NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to just south of the Equator at
30W, and continues to 01N42W and to just east of the coast of
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within
180 nm south of the trough between 15W-20W, and within 120 nm
north of the trough between 16W-20W, also within 60 nm north of
the ITCZ between 25W-32W and between 36W-43W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure ridging extends west-southwestward from a strong
1031 mb high center that is north of the area near 33N70W. A weak
1013 mb high center is inland southern Texas near 28N99W. The
ridge continues westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A
squall line is over the western Gulf from just south of Louisiana
near 29N92W, south-southwest to about 80 nm northeast of
Tampico, Mexico. Satellite imagery shows mostly scattered
moderate convection north of 26N between 89W and 94W. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to
strong east to southeast winds across the majority of the basin
as noted in the latest scatterometer satellite data passes.
Moderate to rough seas accompany these winds. Seas may be locally
rough across interior portions of the Gulf from 23N to 28N
between 85W and 95W.
For the forecast, a strong 1031 mb high centered between Cape
Hatteras and Bermuda this afternoon and extends a ridge westward
across the northern Gulf region. The pressure gradient is tight
enough to support fresh to strong east to southeast winds and
moderate to rough seas across most of the basin. An upper-level
low that is along the Texas coast is triggering a squall line
across the NW Gulf this afternoon between 92W and 95W, and will
shift eastward and weaken tonight. The surface high pressure will
drift slowly eastward across the western Atlantic through the
weekend, allowing winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
by Sat afternoon, with seas then subsiding below 8 ft by late
Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon, and
extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Tue morning
before dissipating.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Multiple scatterometer satellite data passes show fresh to
strong east winds over the just about the entire basin, with
the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. These winds
are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern
Colombia. Moderate seas are over the sea, with the exception of
locally rough seas off the coast of Colombia.
Satellite imagery shows isolated showers moving westward over
some sections of the western Caribbean. Isolated showers also
moving westward are seen north of 13N.
For the forecast, strong high pressure of 1031 mb centered
between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda will drift slowly eastward
through the weekend, and combine with the Colombian low to
support winds pulsing to near gale force at night and during the
early morning hours offshore of Colombia through Mon morning.
Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba in the Windward Passage
will persist through Sat morning. Similar wind speeds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through
early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean Sat evening
through Mon morning. Large east swell will impact the Tropical
Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed,
building seas 8 to 10 ft.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is analyzed from near 31N54W to 24N60W and to
just north of the coast of Hispaniola 20N70W. Satellite imagery
shows scattered showers and thunderstorms within 90 to 120 nm
east of the front north of 26N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm southeast of the front from
22N to 26N. Fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to
rough seas dominate the waters west of the trough/front. An area
of northeast winds to near gale-force is embedded within
these winds from 23N to 25N between 68W and 72W.
The front breaks up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic,
anchored by a 1031 mb high center that is about halfway between
Bermuda and Cape Hatteras, and a 1030 mb high center that is
well northeast of the region near 38N33W. This pattern supports
fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas across
much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and
60W. Outside of this large region, northeast to winds are
moderate to locally fresh with prevailing moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure of 1031 mb
centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda will drift slowly
eastward through the weekend, as the front moves SE and gradually
weakens, and becomes E to W aligned along about 22N-23N by late
Sat. Expect fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building
seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will start to
decrease Sat night through Sun as the high pressure shifts
eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week.
Another cold front will move off the southeastern United States
coast by early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by
early Wed.
$$
|
