NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:=20
A 1025 mb high currently over southern Texas is building southward,
supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and very rough seas=20
across the western Gulf of Mexico. Offshore from Veracruz, winds=20
are peaking at strong to gale-force, while seas are ranging=20
between 9 and 12 ft. These hazardous marine conditions will=20
persist until early Thursday morning. Both winds and seas will=20
gradually subside starting late Thu morning. Please refer to the=20
High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at websites:
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!-mx2kZxcmULWNcKfSpvkkMkEAvjWLhz4UTT3D8HpSzEVTKScClzcDtq3vwUHRrptd=
DLEF4MbbG1VyS7lrcz_rgoTgrU$ and
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php__=
;!!DZ3fjg!-mx2kZxcmULWNcKfSpvkkMkEAvjWLhz4UTT3D8HpSzEVTKScClzcDtq3vwUHRrptd=
DLEF4MbbG1VyS7lrcz_ooAa5EQ$ for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
Most of the monsoon trough remains over the African Continent. An=20
ITCZ stretches westward from just offshore of northern Sierra
Leone to 06N34W, then turns northwestward to 11N42W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ
east of 39W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
flaring up near the western end of the ITCZ from 08N to 14N
between 39W and 43W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering=20
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning=20
near Veracruz.=20
A cold front curves southwestward from near Naples, Florida across
northwestern Cuba and the Yucatan Channel to the Yucatan=20
Peninsula. Patchy showers are seen across the Florida Straits and=20
Yucatan Channel, including the Florida Keys. Moderate to fresh NW=20
to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the Florida=20
Straits and Yucatan Channel. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh=20
to strong NW to N winds with 6 to 10 ft seas prevail for the rest=20
of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and very rough seas will
persist behind the front through the night. Afterward, high=20
pressure will build in the wake of the front with marine=20
conditions gradually improving across the Gulf from west to east=20
through the end of the week. The high pressure will become=20
centered over the northeastern Gulf early Sun, sustaining gentle=20
to moderate SE to S winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to=20
locally fresh SE to S return flow over the western Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Convergent southerly winds to the south of a cold front over the
Yucatan Channel are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of western Cuba. A modest surface trough is
generating patchy showers between Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to
5 ft are present across the waters adjacent to the Yucatan
Peninsula and Channel. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas
are noted north of Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE=20
to SE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the=20
Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the cold front will continue southeastward and=20
reach from central Cuba along 80W to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu=20
morning. It will then reach from eastern Cuba to near Cabo=20
Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Fri morning, and from the Windward=20
Passage to near the Costa Rica-Panama border Sat morning, where=20
the front should stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong N=20
winds and building seas will follow the front through Sat before=20
winds begin to veer quickly NE to E and diminish modestly.=20
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N45W to 27N60W, then continues as a stationary front to=20
28N70W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of
this boundary. To the southeast, a surface trough runs=20
northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to 28N46W.=20
Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100=20
nm along either side of this feature. Farther east, convergent
southerly winds are producing scattered moderate convection
north of 23N between 38W and 43W. At the Tropical Atlantic,
another surface trough is inducing scattered moderate convection
from 09N to 16N between 44W and 51W. An upper-level low near
31N21W continues to trigger isolated thunderstorms near the Canary
Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and seas at 4 to 7
ft are evident north of 28N between 72W and the Florida-Georgia
coast. Farther east near the cold/stationary front mentioned
earlier, moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in
large NW swell dominate north of 26N between 35W and 72W. To the
south from 16N to 26N/28N between 35W and the Bahamas/Leeward
Islands, gentle E to SSE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate
northerly swell exist. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift north of
the area through early Thu, ahead of a stronger front entering
the waters off northeast Florida tonight, followed by fresh to
strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas. The front will reach
from 31N74W to central Cuba by Thu morning, from 31N68W to=20
eastern Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N61W to near the Windward
Passage on Sat morning. The front will stall in that general=20
vicinity and gradually dissipate through the end of the weekend.=20
Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of=20
the front north of 25N.=20
$$
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