
households. 
As of about one hour ago WAPA gave its first 
website update since YESTERDAY -informing the public that by tonight 90% of the 
power would be restored and by Sunday night we should expect complete 
restoration.
The general sentiment of locals is that this was not a major storm and outrages 
of this magnitude demonstrates the fragility 
of our power grid and the inability of WAPA
to maintain a utility. 
Please visit the VI WAPA Facebook page 
and the Virgin Islands Consortium. 

Sent from my iPhone

- ERIKA's Blue
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 19:48:12 -0400
This photo of one of ERIKA's rain bands, was taken on Thursday morning. The 
blue that we see in the Satellite Imagery    is not blue but gray like the 
cloud we see here. All day we have had this gray shroud over us: not a drop all 
day, yet it seems that it's been raining! Hopefully the sun will reign 
tomorrow. The videos from Dominica are heartbreaking. Let's hope that they will 
not be touched for the rest of the season. It seems that the next "potential" 
will avoid the Caribbean Islands. That would be great! May God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- Fwd: FW: Four photos from the east end...
  • From: Gert van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 11:31:41 -0700
Message from Michael Luce, who is in Grapetree Bay overlooking the old Grapetree Bay Hotel.  Received email via Susan Beck, Allure Travel.
--
Gert van Dijken
Caribbean Hurricane Network
http://stormcarib.com



-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Luce 
Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 12:52 PM
To: Susan Beck
Subject: Four photos from the east end...

[...]

As you can see, it could have been worse. My house was thankfully spared any apparent damage.

We'll hopefully have power restored soon. I hear that 40% of the island is now back on WAPA.

[...]

-mll



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- The Day After ERIKA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 13:24:56 -0500
Good Afternoon,

We were prepared for the worse, and we're happily surprised that we were only buffeted for an hour and a half where I am in the town. We thought it would last all night. We were told to expect 4- 8 " of rain , 12" in isolated areas. It rained heavily for that short space of time with some brief pauses and then it was quiet. The wind was like a mini hurricane, but it just vanished and all we got was drizzle and some slightly heavier mix. The power outage happened almost right at the beginning. I don't know if it was purposely turned off as a precaution, but we did not get it back for 12 hrs or more. Some got it back sooner, and so on. There was  a curfew to keep vehicles off the roads so that debris from trees could be cleaned up. The curfew was lifted at 11:00 a.m. It has been very overcast on the verge of oncoming rain otherwise since last night's onslaught it's been quiet. We had no internet service until mid morning today. I tried several times. I want to thank everyone for your concern. We have yet to find out if there have been any severe damage or injuries to anyone. May God bless us all. 

Isabel

- Update.
  • From: Ehsan Said <esaid09 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 14:09:47 -0400
We have to thank God damages were nothing like Dominica. We had a lot of debris, poles down and trees knocked down. As of now, only 40% of the island has Electricity. Curfew has also been lifted as of 11 am.

Stay safe!

- Erika
  • From: Gert van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 10:57:25 -0700
From Cordelia on St.Croix...
--
Gert van Dijken
Caribbean Hurricane Network
http://stormcarib.com

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Cordelia Jones <cordelia667 at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Aug 28, 2015 at 10:42 AM
Subject: Erika
To: Gert Van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>


Hi Gert.  I hope You get this. My email, cell service quit working about 3 hours ago.. Your email is only one that has come through.  Cannot send or receive texts either. If you get this, we are ok. Last night we had major high TS Force winds, & one gust was 65 mph. We received 2.3" of rain in our Rain Gauge. I'm in Eastend STX. Today, went out to assess damage, trees & power lines down.  Some flooding, but didn't see much structural damage. Thank God. 
Anyway, I hope you get this, but none of my other emails or texts going out. Surprised I got yours!

