- Updates from the Islands -

- - St.Croix (USVI) - -

- EARL'S Glancing Blow!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 16:44:12 -0500

Good Afternoon!

I can finally write again since EARL'S glancing blow! What a horrific event that was for us, even though he did not pass close to us. We are 40 miles from St. Thomas and it felt as if EARL was right here. We lost electrical power at 4:30 p.m. on Monday, and did not get it back until 6:45 a.m. the next morning, From then on it was on and on. It's been on for a long time now, thank God. Many people are without power since EARL reached the closest point to us on Monday evening. In the morning we had a break in the weather, but were told to get back inside before noon because from then on we were going to get the brunt of the hurricane as it reached its closed point to us. Did it ever! What a force of nature! It is something worthy of respect. The force of the wind was incredible! The rain, --a deluge! That lasted well into the night. We were able to receive cell phone calls until a certain point. Then both cell phones and some land Iine phones were both down. The internet was down. It's frustrating when you have to reach someone locally and cannot do that by any means whatsoever, unless you drive there, and that was being discouraged by the authorities because of the debris on the roads. Some people were without access to their potable water service. Problems galore! How well we appreciate basic things when we don't have them, like water from a faucet; it can be so easily taken for granted.

Early this afternoon, FIONA brought some heavy, flooding rain to an already saturated ground. There has been a break and at this moment it looks as if we are going to get another round of activity. Fortunately, she was gentler, but that could be thanks to EARL who took the wind out of her. She just could not catch up to him and ran out of steam. Lucky for us!

We are now waiting to see what GASTON, when he develops, is going to do. He probably will be another EARL by the looks of the system right now. Computer models has it passing pretty much in the same direction as EARL. As of now, we are in the "cone of uncertainty". It would not be surprising if that system enters the Caribbean, or at least passes lower than the projected path, directly over the islands this time. We must wait, watch, and pray! Monitor, monitor, monitor!

In the meanwhile, parochial schools had one week of school, then three days off courtesy of EARL. The public schools were supposed to open on Monday; it seems they will do so finally on Thursday. Monday is Labor Day, and with it comes GASTON! That is the projected arrival time of this storm/hurricane by that time, that can be earlier still or later depending on the speed. Someone told me this morning that it's expected to arrive on Saturday! According to Dr. Jeff Masters, it is more like Monday. We must keep an eye on this system which is already a Depression as of this morning. I wonder, are the children ever going to be able to attend uninterrupted classes before December? That is the question!

As for the folks on the mainland, especially along the coast, if you're told to evacuate an area, do so immediately! In my mind, I'm seeing the many times, people refused to leave because they felt they could handle the situation, and they ended by losing their lives. The same goes for our islands here, though, I think islanders have more respect for these hurricanes than people on the mainland. "We live and we learn", goes the saying, but how many hurricanes does it take to really learn?
We have to learn with each one and remain prepared during the rest of the season. God bless us all!

Isabel

Will try to send some EARL pictures soon.

- Good Afternoon!!

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2010 10:11:21 -0700 (PDT)

I had every intention on posting this morning after I hung up the telephone with the hubby, but got caught up in the rat race of town! All is well on the east end. On generator still, so no electricity, no Internet, no cell service or cable :( He drove to work via south shore road and he said that he did not see any power lines down at all, which is wonderful. I asked him about cleaning up outside and he said it would be minimal at most. All cats accounted for just like Jill's post too with all of her kitties...I always wondered how they managed, but I guess the little critters have their hide spots all over. They showed up hungry late last night and this morning too! I called the gas company this morning to beg for a truck of propane since were are "low" and they told me next week. Crossing my fingers that WAPA comes back up before we run out of gas for the generator. I will just keep calling and maybe they will show a little mercy on me. So, other than being low on propane for the generator and having to eat dinner via candles, all is good on the east end!

Watching Fiona closely and it looks like St Croix might just get more rain. Our cistern is now at the tippy top!!!! I am so excited!! No offense water man!! Again, please pay attention and keep your eyes open. It looks like there is yet another invest after Fiona!!

Susan

- Hurricane Earl ... GOODBYE!

By Heygirllll at aol.com
Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2010 09:02:04 EDT

Phewwwww ... happy to see Earl make his exit. I hope everyone survived with no major damage.

We spent part of our last minute preparation herding cats, they didn't seem to mind being herded, what a surprise! They're outdoor cats, formerly feral, now tamed and named. We put a couple in the shed, a few in the garage, and made a "cat fort" on the back porch. All are present and accounted for today, was relieved to see Fat Albert come up from the bush for breakfast this morning.

I expect we'll make a 2nd "cat fort" on the front porch next time.

I feel very fortunate, we only lost power for about an hour at 6:30 a.m., cable TV (Innovative) was off and on (better than I expected), had our internet connection (BBVI) the entire day as far as I noticed. Very happy to have had minimal interruptions to our "modern-day conveniences"! We live mid-island, Constitution Hill, facing the south, so we probably didn't get nearly as much nasty weather as other parts of the island. Looking around the yard, mostly lots of leaves and small branches to clean up, and a pool that is looking rather swampy ... won't be going for a swim today!

~Jill~

- looking like in the clear for now

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 21:08:49 -0700 (PDT)

Well, I spoke again to my husband at 10pm EST and poor thing was sleeping, exhausted from the days activities of trying to keep the water out of the house. (wind was blowing from west and southwest, and our balcony faces in that direction, so quite a mess) So, as of 6pm, it was very dark he said and was still raining very hard with gusty winds. Kitty cats showed up though soaking wet for a quick snack....I always wonder where those little critters hide out when the weather gets so awful...maybe the pump room for the pool?? Anyway...so at 10pm, no more rain...looks like the last band had finished up. He said winds were still pretty gusty, but bearable. No electric, cell, cable, or Internet, only land based fone lines. I will post more in the morning when he wakes and ventures off to work at 6am. He travels south shore road all the way mid island, which I am sure took quite the beating. Now, Fiona...I tried to get a flight back home tomorrow so that he doesn't have to deal with all of this again on Wednesday and American is totally sold out until Saturday...so, here I sit in Louisiana relying on fone calls to home to get updates. From what I can tell Fiona should track north of us, hopefully way north...but the tracks are all over r the place again. I hope Anegada is okay. There is a fantastic restaurant on the south shore, Whispering Pines, that has the best lobster dinners ever with the nicest people. My prayers are with everyone there as well as in the rest of the BVI's, St. Thomas, St John, my island and also down island. Please stay safe! I have received a bunch of emails today from people saying that they had family in St Croix and have not heard from them and they said thank you for the postings. This is a volunteer website and I feel so grateful that I can help make people feel at ease with the information that I receive. I am just so sorry I do not have pictures to post (I have our camera with me off island) Hang in there everyone, Internet is down all over and cell service is nill to nothing, but if you can call them on a land line that might work the best!

More tomorrow when the cleanup begins as we all pull together to help each other out!

Good night,

Susan

- Hanging in there

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 12:45:24 -0700 (PDT)

Another update for east end St Croix..

Just spoke to the hubby and he said it is still raining hard. The water has started to come into the house via beating on the door and seeping thru the bottom of the door. Looking like lots of washing machine loads tomorrow. So, rain pouring in from the south. No electric, internet, cell service anything since 12pm. I am listening to Paradise 93.5 online to check on things and they appear to be having a good time reporting, to lighten the dreary afternoon happening. Cassandra from WAPA said that NOT all of the feeders are reporting out on St Croix. Feeders 2, 3, 9 and 10 are reporting out. Others are up is what I heard right now. Checking the site with Ms. Mermaid's posts, it looks like Tortola and the beautiful BVI's are definitely getting the brunt of the storm. Anegada, which is gorgeous on Loblolly Beach sounds like they really are struggling, not good. Looking like about another hour of this mess and then some relief in sight. Stay safe and I will post in a bit if I can get the hubby to talk to me. Not sure if I will ever go off island again during hurricane season....I think he is none too thrilled to be mopping up water in the house without me to help

- TORRENTIAL RAIN courtesy of Hurricane EARL!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 11:55:09 -0500

Good Afternoon!

EARL is now in the vicinity of the US Virgin Islands. We are having heavy rain with whiteout conditions; very windy, a veritable hurricane! EARL is making sure we get a share like all the other islands. Everyone was preparing for this, it was announced over and over again, it was discussed, warnings were out for flash flooding and just about every detail was covered. We could get as much as 12' of rain. This should go on for a couple of hours. I will post later with an update on conditions. God bless you.

Isabel

- Little break

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 08:55:44 -0700 (PDT)

Just spoke to the hubby again. He said right now, not raining, the wind speed is at 4mph and the electricity is back on! Wow, that is awesome. I must correct my post before that he told me that ther ewas a power line down on S Grapetree Drive. It is trees / brush in the road, the power line is not down. With the hurricane just being upgraded to a cat 3, I think the brunt of the storm is just about to begin on the island. I will post again later! Please stay safe and although things look fine right now, please please be aware that the worst part has not even begun yet for the island of St Croix!

- Here he comes

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2010 05:54:54 -0700 (PDT)

One of the good things for me is that I am off island, but the husband is on island! I just tried to reach him via cell, no answer, at work and no answer, then at home...yeah he answered!! Thank goodness he had the regular fone plugged into the jack. So, on the east end in Grapetree, no electricity since about 4am, raining hard right now coming down in sheets he said. Wind gusts on the meter on the balcony are reading gusts at 60mph, steady at 29mph. He said that he can see a power line across the road down on S Grapetree Road in the neighborhood, so not sure if the pole snapped or a tree fell on it. Cell service is out and also Internet too on east end. I gave him the report that the storms closest point will be 107 miles away at 5pm, so this is definitely going to make for a long afternoon. I will call him in a bit to get another report and I will post. I am so nervous for everyone knowing how dangerous these storms can be. Omar in 2008 was terrible on the east end :( It is so hard to be gone. Please pay attention to NOAA radio for any updates and as I get them for the east end I will certainly post too.

- Monster EARL!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 23:03:23 -0500

Good night! Sleep tight!

EARL is growing into a monster size hurricane! He probably will be a Cat 4 by Monday evening! This hurricane is doing things unseen in other hurricanes. I wonder if he is setting a trend. The SST is so warm that it's driving him nuts. We're in for something big, especially if we closer. I have been following NOAA Radio on and off all day, they are urging everyone to rush to completion any preparations still necessary. I understand that 97L, soon to be FIONA, is going to be here on Wednesday or Thursday. That's a lot of battering to take in one week! The wind out there is howling right now. We've had some very strong gusts. The dogs (brothers) are out on the deck enjoying the stiff breeze, as long as it's not raining and thundering, they're fine. According to NOAA we should start getting some bands of heavy rain after midnight. However, I noticed that EARL has slowed down somewhat, that could mean that those bands of rain will not arrive until much later. Whatever the case, this system is packing a lot of rain. Most of it was to the south, but EARL is doing some strange wobbly stuff, maybe it's the Regaeton! Let's see what tomorrow brings! Won't that be something if the sun is shining in a perfectly blue sky? It does not cost anything to dream. As a matter of fact, I'm off to bed right now. Good night and God bless us all!

Isabel

- EARL is Watching Us!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 18:33:38 -0500

Good Evening!

I hope our neighbors on the island chain are faring alright. EARL looks like a little monster looming over the little gems in the sea. A local friend just informed me that we are in the clear, but as long as we are under a watch/warning, we are not in the clear. Those have to be lifted. They cannot be lifted until EARL has made a definite move to take all the threat of inclement and dangerous weather away with this system. Just the other day we got a heavy rainfall on parts of the island courtesy of DANIELLE and everywhere it was flooding. That was just a short rainfall. EARL could drop a much at 8 inches in some parts here, 12" in PR.

On NOAA Radio it was announced that schools will be closed tomorrow, that's when we should be getting the heaviest weather. EARL has slowed to 14mph, that again is another factor to consider; an eye is forming and it is slowing down. The means it is getting stronger. I'm sorry for anyone who may have to contend with EARL later this week. We, on the other hand, will probably have to deal with FIONA if it develops into a named storm. Even as a Depression it can bring torrential rain, and we know that water can be more dangerous than wind.

We have closed most of the important shutters; secured garden furniture and picked up anything that can fly. Now, we are watching EARL and he is watching us, and FROM A DISTANCE, God is watching us, so sings Bette Midler! Let's keep watching and stay safe. God bless you.

Isabel

- Hurricane EARL - Westward

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 14:21:26 -0500

Good Afternoon!

I've been noticing that EARL has not moved any higher. It's stuck between latitudes 15 and 20. He looks like a giant pinwheel heading in this direction. So far, we continue to have a wonderful breezy afternoon, the sea is very choppy, the clouds are gathering more by the minute. We don't expect to see anything in the way of rain until much later. The children get all excited about not going to school tomorrow, even though they enjoy school. When we tell them that they will have to make up the lost day, their excitement gets deflated. It still remains to be seen whether the schools will be closed tomorrow. We usually have to wait until the very morning to hear it on the radio. According to the information we're getting, EARL is moving WNW, but that is not what's happening. Maybe it will really wait a couple of days before turning to the northwest. That being the case we should be in the thick of it. I'll report back later. God bless you.

Isabel

- Earl

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 09:04:23 -0700 (PDT)

Good Morning!

I feel awful that I am off island as Earl approaches the islands. From what it looks like Earl might turn out to be quite nasty. I spoke to my husband yesterday and he said that the seas were very flat and there was absolutely no wind on the east end. I am waiting to speak to him this morning to get an update again. Once I get in touch with him, I will certainly post. He appeared to be not too concerned about the approaching storm, which hopefully by now he is checking this site and the few others that I always check when I am home. He was suppose to make a run to Cost U Less for some much needed groceries / supplies, so maybe he is in prepare mode and he is not letting on as to not worry me while I am away! Please everyone stay safe and always stay aware as things seem to change at the drop of a hat at any time. Looks like a very long Monday is in store for the island as Earl approaches tomorrow evening with a nice nasty punch of 90mph winds.

Talk soon!

- EARL is Around the Corner.

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 06:06:16 -0500

Good Morning!

Conditions currently are becoming overcast and quite breezy. From the sound of the wind chimes on the porch those will have to be taken down soon. The sunshades will not be necessary, and I don't think the birds are thinking of a bath at the moment. They are probably preparing their place of refuge. Where DO the birds go in the event of a hurricane?? Good question. Hope someone can answer it. All I know is that after HUGO, which devastated all the Flora on the island, there was not a bird to be seen or heard for a few days. It was eerie; no flora, no fauna, no roofs, no electricity, but praise the Lord, there was life! Everyone lived to tell all about it and still do. I will check in later to report on conditions which are definitely going "downhill" with the approach of EARL. Have a wonderful day. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Watching EARL!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 00:16:11 -0500

A Good, Restful Night to All!

EARL has everyone in suspense. What is he going to do now! He is not following the rules. So, here we are watching and waiting. EARL is very large and already he's reaching out to the folks in the chain of islands. Will he continue going West? or will he make that NW turn? Tomorrow we'll get a better idea. I hope that we can still celebrate my cousin's 70th birthday. He was recently diagnosed with Cerebral Palsy and is none to happy. I'm planning a scrumptious meal to celebrate. Our weather should only start getting rough on Sunday night.

We went to Shoys Beach, for a noontime swim. The sand was so hot, we raced into the sea. "A thing of beauty is a joy forever"' There we were in the most beautiful turquoise water, then it was a sparkling emerald green! We felt so blessed to be able to have such a beautiful beach, so near to us, to share with so few people while in Italy it was reported that the beaches are so very crowded; it's wall to wall people. Actually, that goes for many other parts of Europe. The sea is also warm besides being so tantalizingly beautiful. That's why EARL has his "eye" set on it. When I checked a while ago, it did seem to be forming an "eye". It is strengthening! That deep red convection, which a weather blogger describes as "a colonoscopy gone bad" has increased and though NOAA Radio says we can expect 3 - 5 inches of rain, I think it'll be lots more. I guess the Department of Education will have another week off, and with the next storm also heading here, it could be quite a while before they have their first day of school. My grandchildren have one good week behind them already.

Sunday is the Lord's Day-(every day in my book), let's pray that we can remain safe throughout this hurricane season. God bless us all. Be well, be happy..

Isabel

- EARL -Tropical Storm Watch in Effect!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2010 19:00:42 -0500

Good Evening!

The track of EARL is still "uncertain", but as this storm has been rather sneaky, dropping to the south as it did, and not following the forecast models' paths, we were put under a WATCH, to make sure that we do! We are to expect deterioration of the weather from Sunday night. EARL will either be on top of us or bypassing us to the north on Monday anytime from noon on. It seems to be a very large system. It should cover a broad area. It is expected to become a hurricane perhaps by Sunday.

Behind EARL, there is the next system which already has an 80% chance of becoming FIONA very soon. Computer models have her following the same track as EARL, if she chooses to. Ha! What if she doesn't like EARL! Behind that one, is the next system just off the coast of Africa, which will be GASTON if it develops; and the very big one that's still on the continent would be HERMINE if it develops. Ever since HUGO we are wary of the "H" storms.

The mainland is on notice now, as these next storms should make it across. Five named storms are predicted to make landfall along the coast. All we can do is pray that these storms do not become too devastating. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Re: EARL'S TRACK

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2010 23:13:47 -0500

Midnight Greetings!

The track of EARL is "uncertain at this time" . Some weather bloggers have been noticing a move southwestish. I notice a lot of Saharan dust in the vicinity. EARL does not like dust. He is trying to dodge it by moving downwards and definitely on a westward path. There is a good chance that EARL is going to impact one or more land masses. I think he's upset about DANIELLE. He might just decide to stay somewhere and wait for FIONA who should get her act together at any moment. There's is a chance that those two could join forces and have a "common center". Has that ever happened before? When? Let me hear from someone out there.

Those who care are watching, with an intense passion, as EARL does his thing in the middle of the Atlantic; they are visualizing a dramatic approach to the Northern Leewards islands. In a couple of days we shall find out. Perhaps a more certain track can be established. In the meanwhile, get things ready just in case. EARL is gearing to strengthen and will be doing so before it reaches our neighborhood. Perhaps we'll wake up in the morning to find out that EARL "high-tailed" it and went after DANIELLE. Hang in there and keep watching! God bless us all.

Isabel

- FIONA is Getting Ready for a Grand Entrance!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:11:41 -0500

Good Night to All!

Believe it or not, tonight 97L has a 60% chance of becoming FIONA in a couple of days, if not sooner. With each one that emerges from the African Coast, the possibility of having a hurricane impact the islands becomes greater. The forecast models are sending them all up and away, for the moment, but that cannot continue for much longer. Behind wanna be FIONA is the next one in the alphabet, GASTON. There's no end in sight.

EARL is moving "westward"--towards us. This track is suppose to change before it gets here, but the drop to the south during the day will bring it a lot closer than was predicted when it started out. We have to really keep an eye on it and prepare for the worse, for this one or the next. Ready or not, they are coming!

Tonight, at 11 p.m., I "happened" to be up and the Weather Channel "happened" to be on when Storm Stories began about the filming of Jurassic Park and how five weeks into the filming a trough picked up Hurricane INIKI and slammed it into the Hawaiian island where the crew worked on this film. It was a horrendous experience to see roofs being blown off, the sea which was beautiful and calm before was now roaring; angry, with the waves growing in height by the minute. The devastation on the island left everyone speechless. All the beauty that once was laid totally destroyed. IT CAN HAPPEN TOMORROW anywhere in the Atlantic during this hurricane season. Prepare well. God bless us all!

Isabel

- DANIELLE'S Veil

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:34:56 -0500

Good Afternoon, folks!

