Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Matthew | Nicole | Otto | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (21:15 UTC, 57 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

97L Invest:
96L Invest:

Wednesday, July 20, 2016 10:29AM EDT - On the horizon

Good morning all!

After a fast start to the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season and a doldrum start to the EPAC season, role reversal was implemented and the Atlantic chilled out while the EPAC is still steaming along but things are about to change.

The EPAC is forecast to slow down and go back to an almost hibernating posture while the Atlantic is forecast to re-awaken from it's slumber, as soon as the next 10-21 days. Long range models, often inaccurate but still a force to be reckoned with, forecast tropical cyclone formation at the end of July with a possibility of a hurricane in about 3 weeks. Again, often inaccurate but now is the time we start to look towards the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde islands, officially renamed, The Republic of Cabo Verde.

There are several factors to consider: SST's (sea surface temperatures) are extremely warm in the Caribbean, western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico while warming up to launch level or approx. 80 degrees F in the waters close to the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes.

Wind shear is not as dramatic as it was last year, mainly due to the decline of El Nino and the slow rise of a possible El Nina while Saharan Dust, while prevalent and thick for the last few months, will be lessening and retreating from the MDR, or main development zone thus allowing the atmosphere to moisten considerably enhancing storm formation.

The tropical waves coming off the African coast will start to keep their intensity after exiting the coast unlike their predecessors so far this year whose demise was assured by dust and cooler waters but that's about to change.

So, if you haven't paid attention, you might want to start taking stock of your supplies, update as needed, have a hurricane plan, and be vigilant. This goes for the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast of the US, not just here in the Caribbean. Hurricane Earl or Fiona might be right around the corner.

Stay safe!

Dave 

Monday, July 4, 2016 09:54AM EDT - Waves, drought and dust

Good morning and Happy 4th of July!

The tropical wave train is quiet on the continent of Africa with one notable exception: an exceptionally large blob exiting the coast tonight with quite the convection association. Transitioning from land to water will not make it easy to keep this size wave together as it's still June and the waters are still a bit cool in the eastern Atlantic along with our infamous Saharan dry dust. Still, it bears watching as it scoots across the Atlantic conveyor belt. You never know with Mother Nature! 

Closer to home, a semi vigorous tropical wave, whose axis is around 55W, is approaching the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands but with less punch and impressiveness than yesterday. Saharan dust drying out the atmosphere along with relentless wind shear has decimated and elongated this wave from it's earlier potential. While this is good news storm formation wise, it is not good for the islands who are experiencing drought conditions again. The moisture belt coming across the Atlantic is quite narrow while dry air is prevalent and high pressure to the north is also bringing a stabilizing presence.

This looks to change in a few weeks as we start looking more to the east for storm formation.

In the Gulf of Mexico, it is quiet too but there is potential if an upper level low can work it's way down to the surface as wind shear is low and the water temperatures are high.

While we were active in the first part of the year, the Pacific was quiet. Now, it's the opposite and Taiwan, if the track holds true, could be in big trouble. As usual, time will tell.

Stay prepared and be safe!

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms about 350 miles south-southeast of
Cabo Verde.  Some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for development early next week when the
system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Nevis [Jul 28 14:14]
- St.Croix [Jul 28 0:02]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jul 27 21:55]
- Antigua [Jul 27 15:38]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jul 25 5:38]
- St.Thomas [Jul 24 9:15]
- Vieques (PR) [Jul 21 14:35]
- St.Lucia [Jul 20 16:57]
- Bonaire [Jul 9 14:52]
- Culebra (PR) [Jul 2 6:00]
- Dominica [Jun 20 9:46]
- Grenada [Jun 17 19:16]
- Barbados [Jun 7 7:05]
- Bermuda [Jun 6 23:00]
- Haiti [Jun 3 0:36]
- Puerto Rico [May 31 13:32]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 27 12:17]
- Anguilla [May 5 13:46]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert