NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from
03N19W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 01S34W, and 01S40W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of the ITCZ
within 30 nm of line from 02N31W to 02N36W to 02N41W, and within
30 nm of 02N20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S
of trough between 16W-20W, and S of the trough within 60 nm of
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from central Florida out over the far
eastern gulf from the Tampa Bay area to 26N91W, where it
transitions to a warm front to inland Mexico near Corpus Christi.
The front will weaken through this morning, with its remnants
lifting northward as a warm front this afternoon, ahead of a cold
front that is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Sunday.
This front will be preceded by a line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi
Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida Big
Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then move
slowly southeastward on Tuesday, and eventually being southeast of
area by Wednesday evening.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire
area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Gulf of
Uraba of Colombia. Lingering rainshowers cover the area that
extends from Nicaragua near 13N northward to the Bahamas near 24N
between 68W/eastern sections of Hispaniola and 88W in parts of
Surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the
area. rainshowers are possible from 15N southward from 76W
Other rainshowers are possible from 77W eastward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe.
Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through early
Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds then are expected to resume
on Sunday night along the northern coast of the South America.
Northeast swell, currently across the tropical waters that are to
the east of the Leeward Islands, will subside gradually through
Saturday evening. A weakening cold front will pass across the
Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle of next week.
A cold front is analyzed from just to the east of Bermuda
southwestward to 30N71W and to 29N76W, where it becomes stationary
to Cape Canaveral and to across central Florida to the Gulf of
Mexico near Tampa Bay. A surface trough is within 150 nm to 210
nm to the southeast of the cold front. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of line from 27N71W to 26.5N72W, and
within 30 nm of line from 27N73W to 27N75W. Similar convection is
within 60 nm southeast of the trough E of 64W, and east of the
trough within 30 nm of 27N66W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible elsewhere from 25N to 28N between
The cold front portion of the above mentioned front will become
stationary E to W along 26N by tonight. Remnants of this front
will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale force southeast wind flow
will develop north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east of a
surface low that will shift eastward across the southeastern
United States. The surface low will move northeastward along the
Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday, and drag a cold
front across the northwest waters during the middle part of next
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N15W, or
about 300 nm to the north of the Canary Islands. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 22N northward from
30W eastward. A 1006 mb low pressure system is located near
34N14W, with its associated frontal boundaries extending from the
low to inland northern sections of Africa.
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