I interrupt my siesta to inform you that if EARL catches up to DANIELLE, there will be a cyclonic wedding. DANIELLE'S veil is over and around us. Somehow, I don't see the match happening, though, and EARL could be waiting for FIONA instead. But what if she fooled him and is appearing somewhere in the GOM? Who knows, that is, except for Dr. Jeff Masters who seems to think that all of the future storms to develop in the Atlantic will go the way of DANIELLE. We are having sprinkles every now and then, but the weekend is when we should see some real rain out of this system. It's hard to believe that this is the rainy season, or maybe I have it all wrong, perhaps it only starts in September? It has been a rather confusing hurricane season thus far, especially to those folks who don't count the ones that stay out to sea. If it does not hit them, or come close enough to bring torrential rains, somehow it does not count. Well, thank God, it's been quiet for us. See what the poor folks in other parts of the world have had to suffer with no end in sight. We definitely don't want anything to go close to Haiti where so many people are living in tents. So, let's just be thankful and pray that we don't get hit by a major one down the road. And keep smiling! It's good for you and those around you. They'll smile with you even if they don't know what you're smiling about.! (Or maybe not.) Enjoy the weather, whatever it's doing. God bless you.

Isabel

- TS EARL Soon to Become a Hurricane

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2010 22:36:28 -0500

Good Night, Folks in the Caribbean and Beyond,

At this moment we're probably all doing the jitterbug, wondering if Tropical Storm EARL plans to move closer to the islands. Some of the islands are already in the "cone of uncertainty". This is when we have to be most attentive. Storms are very unpredictable and EARL is aiming to become a hurricane in the next couple of days. There is nothing to prevent it from growing in intensity. What does that mean for us here? It means that we must take this seriously and keep an eye on it while we go about making those last minute preparations. It should have some kind of impact on us by Tuesday morning. The size of the impact depends on how close it gets to us. We have to use all the media at our disposal to follow the track of this system. Hopefully we can all let out a sigh of relief instead of battling with what could be a major hurricane. The sea temp. is in the 80's. Just today, while swimming, we were commenting on how very warm the sea felt. Here is an excerpt from my report: HURRICANE HUGO - A Night on St. Croix
"Scientists tell us that hurricanes get their energy from the warm sea; that the storm needs at least a 200 ft. depth of warm water in order to live. This water in turn is churned about, picked up, and lashed out with tremendous fury. The result of this is similar to a fire storm. The combination of hot air and salt water blowing at *245mph burned every living bit of flora on St. Croix. The islanders said it looked as if fire had swept over the land; when it was over, steam was emanating from some areas of the scourged land; war veterans said it was like a bombing raid at low altitude, and that it was worse than anything they had ever seen..... The destruction was terrible! Many trees were uprooted and bare, many of them hundreds of years old. Only a few remained standing, stark-naked and strange-looking in a place known for its abundant, rich, luscious vegetation." *The wind gauge at the airport broke at 245 mph.

All around the region the sea is warm enough to supply the fuel for all the storms that form off the coast of Africa. Are we prepared to handle the challenges? How can we not but take these storms seriously? Prepare well and God bless us all.

Isabel

- A Parade of Storms.?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2010 10:44:12 -0500

Good Morning!

TD#7 is now 100% ready to become EARL! According to the experts and forecasts models he should be following DANIELLE, but don't count on it. Monitor the storm and see if they are right or not. For us in the Caribbean it would be great if they all passed by. We are having such beautiful weather today. Yesterday's dust bowl lifted and the sky is blue with patchy white clouds. The breeze is enough to knock one out into a very pleasant 100 yr. sleep.,--in a hammock, on a shaded porch. The wind chimes are chiming; an occasional sound from the rest of the world can be heard. It is peaceful and everything is blooming, including everyone who allow themselves to bloom and be happy. Let's keep watching and informing the uninformed. Some people have neither newspaper, nor radio, nor TV. Normally they won't be missing anything much, but at a time like this they need to be informed.
Mainland friends, remain alert for the rest of the season! God bless us all.

Isabel

- Storm Watch Duty

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2010 00:43:32 -0500

Greetings Sleepy Heads! (I went to bed very early and got up early and plan to go back to bed. Sweet dreams!)

How long are we in the Caribbean going to be protected we don't know. On Tuesday we had a dust bowl over us which did not allow the heavy rain in the forecast to materialize. Would that this dusty situation appears when we need it most. So far, DANIELLE is staying far from us. She's going back and forth from a hurricane to a TS to a hurricane. That has been bringing her closer to Bermuda which is now in what is referred to as the "cone of doom"; I prefer the "cone of uncertainty". Computer models have their most recent tentacles stretching out to New York beyond Bermuda. As for TD #7 or the future EARL, he can come closer to the Northern Leewards, one of the models has it scraping by! All that changes hour by hour. As one of the weather comments I read earlier on the WeatherUnderground said, "Computer models are like politicians, flip-flop". FIONA, if the wave next in line on the African coast becomes a named storm, has an ugly face. If she decides to go straight west, that would mean trouble for the Caribbean. Let's hang in there and do our own storm watch duty and be prepared, most important of all, pray! Be safe, not sorry! God bless us all!

Isabel

- Rumors of a Tropical Romance!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2010 20:52:49 -0500

Good evening, folks!

There was talk today that DANIELLE has attracted EARL, so much so that he is putting his act together real fast. By the looks of things, he is going to be a name to reckon with and he will try to follow her. Jim Cantore said this evening that the one can influence the other. At the moment he said, they are doing a dance. Imagine that. Romance in the Tropical Atlantic! Well!

On Stormcarib I animated the colorful globe and one clearly sees the huge systems that are lined up on the African continent, ready for take off. I played it in a 9 frame speed and one can see how Danielle's chaser, which was kind of ragged at first, curled up with each frame as it develops into what can become a major hurricane. And, are those, FIONA and GASTON in the distance? God help us if any of these should hit land. Check out the globe. Very interesting.

I hope, as we all do I'm sure, that DANIELLE does not decide to visit Bermuda. I do hope we get some of the rain as it goes by us. Our local weather lady said this evening that it is such a big storm that the rain can very well reach us. It has been very HOT here. How close is it going to get to us? At the moment not too close, but that can all change with the atmospheric conditions. That's why we must always monitor the storms until they are well out of the region.

Keep an eye to the weather, keep tracking the storms, be prepared, respect the power of Mother Nature and move if you're told to do so. God bless us all.

Isabel

- DANIELLE and Company

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2010 22:55:57 -0500

A Good Night to All!

Tonight TD #6 was upgraded to Tropical Storm DANIELLE.! That's the 4th named storm of the season. We have many more yet to go, or to come. And coming they are, I am more concerned about EARL and FIONA. They have the same face as DANIELLE and it's a matter of time before the Computer models forecast their track. As far as our current storm, it is already on latitude 14 and on longitude 35 moving NW, so unless there's a drastic change in direction it will pass well to the east. I wish I could say the same for EARL, yet to be named officially. It's quite obvious that the activity is beginning to take shape.

This evening, as I baked some oatmeal/chocolate chip cookies for the grandkids' first day of school tomorrow, I kept an eye and an ear on the Weather Channel which had a series of episodes of various hurricanes. There were people who refused to leave when they were told to do so, and after almost getting killed in a horrifying hurricane experience, the head of one family asked "Why me!!" I couldn't help answering, "..because you made a stupid decision to stay, so there!" I just hope that people think before making decisions like that, especially when they are responsible for a family. His little daughter, who had Asthma, was crying for help under a mattress for protection from flying glass and other debris. He could not do anything to help her. Thank God they survived! I can bet, without a doubt, that they and others like themselves who refused to leave, will be the first to evacuate in the future when the order is given.

It is very important that we track the storms. We all should have a tracking map or have the internet available with all the information at your fingertips. This network is excellent and we should do whatever we can to support it financially. This is our local Network, where we can keep track of what's going on in the neighborhood and help each other as the storms get closer. Many people all over the world read the correspondents' reports on Stormcarib. Just recently a friend of ours who is visiting London logged on and contacted me after she read my report.

Let's keep an eye to the weather as we go about our busy lives and know that what we have today we may not necessarily have tomorrow. Let's not take things for granted. Watchout for DANIELLE's entourage! God bless us all.

Isabel

- Tropical Depression #6

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2010 20:06:29 -0500

Good Evening,

I was commenting today on how in 2005 we were already at the "K" storm (KATRINA) and here we are barely at "D". That's probably why so many people are pessimistic about the forecast for a "severe" season. Just this morning on the Weather Channel they were talking about the high numbers and that those numbers still stand (at least until further notice..). We know that there are a series of big WAVES making their way through Africa to the Atlantic, that the SST is very warm, that we're having a lot of "hot air" as one of the correspondents put it, and we're all wilting with the heat, so something has got to give!

It was a perfect day to cool off, if that's possible, in the sea. We did not get to do that, but I'm sure many people headed for the beach, or a swimming pool to take that plunge. We've not had much in the way of rain to cool us off either. So, we're counting on the Wave that's arriving on Monday ( just on time for the first day of school!) with squally weather. We hope that the children do not get soaked as they did last year. Although, that could be a blessing. Our children had a great school year!

We're waiting and watching and hoping that we can cope with whatever may be in the plans for our neighborhood. TD #6 may not necessarily be the BIg One for us, but it could be the next, or the next, or the next...... Let's hang in there and hope that they all go to the Atl. graveyard where hurricanes die. God bless us all. Have a wonderful Sunday.

Isabel

- Opening the Way...

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2010 20:25:50 -0500

Good Evening,

The disturbance in the Atlantic is perhaps merely opening the way for the train of waves and potential disturbances that are crossing the continent of Africa as we "speak". It would really be great if this disturbance goes out and away from land. That's exactly what we hope would happen to all the disturbances out of Africa. That is highly improbable. The complacency and skepticism, though, that I'm encountering about the so called "severity" of this season is worrisome. They fail to see that there are still three months to go. These are the most active months in the season.

We had a most beautiful day today. The Saharan dust lifted and the sky was the bluest blue. We went for a swim in the evening in the warmest of water and talked with a friend, while in it, about the hurricane season. He thought it was kind of quiet considering the number of storms that were predicted. I told him that this is the time when it really begins. I could not say much more as the grandkids wanted to play with him in the water. The important thing for him and everyone to remember is that it only takes one hurricane to change the setting and alter one's life.

I dread the thought of a land falling hurricane and all the terror it brings with it. Fifteen year old Alexander Hamilton wrote about the 1772 hurricane in this manner: "Good God! What horror and destruction! It is impossible for me to describe or for you to form any idea of it. It seemed as if a total dissolution of nature was taking place. The roaring of the sea and wind, fiery meteors flying about in the air, the prodigious glare of almost perpetual lightning, the crash of falling houses, and the ear-piercing shrieks of the distressed, were sufficient to strike astonishment into Angels.."

Whatever we do, let us prepare well for the months ahead, let us pay attention to the weather reports, let us not have our heads buried in the sand totally unmindful of what's happening, and thank the Lord whenever a potential hurricane passes us by.
This Sunday a tropical wave is forecast to come through. It is followed by two others, one is the potential disturbance. Always keep an eye to the weather and pray. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Potential Disturbance # 2 in the Atlantic!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2010 22:20:26 -0500

Good Night to All,

I wish to bring your attention to a disturbance in the Atlantic which has a very good chance of becoming a cyclone and it is heading in our direction. It is still very far away, but some of the models has it coming this way. It should be in this region by the middle to end of next week. Dr. Jeff Masters thinks its going northeast of the islands. That was the route that COLIN took. We'll hope for the best; that it does not affect any land masses.

We went for a swim this evening, had the beach all to ourselves, and found the sea very warm. Everything is in place for a named storm, no less. At the moment development potential is at
20%. I can see that changing rather quickly as it moves west. We should keep a close watch on this system and not wait until the last minute to see where it's going. I was not here then, but it's my understanding that most people did not believe that HUGO was coming this way. After not having had a hurricane in 60yrs., they felt that this one would also turn off and go away. It did not. HUGO made a beeline to St. Croix and went down the backbone at six mph. It destroyed just about everything along the way. I was able to come home a month later. Here's a quote from my report:

"It is not easy to measure D-A-M-A-G-E of this extent, but in order to try to have an inkling of how much of it there was on the 82 sq. mile island of St. Croix, let's measure it by the amount of waste debris left by HUGO. On Nov. 5 - 6th, 1989, over 200 million tons of it, --25 feet high, about the size of 10 football fields, was scheduled to be burned. A controlled burn of this sort with that amount of debris would take 24 - 36 hours, otherwise, according to the authorities as stated in the St. Croix Avis, " It would take about 4,000 days for the island's two incinerators working around the clock to burn the debris.." .The 200 million tons represented only 20% of the storm-related trash that must be burned. Based on that percentage, the amount of HUGO debris on St. Croix totaled an estimated 1.8 billion pounds."

We certainly don't want another HUGO, nor do we want any storm that size to "swallow us alive". That's exactly why we need to pay attention and do what the authorities dictate at such a time, if a storm should make it's way in our vicinity. Let's watch disturbance # 2 in the Atlantic and pray that it dissipates or goes away from any land. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- Action Alert for Next Week!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2010 21:19:05 -0500

Dear Caribbean Friends and Beyond,

There seems to be an eerie feeling about next week. Our local weather lady said it again this evening. The system being watched is expected to become a hurricane and track right at us. Well, we expected something for a while now, so it should not be a surprise if it actually does arrive. The Saharan dust has been protecting us longer than it usually does. Now the powers of Mother Nature is ready to sweep the dust away and bring on the entourage of names that have been pre-announced. DANIELLE! Is she the one coming this way? We'll have to wait and see, and while we wait, start picking up those things around the yard/garden that we've been too lethargic to touch all these past two months and let's pray that things don't get too much out of hand. Dr. Jeff Masters says in his blog on the Caribbean Hurricane Network that we can expect 2 - 3 named storms before the end of August. So, let's hang in there and keep an eye to the weather. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Are We Ready?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2010 22:33:50 -0500

Good Night, Sleep Tight, and don't let the mosquitoes bite!

This morning I heard Stephanie Abrams of the Weather Channel say, "So much for an active hurricane season, right?" She was speaking to Dr. Knabb who'd just finished saying that the Atlantic was quiet, but that we had to keep an eye on a wave coming off the coast of Africa.

This wave was referred to by the GFS model as one that will be in our region by the middle of next week. Now, this evening I was reading the "Analysis" in Dr. Jeff Masters Weatherunderground blog on the Caribbean Hurricane Network, and I urge you all to read it. All I can share with you is this quote, "...I expect we will see 2 - 3 named storms in the Atlantic by the end of August, including one hurricane..." He's really putting himself out on a limb, however, he is a man of experience and knowledge. He can afford to put himself in that position. Everything is pointing to the part of the season which has been announced for some time. A very active season. It is coming in bunches and batches and could last longer than normal. Are we ready? If not, use this "quiet before the storm" mentioned by Dave, and do something about it. Be well, be happy and God bless you.

Isabel

- The Next Ten Days

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2010 20:14:48 -0500

Greetings!

Well, this is the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season. The GFS model has gone out far enough on limb to report that a burst of storms will be forming. Dates were provided. Check the St. Lucia correspondent's post of Aug. 15th. Christopher Jenkins has the details. It seems highly unlikely that this could happen, but on the other hand, the ingredients are all present. it's a matter of time. Let's hope that with the fleet of aircraft made available by NOAA / NASA to study and track the storms we will learn more about hurricanes, and perhaps even how to disrupt them. I personally think they're alergic to dust and if the ones in authority can pour some barrels of dust into a storm it might just do it.

We are being affected by a weak wave at the moment. Rumblings in the sky. Some rain fell today more in some areas less in others. Overnight more is expected. During the next ten days, we should be in a completely different situation according to the GFS model. Let's enjoy the quiet while it lasts. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Alexander Hamilton in St. Croix

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2010 22:50:12 -0500

Good Night to All,

As Dr. Knabb, hurricane expert, said on Friday, "It is eerily quiet." It is! So, I will take this moment to share a thought or two with you. One day I was in line with my two grandchildren to pay for some juices. I gave my grandson a ten dollar bill and as we waited I asked the children "Whose picture is that on the bill ?" The answer came back, "Alexander Hamilton". I went on to tell them how he lived here as a boy and learned a trade as a teenager. A gentle voice behind us said, "Tell them where he was born." Small world, the woman behind us was from Nevis, the island of Alexander's birth.

it's a long story, but somehow the years in St. Croix propelled Alexander to one day being the First Secretary of the Treasury of the United States of America. Strange enough, it was a hurricane in 1772, similar to HUGO, which made Alexander write an impassioned letter to his father describing his experience throughout the hurricane. That letter became famous. His father was so impressed with it that he had it published in the local paper and it took off from there.

That hurricane brought Alexander to his knees. I can picture him as all teenagers who think they're smarter than their elders.This was a blessing is disguise for him. The moment of truth. "Where now, oh vile worm, is all thy boasted fortitude and insufficiency? Why dost thou tremble and stand aghast? How humble, how helpless, how contemptible you now appear. And for why? The jarring of the elements, the discord of the clouds? Oh, impotent presumptuous fool! How darest thou offend that omnipotence, whose nod alone were sufficient to quell the destruction that hovers over thee, or crush thee to atoms? See thy wretched helpless state and learn to know thyself.."

He certainly learned to know himself. He became famous. On the Heritage Trail on St. Croix one can visit sites where Alexander lived and worked. Our airport was once named Alexander Hamilton Airport; that was changed years ago to the Henry Rohlsen Airport. He was a member of the Tuskegee airmen. I guess that makes more sense, however, those of us who "grew up" with the Alexander Hamilton Airport cannot help remembering it as such.

Now we know, perhaps, a little more about Alexander Hamilton, and definitely that hurricanes, powerful ones, are not recent to our island. Is this going to be such a season?
It is highly suspect that this season is going to run it's course and....beyond? For a season that has been predicted as "a severe one", this eerie quiet is not a good sign. With that awful thought I take my weary self to bed and hope for a restful night. I wish you all the same. May God bless us as we prepare! Have a wonderful Sunday.

Isabel

Please excuse any separation in the text. How that happens I don't know. And I never know when it's going to happen. It's a technical glitch.

- Beautiful day on the island

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2010 18:29:28 -0700 (PDT)

Oh my goodness, today was absolutely gorgeous on island. Went for my walk around 9am and the humidity was about 80% so not terrible for a good walk. Not a bit of rain all day today and then tonight, we went out to the Point, the most eastern point of the United States, and took some wonderful pictures! We have NEVER seen it so clear in all of the years we have lived here!! The Saharan dust is not even close to us for the moment, so loving life! See the attached foto! All looks good for a grand weekend on island, so looking forward to great beach days on Saturday and Sunday!

Always remember to keep your eyese open to the eatst as this is the most active time of the year!

Take Care,

Susan

Attachment: Clear day in STX 015.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Clear day in STX 011.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Clear day in STX 014.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- Preparing to Prepare!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2010 20:01:04 -0500

Good Evening,

This morning, Dr. Knabb, the new Hurricane expert at the Weather Channel, pointed out that there's a tropical wave leaving the coast with a spin. Some of the computer models has this wave becoming a Depression early on its trek in the Atlantic. This is marking the beginning of the infamous Cape Verde storms, which are large and dangerous. One of these storms was HUGO. Here, in St. Croix, as well as people on other islands in the Caribbean, and on the mainland affected by this hurricane, will never forget that nightmare in 1989.

If you had a chance to read the link from the Miami Herald provided by the correspondent in Jamaica, Blayz Brooks, you would know about the "arsenal" in place to track hurricanes, to provide swifter, more accurate information, during the six busiest weeks of the season. ".....a fleet of aircraft, including an unmanned drone capable of monitoring a storm for 16 hours straight.." The fleet consists of NOAA's Hurricane Hunter, to which NASA will add a DC-8 jet based in Fort Lauderdale, a longe-range converted WB-57 bomber based in Texas, and the Global Hawk, the unmanned drone mentioned above which will be based and controlled out of California. (For more information read the referred link.)

We have been enjoying a mixed, very interesting weather pattern. It was sunny, then mostly cloudy late in the day, not appealing for an outing to the beach, but we decided to go anyway. The enticement was too great to resist. The sea was calm and refreshing. Looking back, we had to go to the beach today, had we not, a woman would most probably have drowned. She had drifted too far with her daughter, while snorkeling, and panicked when her glass started to fill with water. She did not know how to swim and her daughter who was not that good at it either was being pulled down by her agitated mother; it took us a while to realize that there was a serious problem unfolding. The poor woman was in shambles during and after the rescue. She was very grateful and said they often went to the beach late in the day and would be there alone. That's not a good idea, especially when they don't know how to swim and that goes for all non-swimmers. So, be safe out there, and have a wonderful weekend. God bless us all as we prepare!

Isabel

- Suspense is Increasing!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2010 20:04:12 -0500

Good Evening!

I can safely say we had a "thunder day". It sounded as if someone was moving around a lot of heavy furniture up there. The morning was fine for touring and seeing the sights, but as the hours passed it was clear that "thunder" wanted to have a say in things. I didn't understand what was going on, there was no rain, just a persistent rumble that should make anyone stay clear of the water. Perhaps it was some sort of communication that things are going to start getting rough just in case we are getting a bit complacent.

If you haven't done so as yet, I would like you to read today's post by the correspondent in Jamaica, Blayz Brooks. Make sure to read the attached link. Very important, interesting, and to some degree suspenseful information. A hint, the "experts" are preparing for extended trouble with a capital T.

We have another tropical wave approaching us by Saturday, otherwise, the weather provides enough time to enjoy activities between downpours. The temperature tomorrow will be around 90 F. and the heat index 100% like today. No wonder we're all feeling so droopy. (Keep smiling!) Be well, be happy, and God bless us all.

Isabel

- Disturbance #2 in the Atlantic near the Windwards!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2010 06:43:41 -0500

Hello again,

This is like a post script to my post a few minutes ago. I checked Stormpulse and they have the system I mentioned as Disturbance # 2 with a 10% chance at the moment of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hrs. At 1:00 a.m. this morning is was located at 11.8 N 55.4 W. It was more to the south then, according to NOAA on the weather radio this morning it was located higher. When you see the cloud formation around it you'll notice how widespread it is. I still think that a better idea of it can be seen on the Loop I mentioned this morning. Let's keep both eyes on it! Blessings!

Isabel

- The "Primers" are in Place

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2010 06:32:31 -0500

Good Morning!

At 6:30 this morning we got hit with some monsoon type rain that helped me to understand, even if only in a small way, what is happening in Pakistan, China, and India. Imagine this on a more prolonged and larger scale, on a 24 hr. basis.. It is no wonder that thousands of people have died!

Where did this weather come from all of a sudden? In a way, not "all of a sudden"; it is part of the "unstable weather" for this whole week that I mentioned in an earlier post. What was almost comical was that I was listening to our local weather forecast on the radio as we were being told of a partly cloudy day. It was a monsoon rain at that very moment. Well, well! Another curious situation was that I checked the satellite weather images and there was no indication that there was anything like this coming. This is one of those "phantom" systems that creep into the daily weather pattern and surprises everyone.

I would like to draw your attention to the Western Atlantic-False Color RGB Loop (whatever that is!). It is interesting and informative without words. An animated black and white screen where one can see what's moving where. To the lower left you will notice clearly a wave with ominous looking potential mentioned on NOAA Radio this morning. It was not taken into account by the Weather Channel, which is only interested in the Depression #5 closer to home. According to NOAA, this system closer to the northern Windwards, with movement to the west, but seems more wnw to me, has a chance of becoming a Depression in 48 hrs.! Those of us in the region should monitor this system closely. We have entered the most active time of the hurricane season and now we can expect lots of action. The atmosphere is obviously charged with "primers" that include the ingredients for a good stew, in this case, a hurricane.

Don't become complacent just because the sun shines when the clouds pass. There are more clouds, more convection, and WOW those were horrendous thunderstorms early this morning. I felt like running under anything with the pets who were beside themselves, and I'm usually a little braver!! Ha! Be safe, not sorry, prepare well. I will check back later today. May God bless us all.

Isabel

- The "Primers" are in Place

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2010 06:32:31 -0500

- Look Your Best, it's Lightning!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2010 22:51:55 -0500

Good Night, friends near and far,

When it's lightning, watch out! Someone could be taking flash pictures of you! That being the case, there were lots of pictures being taking along the south of St. Croix. It was not very long after that when we got one of those very strong, heavy showers. That's how it's been for a couple of days now and its expected to continue until the end of the week I heard on NOAA Radio.

We are two months and 11 days into the hurricane season. So far, so good. However, "quiet waters run deep" and the sea is very warm quite a way down. It is like dynamite waiting to be ignited. AND when the sea becomes still and the wind drops to nil, we know that something is brewing. That's when any fish with bloated bellies are a sign of an impending storm. Avocados, someone said today, is a sign of a busy hurricane season. Could she have mean the harvesting? No, she meant that when there is an abundance of avocados, it's because of approaching hurricanes. Ants, they say play a part in the forecasting of storms. All I can say, is thank God that we haven't had a name storm here as yet this season.

Alexander Hamilton once experienced a hurricane while living on St. Croix. It was his dramatic description in a letter to his father, according to some, that propelled him into his eventual role as the very first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States. God works in mysterious ways. We were blessed to have Alexander live here for a time. In one of my next posts I shall share some of his words with you. He was only a teenager then. So, until the next post, be well, be happy, and God bless you. Enjoy one day at a time and bloom where you are planted.!

Isabel

- Waking up to a little rain

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2010 05:37:41 -0700 (PDT)

Good Morning!

2nd day in a row waking up to some nice steady rain showers moving through the East End. Only thing I am not looking forward to today as I did yesterday is sharing my space with MORE no-seeums

Yesterday had turned out to be a nice day after lunchtime. It drizzled most of the morning. The rain has just ended now and it is only 830am, so today might also turn out to be nice too! According to the maps, we are due for a tropical wave in the next few days, but other than that, a quiet season so far. But, as always my eyes and ears are always on high alert during these times. I hope you have a wonderful rest of the day. Off for my nice little walk when the temperature is nice and cool after the rains! (Taking a zippie bag for the ipod just in case I get a shower though! Skies are a little dark, but trying really hard to let the blue show!!)

Susan

- Unstable Weather in the forecast

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 9 Aug 2010 14:31:20 -0500

Good Afternoon!

We were bombarded from the south most of the morning right through lunch. Dark skies, flashes of lightning which started through the night already with rumbles of thunder. On NOAA radio I heard that it was a trough that even after it passed us was going to leave the air rather unstable for the rest of the week. That usually means that the pattern of quiet weather is going to be disrupted at any moment with some downpours and other activity. We are glad for the rain, but sorry for the visitors who look forward to the sunshine. I do hope that Mother Nature is going to allow a fair amount of sunshine.

It otherwise looks quiet as far as threatening name storms. Most of the waves are traveling along the ITCZ. It's possible that with the lifting of the Saharan Dust and the low wind shear the activity will commence. Let's pray that it does not get too out of control. The main thing is for us to do our part and have everything in place. I will check back later if there is anything noteworthy to report for this day. Be safe out there and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- Clouds Across the Sea

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 8 Aug 2010 20:07:46 -0500

Good Evening!

I was admiring the beautiful, blue sky and the tri-blue sea today. A
perfectly beautiful moment. Later in the day some dark clouds took
over for a while, we got a few drops. They must've moved across the
sea to St.Thomas/St. John. I took these pictures from our house with
my cell phone. I had not seen clouds like that for a while. I guess I
did not stop to smell the roses, or I would've seen the sights.

For the moment, it is quieter than quiet in this our "very active
hurricane season". We are, of course, grateful that we have not been
threatened with any storm and hope it stays that way. We do need rain
again that's for sure.

I wish everyone in the tropical Atlantic a good and safe week. God bless us all.

Isabel

You have been sent 3 pictures.


675A2178.JPG
675A2179.JPG
675A2180.JPG

These pictures were sent with Picasa, from Google.
Try it out here: http://picasa.google.com/

Attachment: 675A2178.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 675A2179.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 675A2180.JPG
Description: JPEG image

- The Lazy, Hazy, Days of Summer

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 7 Aug 2010 22:30:56 -0500

Good Night!

Another day of intense heat in Russia. We are used to hot weather year round, but in Russia their buildings are not equipped for hot weather. According to Dr. Jeff Masters report today, it is expected that the number of premature deaths credited to this heat wave is going to surpass 40,000. Please read and be informed.

We've been having the refreshing mornings, the very warm to hot daytime hours, the very pleasant evening/night hrs. and
the welcome breeze that soothes and relaxes the spirit. This evening, I enjoyed this as I sat under the sprawling Flamboyant tree with it's flaming, red flowers. i reminisced how I had to straighten the flattened, young tree after the passage of LENNY. Here it was more than ten years later in all its majesty--the Royal Poinciana (another name for Flamboyant tree). Will it survive another hurricane if put to the test?

93 L is moving out to sea. Below it is another blob which seems to belong to 93L, yet it looks as it is on it's own.We shall soon find out if it's going to continue to the west. Nothing has been said about it. The computer models apparently do not see anything significant in the next seven days. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the quiet spell. God bless you.

Isabel

- Dry Spell during Rainy Season

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 6 Aug 2010 23:01:21 -0500

Good Night, folks!

I was just thinking today that it has not rained for a while, at least not in Christiansted where we live. I'm not complaining. I know that there's lots of it on the way, after all, this is the rainy season. We just have not had as many tropical waves coming by as we usually expect at this time. Something's up. An eerie feeling. In the meanwhile, a disturbance with medium potential for developing into a cyclone has it tentacles reaching out to Bermuda in the form of forecast models. One of them is pointing slightly north of the islands. It has potential to become a Depression this weekend. That usually mean lots of rain. It seems like a broad area, very broad area, so chances are we will get some rain out of it, and who knows...

Did I ever tell you about the young couple who inquired of the pastor if November is a good month weather wise for a wedding? He told them it's good, no hurricanes at that time anymore. The wedding was planned. They came to get married here and so did LENNY! They spent their first night and more, perhaps, with others seeking refuge in the parish house! The pastor was not amused, nor were any of us who did not expect a hurricane in the middle of November. I was alone in my house when this unexpected visitor arrived! But then, the hurricane season officially runs until November 30th --as if they go according to our calendar! They come when they will. WE have to be prepared at all times for storms during this period, from early June to late November. Be well, be happy, have a great weekend. God bless us all.

Take care out there, Bermuda. And watch out for potential disturbance #1 in the Atlantic. It has it's eyes on you according to the forecast models. Monitor it carefully. We have to do the same in case it changes direction. All the best.

Isabel

- 2010-Will it be a Hurricane Record Breaking Year.?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2010 23:38:56 -0500

Good Night, All!

if you wish to read the updates concerning the number of storms for this season I'd like to guide you to Dr. Jeff Masters blog on stormcarib . NOAA, according to a radio report, lowered their numbers by three. Perhaps they should have increased the number by three considering that this is a record breaking year in many places. Pakistan has not had RAIN like this in generations-at least 80 yrs. Monterey-it "hardly ever rains there". Well, they received 34 inches of rain with ALEX, and those are only two examples of the many catastrophes that are occurring due to unusual weather. Why should it be any different for this region. That's why it's so important to start thinking of hurricane preparedness.

Dave mentioned in his last post that a storm could be affecting us next week. Today, I read in Dr. Masters' blog that the GFS model is predicting a Depression to form early next week from a wave that left the coast of Africa yesterday. it's the same one that Dave is concerned about. He said it was an impressive wave.

What does one say to vacationers looking for sunshine? Can we guarantee sunshine? Not really. So, the best bet is to take the risk and hope that it will be mostly sunny during the stay. On my first trip to London, it rained the entire time. The second trip was very sunny and we saw the changing of the guard at Buckingham Palace and enjoyed the beautiful sites; did London Bridge and all the rest. Granted, more can be done and enjoyed in sunny weather than in a soggy one. When our daughter came to visit for a week, some years back, it rained non stop. She lives here now and can enjoy sunny weather most of the time. All I can do is to wish the best of luck to all who are traveling to St. Croix, may your days be sunny, may your vacation be all you would like it will be.

Blessings,
Isabel

- After Colin - What next?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2010 08:28:09 -0500

Good Morning!

There's a huge mess in the Atlantic that is being overlooked by the Weather Channel. I agree with Dave that it looks impressive. The season has been too passive for some people; that, of course, is due to the overload of numbers of storms predicted by the experts. In December we shall know for sure if they over reacted or if their predictions were accurate.

In the meanwhile, before that system out there, gets here, we are having lovely weather. Visitors must be enjoying each day with all it has to offer. Unfortunately, we are not on vacation. We have a garden to tend to, a lawn to mow, the trimming of bushes, pruning of branches... Which reminds me, did you know that you should thin out the branches of trees before a hurricane so that the wind goes through, and not uproot the whole tree? In our case, a 75 ft African Tulip tree, which is too tall to work on without a "bucket", took the brunt of OMAR's 130 mph wind on our hill. We saw the wind flick the branches here and there, gone with the wind! Fortunately, it was not uprooted, instead the thinning out of the branches was done by the hurricane itself. That was the same storm that respected a dainty spray of orchids out in the open. We thought we would not see that one again.

We hope we don't have to deal with another hurricane, but that's wishful thinking, whether it gets here or not, we can be affected almost as if it was on top of us, especially if it's a cat 5.. Wind is bad, but too much water is worse because it floods, drags people and animals away, stays longer....Look at what is happening in Pakistan and what has happened on the mainland is various places, and around the world. A rain event is a disaster in the making. Let's hope we don't have to deal with that. Have a great day. I will check back later tonight after studying the Atlantic. God bless you.

Isabel

- COLLIN Passes by..

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Aug 2010 22:33:08 -0500

Good Night!

That's it for today! We got a sudden, heavy downpour late this afternoon that could only have been from COLIN! I ran outside to close the car windows and was soaked in that brief space of time. It was an intense rain, like nails, straight down.! Then it passed and the sun was shining as gloriously as ever. We had a beautiful evening sky and a quiet night thus far. NOAA Radio is announcing the unsettled weather that PR and the VI will be having during the next couple of days. I think St. Thomas and St. John are the islands in the VI that will receive the unsettled weather since they are farther north. St. Croix is to the south, far away from the activity.

The Colorado State University (CSU)'s forecast for the number of storms, remains unchanged, according to Dr. Jeff Masters.
He seems to have had the same question as I voiced in one of my previous posts. You can check the information in his Wunderblog on Stormcarib. He said,"This season has held three named storms so far. It will be difficult to have a season with 19 named storms since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms had at least five named storms by this point (Aug.4)." NOAA, which had predicted the most named storms--23, is issuing their update soon.
I can hardly wait! Let's hope for the best. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Hot hot hot

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Aug 2010 17:47:40 -0700 (PDT)

Good Evening!

Gosh, what a hot day it was here on St Croix. I went for my daily walk and I told the hubby I thought I was dying with absolutely no breeze blowing and the humidity was up to 90% at 9am. We had a good shower last night and I sat all day waiting for a little something from "Colin" but it never happened. We had a teenie shower that lasted all of about 3 minutes at 630pm tonight and that was all! Hubby was driving home from work and said that the South SHore Road had lots of water on it, so as always the East End missed all of the action. Cistern is still holding strong at 6 1/2 feet now, so I am a happy camper!

I just looked at the colorful stuff coming off of Africa, Dave looks to be right where we should have soemthing scary in our area by next week :( As alwyas heading to the Big K this weekend to stock up on a few hurricane things. One can never be too safe! Don't forget to keep your eyeas always open and be alert to everything happening around you!!

Have a wonderul night wherever you maybe! I am hopefully dreaming of a nice breeze through the house tonight! So, far the dream is not happening for me!! 2 fans are just ablowing full speed!! Gotta love it!! Heck we could be on the mailand participating in the Great American rat race of life! No thanks!

- The Remains of TS COLIN

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Aug 2010 08:32:34 -0500

Good Morning!

Whew! That could of been major had it not been for the many factors in play that prevented it from happening, the most important one being, prayer. Regardless of what has become of TS COLIN, the NHC warns that, "locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands today and tonight". In looking at the satellite imagery shortly before writing this post, I noticed that the lower part of the system is the part that could impact us as it moves WNW. At the moment conditions are calm, just a slight breeze, mostly sunny, with no hint of anything on the way. We shall see as the day progresses.

I heard the name DANIELLE mentioned this morning on the Weather Channel, as the next one in line out in the Atlantic. An area is being watched for development. It stands a very good chance and very soon we may be dealing with another Tropical Storm. If 23 named storms were predicted by NOAA, we have another 20 to go!! I expect that in the near future there will be an updated prediction and it would not be surprising if the numbers go down. Yet, with all the weather-related catastrophic events taking place all over the world, it can happen that we will be getting an unusual number of hurricanes in a short space of time. It is HOT out there!! Concern about the warmth of the sea (SST) has been voiced from well back in April. That means something; it's the fuel the storms need. When all the right ingredients are in place, it could be an action packed rest of hurricane season. Let's take it a day at a time and see how the experts guide us through this period.

I think that the forecast models are going to have a busy time ahead. COLIN surely had them baffled for a while. With a fast moving storm it is hard to tell what's going to happen. It can change at any moment. As it is, there is still a chance that it's not a done deal as yet. Have a wonderful day. Will be back later.

Blessings,
Isabel

- Too Early to Tell

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2010 20:16:40 -0500

Good Night, All !

We are enjoying a very quiet night so far. No tropical wave, as yet. It was forecast to reach us this night. No COLIN either. He is having a battle of his own. He may not survive much longer as a tropical storm, but then, it's better to wait and see before checking it off. There are many more where that one came from. The waves are rolling off the coast of Africa and by the looks of it we should have another named storm before long. This is a good time to pick up around your property anything that can fly. Why wait for a storm? Sooner or later it's a task we must do. For the moment, let's face east and hope that any future storms will be gentle, passing swiftly by. COLIN, according to the last report, was traveling at 35mph.That's quite a speed! We have a long way to go this hurricane season. Be well, be happy, and God bless you.

Isabel

- Watching COLIN !

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Aug 2010 10:27:50 -0500

Good Morning!

We've been having some sudden bursts of rain of short duration; then sunny, then cloudy and so forth, while it's quite warm and humid. My family who is back from Germany/New York said it was hot and dry there so that their skin was being affected. Here, with less than a day back they have normal, shiny, healthy looking skin from the humidity.

I think we all have our eyes on COLIN this morning, except for those who are convinced that he is going to pass us to the north. We hope that is the case. However, in doing my little study, I noticed on Stormpulse that now there is a second forecast model over the islands. XTRP (blk) is going over Guadeloupe and straight to Tampico, Mx.; while CLPS (orange) is going through Guadeloupe and northwest. I also noticed Antigua and St. Martin are now within the "cone of uncertainty". It has dropped lower since yesterday. St. Croix is within the mix.

If and when COLIN clears our neighborhood we must keep alert. The forecast models are indicating that there could be a change in direction to our disadvantage. So, let's pay attention and be prepared. Until later. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Computer models and the current storm

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 21:10:51 -0500

Good Evening,

"They" say that the computer models are taking TD-4, or whatever else it becomes, north of the islands. We are standing on guard and at the first sign of change in our direction we should be able to jump into action as long as we have all that is needed. Can we really trust the computer models, after all, they are only computers. It would be an interesting study to see how accurate they are. As of 4:00 p.m. one of the forecast models XTRP (blk. color) was bringing the storm over St. Martin, St. Thomas, brushing close by all islands towards the Bahamas.That would be one model for us to track to see if it is accurate. For us it would mean dealing with possibly a Tropical Storm in the next few days. In which case I prefer the other forecast models that take it more to the north.

