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- Clouds courtesy of 97L
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2014 18:14:21 -0400
Or are they..?

Hello! There has been some confusion around  this system-97L. It is now 
referred to as ex-97L, but it is predicted to become a threat to Mexico. 
However, we have been given the all clear for the weekend, yet NOAA Weather 
Radio has it coming through us as a weak tropical wave low pressure system on 
Friday night through Sunday. Confusing.? It would not matter to me when or in 
what form if it wasn't for the celebration on Sunday. At the moment we have 
these clouds which could already be the effects of this broad, disorganized 
system. I am also tracking the BIG one, rather, the "large and powerful" 
tropical wave that is exiting the coast of Africa on Friday. That is definitely 
one to watch!
May God bless us all!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod


- Keeping an Eye on the African Coast!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 27 Aug 2014 12:23:43 -0500
Good Afternoon!

We're having a wonderful, breezy day with threatening clouds from the weak wave that's passing through. Perfect day for landscaping. My focus is not in our vicinity, it's all the way to Africa where the "mother" of all tropical waves is going to emerge on Friday night. Can you imagine that even before it hits the sea it already has a 40% of developing. It is predicted to become a Tropical Storm the day after it emerges!! Dr. Masters puts it this way, ,," A large and powerful tropical wave will........" Never heard of anything like that before, but that could very well be the way HUGO started out. That was a monster and this one looks as if it could follow that example. Let's pray that it does not. As for 97L, though NOAA Weather Radio keeps saying that it is coming up to the Northernmost islands, the satellite imagery shows it going West through the Central Caribbean. However, it can still climb higher into our neighborhood. It is forecast to do that on Friday night through Sunday.
Watch and PRAY are the key words as the Atlantic heats up. May God bless us all.

Isabel



- Another Wet Weekend.?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 25 Aug 2014 23:54:24 -0500
So it seems. Hello and goodnight. I am falling asleep, so this will be short. If you are planning anything for the weekend. The forecast is a wet one. This comes with Invest 97L. It could show signs of developing by Friday. Stay tuned and plan well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Invest 97 L
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2014 22:35:09 -0500

Goodnight, All!

We had dry, lovely weather today, which started out with a gorgeous morning of glory (see previous)! There is a weak wave coming through on Tuesday, otherwise the focus is on the new Invest 97L. It is described as a "fairly strong disturbance, now S/SW of the Cape Verdes".  By Friday it should have a good chance to develop. At the moment, it seems to be headed slightly North of us, but as we know with these systems they have to be monitored for they can change directions according to their current environment. Then, comes an even stronger one off the coast of Africa by next weekend, according to Steve Gregory. The Atlantic is really heating up. Be aware and be prepared.
May God bless us all.

Isabel


- Morning Glory !
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2014 06:57:55 -0400
Happy Sunday !

I was treated to this beautiful scene while many of you in our  vicinity still 
slept, so I want to share it with you and also with  you in other parts of the 
world who follow stormcarib. May you enjoy a beautiful day. We've been having 
showers on and off and there is even a thunderstorm or two in the forecast. I 
am looking East towards Africa with the hope that the second wave, the stronger 
of the two, does not become a serious threat. However, this is the time of year 
when we can expect cyclones to form. We hope they don't form, but the key is to 
be ready. Some people don't even want to hear about, nor prepare, they rather 
take the bull by the horns and hope they survive. God help us and bless us all 
this day.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Invest 96L Headline
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 23 Aug 2014 22:53:39 -0400
This was our local newspaper today. I'm sure this story was repeated on some of 
your islands with the same effects. I hope that those of you who needed rain, 
got it. After the last torrential rain last night, it has been quiet. Blessings!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- CRISTOBAL About to be Born
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 23 Aug 2014 21:43:08 -0500
Hello, Everyone (reading this blog)!  We had a beautiful, quiet day!

T.S. CRISTOBAL is forecast to develop tonight east of the Bahamas. Then brush the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. I must call my friend who lives on Myrtle Beach. She may not even be aware of this system.

However, that is no longer much of a concern for us. 96L gave us copious amounts of RAIN for which we are grateful. What we have to monitor closely now is " a strong disturbance " which moved off the coast of Africa, moving westward at 20 knots, "it bears monitoring." says Steve Gregory, colleague of Dr. Jeff Masters.

There is another wave ahead of it, "a broad, large scale wave " in the Central Atlantic (with little shower activity...?).What kind of wave is that! I thought tropical waves were such because they have shower activity. I guess we shall find out if it makes it across by midweek.. The "strong disturbance" sounds as if it definitely will be something to contend with. If it continues moving straight across it should be in our vicinity by the end of next week. Another soaker, or more, for the end of August. Monitor, monitor, and prepare! May God bless us all.

Isabel




- Invest 96 L on the Move...
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:32:28 -0400
Good Evening! 

I think everyone needed a boat today. It was great! Such RAIN as we haven't 
seen for a long time. I'm sure all cisterns are full, and if they aren't there 
are two similar Tropical Waves headed this way. Read Dr. Jeff Masters blog on 
wunderground. At the bottom of the page in reference to the Atlantic; he 
mentions them. RAIN is good, beyond that we must remain in a state of 
preparedness. Shortly after I took this photo I got caught in a huge downpour 
coming from that cloud. That is where 96L is tracking, leaving behind a lot of 
rain for at least another day. Stay safe, be well, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Torrential Rain !
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 13:49:51 -0400
A Very SOGGY Hello to you!

It's been RAINING on and off all morning courtesy of Invest 96 L. The long 
awaited rain arrived !  Yes!!! No whimpy showers that come and go so quickly 
they don't even touch the ground. This was saturation at it's height. It is 
forecast sto continue into Saturday. The Flash Flood watch has been  extended. 
The down side is that we have no electicity so this post will be sent when it 
does. (It just did!!} be well, be happy and may the good Lord bless you.

Isabel

Sent from my iPod!!.

- Rumbles & Flashes.......
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2014 20:52:16 -0500
some brief showers accompanied those and that was that. It seems to be all over, but not quite. There's still a lot behind. This system is moving fast, now at 25mph. Maybe tomorrow will clarify the existence of this disturbance, which is still expected to become a cyclone, 80% now, in five days. This is probably the beginning of a more active time in the hurricane season. Prepare, and stay prepared. Those of you following these systems from far away; thank you for keeping in touch, for reading the weather updates. God bless you and us all.

Isabel

- Invest 96L - Still Being Investigated
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2014 15:47:16 -0500
Good Afternoon!

After all this hoopla, are we really going to get some rain out of 96L? We have a Flash Flood Watch in effect from tonight Thursday to Saturday morning. It could mean a lot of rain, but then it can mean nothing. Time will tell. 96L has suddenly jumped to a speed of 20mph. We have been having a sunny/cloudy day so far. This morning we had a few heavy downpours that lasted a minute or so. Since then, nothing else. However, as VI Alert informed us, it arrives late tonight. Stay safe here, or wherever you are. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Invest 96L - Cyclonic Formation Possible
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 21 Aug 2014 07:10:39 -0400
Good Morning!

Regardless of formation, NOAA tells us in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico 
that we should prepare for gusty winds and heavy rainfall from tonight through 
Friday and perhaps longer. It is a broad system with a 70% potential of 
becoming the next name storm. Have a great day. May God bless us all.

