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- ERIKA GONE
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 19:10:18 -0400
THE  EVENING IS  BACK OUR  QUIET CARIBBEAN  TYPICAL NIGHT  WITH THE TREE FROGS  FAMILIAR CHIRP .. ( although I  do not have  electricity and  am operating on a generator...) . and  we  are  so  thankful  we have been spared from serious damage but our hearts go out to our sister island to our south DOMINICA  for the unexpected  tragic loss of life and  damage they have suffered.  This was so unexpected and  teachers  us a  BIG LESSON  that YOU NEVER KNOW  what  "MOTHER NATURE" will do and  it is always better to  err on the side of  caution and  "over prepare".    

The hurricane season is NOT OVER YET so we  still have to be  on guard!   

Martha



- HUGE STORM
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 12:56:14 -0400
ERIKA  STRETCHES THRU MANY OF THE ISLANDS      we  are  Half Moon are still gettin  big blow -  not  wind that is breaking up  the house  but  trashing the garden!    POWER HAS BEEN off and on and  also internet.   We are not in the all clear yet  expecially here on the  south coast.   


11949380_10152996775895308_3972867064747341743_n

 



- Breeze
  • By Johnefuller <johnefuller at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 10:23:32 -0400

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Sent from my iPhone

- Erika
  • By Johnefuller <johnefuller at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 09:25:20 -0400

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Sent from my iPhone

- Passing of Erika
  • By Ronn D <ninklennor at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 07:20:23 -0400

This morning things are still pretty calm though overclouded on the north of the island.  The wind is prevalent but not overly strong.  Conditions look similar but with small showers as i look to the south. Even now one is moving across the area.

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- STORM ERIKA AT THIS LOCATION VERY SOON
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 05:58:04 -0400

Screen Shot 2015-08-27 at 5.53.40 AM

 



- Gusty but little rain
  • By Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 05:29:25 -0400
ERIKA's track is slightly more South, she is 30 miles SE of Antigua. Winds are 
around 20-25mph with slightly higher gusts, for the last few hours we have had 
little rain if any.

Alan Scholl



- OVER ANTIGUA NOW
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 05:24:34 -0400
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/satellite/antilles-guyane

Martha



- STORM ERIKA over ANTIGHA
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Aug 2015 05:21:53 -0400
..Early morning hello… ABS TV storm review which seems to have been on all night has just confirmed that at 2 .am. the storm was 70 miles from us and has slowed down.. it is very gusty at Half moon bay.. Will be checking the stats now.. Am thankful for every effort I have made to board up hearing that wind whipping…also electricity has gone off here from 4 a.m. Hope everyone safe and hope WE GET MORE RAIN!   Our Hon Samatha Marshall has just  stated publically that  people should  STAY HOME and NOT  report to work.     Wind has INCREASED to  50 MPH and will be around to late afternoon.  More  later...

Martha






















- 8 pm advisory out.. still confused !
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 20:18:56 -0400
We are  still on   Storm warning..  and our  airport was officially closed at   730 p.m.  ...   but  seems  EIRKA is  not the  strong woman  we thought thank goodness ..    ( but  we  do wish she would dump her  showers of blessing on us!  AND  MAYBE  SHE  WILL LATER..

FROM  WHAT  i have been told in my limited  "weather knowledge"   the  NHC  cant  go  back and forth from taking  on and off  TSW  to say it  is on now and off tomorrow..and there  are models that  show her  gaining strength agin  as she moves  north ..  GOSH FLORIDA must be on a big hype - watched a report on this and  as always the  TV  hypes it up  ( good for  ads! ??)    ( although speaking to some  Florida friends  it is  the  "new snow birds "  on hype and the  old timers  say .. " it will only be a  CAT ONE"...    But we can NEVER  take weather  with a  "grain of  salt"...   UNLESS THERE IS  ANYTHING  MAJOR TO REPORT DURING THE NIGHT THIS IS MY LAST  POST  UNTIL  "AFTER THE BLOW"...   BE SAFE MY ANTIGUA BUDDIES  AND  THANKS TO  THOSE ABROAD WHO CARE AND ARE FOLLOWING US..    AS my wise   southern mama always  said  "THIS TOO SHALL PASS"...  

   

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Martha



- 5 PM ERIKA REPORT
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 17:10:57 -0400
MUCH CONFUSION ON  ERIKA....  ( guess that is what  WEATHER IS ?) 
  SEEMS  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS  DID NOT FIND  STORM FORCE WINDS  ON LAST  INVEST...  BUT  THE  NHC  STILL HOLDING ON TO  IT BEING A TROPICAL STORM AND  WE ARE  STILL  ON  A STORM WARNING!    Am told our AIRPORT CLOSES at  730 p.m.  ( looking for  an official statement on this now)...
 
Sure is hard to know  what  is  really coming  at us... not that  I am complaining at  all  - but hope it is SOME RAIN!   .... and  even though i have  done  several days of "preparedness"  I  dont mind  as  it was  a good "drill"... My  hurricane shutters  - not used for  2 years  now..   had  lots of corrosion on them  so it was  a good thing to  clean them up !!  PLUS  did some  upgrades on some  bolts on doors  etc ...  so  this  was  not  a  bad "drill".  

Guess we will soon know if we  are  getting anything at  it is only  195 miles  due east!   



- 5 PM ERIKA REPORT
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 17:10:45 -0400
MUCH CONFUSION ON  ERIKA....  ( guess that is what  WEATHER IS ?) 
  SEEMS  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS  DID NOT FIND  STORM FORCE WINDS  ON LAST  INVEST...  BUT  THE  NHC  STILL HOLDING ON TO  IT BEING A TROPICAL STORM AND  WE ARE  STILL  ON  A STORM WARNING!    Am told our AIRPORT CLOSES at  730 p.m.  ( looking for  an official statement on this now)...
 