We are having the usual hot weather for this time of year, but with a nice breeze, especially on a hill like ours. The palm fronds are swaying in the breeze and all is well. There is the chance of getting some effects from a Tropical Wave passing to our south tonight.

Be well, be happy, and enjoy the abundant life to the fullest. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Is this the one?

By Ehsan Said <esaid09 at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 09:29:36 -0400

Hello,

This is my first post of the season since there was nothing to talk about previously. Folks, this looks like we could have trouble to deal with. Based on my research, we could have Colin forming no time soon, and he could be in our backyards by mid week. According to experts, the storm could take a more westerly track than anticipated by the last computer model runs this morning. This is due to a weakness in the ridge shifting more to the west and thus a more westerly track of the storm. There is one good news; we have strong wind shear (40-50 kts) to the north of us that will weaken the storm if it dares to approach us.

Lets all be prepared and pray to God for protection. Get him WIND SHEAR!!!!

--
Ehsan A Said

- 90%Chance of cyclone formation

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2010 22:08:57 -0500

Good Night!

As we see the chance of a cyclone forming in the Atlantic is greater by the hour. It could be COLIN by Wednesday. It's quite possible that when we awake tomorrow it will be a Depression. It would be a relief if the computer models are right and it passes us to the north. Except for one of the models, which is pointing downwards to the Caribbean almost through St. Croix, all the others continue on a WNW track. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said it poses a threat to the mainland and urges everyone to get their hurricane preparedness in action. It is currently in the middle of the Atlantic moving slowly probably getting more organised.

We, in the Caribbean, are in danger until it passes us as the models indicate. The wisest thing to do is check regularly on its speed and intensity of the storm and calculate "How close will it get." by using the chart on Stormcarib. All we can do is wait and watch as we go about our day; better still, we can pray. God bless us all.

Isabel

- 80% Chance of Cyclone Formation!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 1 Aug 2010 15:19:16 -0500

Good Sunday Afternoon!

At this time everyone in the Caribbean and hopefully beyond knows that 91L is forming rapidly and a Depression should be declared soon. It is still far away; traveling at 4 mph as of 1:45. It's moving WNW and is expected to be in our neighborhood by Thursday night. All the computer models are pointing it in this direction. Two scenarios are possible, if it turns to the west again it will become a hurricane if it isn't already before that. If it goes to the north of the Lesser Antilles it will run into some wind shear. Whatever the case, we will be impacted one way or another. Need we wait any longer to get things in order?
The days go swiftly by and soon we are going to be dealing with a cyclone.

Home/business owners who live away part of the time should closely monitor this system and start making arrangements to protect their properties. We are enjoying some beautiful weather and I see many visitors. The ships have been arriving. They must be enjoying the amazing sight of the Flamboyant trees in all their glory. The red amidst the green green is truly worth the trip. I drove by Queens Quarters on Saturday and I just wished I could stop to take pictures. A visitor once told me that this is his favorite time to be on St. Croix. It's too bad that storms damage so much of the Flora, especially if it's a hurricane. I'm sure that everyone on the islands have these trees and feel the same way as I do. There are also the fruit trees to consider. We've been having a rich harvest of fruit as well. All of this is jeopardised by a hurricane. Also, an effort is being made to bury all cables underground, but I think there's a long way to go with that. We haven't heard anything recently. There's a lot of work at every turn; would be good if the more urgent things be addressed first.

I will check back later to read reports from other correspondents on the island chain who get impacted before we do. St. Croix is not part of the chain and is forty miles away from the other American Virgin Islands. I shall report any word of imminent action, if any, in preparation by the government. Being Sunday, there's no local news in the evening, that's where one would get the details locally, otherwise, NOAA radio keeps us updated, as well as the Weather Channel which is focusing more on the Eastern Atlantic now. The local radio programs bring an update every so often for those who listen a lot to radio program/music or otherwise. The people are being informed, but are they listening! Let's hang in there and hope this system goes out to sea. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Disturbance #1 is slowly developing!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2010 22:36:22 -0500

A Good Night to All!

I wrote earlier about this system. (Please excuse those whacky mistakes. They are worse than typos as they make the sentence rather confusing.) The update from my research tonight is that "potential disturbance #1" is slowly developing and could become a cyclone in the next 48 hrs. It is moving westward, but it's still far away and I think it most likely will not remain on a westward track all the way. As mentioned in a previous post, I was observing how the waves were tracking in a west northwest direction.

I was listening to NOAA weather radio this evening and they are predicting the arrival of a strong tropical wave on Monday evening. This was once 90 L if I'm not mistaken. I still think that this system has a chance to develop. We should not only monitor carefully this and all threatening systems, but should also alert any relatives and friends who might be living in its path.

Tomorrow is another day. We shall see if this potential disturbance has gone through any transformation. Have a good night's rest and a wonderful Sunday. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Medium-Potential Disturbance # 1

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2010 15:30:18 -0500

Good Afternoon,

I was just reading Dr.Jeff Masters blog. It's an "eye-popper"! According to him 90 L is no longer of any interest, but rather what is coming behind it. That, he predicts, should become a Tropical Storm in the coming week, heading towards the Lesser Antilles, and not only that, but other waves coming off the coast of Africa are posing the same threat. Check Stormcarib and take a look at the various systems, they are even growing in size.! This very hot weather that the Caribbean that we are experiencing is the beginning of what has been predicted for this season. Is it going to be comparable to the Monsoon Depression/storm that killed 800 people in Pakistan? It is on going, and they fear the number can go as high as 3000! Read Dr. Jeff Masters blog for more information. As for us, if we are not prepared at this point, then we could be looking into the face of Trouble. COLIN and companions are scheduled for a visit, not as tourists, but as friends of HUGO and KATRINA maybe. Sometimes it's good to expect the worse so that we can prepare for it. If we constantly keep shrugging these systems off, we are in for a rude awakening. So, far we have not lost a large number of people during a hurricane, as Haiti has in the past, let's hope there will never be a first time in that department for us.

I will check back later to see if perhaps, as if by wishful thinking, all these potentially dangerous systems that threaten us will have disappeared from the map. Now, that 90L is of no longer of consequence, does not mean that it cannot arrive as a vigorous wave. We're not going to be out of the woods until November and l would not be surprised if the hurricane season will be naturally extended. These alerts must also be taken seriously by folks on the mainland, especially along the shoreline. Remember that five hurricanes have been predicted to make landfall there, the very storms which go through or by us. So many people die every year during hurricanes and yet there is the same carelessness. When are we going to become more hurricane savvy and more prepared? Now is the time. Hasta luego! I'll check in later. God bless you.

Isabel

- Keep an Eye on 90L!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2010 23:54:09 -0500

A Good Night to All! (I should say "Good morning" instead.)

At this time of year, especially towards the beginning of August, everyone starts getting edgy and anxious. I think that is the case even more so this year with so many dire predictions for a severe Hurricane season. Still, it's best to be cautious and be ready for whatever comes. That is easier said than done. The usual always happens, when a storm is at the door, that's when many people decide to shop for emergency supplies. Plywood is one of the first items that goes fast. Here, most people have shutters, but the demand for plywood is always there. Then there is the demand for sandbags. I know for a fact, having experienced it myself, that one of the branches of government here, always waits for the last minute to gave out sand bags and some shovels to fill them with the sand which they provide. We got some sandbags the very day that Hurricane OMAR was arriving. They did not want to give out the bags unless they were absolutely sure a storm was approaching. That was cutting it too close.! Why wait so long? Those who needed the sandbags had to compete with crowds, parking, and the effects of the approaching storm. Our grandchildren thought it was all very exciting. They had no idea how bad a hurricane can be. They soon found out. The sandbags came in handy that time to keep some of the water out, but this time we are using Quad, so far it has worked.

According to Dave in his post late last night, 90L has "potential and possibly bad intentions". It is not looking like much at the moment because it is interacting with another wave, nevertheless, these systems go through many transformations before they reveal their true nature. It has happened before and this one could very well be the next named storm. Be ready if it is, be happy if it isn't. Hurricane preparedness is not a waste of time. It is very essential to surviving a hurricane, before, during, and in the aftermath. Let's watch this and all the waves coming towards us and do the right thing. Prepare!

I like to invite visitors to our beautiful island, however, it's the responsibility of the visitors to check for future conditions during the time of their visit. For instance, it takes a good week, perhaps a little more, for a storm in the eastern Atlantic to reach the island chain. This one, if it develops, should be around here by the end of next week. That depends on how fast it moves. So, please get all the information necessary before making that trip, so that your stay is not dramatically shortened or ruined. I worry about people who shrug, "I'm not afraid of the weather!" Obviously people like that have never been through a hurricane. They would never make a statement like that if they did. Be safe. God bless us.

Isabel

- An Area of Disturbed Weather in the Atlantic!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 22:53:41 -0500

Good Night to All!

I'm tired. But after seeing the latest, I am alert! There are two areas of disturbed weather. We have to watch the 2nd which is to our east in the Atlantic--90L. It is showing signs of organization and is traveling west, or west northwest. It is over 2000 miles from us. If it follows the second track it will be in our neck of the woods by the end of next week unless it fizzles. That would probably be unlikely as we are entering the most active part of the season. It could curve out to sea eventually. Only time will tell. We need to monitor it closely.

Today, Meteorologist, Jim Cantore, of the Weather Channel was referring to all the waves as "Primers". He said these waves maintain moisture in the air preparing the atmosphere for a storm. These storms cannot survive in dry air that's why Saharan dust inhibits their development. At the moment we have a lot of moisture in the air. Every day has its shower, and every shower has its day. It's perfect for whatever is coming.

Have a good night's rest and we'll be in touch tomorrow. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Waiting for COLIN?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2010 17:43:19 -0500

Good Evening!

This morning on the Weather Channel, Meteorologist Bette Davis asked, "When is COLIN calling?" That would be storm #3 in the lineup, but why is she so anxious for a Tropical Storm, or worse yet, a hurricane. They have so much severe weather on the mainland to keep them busy. Why tempt Mother Nature? Unfortunately, for us, COLIN will appear one of these days, and with so many waves coming off the African Coast, the dust lifting, and the sea way too warm, all the ingredients are in place.

I just checked Stormcarib, prior to writing this update, and I noticed a huge blob that came off the coast. It certainly looks like something to keep an eye on the next few days to see if it develops. Another Meteorologist, Stephanie Abrams, took notice of the waves coming off the coast and did not give them too much importance because as she said, "..They are so far away that they often break up before they get here (mainland)." However, we know for a fact that just a vigorous tropical wave can create flash flooding, landslides, and the usual mess of problems for us as we had a week ago. This type of wave survives the long stretch and develops into T.Storms or Hurricanes as we have seen many times, heading for the mainland.

As I write, we are being affected by a trough that's passing to the south. A tropical wave is expected later tonight into Thursday. There's a 50% chance of rain according to NOAA Radio. That means there's a 50% it will not rain. The next one for the weekend could be stronger.

Today NOAA held a drill. They will do this every Wednesday. At any given moment they will interrupt the program with a long, sharp signal before issuing the emergency in question. At the end they have a different signal. Now I don't know if they are referring to their own Weather Station information or other radio stations as well. That would make sense. Who else, besides myself has NOAA radio on as background music..?? Ha! Ha! My husband has been very patient. He sometimes wonders if those people are real. If NOAA used this emergency alert on all radio stations, say in case of a Tsunami threat, it would reach many people. Most people have the radio on all day, unless it's the TV. There would have to be a similar thing for TV that scrolls, but then not all people read.!! What a dilema. I will not try to figure out that one. Let NOAA take care of it.

So, all's well that ends well. The washing machine is repaired; (the pump/timer) were shot. I did a load already to test it as the repairman recommended, and guess what, it started to rain! So I had to use the dryer, which was not possible the last time. Al

Did you know that "In 1938, a hurricane put downtown Providence, Rhode Island, under 10 feet of ocean." ?
Did you know that "The waves generated by that storm were so huge that they literally shook the earth" ?; And that, "seismographs in Alaska picked up their impact five thousand miles away.".? from, THE PERFECT STORM by Sebastian Junger

Read the book and be ready to leave the shoreline as soon as the civil authorities say so. It's so sad, when people refuse to leave, then they want to leave in the height of the storm and cannot be rescued, and they die, swept away by the surge.
May we all be safe this hurricane season. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Classifying Spotty Showers

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2010 19:49:29 -0500

Good Evening!

This evening in the weather report of the local news, the weather lady said that at most we should expect some spotty showers. Not long after, it RAINED! I really think those spotty showers should be classified as Big or Small spotty showers. Did that ever come down! I hope that does not mean that the grass will grow fast. I just mowed the lawn today! Are we ever satisfied? When we had a drought we wished it would rain. Now it rains ever so often and we wish it does not rain as much so that the grass does not grow. A report on TV last night showed the winter storms and how people interviewed wished for Spring and Summer. Now it's sizzling and they're wishing for cold weather. How soon people forget.

The Regional Doppler Radar is showing many spotty showers coming our way. Maybe they are the forerunners of the Tropical Wave that should arrive here on Wednesday night.

"A typical hurricane encompasses a million cubic miles of atmosphere and could provide all the electric power needed by the United States for three or four years". From The Perfect Storm by Sebastian Junger

If you don't want to buy the book, you can get it from the Library. Live, read, learn more, especially about what we can expect from any hurricane this season. The couple I mentioned in my previous report, were not prepared in the least for ANDREW as you read. They had to fill the tub with water for their personal needs, including drinking, and then finally had to jump into it when the hurricane was at it horrendous heights. Lucky for them the baby did not decide to arrive that night!

Don't let this quiet fool us. Be in a state of hurricane preparedness mode. Always keep an eye to the weather. God bless you.

Isabel

- Good Morning St Croix

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2010 05:13:34 -0700 (PDT)

What another beautiful morning to wake up to! The temperature is right at 81with a light breeze blowing. It has been a hot past couple of days! Managed to catch some rays on Sunday by the pool (strap marks appeared) and yesterday was also a nice treat, although got stuck at my desk working most of the day. Today is also shaping up to be another beautiful day. Cell service finally came back to us around 330pm yesterday. Found out it was the 2G tower that had received damage from the storm last week. Our neighbor has an Iphone and he never lost service he said, but he is 3G. Hmm...modern technology, gotta love it. The Blackberry and I have a love hate relationship that has taken many years to form, so if the 2G tower didn't come up soon, I was going to be stressing!

Looking at the radar map and we are forecasted for 30% chance of rain today (as always) but they dropped it to 20% for the next 2 days! We hardly ever see 20%, it always seems to be stuck on 30%! I see a nice colorful blob in the southern islands, hoping that it does not develop into anything nasty. Off to enjoy the beautiful morning with a stroll on the beach. Have a Safe and Happy Tuesday!

- Types of Storms to Fear

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 23:01:35 -0500

Good Night, Folks!

Here's something to suggest for a quiet season. Read the book THE PERFECT STORM by Sebastian Junger. If you have seen the movie, then you must read the book. It came first and it contains information not provided in the book. It will give you a spine chilling account of a hurricane, how it forms, and how much power it generates, etc. etc.
There's information in that book that I'm sure you've never heard. Did you know that birds drown in flight? That tropical birds can get caught up in the eye of a hurricane for a week?

The perfect storm is one of the storms I fear. The one that consists of three different systems, one of them being a hurricane. This event --the perfect storm really happened and It can happen again right in our neighborhood.

The other one I fear is the one that comes unannounced. Like the "phantom storms". Today I saw, by chance, Storm Stories on the Weather Channel. On a perfectly quiet day, perhaps too quiet, a woman took her two sons for a sail. It was the first time she was doing this by herself. The weather was quiet. Two guys went fishing with their young sons. The meteorologists were quiet too. Somehow or other, out of the clear blue sky came a storm, a powerful storm. They were all caught by surprise. Miraculously they all lived to tell about it. They were all sure they were going to die including the Coast Guard search and rescue teams. It was a horrible experience as we can all well imagine.

In the movie, THE PERFECT STORM, you get a feel of the towering waves, you're in the midst of it. However, if you have not seen the movie, read the book first, then get the DVD. I highly advise it during this current lull in the season. And make sure everything is in place.!!

I could not believe how this couple, about to have a baby, were totally nil about the approaching HURRICANE ANDREW. No shutters, no plywod, no drinking water!! That hurricane had traveled a distance before it made landfall in Florida. There's more than enough time to prepare. There's no valid excuse in a case like this. Instead of going around saying, "Oh, this is going to be bad...it's going to be bad." Do something about it! And don't forget to help the children prepare with the new book especially for that, Time to Get Ready...A Hurricane is Coming to Our Town by Jill Klaskin Press.

I have to stop watching TV. I get so exasperated with what I hear! I talk back to the TV. That's when you know that I am getting too involved. So, after all this I hope to get some sleep this night. Good night and God bless you.

Isabel

- A Chance to Relax.?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2010 17:02:07 -0500

A Happy Sunday evening to all,

It seems that some weather experts are taking time off during the course of this next and last week in July, because all is quiet. Nothing to report. Well, I'm glad it's quiet. With my family still away this week it gives me a chance to spruce up the garden and take care of all the final touches before they arrive. Gardening is best when you don't have to contend with rainy, stormy conditions.

The dust is doing a fine job! I checked all the way back to the African coast and there is nothing at all to indicate any action any time soon. However, let us not forget those "phantom storms" as I like to call them. They are hidden. Somehow or other, they are there and suddenly burst out taking advantage of the smallest window of opportunity.

Anyway, enjoy each day. Do something for someone the first chance you get. Smile. Greet someone who does not expect it. A smile goes a long way. When we lived in Chile some years back, there was a motto, "Un gesto amable no cuesta nada." It means that an act of kindness does not cost anything. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Dust - Good and Bad !

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2010 22:50:42 -0500

Good night to All!

I just finished seeing the program WHEN WEATHER CHANGED HISTORY. Amazing! Here we are being protected from storms by Saharan Dust. That's good! On the other hand, it was a dust storm that prevented the American Hostages in Iran from being rescued. Everything was in place. The transport plane had landed and waited with waning hope for the choppers which got confused in the growing cloud of dust.They made it, and unfortunately, due to a "freak" accident, one of the choppers collided with the airplane causing an explosion. Eight men died. Allah was thanked for causing the dust storm that botched the rescue, and the hostages were dispersed making another rescue attempt impossible. The hostages were eventually released. This program will most probably be repeated on Sunday if you're interested in seeing it.

Dust. It's good as long as it's hovering over the Atlantic. May it stay out there. Have a Happy Sunday and may God bless you.
All the best with your endeavors.

Isabel

Isabel

- Blue skies

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2010 06:27:53 -0700 (PDT)

Good Morning! Awoke about 530 to a heavy downpour, so stayed in bed. Reawoke to a pretty nice morning now. The sun is trying hard to make it's debut, but the clouds are holding it back a little. I just checked the radar and we might be in for a small shower or two later in the day, but all is looking good for St. Croix to have one of our famous beautiful days. I checked the cistern yesterday and we are at 7 feet of water....that was down from 3 feet last weekend! So, yipppeee yahhooo, no waterman a coming here for a while! ATT cell service is STILL down here on the remote east end by Grapetree for some reason. It has been out since Tuesday. The ATT 800 number appears baffled by it, so off I trot to Sunny Isle today to see if the local store can help me. One never realizes how our lives rely so much on electronics (computers, cell fones etc) until we cannot use them. Parents are in Louisiana and spoke to them this morning and they said they are having a nice morning so far. It appears Bonnie has decided to fall apart in the Gulf, which is great news. BUT, as we all know Mother Nature can do anything she wants, so always be cautious. I talked to a girlfriend in Houma, Louisiana and she has been so busy with getting her kids situated for upcoming school and completing their summer activities that she said she had not even known there was an impending storm. After a good poking at, she emailed last night and said she is on top of it now and she just needed that gentle reminder to be aware during this nasty season! So, please please always stay aware of everything happening. (She is 30 minutes from the Gulf of Mexico and let her guard down!) Well, off I go before it gets to be too hot. Have a wonderful weekend!

