Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good morning!

Yes, it's about that time to start preliminary preparedness actions as the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane is just a mere 40 days away and we all know how fast 40 days can go by. Wasn't Christmas just yesterday?

Current predictions by all respected agencies and forecasters are for an above average season again. The Caribbean has been fairly lucky the last few years but that will not hold for long as the odds unfortunately are getting increasingly larger for a direct hit somewhere Caribbean -wise and it won't be pretty.

It's never too early to start thinking, especially since we have had systems form in May and early June as Gert noted; granted not powerful systems but heavy rainmakers and flooders which can and has done more damage than the winds. Speaking of, prayers and thoughts are with those in Dominica as two well known atheletes lost their lives due to heavy rains and the damage it caused. See the latest Dominica postings on the right.

Rain is something we here in the NE Caribbean have been sorely lacking. "Official" deficits are currently close to 3 inches although St. Croix, the scene of wildfires mainly arson in nature, received some good showers yesterday. Some areas of the islands are running close to 5 inches of deficit since December leaving a bland brown landscape as opposed to a picturesque, lush green foliage appearance commonly thought of when thinking of tropical islands. I actually had to buy a truckload of water 5 weeks ago; first time since 1999!!

The last week of Carnival on St. Thomas is upon us though and that usually bodes the beginning of a wetter period leading to June 1st. As long as the Food Fair, and the parades stay dry, I say let the scattered rain come in moderation!! Hey, it would keep J'ouve a bit cooler in many ways!!!

As a last thought for the day, the allegy inducing Saharan dust is starting to pick up and it won't be long before our first tropical wave appears on the eastern horizon. Time to start thinking, taching your kids, and preparing. Good luck to us all!

Dave

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2013. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON.

- Updates from the Islands -