Stay safe,
Cordelia Jones




- Update
  • From: Ehsan Said <esaid09 at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Aug 2015 13:35:02 -0400

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- ERIKA has ARRIVED!!!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 19:01:55 -0500
On target! We are having very intense RAIN !
The power is out! Just went! It had been fluctuating for several hours. So far we've had only bands of heavy rain, but not a steady heavy rain. We are sorry for the people of Dominica who suffered such a blow. A local friend from there told me that the river overflowed it's banks and took houses and everything with it. Four people lost their lives. The storm is raging here. I hope every one here took the precautions necessary. May God help us and bless us all. I'm sending this out at 8:00p.m. Don't know if it will go out right away. Will update later.

Isabel


- Re: ERIKA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 11:12:52 -0400
The storm is closer. We have on again, off again sunshine, a sudden burst of 
showers and wind, and so on. The sailboat in the photo was beyond the reef when 
I saw it very early this morning. Perhaps it was looking for a safe place. VI 
Alert is already warning of Flash Floods ahead of the storm. I will send in 
updates throughout the day. God bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image



Sent from my iPhone

- 6:00 A.M. - First Signs of ERIKA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 06:30:06 -0400
Good morning, weather friends, near and far!

We do not expect the "fullness" of ERIKA until this evening, but this is how 
it's starting out. I will try to send updates throughout the day. 

Blessings, 
Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Ready or Not
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 23:02:16 -0500
Good night, dear followers, and new found friends of the Caribbean Hurricane Network. Thank you very much for sticking with us. We can use all the support and encouragement during times like these. An approaching storm is a very stressful situation. The larger the storm, the more the stress. After all is said and done and prepared, there's the waiting...will it ever arrive? It's so sloooow... And then the wind picks up and the howling around the house, otherwise, it's QUIET! So, I shall retire now and hope to wake up to the delightful sound of rain. Before I sign off, I was happy to learn from VI Alert that hospital shelters were available for people with special medical needs. As for ERIKA, be good, give us the much needed rain, especially to the farmers, who work so hard producing our food.Have a restful night everyone, and may God bless us all.

isabel


- Preparing for ERIKA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 18:59:46 -0500
Good Evening,

Everyone is getting ready for ERIKA.. We did the same for DANNY and some of us were very disappointed that we only got a drizzle. We hope ERIKA will deliver without over doing. Too much of a good thing can also be dangerous. As a matter of fact, VITEMA has been very diligent in sending out alerts at every moment, about everything concerning the storm. The shelter, I guess there's only one, opened at 6 p.m. this evening. Government will be closed on Thursday. Parochial schools will be closed for the second time this week.Ports are closing at midnight, the funeral was postponed to Monday, and so on.

In the meanwhile, ERIKA is out there, looking ragged again, which probably means she is getting stronger. I understand that the storm is to intensify before arriving in our area tomorrow. The probable rain amounts have increased to 3 - 5 inches, possibly 8 in some areas. Clearly, water will be the main issue here, not wind. Flooding occurs with just a normal rainfall, therefore, we can expect a lot of flooding if we get that amount of rain. We need the rain, unfortunately, it comes with flooding. I just hope, though, we all get a fair share. Our friends on the East End of the Island got over 3000 gallons when Danny passed. We got a drizzle in Christiansted, as others did from what I heard.

It has been very breezy, with thick dark clouds coming from the direction of the storm. We have checked around the house to make sure all loose objects are put away, and there is not much to do for the moment except wait and hope everyone is taking the necessary precautions to stay safe. May God bless us all.

Isabel

I will update before retiring tonight.



- Tropical Storm Warning In Effect
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 13:35:08 -0400
At this moment it is sunny and somewhat hazy, with an easterly breeze. 
Charming! However, rolling towards us is ERIKA. Tonight she will be passing 
through the island chain into the Caribbean Sea. We expect this nice breeze to 
become stiffer as the hours pass. It is not 
expected to impact our islands until tomorrow afternoon. I suspect that school 
will be canceled, but how about the funeral for my former classmate tomorrow 
morning?! Suspense! I'll keep you posted later on the current conditions. I 
hope ERIKA does not have a trick up her sleeve-- like becoming a full fledged 
hurricane! God help us and bless us all.