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- Crucian Weather
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Aug 2014 19:02:08 -0400
Mon, dat is ah braahd mess ou' deh toh deh Eeas! Is dat goin toh beh de Nex 
starm..? Iz goin toh beh ruf! I hoep eh duz deh fizzle😝! Wee wan jus plain 
whata, noh haricane! Noh sah! Ah sarry foh dem peeple dong Saut. Eh look like 
deh goin get it bad. Deh wheda hieer is reeely hat! Deh sea whata is wharm. I 
whent foh a dip wid deh adder haf liate dis aftanoon. Mon, deh whata wuz suh 
wharm. Das haricane fiuul rite deh suh! I hoep das nat ah haricane farmin dong 
deh. Well, everibady, be preepare, okay? Gad bless yuh all..

Isabel
Your Crucian weather lady 😊 




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Sent from my iPod

- Invest 96 L looking like the next Name Storm.?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Aug 2014 21:29:31 -0500
Good night, All!

Here we are, a few days away from imminent impact with whatever 96L has in store. We may not even get rain out of it, but certainly some people are going to get more than their share of it. The wind was already near Depression stage, and the SST is warmer as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Talk about heating up. I got into my car around 1:00 p.m. to return home and the car thermometer above the dash board registered 108 degrees. I immediately had to think of the dear, small children being left in hot cars for hours!! A punishable negligence.

We shall all be tracking 96L, or the "C" storm the next days. Be safe and be sure to get everything in place and ready for action.Pay attention to the weather media  you follow. May God bless us all!

Isabel



- The "C" Storm - To be or not to be
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 18 Aug 2014 23:30:52 -0400
Dave thinks it can. Today was the anniversary of CAMILLE. We don't want a C 
storm like that !  The system in the Central Atlantic bears watching. It is 
arriving around here for the weekend according to NOAA. May God bless us all. 

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPod

- The Atlantic - Is Snoozing !
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 18 Aug 2014 00:41:37 -0400
It rained in "fits and starts" during the weekend, just as predicted. Out in 
the middle of the Atlantic, 95L is going through the same motions as the others 
- waxing and waning. Sometime during the upcoming weekend it should be in our 
area. It continues quiet out there and we are very grateful. May God bless is 
all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Tropical Wave
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 16 Aug 2014 06:58:38 -0400
Good Morning, All!

The remnants of 94L have arrived and are forecast to stick around today and 
tonight, perhaps part of Sunday as well. Good! We need whatever rain we can get 
out of these systems. We may not get anything out of the next two. Have a great 
day.ay God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPod

- Invest 95 L !!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 16 Aug 2014 00:00:05 -0500
There it is! Invest 95L ! Just as I thought. It is currently at 14.7N 19.6W   Moving WNW at 10 mph    Wind 35 mph

It probably will be a DEPRESSION in the next 24 hrs as it already has a 50% chance of developing into a cyclone.

However, IF it makes it through the dry air (SAL), which looks doubtful at the moment, it is going to pass above the islands, unless something changes that.

As for the remnants of 94 L, not a drop of rain so far. There is still hope for tomorrow Saturday. We shall see what happens.

For now, we must keep track of this new system 95L,and right behind it is another more vigorous one, that most probably with be another Invest tomorrow if not an outright Tropical Storm (my opinion!). Those two could very well be Cristobal and Dolly! No fear!
They will most likely get ambushed when they get into that dusty air.!

Have sweet dreams and may God bless us all.

Isabel



- When is it going to be labeled..?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 23:31:19 -0500


I was studying the Tropical Wave that's in the middle of the Atlantic, a Low Pressure System of 1010 mb. What does it take to call it an Invest? BERTHA was at 1012 when it became an Invest. Perhaps there's not enough convection, spin, and whatever other ingredient is required. Anyway, it looks like RAIN to me, and the one behind it as well. The computer models are not having anything "interesting" out there at least for another week when a certain system will move off the coast of Africa. Stay tuned. We're now at the peak of the season which lasts until the middle of October, according to Dave, I always thought it was shorter than that. Again, I must say, I'm glad that the Atlantic is not a clean slate. It's dusty. We would have had as many storms as the Pacific. They are already on their 11th with KARINA. So, give thanks to ABBA up there for the dust. We hope the waves reach us with some much needed rain. Be well, be happy, and be prepared. May God bless us especially today.!

Isabel

- The Ever Protective SAL
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2014 15:55:55 -0400
Hello there!  As you know 94L no longer exists as such. It got swallowed up by 
the mighty Storm Buster -- DUST !  Unless the tropical waves become Dust 
Busters we may not get much rain. When last did we get a good soaking rain that 
left the ground saturated, happy, and productive? Well, on our island it could 
be raining much more in other areas than in Christiansted where I live, but 
with the very brief showers we've been having, the drops don't seem to touch 
the ground! Of course, I'm exaggerating, they do touch and dry up right away. 
We need rain. Now, according to NOAA Radio, we should be having some "unstable" 
weather this weekend with the remnants of 94L. I don't see it on the Satellite 
Imagery. It's probably coming in as a "phantom", if it does. We've had those 
before. Right now we're having hazy skies courtesy of the Sahara. I must admit 
we've been having a lovely breeze today. I think we need to focus more on 
earthquake/tsunami preparedness. Last night's earthquake 30 miles west of St. 
Thomas was a 4.9 ! They're getting bigger! What would we do in case of such a 
scenario? May God bless us all.

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- Tracking 94L
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2014 11:31:27 -0400
Hello, Hello!

We can breathe easy as 94L now has a 0% chance of developing, that is , 
according to the NHC. Computer models still have it arriving here on Friday or 
Saturday as rain. At least I hope we get that. Don't know about you, but I plan 
to keep checking. There is another big one off the coast of Africa. It has not 
been mentioned. Let's pray that the SAL sticks around. May God bless us all.

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- Watching 94L !
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2014 14:44:28 -0500
Good Afternoon to everyone here and beyond!

Our weather here has been showery on and off since Sunday afternoon as predicted due to the weak Tropical Wave that is passing through. We should still feel some effects from it on Tuesday, however, it's not bad enough to keep anyone from enjoying the weather. You walk, you get wet, and you dry off soon enough. Let's call it Wash n' Dry Weather.

The system that's forecast to come in on Saturday will be akin to BERTHA on Aug. 2nd. According to Dr. Jeff Masters (read his blog on wunderground.com which can be found on this website), he said that some computers models out there have it developing into a hurricane before it reaches our neighborhood; others don't think it's going to reach that level of intensity, rather it will be more like BERTHA. As you recall, some people just went about their regular Saturday business without a care. BERTHA did not have what it takes. That was risky, though, as the winds were high at times and all you need is a piece of whatever to whack you on the head and that's that. Tropical systems, even if it's just a little Tropical Storm with a name, must be respected.

Now, there is the same battle going on with 94L and its current surroundings. At the moment it has dropped to a potential chance of formation in the next five days to 20%, that from 40%. That looks promising. Maybe it will dissipate all together and we'll just get some refreshing rain on Saturday. Great! We'll take it! But, don't let 94L fool you. Keep watching and tracking. Some storms have disappeared only to pop up later as something serious. Stay tuned. May God bless us all.

Isabel



- The Super Moon
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2014 00:21:51 -0400
Good Night, All!

