Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One:=20
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 22.7N 93.8W at
19/0900 UTC or 230 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico, moving WNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are
covering a large area within 420 nm NE and 390 nm NW quadrants,
with peak seas near 16 ft. Areas of scattered moderate to strong=20
convection cover the waters W of 85W. Heavy rain from this system=20
is impacting portions of southern Mexico and northern portions of=20
Central America, and is starting to impact portions of Texas. The=20
system is forecast move on a westward path with increasing forward
speed today.=20

Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will=20
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce=20
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed=20
river flooding. Life- threatening flooding and mudslides are=20
likely in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican=20
states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the=20
cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of=20
Louisiana and Texas as well as northeastern Mexico through early=20
Thu. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and=20
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local=20
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!_yN67d4Uh3ABpHPtD3HfrfLgTJ4vsrmdvKcNbkkORxmc5Ut-SCH28wKHQjEHiR40E=
xxh4CfJJzMODTSzXjnUmwfXCVw$  and the latest=20
Public Advisory at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;=
!!DZ3fjg!_yN67d4Uh3ABpHPtD3HfrfLgTJ4vsrmdvKcNbkkORxmc5Ut-SCH28wKHQjEHiR40Ex=
xh4CfJJzMODTSzXjnU6NGnckI$  for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from=20
02N to 19N. The wave is moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt.=20
Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm east of the wave=20
axis.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 03N
to 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave originated in the
midlatitudes and moved southward to become embedded within the=20
tradewind easterlies. As typical for these tropical waves that
originate in the midlatitudes, it is embedded within dry air so
there is no significant convection noted at this time.=20

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W south=20
of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is
noted over the Caribbean waters in association with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 16N15W and continues
southwestward to 10N24W then to 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from=20
08N44W to 07N52W and then from 07N54W to 06N57W. Scattered=20
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N=20
between 23W and 47W, and from 07N to 09N between 43W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on=20
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is the main feature over the=20
basin. Aside from impacts discussed above, strong to near-gale
force winds cover much of the waters W of 85W, with fresh to
strong winds E of 85W. Seas of 8-12 ft cover much of the waters W
of 85W, with the exception of the waters S of 22N between the
Yucatan peninsula and 94W, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. E
of 85W, seas of 5-7 ft prevail.=20

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move to=20
22.7N 95.0W this afternoon, 22.7N 97.2W Thu morning, then inland=20
to 22.7N 100.0W Thu afternoon. Another broad area of low pressure=20
is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this=20
weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system through early next week while=20
it moves slowly west- northwestward or northwestward.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on=20
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and related impacts.=20

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One is resulting=20
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the=20
northwestern Caribbean. The circulation around the system is=20
supporting fresh to strong southeast winds in the northwestern=20
Caribbean, west of 83W. Stronger gusts are possible with the=20
strongest convection. Seas in this area are in the 6 to 9 ft=20
range. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and seas of 3 to 5 ft=20
cover much of the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds are expected across=20
the NW Caribbean through the remainder of the week before=20
dissipating this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades=20
over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh=20
speeds by Thu.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 28N58W to 26N67W to 21N69W.=20
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist in the=20
vicinity of the trough. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft
cover the waters N of 26N and W of 60W. Elsewhere, winds are
mainly in the gentle to moderate range, with seas of 4-6 ft. The
main exception is in the vicinity of the tropical wave in the
eastern Atlantic, where fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of
8-9 ft prevail.=20

For the forecast west of 55W, environmental conditions are=20
marginally conducive for some gradual development of the system=20
mentioned above during the next few days while it moves westward=20
or west- northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the=20
coast of the southeastern United States by the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and rough=20
seas will prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu. High=20
pres will build in the wake of the trough.=20

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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