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- Fantastic 45th Independence Celebratory Weather so far!
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 4 Nov 2023 05:32:01 -0400
Well, thanks be to God the weather over the last few days has been just perfectly clement & Tropically Paradisiac. Today's Independence Celebrations: spanning from the 3rd of November (our 45th anniversary) which extends into the 4th of November -(our Community Day of Service) have been quite splendid and largely spared the sprinkling from any Liquid gold. The timing has been well suited thus far, however more voluminous amounts of the wet stuff is expected later in the day on Saturday.

It has indeed been a welcome respite after receiving multiple inches of rain courtesy of the storm parade from Philippe, to Tammy and the troughs et Al. -thankfully we have had just the right blend of perfectly Sunny days balanced with rain kissed nights. 

Really just the right mix of rain and sun allowed many sensational Cultural shows and Bouyon extravaganzas- Post World Creole Music festival- to go on without a hitch. 
& the right blend of liquid gold and Brilliant Sunshine at this time of the year is indeed a huge and providential advantage in light of the countless outdoor Creole and Independence Festivals being held, which included the National Youth Rally, Cultural Galas and the National Parade of Uniformed groups on the 3rd of November. 

Stay safe everyone as this Year's Independence Season wraps up. And a Happy 45th Independence Anniversary to All! 🇩🇲

& May God Bless us All!

- Saturday
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 28 Oct 2023 12:47:02 -0500
Today, is another overcast day!  We could do with some sunshine  for our Creole festival!

The weather is still looking messy.  The rain is just starting  

I hope everyone makes the best of the day. 

- Tropical Wave
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:18:38 -0500
It is Creole festival hero in Dominica!  Creole day today  

Unfortunately the weather has been overcast.  Chilly and quite a bit of rain!!

A bit sad...

Let's hope the weather picks up tomorrow.   As it is party time

Everyone enjoy.

- Sunshine
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2023 09:51:41 -0500
Today in Dominica we have calm and sunshine.   Yesterday we saw several friends, everyone was Happy  and so relieved that Tammy left us more or less alone!

We are monitoring the weather.  Hopefully, we will  not have anything significant weatherwise now and it is so close to the end of the hurricane season.  Fingers crossed. 

Everyone have a happy day. 

- Hurricane Tammy
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2023 09:45:29 -0500
Tammy is one strange, unfathomable, hurricane, storm,  weather system.  In all the years since living in the Caribbean since 1989, we have never experienced anything like Tammy. 

To say it has been and is like a living nightmare is an understatement!  Can you believe it, Tammy is still hanging around!

We were under hurricane watch until 11.00 a.m. yesterday morning!  On Saturday night we were prepared for hurricane Tammy.   All night we were expecting the worst.  We had a little rain!  Honestly,  it has been very stressful.   

What on earth has caused this weather system so late in the hurricane season?  Is this going to be the norm now?  Is it global warming?

We.are looking at another weather system following Tammy. 

We feel for all our sister islands.

At the moment we have no electricity.  We just got the internet back so have not got any information on our sister Islands.   We hope Tammy has not caused too much damage.

We will report to you tomorrow. 

- Tammy
  • By Peter Dick <silverware1 at silverware.co.uk>
  • Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2023 14:42:04 -0400
I'm in Picard, north west of the island, just below the town of Portsmouth, 

TS Tammy was upgraded to Category 1 hurricane Friday afternoon.  It was at its 
nearest about 3am Saturday, about 60 miles to the east of Dominica. 

I could summarise the passing of Tammy in one word: "underwhelming"!

I operate a Government supplied rain gauge, taking a reading every morning at 
7am. Tammy produced about 13mm of rain aka 1/2 inch. Contrast this with TS 
Philippe earlier this month which produced 255mm of rain aka ten inches. 

(This was a new Balvine record, the most on over twenty years of daily 
recordings. )

I doubt if the wind speed was more than 25 miles per hour. All the trees still 
have all their leaves. 

Domlec electricity went off for a few hours... only effecting a small part of 

Peter Dick. 

- Tammy's Tail...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2023 10:16:28 -0400

Well, so far so good, thank God. The light rains have abated here on the West coast of Dominica, and the sun actually peaked out earlier this morning. Thank God the center and Western most quadrant of Hurricane Tammy has remained well to our East. Some parts of Our East coast have felt more of Tammy's touch though with minor impacts from Rough seas and the like along with some squalls.

On the other hand our West coast has been Very Tranquil overall- at least thus far. As Tammy continues to move more north of our area the Tail of Hurricane Tammy is certain to bring some showery periods along with the occasional squall. Let us not let down our guard completely folks. Indeed, Precaution is always better than cure.

& Do continue to stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Tricky Tammy...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2023 02:46:49 -0400
Tricky Tammy...
Well it definitely seems like we have been enjoying the proverbial calm before the Storm... Of course, this is largely due to the fact that we are on the Weaker, western quadrant of the storm as is the case with Martinique. Guadeloupe though may face a different story when Hurricane Tammy gets a bit more north of us -moving over the french archipelago. Hopefully, Tammy does not get much Closer to us here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica than it already is.

Thus far it looks like a bit of a wobbling has occured during the Last few hours, but generally the storm appears to be going more north of due West which is fantastic and thankfully is more in keeping with the model guidance on Hurricane Tammy. So far there continues to be occasional moderate to light showers, along with light winds, but nothing worrying at all up to this point, thank God. Fingers crossed... (No one wants 'terrible Tammy').

As Tammy makes it closest approach... We're truly Praying and hoping for the best especially since it has strengthened a bit. Indeed, the "Lesser Antilles rule" which favours further intensification of Tropical systems once they are near, at, or past 55W is certainly working in Tammy's favour, in addition to very warm sea water temperatures resulting in some further strengthening. Praying and hoping that it does Not result in any Rapid intensification with Tammy.

Stay safe folks.
God Bless!

- Tammy's Toying with us...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 20 Oct 2023 21:14:58 -0400
Well, we're watching somewhat anxiously here from the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica as Tammy trifles & toys with her forward speed. So far only light to Moderate showers on our end to report. It appears that Tammy has made a bit of a Westward jog on satellite and radar imagery.  We'll see as the night progresses.

We expect to start getting some squalls within the next hour or so. Martinique looks like they are starting to get a bit more of the storm's feeder bands at this time before we do. So far so good wind and rain wise on the West Coast...

- Tammy's teasing...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2023 23:59:51 -0400
I suppose Tammy is teasing us a bit with some very light winds & precipitation, at least for now... The worst of the weather should begin by midday or a little before on Friday God's Willing. Actually, it's already been raining a while out there.

 Although it's mostly light showers for the moment across most of the Nature island, yet some areas in the North East of the island reportedly got a bit more shower activity earlier today.

Some have posted about staying indoors all day tomorrow; although officially there is work, however, schools will be closed as a precautionary measure. It's probably a good call to avoid commuting to work tomorrow God's Willing especially in the typical flood prone zones. 

The weather is likely to grow increasingly inclement as the morning progresses given the anticipated deterioration of weather conditions as forecast -with the center of Tropical Storm Tammy expected to pass just to our North near Guadeloupe. Hoping & Praying that it will not be at Hurricane strength then which is quite possible.

Stay safe & Do have a Blessed night's rest folks. Tomorrow may be a Long day...

- Troublesome Tammy...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 17:50:55 -0400
Tropical Storm Tammy makes her Tropical debut as was long expected- triggering watches for various Islands...
Well, after the rude awakening from the Passage of Tropical Storm Philippe- it's good to see that a pro-active approach Re: the issuance of watches by the respective Government authorities has occured. By tomorrow we'll surely have a better idea of the likely strength of Tropical Storm Tammy as it is anticipated to pass near enough to the Nature Island/ Dominica area by Friday into Saturday.

Stay safe folks.
God Bless!

- Tracking Pre-Tammy...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 14:11:03 -0400
Pre- Tammy looks like it may have a similar analog track to Tomas of 2010. The Lesser Antilles islands need to be prepared for some potential Cyclonic impacts this weekend.

Stay alert and be Vigilant folks.
God Bless!

- Philippe's providence...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Oct 2023 10:31:25 -0400
Just a quick update Re: Philippe. Praise God daylight has revealed No major areas of damage islandwide although some light to moderate showers continue relentlessly. 

It has been raining non-stop now for more than 16hrs. This is definitely one of the wetter Tropical systems to affect the Nature Island of the Caribbean in recent memory. 

Overnight there were impacts islandwide and notably along the West coast in Dominica where I'm situated. However, everyone is ever so mindful and grateful to God that things did Not turn out to be much worse.

Much prayers went on through the night and the current favourable and incredible outcome of the aftermath given last night's moisture onslaught is truly nothing short of Miraculous. God is Good all the time. Thank you Jesus!

Of course, Islanders remain Vigilant and the rainfall continues apace. Thankfully again it's not anywhere as heavy so far- compared to yesterday especially into last night. 

Also, our River & ravine water levels have greatly subsided. To God be All the Glory & most notably there were no impacts anywhere near that of Erika (2015) or Maria (2017). The entire nation collectively breathes a grateful sigh of relief. 

Thoughts and Prayers go out to the other islands being affected currently.

Take good care.
God Bless!

- Philippe's Pounding
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Oct 2023 00:28:37 -0400

Tropical storm Philippe has been pouring on top of us for the last few hours. Expectedly, Street and Flash Flooding along with some Riverine flooding has been occuring island wide. 

At it's worst, a bit earlier tonight- it was 'a bucket a drop' with the Passage of the most intense feeder bands which truly turned the late afternoon hours into sheer darkness. This has certainly been one of our wetter storms in the Nature Isle, and Philippe compares quite a bit to the passage of Tropical storm Matthew (2016) which was quite a soaker for most of the island.

Hopefully, the rains will ease into the early hours of the morning and we'll be spared from any impacts that would be anything close to the likes of 'evil Erika' back in 2015 which caused devastating flash Flooding here. No one wants a Dejavu of that kind.

There have been many accounts of persons being stranded on road ways which were inundated, and having to be rescued overnight. We're all praying and trusting that no significant damage will result, & that no one has been injured as a result of Philippe's impacts

Hopefully, everyone spared no effort to secure lives and property especially if they live near to our countless prized Rivers and streams. So far the thunderstorm activity has been relentless with the Passage of Philippe's bands, but thankfully our power and other utilities have held up nicely. 
We'll see what the morning brings God's Willing.
Interestingly too the track of Philippe seems to largely be following that of Irma (2017). Prayers go out to those further north in the island chain...

Stay safe folks.

- Philippe's pilling on the Pressure
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2023 16:28:35 -0400
Well, again we are Oh so grateful that this system was not any better organized or at hurricane strength at this point. It's been pilling on the 'liquid Gold' all afternoon here in the Lovely Nature Island of the Caribbean. 

Thankfully, the rains have been mostly moderate in nature up to this point. However, the Northern parts of the island certainly seem to be taking the brunt of Philippe's feeder band activity which is clear to see on radar.

Of course, with sustained feeder band activity out of the Northwest our seas on the West coast have become agitated. Though to our delight the winds have abated somewhat, but it's almost as dark as dusk outside right now so it's definitely an afternoon and evening for the indoors away from water courses - perhaps curled up nicely with a book or device.

And based on radar observations it looks like more of the wet stuff is in store into the next 24hrs for the Nature Island, and our sister islands. Please stay safe everyone.

& Jane be prepared for a possible glancing blow from Philippe as it makes its way north west ever- so slowly- at least according to what's being forecast.

Hoping that all is well in Barbados & Guadeloupe etc. which saw even more feeder band activity than we have so far according to my radar observations.

Stay Vigilant & be prepared.
God Bless!

- Philippe's perturbations in Beautiful Dominica...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2023 14:10:03 -0400
Actually this storm is in some ways a Godsent- it's an answer to the prayers of many in the Leewards where it has been quite dry. & Thankfully it's too sheared to be strong enough -at least for now- being at only 50mph. So it's unlikely to be damaging wind-wise, but it's got lots of convection along with it to guarantee decent shower activity. Hopefully flash Flooding and other such hazards will not be impactful.

A Flood watch has appropriately been put in place for Dominica. Feeder band activity from Tropical Storm Philippe has been increasing along the West coast of our Beautiful island today with moderate to heavy pockets of showers at times. Let's hope & pray that we only get some good rain out of this and nothing more.

As of typing winds and rains have picked up considerably out of the West... this is quite intense- though short lived actually for a 'dis-organised' tropical storm system. 
I guess it just goes to show that one can't always rely overly on the satellite presentation of a system to make assumptions. The conditions at ground zero can always be worse than one anticipates.

Stay safe folks as Always.
God Bless!

- Perplexing Philippe...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2023 13:53:11 -0400
So Philippe is doing it's best to consolidate it's convection around it's center. Thankfully wind shear has been on our side thus far or we could have certainly had a hurricane on our doorsteps in the islands... Phew! However, the 'Lesser Antilles rule' may yet again aid some intensification in the long run as it's center nears the Antigua And Barbuda area. It's a wait and see scenario at this point as to whether it's central convective activity will build & deepen and strengthen the storm a bit as it nears the Leeward islands. Praying for no surprise rapid intensification issues here...

Stay safe folks!

- Philippe's proximity & procrastination...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2023 10:50:20 -0400
Well most of the Windwards and parts of the Leeward islands have already been receiving extensive showers courtesy of Tropical Storm Philippe's close proximity. Thankfully it's sustained storm force winds are mostly to the east of it's center for now. However, wind is never the only deadly hazard with storms.

And there's no mistaking that Philippe is in our vicinity as clouds have been rolling the 'wrong way' from West to east since the weekend having been reversed by the storm accompanied by an almost constant wind reversals pattern. 

The Central Isles and Leeward islands of the Lesser Antilles will have to be on guard as the center of the storm may make it's closest approach by tomorrow morning. Flash Flooding and the like are probable hazards along with rough seas and Gusty winds. 

It's good to see that at least Antigua and Barbuda has issued a tropical storm watch for their Territory. Let's not let our guards down folks. Precaution is always better than cure especially in the age of accelerated Human caused Global warming & Climate change. God be with us All!

Stay safe and vigilant, and be prepared.
God Bless!

- Philippe Preps...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 27 Sep 2023 04:36:18 -0400
Philippe will very likely come through the Leewards as a Low end Storm at worst, or at minimal Tropical Depression strength at best. Either way a near landfall appears likely in a couple of days time. I think the earlier tropical discussion for (Tue) 5p.m. was quite on point Re: the Northern bias of the models so far this year- 
" Philippe has not gained any latitude since this time yesterday and all of the models have had a notable north bias during that time period."

Well as always Time Will tell. 
So Stay prepared and Vigilant folks.
God Bless!

- Grateful for an Uneventful Super Hurricane Anniversary in Beautiful Dominica...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2023 21:31:48 -0400
Well, This is now the Sixth Anniversary of Super Hurricane Maria which devastated our Beautiful Commonwealth of Dominica at Category Five strength while still intensifying with sustained winds of at least 165mph with Higher gusts. 

On that fateful day (18/09/2017) Super Hurricane Maria basically moved at a walking pace over the Nature island (having slowed down to a mere 6mph). It brought unimaginable Sustained Hurricane force and later Storm force conditions to almost every nook and cranny of the island for a duration of at least 12hrs- or more from the evening of the 18th lasting into the 19th of September.

Of course, the end result was Epic and Catastrophic damage. & The levels of destruction left the usually Lush & Gorgeously Green Nature Isle of the Caribbean without a single green leaf anywhere to found. The extent of devastation to our housing stock, & our built and natural environment was truly mindboggling. In short our Beloved island was left literally unrecognizable. However, all was not lost!

The unfailing Zeal, determination and Resilience of Dominicans coupled with the Assistance of multiple friendly Governments led to a remarkably Speedy and almost unbelievable rate of relief and recovery -once Ports and other access points to the island had been cleared. Mother Nature also gave us a 'Miracle' of her own. Almost daily Copious rainy periods adorned with multiple rainbows littered the length and breadth of the islands for many consecutive months.

The beautiful end result was that within just 12 mere months after Maria by 2018 -the island had largely re-greened, and by 2019 already many parts of the island appeared to have returned to Pre-Maria prominence and ecological Glory. 
We are indeed Blessed, but we're certainly hoping and Praying that we will not have anything close to the likes of Category 5 Hurricane Maria anytime soon.
Stay safe and Stay Vigilant folks.
God Bless!

- Loitering Lee...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 9 Sep 2023 03:24:51 -0400
Well, it looks like Hurricane Lee is destined to do a near repeat of the track of Hurricane Jose (2017) and linger around a bit... 
It's interesting how History repeats itself. As Lee gets nearer than what's ideally comfortable Re: Marine & Swell activity -the Threat level is Now high with potential for extensive impacts on the coastal and on near shore environments.
Indeed, feeder band activity is likely to pick up into the morning hours for the Lesser Antilles... We'll see if Hurricane Lee's 'tail' will be a very Wet one and hopefully nothing more.

Stay safe & Be Prepared as Always folks.

- Lightning Speed Lee..
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 8 Sep 2023 00:07:26 -0400
Well, sadly & unsurprisingly Lee has leapt to Category 5 strength. & This is one of the most Explosive cases of Rapid intensification in the Atlantic Basin. 
& Although the core of the Hurricane should stay north of the Leewards some impacts are expected into the weekend. 

Dangerous Hurricane Lee certainly bears close watching as it moves nearer to our island chain & beyond.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Lee's potential Lashing...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 6 Sep 2023 13:24:45 -0400
Re: Jane's post- Indeed, Super Hurricanes Irma and Maria wreaked havoc on the Leeward islands just back in 2017. Dominica was absolutely devastated (by Hurricane Maria) along with Barbuda, St. Martin/Maarten, & the V.I (all devastated by Irma). & of course Puerto Rico was devastated by Maria also... However, we have certainly come a long way thank God in the Nature Isle, though we remain vulnerable in our small island developing states. It Literally only takes One...