Sure is hard to know  what  is  really coming  at us... not that  I am complaining at  all  - but hope it is SOME RAIN!   .... and  even though i have  done  several days of "preparedness"  I  dont mind  as  it was  a good "drill"... My  hurricane shutters  - not used for  2 years  now..   had  lots of corrosion on them  so it was  a good thing to  clean them up !!  PLUS  did some  upgrades on some  bolts on doors  etc ...  so  this  was  not  a  bad "drill".  

Guess we will soon know if we  are  getting anything at  it is only  195 miles  due east!   



- COMING AT ANTIGUA NOW
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 15:56:33 -0400

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/satellite/antilles-guyane



Martha

















- Ended up being a nice day for boating, but what happens next?
  • By eli fuller <eliantigua at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 14:22:57 -0400

Our three power boats are out there today reporting nice conditions for snorkeling and sight seeing, but we've canceled tours for tomorrow expecting some action. However the latest loop shows her doing the same thing Danny did when it got close and things don't nearly as impressive as this am. We are ask desperate for rain here in drought torn Antigua. Hope windguru is right about the rainfall. We will see. Photos attached from today.

+1 268 725 7263
www.adventureantigua.com
www.twitter.com/antigua
www.instagram.com/p/dk-lKURFXI/

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- 11 AM UPDATE OF STORM ERIKA
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 12:06:51 -0400

   THE  11 A.M. ADVISORY IS IN  
SINCE THE  8  A.M  ADVISORY  STORM ERIKA  HAS  MOVED CLOSER TO US..  THE  PROJECTED CLOSEST POINT IS ONLY  8.3 MILES FROM OUR AIRPORT.
NOW  285 MILES  AWAY AND  MOVING AT  THE SAME  17  MPH   WHICH PUTS  HER   16 HOURS  AWAY  ( THE  CENTER..)  BUT  WE WILL GET  THE OUTTER WINDS LONG 
BEFORE..     THAT  STILL MAKES HER ARRIVING ( THE  CENTER )  AROUND   3  A.M.      I  DO NOT LIKE  NIGHT TIME STORMS!    but  guess i don't have  a  say in this.   

I HAVE  A  FEW MORE  THINGS TO  "SECURE" SO SIGNING OFF FOR NOW...   THANKS FOR  ALL WHO HAVE  SENT US MESSAGES OF  LOVE AND CONCERN.  

 



- STORM ERIKA WHen will we start to feel her effects
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 09:26:09 -0400
AS OF  8  a.m. 
        STORM ERIKA is  now  335 miles to the  East of Antigua 
   moving  280 degrees which is ONLY 10 degress right of west - almost direct at Antigua ( this puts the center 10 miles north of the airport ) 

Her  forward speed has  decreased  from  originally  20  mph to  18 mph   and now to  17  MPH ( as was forecast)  and  with her  slowing down  the  winds  can increase.  
As of the  8 a.m. advisory -  the latest one -  the winds are  back up to  45 MPH  with higher  gusts -  our Met office suggest  gusts  of  60 MPH ..  Still NOT  A HURRICANE thank goodness...  but that  can do some tree branch damage or  other  more  minor damage.  ( and as i learned in  Storm Danny  other "things " can happen like a lightening strike next to my  house that hit  an electricity pole which caught on fire and  cut my power!)  

ON the course  ERIKA now is  ( AND  remember that  can change)   that would put the  COC  ( center of circulation)  near  Antigua in 19 hours  ( from  8 a.m)  or     3  a.m   this morning.    However,  because this is such a large system we will start  feeling the  wind and rain effects hours before ...  Later this afternoon-  today  Wednesday - most  likely.    ANTIGUA  DESPERATELY NEEDS THE RAIN  so we are  thankful for  this ... but  there is  warning of  flooding in low lying areas.   
We are  very  lucky we are  NOT looking at  a HURRICANE but  still need to  take care and  take this storm seriously.  



Martha




- A GOOD POINT ON THE COMING STORM
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 07:36:16 -0400
ADVISE FROM  A WISE  WEATHER MAN  DAVE ON THE  STORMCARIB OPENING PG... IN CASE  SOME  DONT TAKE THE TIME TO READ THE  DETAILS...

As usual, these forecasts are not in stone as tropical systems have a mind of their own which is one reason why weather is an inexact science. If it were exact, there would be no need to project and forecast. We would know definitively. Its best to just be prepared, aware of your surroundings, and use common sense. 

Heavy rains and the subsequent flooding is expected to be a biggest issue with TS Erika. Unlike Danny, who never realized his potential as a rainmaker, TS Erika will dump 2-4 inches in many areas with higher amounts up to 6-8 in isolated spots. 

Martha



















- Erikas path
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 06:40:38 -0400
This is when the center will be nearest.  We will start to feel effects hours 
before 

JPEG image



Martha Watkins Gilkes
P.O. Box W1924
Antigua, West Indies
268 460 4423
Cell 2687647722
Sent from my  fab iPhone
Marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com


- LIAT flights cancelled
  • By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Aug 2015 05:52:22 -0400
Check their web site for more


http://www.liat.com/navSource.html?page_id=848


- THE BACK ROOM BOYS
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 21:05:53 -0400
WELL  WELL  WELL ..  THANK GOODNESS THOSE  OLD  "BACK ROOM BOYS"  HAVE NOT ALL DIED OFF..  I WAS  FEARFUL THEY HAD  WITH NO WORD FROM THE BACK ROOM FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS !!    THEY ARE 
  OF COURSE I WAS  A YOUNG CHICK BACK THEN AND THEY WERE ALREADY  ANCIENT!  
SO  GLAD THEY STILL  HAVE THE  ENGERY TO RAISE THIER  HEADS NOW!!!   
AS THIS WAS JUST POSTED!!  