Isabel

JPEG image


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Sent from my iPhone

- T. S. ERIKA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 18:53:19 -0500
I'm  keeping an eye on the weather. DANNY did not give my neighborhood as much rain as others on our island, but did we ever get some powerful thunder during the night! As a result we had a power outage, which fortunately did not last too long. However, it's a good idea, to have a battery powered lamp turned on in the bathroom in case the power goes and you happen to be taking a shower just then!

ERIKA seems to have moved down a bit, which is good for us, that is, as far as the rain goes. We can use more rain. I worry especially about the farmers. Today I heard of a man who just lost 5 of his cattle due to shortage of grass and not able to keep up buying food. It's really hard for those who depend on animals for their livelihood. How to water and feed them during an extended drought as this.

We're counting on ERIKA to give everyone a good soaking, a saturated soil that will bring back life to the non-drought-resistant plants and the grass. ERIKA is packing more moisture than DANNY and since it is now closer to us, and hope it stays, or even gets closer, we'll definitely get what we need.

I was also watching with awe the even bigger wave that was coming off the coast of Africa. We can almost be sure that it will follow DANNY and ERIKA, seems to be the trend. Be well, be happy, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- Tropical Storm ERIKA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 22:16:58 -0500
We are hearing a lot of rumbling, there've been flashes every now and then, but what we need most , RAIN, is sorely lacking. These occasional spurts do not  qualify as 
Rain.- It has to be a good steady downpour. Perhaps ERIKA will deliver the free water.
She'll be coming round In a couple if days!
Much bigger than DANNY.! Ready or not. ERIKA  is coming! May God protect and bless us all.

Isabel

- FREE WATER DELIVERY.?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 18:23:55 -0500
Good Evening, All!

We were hoping we would get free water from DANNY, but so far nothing. ( WAIT! It just started raining! BUT for how long,,,,) The Satellite Imagery does not always reflect reality. There can be an orange blob over a place and then you find out that they only got a drop of rain, as I heard was the case with Guadeloupe and Antigua. It has happened to us in the past as well.

Worrisome is 98L, which can give us a nasty surprise on Wednesday night. The experts in this field believe that it is serious about becoming a Tropical Storm very soon! Before it gets to the islands. It has been traveling very fast from the time it left the African coast, that's why it just about caught up with slow little DANNY.

Well, I'm done with this update and I can tell you that the rain was only a spurt. it's quiet again, except for the night creatures which are celebrating in anticipation of the rain. The little tree frogs have been very quiet for a long time. They need RAIN,, not spurts, then they're happy, like us, during this long drought. Be well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Waiting for Drought Relief
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 16:15:06 -0400
A very good afternoon to one and all! Here we are practically counting down the 
hours to the arrival of DANNY in whatever form, hoping to get the promised 
drought relief. It is sunny and breezy at the moment with patchy, dark clouds 
here and there. Other than the little wind chimes, it's quiet. Parochial 
Schools open tomorrow, private schools next week, and Public Schools open the 
day after Labor Day. It seems that they will be impacted in some way or other 
by the onslaught of tropical systems that are heading across the Atlantic. It's 
beginning to look like the Pacific. Will keep posting on the current 
conditions. Be well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Rain? Or No Rain?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 21:44:37 -0500
Good night, Everyone !

We're waiting with bated breath for TS Danny. Is it going to bring the rain we've been hoping for? I just did a CPA and the results were 47.6 miles to the north  from us.!!In the meanwhile, though, the storm's movement  is West. We'll see what happens  with that At the same time I am keeping an eye on the new Invest 98L,off the coast of Africa, movement to the West. I'll shall keep you posted on both of these. May God bless us all.

