By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2025 19:07:03 -0400
This is soul destroying to watch as this monster of a this hurricane
destroying so much in its path with our fellow islands. I am
seriously sick to my stomach to watch this as I think of those in harms way
having been through many hurricanes but nothing like this.
Sent from my iPhone
- Melissa making the dreaded turn
By Allan D <top_shatta_ad2002 at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:56:35 +0000
Latest center fix from hurricane hunter aircraft indicates what appears to be the beginning of a turn to the NW based on the progression of the last few fixes.
This means the dreaded turn towards Jamaica has begun and would likely be reflected in near future NHC advisories.
Regards,
Allan
- Ferocious Melissa still getting stronger…
By Allan D <top_shatta_ad2002 at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:41:24 +0000
This is one of the dropsonde data received over the last couple of hours. It shows wind at least in gusts up to 188 mph in the NE eyewall. What is remarkable is if you go up only 17 meters, the wind (possibly in gusts) went as high as 205 mph. So if you are
in the path and live in a high-rise or at elevation, please be very careful! I know some will think the higher you go the further you are from flooding and storm surge but with height comes danger of higher winds so make sure it's a sturdy structure you're
sheltering in.
Also, latest min pressure is still falling with each pass of the hurricane hunter aircraft through the eye measuring 906.8 mb. That means Melissa could strengthen even further before landfall in Jamaica.
Please stay safe everyone!
God bless,
Allan
- Storm Jerry. 2am Friday
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 10 Oct 2025 02:05:41 -0400
We are having heavy rain and thunderstorms. It has moved to 18.5 north (
Antigua is 17.1. So it is to our north thankfully but because it is such a
large mass we have lots of thunderstorms to follow. We are on a 212 foot
hill so flooding is not our problem but I fear for those in low lying areas.
There will be serious flooding! I fear for little sister island Barbuda. I
will be very thankful to see day break in a few hours
- Tropical Storm Jerry on our doorstep
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 9 Oct 2025 21:31:14 -0400
So far at least on the EAST COAST here at HALF MOON BAY ALL is QUIET with
only a little rain ! It seems a bit odd as we see this threatening
looking weather system ON OUR DOOR STEPS! According to STORMCARIB the
closest it will come to us is 45 miles to our east at 1:42 AM -
about 4 hours from now so not sure we will have a PEACEFUL NIGHTS rest
as we usually do! Our Met Office just gave an encouraging review of
the situation and it seems we will be spared of ILL WINDS with most being
to the EAST of the system however we are watching a slight track to the
WEST so I am not totally relaxed yet .. we all know the ONLY THING
we KNOW is we DONT KNOW FOR SURE what "weather is doing" until it is
up on us ( I well REMEMBER the HURRICANE IRMA saga coming DIRECT to us
and last MIN turn to Barbuda ! SO we may get more than we hope! We
“think” we have at least 24 hours more to go as this massive system
drifts on ! MY ENTRANCE HALL looks VERY GREEN as I stuffed it with
pots of home grown herbs and special plants to protect them “ IN CASE”
Anxious to see the “backside” of JERRY as it moves on.
WE ARE HAPPY NOT A CAT 5 storm over us but we need to be alert
MORE TO COME as the day and night goes on
- Antigua weather
By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at icloud.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Oct 2025 20:53:41 -0400
Our MET OFFICE just gave a brief on this.. As of 8 pm Jerry is 392
miles off and slowed from 25 to 21 mph and is getting better organized and
there is a good chance it will be a hurricane BEFORE it passes to our
East. He commented this would change things and asked we stay closely
tuned to be aware of what is coming our way ! Well we all know the
ONLY THING we KNOW is we DONT KNOW FOR SURE what "weather is doing"
until it is up on us ( well REMEMBER the IRMA saga coming DIRECT to us
and last MIN turn to Barbuda ! SO we may get more than we were led to
believe.