I leave you with the Super Moon. Hope you saw it live. The best time to 
appreciate it's grandeur is at the rising. Perhaps we can catch the setting. 
That must be awesome too, however, there's a 50% chance of rain, and it may not 
even be visible. Surprises are always available with Nature though. Sweet 
dreams. Blessings,

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Invest 94L- Something to Watch!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 10 Aug 2014 18:56:12 -0500
Good Evening!

It is no surprise at all to hear that we have another mighty Tropical Wave with potential in the East Atlantic. At lunchtime, I caught the last words on the Weather Radio, "formation chance through 5 days 30%..", later it went up to 40%. The chances for the formation of a cyclone are looking good (bad for us) if this system continues to skirt the protecting Sahara Dry Air Layer (SAL) and has low wind shear in its path, it will be BIG. At the moment it has the perfect ingredients for it to grow into a powerful CRISTOBAL if it does. We must keep track of this system. When BERTHA was halfway here it measured 500 miles across at one point. Imagine if that had not disintegrated to a Tropical Storm by the time it arrived here with winds topping 50 mph with higher gusts. It would have been HUGE!

Lately, I've been watching Hurricane HUGO video footage, which we taped off of the various TV Network coverage in New York. We watched helplessly while HUGO approached St. Croix and islands before and after with winds exceeding the catastrophic level. The wind gauge at the airport broke at over 200 mph! It was a devastation of major proportions! This year is the 25th anniversary of HUGO, the hurricane of hurricanes! It took three weeks before we had any contact with St. Croix. I came down a month later to see family and settle insurance claims for our Condo back then and found the island with hardly any greenery where much existed before.

Dear readers, we CAN have another HUGO! Let's not be complacent. It is only because of the SAL that we are not yet half way through the alphabet. We really should take time to thank God that we are not being bombarded by storms at this time. I also noticed that there's a definitive track towards the Lesser Antilles as 94 L also is tracking. The ideal is for these systems to curve out to open sea and harm no one.

I suggest that besides praying we should make sure we have a plan in case we have to deal with a major storm this season. We might very well get through without anything worse than BERTHA, but still its wise to prepare for the worse until the season is over. Remember LENNY..? 140mph winds close to our South. That one arrived the middle of November, everyone thought the Hurricane Season was over! It ends on Nov. 30th and can even go beyond that. Stay tuned to The Weather Channel, the Weather Radio (NOAA), newspaper, and whatever other media you may have. Let's pray and hope that Invest 94L will be nothing more than a good rainmaker and just bring us some much needed rain. May God Bless us all!

Isabel


- Today's Sunset
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2014 19:37:14 -0400
Good Evening!  After this morning's stormy rain, we have not had anything else. 
I think it swept by fast and a bit more to the South. Perhaps the one on Sunday 
will bring more rain! We shall see! Anyone noticed the enormous T. Waves coming 
off the coast of Africa? Be ready! May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Twin Tropical Waves on the Way
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 8 Aug 2014 14:44:04 -0400
That's right! One is arriving later today, although we've had a preview this 
morning and it has been breezy and overcast ever since. The Satellite Imagery 
on this website shows othe T. Wave. There seems to be lots of convection with 
it and could very well be something to contend with later on. A second Tropical 
Wave is arriving Sunday into Monday. Actually, there seems to be a continuous 
train of "inclement" weather all the way to Africa. Looks like a wet weekend 
ahead. Rain or shine, it's always nice weather. Blessings!

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPod

- Nice Weather
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 6 Aug 2014 22:13:35 -0500
It's been quite nice, with scattered showers yesterday and today. We expect another tropical wave to pass by on the weekend. I hope it does not mess with anyone's plans. We still need lots more rain. The Saharan dust all over the Atlantic is still in place and until it clears, we should not have to worry about anything bigger than BERTHA. She was a breeze! A strong breeze, but nothing dangerous. However, it still does not explain why some areas had to go for more than 24 hrs without electricity.

Now, the Pacific, on the other hand, has no dust and therefore, they have their 10th storm (?) ! Both ISELLE and JULIO are going to affect Hawaii in some way or another. They are getting ready. We know the feeling of anxiety before a storm. I wish them well. May God bless them and us all.

Isabel

- All is Well
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 4 Aug 2014 12:04:22 -0400
BERTHA was on the way to becoming a hurricane when I saw the graphics this 
morning. Thank God it was gentle for us. We got some much needed rain. We hope 
to get some more soon. The Pacific is once more very active while the Atlantic 
is quiet, that is, unless the dust clears. Let's hope and pray that we get the 
rain without the storms. May God bless us all. 

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- BERTHA's Orchids
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2014 22:42:22 -0400
As mentioned on the previous update. This is a photo taken of the photo from 
another iPod, therefore, it may be a bit fuzzy. Blessings!

Isabel

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           BERTHA's Orchids 2014

Sent from my iPod

- Quiet Time.....
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2014 22:31:27 -0400
Until the next. BERTHA gave us some dramatic hours begin ing at three in the 
morning until midday. Power was knocked out until late afternoon, no Internet, 
no cell phones. We are very grateful for the soaking of the land that was so 
thirsty. The wind was very strong from time to time, but not strong enough to 
destroy the orchids on the tree, 

There is a large Tropical Wave in the middle of the Atlantic, but obviously 
there is nothing special about it to Investigate, as yet. If so, we shall be 
hearing about it soon. Be well, be happy. Have a nice Sunday and may God bless 
us all.

Isabel 

Sent from my iPod

- Stormy BERTHA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2014 13:44:41 -0400
Electricity has just now been restored after four and a half hours in our area. 
The wind has been howling and the rain has been pelting. It has calmed down for 
the moment. NOAA   
has more thunderstorms in the forecast for later. Will check back then. 
Blessings!


Isabel

Sent From my iPod

- RAINING PITCHFORKS !!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2014 06:00:16 -0400
It's coming down real heavy. We could get up to five inches of rain, according 
to NOAA. Will check back later. Blessings!

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- T.S.BERTHA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 23:54:49 -0500
There's a quiet breeze out there. Very refreshing. According to the CPA results the center of the storm should be here by 9:54.A.M. Heavy rain is expected and even the possibility of tornadoes. We are under a Tropical Storm warning. We all look forward to the rain. I hope that what NOAA Radio repeats will become a reality--RAIN! May God bless and protect us from tornadoes!

Isabel

- BERTHA on the WAY!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 17:26:03 -0500
Good evening,

I just checked the closest point of approach and the results are as follows:

16.8N  65.2W which brings it 69.3 miles to our South. The storm seems spread out, so I think we will be getting a good bit of rain courtesy of BERTHA. By tomorrow morning at 10:36 to be exact from the cpa  results, BERTHA should be in our neighborhood.

It has been very hazy and quite breezy all day. The haze has been the norm recently with all the Saharan dust in the air. However, that is what prevented BERTHA from forming into a BIG hurricane, and has prevented other tropical waves from developing. We have to love the dust, or...

How long is the dust going to stick around? We should check on this website and see for ourselves. The bright orange color is the dust, some times more than other days. If that lifts, we're in big trouble with all the tropical waves that are exiting the coast of Africa. Keep informed.

At the moment we're waiting to find out if the Primary Elections tomorrow Saturday are still on. We are under a Tropical Storm Warning and BERTHA is expected to show her "might" in the morning.