The boys in the back room hate these wussy storms. All bark and no bite, rather 
fool around than fight
BOYS  KEEP YOUR  WITS  ABOUT YOU IN CASE  THIS  AINT  A WUSSY!!!    YOU MIGHT BE  CAUGHT OFF GUARD!! 


Martha



- STORM ERIKA LATEST
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 20:34:16 -0400

SHE  HAS  SHIFTED NEARER  US THAN LAST   CHECK..  BUT  STILL NOT  SO  STONG..  BUT  WE  NEED TO  KEEP MONITORING AS  THIS COULD  GAIN STRENGTH..   WE  CERTAINLY HOPE FOR   RAIN FALL..  


 



- Erika
  • By Johnefuller <johnefuller at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 19:26:30 -0400
The boys in the back room hate these wussy storms. All bark and no bite, rather 
fool around than fight

Sent from my iPhone

- STORM ERIKA 11 AM advisory
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 13:21:43 -0400
 

THE 11 a.m. is out and seems there is a bit more of north turn with the projection putting ERIKA to the north of Barbuda about 49 miles from the VC BIRD AIRPORT to the center of the storm ( that makes it about 62 miles away - to the center- for those on the South of Antigua) The storm force winds are expected to extend out 80 miles from the center. so that will give you an idea of what to feel. The speed is unsure yet but if she slows down it will be worse… The Hurricane Hunters fly her this afternoon so tonight we will have a much clearer picture of the wind speed, direction, barometric pressure, and other factors that alert us in advance on what to expect. BUT REMEMBER ALL OF THIS CAN CHANGE IN A SHORT TIME AS THESE SYSTEMS ARE dynamic and can wobble north or south and this changes the whole picture of which island gets hit. Best thing is to do all possible to be prepared sooner rather than later.

Martha



- TS Danny
  • By Steve Selim <steve.in.antigua at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 15:04:01 +0000

- THE BEAUTY OF A HURRICANE
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 10:55:36 -0400

PHOTO TAKEN INSIDE THE EYE OF HURRICANE  FABIAN WHEN I FLEW WITH THE  HURRICANE HUNTERS IN SEPTEMBER 2003.
SHOWS THE  BEAUTY OF A HURRICANE!  


- Martha on TV!
  • By Gert van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 07:47:41 -0700
Last Sunday our special hurricane correspondent Martha gave an interview on the Canadian CTV News Channel.

Here is a link to the interview:

Well done Martha!
Gert
--
Gert van Dijken
Caribbean Hurricane Network
http://stormcarib.com

- STORM ERIKA COMING OUR WAY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 10:30:20 -0400
WE ARE  WATCHING    AND  WILL SEE  IF THE  TRACK  GOES NORTH OR  STAYS  CLOSER TO ANTIGUA and BARBUDA.   The Hurricane hunters will fly  the  system later today and  we will have a much 
better idea  then.   



Screen Shot 2015-08-24 at 5.32.25 PM

 



Screen Shot 2015-08-24 at 8.26.50 PM

 



Screen Shot 2015-08-25 at 10.12.29 AM

 



- Erika named in 11 pm advisory
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 02:17:02 -0400
Here we go again.    This will happen quickly.  
Please Pay close attention.   Do anything needed to prepare early in case ! 

JPEG image



Martha Watkins Gilkes
P.O. Box W1924
Antigua, West Indies
268 460 4423
Cell 2687647722
Sent from my  fab iPhone
Marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com


- OUR NEXT SYSTEM ???
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 20:44:56 -0400

THEY  WONT  NAME IT YET!!  ( I UNDERSTAND.. THE  BIG BOYS HAVE TO BE SURE WITH 
DATA..  WE  "AMATURES"  CAN  SPECULATE
  BUT  I THINK IT IS  GOOD TO KNOW  WE HAVE SOMETHING ON TOP OF US SOON.. OR MAYBE NORTH OF 
US ??    JUST  BE AWARE..    
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
about 825 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become a little
better organized today, although satellite wind data today suggest
that the system has not yet developed a fully closed surface
circulation.  Recent reports from a NOAA buoy indicate that the low
is producing winds to tropical-storm-force, and only a small
increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical
storm as the system moves westward near 20 mph.  Interests in the
Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Additional information on this low can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
TAKEN FROM: 

Martha



- WILD IS THE WIND !
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 20:02:29 -0400
To learn more  about  the  world  famous..  the  elite  HURRICANE HUNTErS  CHECK OUT   

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2002/hurricane.pdf

Martha



- THE NEXT STORM
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 19:40:59 -0400

To those  watching on STORM CARIB!

IT IS  ALMOST  CERTAIN   what will be   ERICKA   WILL BE NAMED soon  by the  NAtional hurricane center  and will be on  THE  SAME  TRACK TO US AS  DANNY  but  a  BIGGER  STORM..   
we  do not know the  time line yet..      SO  Here we go again..    many of these  models  put  this  to the  NORTH of  ANtiuga  but it is early days.....  The  trick here is   this  system is only  950 miles to the east of  us and  clipping along at   20 plus MPH ( fast  )   so  she  may be upon  the islands quickly.       WE NEED TO  KEEP OUR  SHUTTERS  UP and  do even more   TO BE  READY FOR  A MORE MAJOR STORM.   THIS ONE IS BIGGER  AND  DANNY HAS ALREADY   TAKEN OUT THE  DRY AIR THAT  HELPED  break him up  so  Ericka may not give up so easy!!    Be Alert all!    we  may only have  a few days...   "storm tired"  Martha!  







Martha




- Antigua MET OFFICE Discontinues STROM WARNINGS
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 06:42:00 -0400
WE  ARE  OFF STORM WARNINGS  as  of the   5 a.m.  National Hurricane Center  according to the   MET OFFICE HOT LINE RECORDING  I just listened to.  This means  we will NOT  GET  ANY STORM FORCE WINDS  and  are  out of the  danger  zone.  Will have to check on when  airport reopens and  other  such services.   We have  NO  electricity here in the  South but  I find that odd as we have not had strong winds so hope it is restored soon.   
        We  do hope we  have some more  RAIN CLOUDS COMING.   ( and looking at the  radar it seems so...

 Meanwhile  we  now  need to watch what  is  behind  DANNY  so    I  am in  NO RUSH TO  REMOVE my  hurricane shutters!  
THANKS TO ALL WHO  WERE INTERESTED IN WHAT  WAS  HAPPENING IN OUR  LIVES HERE IN  ANTIGUA  AND   a special thanks to  GERT  OF  STORM CARIB for creating and maintaining this site   since  1996  so  we have  a place to report on all of this...  Please  consider  making  a small donation ( or  a large one!)  to  STORM CARIB..  there is a link on the  home page!  I mention this because I personally  want to see  STORM CARIB  STAY ON LINE.  am sure you agree if you are  one of the  regular readers.   I know Gert has personally financed much of this cause! 

Happy Monday  and  following week to all.   

Martha



- Storm over Antigua.
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 03:47:46 -0400
This link puts it in motion.   Below a still photo of it now 3:44 am.  Antigua is under the leading edge of the circle   Rain is off and on.  Not much wind. Thank goodness ! 



Martha Watkins Gilkes



- Coming at us now
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Aug 2015 01:02:12 -0400
1 am. 
http://www.barbadosweather.org/

Martha 

- DOUBTFUL DANNY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 21:11:31 -0400

DOUBTFUL DANNY

I AM DUBBING THIS system DOUBTFUL DANNY as this storm has jumped all over the place from being labeled a MAJOR HURRICANE (CAT 3) down to barely a Tropical Storm - he cant make up his mind what he is doing.. but for now he is maintaining Tropical Storm status.. not only has he interrupted our lives for several days, he called out the Hurricane Hunters for 3 days now ( at a big ticket price!) 

Even our Met office isn't sure what to make of DANNY ( just listened to the evening weather..) and they cant make a call yet to call off our Tropical Storm Warning and to declare tomorrow a normal working day. They say they want to wait on the 11 p.m. report..and they say DANNY - 210 miles off to our east - could still turn more NORTH or could TURN MORE SOUTH ????? go figure ?? 

WE KNOW DANNY has moisture surrounding the system so COME ON AND GIVE US SOME BADLY NEEDED RAIN!! 
Looking at the SAT photo and the mass of clouds dancing around I BELIEVE WE WILL GET RAIN in the wee hours 

We just had aired on our local TV a special "WEATHER WATCH" and coming from this was the following interesting points with Keithly Meades of MET OFFICE.  
*Danny is presently continuing the path towards the LEEWARDS west north west at 14 MPH 
*MAX sustained wind of 50 MPH but expecting 40 to 45 MPH winds but there are additional gusts up to 50 MPH ( not the type of wind that will remove a house roof...but can do tree and garden damage)  
*Center expected to pass south of Antigua during early morning ( but COULD wobble and come back north!) 
*EXPECT rain and thunderstorms - 1 to 4 inches expected (hoping to get as much as Danny will give ) between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. ( this could lead to flash flooding in low lying areas so be aware) 
*For the next few hours conditions will continue to be cloudy and the leading edge will come on us around 2 a.m. and the rest of the mass of clouds that comes after the leading edges will have showers and embedded thunderstorms 
*DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND SHEER is keeping Danny weaker 
* Being a SMALL system is can increase or decrease quickly
* STORMS and SYSTEMS and Hurrianes DO NOT TRAVEL in a straight line.. They can wobble up to 50 miles one way or the other so it can move back and forth as has been the case with Danny.  
* Barbuda is further away and SHOULD PREPARE but is more out of the line at this point 
* Storm force winds extend out 60 miles so depending on where DANNY finally passes we may or may not get the storm winds  
* Discussion on:  
WE had a storm that started as normal... went to CAT 3 MAJOR hurricane and then quickly dropped to a Tropical storm.  
DUE TO SHEER.. SHEER is a difference of wind speed between the levels of wind ( the different layers of wind) At the upper levels there is 20 to 30 knots. ANY HURRICANE needs a good upper level out flow of winds and if there is sheer of the winds ( which is caused by El Nino- strong upper level winds - this helps keep the storms from developing.  
AND finally  
IF YOU ARE GOING TO PREPARE PREPARE FOR THE WORST  
Hope relating these bullet points help someone!! 

Have a good night and stay safe.. at least we are not facing something like a CAT 4 LUIS STORM and we know we will wake up with electricity and services still in tact ! It has been a GOOD WAKE UP for us all to "practice" our being prepared! 













- STORM DANNY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 18:44:22 -0400

I  STILL BELIEVE  looking at the  mass of clouds coming our way that  we  are   going to get  some  RAIN!!   am keeping the  faith with  that. 



http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E+HURRICANE&info=ir&lat=16&lon=-40&width=1000&height=300&type=Animation&palette=spect.pal&mapcolor=red&zoom=4

Martha



- 5 PM UPDATE STORM DANNY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 17:58:37 -0400
IT IS VERY CONFUSING  AS ANTIGUA  IS  STILL ON A  STORM WARNING BUT YET THE   5 P.M.  SHOWS  THIS:

DANNY IS NOW   SHOWN AS BEING  79  MILES  AWAY  AS OF  TOMORROW ( MONDAY)  WHEN IT IS IN OUR  AREA...  AS THERE  WAS  A TURN TO THE  SOUTH  SO WE  MAY NOT  EVEN GET 
RAIN  WE HOPED FOR.  