Isabel


- VITEMA ( from previous )
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 10:26:35 -0500
I was surprised that it was still a category one when I rose this morning! Weakening is expected later today. We should get a good amount of rain if it does not get away from us too far to the North. Let's pray and watch!
May God bless us all.

Isabel



- Fwd: Danny Forecasted to Reach the USVI Early Tuesday as a Tropical Storm, VITEMA Urges Public to Prepare, Monitor
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 10:18:43 -0500
Good Morning! 

Hurricane DANNY has not weakened as quickly as was thought. I was surprised that it was still a Cat 2 hurricane 

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: VITEMA <VITEMA at vialert.gov>
Date: Saturday, August 22, 2015
Subject: Danny Forecasted to Reach the USVI Early Tuesday as a Tropical Storm, VITEMA Urges Public to Prepare, Monitor
To: isabelcerni at gmail.com


Alert / Warning
Meteorological - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

...This is an ACTUAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ALERT...


Issued By:  VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions:  St. Croix, St. John, St. Thomas, Water Island Counties

Headline:  Danny Forecasted to Reach the USVI Early Tuesday as a Tropical Storm, VITEMA Urges Public to Prepare, Monitor

  At 5 a.m. today, the center of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 15.2 degrees north, longitude 50.8 degrees west.  Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 miles per hour.  A turn to the west with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 miles per hour with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.







The National Hurricane Center is advising the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands to closely monitor the progress of Danny.  The Tropical storm watches may be required for portions of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands on Saturday. Danny is forecasted to make its closest approach to the Virgin Islands at about 2 a.m. on Tuesday as a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50 to 55 miles per hour.

 There are no coastal watches or warnings currently in effect.

  VITEMA joins the National Weather Service in advising the marine community to remain vigilant to the evolution of Tropical Cyclone Danny. Marine conditions may rapidly deteriorate as Danny makes it approach to the Territory. VITEMA Director Mona Barnes is urging the public to make final preparations for the arrival of storm weather conditions early Tuesday morning, to stay informed by monitoring weather reports via local radio and television or the NOAA weather radio.





----------

For a permanent link to this Notification (may contain additional formatting and / or content which could not be sent), follow this link:  http://www.vialert.gov/Public/News/AlertView.aspx?notID=3336850&refer=HOME&source=ADFTFT&messageID=56753159&

To Un-Subscribe to this distribution, log into the VI-Alert - Civilians Portal using the following URL:  https://users.vialert.gov



- VITEMA; Sandbag distribution Territorywide
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 22:45:44 -0500
This was an Alert / Warning  that was sent  today. by VITEMA. Obviously a lot of rain is expected with the passage of Hurricane Danny. It is to begin weakening by tomorrow and pass us as a Tropical Wave by Tuesday. The sand bags will be distributed on Saturday and Sunday morning. If the storm moves too far to our north, we will not get any rain, but we can use the sand bags for the next one, which has already moved off the African coast moving West. So, we are going to be very busy for the rest of the Hurricane season it seems. In the Pacific Ocean there are five systems right now. Five.! Perhaps DANNY opened a Pandora's box.?? May God bless us all.

Isabel

- 0% Chance of Rain
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 13:34:28 -0400
..And even with a very healthy tropical wave going by. The Saharan dust is just 
choking it. That is what forecasters are saying about Cat 2 Hurricane DANNY. 
They expect the dust to weaken it. I just hope it does nochoke it to death! One 
way or the other we are going to get RAIN! Stay tuned and prepare for an 
unpredictable HURRICANE  
DANNY. Will check back later. God bless us all. 

Isabel


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Sent from my iPhone

- Closest Point of Approach to St. Croix
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 00:13:45 -0500
Based on the location of the storm at the moment and our location 17.7N  64.8 W the closest the storm will get to us is 11.6 miles, which is great because that being the case we should get a lot of rain without being too destructive. The CPA should happen in 3 days, 23 hours, 31 mins.