So Let's be ever vigilant in this evolving reality of stronger, more rapidly intensifying /impactful and catastrophic storms & Hurricanes. & May we all use every measure to mitigate their effects and build resilience into every facet of our beloved Island life.

Stay safe & Prepared folks.

- Lee's Looming...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 6 Sep 2023 13:23:51 -0400
As per the NHC: 'Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by late this week and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast.' 
(The above wording is quite clear & instructive as to what's likely weatherwise over the weekend).

& Sea swells should begin adversely affecting the Eastern coastlines of our islands by this Friday God's spares (Leewards & Northern Windwards). Let's All heed and take the necessary precautions. It's Better to be safe than sorry...

Interestingly, whilst I was- Hoping that Lee's intensification Would not be an unprecedented explosive Rapid intensification event- it looks increasingly likely that it will be from tonight into the Weekend. A run at Category 5 is highly likely.

- Here comes Potentially Lethal Tropical Cyclone Lee...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2023 21:36:54 -0400
Well, as was expected we now have Tropical Storm Lee. & It's about to Explosively take off strength wise... Hoping that it Will not be unprecedented explosive Rapid intensification event. It would really not augur well for the future of Cyclonic formation in the context of Global warming within the Atlantic basin. Category 5 intensity is probable by Friday though for Lee as it nears the islands... (this is a bad dejavu).
Let's hope and Pray that it's effects on our islands will be minimal.

Hoping and Praying that what's likely to be Super Intense Category 5 Hurricane Lee in 48hrs time will have little to minimal impact not only on the Lesser Antilles island chain, but on any landmass in it's future sights.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Rapid intensification of Future Lee is expected.
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2023 12:57:15 -0400
Pre -Lee (TD 13) is a fairly Large system and will likely affect most of the Lesser Antilles in some way at this rate given it's present latitude and longitude relative to it's forward motion. Met Offices may need to start issuing enhanced Special weather statements and advisories for the coming weekend beyond what has been put out already as preliminary alerts. 

A rapidly strengthening and quick moving Cyclone (Possibly at Category 5 strength) just east of the islands is a nightmarish & foreboding possibility. 2017's Irma was sheer Catastrophic and was thankfully a much smaller Hurricane in overall size. What is soon to be Lee looks like it will be a possible Ike type system or Super Sandy system in Size and impact. Absolutely, a potentially apocalyptic event could unfold even without a direct Landfall for Multiple islands. This could potentially signify the upper margins for how bad Hurricanes can get with AHCGW (Accelerated Human caused Global Warming).

I do think that it will potentially have a far worse impact on the Lesser Antilles than is being forecast at the moment unfortunately. This could very well turn out to be a Georges (1998) type track, God forbid, or that of Hurricane Debby (2000). Or even worse something akin to the Great Hurricane Track of 1780, which is Not entirely off the Cards either... Time will Surely tell.

Explosive Rapid intensification is now likely as a Major Possibility for future Hurricane Lee...! Really a terrifying prospect to say the least.

Stay safe folks, we are into the peak of the Season.
& God Bless!

- Overdue Classification -TD 13 (Pre TS Lee)
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2023 10:38:06 -0400
I wouldn't be surprised to see Tropical Depression 13 (Pre Tropical Storm Lee) formally classified as a Tropical Storm by this afternoon, & 96L (near Africa's coast) being designated as Tropical Depression (14) by late tonight or the morning. 

This is truly one of the years with extremely active (hyperactive) cyclogenesis co-inciding with the climatological peak period for the Atlantic Hurricane season.

Stay safe folks and be Prepared.

- Time will Tell Very Soon...Re:95L (Pre- Lee)
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 4 Sep 2023 18:01:57 -0400
Well time will tell rather soon Re: 95L's True intentions for further development. We watch anxiously Eastward from the Lesser Antilles islands...
As the Hurricane season rhyme goes- 'September -Remember'. 

Praying and hoping for the very best for our islands with it's passage. However, Whether we end up getting a Direct impact or not- the peripheral effects of this system is likely to start affecting our islands by sometime Friday evening/ early Saturday morning. Now is a key time to get all of one's Hurricane Preparation plans underway...
Better safe than sorry!


- Katia Plus...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 2 Sep 2023 04:20:09 -0400
Well we now have Katia, which was overly anticipated. Now It looks like future Tropical Cyclone Lee (2023) will potentially be the problematic Land-falling system through the Lesser Antilles which the former Lee (of 2017) was not. 
This coming week could be interesting for the islands Re: potential cyclonic impacts. Early preparation and mitigation is key. The proverbial adages come to mind that it's Better to be safe than sorry, and precaution is better than cure.

Stay safe & be prepared everyone.
God Bless!

- Katia... et al
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 1 Sep 2023 22:06:03 -0400
Hi Everyone;

'Tropical Storm Gert Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023


-Definitely A bit of NHC Humour- One just has to Love it. It's absolutely a good perpetual coping mechanism for forecasters in the thick of what is turning out to be another busy and sadly deadly Hurricane season 2023.
And it's Looks like we should have Tropical storm Katia very soon in the Far Eastern Atlantic... 2023 is definitely living up to the CSU high range forecast. Cudos to their team for Calling it Accurately inspite of El Nino this Hurricane season.

Stay safe and stay prepared folks.
God Bless!

- And Now we have Jose...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 31 Aug 2023 09:53:41 -0400
Hi, Greetings to the Stormcarib family. Well as was anticipated we now have Tropical storm Jose. Thankfully it will not make a close brush by the islands as 2017's Jose did back in that dreadful September of 2017. 
The real peak of the season is still ahead of us so Let us all remains Vigilant and Prepared especially in our beloved Lesser Antilles islands.

Thoughts and Earnest Prayers go out to those affected in Florida/ Georgia and the Carolinas by Idalia. Remember it Only takes one...

Take care everyone.
God Bless!

- Tropical Storm Jose could be named...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2023 14:30:50 -0400
Praying and trusting that the folks in Georgia and Florida are staying safe with the Passage of Hurricane Idalia... thoughts and Prayers go out to You All who have been adversely affected.