Martha


- STORM DANNY APPROACHING ANTIGUA
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 13:29:30 -0400
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Martha



- Storm Danny interview with Canadian TV station
  • By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 11:29:25 -0400

Attachment: New Recording 2.m4a (fixed version)
Description: audio/m4a



Martha Watkins Gilkes



- STORM DANNY 11 a.m on SUNDAY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 10:55:16 -0400
11 a.m  today  SUNDAY  news  even better for  Antigua as  Danny  is staying SOUTH and  is now  expected to be   43 miles from our  International Airport  when the  center  is passing us  ( for those of us who live in the  south -  14 miles from the airport  that  puts  the  storm  within  about  30 miles of us and  the  storm winds  extend out  60  MILES  so we  will still get  some  storm force winds... and hopefully some RAIN.   But  it seems  it wont be  nearly the  "bad weather"  event  it  could be.   Lets hope  Danny  does not  gain strength and  bring harm to  islands   north of us. 
      So we  are   now looking at  an area of concern about to come off the  African coast  that   already has   40% chance to  develop into a  major hurricane!    It is the height of  hurricane season!


Martha

















- DANNY 5 a.m Sunday morning
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 05:15:28 -0400
The West track continued  between  2 am and  5  am and  now puts  Danny's center   a bit more to the  south of  Antigua as  shown in this track...  with winds at 50 MPH which is a Tropical Storm and not a hurricane, thank goodness. 
But they are  saying  RAIN  so that is  exactly what  we  were hoping for...  we still have  about  30 hours to wait  for the  passing of the center but will start getting  the  rain and the  tropical winds long before... My big metal hurriane shutters going up  in  a few hours  to BE READY!   and as always   THINGS  CAN CHANGE to monitoring  is the key  to know what  is going on.  Happy the  Hunters will fly it  again soon for more accurate info....  Lots to do today.. so will get  going  very soon!  KEEP SAFE all in the  storms path.  

Martha


















- DANNY 2 a.m. report
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2015 04:50:33 -0400
As I feared last night when i read about  the ridge of high pressure to the north of the system that  was  going to possibly  drive it due west... which  seems to have happened  as shown here.  My last posting had
the system to the NORTH of  Antigua... Now  it seems  ( AS OF  2 AM)  it will be  SOUTH of ANTIGUA  as shown here.    My house is just below FREETOWN on the map...  on the sea... so this will be  right over  us on the  south of the
island.   We still have  some time to go so  there may be  ANOTHER  CHANGE.   That  is  how it goes with these systems and  why  we  have to  be prepared as  things can change in a hurry.   The winds have died down somewhat but we still have to  watch it!  HOPEFULLY THE  VERY NEEDED RAIN WILL COME.   STANDING BY... 






Martha



- 5 p.m. PROJECTED TRACK of DANNY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 16:56:45 -0400
THIS  is looking  better for  Antigua  as  this puts the eye of  DANNY 24 miles away on MONDAY around NOON  IF  IT  STAYS ON THIS TRACK.
The thing about  these  storms is   NOTHING  IS WRITTEN IN STONE...  but this is looking  better as  far as wind damage is concerned..
We  DO HOPE FOR  RAIN however!!  STILL STANDING  BY 



 

Screen Shot 2015-08-22 at 4.49.07 PM

 



- THE CREATOR OF STORM CARIB
  • By marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 15:41:37 -0400
SORRY  TO BE POSTING A  "NON- HURRICANE " post  BUT  THIS  IS  THE  CREATOR OF STORM CARIB    ---    GERT --- WHEN I WAS  FORTUNATE TO MEET HIM   SOME YEARS  AGO in San Francisco  WITH HIS  2 YOUNG TWINS!  
 Gert has put his  heart and  soul  AND  MONEY  into  keeping  STORMCARIB   going  for years now to  INFORM those who  want to know about their  families and  friends in the  islands during  a hurricane..   WITHOUT THIS  THERE IS  NO  INFO  on what is happening in the islands!  Those of us  who report are  volunteers and  are  happy to  help keep the information  flowing!      I WOULD LIKE TO  APPEAL TO THOSE  WHO ARE  FOLLOWING  TO CONSIDER  A DONATION TO  THE CAUSE.    THERE IS A LINK ON THE MAIN PAGE...   IT SURE  IS FOR A  GOOD CAUSE!   

TO  HURRICANE REPORTING!
Martha   


  




- HURRICANES HUNTER PLAN OF TODAY
  • By Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 14:52:14 -0400


 




 

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 221627
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT SAT 22 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-088

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE DANNY
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 23/2000Z                    A. 23/2330Z
       B. NOAA3 0504A DANNY           B. AFXXX 0604A DANNY
       C. 23/1800Z                    C. 23/2130Z
       D. 16.4N 57.7                  D. 16.6N 58.7W
       E. 23/1930Z TO 23/2300Z        E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0300Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000FT             F. SFC TO 15,000FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43        FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 73
       A. 24/0800Z                    A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA3 0704A DANNY           B. AFXXX 0804A DANNY
       C. 24/0600Z                    C. 24/1020Z
       D. 16.9N 60.0W                 D. 17.2N 61.3
       E. 24/0730Z TO 24/1000Z        E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000FT             F. SFC TO 15,000FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
    3. REMARKS: NOAA'S G-IV WILL DO A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
       DANNY AT 23/1530Z.
       NASA'S DC-8 WILL DEPART KFLL 23/1100Z FOR A 6 HR RESEARCH
       MISSION AROUND DANNY. FLIGHT LEVEL 35,000FT. NO DROPS. 

Martha



- HURRICANE DANNY 11 AM ADVISORY JUST OUT
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 11:10:33 -0400

DANNY IS  NOW A  CAT 2  HURRICANE WITH  WINDS AT  90 MPH ( DROPPED FROM  100 MPH FROM 5 A.M ) 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...
  IT IS  ALSO  CLOSER  TO US 
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 52.0W
ABOUT 660 MI.. E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW  12 MPH   (  GOING A  BIT  FASTER NOW...WAS   10  MPH  AT   5  A.M. ...
OUR   Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a tropical storm
watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla.   THIS   means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

THEY KEEP TALKING ABOUT IT  GETTING WEAKER AS IT  KEEPS APPROACHING... WHICH WE  HOPE will be the  case.  
Watching   -  waiting  and   doing  hurricane preparedness.... 