Susan

- No Whining, Please!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2010 15:40:58 -0500

Good Afternoon!

Is it really possible that people are really whining about the lack of storms? Just because some 23 named storms were predicted for this season, they expect them to show a better turn out by now. Well, it so happens, that July is usually quiet around our neck of the woods. However, if you notice the Saharan Air Layer chart indicates that whatever waves are coming off the coast of Africa are either breaking up or are being pushed down to the south. The predicament here is that the dust doesn't fully extend across, which means that the waves are curving up towards us. I've been noticing this pattern. According to Dave, who peps us up every now and then with one of his updates, Saharan dust is common for the month of July. This month is coming to a rapid close and we'll be entering the peak months of the season. So, if you're all set and ready to go at the first sign of trouble, you're in good shape. No need to whine about the high cost of insurance, the expense of shutters, the hoarding of water and non-perishable goods, and most of all the lack of storms to justify all of that.!! Ha! Isn't it comical? We pray daily that we do not get hurricanes and we wonder why the season is so slow! Helloooooo!

Florida is being visited by Tropical Storm BONNIE today. They are getting the same treatment we received, according to the Weather Chanel, gusty wind, heavy rain, the usual stormy conditions we experience in a vigorous wave as we did with BONNIE before it became a named storm.

Our next wave was predicted for tomorrow. We may get some squally weather over the weekend. I hope my clothes drips out enough on the lines outside (see yesterday's report) so that I can throw them in the dryer. Thanks for the concern and words of encouragement I receive from the wonderful correspondents in the neighborhood. God bless you. Keep smiling!

Isabel

- Surprise! Surprise! It's raining!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2010 17:01:49 -0500

Good Afternoon, neighbors and beyond!

What a beautiful, blue sky, just speckled here and there with little puffy, white clouds. It was very sunny and everything looked such a bright, kelly green; the flowers looked extra pretty. So, after much reverie, I decided to do a load of laundry. It was a perfect afternoon after so much rain the last few days. We, by the way, always take advantage of the solar energy to dry the clothes on lines, that also provides a type of exercise for the body, the arms, and so on.

All that is fine. However, all of a sudden it started getting VERY dark and the breeze was cold! WHAT! I did not know it was going to rain! That's what I get for not checking the sat imagery on Stormcarib first. ( There it was, the tail of TD #3 was brushing by, and still is.) Well, I thought, no problem, mon! I will throw everything in the dryer, that's why we changed the damaged vent hose so that on rainy days we can use the dryer if we had to do such a thing as laundry on a rainy day!

Then, sometime later I heard a continuous, unusual sound coming from the Washer. How exasperating! The water refused to flow out! Now what! I transferred the soggy clothes to the large sink next to the Washer and ran water into it to rinse by hand. I went to the computer to write my traveling family an email as it filled and forgot about the running water until it overflowed! What next! What next?? I'm stuck with a sink full of wet clothes, which I cannot wring out by hand as I'm currently handicapped in one finger. And the lines will not take anything too heavy, besides it's going to continue raining it seems. All I need is to see all the clothes on the ground. I think at that point I'll just check myself in somewhere!! Ha!

Anyway, thank God for life. Today, a grieving family said goodbye to a young man, 35 yrs. old. My troubles are nothing by comparison. Be well, be happy, and may God always bless you and your loved ones.

Isabel

P.S. It's too late to call the repairman as yet, but does anyone know why the water does not flow out? I will also check the trouble shooting page of the manual, maybe I can still learn something before the day is out.

- Colorful Trailing Moisture...

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2010 22:55:05 -0500

A Good Night to all!

We did not get much in the way of rain in Christiansted, but most likely Fredriksted did as the sky was very dark out west. There were some flashes and rumblings of thunder in the evening with a soft drizzle, otherwise, the day went by without the drama of the day before. We were told to expect some more active weather, though not as vigorous, this coming weekend. I had a lovely house and garden day. It was perfect for weeding. The turtles were also out exploring the larger space on the lawn. I managed to harvest a large Sweet Sap before the birds got it; one was hanging half eaten, and two smaller ones were on the ground. My indoor projects are almost done and the family will be returning soon. They are happy that so far the Atlantic has been quiet.

There are many waves coming off the coast of Africa and there's also dust. The wave that was looking rather formidable has lost its wind and looks ragged. One has to be careful about discarding these systems so fast. They tend to look ragged while, in reality, they are just reorganizing themselves. We have to keep monitoring them. Be safe and enjoy the fruits of the season. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Good Morning!!

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2010 07:09:15 -0700 (PDT)

This morning is certainly a treat to see the sun trying to peak through the clouds. I am running around trying to get my laundry done and hung on the line before the predicted rain begins again. So, far so good, but the radar has some nice colorful blobs to the south and southest of us. Lots of wet soggy towels from yesterday mopping up the floors. I told my friend this morning I LOVE the rain but can always do without the lightening that we have had for 2 days! Talked to the internet provider this morning and they said they are going to try to have the East End back up by tomorrow morning. They have not had the chance to get anyone on the tower to check it out with the bad weather. The cell serivce is also out on this end of the island too

It went out Monday afternoon. So, I am patiently waiting for that to come back on too! I need to try to venture out this afternoon to get errands done, so crossing my fingers the waters have gone down enough so I can get things accomplished.

Stay safe everyone and try to always be alert as to what is going on about you, especially when it starts to rain. Things can change at the drop of a hat unfortuantely!

Susan

- A 3D Day: Dark, Damp, Dreary!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2010 20:54:56 -0500

Good Evening!

It was a perfect day for indoor projects! Nothing at all dreary about that, especially with some nice music on the side and comfort food to see me through. With the internet down most of the day it was impossible to get anything out. Hope that this is not going to happen too often. The day started out kind of mixed as if it could not decide what to hand us. Well, to my surprise I heard from a few friends that we had been pummeled all night by thunderstorms. I fell into such a deep sleep the night before that I don't think I moved once. I was dead to the world. I did not hear a thing. Very unusual.

By noon, it started getting kind of dark. I was amazed at how accurate the weather forecast has been. "Thunderstorms in the afternoon..." And that's how it was all afternoon and has not stopped raining since; sometimes lighter, sometimes heavier. On the Weather Channel the wide area of heavy rain was shown covering the Virgin Islands with St. Croix being mentioned as being hit first and then beyond. It's coming from south to north. To me it seems like a wheel of rain, a rotation, it goes round and round. As a matter of fact, it will be investigated tomorrow from below and above to find out if it has the ingredients proper for a Depression. The general belief is that it could very well be BONNIE getting ready to make her appearance. The computer models have this system going towards Florida.

Behind this system there are other tropical waves moving along from east to west; most of them will pass near us or through us. As we approach the peak months of the hurricane season, Aug., Sept., and October, we will see more and more of this activity on a heightened level. NOAA went so far as to predict 23 named storms. We've only seen one so far, ALEX. That makes the dubious lose confidence and let their guard down. Watch and pray and learn about hurricane preparedness.

There's a lot of flooding out there in all the affected region. Be safe if you must go out. The rain should last at least another day, if not longer. The next system is expected on Saturday, according to the local weather lady on TV2. Have a good night and God bless us all.

Isabel

- It begins again!

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2010 10:16:37 -0700 (PDT)

Well, the dark clouds moved in about an hour ago and then the rain poured in. Rained hard for about 45 mintues, but now it is just a steady rain. It is a total whiteout right now, so I know the heavy rains are coming. It is thundering, but no lightening yet. Unlike yesterday when I seemed to eat everything in sight due to the lightening strikes around. Called Broadband VI this morning since the internet is still down from yesterday and they said that they were struck by lightening yesterday and that they are working to repair as quick as possible. Again, on the ATT wireless stick, so as long as my cell service stays up I can report! Right after Hurricane Omar in October 2008, we had to wait a month for the internet to come back to life. I remember driving to downtown to sit on the picinic tables to try to get a good cell signal so I could work!

I tried to check the cistern level this morning, but my dip stick was soaked to the bone so I wasn't able to get an accurate reading. With the looks of the water over the top of the pool rolling down the hillside, we had quite a bit. Must get my rain guage fixed soon! (mental note!)

I just popped my head out of the door to snap this foto. Oh yikes, water coming in at the door....Well electric is now out too. Very strong winds right now and there is the lightening :( Signing off for a bit until this passes...

- Invest 97L spending Time with us..

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2010 23:39:41 -0500

Good Night/Good morning!

It's been a very busy day. Got to do lots of indoor work because of the torrential rains and very stormy conditions. I thought, "This looks like it could be something.." Well, this morning the National Hurricane Center (NHC) stamped it Invest 97 L.. Computer models has it moving into the Gulf, or over to the Caribbean Sea, etc...According to Jim Cantore on the Weather Chanel it has signs of developing. Wind shear might inhibit it somewhat. St. Croix got three inches today, more like ten in my opinion. There's a flash flood watch which is in effect until tomorrow, Tuesday evening. I missed one meeting today, it looks as I will have to meet the one tomorrow as well if things shape up the way the forecast goes. More heavy rain is expected as Invest 97 L continues moving through at 15 miles per hour.

The weather lady on our local channel pointed out another ominous looking wave that should arrive by the weekend. A friend called earlier to ask me what it's going to be like, weather wise, on Saturday. She wants to have a birthday party at Gentle Winds for her three year old. (I guess some of my friends think that I am a weather guru!) It does not look good for the weekend. The Weather Channel has this system circled as a potential disturbance with a chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. It is not circled at Stormpulse; either they are late or don't consider it a threat. In the next several hours we will find out more.

I wish you all a good night's rest. Be well and happy. God bless you.

Isabel

- Rain finally stopped

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2010 14:01:49 -0700 (PDT)

Holy Cow has it been quite a day on the East end. The rain started about 11am and just quite at 4pm. We had it all, a nice steady rain with lots of lightening and lots and lots of thunder boomers. The Internet is still out, so thank goodness for my Sierra wireless stick! I was quite impressed with WAPA through the whole rainy day. We only lost power 3 times and it was for about 10 minutes total! My rain guage is on the fritz so I do not have a rainfall reading :( So, will check the cistern in the morning and report! The poor kitties have visited the balcony since the rain has stopped and the poor things are soaked to the bone. I laid down 2 beach towels for them to roll around on to dry off. Very comical to see them grooming each other and rubbing on the towels. Just checked the radar and it looks like we are still in for another round of rough weather. I told my husband this afternoon, I don't remember when it rained for hours straight in a very very long time. Have a great Monday evening! Susan

- Stormy weather - stay safe

By Jill Fisher <Heygirllll at aol.com>
Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2010 12:28:56 -0400

We're experiencing heavy downpours, lightning and LOUD thunder.

~Jill~

Heads up:
Local Severe Weather Alert for Christiansted, VI (00820)

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
PUERTO RICO... CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND 
VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN 
JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST... VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR. IN 
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS. * THROUGH 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON * AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS 
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO 
HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL 
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP 
TERRAIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD 
TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS 
REQUIREMENTS... ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP 
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE 
OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE CAREFUL 
WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE 
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.


Sent from my iPhone

- BIG RAIN = Dengue Fever !

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2010 10:38:27 -0500

Good morning!

It's raining "pitchforks" right now. Whiteout conditions! My weather dog ran to hide under one of the beds when he heard thunder. He does not wait around for change! This weather is going to continue for the next couple of days. There are a few systems fooling around in the atmosphere and are obviously having fun.

This morning there was a report on the radio about the above record rainfall we are getting this year. As a matter of fact, the health experts are urging everyone to beware of Dengue Fever. The numbers are rising in the territory and there have been several deaths. They want us to make sure that water does not collect anywhere. Any receptacle that can collect water should be turned over. Water for pets should be checked often and changed if they don't drink it fast enough. Unfortunately, there are old tires, notorious for collecting and hiding water where ever they lay, sometimes hidden by bushes along the way.

Mosquitoes lay their eggs in standing water and as their population increase, so does the danger of Dengue Fever. This tropical rain is a favorite for mosquitoes, they know they will thrive in the warmth and with so much water! Hurray! Now, we have to do everything possible to win the battle and not be a casualty. We have to use all the armament available on the market, and especially take an inspection tour around the house/garden to make sure that we're not making it too cozy for the mosquitoes while putting our lives in danger.

That having been said, I can tell you, it is still raining with "gusto" out there. I may have to go in a boat to my meeting this afternoon, unless we have a power outage and the electric gate does not open. Enjoy your day as best you can and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- Another Screaming Eagle!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2010 11:46:45 -0500

Good Sunday to all!

Judging from the huge BLOB, on the the satellite imagery of the Caribbean Hurricane Network, we're in for a lot of rain. And why not! We haven't had any since yesterday! The weather experts have a name for certain waves, the one that passed us was referred to as a Screaming Eagle, because the wave had the noticeable shape of the head of an eagle. I noticed on another site that this current wave has increased in size. The bright orange color usually indicates convection (lightning and thunder). That being the case, it should be more than just a "weak" wave as has been reported. It is moving west northwest, so there's a good chance that being some 288 miles away, it will move up beyond our area, before it arrives. I don't mind if it thunders, but whenever it thunders that means there was lightning somewhere.

Lightning is very dangerous. My 99 yr. old father used to say that he was afraid of thunder. Lightning is the one to fear and it's possible he remembered the friend who was killed by a lightning strike and that strike was followed by thunder. Light travels faster than sound as we know, therefore, the delayed reaction of the one with the other. To me, thunder is like the voice of God. Awesome power! That's one way to scare the Hell out of us! (The combined effects of HUGO threw many, if not all, to their knees begging the Lord to spare them.) I will report later on the results of all this show of color. We were told to expect it tonight! At the moment it's partly cloudy, or partly sunny; the sea is choppy and reef is white with foam. Stay well, enjoy the day. It's the Lord's gift to us. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Scary Time is Hurricane Time!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2010 20:47:36 -0500

Greetings again! The little girl this morning said a hurricane is scary and she's right! What were those trains that very frightened Crucians heard in the middle of the night during Hurricane Hugo.? Tornadoes! Many children were traumatized by that hurricane. There's no need for that if they are included in the preparations and adults stay calm enough to handle whatever situation can arise at such a time. Some people crawled on all "fours" to safety underneath a parked vehicle outside in the raging storm just before their house was blown away! How does one prepare a child for something like that? Talk with them about it from now. Give them chores to do as you prepare. We always feel so much better when the hurricane has passed and everyone is safe.

Keep an eye on Low Potential Disturbance # 1 to the east of the Windward islands! Regardless, of whether it develops or not, it can be scary. BIG Hug to the little ones out there! God bless you!

Isabel

- Potential Disturbance #1 !

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2010 20:21:57 -0500

Good evening!

Rain! Rain! Rain! And lots more rain in the forecast with another wave coming through on Sunday night. However, the ALERT is for the Low Potential Disturbance # 1 that should be of immediate concern to all of us. It is traveling west northwest, is some 700 miles from the Windward islands and it is a wave that has been monitored since it left the African coast. Just last night on one of our local news programs it was mentioned as "Something to keep an eye on.." If you have never checked Stormpulse, it's a great way to track these systems. As I mentioned before, Plaza East Supermarket has a large flatscreen tv right at the entrance of the grocery section with Stormpulse on all the time. This current system is circled with yellow to indicate that it has a low potential of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours, however, as it moves closer conditions could become more favorable for development. It is not too far from the chain of islands, so please monitor this system carefully as it seems to have a rotation. Make sure all preparations are in place.

Today, I had an opportunity to speak with some children about hurricanes. When I ask, "What is a hurricane?" This sweet, little girl said in her cutest voice, "It is scarey..." As for preparation, one of the boys said, " picking up things around the house"
and "getting food and things we need.." They all said there's wind and rain, and so on. A hurricane is definitely a scarey prospect for all of us, but most of all, for the little ones. They should be adequately prepared. One excellent way is by reading to them or having them read TIME TO GET READY....A Hurricane is Coming to Our Town by Jill Klaskin Press. In a most colorful and interesting manner they will learn and know the importance of hurricane preparedness.

Now, let's do our homework in Meteorology. Start monitoring, from every angle, this disturbance that's heading in our direction. And PRAY that is does not mean trouble with a capital "T". Have a wonderful Sunday. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Dark clouds are moving in!

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2010 06:36:35 -0700 (PDT)

Well, all of our company has left after being on island for over 3 weeks! Whew, loved the company, but LOVE my quietness too! I just looked at the satellite map and goodness where did all of the colorful blobs come from! They were not there yesterday morning when I looked. Right now it is 79 outside (holy cow!) and the air is very cool and the skies are very dark. No rain, lightening or thunder yet just lots of wind, but with that cool breeze that is ripping through the house, it is not too far off at all. Checked the cistern last night and we are down to 2 1/2 feet again, so I am praying for all of the rain that we can handle! I told the hubby that a good steady rain for maybe 3 days will fill us up to where we need to be to avoid a delivery from the Waterman. Don't forget to keep your eyes on the weather at all time as anything can crop up at any given time!! Reinventoring today for my supplies for the house to make sure that we stay prepared! Try to enjoy the weekend, I know I am with my warm ups on (heheh) and my new book my sister in law left for me to read! Take Care and Happy Saturday,

Susan

- NOAA: "100 % chance of rain!"

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2010 17:49:18 -0500

Good evening!

We have a little Swiss Weather Station. It's a little house with two doorways. A little man with an umbrella comes out when rain is in the forecast. A little woman comes out when it's fair. They both stay in if it's undecided. The little man is out! No wonder! With 100% chance of rain in the forecast for tonight, he's well prepared with his umbrella. I wonder where he's going without the little woman. Hmmm.. I think they're going to use one umbrella. Cozy! It better be made for two with all that rain!

For a moment this afternoon, it got very dark. I was sure we were going to have a deluge! The threatening clouds moved on to Fredriksted, but between the cloudiness and the haziness visibility is only 9 miles according to some information. I raced outside with the dogs to get some food to the turtles, I got carried away doing some gardening, and spent a good hour outside trying to get things looking good in case the visiting children from the Housing Project are coming tomorrow morning to run around in the garden. The "100 %" chance of rain holds for tomorrow as well. That, if it happens, is not good for all the outdoor activities this weekend. That's bad! But we have to look at the bright side, we're not dealing with a hurricane, it's only rain.

Where is BONNIE? A tune just crossed my thoughts, "MY BONNIE LIES OVER THE OCEAN, MY BONNIE LIES OVER THE SEA...! And guess what! A typhoon walloped the Phillipines, lots of casualties, people missing, and many are homeless. It's now a Tropical Storm heading towards Vietnam. That could have been our BONNIE. Be thankful, folks! Let's do the best with what we have. God bless you!

Isabel

- Unstable Weather!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2010 17:37:35 -0500

Good evening!

Around 5:00 p.m. we experienced very squally weather. It came and went fast, but it was strong. It could be the beginning of a TW which is in the forecast for tomorrow. I looked at the first image on to stormcarib and there's a small blob to our east. It extends a way back, perhaps that is why we hear of rain through the weekend. That may not necessarily be the case though. Unfortunately, in the past, we've had to cancel or postpone events due to the forecast and then the weather turns out to be sunny and beautiful. I have a similar preoccupation as the Missionaries of Charity are planning to bring several children to run around our garden and have special treats at the end of a week of activities for them. Unless we have dry weather they already have a backup plan in place for them. We'll not cancel until that morning if it's necessary. I guess it's a chance we all have to take. If only it would rain at night and the daytime be sunny. That's always my wish for visitors. Good luck to all visitors with outdoor plans in mind and may God bless you and keep you safe.

Isabel

Please keep the little ones in mind during the hurricane season. Get the new book geared for children ages 4 - 8. Title:
TIME TO GET READY... a Hurricane is Coming to Our Town! by Jill Klaskin Press. It is published by Black Rose Writing, their website: www.Black Rose Writing.com. The children should be well prepared in the event of a hurricane coming to town and this book will meet that need.

- Sea Surface Temperature

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2010 23:18:42 -0500

Good Night, Sleep tight!

But before we do, I want to share something I just read in Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderblog, in case you have not seen it. He wrote that the sea surface temp. in June was the warmest on record! Please read what correspondent Steve Donahue of Anguilla had to say today concerning the SST where he was diving. Very interesting. It is very quiet in the tropical Atlantic, but this could be the year for mega hurricanes. That's not a good thought to take to bed, not at all. That's why in addition to monitoring each wave, it's good to wake up each morning and open the PRESENT with thankfulness. God bless us all.

Isabel

- What's that !?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2010 15:43:08 -0500

Good Afternoon!

It's probably nothing that looks like something. Last evening the Weather Channel's new hurricane expert, Mr. Knab, pointed at a large wave emerging from Africa. He said we need to watch this one. It is not in the dust as yet, up to a few minutes ago when I checked. I studied it move in a 9 frame animation. It definitely seems to have a rotation. I'm not an expert. All I can see is that the dust bowl in the Atlantic is not as dense as before; that being the case, this wave, which could mean trouble for us, can develop into something. That's why it's good to monitor these waves early. Besides, we are approaching the time when we should be ready for anything. I hope we are. Will check back later. Be safe out there.

Blessings,
Isabel

- A Stormy Night..

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2010 22:15:13 -0500

A good night to all!

What a surprise! A little storm has been raising havoc since early this evening. BUT, just yesterday the charming weather lady on the local news, said it was going to be a quiet week until Saturday when a Tropical wave will be affecting us. Huh? I guess there must have been a crack in the dust bowl in the Atlantic and a wave got through undetected! I think pretty soon that that dust bowl is going to break apart all together. It 's getting overwhelmed with so many waves crossing over. We have to keep an eye to the east.! Be well, be happy, and God bless you

Isabel

- Time to be Funny!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2010 12:36:59 -0500

Hi, all !

I was at one of the supermarkets this morning - PUEBLO - to be exact, and I could not believe my eyes. What?? A shelf with D-Icer including scraper, you know, to get all that ice off of your windshield. Ha! What a laugh! Then, I start thinking....a few days ago, the temp. was 46 in Christiansted according to the Weather Channel "local on the 8's" report. Well. it was almost double that, but the manager probably took that seriously and decided to stock up on D-Icer.!! Again, you never know, maybe Mother Nature is planning a surprise! Be well, and happy, and thank God for life!

Blessings,
Isabel

- Cloudy, Breezy, Sun Day!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2010 19:23:45 -0500

Good Evening!

What a mix of weather today. The only thing that did not happen were the thunderstorms that were predicted. But then again, who knows, that could have been happening on the other end of the island. Many people were geared up with outdoor events to see the final of the World Cup between the Netherlands and Spain. It was great weather for hanging out, outdoors. Spain won! Sorry for the Dutch fans. They certainly played well and got the second spot. I guess that's not good enough. Weather wise it has been good enough. All eyes are focused on the far eastern Atlantic wondering perhaps what's going on. Why is it so quiet. Shhhhhh! Don't wake the sleeping giants! In the meanwhile, start preparing the little ones for a hurricane. How about that? They should understand, first of all, that during this time of year hurricanes form in the Atlantic and we have to prepare for such an event. One such book that children ages 4 - 8 would not only enjoy but learn lots on how to prepare for a hurricane was recently published. This book is a must read Time to Get Ready... A Hurricane is Coming to Our Town by Jill Klaskin Press. You'll be finding out more about this book soon. It is better to prepare them gently with time than to wait until a hurricane is on the way, everyone is nervous, and the children are not properly prepared to handle the situation. So, thank God for this quiet time. Let's use it well.

Blessings,
Isabel

- 46 degrees in Christiansted!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 09:31:42 -0500

Good Morning!

That's right! It was on the TV screen and it was said aloud during the local forecast given every 8 minutes! I did a double take. There it was, 46 degrees! You think the guy that read the information would know that that could not be correct. Are we dealing with robots? It makes me wonder sometimes. No, it was not 46 degrees, more like 75 heading for a high of 90 today.

As Dave mentioned, there are some blobs out there. I think that if it were not for the plume of dust that's protecting us, we would already have had some serious storms out there.That one blob heading northwest looks promising. Maybe I don't have to wash my car after all. We'll see if it does come up this high. We cannot always rely on Computers to tell us what we are seeing. It's best to do our own study and prepare accordingly.Have a wonderful day. I'll check back later.

Blessings,
Isabel

For you, World Cup Fans, I want you to know that Germany put together their team 6 weeks before the tournament. Spain has had the same team for 3 years. As we all know, Spain won, but considering that Germany won a few 4 - 0, that's not bad for such a baby of a team. These, of course, are all professional players with other teams in their country, but unless a team practices together for a long time, there's bound to be problems beating a more experienced team. How do I know all this? My family is part German and they're touring the country right now, having a great time.

- Hurricane Season's Starry Sky

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Jul 2010 20:54:23 -0500

Good night, all!

This evening there was a ten minute power outage and I was delighted with the heavenly sight, a trillion stars at one glance! What an amazing sight! Hey, if that's the only way we can see the stars, then....... I'll say no more. Be careful what we wish for, right? Shortly after the power was back on I heard an emergency vehicle speeding by. Aha! I bet someone knocked down a utility pole! That's life in the tropics! One gets used to it, after a while. Besides, we have to make the best of everything. Think of all the things that can be done during a power outage. It takes little imagination, but one of the most innocent things one can do is sit out on the deck, have another happy hour and enjoy the beautiful sky. Try it next time, unless you have a better idea.

Big, angry looking clouds came by this afternoon. I think we got about two drops out of them. I prefer that to what they are having along the Texas-Mexico border today and for the past week. ALEX dropped some 34 inches of rain and now more with this Tropical Depression that followed the same path as ALEX. One weather blogger said there are going to be many T.Ds this season, how depressing! Everyone, or just about, is preparing for a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic. Last year it was the Pacific side that had to deal with one storm after another, BIG ones at that, now all eyes are on this side. The rush is on more than ever to find a way to stop the oil from spewing out. BP said it will take another two weeks. That's cutting it a bit tight. Trouble with a capital T is on the horizon. We known that BONNIE is soon going to start looking for ALEX.

So much for that. Let's see what tomorrow brings. Tonight, turn off all the lights, enjoy the starry sky and be thankful.
God bless you.

Isabel

- Saharan Dust vs. Tropical Waves

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 7 Jul 2010 15:33:04 -0500

A Good Afternoon to all!

The T.Waves are coughing their way through all the Saharan dust. That's good. As long as the dust is just off the coast of Africa, the Waves don't have much of a chance to develop early. We have a lot of dusty haze around here too, and it shows on the vehicles as well. For those who like squeaky clean cars, you just have to wash it everyday if it's parked outside, or get rid of all the junk in the garage and park it inside. (I wish I could do that!) Seriously, the dust has its pros and cons. Good for keeping storms down and bad for the many who suffer health wise as a result. So, what should we have, dust? or no dust? I'll take the latter for the sake of those who are affected by it. (And I still wish I could put my car in the garage.)

We are expecting some rain from the T.Wave on Saturday. Depending on the weathermen, it could pass close to us or farther south. So, we'll just have to plan the day according to how it turns out. Whatever the case, enjoy the day and be thankful for life. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Days ah comin' !!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 6 Jul 2010 22:34:29 -0500

Good night islanders and beyond!

That's right! "Days ah comin" and I don't mean days of the week either, I mean "They are coming". There is a big wave in the middle of the Atlantic or closer which should show it's presence by Saturday, hopefully only as a wave. I heard about it today on the evening news and can see it on Stormcarib's satellite imagery. Behind that, just off the coast of Africa, not too far from the Cape Verde islands is a whopper! It's a Low already at that point. It's barometric pressure is 1002, a storm in its own right. When they hold together that far out, and the pressure continues to drop below 1000, we are looking at trouble. The Cape Verde storms are the biggest, most powerful. Are we going to have an early Cape Verde season.? If so, God help us.

After some rumblings of thunder this morning the tropical wave moved out of the area.. The afternoon wore on with a heavy, dense sky but no rain in Christiansted. Uruguay and the Netherlands battled during the semi-final World Cup match today; it was definitely not an easy match for either of them.

Keep an eye to the weather. Let's monitor those waves. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Wave, Goodbye!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 20:27:50 -0500

Good night. folks!

That ominous looking tropical wave arrived just before 3 p.m. with whiteout conditions and gusty wins. Impressive, short, and sweet. How can anything like that pose a problem for anyone? Before I knew it, it was gone! After the meeting which was almost canceled, I returned to do some gardening in what was left of our daylight. The sun was peeking through the remaining clouds. Tonight and tomorrow hold a high percentage of rain in the forecast, but I think that should not materialize. Rain or shine, I have work to do, either way I'm going to get something done, health permitting.

When you live alone, even temporarily, get LIFE ALERT. I saw the ad on TV. I often wonder what would happen if I had an accident and there was absolutely no one around but the pets. Yikes! I tend to put myself in precarious situations. Of course, if I got hit by a tree it would not help, like the day, I was mysteriously yanked to the side and (WHAM!) the half sawed tree I was working on broke off when I had my back turned to it, and came crashing down right where I stood a few seconds earlier. (Don't believe in Guardian Angels? Think again!) It was a papaya tree, but nevertheless a solid trunk. It would have been fatal; a pity on such a beautiful, sunny day.

The clock is ticking, soon BONNIE will make an appearance. Where? Only God knows. Monitor the suspects, the tropical waves, until they're off the "dangerous" list. God bless us all and keep us safe!

Isabel

- Sunny and quite Breezy!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 10:48:04 -0500

Hello fellow correspondents along the island chain!

As I read from your reports the rain has arrived. We are still having dry, sunny weather here, however, that should change later. The breeze makes it a pleasure to work outside in the garden, but I have a lot of indoor stuff to take care of and I need the rain to keep me inside. So, I hope it rains, I need to get started on some important indoor projects the sooner the better. Leave it to me, I prefer puttering about outside. I've been battling the "spaghetti" on the bushes. Anyone has any idea how to be rid of that!? I understand it's medicinal. Well, I hope it's good for stress! If so, I need to boil and drink a whole potful. That stuff seems to thrive especially at this time of year. I'd appreciate any input from anyone out there. I laugh when I remember how as a child I used to pretend it was spaghetti with sauce and stir it around in a little pot.

Back to this current disturbance, it does look, as someone mentioned, that it could pose a threat down the road. For us, the rain is often a welcome thing, especially when the cisterns are low. Right now they are full as I expect they'll be for a long time as long as these Waves keep coming. Let's hang in there and be ready for whatever comes. God bless us all!

Isabel

- The BLOB-potential disturbance #4!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2010 22:25:11 -0500

Not a good thing to sleep on, but yes, I just saw it on Stormpulse.

Low potential disturbance #4 is on 14.3 N 59.6 W (I'm not sure if this is the current position at this hour.) "An area of disturbed weather approaching the Lesser Antilles will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Leeward and Northern Windward islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days..."

There it is. It's quiet now weather wise; some music in the distance, the Tropical night sounds all around, but that should be changing very soon. Monitor this system! All the best.

Blessings,
Isabel

- BLOB Alert !!!!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2010 20:49:15 -0500

Good Evening, folks! Hope it was a happy 4th!

Dave is right. I've been studying this BLOB to our east on and off throughout the day. It does look very impressive, as if something is going to come of this one. I have not been able to get NOAA on their Weather Station, so I have not gotten enough information on this system. The Weather Channel folks did say this morning that they are keeping an eye on it. It's quite possible it will be invest 97. I hope it will not be the tricky kind to develop right over us. I kind of expected July to be very active, because as we remember, the seawater in May was as warm as it is in July. I believe that with the warmer seawater, the activity will be earlier. The month of July is only just beginning and there are three areas of concern already!!

The Monterrey friends I was concerned about have arrived in St. Croix, but now there's another system with similar traits as ALEX following the same path. It will take that city a long time to recover from the catastrophic damage it sustained with the 34" of rain delivered by the storm. They don't need more rain!!

Are we prepared? I'm concerned about a slope behind us, which looks like it can come crashing down. It will not affect the house so much as the road above. I had someone here from Public Works take a look at it and he did agree that it was dangerous. He took photos to send to St.Thomas. There has not been another word since concerning this situation. Don't they usually wait for something really bad to happen before they do something? Well, I took other, more recent, photos since the last heavy rain we received from the Tropical Wave that was the beginning of ALEX. More deterioration took place. We'll see how it fares after more heavy rain with this Tropical Wave,

Get ready, get set, and God bless us all.

Isabel

- Rainy or Shiny 4th?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 2 Jul 2010 22:18:23 -0500

A Happy Fourth of July weekend to all of us who celebrate it ! The forecast sounds good for our next two days, but then it all goes down hill with the next tropical wave. One channel says it begins on Sunday evening, another says more like Monday. We need dry weather for good fireworks, we'll see.

The people in Monterrey are reeling from the torrential rains from ALEX. At least 20" were predicted; according to Dave about 34 " fell. It's a catastrophe of mega proportions. Not even the present government had seen anything like this before, nor had prepared accordingly. It goes to show that this year is going to be full of surprises. Our friends' daughter and family in
Monterrey are fine though without water and power. Getting around is a challenge since many streets and avenues are a mess of mud and debris. Some amazing video footage has been shown`on TV.

Are we prepared for a surprise of mega proportions this hurricane season? Let's take another look around and see what else we need to check off from our list. It's so easy to become complacent when the weather is nice and everything is moving along. The tropical waves are also on the move, across Africa, and into the Atlantic, and on the way to us. Dave calls them "foot soldiers wanting to be king"--they start out small and become BIG enough to make headlines.

Enjoy the celebrations, be safe out there, don't drink and drive.!

Blessings.
Isabel

- "Monitor" - the key word!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 1 Jul 2010 12:49:47 -0500

A good afternoon to all!

I was very concerned for the daughter, of some very good friends, who lives in Monterrey, Mexico with her family. I noticed that ALEX was turning more in that direction. Word back from the daughter was that it was not going to get close to them. Her Dad said that Monterrey is surrounded by mountains and that they hardly got any rain there. So much for that. Then later in the evening I heard the weatherman mentioning Monterrey and was showing how ALEX was making a beeline to that city, surrounded by mountains; a bleak scenario indeed. If it hit that city, the weatherman said it would cause catastrophic flooding, especially because of the high mountains around the city. My hope is that the 20" of rain expected with ALEX would not cause fatalities and that our friends' daughter can come to St. Croix with the grands this weekend as planned. I sent out the alert early in case there was any chance of them leaving before ALEX arrived. It is so important to monitor the storms. They have a mind of their own and can change paths previously announced. I'm anxious to find out how they fared.

Yesterday at this time we were anxious about another matter closer to home. We were contemplating the burial of our little Pomeranian pooch. It was a beautiful, clear day. The large Flamboyant tree at the Pet Cemetery in our lower garden was dropping bright red petals. Our family group gathered some of the petals to place on her place of rest. She was a Grand old Lady, worthy of respect.

The Saharan dust is battling the tropical waves, at the moment they are both sharing the skies, however, some rain is supposed to break through. All in all, a nice day to do some gardening, especially lawn mowing. And yes, referring to other correspondents' reports, there's an abundance of fruit thanks to all the rain we've been having. I received a tip recently which came from an old, know- it- all, man. If you want your tree to bear large, plentiful fruit, throw some constr. nails around the base of the tree. Bizarre, but it seems to work.

Memories of Marilyn. Is that the title of a book? Is it about Marilyn Monroe or Hurricane Marilyn..? Considering the season we're in, I'm sure Dave meant the latter. This year could have a repeat performance, that is the fear. Let's pray and watch, and hope. God bless you.

Isabel

- Beautiful day

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2010 18:05:12 -0700 (PDT)

What a beautiful Sunday this turned out to be!! The skies were so clear that when we went to the end of the driveway we could see St Thomas and the BVI's so clearly. Haven't seen that in quite some time!! It topped out at about 90 degrees today according to the old thermometer. It is right at 9pm and it is reading abut 83 right now, so should cool off nicely I hope for the evening. Hubby is already in bed resting for his strenuous week ahead. He is full throttle all weekend and when the weather is as beautiful as it was this weekend, he plays extra hard! The bugs are the only enemies I have at the moment. I had to scoop the pool again this evening before taking a dip to cool off. LOTS of flying ants and tiny black beetle type insects EVERYWHERE. Seven's Dust is my favorite!! Killed 2 more centipedes last night on the balcony, so the exterminator is on the list to call in the morning.

Looks like Alex has moved ashore on Belize with little damage and heading for the Gulf. I am still hoping everyone pays close attention to him as he exits into the Gulf and then makes his decision on where to go next!

Mom and Dad (in Louisiana) hit the Home Depot this weekend, so they are all set for hurricane season, thank goodness. Now, I must re-inventory myself and see what else I need here too to ensure I am also ready for this very active hurricane season that has been predicted.

We have family visiting tomorrow for 2 weeks, so Mother Nature, please be kind and spread your sunshine on us all!

Happy Sunday night and stay safe, wherever you may be!

- Yesterday and Today

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2010 19:07:52 -0500

These two days were identical, almost. The photo mentioned in the
previous post did not appear, so here it is; taken from our porch.
Hope tomorrow will bring some nice weather as well, especially for our
visitors.

Blessings,
Isabel

You have been sent 1 picture.


100626sunset.jpg

These pictures were sent with Picasa, from Google.
Try it out here: http://picasa.google.com/

Attachment: 100626sunset.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- Sunny Sunday!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2010 15:41:35 -0500

Greetings!

Even though we have rain in the forecast we haven't seen any, which is great as we had a farewell party for some wonderful friends today whom we are going to miss. Heavy downpours as we've had recently would have put a damper on the event. It has been sunny and very WARM! Someone was commenting that it's still so warm in spite of the rain. We are, after all, in the warmest months of the year; it's going to get warmer, and hotter as we go. (Thank God for air conditioning, where ever we can get it!) Be ready! A wild roller coaster ride awaits us. Alex started it off with Walter wrapping it up, or...? Is it really going to be as active as the experts have said.? Only Time will tell. So, stay tuned in to your favorite weather source, channel, radio station and be ahead of the next one. It should not be long before Bonnie appears somewhere in the Atlantic. Enjoy the rest of Sunday and don't forget to rest! God bless us all!

Isabel

The attached photo taken yesterday, by all appearances, shall repeat itself today.

- Blue Skies!!

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2010 04:58:26 -0700 (PDT)

Boy, what a good soaking the last few days! I am waking up this morning to a glimpse of some pretty blue skies. We had a very steady rain from about 5pm yesterday until into the wee hours of the morning. Even heard a clap of thunder and lightening that appeared to be fairly close by. Cats all curled up on the balcony fighting for the one little dry spot. Pool is tipping the top as we speak, which breaks my heart as the liquid gold rolls down the hill just a bit. Cistern is happy and the centipedes and ants are starting to appear in massive force. :( After all this time, I still squirm when I see a centipede, just don't like them at all. Scooped a small one out of the living room today, thank gosh it was dead..curled up and dried, so must have been there for a while and I didn't notice it! Managed to drizzle laundry detergent around the cat feeder outside to keep the pesky ants out of their bowl. That seems to have worked well. Must make note of that trick. I also noticed Isabel said that chalk works...thanks Isabel, chalk is also on my grocery list!

Looks like a nice day to enjoy the beach for some water activities. Humidity is in the 90's so I wait patiently for the breeze to roll in. One can always hope since not a leaf on the trees are blowing at this moment. The sun hasn't quite come out yet, but always crossing my fingers. Don't forget about the big Mango Melee festival tomorrow at the Botanical Gardens! Looks like nice weather is in store for the 14th annual celebration, which I might add is always not an event to miss on the island.

