Tropical Weather Discussion

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Tropical Weather Discussion (NHC/TPC):
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1720 UTC.


Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico and
western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details 
on the special features mentioned below.


As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from south Florida near
25N81W to S of Veracruz Mexico near 18N94W. 45 kt northerly gale 
force winds are from 19N-23N between 95W-97W including within 60 
nm of Veracruz Mexico. Seas are 12-16 ft. The gale is forecast to 
end 22/0600 UTC Fri night. Another area of 35 kt north-northeast
gale force winds are within 19N-23N and W of 96W near Tampico
Mexico. Seas are 8 to 10 ft. These gales are forecast to end by
21/1800 UTC Fri afternoon. 


As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 
31N71W to south Florida near 26N80W. 40 kt north-northeast gale 
force winds are on both sides of the front north of 28N between 
71W- 81W with seas 8-18 ft, building to 20 ft by this evening. 
Gale force winds ahead of the front will end by 22/0000 UTC and
gales behind the front will end by 22/0600 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra 
Leone near 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 
00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. The strongest convection is along the monsoon trough from
02N-07N and E of 15W.


As of 21,1500 UTC, the cold front extends from south Florida near
25N81W to 21N92W to S of Veracruz Mexico near 18N94W. High 
pressure is quickly building behind the cold front. Across most of
the Gulf, low clouds are seen with scattered showers near the 
front. The latest scatterometer data depicts gale force northerly
winds behind the front, S of 24 N and W of 96W. Across the rest 
of the basin, strong northerly winds are seen behind the front 
throughout the northern and central Gulf. Seas are up to 16 ft in 
the SW Bay of Campeche with seas ranging 6 to 12 ft across the 
rest of the Gulf. 

The cold front will pass to the SE of the Gulf by this evening. 
Behind the front N gales near Tampico will weaken to strong winds 
around noon, while and NW gales near Veracruz will end late this 
evening. High pres centered over Texas will shift E to the western
Atlc by Mon. Another cold front will move across the western Gulf
Mon night through Tue night. 


A 1015 mb low is analyzed in the Windward Passage near 20N73W 
with a trough extending south of the low to 17N76W. Mid level 
troughing is beginning to pull away from the Lesser Antilles as
mid to upper-level ridging continues to stay in place in the
northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are seen moving across the
Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong winds N 
of Colombia with fresh winds in the central and SW Caribbean. 
Gentle to moderate trades are seen elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 9 ft. 

A cold front will bring strong N winds and higher seas to the NW 
Caribbean later today, then push into the central Caribbean this 
weekend, before stalling and dissipating early next week. High 
pressure will build back over the W Atlc in the wake of this 


As of 21/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 
31N71W to south Florida near 26N80W. A pre-frontal trough is 
analyzed across the Bahamas to northern Cuba, from 30N70W to 
25N77W to 22N80W. Showers are seen along the cold front with 
thunderstorms near the pre-frontal trough from 27N-31N between 
68W-72W. The latest scatterometer data showed gale force winds 
along both sides of the front N of 29N between 69W-78W. Seas are 
up to 14 ft in the western Atlantic. 

Elsewhere, a surface trough associated with an upper level low is
analyzed near 15N56W to 24N56W. Showers are seen near this
feature. A cold front is dropping south across the Canary Islands
from 31N15W to 26N23W to 31N33W. Showers are moving along the
front N of 28N and E of 16W. 

The cold front will continue moving SE and stretch from SE of 
Bermuda across the central Bahamas and into central Cuba by this 
evening. The front will then reach eastern Hispaniola by late Sat,
then will weaken as it nears Puerto Rico Mon. N of 29N, Gale 
force SW winds are likely ahead of the front until this evening. 
Behind the front, N gales and seas of up to 20 feet are 
anticipated N of 28N through tonight. The swell associated with 
these gales will spread SE through the weekend while gradually 
decaying. The next cold front will enter the NW waters Tue night.

Graphical representation of waves, etc. on this image (NCEP/OPC) [more].
Various tropical satellite imagery available here

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