Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will=20
emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds=20
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly=20
N of 29N between 68W and 80W, Fri afternoon through Sat=20
late morning. Rough to very rough seas will follow the front.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan=20
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at the website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!-d5N6vlX2mq2S3Hd8Li2KmSLbG9SsVEyMxeG4NI_0M0F955Hn7ICNJm7-dayTbzz6=
VX3kdUHNsJ32slCOzkQ21u2xZI$  for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to 01S44W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 05W and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to=20
moderate southerly return flow is found across the basin. Seas=20
are in the 6-9 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-6 ft elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from the NW Bahamas=20
westward across the entire Gulf of Mexico, and will shift=20
eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the=20
Texas coast tonight. Fresh southerly winds are ahead of the=20
front over the western and north central Gulf. The front will=20
reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville,=20
Texas by Fri morning, and will be over the south waters on Sat=20
morning, extending across the Straits of Florida to near=20
Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be=20
expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high=20
pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through=20
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA

A weakening Atlantic cold front extends through 20N59W=20
southwestward across the southern Leeward Islands to 14N66W. No=20
significant convection is depicted with this feature. Moderate=20
to fresh northerly winds prevail between 65W and 81W. Light to=20
gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range=20
in the SW and central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, a 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Bahamas=20
near 27N77W and extends a ridge westward across the Gulf of=20
Mexico. A weakening Atlantic cold front extends through 20N59W=20
southwestward across the southern Leeward Islands to 14N66W. The=20
front will move slowly eastward and into the Tropical Atlantic=20
waters Fri then dissipate by Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds=20
will return to the south-central Caribbean by Fri night and=20
persist through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front=20
will reach the NW Caribbean by Sat afternoon, and extend from=20
eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W=20
on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...=20

A 1017 mb high is centered over the NW Bahamas near 27N77W. A=20
1010 mb low is centered near 30N62W. Scattered moderate to=20
isolated strong convection is noted within 110 nm E semicircle=20
of the low. A cold front extends from 31N56W to the southern=20
Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate and isolated strong=20
convection is noted within 130 nm of the front. Recent=20
scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong southerly winds east=20
of the front. Rough seas to 10 ft are noted on either side of=20
the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, are=20
noted north of 22N between 64W and 76W. Light to gentle winds=20
are W of 76W. Farther east, high pressure prevails across the=20
waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 15N to 28N=20
between the west coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to fresh=20
winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 7-10 ft generally prevail=20
elsewhere.=20

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front continues to move slowly=20
eastward across the Atlantic, extending from 31N56W to the=20
southern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong S winds are noted E of=20
the front, while large N to NE swell is W of 65W. The cold front=20
will reach from 31N55W to 20N58W to 14N60W by Fri morning, then=20
weaken to a frontal trough on Sat, and drift westward toward the=20
Leeward Islands on Sun. Winds and seas associated with this=20
system will improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front=20
will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale force SW winds=20
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly=20
N of 29N and W of 65W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough seas=20
in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft=20
reaching as far S as 25N on Sun.

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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