All the best to everyone out there. I'm planning to go out in the morning, but I have to judge according to the intensity of the storm. Rain is one thing, but a storm is another. We have to be extra careful. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Tropical Storm BERTHA
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 00:02:43 -0500
It formed tonight, a couple hours ago, and we're under a tropical storm Watch. The approx. closest point of approach (cpa) to us will be 95 miles to our south, on Saturday 1:42 p.m. I remember when HORTENSE passed 100 miles to our south, we had a deluge! At the moment our weather is quiet, but beginning Friday noon,  the wind should pick up. We shall be grateful to God for whatever rain we will receive from this system as it heads towards the Dominican Republic and beyond. NOAA is urging us to monitor it carefully. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- IS That You, BERTHA...? Or, Plain Old 93L..?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 19:14:54 -0500
Good evening, ALL!

I guess many of us are sitting in suspense. Are we going to get the RAIN? According to Dave we can benefit greatly from this system if it does come this way. It seems to be moving WNW now, so that should be in agreement with NOAA that it will arrive here in whatever form on Saturday morning, through Sunday. At the 11:00 P.M. update tonight, we should be getting the results of the Hurricane Hunters research today. The wind measured up to 55 mph, so as Dave says on his update, we should put away all loose objects outside, just in case. I will check back later. Remember, this is just the beginning, there are many tropical waves on the way. A huge one is just coming off the coast of Africa. Blessings!

Isabel



- Will She Skip Rope.?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 20:35:33 -0500
It has happened in the past years that some systems don't follow the rules, the steps, the phases. Now 93L is a tropical wave, the next step should be a tropical Depression, but in looking at the impressive satellite animated pictures this evening, I see it coming together. Is Bertha planning to skip to Tropical Storm immediately? That can happen. At this point I think most of us in the parched islands of the Caribbean are laying down the welcome mat for this system no matter in what form as long as it brings lots of rain with it. Before this day is spent, we shall see if BERTHA emerges, if not, it definitely will be tomorrow. We shall all be waiting with bated breath to see what 93 L will do next. I remember beckoning SANDY when it was a tropical wave, then just before the islands it started to drop to the south, then west, then up the Northeast Coast and the rest is history. Will BERTHA skip rope.? And is she coming this way.? We shall see tomorrow. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Another Beautiful Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 20:15:07 -0400
Visitors are arriving regularly. They know it's the hurricane season, we hope. 
These two systems in the Atlantic have been tracked well before they emerged, 
so anyone planning a trip here could check first. It takes one week, more or 
less, for a system to make it across. So, plan well. Blessings!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Tracking 93L
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 16:23:33 -0400
The first threat passed just below us. Not even a drop of rain. This one is 
tracking in the same direction and could pass either on top of us, or above us, 
or recurving out to open seas. This system is very large, so one way or the 
other we should be feeling some effects from it this weekend. It could very 
well recurve before it gets to the Island chain, as another report says, 
therefore, we have to monitor it carefully. Let's remain always prepared for 
the worse while hoping and praying for the safest outcome. May God bless us all.

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- Comparing '13 with '14
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 23:23:37 -0400
I can't believe it's been 4 days since my last post. It's been very busy and 
boring all the same without a change in the weather. Lots of haze, clouds, and 
very breeeeezy! Not a drop out of T.D. Two, so perhaps T. D. Three next week 
will bring some..? It's so dry that we are getting 3000 gallons tomorrow. How 
anything can actually bloom, gets me. The Flamboyant or Flaming Trees have been 
absolutely bright and beautiful; a treat for our visitors. The local yellow 
plums should be ripe and juicy soon, all they need is the sun and they've been 
getting plenty of it.

So, keep an eye out for T. D. Three soon to form with a 40% chance in the 
middle of the Atlantic. It should be affecting the Lesser Antilles by the end 
of this coming week, according the update I just heard. Be prepared. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- The Hidden Pelican
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 17:01:02 -0400
We are experiencing gusty winds from time to time, so much so that the pelican 
is scared and the iPod font size grew. No need to be scared, whatever is 
passing is passing. It does not look as if we are gong to get the 70% chance of 
rain, the stormy weather, now nor on Friday; by then it would have all passed, 
or..? I sometimes wonder what the position of the line indicating a tropical 
wave means. Maybe someone can explain it. In our case it seems to be 
approaching, yet just below us, the bulk of the rain is already on its way 
elsewhere. I just know that if we continue wishing and pining, the day could 
come when we cry, "enough already!". Both droughts and too much rain are 
killers. Just be thankful for what we have. Live the moment. Right now, I'm 
going be creative and do some housework and get this lack of rain off my mind. 
May God bless us always.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- The Remnants of T.D. Two....
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 15:49:43 -0400
Are moving west at 25 mph and is expected to affect the region tonight with 
gusty winds and showers. The wind has picked up considerably and heavy, dark 
clouds are slowly taking over. It looks promising for rain. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- T.D.Two will be going POOF...?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 21:46:07 -0500
That's great! At least we don't have to worry about it developing into a cyclone. And by the looks of it, we shall still be getting lots of rain.
We sure can use it.. That, according to NOAA should reach St. Croix by Thursday and Friday. Remember, there are many tropical waves on the way from Africa. Any of them, given the right ingredients, can become a cyclone. Let's remain vigilant and prepared for the rest of the hurricane season. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Tropical Depression two !!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 21:01:24 -0500
T.D.Two  Advisory 1

11.6 N     43.8 W    Wind speed 35mph  1012 mb   WNW at 16 mph

For us in St. Croix here is the result of my search based on our latitude and longitude: "The eye of the storm is about 1459 miles away. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph and directly toward you, it will take 91.2 hrs.(Friday, July 25 at 12:12 p.m. AST) to reach you."

Well, that was fast ! A Tropical Depression with room to grow. Let's hope that the space ahead will present some hostile, unfavorable conditions for formation of a bigger system, or else we may have something serious to deal with, so far most of the computer models has it coming directly at us. Prepare we must if we are not as yet.!! Monitor this system carefully!

May God bless us all,

Isabel



- Tracking Invest 92
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 19:33:37 -0400
While doing so we can enjoy the blessings of our beautiful weather. We just 
have to be aware that we are in the midst of the hurricane season and our 
priority should be to make sure we do not have to run around the last minute 
looking for material that is hard to find on that eleventh hour. This is an 
island, merchandise must be shipped in; before, during, and after a storm, 
especially a bad one, is no time to move around looking for food. Keep 
non-perishable food and drinking water in stock for emergencies. Remember HUGO! 
Perhaps I have to think of HUGO now because the BAMM computer model had it 
tracking the same route when last I checked. May God bless us all.

Isabel

 

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Sent from my iPod

- Eye of the Needle/ or of the Storm
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 14:59:47 -0400
Invest 92 is tracking in this direction. One of the computer models BAMM has it 
going right through us. The weather now is breezy and partly cloudy with always 
a chance of scattered showers. Please monitor this system. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- A TW to Watch!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 15:10:14 -0500
Our friends in Trinidad & Tobago are having some mighty fierce weather to contend with these days, however, the TW to the east could pose something even more threatening, so I think everyone there should make sure to be in a state of readiness. There is nothing to fear but fear itself, especially If everything is in place and there's nothing else one can do in the face of an oncoming weather challenge. Don't leave prayer, do so and hope for the best. We must remember always that it does not have to be a cyclone, a weather system with a name, just a fierce rainstorm can cause a lot of damage and even death if caught unprepared. Don't venture out for anything! Saturation by each passing TW eventually causes landslides, flash flooding, and the like that increases in intensity.

