Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this 
evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic. 
Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of 
Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight, 
and early morning hours, starting this evening through Thursday. 
Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia. 
See the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 
08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N30W to 
the coast of South America at 02S45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-04N between 07W-
11W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over a large 
area within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb high is centered off the coast of Virginia near 37N72W 
producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair 
weather is over the Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is 
over the Gulf with strong subsidence. Expect fair weather over 
most of the Gulf over the next 24 hours as the surface high 
moves E. Morning fog is possible along the N Gulf States, 
between Corpus Christi Texas and Pensacola Florida. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the far W Caribbean Sea from Cozumel 
Mexico to San Pedro Sula Honduras moving W. Scattered showers 
are from 18N-22N between 85W-88W. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over 
the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N 
Colombia. More scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Furthermore, scattered showers are now 
advecting over the Windward Islands from the Atlantic. In the 
upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W 
Caribbean near 18N80W. Strong subsidence covers the entire 
Caribbean and Central America. Expect gale-force winds along the 
coast of Colombia starting this evening. See above. Also expect 
clusters of scattered showers to move W over the Caribbean, 
within the tradewind flow, during the next 24 hours. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the 
tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong 
subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are 
not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, is over the west 
Atlantic from 31N55W to 27N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 
nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is over the central Atlantic 
near 32N46W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic 
from 31N41W to 28N46W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of 
this trough. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N31W. 
Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over 
the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 45W. Expect over the next 24 hour 
for another cold front to dip into the central Atlantic and 
reach 31N47W with showers. 

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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