Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred |

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Dolly
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (05:45 UTC, 58 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Dolly tools:

Monday, September 1, 2014 22:56PM PDT - Tropical Storm Dolly
The fifth tropical depression has been upgraded to tropical storm Dolly. It is located in the Bay of Campeche, just north of the Yucatan. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm by Wednesday morning. The biggest threat of this storm will be the torrential rainfall which might cause flash flooding and mudslides. Use the tools above to see the threatened areas. Reporting from 29N, 146W in the Pacific, with some slow but live internet. -Gert

Saturday, August 30, 2014 10:29AM EDT - Next!

Good morning!

What once was Invest 97L has now been relabeled Invest 99L and is south of Jamaica moving off to the WNW on a collision course with the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Bay of Campeche in the SW Gulf of Mexico and ultimately as a probable low to mid tropical storm with the northern Mexico, southern Texas coast. Hopefully, the system will bring beneficial rains to those areas and not much flooding although the ex invest 98L remnants are drenching these same areas and points north into Galveston, Houston and even Louisiana but not reaching too far inland where it is sorely needed.

Cristobal, ex hurricane and now extra tropical whose long life has been spent mainly threatening shipping interests is now racing towards his date with Lady Iceland at about 45 mph. Still packing a punch as most of these extra tropical storms do after the transition from tropical to extra tropical Cristobal will probably give Europe a good jolt as well.

Down south by Trinidad and Tobago we have a wave moving through with no chances of development but squally winds and rains will be prevalent and the rain is needed.

Out in the central Atlantic it appears a wave around 45 degrees west is making a case for Invest status and I believe it should be classified by now and should be soon. Moving mainly west about 15 mph, the bulk of the increased thunderstorm activity is actually around a cluster at 36 degrees west, 12 north. Upper level winds are moderate and the majority of dry Saharan dust is to it's north so some slow growth is possible although the NHC only gives it a 10% chance by Wednesday. If it stays far south then I agree with that but if it starts a shift more WNW then I see an improved chance for some development. We seem to be the "birthing grounds" for storm this year with Bertha and Cristobal already hatched.

The African mainland has another impressive wave with its exit strategy coming to fruition in about three days or so. It is the heart of hurricane season and we should expect nothing less. Be prepared. You never know.

Dave 

Monday, August 25, 2014 11:56AM PDT - Cristobal
The Invest was upgraded to tropical storm Cristobal over the weekend. It should stay nicely off the US coast on its way north/northeast. However, it is expected to become a hurricane in 48 hours or so, but no threat to land.
There is also another invest about 1200 miles off the islands, but it doesn't look that it will develop into anything, we'll see.
I am reporting from a research vesel in the Pacific Ocean at 31.5N, 132.8W. We are currently steaming southwest in order to avoid Category 4 Hurricane Marie (see CPA calculator). I have a new respect for 'fish storms'... -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Sep 2 0:36]
- Grenada [Sep 1 21:48]
- Dominica [Sep 1 17:09]
- Culebra (PR) [Sep 1 7:22]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 31 20:52]
- Belize [Aug 31 11:28]
- Nevis [Aug 30 15:12]
- St.Thomas [Aug 30 10:19]
- Anguilla [Aug 30 10:15]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 30 0:17]
- Antigua [Aug 28 7:15]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 27 16:52]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 24 10:38]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 24 9:55]
- Haiti [Aug 22 17:20]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 22 16:35]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 22 12:30]
- Montserrat [Aug 21 19:59]
- Barbados [Aug 21 14:04]
- Bonaire [Aug 21 10:28]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 20 9:43]
- St.Lucia [Aug 19 21:18]
- Martinique [Aug 2 13:25]
- St.John [Aug 2 10:22]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 1 16:05]
- Aruba [Jul 30 9:10]
- Curaçao [Jul 29 20:02]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



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The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert