Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/37W, from 14N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 13N between 
the tropical wave and 39W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W, from 13N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 09N to 13N between 
50W and 54W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of 
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N20W,  09N30W, and 09N34W. The 
ITCZ is along 09N38W 06N48W. Precipitation: scattered moderate 
to strong from 10N to 14N between 29W and 35W. Isolated moderate 
to locally strong is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W 
eastward. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the Yucatan 
Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of 
Mexico. 

A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico, passing 
through the Florida Panhandle into the central Gulf of Mexico. 
Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery 
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 22N northward from 90W westward. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 26N northward between 
Florida and the cold front. Isolated to widely scattered 
moderate and isolated strong covers the waters and land areas 
from Cuba to the NW Bahamas between 75W and 83W.

The current cold front, that is extending from the westernmost 
part of Florida to 25N91W, is expected to weaken and dissipate 
in the NE Gulf of Mexico through Friday. Fresh southerly winds 
ahead of the front will diminish overnight as the front weakens. 
A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on 
Monday evening. Gale-force winds are possible to the west of the 
front, near Veracruz in Mexico, on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from Bermuda to Guatemala.

A dissipating cold front passes from Hispaniola to SE Cuba. 
Precipitation: earlier widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong, in Hispaniola and in and around Cuba, has been weakening 
and dissipating with time, during the last few hours.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 73W in northern 
Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. 
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to 
the south of the monsoon trough between 72W and 79W, and from 
10N to 13N between 71W and 76W. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 70W westward.

An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola toward Nicaragua. 
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward 
Passage westward. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central 
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday, becoming strong near the coast of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds are expected elsewhere across most of the area. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is between 50W and 60W, from 25N 
northward. A cold front passes through 32N51W to a 1017 mb low 
pressure center that is near 23N63W. A dissipating cold front 
continues from the 1017 mb low center, to Hispaniola, and to SE 
Cuba. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and 
isolated strong within 250 nm to the E/SE of the frontal 
boundary, from the waters that are just off the NE Caribbean Sea 
islands northeastward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, 
with a large-scale ridge, covers the Atlantic Ocean, to the 
northwest of the cold front.

An upper level trough extends from the Madeira Archipelago, 
southwestward, for 1700 nm. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is 
within 600 nm on either side of trough. Precipitation: isolated 
moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level trough extends from a 23N49W cyclonic circulation 
center, for 600 nm toward the southwest. Upper level cyclonic 
wind flow is within 300 nm on either side of the trough. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the area of cyclonic wind 
flow.

High pressure, building to the north of the area, will support 
gentle to moderate winds across the area through Friday night. A 
surface trough will move westward north of the Greater Antilles
this weekend, and then weaken early next week.

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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