Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM Wed Apr 08 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 
05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil near 
01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ mainly south of 05N and west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb 
high off the SW coast of Florida near 24N84W. A surface trough 
extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 19N94W. The latest 
scatterometer data and surface observations depict light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds across the basin, with moderate easterly winds 
prevailing north of the Yucatan Peninsula. 

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. A 
cold front will reach the northern Gulf late Thu night, then stall 
and weaken across the southern Gulf Fri night. Southerly winds will 
increase across the basin this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires 
in southern Mexico may reduce visibility over the SW Gulf and Bay 
of Campeche. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Like the Gulf of Mexico basin, generally weak high pressure is
prevailing across the basin. In addition, dry air associated
with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean and strong winds 
aloft over the remainder of the Caribbean continue to inhibit 
deep convection from developing. A surface trough is analyzed 
over the eastern Caribbean from 18N62W to 10N64W, with no 
significant convection associated to it. The gradient between 
the high pressure and the low pressure center located over north 
Colombia, is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across most
of the Caribbean.

A band of low-level clouds with embedded showers is affecting 
Puerto Rico and parts of Hispaniola. This moisture is derived 
from an old frontal boundary, now analyzed as a trough. A recent 
Ascat pass indicates a northeast to east-southeast wind shift 
across the trough that stretches from the northern Leeward 
Islands to Puerto Rico and to just south of Hispaniola. This 
trough is forecast to lift northward over the next 24 hours. 

High pressure over the SW Atlantic will continue support
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela through Thu morning. Fresh winds will pulse each
night over the Gulf of Honduras, becoming strong this weekend.
Long-period northerly swell will affect the waters east of the
Lesser Antilles Thu night through Sun.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging spans across the western Atlantic anchored by a 
1018 mb high near 27N68W. In the central Atlantic, mid-level 
trough continues to dig across the area. At the surface, a 
surface trough extends from 31N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers 
are noted along and east of this trough, mainly north of 23N.
High pressure continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic anchored
by a 1021 mb high near 28N20W. 

High pressure will prevail east of Florida today. A surface
trough will move across the NW waters tonight and Thu. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of this
trough. A cold front will move SE across the region Thu night
through Sat night. Southerly winds will increase east of
Florida Sat night through Sun nigh, possibly reaching gale
force N of 30N. 

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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