Caribbean Hurricane Network - 2 0 2 4  Season -
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Thursday, April 4, 2024 10:15AM PDT - Extremely Active Hurricane Season forecasted...

Today Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued there well respected forecast for the upcoming season. And it is not looking good... This may come as no surprise, since last year we had the battle between El Nino, which decreases hurricane activity, and warm sea surface waters, which increases hurricane activity. El Nino lost... This year we won't have an El Nino, but La Nina conditions, which normally enhances hurricane activity, plus the record warm sea surface temperatures are still here!

The forecast calls for 23 (!) named stormes (14.4 is normal), of which 11 are expected to reach hurricane strength (7.2 is normal) and 5 reach major hurricanes status (3.2 is normal). This is the highest number of storms ever forecasted by Colorado State in April...

The major drivers are La Nina and high sea surface temperatures. Although we are still in an El Nino, it is expected to fade in the next few weeks, and transform to La Nina conditions at the peak of hurricane season. During a La Nina vertical wind shear is lower in the Atlantic, making it easier for tropical storms to develop and become stronger. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently at record levels, see for example the last plot on the my satellite imagery page (yellow/orange means above normal, it looks like 1-2° Celcius or more above normal!). And it is expected to stay above normal, giving more fuel to hurricanes...

Normally the April forecast doesn't have much skill, but this year they are more confident that there will indeed be an active season. It is hard to argue otherwise, with record sea surface temperatures and an La Nino, two of the main drivers in hurricane activity...

What does it mean for the Caribbean... For the Caribbean region the probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the region (a big area) is 66% (normal is 47%, last year it was 49%). In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html). Note that some of the numbers are biased by area, for example The Bahamas. In any case, just one big storm in your backyard is more than enough. It seems that this is the season that you invest in some good hurricane protection.... Preparation will be key this season.

A good writeup can also be found on Jeff Masters' Eye on the Storm blog at Yale Climate Connections. It does not really make you happy reading it... -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.