We have a very quiet day today with some hazy conditions. Rain is in the forecast, but it is not falling here, in my "neck of the woods". We can expect thunderstorms in the afternoon, but I don't see any sign of that as yet. However, the wave to the south(animated) has a push upwards in our direction that could eventually bring us some rain. One thing is certain, there are many TWs on the way. The Atlantic is definitely stirring. Let's keep an eye on it. Be well, be prepared, and may God bless us all.

Isabel




- The Atlantic "Stirs"
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 20 Jul 2014 00:20:09 -0400
That's the very latest word. To get the full story I suggest you read the full 
report at the very end of Dr. Jeff Masters blog on this website at wunderground 
now written by his colleague while he's away. Fascinating in depth reporting on 
what the Philippines and lands beyond are dealing with, and what's coming for 
us. Whenever the word "interesting" is mentioned by the weather experts, it 
usually means bad news. There's a lot of action between Africa and our islands, 
many "easterly waves" and the atmosphere is slowly becoming more conducive for 
the formation of storms. There is one particular wave on 30W that has to be 
monitored very carefully. Folks! In another 10-15 days we are going to be ripe 
and ready, wide open for the beginning of storms in our neighborhood. Let's 
hope and pray that we do not have to deal with a BIG one this year. May God 
bless us all and, if I were you, I would take the words of the Kitty Calendar 
seriously.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Can't Complain About the Weather
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 22:28:31 -0500
It's just great. We have the warmth, the refreshing showers, splashes of bright flora everywhere, that lovely breeze! Can we go through the entire Hurricane Season like this? Would be great, won't it! However, it is that time of year, and we do have to prepare, just in case. The only hurricane of the season might be the one that hits us!  So, prepare we must.!

There is a train of tropical waves in the Atlantic. Tonight into tomorrow we should get some rain from the one affecting the Lesser Antilles. Would be nice. Our lawn is brownish, but I don't think I want to spray paint it with that new green stuff that lasts up to three months. Let me have the rain! We definitely should be having more and more of it if those waves don't get blown away by the strong winds aloft. Let's take it a day at a time and thank God, may he bless us all. Have a good night.

Isabel

- Caught By A Cloud!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2014 23:57:00 -0400
The day was absolutely beautiful! Then late afternoon we went for a swim and 
while enjoying the perfectly clear sea, we noticed some very dark, threatening 
clouds approaching. It had been a long time since we had a rain swim and we 
loved it! Diamonds in the sea! After we left, it continued raining for a while. 
A 50% chance rain is in the forecast for Friday. Have a good night and may God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Tropical Waves
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 23:04:08 -0500
One, two, three, poof ! The dry air and strong wind are definitely not conducive to formation of a storm at this time. There are three waves crossing the Atlantic right now and one humungus one is just getting ready to take the plunge into the Atlantic.As they approach the island chain they disintegrate. See it in the animated screen on this website. That does not mean that some rain does not get through. It is very much what has been happening. Scattered Showers at night or during the day. They are refreshing and at least the plants get watered, even if it's not enough for the cisterns.I'm particularly concerned about the BIG tropical wave that's going to head this way and the Low pressure system behind it. Let's keep an eye on it. It's definitely getting more active and soon the dry air will disappear and the strong wind will die down, unless the El NIño kicks in and keeps things under control. We shall pray and see, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- The Amazing Sun/Son
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 01:18:14 -0400
Before I lay me down to sleep this night, I must share this image, which was 
seen by the whole World Cup world during the Final Game in Brazil. It was such 
a spectacular sight with the setting sun behind the famous statue of Christ the 
Redeemer, that the cameraman had to slip away from the game for a moment, not 
once, but twice. I managed to capture the image the second time with my iPod. 
What a treat for the world that was, a real blessing. Later, that night, 
according to the news, the moon also did the same! Scientifically, it was a 
larger moon, which happens only so often. That was a most graceful touch to the 
"best World Cup ever". May God bless us one and all.

Isabel

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The tropical waves are beginning to march across the Atlantic from Africa. I 
foresee a lot of action if the dust lifts and leaves the path clear.

Sent from my iPod

- Fantastic !!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2014 19:41:50 -0400
That word sums up the whole day thus far; and this afterglow of the sunset was 
like the icing on the cake! Day 43 of the 
Hurricane Season continues the way it should. A trough is in the forecast 
mostly for  Northeast of the Caribbean this evening into tomorrow. Does not 
look like rain any time soon.
This is only the middle of July; we have ample time to check our emergency 
supplies and replenish what we have. Now with the the World Cup out of the way 
we can focus on other things. What an exciting event that was for the World! I 
always say that the best team should win, but this time we definitely were for 
the winning team, the champions! It's all about family, friends. Fortunately 
the weather was good today for the Final. Be good, be well, be happy, may God 
bless you, the Champions, and the whole world.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- And The Day Passed...(see previous)
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2014 22:01:43 -0400
I went down to my Secret Garden. What peace and serenity. I wished that this 
hurricane season would not render us a blow as we have seen in the past. But 
each day is unlike any other; each season is unlike any other. We must prepare 
as if it will be a bad one while hoping that it will be gentle. May God bless 
us all. Have a wonderful Sunday.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- And The Day Passed....
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 12 Jul 2014 21:39:19 -0400
Into history, it went. No two days are alike. Weather wise this  day was 
different to yesterday's. Our day was certainly different and it ended with a 
poster picture to remember. The N Typhoon that impacted Japan is going to be 
picked up as a T Wave into a jet stream from Japan crossing part of the U.S. in 
a few days dropping the temperature....to the 60's? Weather is amazing! Now 
THAT is quite a change! I


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Sent from my iPod

- Strange -Kind -of -Weather
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2014 16:53:26 -0400
Dusty looking, heavy- ready to burst clouds that don't , suddenly windy, 
suddenly calm, sunny then not, anyway, whatever the case, I prefer this day to 
what Sao Paolo, Brazil had with torrential rains that caused such flooding as 
to "force thousands to flee" according to a Blip (Brief) in today's St. Croix 
Avis. The floods displaced more than 18,000 people in more than 100 cities. 
Tomorrow, Brazil vs The Netherlands for third place in the FIFA World Cup 
definitely will not be in Sao Paolo. The "sports arenas, schools, and other 
public buildings" are being used as shelters. I think they will still want to 
see the game, regardless. Soccer is in their blood, it goes with their Samba. 
They do both with great skill. What we need, nevertheless, is some of the rain 
that others are getting, some, not huge amounts. I noticed that the symbol for 
a (an) LPS was just off the coast of Africa, hopefully that disintegrates if it 
hasn't already. May God bless us all and help us to prepare well.

Isabel



Sent from my iPod

- The Indifferent Weather Cat
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2014 23:58:41 -0400
Hello, my name is Skypee. I'm an indoor cat, so I really don't care what the 
weather is outdoors. I get playtime if anyone has time to play, I get fed, I 
can sleep anywhere I want to, that is, except the "office" because I tend to 
push piles of papers and magazines and such to the floor, even though I tread 
carefully; you know us cats. My ears DO perk up when I hear heavy rain on the 
roof, like these days, or when a sudden wind stirs and the branches go crazy, 
otherwise, I could not care less about the weather. I'm good..