As per Satellite presentation etc. TD 11 Surely appears to have met the Criteria for Being Upgraded to Tropical Storm Jose albeit short lived... Although both TD 11 (former 92L),  & Gert (remnants) have fought for so long that one never knows. These systems may persist for yet a while. & Idalia seems set to do the same thing in the Atlantic. 

Stay Vigilant folks. (The true peak of the Hurricane season is still ahead...)
God Bless!

- An infamous 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season -sadly in the making...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2023 01:47:47 -0400
Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin have both tragically out-performed intensity models... Hoping that those along the Florida West coast & inland took the time to prepare adequately, and to evacuate where deemed necessary. This is for all intents and purposes yet another epic catastrophic disaster in the making. 

God forbid if AHCGW (Accelerated Human caused Global warming) -rapid intensification becomes the norm for future Cyclonic development of Atlantic basin storms & Hurricanes. Many folks in the Lesser Antilles still have nightmares from the mind-blowing devastation caused by rapidly intensified Super Catastrophic hurricanes such as the likes of Irma and Maria in the infamous 2017 season. Sadly, such seasons appear to be coming more and more likely with dire consequences for us all especially for those located along our coasts and near general water bodies.

Stay safe folks and be prepared.
God Bless!

- Attention Eastwards...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2023 14:05:23 -0400
The remnants of Gert appear to be doing a bit of consolidation themselves -as per Composite radar view -just East of the Guadeloupe/ Commonwealth of Dominica area. Stay Vigilant folks...

- Eyeing Franklin & Remnants of Gert etc...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2023 00:29:23 -0400
Thankfully, weatherwise things have been quiet in the Lesser Antilles of late. However, with the remnants of Gert lurking east of the Windward islands area we are probably likely to get some inclement weather within the next 24-48hrs. The system already seemed to have produced a flash thunderstorm in St. Lucia.
Re: Franklin -I'm hoping that it's tail won't badly affect the P.R. & Virgin islands area like it did to Aruba. & Special Greetings to Jane in the V.I. We're one Caribbean weather family & You're Most Welcome.

Take good care everyone, & stay safe during this peak period of Hurricane season 2023.
God Bless!

- Vigilance...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2023 12:04:49 -0400
Well, as forecast Gert is now a remnant low. But Still needs some monitoring though... One never knows when unexpected Tropical regeneration can sneak up around the proverbial corner.

Also, the tail of Tropical Storm Franklin affected the island of Aruba earlier...
https://m.facebook.com › Caribbean...
Caribbean Weather Center | Willemstad Curaçao

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Long overdue classification of Systems; Emily, Franklyn & Gert...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 21 Aug 2023 04:45:41 -0400
Although the designation of the named systems Emily, Franklin & Gert, which were formerly: 98L, 90L, And Tropical Depression 6 respectively- took a bit longer than expected by the NHC, in my view- this was definitely warranted & meteorologically proficient. 
Indeed, the decision to eventually upgrade these systems were truly a bit-overdue as per merit. & infact, the oft technical meteorological argument of whether these systems actually possessed a closed low level center of circulation etc. was not applicable with the majority of these systems.

Case in Point Re: recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gert- the special weather discussion noted that:- 
'Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt. Conventional enhanced infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the same region of the cyclone. Accordingly, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.' 
However, given the usual problematic nature of weather tools such as Ascat -more suitable and real-time tropical system investigative & assessment tools need to be found.

Therefore, (90L) which was upgraded to Tropical Storm Franklin could have actually been designated as a named System while it was affecting the Windward island chain. Having outperformed the models it would have then earned the name *Emily. (*A Fitting Analog to Tropical Storm Emily- 2005). Interestingly Pre- Franklin (90L) was similar in it's cyclogenesis history to that of Isaias (2020) which crossed the island chain thru the Leeward islands while producing tropical storm conditions well before it was actually designated & named as such.

Notably, the islands from St. Vincent in the South to Guadeloupe in the North were impacted by Tropical Storm conditions over the weekend. & Sadly, there was an indirect death in Trinidad related to the passage of Pre- Franklin (90L)

Thoughts and prayers go out to the family of the deceased, and to those currently being affected by Hilary in Baha California & SoCal. By the look of things the naming of the additional invests as Harold & Idalia should not be too far off as the increase in Tropical Atlantic basin activity continues to peak.

-Also, 'Someone's' tropical cyclonic 'namesake' has debuted... No doubt it will be a very mild and gentle system as it's already forecasted to be. & Hopefully, Gert will not bring any major impacts to the Northern Leewards as it's expected to dissipate before doing so. 

Nonetheless, Peripheral & Fringe convection bands from newly formed tropical storm Gert could begin affecting the Leeward islands area by sometime tomorrow- Monday.

Stay safe everyone. & be Prepared...
God Bless!

- Pre- Emily...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 13:42:56 -0400
Here In Dominica the Feeder bands of Pre-Emily or in my view -what's already a Tropical Depression (90L) is generating periods of heavy rainfall accompanied by squalls and Gusty winds. 
Most persons are beginning to realize that this will likely be a rather intense system- impact wise Viz a vi Flooding and the Like...

Still Awaiting Designation of this System...
Stay safe Everyone.
& God Bless!

- Classification is overdue for 90L...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 12:59:06 -0400
Grenada's airport is now reporting North westerly Winds...
This should be a 'Fait accompli' for designation for 90L and 98L as well in fact. Tropical Cyclogenesis has occured in respect of these systems! Naming of these tropical systems should be occuring sooner rather than later...

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Potential Advisories...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 08:29:58 -0400
Yup, the weather is becoming increasingly squally in the islands already. In Dominica (Commonwealth of Dominica)- the shower activity has been ongoing from the early hours of the morning in some parts of the island. Occasional gusts with showers are building... 

Islands further south like Barbados will be in the Cross-hairs first! 40mph gusts were recorded in Barbados at Grantley Adams international airport already and building...
Hmmmm A Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert should at least be designated. An urgent advisory on this System is Needed.