- WATCHING WHAT WILL BE HURRICANE JERRY
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Oct 2025 08:54:23 -0400
CLOSELY watching this still to our SOUTH but with the PREDICTED NORTH
TURN as you see in the top photo but as we KNOW WEATHER CAN CHANGE so
time will tell BE PREPARED is the key
Sent from my iPhone
- HURRICANE JERRY ON ANTIGUA DOOR step
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 7 Oct 2025 17:27:50 -0400
WE are carefully watching TROPICAL storm jERRY approaching us around
Thursday NIGHT to probably be a HURRICANE ( CATAGORY 1) as it passes
us. WE HOPE FOR A MORE NORTH TURN but we know the ONE THING ON
WEATHER Is WE DONT KNOW FOR CERTAIN so Prepared we will be!! Standing
by !!
Sent from my iPhone
- Eyes to the east.
By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at icloud.com>
Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2025 12:39:10 -0400
Not liking Mr yellow just coming off Africa. It it too far south !
Sent from my iPhone
- Weather gone !
By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at icloud.com>
Date: Sun, 7 Sep 2025 05:58:59 -0400
Strange weather times we are living through. This last was one weird dude.
Even the experts were baffled Today in the all clear !!
But it is the height of hurricane season 👍
Sent from my iPhone
- Weather forecast looking better
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 6 Sep 2025 01:27:27 -0400
Very thankful it seems 91L. Development looking less certain on several sites.
Still need to stay alert however
- Hurricane outlook
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 3 Sep 2025 06:07:41 -0400
Reviewing new hurricane site ! Not liking this track.
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Sep 2025 19:53:17 -0400
Another area to keep an eye on. Seems it will be forming in the next
10 days but hopefully with a NORTH TURN but far far too early to say on
this one so the “golden rule” is BE PREPARED “. We are entering the
height of the hurricane season
- ANTIGUA WEATHER
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2025 10:25:31 -0400
LOOKS LIKE this tropical system will STEER NORTH OF ANTIGUA but we are
very overcast today and getting rain ( A GOOD THING ) Our MET OFFICE
is warning of possible flooding in low lying areas but no ILL WINDS
thankfully.
There is another system behind but will probably go SOUTH.
Sent from my iPhone
- Weather watching. Again
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 19 Aug 2025 16:01:56 -0400
We are watching these Two systems dance across the Atlantic now. I am returning from MIAMI early ON THURSDAY to be Sure I am on island should this system pull an “ERIN” and develop on the spur of the moment and strengthen. We will soon be in the PEAK OF THE HURRICANE TIME early September.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Sent from my iPhone
- ACTIVE STORM TIMES IN THE CARIBBEAN
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 17 Aug 2025 20:58:16 -0400
LANDED few hours ago in MIAMI (LITERALLY JUMPING OVER HURRICANE ERIN IN THE AIR BUMPY !) after dealing with few days of the Wrenched HURRICANE ERIN and now seeing this on our door step in ANTIGUA so may have to be LIKE the BIRDS AND FLY BACK SOUTH soonest to "stand by my man" and and furry and feathered animals ! May be the FASTED "international trip" I have done..; TAKE CARE OF business and move on !!! WIERD WORLD WE ARE LIVING IN weather wise !! THERE IS A LOT TO SAY ON THIS
- Hurricane Erin passing Antigua
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 16 Aug 2025 05:18:15 -0400
5 am on Saturday morning with heavy cloud cover from now Category 3 hurricane
Erin. (At 120 mph ) Have had only slight winds but can hear the sea pounding
—. To dark to see yet Have not heard anything official on Antigua & Barbuda
but seems we have been spared and hope there are none in harms way on the path
especially Bermuda 🇧🇲 with “my Bermuda family “ there 🙏. early September is the
peak of our Hurricane Season so we continue to weather watch! Very thankful
this time !
- HURRICANE ERIN
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2025 10:58:12 -0400
On this FRIDAY MORNING HURRICANE ERIN has just been named and is TRACKING NORTH OF ANTIGUA and you see in this STORM CARIB HOW cLOSE can it get - Shows 189 miles THE ZOOM EARTH LINK below shows real time track of what is coming our way so we should get WELCOME RAIN.
Hope those in the path do not get more serious winds.
This early morning on Thursday August 14th we wake up in Antigua & Barbuda with Tropical Storm ERIN at 16.3 N ( Antigua is 17.1 ) so still slightly SOUTH of us moving WEST and gaining strength…... but all models show a NORTH TURN later today so we are all anxious to see that. We have watched some weird HURRICANES Over the years do strange things including the strangest being “LEFTY LENNY” that CAME at us from the WRONG WAY. (The west instead of east!) So I never feel it is what “ THEY SAY”: until it happens! BEING PREPARED IS THE KEY…In the 1995 Cat 4 HURRICANE LEWIS our home as badly damaged so we are “hurricane shy” and always ere on the side of CAUTION.. THE OTHER BIG COMFORT OF knowledge is the info AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE FLOWN the system as they get much more “accurate data” than satellites do. I flew with this elite group of aviators as PRESS into the eye of HURRICANE FABIAN in 2003 and have the utmost respect for what they do and the information they provide to THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. So looking at their PLAN FOR THE DAY (see photo ) am anxious to see the update on what is now Tropical storm ERIN to become a hurricane soon. Standing by but also doing preparation IN CASE worst case scenario happens.
Sent from my iPhone
- Storm ERIN
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2025 18:37:51 -0400
THIS WEDNESDAY WE ARE WATCHING ERIN which shows a NORTH TURN over the next couple of
days with the predicted nearest point as shown below. Hopefully the models will be accurate but we have seen
Strange changes in these hurricanes so nothing if FOR CERTAIN
Erin is moving quickly westward and this general motion is
expected through Thursday, with a west- northwestward motion
beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend, with
gradually slower forward speed. On the forecast track, Erin could
move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts
on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still
not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the
progress of this storm.
- Storm watching.
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 2025 06:59:09 -0400
On this early TUESDAY MORN all eyes in Antigua & Barbuda are on STORM
ERIN to most likely become a hurricane in the near future. With many models
predicting the path this is one which is 268 miles to Antigua's NORTH on
Saturday evening (THIS CAN EASILY CHANGE as we have witnessed many times.
One small worry for me ( beings an avid animal lover) is my wild life,
including this nest of baby bananaquit bird in my openair veranda
chandelier. They are only days from fledging!
BE SAFE ALL IN THE STORMS PATH AS ERIN moves north.
Sent from my iPhone
- STORM WATCHING
By Martha Gilkes <gilkesm at icloud.com>
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2025 14:28:38 -0400
THE first serious “watch” is now off our shores (TROPICAL STORM ERIN )
as you see here and “ all eyes to the east” The path APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS but there is NO WAY OF KNOWING THIS
early so PREPARATION IS THE ANSWER. It is that time of year !
Sent from my iPhone
- HURRICANE SEASON IN ANTIGUA
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2025 13:42:38 -0400
As we soon get into AUGUST - WITH SEPTEMBER BEING OUR MOST ACTIVE MONTH…... we are looking at t he “EXPERTS” including Antiguas own DALE DESTIN with 268 Weather and aware all are saying as below. ADVANCED planning and being prepared is the key so hope all are taking this serious as we stand by ! We are here watching and will keep you posted as best possible!
Our first watch of the season
Too early to comment much but people get ready !!
Sent from my iPhone
- Hurricane season
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2025 07:48:43 -0400
We are soon starting month 2 of hurricane season which is forecast to be very active! They say the high temperatures are a major factor ! We will keep you posted here on storm season on Antigua as we face this
North Atlantic remains very warm, with high Ocean Heat Content (OHC) forecast in 2025
- Upcoming hurricane season.
By Martha Watkins Gilkes <marthawatkinsgilkes at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 22 May 2025 10:18:28 -0500
Just released by NOAA. As hurricane season starts June 1st. As we all know
the key is to be prepared. We will be standing by and thankful to Gert Dave
and Storm Carib for being here !
