2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (18:15 UTC, 46 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].
Friday, January 15, 2016 07:29AM EST
Happy New Year!
I hope everyone had a fun, somewhat relaxing and enjoyable holiday. While traditionally we don't start thinking about the upcoming tropical season for a few months, the new year brought us not only 2016 but the surprise birth of Hurricane Alex!
A cat 1 hurricane, Alex is starting to lose some intensity over 67 degree waters which, is a rarity itself in that Alex is a hurricane that formed in the North Atlantic in waters well below the minimum 80 degree threshold for the fuel for these storms. Hurricane Alex is noteworthy for several other reasons as well. While Alex is the first named storm of 2016, it's also the first named storm to form in the Atlantic in January since 1978 and the first January hurricane since 1938!
The Azores, home to about 250,000 people now, are already experiencing the vanguard of Alex's attack. The central islands will take the brunt of the storm while the eastern islands should sustain lesser effects with heavy rains, flash flooding and a deadly storm surge all the way around. Current top winds are 75 mph with higher gusts and the wind speeds will be higher as they hit the higher altitude volcanic slopes. Forward speed is 24 mph and it is heading north with a turn to the NNW expected after it's passage.
Alex is expected to turn extra-tropical by late this afternoon as it moves over even colder waters and the temperature difference between the waters and the air robs it of energy but with this transition comes an expansion in the wind radii (wind field) so a weakening hurricane Alex will become a powerful extra-tropical storm menacing shipping lanes and eventually, a date with Greenland.
No correlation exists between how early storms form before the actual official start of the tropical season on June 1 and the amount of activity actually experienced during season but it does make for some interesting conversation and theories.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016 14:41PM PST - First storm of the season!
- Are you ready? We are always ready I guess... but here is Alex, the first storm of the year, not season I guess! Luckily it is far away from us and won't be a threat to us either. It is expected to pass near the Azores as an extratropical storm. -Gert
Sunday, December 6, 2015 10:57AM PST - 2015 Season is Over!
- And another hurricane season is behind us! A relatively quiet one, with 11 named storms and 4 hurricanes, of which two were major ones (Danny and Joaquin). For the Caribbean Tropical Storm Erika caused a lot of destruction in Dominica. At least 31 people died, 890 homes destroyed, entire villages flattened, and over 14,000 people were rendered homeless. And then we had Joaquin, who was supposed to turn before it reached the Bahamas, but didn't, and quickly strenthened into a Category 4 storm when it slowly passed over Crooked Island, Acklins Island, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador. Hopefully 2016 will be nicer to us! -Gert
Sunday, November 8, 2015 22:13PM EST
- TD#12, Kate?
Good Sunday evening!
Quick note, just when you thought it was really over, an unwanted tropical surprise shows up in the form of TD #12 and is looking to join the season ending dance as our next TS, Kate.
Having drenched and blessed us here in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with needed rains, the system is now around the SE Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are up for the SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas and the NW Bahamas as probable TS Kate passes through the next 24-48 hours.
Gusty winds and heavy rains will prevail in the Turks & Caicos and the Bahamas warning areas as it moves to the NW at 14 mph. At this time, almost all computer models show no direct effects on the continental US as this late bloomer is expected to be escorted off the tropical dance floor by a sagging front coming off the US east coast.
More tomorrow. Have a good evening!
Friday, October 23, 2015 07:52AM PDT - Patricia: 200mph!
- I was reading the advisories for Patricia, just off the west coast of Mexico and had to do a double take: sustained winds at 200mph! Minimum central pressure at 880mbar! In comparison, Katrina had max. sustained winds of 175mph and 902mbar minimum pressure, Luis was 140mph, 935mbar... So this is a huge storm! Worse, it is less than 12 hours from making landfall!
It is expected to move between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. The closest point of approach with Puerto Vallarta is only about 32 miles and for Manzanillo about 60 miles. According to the advisories hurricane force winds extend outward only up to 30 miles (tropical storm winds 175 miles), so that's good for the lovely city of Puerto Vallarta. However, for people directly in Patricia's path it is bad. At least the hurricane is expected to move quite fast and will weaken rapidly while over land. But there will be mud slides and flooding, a dangerous storm surge, etc. Not a good situation at all.
You can calculate the closest point of approach on this page. Latitude/longitude coordinates for Puerto Vallarta 20.67N, 105.27W and Manzanillo 19.05N, 104.32W. Advisories on the National Hurricane Center website. Stay safe out there! -Gert
Update: Jeff Masters from Wunderground just wrote on his excellent blog: "Stunning, historic, mind-blogging, and catastrophic: that sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight.". Read more on Patricia, including threats to Manzanillo on his blog...
Monday, October 5, 2015 09:40AM PDT - Another Invest
- Wow, pretty busy on the storm front. Joaquin is moving away from Bermuda. I am trying to get some reports from my correspondents on the island. I have just posted on the Bahamas-page a link to our Facebook page where I shared some pictures from other people. And now we have another Invest. It is currently about 1000 miles from the islands. The National Hurricane Center gives it a very low probability that it will become something. However, since the model tracks (spaghetti plots) have it track over the northeastern Leeward Island we have to keep an eye on it. Also, some models do actually forecast it to be a tropical storm or even a hurricane in 48 hours, which seems unlikely to me. Stay tuned... -Gert
Sunday, October 4, 2015 09:55AM PDT - Bermuda
- The center of Joaquin is expected to pass just about 80 miles to the west of Bermuda. The island is officially just outside sustained hurricane storm force winds, but for sure will have gusts of that force and sustained tropical storm force winds. The strongest part of the storm is to the south east, so basically the tail. Apart from the wind the storm surge might pose a problem as well. Luckily Bermuda seems always very well prepared for these kind of storms, so hopefully all goes well. It will be a whole different situation than it was for the Bahamas where Joaquin as a Category 4 storm just sat for a few days.
As for the Bahamas, I wish I was getting more updates. I have found some Facebook pages, Long Island and San Salvador. If you know of other good sources, please let me know. -Gert
... Older discussions >>
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
610 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Alex, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Public Advisories on Alex are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Alex are
issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Trinidad & Tobago [Feb 4 1:56]
- Anguilla [Feb 2 11:18]
- Nevis [Feb 2 7:40]
- Saba [Feb 1 10:56]
- Culebra (PR) [Feb 1 6:31]
- Bonaire [Jan 29 5:49]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jan 14 14:03]
- Dominica [Jan 12 7:42]
- St.Thomas [Dec 30 7:16]
- Barbados [Dec 24 17:28]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Dec 24 9:22]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 22:47]
- Curaçao [Nov 28 10:37]
- Dominican Republic [Nov 8 18:13]
- Guadeloupe [Nov 6 12:02]
- St.Lucia [Nov 6 10:20]
- Aruba [Oct 26 10:05]
- Bahamas [Oct 24 18:11]
- Belize [Oct 22 17:18]
- Grenada [Oct 8 9:09]
- Bermuda [Oct 6 7:02]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 3 13:49]
- Antigua [Oct 2 7:16]
- Haiti [Sep 21 20:30]
- Montserrat [Sep 11 20:38]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 2 23:13]
- Jamaica [Aug 30 21:00]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 30 13:33]
- St.John [Aug 30 12:30]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 28 10:18]
- Statia [Aug 27 16:50]
- St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide