Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arthur | Bertha | Cristobal | Dolly | Edouard | Fay | Gonzalo | Hanna | Isaias | Josephine | Kyle | Laura | Marco | Nana | Omar | Paulette | Rene | Sally | Teddy | Vicky | Wilfred |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (15:45 UTC, 35 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Tuesday, November 4, 2014 19:11PM EST - Non Tropical Entity


Good evening!

Flooding a real possibility tonight if these cells hold together, especially for St. Croix in next few hours and St. Thomas/St. John and the BVIs closer to midnight. More to come very probable tomorrow and Puerto Rico, while taking the brunt earlier today, will probably take some backlash overnite and tomorrow as well. Stay safe my friends! WAPA may have a rough go with the abundance of lightning which is actually not very prevalent during the course of the year but when it does happen, it happens!

Dave

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 17:38PM PDT - Thank you for donating!
I have just ended the donation drive. It was a bit longer than I wanted, but thank you all for donating! I am so happy to receive the support when I need it. Sorry, if I haven’t personally thanked you yet. I am again on a cruise, this time on my way to the Antarctic and the internet is just too slow to check or above all to respond to email. I did not even realize that we had Hanna out there! Thanks again! -Gert

Monday, October 27, 2014 18:50PM EDT - Hanna/96L

Good evening from Florida,

TS Hanna sure was a surprise when not a whole day had passed by after the NHC had given the system a 10% chance of development and voila! See, we are not as advanced as you think. Weather is an inexact science, has been and will continue to be.

TS Hanna is located on the Honduran Nicaraguan border and should diminish as rapidly as she formed by Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rains and flooding with mudslides will be the biggest problems in Nicaragua while Honduras is in the midst of a severe drought and could use all the rain it can get although not as fast and heavy as Hanna is going to deliver it.

Elsewhere the Atlantic Basin has a few weak waves trying to push westward and WNW and will bring rains over this week to the Eastern Caribbean. The primary culprit will be 95L, a few hundred miles off to the east of the Windward Islands. Most of the intensity models keep this below tropical storm strength and after passing through, upper level wind shear should prohibit it further thoughts at greatness. We could definitely use the rain. It does bring back thoughts of Gonzalo though.

Models are showing another possibility in a few weeks in the SW Caribbean but too early to put any emphasis on that. Here in Central Florida, the drying continues with low humidities, cloudless days, cool nights and just overall beautiful weather and this will continue for the next 5 days with a spit possible on Friday.

Dave

Saturday, October 18, 2014 07:21AM PDT - Waiting for news...
With power out for most of Bermduda, we have to be a bit patient to hear some news. There is no need to panic if you have not heard from your family or friends, they are just unable to get in contact with you. Reuters reports that there is widespread damage, but no reports of fatalities or serious injuries yet. This was a strong hurricane, but with Bermuda's very strict building codes they can hopefully recover quickly. Read the latest updates from the hurricane correspondents as they come in here. Google News or Yahoo News are good places to find information as well -Gert

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 08:37AM PDT - Gonzalo
October surprise or not? Most people in the northern leeward islands like St.Maarten/St.Martin, Anguilla and St.Barts, were expecting a tropical storm, instead they got a strong Category 1 hurricane. Unfortunately most people were not prepared for this, and apparently one man lost his life on St.Maarten. As far as I know, two more are missing (one on St.Martin and one in St.Barts). For more read the reports by the special hurricane correspondents on the islands as they come in.
Right now Gonzalo has strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds near 130mph! This makes it the strongest Atlantic hurricane in three years... Looking at the Closest Point of Approach-calculator the eye of the storm is expected to pass just to the left of Bermuda (55 miles) in about 2 days (Friday, 2:00PM AST). At that time it will have weakened just a bit, but is still expected to be a major hurricane with 120mph winds! Fay was a wake up call for Bermuda, this will be the real thing, esp. if the track shifts just a bit to the east.
For the people on the islands who want to see what hit them, there are some radar loops from Guadeloupe and San Juan showing the path of Gonzalo through the islands on Brian McNoldy's website. In any case, I wish I had some more positive news to tell, this shows again that tropical systems should not be underestimated, even if you expect 'just' a tropical storm. It is still a storm! Stay safe people on Bermuda! -Gert

Monday, October 13, 2014 14:12PM EDT - Gonzalo update

Good afternoon!

