Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure is emerging over the southwestern Gulf=20
of Mexico and it continues to produce disorganized shower activity.=20
Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and=20
a tropical depression could form while the system moves=20
northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late today or=20
on Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to=20
move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of=20
development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone=20
development in the next 48 hours and within the next 5 days.=20
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ixRP4tlLT=
IPO7URfcfky-iXd3tB0T2XJ5-v_FCwUnUdFc28KWK9LYqgsN86qqqLEgp7L_Wsji9CuknX490ya=
puXEXo$   for more details.=20

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 26W from=20
02N-19N, moving westward about 10 kt. Scattered moderate=20
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 34W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 21N59W to
04N55W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and=20
isolated thunderstorms are noted over the northern portion of the
wave mainly N of 17N.

Another tropical wave extends its axis near 92W from 21N=20
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are=20
occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Please see the Special=20
Features section above for information on the potential for=20
tropical cyclone development of this system.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 20N16W to 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 11N55W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described
in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for potential
tropical cyclone development associated with a tropical wave in
the Bay of Campeche.

An outflow boundary extends across the NW Gulf mainly N of 27N and
W of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic
winds across most of the basin except over the Bay of Campeche,
where moderate easterly winds are noted. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail
across the basin.

For the forecast, the strong tropical wave over the western=20
Yucatan Peninsula will sustain showers and thunderstorms in the=20
Bay of Campeche through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced by an upper-level trough near central Cuba, convergent
trades are generating scattered showers south of Cuba and near=20
Hispaniola.=20

The Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from the 1028 mb Azores
High continues to channel NE to E trades across the entire basin.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the=20
south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern
basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft=20
prevail for the remainder of the basin, including the Gulf of=20
Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the region will=20
continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central=20
and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat, then gradually=20
weaken through Mon. A broad tropical wave will enter the eastern=20
Caribbean today, and the central Caribbean tonight/Sat.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves=20
moving across the basin.

A surface trough reaching northeastward from southwest Florida to
off the northern Florida coast is producing scattered showers=20
over the central Florida and the offshore waters east of northern
Florida. A robust upper-level low over the north-central Atlantic
at 31N47W is triggering scattered moderate convection north of=20
28N between 45W and 50W. A surface trough near 51W is causing=20
scattered showers from 14N to 17N between 50W and 54W.=20

Light to gentle SE to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas near the=20
Atlantic ridge related to the 1027 mb Azores High can be found=20
north of 25N between 45W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther=20
south, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft=20
are evident from 11N to 25N between 25W and the Bahamas. Near the
Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 6 to 8=20
ft are found north of 20N between the northwest African coast and=20
25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 6 to 9=20
ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic=20
Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging from the Azores High=20
to the Bahamas is expected to gradually shift northward to along=20
30N through Sat, then N of the area by Mon night. A frontal=20
boundary N of 30N will gradually lift northward through today=20
while weakening. Gentle to moderate easterly winds S of 25N will=20
reach moderate to fresh speeds through Sun as a tropical wave=20
moves across the eastern and central Caribbean.

$$
Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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