This can change with each update. One need just put in the location of the storm along with our own and get the results. This is only on storm carib as far as I know.
Try it. Have a good night.

Blessings,
Isabel

- Current Pre- Hurricane DANNY Conditions
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 13:26:52 -0500
At the moment, it's very hazy due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), occasionally dark, heavy clouds mix in; those are from the TW that is affecting us through Friday. Rain is in the forecast, however, the dust always manages to limit any rain. It's breezy, so much so , that it could seem that Hurricane Danny is right around the corner. Hopefully, it does not get any larger, but I have the gut feeling that it will be a Cat 3 before it gets here. Maybe it's because of all the super typhoons in the Pacific. At least we have the SAL as an advantage, let's hope it works especially as it approaches the islands where the warmer sea provides more energy. Let's prepare for the worse while hoping for the best.  May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Re: TS DANNY __ Eye to EYE...?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 09:23:02 -0500
Good morning, followers of Stormcarib near and far,

I'm not sure if I saw what I saw, but it seems to me that there is a closed circulation and an eye has formed. A dot in the middle of a circulation has always been considered an eye, or not?  Take a look at the Satelitte Imagery. If it is really accurate, it would be surprising if the NHC does not label DANNY a hurricane at 11:00 a.m. this morning. The original forecast was for it to become a hurricane today, Thursday. That would be right on track. It's very important that we monitor this storm. It has a mind of it's own and by now the computer models are going crazy trying to figure out where it's going. As I said before, we are all in need of RAIN. We do not want TS DANNY to be diminish by the SAL or 97L above it to such a degree that it dries up or blows away our chances to finally get a reasonable amount of rain. May God bless and protect us all.

Isabel

- Questions and Answers:
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 22:54:45 -0500
Which way is TS DANNY moving.? To the North. No, to the South. No, a direct hit.

In what form is it arriving in our area? As a hurricane, possibly a 2 or stronger. No, as a Depression. No, a weak Tropical Storm. No, an open Tropical Wave.

When is it arriving? The middle of the week. No, on Monday night. No, some time next week depending on speed.

The best thing is to hurry with whatever last minute preparations that still need to be done. Listen to whatever local media for the latest and obey the civil authorities.

Finally, stay put when the storm arrives. It is extremely dangerous to be out there whether it's wind or water.

The Prime Minister of St. Marten is concerned about landslides because of the drought and now the heavy rain in this system. We should be concerned as well. I know that if it gets really bad several areas in our property will most likely be further damaged. The good thing is that all the plants bounce back in no time.

Let's do what we have to do well ahead of the storm, Pray, prepare, and watch! And let's not forget to help the helpless. May God bless and protect us all.

Isabel



- Hurricane by Thursday??"
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2015 23:44:15 -0500
Here we are on the verge of what could be a major challenge for us. We have not had to deal with a hurricane for some time. It's northwest track would bring it very close. Rain is so important that we look forward to this storm to provide us with the moisture we need. But won't it be too much all at once? 
Time will soon tell. Let's watch and pray. May God bless bless us all.

Isabel

- Divine Rain
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 21:51:44 -0400
I could not help taking a picture of this Poster at the dentist's today.,.it 
seems that every one is pining for rain, even if it comes in the form of a 
Tropical Storm or worse. 96L could be the answer to their wishes. Be careful 
what we wish for. Right  now it is churning in the Atlantic, looking as if it 
means serious business. Where is it going? The computer models has it pointing 
in several directions, including here. So, whether it's divine rain or not, 
there's hope for some moisture from this system next week. May God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Cloudy / Rainy Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 16 Aug 2015 20:48:16 -0400
We've had a very overcast day with showers in some areas. We had some at midday 
and every night for several nights . Things are beginning to look up and in 
addition, the Atlantic is heating up. 96 L in the Atlantic is being given a 
high chance of developing into the 4th name storm in a few days. It has to be 
tested and if it passes the test should be turning to the northwest into our 
neighborhood. We have to monitor and be prepared.
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Wet Weekend?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 22:48:13 -0500
Hi, folks! Any day now, we wish, that the wind shear will abate. The forecast for the weekend is rain, however, the wind shear is very strong. While the dust has abated in our area, the wind is ripping apart the waves that can give us the much needed rain. LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL nevertheless, come and visit. May God bless us all.

Isabel

 

- Clouds come, Clouds go..
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2015 13:29:24 -0400
We're all in the same boat, waiting for rain. In the meanwhile, we can easily 
be the envy of so many countries which are having disasters of all sorts. Just 
read the horror stories of the weather articles on Weather Underground and find 
out. How long will the Atlantic remain quiet? Only Time can tell. I just wish 
that the entire face of the earth can be renewed. May God bless us all. 

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Beautiful Hurricane Season continues.....
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 10 Aug 2015 19:30:37 -0400
Good Evening, folks!

We are in awe at the quiet, lovely, Time this has turned out to be. No 
frightful hurricanes, no flooding systems, just gentle showers that provide 
enough moisture to turn brown into green like the lawn at the Christiansted 
Fort. The evening air is cool and very pleasant to sit outside. A tropical wave 
is expected over the local islands on Tuesday into Wednesday and another on the 
weekend,  if they get through. Be well, be happy, and may God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- What little showers produce..
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 9 Aug 2015 00:12:19 -0400
The daily showers we've been having is bringing back to life what appeared 
dead. Have a wonderful Sunday and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Daily Showers
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2015 23:05:12 -0500
Less or virtually no Saharan  dust equals more showers. That's exactly what we have each day now. There are some waves in the Atlantic that are raising eyebrows : they are actually Low Pressure systems. As we enter the crucial part of the Hurricane Season, it's wise to be attentive, alert, and prepared. Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel

The Hurricane Hat. by Sally Jacobs

- Sunny / Rainy Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2015 20:55:57 -0500
It was a perfect morning for Sunnee to meet his mother. (See photos in previous post.) Even the tortoises realized it has been a long time since it really rained, they stayed out to enjoy it. Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel


- RAIN !!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2015 21:38:11 -0400
It started raining late this afternoon and after a pause, it's raining again as 
I write! We haven't had rain like this "in ages"! My husband and I were 
noticing at noon that the dust had let up. As a matter of fact, if the dust 
lets up for good we should be getting more of the same Friday thru Sunday. 
There is a very Big wave coming off the coast of Africa which bears watching. 
This is a rainy evening photo:

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During the morning, as most of the day, it was very warm and sunny. It was the 
perfect time for Mama Tortoise and baby Sunnee to meet.

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   Not easy on this table...

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May God bless us all,

Isabel


Sent from my iPhone

- The Bromelias
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2015 23:56:55 -0400
No, that's not a family; it's a plant that sports these pink flowers on a stem 
. At the moment they are all blooming. They appreciate the precious drops of 
rain we have been getting during this long drought and are showing it. We need 
a lot more rain to repair all the damage done to our garden. Previous photo 
updates will prove this. In Time I know it will rain. God forbid we should have 
a super storm like the one bearing down on China, Japan, and other countries 
nearby. Let's pray for them. We can imagine what they must be going through. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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           Bromelias 

Sent from my iPhone

- A Droopy Palm Waves Goodbye
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 2 Aug 2015 19:27:36 -0400
Yes, another hot day without a good drenching, says the palm tree in this 
photo. Though 94L has fizzled, hopefully some of the rain will come through. 
Hey everyone, last night I happened to see part of the documentary on PBS on 
the 100th anniversary of the construction of the aqueduct from the Sierra 
Nevada through the Mojave Desert to Los Angeles and the San Fernando Valley. I 
missed a good bit but what I caught was absolutely amazing. It's a pity that so 
many people take water for granted by wasting so much of it. Here, we are 
seeing many plants, even trees drying out because of the lack of rain, these 
cannot be watered like potted plants. Water has to be the most important 
resource we have. What would we not give for a glass of cold water on a hot day 
when there's no water? It Can Happen Tomorrow- as The Weather Channel reminds 
us about other natural elements. Have a good night, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- What A Difference A Day Makes
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 1 Aug 2015 20:43:30 -0400
Hello again! Here we have similar photos to compare the difference in the air. 
Today, there was more blue sky and sea. Made me wonder if we were having a 
break in the Saharan dust. And 94L is still more alive than I thought. Behind 
it is another blob that, as Dave said, could benefit from the moisture of the 
previous one. Whatever the case, it is doubtful that we can continue this way; 
one of those big waves will get through sooner or later. At the moment I am 
only focusing on what is coming out of Africa, crossing the Atlantic, to the 
Caribbean. 94L is fighting the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). That's good and bad. 
Good because we can get the rain we need if it wins, and bad, because it can 
develop into a cyclone and we lose. So, let it be, and let us see, and may God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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3-day old Sunnee is sunbathing. ( the name is pronounced like "Sonny").

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Same view as yesterday, just lots more blue.

Sent from my iPhone

- Another Dry Fuzzy Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 22:36:07 -0400
However, we have Sunnee. 
He is very active. He "enjoys" his coffee-can-cover swimming pool even with a 
gray, fuzzy background. It is annoying, though, to see full clouds, which 
amount to nothing because of the relentless Saharan dust in the air. Today we 
had another water delivery. Business is booming for the Water Companies that's 
for sure. They don't do well during rainy seasons. 94 L is "clinging to life" 
out in the Atlantic, according to Dr. Masters. And so it goes. Have a good 
night and may God bless us all.

Isabel


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Sent from my iPhone

- A "SUNNEE" Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 31 Jul 2015 00:45:35 -0400
It was a sunny, windy day just passed. So, our new, little tortoise, has 
officially received the name "Sunnee". All our pets names end with "ee". If the 
remaining 4 eggs hatch they will all receive "weather term" names at the 
suggestion of my Salutatorian granddaughter. She is smart! As for 94L, it's far 
away and does not have a good chance to develop. That's great, but can it 
please come this far with rain?? May God bless us all.

Isabel

Sunnee managed to get  out of thiš tray where I had him getting a sunbath.

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So for lack of a safer place he ended up in the Pet Taxi.

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Sent from my iPhone

- New News
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015 20:34:01 -0400
Hello! I'm keeping an eye on our baby tortoise and on 94L off the coast of 
Africa. As usual, we watch it in case it means trouble down the road, rather, 
up the road to us. We are approaching our hurricane season. I just hope it will 
also be the beginning of the rainy season for us. 

Our baby tortoise was a big surprise.!! I was watching 4 eggs and there was 
this little critter as if waiting for me to open the door, which I did in order 
to transfer the eggs. I had no idea where it came from: no sign of a shell 
anywhere. So, it's our surprise baby. It drank lots of water and will do so for 
the first days. Two pieces of New News. I am definitely keeping my eyes on 
both. Actually, I also have 4 eggs to watch as well. May God bless us all!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Weather Beaten-(favorite) Tortoise House
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015 09:43:05 -0400
Good Morning, All!  This morning it seemed for a while that the rain clouds 
would break. They didn't, the glorious sun was shining as it ought to on the 
Sunshine State, and we could really use some of the torrential rain they are 
having in parts.

In continuation from my previous post. Here is a photo of the favorite Tortoise 
House, their favorite, which is closed to them now because of the eggs. 

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My favorite is this one with the flags.

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They don't like wind so the Burlap flaps allow them protection, at the same 
time the freedom to go in and out. Will they eventually have new company ? 
Suspense! (See previous post if you haven't as yet.) I think we may have to 
build a third house!

Have a wonderful day and may God bless our good plans and endeavors.

Isabel

 
Sent from my iPhone

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