I know they aren't saying it yet but I am: Gonzalo is a Cat 1 hurricane. Storm centered 17°32'N, 62°21'W, 30 miles ENE of Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis with a 20 nautical mile eye. Surface level winds at 73.6 mph and are expected to strengthen even with a little dry air around as wind shear is light and SST's are nicely warm. Flight level winds were clocked at a maximum of 82.9 mph as of the flight level time less than an hour ago.

More later. Have to reinforce the towel brigade!

Dave

Sunday, October 12, 2014 10:59AM EDT - Gonzalo

Good morning all and hello to TS Gonzalo!

While the official word is not out yet, I would find it hard to believe that we do not have TS Gonzalo right now, currently located about 230 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

I believe at the 11 am advisory TS watches and warnings will be posted due to this systems close proximity to the islands, forecast track, and limited time available left before impact. Hurricane Hunters will investigate this afternoon but by then the time frame will be even more limited so the NHC should pull the trigger on this soon. Only reason it might not is conclusive evidence a low level circulation has not formed or closed off but common sense dictates otherwise and time is of the essence especially for the boating community.

A trough is expected to protect the mainland US from a strike from soon to be named Gonzalo but the Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, PR and the DR should be watching closely as hurricane status is a good possibility down the road Tuesday through the end of the week. Bermuda, already and currently dealing with rapidly passing TS Fay, will probably be enlightened by Gonzalo as well chasing Fays skirt tails.

A flash flood watch has been issued for the northern islands and it remains to be seen just what will be on our doorstep designation wise tomorrow. Doesn't matter what it is designated though as heavy rains, angry seas, water spouts, flooding and "scattered" power outages are an almost definite.

Off to the east we also have another contender to an otherwise meager Atlantic tropical throne, 91L but it appears to have lost some of its luster for the time being.

More later as we get some conclusive information from the Hurricane Hunters. Me? Time to activate the towel brigade which has been well rested this year but is still battle tested.

Dave

Saturday, October 11, 2014 11:51AM PDT - Fay and more
It has been awhile since I posted, a good thing! A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda because of Fay. The Closest Point of Approach-tool says that the center will get as close as about 70 miles to the east of Bermuda, well within tropical storm force wind range. Also most of the advection is on the Bermuda side, so they will experience some stormy weather. But knowing Bermuda, they can absorb it easily!
There are also two invests out there. Number 90L could become Gonzalo in the next day or so and is expected to skirt just north or over the northern islands as soon as tomorrow. We definitely have to keep an eye on this one, since it might become a hurricane at some point. Regardless, heavy rains in store for the northern Leeward Islands. Use the tools above to see how the storms can affect you!
A final note, the donation drive is going ok, thanks for donating! Unfortunately I still need some more... I hope to end it next week! So please, if you haven't done so, please, donate. Stay safe... -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Nov 21 20:47]
- Dominica [Nov 21 11:23]
- Barbados [Nov 21 10:43]
- Grenada [Nov 21 8:39]
- St.Kitts [Nov 20 8:26]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Nov 20 1:18]
- Anguilla [Nov 18 19:46]
- Nevis [Nov 18 10:26]
- St.Thomas [Nov 12 9:14]
- Montserrat [Nov 8 17:37]
- St.Lucia [Nov 8 13:54]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 8 11:56]
- Culebra (PR) [Nov 8 6:32]
- Puerto Rico [Oct 31 9:02]
- Dominican Republic [Oct 27 9:07]
- Bermuda [Oct 23 20:23]
- Belize [Oct 18 17:38]
- Antigua [Oct 16 7:04]
- St.Barts [Oct 14 19:33]
- Saba [Oct 14 15:23]
- Statia [Oct 14 13:43]
- St.John [Oct 14 6:50]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Oct 13 16:08]
- Curaçao [Oct 10 10:29]
- Bonaire [Oct 3 19:00]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 22 16:00]
- Martinique [Sep 20 18:39]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 24 9:55]
- Haiti [Aug 22 17:20]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 22 12:30]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 1 16:05]
- Aruba [Jul 30 9:10]
- Jamaica [Jul 21 16:35]
- Florida Keys [Jul 3 8:22]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert