Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Cristobal
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (10:15 UTC, 49 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Cristobal tools:
98L Invest:

Monday, August 25, 2014 11:56AM PDT - Cristobal
The Invest was upgraded to tropical storm Cristobal over the weekend. It should stay nicely off the US coast on its way north/northeast. However, it is expected to become a hurricane in 48 hours or so, but no threat to land.
There is also another invest about 1200 miles off the islands, but it doesn't look that it will develop into anything, we'll see.
I am reporting from a research vesel in the Pacific Ocean at 31.5N, 132.8W. We are currently steaming southwest in order to avoid Category 4 Hurricane Marie (see CPA calculator). I have a new respect for 'fish storms'... -Gert

Friday, August 22, 2014 15:46PM EDT - 96L Trend?

Good afternoon,

While lashing many of the Windward and Leeward Islands with beneficial rains and some gusty winds, 96L has appeared to imitate Bertha a few weeks ago as a discombobulated system. Stretched out over a few thousand miles from tip to tail, it is hard to conceive when exactly will it consolidate and become a name aka Cristobal.

Currently, the COC (center of circulation) of the low is 100+ miles WNW of Puerto Rico although another COC appears to be trying to form south of Puerto Rico at the same time. Consolidation of these two would be definitely hindered by the mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola which comprises Haiti and the Dominican Republic. (By the way I hate when Jim Cantore says the Dominican. Jim, the country has a name; Dominican Republic). I respect and admire the man otherwise.

The effects of this far ranging system are still being felt from south of Barbados up to the easternmost part of the Turks and Caicos. Hello??? Can you say WOW??? Yes, even though not a "named" tropical entity yet, it is a force and will continue to be for the next few days along the Windwards and Leewards.  

Current model forecast and general meteorological thinking has the system finally being designated Cristobal by tomorrow afternoon and quite possibly a hurricane not long after given the lack of strong wind shear and very warm SSTs in the Bahamas. Banding is already starting to manifest itself but its proximity to the DR mountains could hinder its southside development temporarily.

Track forecast right now is iffy. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly late this afternoon and give us some serious updated data. A strike on Florida and/or somewhere up the coast is not out of the question but most models tend towards a trough picking up a stronger system and shoving it out to sea.

Remember, weather is an inexact science still and Mother Nature does not always adhere to a human forecast. Devils advocate. Bottom line is to be prepared whether your in the Bahamas, T&C (already), and the east coast.

Dave

Thursday, August 21, 2014 14:31PM EDT - 96L close

Good afternoon,

Just a quick update.

Hurricane Hunters found a closed surface level circulation but not the requisite organized thunderstorm activity so the NHC is holding off on upgrading to a depression.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak area of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remains limited.
Development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over
south Texas and northern Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave located just west of the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.  This system is
expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with
little development during the next few days.  However, environmental
conditions could become favorable for some development by early next
week in the western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 27 16:52]
- St.Croix [Aug 27 13:23]
- Grenada [Aug 27 8:15]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 26 16:58]
- Nevis [Aug 25 9:54]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 24 10:38]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 24 9:55]
- St.Thomas [Aug 23 10:19]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 23 9:31]
- Anguilla [Aug 22 17:50]
- Haiti [Aug 22 17:20]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 22 16:35]
- Dominica [Aug 22 16:31]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 22 12:30]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 22 7:18]
- Montserrat [Aug 21 19:59]
- Barbados [Aug 21 14:04]
- Bonaire [Aug 21 10:28]
- Antigua [Aug 20 17:21]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 20 9:43]
- St.Lucia [Aug 19 21:18]
- Martinique [Aug 2 13:25]
- St.John [Aug 2 10:22]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 1 16:05]
- Aruba [Jul 30 9:10]
- Curaçao [Jul 29 20:02]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert