NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
Surface ridging north of the Caribbean will enhance E to NE
tradewinds to minimal gale force each night near the coast of
Colombia through Monday. Please read the High Seas Forecast
product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
morning. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz Mexico Saturday night and clear the basin past South
Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning. Winds to gale
force are forecast behind the front Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Please read the
High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
and extends to 03N20W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N-05N between 00W-15W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection are within 90 nm to 180 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are in
the vicinity of the ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge of high pressure covers the northeast and north-
central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough over the western Gulf of
Mexico is weakening. Isolated showers are over the SW Gulf of
Mexico. High pressure will dominate the basin through Friday.
Fresh to strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. A strong
cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
morning. It is likely that a line of showers and thunderstorms
will precede the front. The front will extend from the Florida
Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico Saturday night and exit the basin
past South Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning.
Winds to gale force are forecast behind the front Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico,
with winds of 30 kt covering the remainder of the Gulf. Seas in
the central Gulf will build to 9 to 13 ft Saturday night.
A surface trough extends over the Central Bahamas. Scattered
showers are observed near Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
GOES-16 satellite images show relatively higher amounts of
moisture over the northern Caribbean with dry air over the
Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Monday night. The winds along the immediate
coast of Colombia will reach gale force each night from tonight
through Monday night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean
Sea on Sunday and Monday, then stall and weaken. The front will
reach the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning, and then extend from
western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday night. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are expected behind the front.
A surface trough extends from 27N72W to the central Bahamas near
21N75W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A
cold front extends from across our border at 31N48W to 27N57W.
A stationary front extends from that point to a weak 1018 mb low
pressure centered at 26N60W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate
convection extends 180 nm east of the front north of 25N, in an
area where upper-level diffluence is prevalent. Surface trough
ahead of the front is near 30N48W to 23N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is within the axis of the trough and the proximity
of the cold front further east. Surface high pressure ridging
extends over most of the eastern half of the basin north of 17N.
Weak high pressure will drift E from the SE United States toward
Bermuda through Saturday afternoon. The winds will veer to the S,
and then strengthen from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
east of Florida. A strong cold front will push off the Florida
peninsula on Sunday morning. The front will extend from 31N79W to
29N81W on Sunday morning, and then extend from 31N74W to 27N74W to
the Windward Passage on Sunday night, from 27N65W to 20N70W on
Monday. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side
of the front N of 28N on Sunday and Monday.
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