Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
| Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Ingrid | Jerry | Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (19:45 UTC, 37 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].
Monday, November 18, 2013 15:52PM PST - Melissa and Haiyan
- Here we have a late subtropical storm in the Atlantic, Melissa. It should not be a threat to any land, nor is it expected to become a hurricane.
On another note, the situation in the Philippines is very dire. I was just reading an article by Reuters where a spokeswoman from the United Nations said "The size, the quantity of people that have been affected by this, this is massive, between 10 and 12.9 million people have to be assisted to recover from this. This is absolutely huge. It's like taking the whole of Belgium and trying to assist." Also, apparently they have not been able to reach some of the smaller islands as of yet... It is a very sad situation. If you want to donate, the Red Cross is a good option.
Reporting from Punta Arenas, Chile. Off for an Antarctic research cruise, no internet for 66 days. See you in Tasmania! -Gert
Thursday, November 7, 2013 12:52PM EST
I am sitting in Miami International Airport looking at a monster; a totally destructive monster name Super Typhoon Haiyan which is about to hurl 195 mph "sustained" winds and 230 mph gusts at the Phillipines along with 14-18 foot storm surges. Folks, this is about as intense as it gets for a landfalling cyclone. My thoughts and prayers to this already storm battered nation.
Thursday, October 31, 2013 07:20AM EDT
- Late season Tricks!
Good morning all!!
A quiet season it has been as far as intensity goes and with a lack of Cape Verde storms developing due to stable, sinking air and our favorite culprit, that pesky dry Saharan Dust Layer, it appears, on the surface, that the season is virtually over. Not so fast!!
Hurricane season "officially" ends in the Atlantic on November 30th. Today is Halloween which is October 31st meaning 30 more days to go so lets see what is potentially brewing right now: nothing!
However, our friends in the Western Caribbean should be extra vigilant over the next few weeks as most of the computer models show not one but possibly two storms forming in the Western Caribbean basin and moving pretty much into the Gulf of Mexico. The SST's (sea surface temperatures) contain ginormous untapped heat energy while the MJO (a large area of unstable and active weather that circles the globe every 60-90 days) is a very enhancing factor and will be around that area for about the next two weeks while wind shear will not be a factor. No dust, no stable air, no sinking air, and abundant moisture. Once again, all the ingredients will be in the Caribbean mixing bowl but will they gel? Historically speaking this is a favorable area for development this time of season mainly due to systems forming at the end of stalled out fronts draping down from the US but occasionally forming from a wave from the east.
As usual, time will tell and most of the forecast storms this year have not verified and the ones that have were weak and short-lived. However, if one of these verifies, an angry tiger with a lot of pent up energy will be on the loose and when its loose in the Western Caribbean, it has to hit land somewhere unless it goes due west, an unlikely scenario but not unheard of (Lenny).
Off to the east plenty of moisture is evident on satellite off the coast of Africa which will work its way across the Atlantic but very disorganized and broad in nature. Here closer to home, we might see heavy rainfall possibly Friday through Sunday as 2 upper level lows form in conjunction with a surface trough (front) and hang around a while inducing a train of rain from the south. Feast or famine on the rainfall and while we need some, we don't need it all at once. Nor this weekend as two of my friends are getting married Saturday.
Stay vigilant and from Louisiana to Florida you might want to check your aging supplies just in case you dove into them this year to be on the safe side. Complacency is a bad thing.
Monday, October 21, 2013 13:42PM PDT - Tropical Storm Lorenzo
- Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed a couple hundred miles east southeast of Bermuda. It will probably be short lived and not threat to any land. So no worries here. Things are different in the Pacific with major Hurricane Raymond threatening Mexico and Typhoon Francisco heading for Japan. The picture below is from Francisco (source: CIMSS Satellite Blog! Very scary. More info on Jeff Master's Wunderblog.-Gert
Tuesday, October 15, 2013 09:47AM PDT - Tropics extremely quiet in Atlantic
- I love these kind of headlines! The only other year in recorded history in which no major hurricanes occurred in the Atlantic or the East Pacific is 1968. Read more on Brian McNoldy's blog post. And Invest 98L is no more either!-Gert
Sunday, October 13, 2013 09:12AM EDT
Good Sunday morning all!
Halfway between the coast of Africa and the Windward Islands is 98L, an area of interest to the National Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel hypists, and, of course, us here in the Caribbean. Looking much better yesterday than today, 98L is fighting higher wind shear and dry air entraining itself from the north. The pundits give it a 10% chance of tropical formation and I must admit it is fighting for its very survival as an "invest".
Expected to move north of the Northeastern Antilles, my opinion is that it will come through the Northeastern Antilles, if not a bit farther south due to the trough digging in from the north. If 98L had developed by now, this would be a different scenario as a stronger system would have taken advantage of the earths rotation and spun more to the NW. Instead, the weaker system, still classified as a tropical wave, will push more to the west than NW. A weaker system is also less likely to be picked up by a steering front or trough and recurved out to sea to be a fish storm. The steering currents are at the higher altitudes. If this has no high cloud tops and development, it goes where it wants to go which is riding the low level trades.
Expect some decent rains from 98L Wednesday, maybe Thursday depending on forward speed. Development for the next few days will be tough due to hostile wind shear but if it survives the next three days, things could get mighty interesting.
Behind 98L is another, lower tropical low which has not been discussed by the NHC. Interesting to watch too seeing 98L is plowing the road, taking the wind shear hits, and moistening the path ahead. In addition, SST's (sea surface temps), which is the fuel for these systems, is readily available and hasn't been tampered with in hurricane eons.
Home, here in the USVI, we definitely can use the rain as Isabel said from St. Croix. My cistern is starting to grumble after gulping up the copious rainfall of 5 weeks ago. Watching the scattered, heavy and slow moving rain showers fall all over Jost Van Dyke in the BVI's and St. John the last few days while, just a mere 4 miles away across Pillsbury Sound, I watch with drooling anticipation, has only wetted (no pun) my appetite and my cisterns.
Have a great rest of the weekend!
... Older discussions >>
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRIMARLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 7 AM EST ON SATURDAY
DECEMBER 7...OR SOONER...IF NECESSARY.
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view satellite imagery|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Dec 5 14:55]
- Grenada [Dec 3 7:38]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Dec 2 4:33]
- Anguilla [Dec 1 19:49]
- Culebra (PR) [Dec 1 5:10]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 18:19]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Nov 21 6:41]
- Saba [Nov 11 4:53]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Nov 5 10:09]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Nov 5 0:00]
- St.John [Nov 3 6:56]
- Dominica [Nov 2 16:02]
- Nevis [Nov 2 7:26]
- Haiti [Nov 1 9:58]
- Curaçao [Oct 31 18:36]
- Barbados [Oct 26 10:44]
- Belize [Oct 26 8:11]
- St.Lucia [Oct 25 13:19]
- Bonaire [Oct 9 5:55]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 2 0:05]
- Jamaica [Oct 1 12:20]
- Florida Keys [Oct 1 8:24]
- Martinique [Sep 27 14:28]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Sep 13 10:24]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 11 21:48]
- Antigua [Sep 11 19:50]
- Bermuda [Sep 10 21:11]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 7 14:37]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 5 7:55]
- Montserrat [Sep 3 20:07]
- Aruba [Aug 15 9:20]
- St.Kitts [Jul 28 7:25]
- St.Barts [Jul 21 12:09]
- Bahamas [May 22 23:53]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-130mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 131-155mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >155mph
More info in the Practical Guide
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!
Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (email@example.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to firstname.lastname@example.org. Gert