- 90L is Developing...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 08:27:53 -0400
Full Cyclogenesis mode is now occuring -& Increased Outflow and Spiral banding is more evident now with 90L...
Again, increased Outflow/ Cyclonic rotation and Spiral banding is certainly more evident with 90L... Definitely Tropical Cyclonic formation is ongoing here.

Unfortunately, over-reliance on some models is occuring Re: the NHC forecasts - however, it's increasingly clear that the proverbial train has already left the Station Re: 90L... In Fact, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY... (If not Imminently) -That's what the latest weather bulletin should be indicating. The forecasting needs to be more real time, and accurate, and proactively proficient with the Lesser Antilles area. SMH... Probability percentages for 90L should be at Maximum currently on the Forecast Maps.

- AOI -Area of Interest is Strengthening just East of the Lesser Antilles Islands...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 02:22:52 -0400
This (AOI) area of interest has definite potential for some development as it nears the Lesser Antilles islands quite similar to tropical storm Bret which affected our islands back in June. Again the "Lesser Antilles rule" will likely come into effect resulting in strengthening and some sustained intensification as the core of the system approaches our island chain.

By some time tomorrow on Saturday we'll have a better idea as to how strong this system may get as it crosses the Lesser Antilles chain. Further Cyclogenesis is definitely a possibility, and we could see a tropical depression form at the very least by Saturday midday or evening God's Willing- If not *well before according to a few of the weather models, & the current development trends of this disturbance. I truly hope and pray that unsuspecting persons will not be caught badly off-guard by this developing tropical disturbance.

Stay vigilant and be prepared everyone. & Let's continue to watch and Pray regarding this system which is nearest to our islands- while not forgetting the other invests which are further out in the Atlantic. 
We are certainly heading into the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season 2023...
Let's continue to hope and pray that we don't get any major impacts this year.

An in-depth look at what to expect below (Link- compliments TTweathercenter): https://ttweathercenter.com/2023/08/18/tropical-wave-35-to-bring-heavy-rainfall-to-the-lesser-antilles/

God Bless!

- Heads up... Potential Tropical Cyclone development
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 01:57:40 -0400
Cyclogenesis definitely seems to be on the cards for the Lesser Antilles this weekend as the approaching tropical wave seems to be strengthening and becoming better stacked with convection and banding...

Infact, it seems very likely that the system has developed a low level center of circulation at this point.

This AOI (Area of Interest) is a very vigorous & strong tropical wave (with potential to develop) & is forecast to affect the Lesser Antilles this weekend, producing potentially flooding rainfall across parts of the island chain. So far, there are no cyclonic watches, or warnings in effect for any of the Lesser Antilles islands, and there are no (Potential tropical Cyclone) tropical storm watches or warnings in effect for the Lesser Antilles. Though that might change by Saturday morning of the System continues to organise.

A form of tropical system -Deja Vu... Most certainly! We definitely need to be more meteorologically pro- active Re: the NHC & our Met Offices in the Caribbean region on a whole. 
However, respective island Met Offices have issued some weather alerts:- namely; Grenada & it's dependencies, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominica (Commonwealth of), & the French islands of Guadeloupe to our North & Martinique to our South in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica.
Hoping and praying for the best this weekend...

Also, watching Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific... SoCal is now under a Tropical Storm Warning- It's the 1st ever in Modern day Weather advisories for (SoCal) Southern California (unprecedented). Definitely it's a prudent & proactive move by the NHC in conjunction with the Local weather service corporations... Hopefully this warning will prompt residents to take more decisive and critical life saving decisions sooner rather than later. We need advanced warnings likewise in the islands...
Thoughts and Prayers go out to the Baha & SoCal region this Weekend.
Everyone please Stay safe in the islands.

- '95 L' Regional Impacts...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2023 13:02:36 -0400
Unfortunately, 95L has proved to be quite impactful in some of the Lesser Antilles islands so far. Apparently a down burst from a line of intense thunderstorm cells in the French island of Guadeloupe (Grand Terre) resulted in widespread damage in parts of Guadeloupe, Pointe a Pitre, which is located to our north. 
In addition, heavy showers have triggered some incidents of rock slides and minor land slippages near the Soufriere area in St. Lucia -As reported on the St. Lucia news Now Facebook page (SNN).

Here in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica, the rains have been persistent throughout the day. Fortunately, there have not been any significant weather related incidents thus far thank God. However, some of our rivers have crested at their highest mark so far for this Wet season (2023). So 95L has definitely left it's mark in my view. 

Of course, there is still lots of trailing moisture left so everyone being affected by this system in the Lesser Antilles islands needs to stay safe and take the necessary precautions where necessary if one resides in any area that's vulnerable to heavy rainfall impacts etc.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- More of the Wet stuff...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2023 06:21:33 -0400
Well former 95 L is now back to Tropical wave status # 22/23. However, it is still set to drench our island as well as our neighbouring territories. Squally conditions are on tap to continue into the afternoon. & Flash flood watches are up for a lot of the Windward islands. 
Hopefully, it will not attempt a Cindy (1993) type of intensification near the islands or like that of Tropical storm Emily back in 2011 (deja Vu...?). Let's hope not and we ought to watch & Pray for the very best this storm season.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- 95L Makes it's presence felt...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Jul 2023 03:14:32 -0400
So far we have been having frequent showers, heavy at times with some squally conditions mixed in. Not too significant so far anyway. Though flooding could be a concern into Tuesday if rains persist. 
Airport reports in the windward islands confirm wind gusts at or near tropical storm force from Martinique South to the Grenadines. This is similar to the previous Vigorous tropical waves that have moved through the islands so far this year. 

Thankfully 95L has not strengthened as was feared. Although it still has an opportunity to do so while moving through the islands. If it had intensified some this could easily have been another Bret type of incident for some of the islands .

Stay safe and Vigilant Everyone.
God Bless!

- 95L bears watching...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2023 08:48:04 -0400
Indeed,  tropical wave *#23 (*English Meteorological numbering), Or otherwise classified as Invest 95L definitely bears watching. Some development of this system is still possible as it nears the Lesser Antilles islands as a vigorous tropical wave. The 'Lesser Antilles Rule' which favours development of such systems just east of the island chain could yet again come into effect. At best very squally conditions are possible into tomorrow...

Here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica, We have been having a pretty consistent mix of Glorious sunshine; Beautifully Sunny days mixed with some brief periods of Liquid sunshine (showers of Blessing). As we go more into the heart of the Hurricane season though with Atlantic Ocean temperature being historically hot -all eyes are trained Eastwards as the progressive march of tropical waves head to our islands from Equatorial Africa.

The last significant Tropical waves which came through the islands were notably Tropical wave #17 (French Met designated as #15), and Tropical Wave # 19, Or also (French Met #16) which were significant enough especially in the Southern windwards. 

In the case of the Former- tropical storm force wind gusts affected the Trinidad and Tobago (TnT) area as well as Grenada and it's dependencies. & in the case of the latter #19 - much of the Windward islands from Martinique South to TnT had squally wind gust conditions, which were an unnecessary reminder of Tropical Storm Bret which rolled through just a couple of weeks earlier.

Fortunately, #19 was mostly a 'soaker event' for us here with good rainfall totals adding up all across the Nature Isle. Best of all the rains halted like clock-work to allow Very Fair weather conditions to bask our island in time for our West Indies Cricket Test match against India in Roseau. Sadly, West Indies lost though our young & rising Home star -Alick Athanase still made us very proud!

Let's all continue to remain Vigilant as models are hinting at upcoming development after 95L early in the coming week. Pre 'Emily' seems destined to give some sort of 2005 impact to somewhere along the Lesser Antilles island chain... Hoping and praying that we'll not have a Bret like scenario or worse to deal with in any of the islands.

Below are some links from our Sister Isle St. Lucia - Post Tropical Storm Bret impacts (SLU);

Everyone Stay safe & Be Prepared this Hurricane Season.
& May God Bless our Caribbean region in Jesus' Precious & Holy Name.

- Tropical depression
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 3 Jul 2023 09:53:03 -0500
There is a big stretch of bad weather below us at the moment,which could come over us and travel up the islands!  Yesterday, last night and this morning we are having gusty winds, heavy showers and the odd patch of sun.  We can hear the Layou river thundering down below us.  It looks like it is in for the day and tomorrow.  Hopefully there will be no flooding but people need to be vigilant.  


- Tropical wave
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Jun 2023 06:39:05 -0500
Looking at the satellite picture,there is a lot of messy patchy weather!  We are feeling it here in Dominica, having a lot of showers!  No wind.  We cannot complain!!


- Bret
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Jun 2023 10:48:18 -0500
We are still experiencing weather from Tropical storm Bret.  Here in the Layou valley we have had rain a good deal of the night and it has rained non stop for the last 3 hours.  It is just beginning to brighten up.  Hopefully we are now at the back of Bert.

We hope everyone can relax and enjoy the weekend.


- Bye Bret
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2023 06:26:12 -0500
Dominica seems to have been spared so far by Bret!  We were expecting a really rough night.  We did everything necessary to protect ourselves and the dogs.  We have a large branch from a tree in the garden but otherwise everything is very peaceful

We understand that the other islands, Martinique, St Lucia, and St. Vincent have not been so lucky.  Our thoughts and prayers go out to them.  We are still experiencing gusty winds. Let's hope Brett passes us by today with no damage done!


- Squalls...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2023 03:17:54 -0400
As expected winds and rains have picked up along the Leeward side of the island associated with the bands of Tropical Storm Bret as it continues to pull away. Thankfully Bret was not any stronger at the time of crossing the Lesser Antilles islands, or it would have been truly catastrophic for the Windward isles that were directly affected. Keeping our Sister islands to our South in thought and in prayer as impacts continue into Friday...

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Brazen & bully Bret...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2023 01:28:22 -0400
Well it looks like Bret did a similar dip in track to Tropical Storm Kirk back in 2018 which also affected the St. Lucia area. Not a good surprise for the folks in Southern St. Lucia and St. Vincent; SVG who had worse conditions than they had bargained for.

& Not surprisingly... A type of the "Lesser Antilles rule" is on display for the moment with the Re- firing of convection around Bret's center -along with its increased organization and corresponding decrease in minimum central pressure- as well as the typical associated average wind speed increases. 

Bret is truly a unique tropical system which fought despite the meteorological odds that were stacked against it. 
Unfortunately, it's tenacity as a system had adverse effects on some of the islands Viz a vi their infrastructure. Thoughts and prayers go out to those who were badly affected in St. Lucia and Martinique in particular. (St. Vincent and Barbados our well wishes go out to You likewise at this time)

We are Caribbean Strong!
Stay safe folks.
God Bless!

- Bret's Battering of the Windward isles...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023 22:50:50 -0400
Nevermind the immediate satellite appearance of tropical Storm Bret- at ground zero it's Still packing a punch! Recent wind observations from the Hewanorrah airport in the South of St. Lucia reported gusts to 69mph... Prayers go out to our affected Bros and sisters in St. Lucia and Martinique in particular.

Of course, Fingers are crossed here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica... However, it seems like Bret's former gentlemanly behaviour towards the islands further north of St. Lucia/ Martinique is about to come to an end. 

With the likes of St. Vincent, Barbados, St. Lucia and Martinique all having taken a beating I suppose we're up next on the chain of islands. Hopefully ours will be a light one going into the early hours of the morning as some of the bands from Bret push more north and West with time.

Also, we now have Tropical Storm Cindy. Hopefully it won't do a 'Bret' on our islands.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Bret's passage begins...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023 13:46:35 -0400
T.S. Bret is clearly a fighter, and with Dmax looming at some point it should be Re-intensifying a bit in structure. Thus, Bret should regain a better organised structure and appearance on satellite pics just in time for a night time landfall across the Antilles... 
Of course, Not necessarily the best timing to say the least. However, time will tell as to how it's passage through the Lesser Antilles will unfold, But it's likely to still be Vigorous into the evening time yet again with convective flare-ups as in the past.

Currently, we are having sporadic showers and intermittent gusts here in the gorgeous Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica (The Commonwealth of Dominica). Nothing out of the ordinary yet though. But We'll see what the evening brings.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Bret!!
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023 06:16:32 -0500
This morning looking at the on coming Bret!  What a monster.  Bret is looking ominous.  Dominica could be going to get a lot of rain.  This could mean a lot of flooding and landslides.  Let's hope it is not another Erika!!

Everyone please be prepared, take every precaution.  Stay safe.


- Unabated Bret...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023 05:22:47 -0400
Well Bret seems to be trying to steadily 
organise in the face of shear. In fact, It's almost at Hurricane intensity threshold which is quite a feat considering it's previous forecast which called for little change in strength... St. Lucia is now under a Hurricane watch while we look on a bit nervously here in Dominica with bated breath. We are occasionally having the odd moderate shower, but we all know that by this afternoon things could get a lot more serious.

Meanwhile in the MDR in the eastern Atlantic we also have Tropical depression Four (Pre- Cindy). Unprecedented tropical activity for June month!

Stay safe everyone & Be Prepared.
God Bless!

- bold Bret...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023 02:17:57 -0400
We are currently under a Tropical Storm warning, and it's definitely a wait and see from this point. It's the proverbial calm before the storm here at ground zero in the Nature Isle. The next 12-24 hrs will likely bring some hazards, hopefully none that will be too impactful.

Stay safe everyone. & Thinking of our neighbors to our immediate south also...

- Bret
  • By Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2023 07:18:18 -0500
We are anxiously watching tropical storm Bret here in Dominica.  It is extremely early in the hurricane season to have any weather at all.  Dominica is particularly susceptible to floods and landslides.  We were out shopping yesterday and a lot of people had the same idea, to fill up their cupboards etc in preparation for the hurricane season.

We like everyone are watching with bated breath!  We are having some heavy showers of rain!  Last night we had a clap of thunder big time with no lightning, weird.

Is this the effect of global warming?  It appears so.  This does not bode well for the Caribbean.

Please, everyone in Dominica be prepared for the worst, take every precaution.  Stay safe. 


- Bret Track uncertainty...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2023 19:05:12 -0400

A Dean -like track (2007) still looks very likely over that of Elsa (2021)... Time will tell though. Irrespective of it's eventual track all of us in the island chain still need to prepare for Bret. Also, the current tropical wave which is moving through our islands is also paving a more moist route for Tropical Storm Bret. We have been having persistent showers here in the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica. & Most of the fauna here is generally eerily quiet already. These omens seldom fail to predict Re: impending weather...

& I'm still not ruling out the effect of the Lesser Antilles rule where tropical systems tend to intensify and organize much more quickly once nearing 55W and beyond. Fiona (2022) and Elsa (2021) are among the most recent cases in point. Thus, Bret could still reach hurricane status by tomorrow God's Willing while approaching the islands.

Stay safe everyone & Be prepared.
God Bless!

- Early T.S. Watch. . .
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2023 17:26:25 -0400
We are now under a Tropical Storm watch along with Barbados... I must commend the local met officials and state authorities along with the BMS under whose authority we enlist for being so proactive in issuing this advisory for the island of Dominica. More persons are certainly now more conscious and driven to do their necessary preparations ahead of Thursday's likely impact.
Prepare for the worst and always hope for the best.
Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Bret Barreling West...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2023 15:31:14 -0400
Indeed, with AGW; Accelerated Global Warming (Human caused) along with the Precedence of the 'Lesser Antilles rule' it's unfortunately still a significant possiblity that a hurricane could develop out of Bret- inspite of the predicted wind shear etc. Rapid intensification episodes have become all too common in the last couple of decades. Hopefully, Bret will stay far enough south of us here in Dominica to not be too problematic overall.

It's a wait and see though- but having lived in the islands through countless hurricane seasons -history teaches one to always err on the side of caution. Better to be safe than sorry. 

Most persons here in the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica, are waking up to the significant probability of this numbing possibility unfolding over the next 48 or so hours. Praying and trusting that this system will remain at storm status.

Everyone will hopefully make maximum preparations with the memory of super Hurricane Maria (2017) being merely six years ago.

Stay safe everyone in Jesus' Name.
God Bless!

- An Historic Bret steadily blooming...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2023 19:36:51 -0400
Hi everyone, Well as expected Watches and warnings will be flying for the islands most likely by tomorrow evening with Tropical storm Bret barrelling in our way.

Bret's formation is Really Highly Unusual, so early in the season, & it's an Historic occurrence as well. & Given the current odds for 93L which is behind Bret- it's likely that we'll soon have Bret as well as Cindy this June -having both formed in the (Main development region) MDR. Should this situation materialize it would be an incredibly dangerous, And highly concerning precedent for the Atlantic hurricane season, 2023.

On the local front most persons are not too panicked as yet, although most of the forecast models seem to have the Nature Island of the Caribbean, Dominica as their bullseye. However, if Bret continues to intensify as forecast and becomes a hurricane in the next 24hours then -all out hurricane panic will definitely sweep the island's population. 
I hope that everyone takes the opportunity to prepare Early. Precaution is always better than cure.

Stay safe everyone.
God Bless!

- Bracing for 'Bret'...
  • By Fedaw Shercloh <fedawshercloh at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Jun 2023 12:01:11 -0400
Heads up to everyone in the Lesser Antilles island chain... Of course, Much earlier than expected, & earlier than most would have thought an organised Tropical system (Tropical depression three (3)) is barreling towards the islands in June. 

Notwithstanding, the various models earlier projections- currently based on the system's present location and path it appears that the central -southern Lesser Antilles islands could easily face the brunt of soon to be Bret- rather than the North Eastern Lesser Antilles islands (Leeward islands) as has been forecast. 

It's still a wait and see at this point, however, I fear that this could turn out to be a sort of Dean (2007) like cyclonic impact, God forbid. As always, time will tell. Everyone needs to make adequate preparations should the worst case scenario pan out. Precaution is always better than cure.

Stay safe everyone & those in flood prone areas should take evacuation measures at this time while the system is not yet upon us. & Look out for your neighbours especially the elderly.

P.S. Stay vigilant as 93L is following a similar path to Tropical depression 3 in the main development region in the far Eastern Atlantic.

May God Bless our lovely islands!

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