NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Dec 8 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near Freetown, then runs westward to 07N16W. An ITCZ continues
southwestward from 07N16W through 04N30W to northwest of Belem,
Brazil at 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between the Liberia coast and
16W, and up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ east of 36W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front reaches westward from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to a 1018 mb low near Houston, Texas then turns
southwestward to north of Tampico. Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near these features over the
northwestern Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends
southwestward from a 1025 mb high over northern Florida to north
of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh S winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft are seen at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present from the Florida Straits to
north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the low near Houston will dissipate tonight.
Afterward, a strong cold front will move offshore Texas Tue, pass
quickly southeastward through the Gulf, and exit the region Wed
afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and
rapidly building seas can be expected. These hazardous conditions
will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the
northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the
week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers at the
eastern basin. Tight gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the
Bahamas and a 1008 low pressure over northwestern Colombia is
sustaining fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft across the central basin, including the Windward Passage.
Mostly fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident at the
western basin. Moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at
the eastern basin.
For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong winds will
prevail into Mon night. As the high pressure shifts eastward into
the central Caribbean, these winds will diminish to between
moderate and fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh
to strong winds will prevail. Looking ahead, a cold front may move
through the Yucatan Channel Wed, then into the northwestern basin
Wed night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N47W to 21N65W. Scattered moderate convection is found up
to 100 nm along either side of this feature. A pronounced upper-
level trough runs southward from near Madeira across 31N23W to
near 20N30W. Strong divergent winds east of this feature is
causing widely scattered moderate convection near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.
A 1025 mb high pressure near 29N72W is promoting gentle winds and
seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 28N between 60W and the
Georgia/northern Florida coast. Farther east and south near the
aforementioned cold front, moderate with locally fresh N to ENE
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found. Farther east, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of
20N between 35W and 50W/cold front. At the eastern Atlantic,
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north
of 17N between the Africa coast and 35W, including the Canary
Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands. gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from 04N to 20N between
the central Africa coast and 35W. To the west, moderate with
locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas exist from 04N to
20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall tonight,
then dissipate Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop
off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front that
will reach from 31N78W to Fort Pierce, Florida, by Wed afternoon,
and from 31N72W to western Cuba Wed night. Strong to near gale-
force N to NE winds and rough seas will rapidly build southward
behind the front through the end of the week.
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