I am hoping that everyone in the Yucatan and Belize stay safe as the TS creeps on past them. Please stay attentive. Then into the Gulf it goes....definitely bears very close attention. Mom and Dad are in Louisiana, so hurricane checklist has been activated for them to accomplish today at Home Depot / Walmart. Crossing my fingers that the storm stays as far from the gulf coast as possible.

Have a wonderful, possibly dry weekend!

Susan

- Good news about 94L!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2010 21:58:39 -0500

Good night, folks!

According to a very reliable source, we won't have to be concerned about 94L as it is heading out to sea. Perhaps only Bermuda will have to watch out as it could be moving that way. Whew! This evening we had torrential rain, wind, and the works, lightning and thunder! It last quite a while. I was sure we would have a power outage, but it never happened. That's progress! All eyes now are on the Tropical Depression which form this evening from 93L. There are many nervous people out there. I can't blame them. It's such a sorry sight, all that oil in the Gulf. What is worse, is that all work there must cease if a storm is headed that way, which means the oil will continue spewing out into the Gulf, non-stop!It's a nightmarish scenario. Hopefully it turns away and does not affect the on going work. Some 12-15 inches of rain is expected to fall on the surrounding islands and countries. That always triggers mudslides and flooding. I must remember Hurricane MITCH at this moment as that storm stood stationary for three days over the Nicaraguan/Honduras mountains. Thousands of people lost their lives then. A bleak scenario for the weekend is in store for the Western Caribbean. I wish you all well. God bless you.

Isabel

- Invest 94 in our neighborhood!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2010 14:39:17 -0500

A very good afternoon to all!

What a wet day! It has been raining since this morning! Some real heavy downpours; some thunderstorms! And what a pain that our electric gate is waiting to be repaired. That means getting out of the car to open/close it manually. Couldn't be at a worst time, but hey, this is nothing compared to what some others are getting. And it almost seems that 94L, which has an ominous appearance, looking rather huge and threatening to become something, is about to enter our neighborhood! We have to keep an eye on this one as we do all the others coming off of Africa. It's going to be a long haul. For those who don't like rain,--grin and bear it. However, there is an endless number of activities to beat the rainy blues and be happy. Hang in there. God bless us all!

Isabel

- Ants and the Weather

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2010 23:36:53 -0500

Hello, this wee hour! The topic is about wee insects. Ants! Watch out if you are extra sweet! There are MANY of them.! I heard that the amount of ants in a given hurricane season indicates what kind of season it's going to be. MANY ants has to mean that it will be a bad season right? The Ants are foraging like crazy! They don't want to be out there looking for food during bad weather! Smart! So, they are getting it now from every source. Does anyone out there have any information concerning ants/hurricanes?? One thing that is really interesting is that ants won't cross a chalk line. If you can't be rid of them and don't want them in a specific area, draw a line, they won't cross it.!! Amazing! We should be doing what the ants are doing, --getting our emergency supplies. The new hurricane expert at the Weather Channel said June/July are typically quiet. He did not put into consideration that this is not a typical year. The sea has been warm early in the year. I would not be surprised to see a few named storms in July. Certainly, the ants are trying to tell us something. Let's do some research!

There was a lot of haze again and lots of threatening clouds, but not a drop of rain. We are to get that during the weekend. The Mango Melee could be on the wet side, but that's the least of our worries when we see what a rain system did to a town in Brazil.

God bless us all.
Isabel

- A Dry Thunderstorm!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2010 19:22:50 -0500

Good evening!

We are having, at the moment, a dry thunderstorm. Perhaps the rain is falling elsewhere, or it is still coming? In any case, the forecast calls for RAIN through the night and into tomorrow for a good part of it. We had a mostly sunny day yesterday, quiet weather wise. We expect the weather to continue unstable for the next months with one Tropical Wave after another heading in this direction. Our cisterns are full as I'm sure is the same for everyone, or not? If not, it won't be long now. What do we do with the excess water! So much waste! Everything is looking a bright green! The weeds are thriving, too, unfortunately. But the crickets and the frogs are having the time of their lives. Those who mind will just have to get earplugs. Sorry for the visitors who look forward to beach days and sightseeing. These heavy downpours are not encouraging. I remember when as a child, I used to run out in the rain to play, as well as all children at that time; now children are so protected from rain that they are sick most of the time. We looked forward to the rain so that we could play in it.!! Alas, how times have changed! Until the next post. Be well, be happy, and God bless you.

Isabel

The Pomeranian is hanging in there. A very strong pooch.

- Rain? Tears?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:21:54 -0500

It's almost tomorrow, folks! It is already tomorrow! And here I am still up and tired and listening to thunder in the distance. I think Invest 93 is trying to tell me something, like " Go to bed, and you don't have to use the ipod with the Thunderstorm on it to fall asleep tonight ''! Well, I guess that's what I'll do. Princess, the Pomeranian, is sleeping on a mat in my bedroom. She has refused the soft, round bed I made for her. She probably feels too warm. She is so amazing. She still tries to follow the rhythm of the household, but is too weak.

It is raining very hard now. NOAA radio has been issuing warnings on this heavy rain we are having now. The ground is very saturated and many places are flooding. I feel sorry for all those in low lying areas. Invest 93 is one to watch. It is giving us rain, lots of it, but it has that potential of becoming a dangerous system, perhaps heading to the Gulf of Mexico where so many people are working feverishly to clean up the oil spill, to stop the flow; a storm would interrupt that tremendous effort.

Let's hope that the new day will bring some good news with it for everybody. I get my share of good news everyday when I attend Mass and lead the singing. It certainly is very comforting and provides the strength I need to carry on when some burdens become too difficult to deal with. May God bless us all!

Isabel

- Low cloud cover, torrential rain..

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2010 17:49:19 -0500

Good evening, folks!

It has been raining "cats and dogs" since 5 p.m..As we looked earlier at the satellite imagery on stormcarib it was clearly visible. This convection is a salute from Invest 93L, which has a medium potential of developing into a tropical cyclone. It was moving earlier at 12mph. This area is ripe and ready for the Waves as they trek through. It is a hotbed for TSs and Hurricanes. Concern is focused on Haiti which will definitely feel the effects of this system. Here, in a province or estate called William's Delight - many homes were flooded after the torrential rains on Sunday. It was a very sad and trying time for them; with today's heavy rain it could only have tripled their misery. This may very well stay with us for a while. We can only hope that those in authority to work at improving conditions for the people in W's D, will work quickly to get the job done. It must be horrible to have to wade through water in your own home. In the meanwhile, all the rain we had late this afternoon has moved on precisely to the West where the flooding took place yesterday. The skies are threatening and we expect more rain. We certainly got our wish for full cisterns! I will post later according as conditions warrant. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Rain! Rain! Rain!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2010 19:00:33 -0500

Good evening!

This is the wettest Father's Day on record! (Our records, at least..) What a day! I just listened to NOAA and 92L is still trailing a long tail, which is going to continue causing light to heavier showers this evening, with some thunderstorms!

This was the kind of day on which I would put on the fireplace (DVD) and curl up with a book, snooze, and just have a perfectly cozy time; however, it was another kind of day. We celebrated Father/Grandfather's day with a favorite homecooked meal, had a short siesta with the soothing rain on the roof, and then we were set to see the World Cup Soccer/Football match between Brazil and the Ivory Coast. It was a great game, except they got feisty towards the end. Brazil won 3:1. (The rain is coming down heavier again.)

Throughout these days, much on our minds, is our ailing Pomeranian pooch who is reaching the end of the road, heading towards the "cross over bridge". Yesterday, with a heavy heart, I toured the lower garden looking for a burial site. The Vet said it's a matter of time. She's lived a good long life, certainly been spoiled a good many years, first by her original owner who died, then by us. In the meanwhile, she is still strong enough to fight us as we try to feed her Nutri Cal and an antibiotic in a syringe. With both "kidney and liver failure", how does she get her energy to fight.? It took three people to hold her still enough to administer both. Even though she likes the Nutri Cal she still resists. An amazing little creature.

Enjoy what's left of this day, only God knows what tomorrow will bring. Be well, Be Happy, God bless you. And "let a smile be your umbrella".

Isabel

- Happy wet Fathers Day to all

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2010 06:31:09 -0700 (PDT)

Waking up to lots of wonderful rain. I did all of my errands on Friday thinking that we were going to have some very strong storms yesterday , but all we had was the midnight storm with electricity going out and that didn't last terribly long at all. So, we just had to contend with very gray skies all day Saturday. Perfect day to stay indoors and watch movies all day, which we took full advatange of doing! It rained a little last night, but boy come 6am this morning, it poured! It is still spitting a little bit, but appears to be tapering off. We should just be thankful that this system didn't evolve to be a monster, which it certainly could have according to the reports. Off to St John tomorrow for a few days of visits with incoming family, so I am glad that the system has just about moved out of the area. Missing my sun and beautiful blue waters, BUT love the liquid gold that Mother Nature drops on us! (cistern is moving up as we speak...up to 3 feet yesterday when I checked!! Yippeee yahhoo!)

Hope you all have a wonderful Father's Day,

Susan

- Whiteout !

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2010 05:52:19 -0500

Good morning and a very happy Father's Day!

We are currently having whiteout conditions as of 6:30 this morning. Instead of getting lighter, the pre-dawn hours became darker. The clouds were descending upon us and when they burst it was a deluge! According to NOAA, we will be having the effects of this system (92L) until this afternoon when it clears the area entirely. In the meanwhile, we can be truly thankful to God that we are not dealing with a major hurricane instead. There's always a reason to be happy. Keep smiling. God bless you.

Isabel

- 92L at the head of a colorful parade!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2010 22:21:40 -0500

Good night, folks!

Well, it seems that we all got a good drenching last night! The whole percussion! The worst thing about the blackout around midnight is that all fans go out too. It was so hot! Funny, that earlier in the evening I showered by candlelight (in a glass jar) just in case of a power outage. Then later when it did go out, the candIe was out, nor did I have my little solar powered flashlight with me; nor the cell phone that comes in handy as a flashlight as well. The pets were all around me, scared to heck with the thundering. The frequent lightning when it happened offered enough illumination. It was pitch dark otherwise.

What's interesting is the colorful parade of tropical waves behind 92L as if it's leading them! Though, I must say that all that color does not really indicate the true nature of things. After last night's rain, we have had just a few sprinklings; yet in the satellite imagery it looks as we are being bombarded left, right, and center. It has been a rather quiet day here with lots of cloud cover. The sun did peak through and that seems to be tomorrow's outlook as well. The indications are that we're in for a lot of activity through the next months. All correspondents seem to agree with that. I'm glad that Max has emailed his thoughts on this present activity and where it's going. Thank you, Max.

Have a peaceful night and God bless all the Fathers/Grandfathers out there!

Isabel

- Fwd: What's up?

By Jill Fisher <Heygirllll at aol.com>
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2010 00:22:00 -0400

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Jill Fisher <Heygirllll at aol.com>
Date: June 18, 2010 11:14:36 PM GMT-04:00
Subject: What's up?

All the cats want to come inside the house ... They're outdoor cats, they never want to come inside ... What's up with that? Something doesn't feel right ... Storm coming?

~Jill~

Sent from my iPhone

- The Weather Channel

By Jill Fisher <Heygirllll at aol.com>
Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2010 00:17:58 -0400

Power is out, heavy rain and thunder and lightning ... Cats warned us!

~Jill~

Local Severe Weather Alert for Christiansted, VI (00820)

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THEFLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * ALL OF PUERTORICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. *THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS LATE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTACROSS THESE ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATETONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTAND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLEUPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUINGTHROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCALISLANDS. * TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THISRAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH AND RIVERFLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ALL LOCALRESIDENTS...VISITORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TOREMAIN ALERT TO DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT ANDCONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TOFLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESSREQUIREMENTS... ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS.KEEP INFORMED... AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVEDOR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULDCONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOWLYING AREAS...AND BE CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS ANDUNDERPASSES. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCALTV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATESTINFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. THIS PRODUCT...ALONGWITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...



Sent from my iPhone

- Still 167 mi. from us...

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 22:40:30 -0500

Good night, all!

Soon after my last post we got bombarded with some good downpours. It's on and off now like a water faucet. We expect this will last as promised for the sake of those of us with cisterns. Would be nice if all the systems would be this gentle. Well, let's see what tomorrow brings.

I must say that keeping up with the weather has been a good distraction for me especially, as I'm also keeping a concerned eye on our elderly Pomeranian who is perhaps seeing her last days. It's always difficult to say goodbye. We've been through it before.

Have a good night. God bless us all.

Isabel

- What's up?

By Jill Fisher <Heygirllll at aol.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 23:17:06 -0400

All the cats want to come inside the house ... They're outdoor cats, they never want to come inside ... What's up with that? Something doesn't feel right ... Storm coming?

~Jill~

Sent from my iPhone

- Molasses going uphill..

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 19:25:20 -0500

Greetings from my desk to yours!

This system, 92L, is really slower than molasses going uphill. We are on 65W and it is still on 60! It seems to be stationary. How can it be moving at 15mph? Anyway, the winds must be really strong in the upper levels of the atmosphere, to keep it from making progress. We are being told time and again, on NOAA Weather Radio, that we should expect a copious amount of rain with accompanying percussion, thunder/lightning, flash floods, landslides, gusty winds, and whatever else..And this is to go right through the weekend. Fine with me. We can continue studying German for an upcoming trip. My grandchildren who are traveling there for the first time, are being coached as to how to respond to basic questions. We had such a session after lunch at home today. We went on to teach the names of utensils, plates, etc.. It was hilarious! That's one example of what one, or two, or five can do on a rainy/stormy day.

I shall post one more time before I retire tonight. Until then. Blessings!

Isabel

P.S. My weather dog just came cowering at the rumbles of thunder in the distance.

- Sunny and squally...

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 10:28:49 -0500

Hi !

We are having very sunny weather this morning with intermittent squally weather. The computer models have dropped more to the south, no longer going over us. However, the NHC still has a lot of rain and thunderstorms in our forecast for the next two days. We'll have to wait and see if that materialises. This month is usually still fairly quiet with periodic waves going through. It's the month of July of which we must be wary; it's akin to a lion waiting to pounce! Vigilance and preparedness must increase as time goes by. How many storms have been predicted for this season? Twenty-three? That means that when they start out it will be one after the other. That can be very exhausting! For the moment, we can breathe easy. God bless us all. Be safe out there.

It was so sad to hear the President Mandela's great-granddaughter (13) died in a crash caused by an intoxicated family friend. Do not drink and drive! Celebrate, have fun, stay off the booze if you're going to drive, or get a designated driver, at best a teetotaler, to drive. Many precious lives have been lost because of someone's negligence. Be a responsible driver and have a very happy Father's Day.

Isabel

- Wheeee

By MelissaE Keyes <melissae.keyes at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 19:58:41 -0700 (PDT)

Whoa, Yo! To everyone who looks at the satellite pictures.

Wowee, it's not nearly so bad an image if you go look at the radar out of Martinique/Guadeloupe, on weathercarib.com.

Rain happens. Take care of leaks and things tomorrow.

As long as there's not a name, I'm happy.

Take care,

Melissa

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Melissa E. Keyes
St. Croix,
U.S.Virgin Islands

- Almost here...

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 21:42:20 -0500

Good night, everyone!

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), "A strong tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms.." They went on to say that this wave increased in intensity this evening. They gave it a 20% potential of development into a cyclone in the next 48 hrs..

So far, the night is quiet. I think that once the TW enters the Caribbean Sea it can once again become a very serious threat. It has held together very well and even increased with the fierce wind against it. It is also climbing, therefore, we should be in the direct path of if. Again, thank God it is not a hurricane. Things will probably go downhill from tonight.

i will post again tomorrow morning, closer to noon. By then there should be a better indication of conditions here. In the meanwhile, follow the track of the TW on stormcarib, read the reports of the correspondents on the island chain especially those affected directly by this system and find out more about this "strong tropical wave". Have a good night, sweet dreams, and God bless you.

Isabel

- The Tropical Wave BLOB is approaching!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 12:21:31 -0500

Good afternoon!

Thank God the wind shear destroyed any potential for the formation of a cyclone, but looking at that BIG BLOB to our east, almost in the neighborhood, I wonder about the possibility of it intensifying down the road after it passes us. I hope everyone is keeping an eye to the weather. I understand that the worse day will be on Saturday, but can linger well beyond Sunday. Guys, I think you could be in for a very stormy weekend for Father's Day. Enjoy your day anyway. There are many family things to do even on a rainy day. I will post later again about the conditions. Deterioration of the weather is already taking place with the little disturbance ahead of the BLOB. We expect a lot of rain, which I hope will be enough to fill the cisterns. Until later then. Have a good rest of day. God bless you.

Isabel

- A tropical night..

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2010 22:05:36 -0500

Good night, friends, near and far:

What a gorgeous time to be in St. Croix, hurricane season and all! The sea is warm, the flamboyant trees are in bloom, mangoes are in abundance, the trade winds are breezy and comforting in the steamy heat, and the showers are refreshing.

This evening after a perfectly wonderful time in the sea, enjoying the calm while it lasts, **lightning flashes began to illuminate the sky to the south. Eventually it was followed by rumbles of thunder. Now, this might surprise many who live away, but we seldom hear thunder. We had a heavy, brief downpour (can't call it a shower ), just enough to keep the frogs happy. There is more on the way for Thursday, with a marked increase on Friday and Saturday as the tropical wave passes over us.The lawn was starting to look kind of dry, so this welcome rain will be an all around relief.

A word of caution concerning lightning. Maybe you caught the story on the Weather Channel this evening about the young woman who'd just returned to her hometown(?) in the States, from the Bahamas. She got caught, in a sudden storm and raced for the large tree nearby to protect her from the storm, when in reality she was heading to her death! The worse thing one can ever do is stand under a tree during a storm. Well, lightning struck the tree, it went through her body and out her feet. Her boots were tiny pieces in the debris around her. She was cold. The massive tree was split in half! It's too bad for the young woman so full of life and for her family. Please pass this story on whenever you have a chance and remember that it's dangerous to stand under a tree during a storm. The tallest point becomes a lightning rod as that tree did.

All the best to everyone. Stay safe and God bless you!

Isabel

- Beautiful Morning

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2010 04:57:42 -0700 (PDT)

Good Morning! I finally drug myslef out of bed at 530am this morning to enjoy the beautiful sunrise with the husband's coaxing of course. Ahh..now this is why we live in the Caribbean

It was terribly hot yesterday with light wind that carried on into the night. A stray shower appeared around 2am just enough to wet the patio and tease the trees. Fans were roaring all night and we were still hot in the house. Crossing my fingers for a little bit more breeze today, which I think is working. Watching the little blob of hmm what might be our 1st tropical depression of the season. It definitely bears some attention in the next couple of days. They are saying that as it nears the islands on Thursday it might bring the much needed rainfall that we have been missing for the last month or two. As always please always pay attention since Mother Nature always has her own program going on! Have a happy Tuesday!

Susan

- An earlier peak..?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2010 20:46:11 -0500

Good evening, folks!

Whew! that looked scary for a moment! Now we can relax a bit. I was wondering...I heard that the peak of the Hurricane Season will happen earlier this year because the SST was high earlier than usual. That changes the whole picture apparently. The sea in April felt like it does in July. So, I guess that means that August will be more like September. In which case, there should be a battery of storms beginning in July. Can anyone clarify this, add or subtract ?

One way of the other, it does not matter, as we have to take it as it comes. We cannot argue with Mother Nature. In the meanwhile, we are enjoying the sea. We are not the sit-around-on the-beach type of people. We go in right away and spend a good half hour swimming and doing water aerobics (me), or just float contentedly. Which reminds me, in case I have not shared this story as yet: Some years ago, my husband, our visiting son, and I were doing just that, relaxing in the water in the evening, having a conversation, when we noticed some fish chasing each other. They came in our direction and all of a sudden one of them was surprised by our presence and ran smack into my right eyebrow! It was as if a stone hit me! They floated me to the shore. I was somewhat whoozy. At home I took some pain medication, but my biggest fear was that the next day I would wake up with a black eye! Who would believe the fish story....?? Sure, sure, they would think it was my husband who did it, except for those who know him, his gentle natured way. Well, I did not have to worry about that. The next day, there was a slight redness on the eyelid and that was hidden with some makeup and my glasses.

