Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends axis from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W and continues to 05N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
03N25W to 03N35W and to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 06N to 08N between 20W and 23W, from 06N to 08N between 33W and
36W, and from 05N to 07N between 40W and 43W.


A dissipating stationary front extends from western Cuba to weak=20
1015 mb low pressure near 24N90W, with a cold front extending to=20
18N94W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to
strong winds within 180 nm in the northeast quadrant of the low
pressure. Recent reports from the nearby buoy 42002 show fresh
winds and seas to 8 ft, suggesting seas are reaching 8 ft a little
farther east into the area of stronger winds close to the center
of the low. Coastal observations near the port of Veracruz are=20
showing fresh to occasionally strong winds. Seas are likely
reaching 8 ft just offshore, and 5 to 7 ft over much of the area=20
west of the cold front, south of 26N. Gentle to moderate breezes=20
and slight seas are noted elsewhere. No significant shower or=20
thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, the low and attendant fronts will move=20
southeast and dissipate through late today. Meanwhile a cold=20
front will enter the northeast and north-central Gulf today, then=20
continue southward across the eastern Gulf through Tue. High=20
pressure will build across the northern Gulf Wed through Fri.=20


Trade wind convergence along with divergent flow aloft east of a
weak mid/upper level trough over Nicaragua are together supporting
a few showers and thunderstorms over the far southwest Caribbean,
south of 15N and west of 80W. No other significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident across the Caribbean. A
scatterometer satellite from 02 UTC confirmed fresh trade winds
across the south-central Caribbean, with strong winds off
Colombia. Seas are likely 5 to 7 ft, with seas to 8 ft off the
coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Gentle to
moderate winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for
light breezes and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist=20
over all but the NW Caribbean through mid week, with strong winds=20
pulsing off Colombia, mainly at night. A weak front will move=20
through the Yucatan Channel by late Tue, then stall and dissipate=20
over the far northwest Caribbean through Wed. High pressure=20
building north of the front will slightly enhance trade winds=20
across the Caribbean later in the week. Meanwhile, moderate N to=20
NE swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and=20
through the NE Caribbean passages through Mon tonight.=20


A trough extends from 31N75W to near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh
NW winds following the front off the coast of northeast Florida.
Fresh SW winds are likely ahead of the trough, north of 28N. A=20
stationary front from 31N60W to 27N75W is starting to dissipate.
Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere
west of 65W. 1017 mb low pressure persists near 28N53W. Although,
weak, an earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh to Strong=20
winds within 90 nm of the center in the eastern quadrant, along
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere north of 20N
between 45W and 65W, gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas
are evident, with fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas farther
south into the deep tropics, where NE swell continues to
propagate. Fresh to strong NE winds with 8 to 12 ft are noted east
of 45W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned stationary front
reaching from 29N65W to the 25N75W will dissipate this morning,=20
ahead of a weak reinforcing cold front that will move into the=20
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda later today. The=20
second front will continue south before stalling from 26N65W to=20
central Cuba by late Wed, then dissipate through Thu. High=20
pressure will settle across the northern waters along 30N north of
the front Tue through Fri.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and=20
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by=20
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at=20;!!DZ=
YP$ .

Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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