Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-13 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (11:45 UTC, 1478 minutes ago)
Note: Old image - NASA server down(?); Look here for more recent images.
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Thursday, July 29, 2010 23:40PM EDT - 90L

Good evening!

 

Just a short nite post to note the designation of 90L off to our east and around 8 degrees north. Still too low to take adavantage of the earths spin, once it gets above 10 degrees north, it will take advantage of it's escape from the ITCZ to start ramping up. Current models have it reaching TS status in 48 hours and hurricane status in 72 hours. If this were to occur, a more west northwest track would usually occur forcing the system to the north of the islands, particularly the northern Antilles. The longer it takes to get it's act together, the more menacing it becomes to our islands. There is dry air along with saharan dust to it's north but not expected to have much impact. In addition, a few waves ahead of 90L have helped "pave" the way by moisturizing the atmosphere ahead while not disturbing the SST content.

 

This system has bad potential and possibly bad intentions. if you haven't paid attention before or stocked up, maybe now might be a good time.

 

More tomorrow.

 

Good night!!

 

Dave

Wednesday, July 28, 2010 05:08AM EDT - calm

Good morning!

 

Back in the islands after a short hiatus.

 

With dry air loomimg large to the north of Hurricane Alley plus a decent dose of Saharan Dust, the Atlantic hurricane basin is quiet: as it usually is end of July, first of August. A few waves are making their way across the hurricane conveyor belt but are of no consequence at this time. The fuel is there: 83-87 degree SST's. Could this be the calm before the storm with the beginning of peak hurricane season only a few weeks away?? Hope you are prepared or close to it!

 

Dave

Thursday, July 22, 2010 11:23AM EDT - TD#3/98L/TS BONNIE?

Good morning,

TD#3 was classified this morning after a closed surface circulation was determined to exist in addition to the sufficient convective activity necessary for such. The computer models are in good agreement as to the future track which is across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening ridge will see to this path. Extra reconnaissance was provided by a NOAA aircraft last night and another Air Force hurricane hunter is scheduled to investigate today and I believe TS Bonnie will be born.

None of the models call for significant strengthening and the chances of a hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico are low but the oil spill recovery team should take no chances due to long term uncertainty in the forecast.TS warnings should be issued for South Florida, Turks/Caicos and the Bahamas shortly.

98L in the Bay of Campeche will bring heavy rains to Mexico but will it reach TD status before making landfall? Possibly but the window is very narrow.

Closer to my home, saturated grounds and flooding cleanup is underway. A mosquito explosion along with accompanying dengue fever alerts will manifest themselves in a few days.

Off to the east, nothing much to look at. Just a couple of waves and the ever present in July Saharan Dust. The next wave coming off the African coast looks interesting as well.

Dave

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 11:03AM EDT - 97L and behind

Good morning!

 

Having been relatively out of touch last week or so in upstate New York, I was still able to pick up some tidbits from the Caribbean and Atlantic. I'm happy that we put everything up off the floor before we left as I believe the towel brigade has been overwhelmed by the deluge created by the slow passing of 97L which actually caused the Cyril E. King airport, a/k/a St. Thomas to briefly shut down over the weekend. Culebra and Vieques received more rainfall in the last 72 hours than they normally receive in 3-4 months!! And it is still coming down.

 

Flash flood watches are up and with another wave expected over the upcoming weeknd, are likely to be posted again as the grounds are saturated and will not have time to run off. Since I am not there, I cannot comment on actual conditions so please see our great correspondents comments to the left of your screen. I do know I have had a tough time logging into my computer at work, indicative of Internet and/or power loss.

 

The future of 97L is interesting. Looks like most models have it aiming for South Florida with the SHIPS model bringing it to Cat 1 status around 60 hours out. Very warm waters, lowering wind shear, and lack of interaction with serious land masses like Cuba and the DR will all enhance 97L's chances of becoming our second named storm. Needless to say, almost every nation from the DR, Haiti, Cuba, and northward will experience flooding rains and gusty winds. A depression is likely late Wednesday.

 

Off to the east, a wave expected to arrive into the Eastern Caribbean is not as vigorous but that doesn't mean it can't spin up quickly and will bring more rain to an already soggy region. And the newest pretender to the throne is just coming off the African coast and looking pretty impressive.

 

While we may not see the number of named storms predicted originally earlier in the season and before, one is the number you should pay attention too.

 

Dave

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