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That's Skypee alright. Quite an intelligent cat. And he knows he's handsome! He 
puts up with the Weather Radio and The Weather Channel everyday, and lately 
with the FIFA World 
Cup. He's indifferent , but so charming! God bless us all, especially those in 
Suriname who suffered a "freak storm" and Mexico which experienced an 
earthquake.

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- Typhoons and Hurricanes
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2014 08:06:07 -0400
They are the same under the category of MONSTERS. Japan has been battered by a 
Cat 4 Typhoon and at this moment is still suffering its effects. We know that 
we can also suffer the same, as we have in the past. It is wise and 
compassionate to pray for them in this time of need.ay God bless them and us 
all.

Isabel

"Practice kindness in all things "
(From the KITTY calendar )


Sent from my iPod

- July 7- day 37 - Anything Brewing?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2014 23:47:57 -0500
There is blob in the Atlantic between Africa and us. It has to
struggle through some dust, so that does not look like a likely
candidate for anything right now. We are having scattered showers
every now and then, that's when these "galleries" come in handy, to
escape getting wet, and also, to get some shade from the sun. These
galleries are part of the charm of Christiansted. Let's keep an eye to
the weather and be prepared. May God bless us all, especially the
birthday children of today, of which I know at least two.

Isabel

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- No Threat of a Hurricane(at the moment / Always a Tsunami Threat
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 6 Jul 2014 23:30:55 -0500
This evening we decided to see something else, other than sports, especially the Fifa World Cup. We saw the movie The IMPOSSIBLE, a true story about a family who experienced the Tsunami in Thailand where they were vacationing over the Christmas holidays in 2004.. In case you haven't seen it, those of us living in areas with a permanent threat of a Tsunami. See that movie. It left me shaking, Google the Tsunami in Thailand to see videos and get an even better idea of what that region suffered on the 2nd day of Christmas. Perhaps there are lessons to be learned. How does one prepare for such a catastrophe..!?. How does one prepare..? The 350,000 people who died in that Tsunami did not stand a chance. The earthquake that generated the 500mph Tsunami happened very far away. We know what we have to do in case of a hurricane, do we know how to prepare in the event of a Tsunami?

Two impressive tropical waves are on the way. One is in the sea and one is still on land; notice that they are higher now than those before. The dust will probably take care of them, probably. Visibility was down to 6 miles today Have a good night. Let's try to be ready for anything and may God bless us all.

Isabel.

- Hazy Sunset Courtesy of the Sahara Desert
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 19:14:47 -0400
We had a mixed bag of weather today, but all in all, it turned out just fine 
for the bride and groom at our parish this afternoon. At home we had an 
exciting World Cup day, the weather was excellent as far as I am concerned, but 
that last game with the Netherlands vs Costa Rica shocked the wits out of 
everyone who was sure that it would be an easy win for the Dutch. No way! They 
had to work for their money! It went to Penalty Shots and of course with a 
brand new change of goalkeeper for the Dutch, they won! I think the Costa 
Ricans can be very proud. They were really great!
As for the Dutch, good luck the rest of the way! As for us, in the Caribbean, 
may we have a safe rest of hurricane season with God's richest blessings. Have 
a good night!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- ARTHUR and The 4th....see previous
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 00:11:30 -0400
amazing and one of the best things I heard leading up to this day was that we 
should all read and study the Declaration of Independence. Great idea!

Our weather was mostly sunny and breezy, getting more so with tropical moisture 
in the area

Sent from my iPod

- ARTHUR and The 4th
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 00:00:36 -0400
Some folks had to cancel their plans for this day due to the hurricane, 
however, it could have been worse, like another SANDY-type? The fireworks from 
NYC and DC were great, the performances were just 


 

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Z


Sent from my iPod

- July 3rd - Scattered Showers
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2014 10:43:33 -0400
The first storm, ARTHUR, is now a hurricane heading up along the Northeast 
Coast. Certainly any holiday celebrations will have to be canceled in the areas 
most affected. Severe weather went through NYC last night, said my daughter, 
and there was flooding everywhere. That system had nothing to do with the 
hurricane; it came from the interior. We, on the other hand, are having 
scattered showers more frequently, which is great after the dry spell. A 
Tropical Wave is approaching on Saturday, and so it will be from now on. I hope 
ARTHUR has not opened " a can of worms". May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- A Quiet Hurricane Season....hmm
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2014 23:31:32 -0400
As we lay ourselves down to sleep this night, let us hope and pray that soon to 
be Hurricane ARTHUR is not going to start off a trail of storms. Here we are, 
in July, and already the first name storm will become, if it isn't already, the 
first hurricane of the season! And it is a "creepy, crawler"at that! It is 
finally now at 8 mph. Let's track the space between this one and the next and 
see if it really is going to be more active than predicted. Most important of 
all, hurricane preparedness should be high on our list. May God bless us all.

Isabel 



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    Taken at Shoy beach this evening.

Sent from my iPod

- ARTHUR, The first Storm on the First.
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 15:04:24 -0400
It could be a rather unusual 4th with Lightning and Thunder as ARTHUR makes its 
way up the Northeast coast! God bless us all and God bless America!

Isabel

Sent from my iPod

- So Far, So Good
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 07:10:19 -0400
Good Morning All!

My post last night was a wake up  call; my directions were way off! It must 
have been very late, however, there is a Tropical Wave to our east which is 
forecast to bring us some wet weather on Tuesday evening according to NOAA 
Radio. I suggest for those of you with interests in eastern Florida and the 
Bahamas to monitor 91L. Later on, the target could be the Northeast. Read Dr. 
Masters' blog about this system on stormcarib . Have a great day and may God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- June 29th--Disturbance 91 L to be Monitored !
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2014 23:04:36 -0500
ATTENTION PLEASE: Word from the National Weather Center is that the disturbance 91L has the potential to become a Tropical Depression by midweek. It has a high chance 60% of developing through 48 hrs and an 80% chance through 5 days. Where is it headed.? Southward to Southwestward off the east coast of Florida. The Bahamas has to pay close attention and if it continues moving Southwestward it can come in this direction. At the moment there are strong winds aloft blowing from west to east as has been the case for the last month or more. There is no keeping the disturbance from being swept up and through our area. Please take a moment to see the animated movement of 91L on this website, pay attention to all weather forecasts, and in particular to updates of this system. We don't want to be caught off guard. Though we usually expect our first threats to come from Africa, that does not always have to be the case. This can be serious. We definitely cannot, should not discard it as non-threatening as long as it remains active.

We have been seeing hazy skies, some very dark clouds at times, and an occasional shower. We would like more rain, but as this is typically our dry season, I'll be patient and wait for the rain to arrive; however, if 91L travels this far we shall have more than rain to contend with in the near future. Is everything in place? Do we have our emergency supplies. How about others who are not as mobile as we are. Is there, perhaps, an elderly, unattended person living near you that would need some help in the case of an emergency? Bring it to the attention of your nearest church, or to the Red Cross which is working with the Salvation Army to reach out to the most vulnerable via churches and other institutions, organizations, etc. or do whatever you can, we can, to help them. We can be their voices, hands and feet. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Visiting LENNY'S Entry Point
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2014 23:45:38 -0400
We had a wonderful time at the Friends of Denmark's Summer get together which 
has a long history. The potluck had ample delicious choices. We saw an 
interesting "dusty" sunset and threw our written "woes" into a bonfire as part 
of the tradition. I remembered that Hurricane LENNY came from the west bringing 
with it huge amounts if sea and sand and a buoy weighing about a ton was 
deposited in the ballpark located near the shore. Though the hurricane did not 
make landfall in Fredriksted, it was close enough to feel the impact. 