The weather is truly beautiful at the moment. The forecast holds some rain for the weekend, after all, but not as much as with a tropical system, unless that changes. I wish everyone a safe and happy endless Summer these next couple of months with the children all out of school. God bless us all.

Isabel

- 92 L - Fizzled!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2010 10:51:02 -0500

Well, well, well! Has it really fizzled? Or is it one of those peek-a-boo systems? Whatever the case, it now looks good for the weekend, Fathers' Day celebrations, June weddings, picnics, and a slew of other outdoor activities. We know that it's only a matter of time before something else comes along. We did look forward to the rain. It's always a welcome thing when you depend on cisterns. We can be very thankful that we are not suffering the tremendous floods they are having on the mainland. A woman who was being interviewed said she never thought they would have such floods as in Oklahoma City. She thought that that was something one sees happening on TV in other places, to other people. It goes to show that we are all vulnerable and anything can happen at anytime. We are also fortunate that we are nowhere near the oil spill, however, we can only feel sorry for those who are in distress and do whatever is in our power to help. We must keep Haiti very much at the top of our lists, as many thousands are still sheltered only by tents. We know from the past that Haiti is often in the path of the storms and there are always many fatalities. It would be great if this year could be gentler. Let's continue to be vigilant. This is only the beginning of the season. God bless and protect us all!

Isabel

- 92L - To Be or not to Be?

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2010 22:34:34 -0500

A pleasant good night to all!

To Be or not to Be. That is the question! However, we all need rain in the Caribbean; some more than others. We had to order a truck full of water today. Sporadic spurts of rain cannot supply the demand. So, we would be very happy if 92L dumped some much needed rain on us beginning this Friday. A concerned friend wanted to know if it's going to rain on Sunday -her son is getting married. We'll wish for a dry day especially. It's too early to tell. it could very well be dry.

The system behind 92L is quite a formidable one. That definitely bears watching. We enjoyed the beautiful, warm water at the beach this evening with a glorious sunset! Let's keep monitoring and make sure that we are prepared. God bless us all!

Isabel

- High Potential Disturbance #1 !!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2010 22:10:42 -0500

Good night, all!

The disturbance in the Atlantic has been upgraded to that of "high potential" with a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. It is a very unusual system forming so low, near the equator. As it pulls away from the spinning force of the equator it apparently has a better fighting chance. It already is doing that and all ingredients are in place for cyclone formation. It is quite possible that by Tuesday if not sooner it will become a Depression, and possibly more. We'll have to monitor it carefully, watching and praying. God bless you.

Isabel

- Beauty and the Beast

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2010 19:13:09 -0500

A beautiful day in St. Croix. Sunny and very warm, with soft breezes. A good day to go out and enjoy life, a good day to stay in and enjoy life. Either way, it's a blessing to have a day like this when so many other places are having their share of strife. It was a day to thank the Lord for all good things and pray for a safe hurricane season.

The big island of St. Croix with breathtaking views at every turn along the coast is a precious gem. That is why we want to protect it from hurricanes, but can we? At the moment, we are tracking a potential threat, which is called 92L for the moment. If it develops it will acquire the name ALEX, the first in a series of storms predicted for this season. Most of them will come out of Africa in a westerly direction, towards us, but often take a turn to the south or to the north. We have not had a direct hit since HUGO in 1989. Since then they have affected us considerably, but nothing like HUGO, which impacted the island in a horrific manner. Some went without electricity for months. That has not happened since. Usually, the power is interrupted until the storm passes and resumed after all utility posts/wires are safely back in service, area by area. In less than 24 hrs. we have that essential utility again, and life returns to normal, that is, after garden debris is cleared and dumped.

The storms are like beasts which threaten the beauty of the islands in the region. A beauty marred for a time, but which thankfully bounces back to bloom and give joy. As is said, " A thing of beauty is a joy forever". Let's keep an eye on 92L as we go about our business, and hope that it does not become a beast. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Eye On A Potential Storm!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2010 22:01:09 -0500

Attention, Neighbors!

In case you have not noticed. There is a broad area of disturbed weather to our east which has the potential, though low at the moment, of slowly developing "in the next 48 hours". Normally, I would not think too much of it, because it is quite low as well; however, all the comp. models except for one has it coming in our direction. Considering the predictions for the season, it is not too early for a TS or even a Hurricane to form. The farther away these systems start developing the larger they can become. The SST has been quite warm since early in the year, making anything out there a potential risk. We must keep an eye on this system, especially since it seems to be heading in this direction in the long run, unless wind shear tears it apart.

We need not worry about anything, if we are ready for everything. We should have been ready a long time ago. Let this system be an alert for all of us. We don't know what it is capable of in the course of the next week, probably by the end of next week, if not sooner, according to some weather bloggers. All we can do is pray and hope that it fizzles as we hope with all of them, but that is simply wishful thinking. We are in the forecast this season as having a land falling storm, where in the Caribbean, no one knows. That is why it is so important to prepare early. Have a good night, enjoy the World Cup, or the Mango Melee, or the beach tomorrow and may God bless us all.

Isabel

- Nasty Solar Storms Ahead

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2010 22:02:58 -0500

Good Night, folks!

The title of this blog caught my attention and I want to bring it to yours s as well,if you have not seen it on Yahoo news information. As if we don't have enough to deal with, now the Sun wants in on the action as well. "The Sun is about to get more active, which could have ill effects on Earth. So to prepare, top Sun scientists met Tuesday to discuss the best ways to protect Earth and other vital systems from the coming solar storms." For us it means, solar weather watching as well. We have to hope and pray that it will indeed be possible to protect the Earth and those vital systems that are so essential to us, --especially electricity. A solar storm can cause blackouts that are long-lasting!

It's been another quiet, peaceful day here in St. Croix. Everyone is on track, working to keep things moving. Today I saw MEN AT WORK. What a beautiful sight! One of the main arteries in the very romantic Estate ANNA's HOPE, is being paved, so patience was needed to get through at a slow pace, stopping at intervals to let the opposing traffic by. It's good to see work being done. The Christiansted Bypass is coming along also, lots of work there; the Morgan Rum Distillery is growing at a very rapid pace. They're hoping for a Grand Opening in January. Home Depot is clearing land getting ready for a huge construction; another huge construction site near the Cruzan Rum Distillery has us somewhat mystified--what exactly is that for.?? Private residences are going up everywhere. Who said the economy is bad..? My concern is the hurricane season predicted for this year. Morgan has some very large, round storage tanks akin to those of the Hovensa Oil Refinery, which were flattened by the very low pressure of Hurricane HUGO (1989), spewing oil over a large portion of the neighborhood. Clean up crews were sent out to restore the many homes affected. That was quite a job!

We have not seen a drop of rain from any of the Waves passing to our south, but according to NOAA Radio, we should be in for some rain by Friday night. We did have some fun in the Sun at the beach today. We are so grateful for each good day that we have. We are all looking forward to the World Cup, which begins tomorrow morning in So. Africa. Have a great weekend,

Blessings,
isabel

- Enjoy the Quiet Spell!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2010 22:22:06 -0500

Good night, all!

Let's prepare and enjoy the quiet spell while it is quiet. It's not going to stay this way for long. As for us now, we don't expect much out of the wave that is passing to our south these next days, so tomorrow we plan to picnic at the beach for a couple of hours. We haven't done this with the grandkids for a while; it's been a busy life, with school and swim team. My grandson is aiming to be the next Michael Phelps, but then again, he wants to be a pilot...

While reading various blogs this evening, from various sources, I got the impression that ALEX will be coming out of Africa. That somehow, storms are going to form farther east this year. It is also the general feeling, more than just a feeling, that we can look for activity in the Caribbean far earlier than previous years. Well, that's a heck of a lot of stuff to try to sleep with this night. Why do I always write so late!? Because it's quiet...? Perhaps.

So, enjoy what we have while we can. I find that living one day at a time, is the best decision one can make. Each day is a present, a gift from God. It has never happened before. It is brand new. Let's live it well. God bless us all.

Isabel

- Weather

By MelissaE Keyes <melissae.keyes at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 9 Jun 2010 05:40:57 -0700 (PDT)

Hello!

Looks like the tropical waves are marching right along, far to the south of us so far. Yet right now I'm watching a satellite infrared animation that shows a 'blob' moving over Barbados, heading NW. Looks like a wet day for the Bajans!

I'm wondering if this will be a pop-up. And wondering if it'll get here to St Croix. And wondering if it'll just pffft, and disappear.

Since weather forms here in the Caribbean, the weather men sure have a tough time making their forecasts.

I'm happy to be seeing clear skies after those days of heavy Saharan dust. That stuff is nasty! BUT, it does suppress those "H" things.

Stay safe,

Melissa

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Melissa E. Keyes
St. Croix,
U.S.Virgin Islands

- Hefty looking Waves on the Horizon!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 6 Jun 2010 22:16:40 -0500

Greetings and A Good Night to All!

There are some hefty looking tropical waves just out of Africa heading this way. I'm assuming we are all taking note. Suddenly, one day, one of these waves will develop into a more serious threat. It's just a matter of time. We are trying to finish some work on the house, sharing our worker with other friends who have a serious leaky roof. Sometimes it's not easy to find the right person to do a good job without him charging "an arm and a leg".. very expensive quite often for a job badly done. These friends have already paid out good money only to have the leaks again. Exasperating! When we find a good worker, it's like hitting the jackpot! Not that I've ever hit the jackpot, or even tried to hit it. To me, practical person that I am, the best things in life are carefully selected and greatly appreciated, like the worker we have now. He works alone, with whatever assistance the homeowner can give him, which is good for the homeowner because he gets to learn what he doesn't know as yet. A house requires maintenance every so often, especially when it is exposed to the sea salt and beaten up by storms each year. A good bath (power wash) is recommended after each storm. Easier said than done, but in the long run, it's better for the house; fewer repairs, fewer headaches.

That said and done, we turn now again to the subject of the year. ---Hurricane Season--. It does not help to stick our heads in the sand and have our rear ends up in the air, we have to face the fact that the season is upon us and whatever we haven't done as yet to prepare, must get done as soon as possible. This year is going to be a tricky one-- a KATRINA kind of year There can be lots of BIG surprises in store for us. We don't have to be hit by one to suffer the effects. It can pass at a distance, but if it's BIG it will feel as if it's right over us. We know the experience- (LENNY 1999 ). The smart thing is to be ready. May God bless us all!

Isabel

- Great Weather for the 275th anniversary of Christiansted!

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 21:30:23 -0500

Good night, folks!

What a blessing when one can throw one's care to the wind and just have a good time. Sure, we are aware of the dire predictions for the season, and are concerned about the oil spill, livelihoods lost, environment destroyed,...there's too much out there to stretch the nerves thin. After a while it begins to feel like Shingles. Those nerve endings are so painful. But what does that have to do with the price of potatoes in China? Well, we had a great time at the 275th anniversary of our town Christiansted, the capital of St. Croix. For those of you who know the town, a section of Company Street closest to the wharf, was cut off to traffic, tables and chairs were set up everywhere, lit candles all along the sides, two bands were playing - one a brass band, the other a local band, on either end of the section. This local band was playing quelbe and other music which was too tempting to resist. I must say I burned a few calories. The night was truly marvelous. We cannot see the haze at night, can't see the stars either for that matter, however, this event needed to be rain free and it was. As for the Saharan dust which creates the haze, an alert was issued yesterday to those who suffer from respiratory and related problems to stay at home, to avoid the dust; for everyone, we were told to avoid rubbing our eyes. Do we listen?

Some rain is in the forecast for the weekend, hopefully it will wash away the dust, at least on our cars, if nothing else. We shall man our posts and track whatever is moving out there. May it all pass quickly! God bless us all! Best wishes to everyone! Have a wonderful weekend and smile more often, it's good for your health.

Isabel

- A Dust Cover

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2010 19:48:59 -0500

St. Croix today was more like London shrouded in fog. We went to the beach after five p.m. anyway, and had it mostly to ourselves, my husband and I. That's the way I like a beach! The sea was very refreshing. As I swam and did my aerobics thing, I could not help thinking of the HUGE wave coming off the coast of Africa. According to the SST in that area, the sea is about 85 degrees; that is certainly warm enough to get a Wave charged and ready for action.

Are we charged and ready for action? That is, as far as preparedness goes. There's so much to do, why wait. I started cleaning out the garage to put one of the three vehicles in there, in case, but I look around dismayed at the little progress I have made. When we built our house we decided to build a second floor so that the first can be used as a hurricane shelter. If the roof upstairs gets blown away, there is always a place downstairs. Many post HUGO islanders did just that so that they don't have to go through a similar experience of being suddenly exposed to the elements during a hurricane.

We had a deluge last Saturday, other than that, we have been having just spotty showers and the dust cover that should stick around for a few days. The sea is great for a swim, exercises, and just to float and relax. Mangoes are in season, we also have Sweet Sap, Mespel, and Red plums, the Sugar apples are just starting out; the Yellow plums should be ready in August... The Flamboyant trees are slow in blooming this year; only one of our seven trees is almost covered with flowers. At this time of year, the trees all over the island are usually blooming and they are quite a sight to behold. The best things in life are free, especially if we propagate them ourselves. I have to try to grow plantains. I don't like paying .69 cents for one after buying ten large ones for $2.00 in New York. They are usually imported from the DR. Well, we had a Tostones feast! It was great! Looking forward to a repetition one day.

Prepare to do battle this season! Live to talk about it! Prepare well with non-perishables and drinking water! Be alert to TV and Radio when under a threat. Be attentive to civil authorities. Before we know it the season will be over. God bless us all!

Sincerely dusty,
Isabel

- Hurricane Season 2010 - Yikes !

By Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 1 Jun 2010 22:05:19 -0500

Hello folks in the Caribbean and beyond!

What a "hell of a season" this year, according to the experts! Let's hope they are wrong, but already Central America has had to deal with a bad one, which not being satisfied with the Pacific decided to hop across to the Caribbean Sea. AGATHA got beaten up by those high mountains, and beat up on quite a few people there in the process. I believe the count is 150 dead; that could be just in Guatemala. Other countries had their share of death and grief, and all because of a little Tropical Lady Storm, what if it had been a full-fledged hurricane! However, there is still an annoying little chip of a remnant hanging around. If it does not start dissipating soon we're in for some suspense early in the season. Computer models are playing around with this one; this morning one of them had it going up through Cuba, turning right, then south between PR and Hispaniola, and up again..... My goodness! Others went through Miami, etc.. The latest pull on this one was up. The sea is very warm, has been for sometime. April felt like July, so that being the case, anything can form at anytime. Dave thinks that the Saharan dust will kill any would be storms from forming, that would be great, it's just a matter of time to prove that theory. One wonders if all the allergies caused by the dust is worth it after all.

One enormous concern is Haiti, where so many thousands are obliged to live in totally unsafe shelters, like tents, for instance. What is to become of them if they become the target of the hurricanes as they have in the past. How can they be evacuated, and where to? There is so much suffering as a result of that horrible earthquake and now this nightmare. How to cope? Even those of us who live in strong structures fear the wrath of a major hurricane embedded with tornadoes. Several of those are in the forecast for this year. All we can do is pray, and hope they stay far from any land.

Then there's the oil disaster in the Gulf. Imagine a 30 ft. storm surge and where it will take all that oil.!! Unbelievable! We sure are going to have a "hell of a season" if the experts are right. God help us!

I wish everyone a very safe hurricane season, and remember that we are also in an earthquake zone and those don't have a season, they happen at anytime of the year, day, or night. That fancy jug on top of your cabinet looks mighty attractive, but it can kill you during a tremor if you happen to be near it when the earth shakes. It's one of the simple things we don't think about.

May God bless us all!

Isabel

- Good Soggy Morning!

By MelissaE Keyes <melissae.keyes at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 28 May 2010 05:43:00 -0700 (PDT)

Hello, Weather Watchers,

A cool, almost chilly, day here today, gray weather for our visitors on this holiday weekend. I always exclaim, "You must be really special to bring us all this rain!"

"Our" tropical waves started suddenly rolling off Africa's coast a couple of weeks ago. They are so far south that they are traveling across northern South America, Far away from us.

Something odd is happening because this drizzly and cloudy with occasional downpours are not coming from the tropical waves, they're coming up from South America, about from Columbia. The clouds are crossing the Caribbean Sea going toward the east, and then on up into the Atlantic, headed toward England and France. ??

I haven't always been watching the weather with so much technical help, the satellites animations, but still this seems to be a new pattern. In my forty some years in the Caribbean, I have always looked toward the East to see if a shower is approaching. We never had "drizzle". Not for more that one day, anyhow, with a passing tropical wave.

So? I am expecting to be watching south-westard and westward for hurricanes this year, as well as the usual eastward. I'm glad I don't have one of those beautiful homes on St. Croix's west coast, that were wedged so close to the sea in the little strip of land between the beach and the road. I remember too clearly what happened there when Wrong Way Lenny came through. The weather people really blew it predicting Lenny to turn north. Too many sailors left precarious bays in different islands and sailed right into Lenny's wrath. RIP, sailor guys, and peace for their dear ones left behind. Lenny finally petered out southeast of Trinidad, out in the Atlantic. (shudder)

Ah, where's my sweatshirt! I don't even own one!

OK, everyone, enjoy listening to the squeaks and laughter of all the grass and weeds and tantan and plants growing so vigorously.

Cheers,

Melissa

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Melissa E. Keyes
St. Croix,
U.S.Virgin Islands

- Rain Rain keep on coming

By Susan Beck <sbeckchef1 at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 28 May 2010 05:20:02 -0700 (PDT)

Waking up to another very gray day here on St Croix. Yesterday there was a very light rain all day that started around 9am and lasted into the night. The power went out again for about 15 minutes around midnight, it has been doing that for the last 3 nights...strange, not sure what is going on there! I am doubting the constant drizzle yesterday that we encountered was enough to fill up the very low cistern that we are have right now. We are on the east end of the island and I do my rain dance quite often out here hoping always for rain for the cistern. It kills me to write a check to the water man each month for water delivery! BUT, it is what iti is! So, I am crossing my fingers today for another day of good rain, which they are predicting 90% chance for us. With gray skies, my fans inside are turned off, which I think is a first for the month of May! December yes, but never May! We didn't even have them running while we slept last night. Just a sheet as a cover!! Reports are showing that this system should pass by Sunday, so a Happy Memorial Day with tons of fun at Buck Island is in store. Have a safe and happy weekend wherever you may be!! Off to sail the BVI's we go for our annual 10 day jaunt around those beautiful parts of the world...yippeee yahoo!!!

Susan

- The rain has arrived - The Weather Channel

By Jill Fisher <Heygirllll at aol.com>
Date: Thu, 27 May 2010 08:04:19 -0400

Heads up ...

Local Severe Weather Alert for Christiansted, VI (00820)

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM AST THIS MORNINGTHROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * ALLOF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS. * FROM 6 AM AST THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING * APLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PUERTO RICOAND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLEMID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE PERIODSOF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THISRAIN FALLING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCEAREAS OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...AND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FORDANGEROUS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. * RESIDENTS ANDEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO DEVELOPINGWEATHER CONDITIONS...AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4INCHES...WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ARE LIKELYWITH THIS EVENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOODWATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THEWATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCHAREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS... ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVEINTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED... AND BE READY FOR QUICKACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THEPOSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE CAREFULWHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. PLEASE STAY TUNED TONOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISIONPROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. THISPRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATEINFORMATION...



Sent from my iPhone