IT is  a  beautiful  day here  now  but  very  still and   HOT  even on the  EAST COAST at  Half Moon Bay! 


Martha



- FLIGHTS BEING CANCELLED in and out of Antigua
  • From: Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 07:53:18 -0400
LIAT  will  stop flights  into and out of  Antigua from  2 p.m  TOMORROW  SUNDAY..     this is on their web site..  
Am sure  the  International airlines will also be canceled   ...  check with the specific airline for more...

We will hope  as soon as the  storm passes  we will be back to   normal as  quickly as possible.. 

TODAY IS A  BUSY DAY FOR US  IN THE ISLANDS with HURRICANE  preparation .... 




Hurricane Danny – Advisory # 2
 
ISSUED AT 5:30PM – AUGUST 21, 2015

 

ST. JOHN’S, Antigua – LIAT wishes to advise that due to the impending passage of Hurricane Danny, it has been forced to cancel the following services for Sunday, August 23, Monday, August 24 and Tuesday, August 25:


Martha



- Danny. Closest point today Saturday
  • From: Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 05:01:06 -0400

PNG image



Martha Watkins Gilkes
P.O. Box W1924
Antigua, West Indies
268 460 4423
Cell 2687647722
Sent from my  fab iPhone
Marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com


- Danny creeping north
  • From: Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2015 04:51:29 -0400
Hurricane DANNY (click for details)
As of 0500 AM AST Sat Aug 22 (Advisory # 16)
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale: Category 2
Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 knots; 100 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb
Located at: 15.2N 50.8W
Movement: west-northwest at 9 knots; 10 mph


- 5 P.M. FRIDAY HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 18:34:28 -0400


     IN  72  HOURS  ON  AUGUST  24TH   THE PROJECTED  CLOSEST POINT TO  ANTIGUA  IS   SHOWN  HERE..  WE ARE   17.1  N  AND  61.8 
THEY ARE  PROJECTING  IT  TO BE   A  TROPICAL  STORM AT   65 MPH HERE..  THAT  IS GOOD NEWS..  HOPEFULLY WITH LOTS OF  RAIN FOR OUR ISLAND    
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  21/2100Z 14.5N  49.1W  100 KT 115 MPH  CAT-3
 12H  22/0600Z 15.0N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH  CAT-2
 24H  22/1800Z 15.5N  52.7W   85 KT 100 MPH  CAT-2
 36H  23/0600Z 15.9N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH  CAT-1
 48H  23/1800Z 16.3N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
 72H  24/1800Z 17.5N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH  TS




THIS IS  FROM THE   5 P.M   NHC   ...   IT  HAS MOVED  THE SYSTEM  SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF US   NOW  13 MILES AWAY 

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.3N, 61.7W or about 13.0 miles (21.0 km)from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 18 hours and 45 minutes from now (Monday, August 24 at 1:06PM AST).




Martha



- STUNNING DANNY PHOTO FROM SPACE STATION
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 17:42:24 -0400
I HAVE TO SAY THIS IS A  STUNNING PHOTO and  beautiful.. even  if it is  barreling down on top of me!!  

NASA Astronaut Scott Kelly took this picture of Hurricane Danny on Aug. 20 at 6 a.m. EDT from aboard the International Space Station. Credit: NASA


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-08-nasa-diminutive-hurricane-danny-space.html#jCp






Martha

Martha Watkins Gilkes


- HURRICANE DANNY
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 17:23:59 -0400
THIS LINK HAS  SOME  GOOD   clips of the  forward motion... 


http://www.caribbean360.com/news/hurricane-danny-a-bit-stronger-but-expected-to-lose-punch-by-the-weekend

Martha



- INTERVIEW ON THE HURRICANE WITH CTV NEWS IN TORONTO
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 16:22:19 -0400
Was contacted by  a  chase producer with CTV News Channel in Toronto, Canada;  24-hour news network broadcasting nationally across Canada.
Will do  an  interview  with them on SUNDAY MORNING  at  11:10 A.m.   so if you are   CANADA BASED   and  around  do tune in...


Martha



- Hurricane Danny
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 16:19:18 -0400
Antigua is  taking  the  Hurricane  serious with lots of  preparations   especially as   last October Hurricane GONZALO TOOK US ALL BY SURPRISE. The APUA ( Electricity) is  going all over the island trimming  trees overhanging electrical lines.   I have  reported a big tree on the main Half Moon Road  that overhangs the main lines coming to Half Moon in the  hope they will  deal with that..  THEY ASK  ANYONE WHO SEES  OVERHANGING BRANCHES call  311.  

Meanwhile,  DANNY  HAS  BECOME  A MAJOR STORM  - as of   2 p.m.   A  CAT  3   (am sure  most of you are  following this)  -  based on info from a NOAA Aircraft that just flew the system   but  it was  expected  that it  would  gain  strength..   They do expect it to weaken again by Sunday.  so lets hope they are  right  THAT IT WILL DROP  BACK as it nears the islands...  The next days will tell.   

The "Closet point"  Tool on    www.stormcarib.com     now  put   Hurricane  Danny    only  3.9 MILES  over  us!    

Results for Antigua (17.12N, 61.78W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.1N, 61.8W or about 3.9 miles (6.2 km)from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 21 hours and 24 minutes from now (Monday, August 24 at 12:36PM 



IF YOU WANT  TO  FOLLOW THE  HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES  GOING INTO HURRICANE DANNY   first  check out  their  PLAN OF THE  DAY to learn  the times they are  flying     (  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/recon/MIAREPRPD)

Then  Click on     

THEN    CHECK THE  CHOICE   NON TASKED MISSION ( DANNY)
    THEN  CHECK  ALL THE  SMALL BOXES  ON THE BOTTOM OF THE  SCREEN   AND YOU WILL SEE  WHERE  THE FLIGHT IS...


THIS IS  THE PRESENT  PLAN OF THE  DAY  

NOUS42 KNHC 211555
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT FRI 21 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-087

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE DANNY
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 43
       A. 22/2000Z                    A. 22/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 0104A DANNY           B. NOAA3 0204A DANNY
       C. 22/1630Z                    C. 22/1800Z
       D. 15.4N 53.4W                 D. 15.4N 53.4W
       E. 22/1900Z TO 22/2100Z        E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000FT             F. SFC TO 15,000FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43        FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 74
       A. 23/0800Z                    A. 23/1200Z
       B. NOAA3 0304A DANNY           B. AFXXX 0404A DANNY
       C. 23/0600Z                    C. 23/0645Z
       D. 15.8N 55.2W                 D. 16.0N 56.4W
       E. 23/0800Z TO 23/1200Z        E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000FT             F. SFC TO 15,000FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
       ANOTHER P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR FLIGHT AT 23/1800Z.
   
 3. REMARKS: NOAA'S G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS AROUND
       DANNY AT 22/1730Z AND 23/1730Z. 
       

THANKS TO  THOSE  WHO ARE  SENDING  GOOD WISHES !  


Martha



- FOLLOW LIVE DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 14:18:33 -0400
CHECK OUT THIS LINK FOR MORE  INFO ON HURRICANE  DANNY   LIVE>...


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Martha



- FOLLOWING THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REAL TIME
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 12:50:18 -0400

IF YOU WANT  TO  FOLLOW THE  HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE  GOING INTO HURRICANE DANNY  RIGHT NOW  CLICK  THE  LINK BELOW..
THEN    CHECK THE  CHOICE    CHECK NON TASKED MISSION ( DANNY)
    THEN  CHECK  ALL THE  SMALL BOXES  ON THE BOTTOM OF THE  SCREEN   AND YOU WILL SEE  WHERE  THE FLIGHT IS...

WE WILL SOON KNOW MUCH MORE ON HOW STRONG THIS  HURRICANE IS  AT THIS  TIME AND POINT.  


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=google_earth_plugin

Martha



- HURRICANE HUNTERS going into Hurricane Danny
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 10:23:17 -0400

Just  learned a bit more about the plans for the Hurricane Hunters.. they will be flying  an  Alpha pattern at  least 2 times thru the eye as they gather weather reading.  These reading are used to  help protect coastal areas with more accurate information of the  speed and direction and other data that helps those on land know what is coming.  They fly at  10,000 feet ( sometimes down to  5,000 feet if the  system is weaker.  They are limited to  fly starting at  55 degress  due to  fuel supply. (as shown below the hurricane is at 47.4 so has to get  closer to fly it)    As I post this  10 a.m. Friday  the hurricane is 985 miles east of  the leewards  

This is of  5  a.m  AST Friday morning 


Location: 13.7°N 47.4°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

An  article  about this.....

http://www.caribbean360.com/news/hurricane-hunter-sent-to-barbados-to-gather-information-about-tropical-storm-danny

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201602
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 20 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-086

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON
       HURRICANE DANNY AT 22/2000Z NEAR 15.4N 52.7W AND AT
       23/1200Z NEAR 16.0N 56.4W.
    3. REMARKS: P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY
       EVERY 12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z. NOAA'S P-3
       AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS AROUND DANN


Martha













- HURRICANE DANNY How close is it coming to Antigua
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 09:42:22 -0400
USING THIS  COOL  TOOL ON   THE  STORM CARIB SITE    (www.stormcarib.com)   we  can  project  how close  Hurricane  Danny will come to us. (each island can do this by changing the settings)    This shows  DANNY 10 miles  away at its closest point...  
or nearly  RIGHT  OVER US!  AND TO THE  SOUTH.  IF IT STAYS AT THE PRESENT  SPEED IT IS MOVING  IT WILL BE HERE  MONDAY AROUND  11 A.M... BUT IT COULD   SLOW DOWN.. OR  GAIN SPEED.  THE  HURRICANE  GAINED STRENGTH OVERNIGHT TO  85  MILES PER HOUR..  THERE ARE  SOME  intensity models that  suggest that  Danny will have some wind shear over the next couple of days which may cause the wind to drop.  This hurricane is  a tough one to predict and only time will tell.  As this is a SMALL HURRICANES  ( as hurricanes go..) it makes it susceptible to sudden changes in intensity  and thus more difficult to predict.   so the best  thing for  people to do is to  be prepared FOR THE WORST.      Also the HURRICANE  HUNTER will be flying the  storm out of Barbados later today  so that is  good as the info they  gather  is MUCH MORE  ACCURATE than  anything we  get  from satellite.   So  we will have a more accurate picture of what we are  facing   later  today.  


    

Martha


- Overcast and rain
  • From: "scholla candw.ag" <scholla at candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 08:05:08 -0400 (EDT)
Quiet day but very overcast and a few sprinkles so far.
Hurricane DANNY's wind speed is forecasted to be reduced to a Tropical Storm by the time it passes through the Leewards.
We are all hoping for some rain but it is a small foot print so we shall see.

Alan

- ANTIGUA GETTING READY FOR DANNY
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 07:34:38 -0400
GOOD MORNING  FROM  ANTIGUA to all who are  following  us  here on the island....   we  are  all  watching  DANNY and  there is much on our  radio and  TV to  GET READY.  Last year  we were  caught  with a  surprise storm  (Gonzoles)  that  did a  lot of damage and  sank boats etc because we  were told it was  just  a  little storm  so this is making  many  take notice. 
I will certainly  put up  all HURRICANE SHUTTERS  by  Sunday afternoon.   Also our Antigua Public Utility Company is making calls for people to report any overhanging trees  as  they are  doing a big  prune job  to get ready for the  storm..  so  Antigua is  getting prepared..a good thing...  
  There is some talk that DANNY  will lose some  force as  it nears the islands which would be  good as  the damage from the  wind would not be as  bad and hopefully we  will get  VERY NEEDED  RAIN.     I have been reporting on these  storm since  GERT LAUNCHED  this wonderful  STORM CARIB SITE after the terrible Hurricane LUIS in  1995  and   people  living overseas  were desperate to learn what had happened  on their islands.   Gert has provided a  BIG SERVICE to all of us in the  Leewards and  Windwards..  THANK YOU  SIR!!!  

MORE TO COME...  

Martha



- Morning Shower and Gonzalo Update.
  • From: Maleek Joseph <maleek1998 at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Aug 2015 07:04:30 -0400
Hurricane Dany strengthened a bit this morning.

The 5 AM Local time details are as follows:

LOCATION: 13.7N 47.4W

ABOUT 985 MI (1590 KM) ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH (140 KM/H)

PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW AT 10 MPH (17 KM/H)

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 MB (29.15 INCHES)

Based on the latest track and information, Danny is expected to pass near Antigua and Barbuda on Monday. Watches and Warnings may be required within 24 to 48 hours and residents are being asked to be prepared to act if necessary.


Meanwhile, low level convergence and high moisture levels caused cloudy skies and a few heavy downpours in Antigua overnight and this morning. Showers are still possible, mainly this morning; Partly cloudy conditions are expected thereafter.

I will post and update on Danny later today; if time permits, until then, I am Khalil Joseph reporting.

- FLYING INTO THE EYE OF A HURRICANE
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 13:56:56 -0400

CHECK out my  "FLIGHT ON THE WILD SIDE".. flying into a CAT  4  Hurricane with the  Hurricane Hunters...
Sure gave me a  "BIRDS EYE VIEW"  of  a hurricane.  




- HURRICANE DANNY FROM SPACE
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 13:19:03 -0400


 



- MORE ON DANNY
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 13:18:31 -0400
Danny is now a hurricane....This was expected, as the system is moving through a favorable environment and will continue to do so for the next day or so.
Danny is still forecast to run headlong into a wall of wind shear closer to the islands, and this should cause a weakening of the system according to the forecast........How much is unknown, but the official forecast suggests that Danny will still be a hurricane when it passes very near to us on Monday morning.
Important to note that Danny is an unusually small cyclone, and the hurricane force winds only extend out about 10 miles from the center, so small deviations in track could make a huge difference in conditions over the affected areas.
Steve Coghlan's photo.

Martha















- AN IMPRESSIVE PHOTO OF HURRICANE DANNY FROM SPACE Just Taken
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 12:48:23 -0400
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CM3KyxOU8AAeDee.jpg:large

Martha



- HURRICANE HUNTERS TO BEGIN FLYING HURRICANE DANNY
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 11:05:29 -0400

THIS IS THE  offical plan for the  HURRICANE HUNTERS to  fly   Hurricane  Danny  which will give  MUCH more  accurate info on the  system than  what  we  can get  from satellite.  So when   Danny gets near  14.8 N  they will fly  into it..  It is now 12.5 N


Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 191426
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 19 AUGUST 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2015
         TCPOD NUMBER.....15-085

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: 
       A. FIX TROPICAL STORM DANNY NEAR 14.8N 53.0W AT 22/2000Z.
       B. P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO DANNY EVERY
          12 HOURS BEGINNING AT 22/1800Z.
    4. REMARKS: NOAA'S P-3 AND G-IV WILL DO RESEARCH MISSIONS
       AROUND DANNY AT 21/1300Z AND 21/1730Z RESPECTIVELY


Martha


- HURRICANE DANNY
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015 10:50:26 -0400
11 A.M.  ADVISORY     NOW HAVE  HURRICANE  DANNY  COMING  TOWARDS THE ISLANDS..    SHOULD BE  IN  THE ISLANDS  AROUND MONDAY..   TOO EARLY TO TELL  IF IT WILL HIT  THE  WINDWARDS  OR THE LEEWARDS. 

Martha



- WATCHING THIS TRACK CAREFULLY !
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Aug 2015 13:55:03 -0400


hurrevac-danny1.jpg

- ANTIGUA WATCHING
  • From: Martha Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Aug 2015 13:19:17 -0400
FOR THE  FIRST TIME  since  start of hurricane season  we  have  something  TO WATCH OUT THERE..   COULD IT  BECOME  DANNY ?   it is just a tropical wave in the  central Atlantic at  this point  butt hey are  saying it has  40%  chance to develop over the next   4 days...   Gert  is also   talking about it  on the  STORM CARIB  HOME PAGE!     WE  SURE NEED  RAIN ON  OUR PARCHED ISLAND AS  DO MANY ISLANDS  AROUND..  SO  MAYBE  IT WILL BRING THAT  AT THE VERY LEAST!    WE WILL BE  WATCHING ..    I am going to be sure  my shutters are   still working as  it has been  a long time since we  had to  use them!!      BETTER TO BE  PREPARED!! 



Martha



- HOPEFULLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR ANTIGUA & BARBUDA
  • From: Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at me.com>
  • Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2015 17:36:35 -0400

WE have BEEN in  a  very  bad  DROUGHT for  several months now and  are   hoping for  some  badly needed  rain for our poached island.    This  patch  which  has  developed  of  the  Cape Verde Islands
may hopefully bring  some needed rain.   We will  be  watching. 
Meanwhile our  big  Carnival celebration is  in full  swing with the big days  being  Monday and  Tuesday. 


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is located a
few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This
disturbance continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development is possible into early
next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent


Martha



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