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We are all hoping for a quiet season.
May God bless us all.

Isabel


Sent from my iPod


- Quiet Time
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2014 23:03:17 -0400
More and more locals are heading out and away on vacation including my daughter 
and two grands who left today. So, now it's dry and quiet. We were amazed at 
the heavy rain which fell during the USA/GERMANY World Cup match in Brazil 
today.  It rained for nine hours prior to the game and there was serious 
flooding everywhere. That's definitely not the kind of rain I want to see 
around here. A simple, quiet rain is good enough. If we feel the need to keep 
busy talking,just remember what the Kittty  calendar says: 

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May God bless us all!

Isabel



Sent from my iPod

- Bougainville Weather
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Thu, 26 Jun 2014 00:29:23 -0400
Dry weather. The most beautiful time for the Bougies to shine. What amazing 
colors! Parts of the island especially flourish with this beauty where 
homeowners made it the prima donnas of their landscaping. Expertly shaped they 
are a sight to behold. The pink ones in my secret garden are allowed to grow 
and spread with some maintenance so that they do not take over. Rain for them 
is bad news, that's why they were happy today that the tropical wave was so 
weak that it did not drop a drop. The clouds threatened late this afternoon and 
the breeze stiffened, and that was that. We hope that the next T wave will 
bring lots of rain, the other trees and plants need it. So do we. May God bless 
us all

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPod

- Our Summer Weather
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Wed, 25 Jun 2014 00:52:57 -0400
It is also Autumn, Winter, and Spring with some slight variations. At this 
time, we expect more rain especially from the tropical waves coming from 
Africa. NOAA Radio tells us that one will pass through on Wednesday. Same 
system Ian wrote about...? There is a trail of dust behind it which will add 
some haze  to our sunshine, otherwise, we have perfect weather. This photo was 
taken in our lower (secret) garden. The old, old Divi-Divi tree has a large 
canopy, good for shelter from the Summer heat. Be well, be happy, and may God 
bless us all.

Isabel   

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Sent from my iPod

- Another Gorgeous Day
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2014 21:09:50 -0400
And a very busy Sunday it was too! Our Siamese cat, Skypee, was very happy we 
saw the USA / Portugal World Cup game elsewhere. Finally, some peace and quiet! 
(Not for long....) 

Blessings,
Isabel 

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Sent from my iPod

- Day 20
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2014 23:26:19 -0500
Summer is about to begin on the mainland. May it be a safe one. So far, there is more severe weather and more destruction there than here, yet there are people who are afraid to travel here at this time because of the hurricanes. Have no fear. Come on down. Enjoy the beauty of our island. At most, you will get a few showers which are much needed. The tropical wave I mentioned in my last post is still on track, but having a hard time.The westerly winds are very strong, pushing everything eastward. We are enjoying whatever breeze we get.Be well, enjoy your Summer! May God bless and keep us safe.

Isabel

- Anyone for Wet Weather?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 19 Jun 2014 22:46:55 -0500
There is a Tropical Wave approaching which should bring us "numerous" showers during Friday and overnight into Saturday. The chance of this actually materializing is to be seen as the winds aloft are so strong that they are battling the Wave not allowing to move ahead as it would. The animated frames, again, will show what it looks like, this battle. I would like the Wave to get through; we need the rain. This evening, until midnight, there was a Block Party in Christiansted courtesy of the Tourism Department, with Captain Morgan himself, parading on the Boardwalk, no doubt with his ladies. Music, food, shops, lots of fun sounds like. We did not make it there, but it's nice to know it was held and the weather was dry for that event. Such outdoor events do need dry weather. Be well, be happy, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- Evening Sunset
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2014 21:48:39 -0400
This evening while I was at a meeting, my husband took a picture of this 
beautiful sunset. It was heralding the heavy rain that fell an hour later while 
I was still at the meeting. It pounded on the roof so hard that everyone looked 
up in wonder. It had not rained for quite sometime, not that heavy. When it 
passed we picked up our stuff and left in a hurry just in case the 
thunderstorms I heard about this morning were coming next. We were all grateful 
for the rain.
Blessings!

Isabel

Sent from my iPod 

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- The 18th day of the Hurricane Season
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2014 22:16:01 -0400
A  smattering of showers was all we received from the two waves that passed by 
over the weekend. It's been very hazy.  We need rain. This sounds like the same 
song each year.   
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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One of four. They could use some rain. 


Sent from my iPod

- Rain..? Wow !
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2014 23:40:13 -0400
Well, some showers, but that was the most of wet weather in quite a while. I 
was hoping for some and I got some. Listening to NOAA Radio this evening I 
heard that there are two tropical waves approaching; one overnight into 
Father's Day (sorry..) and another on Monday. If it will be as said we should 
be getting some good rain out of those waves. Don't let the weather spoil your 
day. Work around it and celebrate anyway. Often at this time with the strong 
winds blowing west to east the waves don't have a chance of getting through. 
It's like a water truck that broke down on the way here. Soon we are going to 
see an increase of waves coming to our neighborhood. Somehow they are getting 
through the dust. Let's wait and see!  May God bless all the good dads on 
Father's Day and may the others learn from them. Have a Happy!  May God bless 
us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- Fruit Trees and the Weather
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2014 00:20:27 -0400
Sun and rain are the two ingredients that are of utmost importance to growing 
healthy trees and good fruit. This Sugar Apple tree is thriving even though the 
soil is not that rich, but it hasn't rained for a while and it can dry out. 
Lizzy enjoys resting on the branches, like in this case. You would have to find 
her. She's looking at you. I hope we get a good, soaking rain soon. It hasn't 
done that for a while. The strong upper level winds are blowing away the 
moisture. Check and animate one of the frames on stormcarib and you shall see 
what I mean. That's good for keeping storms from developing but bad as far as 
much needed rain is concerned. Have a good night and may God, our Father bless 
us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- A Perfect Dayl
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Thu, 12 Jun 2014 22:54:19 -0400
Let us prepare well for any emergency that could affect  us during these next  
6 months, while we enjoy each day. We had a beautiful day, hot, but with a nice 
breeze blowing. Lots of visitors in town. Brazil won the first game as was 
expected. It makes on wonder about referees... A beautiful sunset was the icing 
on the cake to end a perfect day. Thank  God we have relative quiet. May we all 
be blessed.

Isabel

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P


Sent from my iPodi

- Day 11 - Hurricane Season 2014
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2014 20:51:47 -0400
Quiet..Quiet..Quiet. That's the way I like it, however, it's only the 11th day 
of the H Season. For us, it's more like Aug/Sept. before we see threatening 
Tropical Waves developing into storms. Our first storm last year, GABRIELA, 
passed by during the second week of Sept. It was a mild season, that's why two 
years in a row would be unusual, especially with the crazy weather all over the 
world. Let's pray and hope for the best. May God bless us all.

Isabel 

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    Dark clouds today ---no rain


Sent from my iPod

- Find the Frigate Bird?
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2014 08:10:13 -0400
Once upon a time, long ago, when I was a child, we called the Frigate Bird, the 
"Weather Bird", because it often hovered high above as if announcing an 
imminent change of weather. It's tail opened and closed like a pair of 
scissors. This morning as I sipped my last bit of Blender Weight Loss Breakfast 
Smoothie, I spotted one solitary weather bird as I tilted my head up. Can you 
see it? Rain is in the forecast as "isolated showers" perhaps that is why there 
is only one bird "on duty". Weather is fascinating. The best part is that it 
cannot be controlled by man. Tornadoes and hurricanes can be stopped in their 
tracks, but man has not found the solution. It is up to each one of us to pray, 
be alert, and always obey the civil authorities to avoid personal catastrophes, 
and pray some more! May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- El Niño, El Wimpo, El Fizzle??
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2014 22:03:39 -0500
Well, well, well, does that increase the hurricane potential on a more frequent basis? El Niño was supposed to protect us from hurricanes. This could very well be the scenario that I feared, All we can do is keep track of the waves as they move off the coast of Africa and hope that nothing big forms. As a matter of fact, at the moment there are some very large waves coming off the coast. We need to look at our preparations. It's never too early. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- A Fuzzy, Wuzzy Day
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jun 2014 21:45:37 -0400
A good Sunday night to everyone! 
Nights are cool, but days are hot. When the haze hangs around it feels hotter, 
however, the sea is soooooo inviting. Many homes also have swimming pools, air 
conditioning, so one way or the other one can stay cool. And while we have 
quiet weather, in Arkansas where my niece lives it's another story. Winds of 
over a hundred miles per hour stormed through her neighborhood in Blytheville 
last Friday! That would be a category 2 storm for us. So far it's quiet here. I 
expect it to be quiet at least until August/September. And perhaps the whole 
season will be quiet. Only God knows! May we be blessed as we keep an eye on 
the weather.

Isabel




Sent from my iPod

- The Future--No Hurricane Season
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jun 2014 20:57:04 -0400
Due to climate change I understand that we can expect hurricanes throughout the 
year, eliminating the 6 month period from June to November.  That will 
definitely keep us on our toes. In addition, tornadoes are going to become the 
new norm. 

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We can sit and ponder this ghastly situation and pray it never becomes a 
reality. May the Holy Spirit renew the face of the earth and may God bless us 
always.

Isabel


Sent from my iPod

- The Future--No Hurricane Season
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jun 2014 00:14:45 -0400
Due to climate change I understand that we can expect hurricanes throughout the 
year, eliminating the 6 month period from June to November.  That will 
definitely keep us on our toes. In addition, tornadoes are going to become the 
new norm. 

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We can sit and ponder this ghastly situation and pray it never becomes a 
reality. May the Holy Spirit renew the face of the earth and may God bless us 
always.

Isabel


Sent from my iPod

- The 6th Day of the Hurricane Season
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Jun 2014 22:04:16 -0500

We got some real heavy downpours overnight, which is great as our pump has been leaking and most likely lost a good bit of our cistern water before we noticed. We always need rain and if it can come only at night, our visitors would have an even better time exploring during the day.

If El Niño fizzles it could be that we are going to have a stronger season than predicted, or not?. I thought strong winter, could indicate a strong hurricane season. We shall soon find out. Pray, prepare, and May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Goodbye, brave Pooch!
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Thu, 5 Jun 2014 15:08:43 -0400
This morning we said goodbye to our pet---the dog who would be a rabbit, 
therefore, got the name "Bunny". So named by his owner, our friend, who left 
him in our care several years ago before he died. Bunny was 85 in human years. 
So, on this fine day, blue sky with white puffy clouds, he left us and I can 
just see him in that beautiful place destined for humans and animals where pain 
and old age, hurricanes and tornadoes, disasters and wars are no more. Bunny, 
unlike his brother, who went years earlier, was not afraid of thunder; a brave, 
amazing dog, who blind as he was, saw his way around. We are going to miss him 
as some of you out there can understand. May God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPod

- The runaway post last night.......
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 4 Jun 2014 19:09:58 -0500
Did not allow me to add the text to the African Tulip tree..(previous post/photo).

Hello, again!
It so happens that that tree was self-planted. We thought it was a Guava at first, but our friend, an expert gardener, identified it as an African tulip; And so it grew and grew, buffeted by all the troughs, tropical waves, storms, and hurricanes that went by. Every storm did some pruning. We saw how the branches went flying during Omar's fury four years ago. My husband tried to cut it down halfway twice during its lifetime, for the sake of the view, but before we knew it, it was back up again, same height. If a tree is meant to grow to 75 ft., it will, no matter what. It has had an abundance of glorious blossom, Tulips, which are the size of coffee cups, which fill with rainwater for the birds. We've seen them high above, taking a drink. The birds also like to chase each other through the branches. They use it for singing their hearts out, they let out the most interesting bird calls, and are very entertaining. So, the African Tulip Tree expects to stick around no matter what happens this hurricane season. After all, it has been permanently rented by the birds for more than ten years. Let's enjoy the days and the beauty that surrounds us. Take time to breath, to live each day to its fullest, prepare for what may come, and be mindful of those in need. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- The African Tulip tree and the Weather
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Tue, 3 Jun 2014 23:21:42 -0400

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Sent from my iPod

- St. Croix Prepares
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Mon, 2 Jun 2014 23:50:57 -0400
As you see from the newspaper we are doing everything possible to instruct the 
population here about hurricane preparedness and other disaster rescues. We 
have to know what to do or we will be totally lost and personally devastated. 
We see it on the news all the time. I am hoping and praying for a truly quiet 
time. I'm sure you are too. All the best to everyone, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPod

- A Safe and Very Happy Hurricane Season to All !!
  • From: isabelcerni at gmail.com
  • Date: Sun, 1 Jun 2014 22:50:21 -0400
Hellooooooooooo, Gert, Dave, Caribbean Correspondents, and Stormcarib friends 
around the world!

I am happy to be back, happy that we are being promised a "quiet" hurricane 
season, and just plain happy!


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A week ago I attended a "Preparing Together" meeting at the Red Cross Center. 
With the collaboration of the Salvation Army a new initiative is being made to 
help the most vulnerable in the community in case of a disaster. It requires 
the cooperation of everyone in the community to be attentive to the needs of 
the elderly and physically challenged population, the most vulnerable, in the 
event of a disaster.

Preparedness, in general, refers to everyone. We have to start stocking up on 
non perishables, we're already late! Two storms have been predicted between 
June and July, could be far fetched, but then, maybe not. So, let's not have 
leaden feet and get moving! The El Niño effect  may not be in place, to help 
eliminate the storms, until late in the season. In the meanwhile, let's get 
ready. Enjoy the flowers, like those of the golden/ orange Flamboyant tree in 
our garden, and the fruit of the season (for us at the moment, only the Mesple 
and local red plums are ready for the picking, before long our Sour Sap, Sweet 
Sap, Sugar Apples and local Yellow plums should also be ready.)

A hurricane season can be a happy one if we are not hit with a disaster. So, 
let's pray, and may God bless us all!!

Isabel 


Sour Sap is five times more effective that Chemo Therapy. It kills cancer cells.





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Sent from my iPod 


Sent from my iPod

- Update
  • From: 9123081512 at mms.att.net
  • Date: Wed, 28 May 2014 13:47:48 -0500 (CDT)
Good Afternoon from East STX.  Since 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts in 
only 4 days, being prepared by testing that my reports will post if we are TC 
is headed our way.  

Time now to finish preparations..

Cordelia

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