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2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (04:45 UTC, 62 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Friday, January 15, 2016 07:29AM EST - Surprise!

Good morning!

Happy New Year!

I hope everyone had a fun, somewhat relaxing and enjoyable holiday. While traditionally we don't start thinking about the upcoming tropical season for a few months, the new year brought us not only 2016 but the surprise birth of Hurricane Alex!

A cat 1 hurricane, Alex is starting to lose some intensity over 67 degree waters which, is a rarity itself in that Alex is a hurricane that formed in the North Atlantic in waters well below the minimum 80 degree threshold for the fuel for these storms. Hurricane Alex is noteworthy for several other reasons as well. While Alex is the first named storm of 2016, it's also the first named storm to form in the Atlantic in January since 1978 and the first January hurricane since 1938! 

The Azores, home to about 250,000 people now, are already experiencing the vanguard of Alex's attack. The central islands will take the brunt of the storm while the eastern islands should sustain lesser effects with heavy rains, flash flooding and a deadly storm surge all the way around. Current top winds are 75 mph with higher gusts and the wind speeds will be higher as they hit the higher altitude volcanic slopes. Forward speed is 24 mph and it is heading north with a turn to the NNW expected after it's passage.

Alex is expected to turn extra-tropical by late this afternoon as it moves over even colder waters and the temperature difference between the waters and the air robs it of energy but with this transition comes an expansion in the wind radii (wind field) so a weakening hurricane Alex will become a powerful extra-tropical storm menacing shipping lanes and eventually, a date with Greenland.

No correlation exists between how early storms form before the actual official start of the tropical season on June 1 and the amount of activity actually experienced during season but it does make for some interesting conversation and theories.


Wednesday, January 13, 2016 14:41PM PST - First storm of the season!
Are you ready? We are always ready I guess... but here is Alex, the first storm of the year, not season I guess! Luckily it is far away from us and won't be a threat to us either. It is expected to pass near the Azores as an extratropical storm. -Gert

Sunday, December 6, 2015 10:57AM PST - 2015 Season is Over!
And another hurricane season is behind us! A relatively quiet one, with 11 named storms and 4 hurricanes, of which two were major ones (Danny and Joaquin). For the Caribbean Tropical Storm Erika caused a lot of destruction in Dominica. At least 31 people died, 890 homes destroyed, entire villages flattened, and over 14,000 people were rendered homeless. And then we had Joaquin, who was supposed to turn before it reached the Bahamas, but didn't, and quickly strenthened into a Category 4 storm when it slowly passed over Crooked Island, Acklins Island, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador. Hopefully 2016 will be nicer to us! -Gert

Sunday, November 8, 2015 22:13PM EST - TD#12, Kate?

Good Sunday evening!

Quick note, just when you thought it was really over, an unwanted tropical surprise shows up in the form of TD #12 and is looking to join the season ending dance as our next TS, Kate.

Having drenched and blessed us here in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with needed rains, the system is now around the SE Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are up for the SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas and the NW Bahamas as probable TS Kate passes through the next 24-48 hours.

Gusty winds and heavy rains will prevail in the Turks & Caicos and the Bahamas warning areas as it moves to the NW at 14 mph. At this time, almost all computer models show no direct effects on the continental US as this late bloomer is expected to be escorted off the tropical dance floor by a sagging front coming off the US east coast.

More tomorrow. Have a good evening!


Friday, October 23, 2015 07:52AM PDT - Patricia: 200mph!
I was reading the advisories for Patricia, just off the west coast of Mexico and had to do a double take: sustained winds at 200mph! Minimum central pressure at 880mbar! In comparison, Katrina had max. sustained winds of 175mph and 902mbar minimum pressure, Luis was 140mph, 935mbar... So this is a huge storm! Worse, it is less than 12 hours from making landfall!

It is expected to move between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo. The closest point of approach with Puerto Vallarta is only about 32 miles and for Manzanillo about 60 miles. According to the advisories hurricane force winds extend outward only up to 30 miles (tropical storm winds 175 miles), so that's good for the lovely city of Puerto Vallarta. However, for people directly in Patricia's path it is bad. At least the hurricane is expected to move quite fast and will weaken rapidly while over land. But there will be mud slides and flooding, a dangerous storm surge, etc. Not a good situation at all.

You can calculate the closest point of approach on this page. Latitude/longitude coordinates for Puerto Vallarta 20.67N, 105.27W and Manzanillo 19.05N, 104.32W. Advisories on the National Hurricane Center website. Stay safe out there! -Gert

Update: Jeff Masters from Wunderground just wrote on his excellent blog: "Stunning, historic, mind-blogging, and catastrophic: that sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight.". Read more on Patricia, including threats to Manzanillo on his blog...

Monday, October 5, 2015 09:40AM PDT - Another Invest
Wow, pretty busy on the storm front. Joaquin is moving away from Bermuda. I am trying to get some reports from my correspondents on the island. I have just posted on the Bahamas-page a link to our Facebook page where I shared some pictures from other people. And now we have another Invest. It is currently about 1000 miles from the islands. The National Hurricane Center gives it a very low probability that it will become something. However, since the model tracks (spaghetti plots) have it track over the northeastern Leeward Island we have to keep an eye on it. Also, some models do actually forecast it to be a tropical storm or even a hurricane in 48 hours, which seems unlikely to me. Stay tuned... -Gert

Sunday, October 4, 2015 09:55AM PDT - Bermuda
The center of Joaquin is expected to pass just about 80 miles to the west of Bermuda. The island is officially just outside sustained hurricane storm force winds, but for sure will have gusts of that force and sustained tropical storm force winds. The strongest part of the storm is to the south east, so basically the tail. Apart from the wind the storm surge might pose a problem as well. Luckily Bermuda seems always very well prepared for these kind of storms, so hopefully all goes well. It will be a whole different situation than it was for the Bahamas where Joaquin as a Category 4 storm just sat for a few days.

As for the Bahamas, I wish I was getting more updates. I have found some Facebook pages, Long Island and San Salvador. If you know of other good sources, please let me know. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
610 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Alex, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.


Public Advisories on Alex are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Alex are
issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header

Forecaster Brennan
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Feb 13 15:16]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Feb 4 1:56]
- Anguilla [Feb 2 11:18]
- Nevis [Feb 2 7:40]
- Saba [Feb 1 10:56]
- Culebra (PR) [Feb 1 6:31]
- Bonaire [Jan 29 5:49]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Jan 14 14:03]
- Dominica [Jan 12 7:42]
- Barbados [Dec 24 17:28]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Dec 24 9:22]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 22:47]
- Curaçao [Nov 28 10:37]
- Dominican Republic [Nov 8 18:13]
- Guadeloupe [Nov 6 12:02]
- St.Lucia [Nov 6 10:20]
- Aruba [Oct 26 10:05]
- Bahamas [Oct 24 18:11]
- Belize [Oct 22 17:18]
- Grenada [Oct 8 9:09]
- Bermuda [Oct 6 7:02]
- Turks & Caicos [Oct 3 13:49]
- Antigua [Oct 2 7:16]
- Haiti [Sep 21 20:30]
- Montserrat [Sep 11 20:38]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 2 23:13]
- Jamaica [Aug 30 21:00]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 30 13:33]
- St.John [Aug 30 12:30]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 28 10:18]
- Statia [Aug 27 16:50]
- St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45]
- General Update [Jun 16 19:53]
- Martinique [May 28 18:08]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact

This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.

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The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to Gert