NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 08N to 14N and between 24W and 30W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south
of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 07N to 13N and between 30W and 38W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. A few showers are evident
near the trough axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W and
to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to
11N and between 39W and 49W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak surface trough in the western Gulf and divergence aloft
continues to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the trough and the northern Gulf waters. The Gulf
of Mexico is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic that extends westward into the basin. Moderate
to locally fresh NE-E winds are found off northern and western
Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters
through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over
the next several days. A weak high pressure cell will develop
over the eastern Gulf by Sun.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad upper level trough centered near the central Bahamas
induces scattered showers in the north-central Caribbean,
also affecting Jamaica and Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that winds to near gale-force are
occurring in association with the strongest convection. The basin
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the
islands. This ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds
over much of the central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters
are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of
4-7 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and
lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the western
Caribbean on Sat, reaching the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun. The
Atlantic ridge will build over the east and central Caribbean in
the wake of the wave. This pattern will support fresh to strong
trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the
middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis
through Sun with locally strong winds and rough seas across the
Gulf of Honduras Sun night.
Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an
approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some
development of this system will be possible while it approaches
the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week
and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles
toward the latter part of the week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad upper level low near the central Bahamas continues to
produce isolated showers over much of the SW North Atlantic,
especially west of 70W. The tropical Atlantic is under the
influence of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned over the
central Atlantic. Fresh easterly winds are found off northern
Hispaniola, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the far northeast
Atlantic, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are occurring
north of 25N and east of 20W, with the strongest winds affecting
the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are
5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will
dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several
days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off
the Carolina coast on Sat. The front will stall then dissipate
between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into MOn. The pattern
will support fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun,
and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead,
winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by
late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave.
Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather over the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an
approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some
development of this system will be possible while it approaches
the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week
and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles
toward the latter part of the week.
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