NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 22 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0439 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from 02.5N
to 14N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 02.5N to 08N between 32W and 40W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 54W from
05N to 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09.5N to 12N between 50W and 55W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64.5W from
16N southward to central Venezuela, moving westward at around 15
kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W, from 18N
southward across Honduras and Nicaragua to the far eastern
Pacific. This wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 12.5N and west of
77W, also in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough which
extends across the far SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and
continues southwestward to 06.5N25.5W. The ITCZ is analyzed in
two segments, which are broken by tropical waves moving across the
Atlantic. One segment extends from 06.5N25.5W to 06N35W, and
another from 05N40W to 06N52W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate
convection is observed along and within 100 NM of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ E of 32W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
This surface trough in combination with a mid level trough are
supporting the development of scattered moderate convection over
the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted in
the western Gulf, west of 87W, except for fresh to strong NE
winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. East of 87W, light to gentle
E winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft W of 90W, and 1 to 3 ft E of
90W.
For the forecast, deep tropical moisture will surge north-
northwestward across the western Gulf through the weekend,
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The
stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and
locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are
expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend
before diminishing early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in
the SW Caribbean.
A deep layer trough over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered
moderate convection over the area. The pressure gradient between
strong high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombia Low
is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, and
near gale force offshore of Colombia according to the latest
satellite derived winds. Rough seas are present within the area of
these winds, with seas to 10 ft offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to
fresh E winds and moderate seas prevail across the E Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas 3-6 ft prevail.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades
over the central part of the basin through early next week. Winds
will pulse to near gale force off Colombia tonight. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
A 1033 mb high is analyzed near 39N30W, with a ridge extending
from the high into the central and eastern Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics results in a large area of fresh to locally strong E to NE
winds across much of the Atlantic south of a line running from
Puerto Rico to near the Cape Verde Islands with seas 6 to 9 ft.
South of a line that runs from the Cape Verde Islands to the
Canary Islands strong NE winds prevail with seas 8 to 11 ft. South
of 25N and west of 55W, moderate E winds prevail with seas 4 to 5
ft. North of 25N and west of 35W, light to gentle winds prevail
with seas 2 to 4 ft.
A pair of surface troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic:
one from 31N55W to 28N66W, and the other from 31N41W to 27N50W.
These features are supporting scattered moderate convection in the
general vicinity of both of these surface troughs. South of this
area, isolated showers and thunderstorms are also occurring near
the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak trough will prevail over the
NE waters through early next week. Otherwise, high pressure will
prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally
rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ KRV
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