Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (07:15 UTC, 53 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Tuesday, October 17, 2017 08:55AM EDT - Quiet

Good morning,

It's quick update time.

Well, it's been a long time since the tropical weather update stated "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days". Good as we needed the break!

92L dumped copious amounts of unwanted, unneeded rain on the NE Caribbean this weekend and now has a date with Bermuda as possibly a weak TS, a TD, or just as the invest it is. Regardless, they will experience some squally weather but not much else.

Off to the east, there are several waves as to be expected but development is not expected due to hostile wind shear. Still, periods of rain will cross the islands from time to time.

Dave


Friday, October 13, 2017 16:45PM EDT - 92L

Good afternoon,

With the concentration of most weather experts watching the ever growing legacy of Hurricane Ophelia, soon to have a date with the southern Azores and eventually Ireland, our attention is focused on our neck of the woods, aka the Caribbean. And yes, the NHC finally designated the tropical wave in close proximity off to our east an Invest, 92L, which I had mentioned it should have yesterday due to it's potential plus the fact many nerves are frayed and stress is at an all time level after the passing of our twin Cat 5's last month. There is much edginess with the unknown.

92L is currently an elongated tropical wave which, down the road a few days, has the potential to become TS Philippe as it treks to the WNW about 15 mph with a more NNW component soon to be evident. This trek puts 92L over and around the NE Caribbean with gusty winds, heavy downpours, and rough seas but no real development as a named entity with a closed center of circulation due to high wind shear. This wind shear is expected to keep development at bay for at least the next 4-5 days. The NE Caribbean, including the BVI's, USVI and Puerto Rico plus Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda and St. Maarten/St. Martin should expect this unwanted visitor late this weekend with Bermuda a possible pit stop on it's way to the North Atlantic graveyard.. Again, development is not expected until after passing north of the islands but at this point, there is not much difference in the weather conditions of a strong, active tropical wave and a tropical depression. Heavy rains, squally gusty winds and rough seas will only serve to exacerbate the NE Caribbean Islands issues on the way to recovering from Irma and Maria.

Be prepared as you can be and vigilant. With the way this season is going, I believe a few more surprises may be in store. 

Dave

Thursday, October 12, 2017 19:04PM EDT - Lurking

Good evening,

The cleanup, restoration, human suffering, continued government incompetence, and incessant rains continue as the NE Caribbean struggles to recover from twin Category 5 hurricanes. Puerto Rico appears to be suffering the worst, especially in the human arena. I don't talk politricks, (that is not a misspelling by the way) but I really think it's disgraceful containers of supplies sit at the port while hundreds of thousands are drinking contaminated water, have little to no food, no other basic necessities, no relief from the rains that have been virtually non stop since Maria, and not much hope, especially evident in the rural areas.

Right now the Caribbean as a whole is pretty quiet. Off the coast of Africa we have a wave about to emerge but not looking like a player at this time. What we do have off to our more immediate east is a large, elongated tropical wave which has flared up some good convection today and looks pretty ominous on satellite.

What's interesting is there is much more talk about hurricane Ophelia being the tenth consecutive hurricane in a row (matched by only three other years, all before 1900 and well before satellite eyes in the sky) than there is about this wave. It's obvious the NHC does not think this has any potential to develop and there is little model support for it to at this time. Reasoning seems to come from the upper level wind shear which is apparent on infrared satellite imagery that is pounding this wave in the face. Regardless though, we have seen systems develop and intensify in the face of strong wind shear and this is no ordinary year as it is. SST's are plenty warm enough, humidity is reasonable and there is no Saharan Dust around. So, that leaves the wind shear from a weakening surface trough to the north of the VI and PR. This wave has raised enough convection throughout the day that it should be labeled an Invest in my opinion. If it does develop, little warning will be afforded the islands in the path. If it doesn't develop, still expect squally weather and potentially heavy rains. Again.

Last on hurricane Ophelia. Expected to brush the SE Azores with squally weather and big waves, she is then expected to have a fresh Guinness when it reaches Western Ireland as a strong extra tropical system matching Cat 1 criteria.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days.  Slow
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves
northwestward to northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- Puerto Rico [Oct 22 23:29]
- St.Croix [Oct 22 17:58]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 22 15:12]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Oct 21 14:20]
- Dominica [Oct 21 10:22]
- Antigua [Oct 21 5:47]
- Relief Efforts/Where to Donate [Oct 20 14:04]
- Bonaire [Oct 20 7:11]
- Anguilla [Oct 19 13:54]
- Grenada [Oct 19 11:21]
- St.Thomas [Oct 19 9:49]
- Barbados [Oct 15 2:01]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Oct 9 11:41]
- St.John [Oct 5 16:44]
- Belize [Oct 4 8:58]
- Nevis [Oct 4 8:24]
- St.Lucia [Oct 4 3:51]
- Vieques (PR) [Oct 1 17:58]
- Montserrat [Oct 1 16:29]
- Culebra (PR) [Sep 30 17:13]
- Barbuda [Sep 23 23:15]
- Turks & Caicos [Sep 23 6:49]
- St.Kitts [Sep 21 22:13]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 21 17:41]
- General Update [Sep 21 9:56]
- Guadeloupe [Sep 20 9:17]
- Martinique [Sep 19 13:12]
- Haiti [Sep 19 13:08]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 18 10:38]
- Bahamas [Sep 14 22:15]
- St.Barts [Sep 14 12:26]
- Curaçao [Sep 12 22:12]
- Florida Keys [Sep 10 11:20]
- Jamaica [Sep 9 8:46]
- Statia [Sep 9 4:47]
- Saba [Sep 7 1:00]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 5 21:46]
- Bermuda [Sep 2 6:30]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Aug 18 12:25]
- Mexico (incl. Cozumel & Cancun) [Aug 8 14:48]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



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The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert