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- Three to One
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 15 Sep 2019 07:40:54 -0400
Yesterday when I did the post, there were 3 areas of concern out to our East, this morning there is only 1 (as I write). I t has a 10% and 60% chance of developing in 2 and 5 days. It is approaching half way across the Atlantic. Let's hope it dissipates, like the others, before it reaches our shores. But it is allowed to bring some rain!

Another sunny morning, just a few clouds and the slightest of Easterly breeze. There is a band of clouds, showing on radar, coming in from the East (currently between us and Barbados), but they look as though they are breaking up. This seems to be coming from the back end of a tropical wave which has given the Leeward islands some rain Is it just possible that we may get the odd shower later? Wishful thinking!

Have a nice Sunday - I think a dip in the sea at Grand Anse, to cool off!

Hogan




- Three weather systems in Atlantic....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 14 Sep 2019 07:35:19 -0400
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

At time of including the link above, there were three areas of concern in the Atlantic. Unless it has changed, the Easterly one is the one to watch with 60% chance of developing and furthest to run.

Hardly a cloud in the sky and no rain showing in the Windwards, but I see showers in the Leewards.

Looks like another day without rain!

Sorry to keep this brief, but work to be done.

Hogan



- The hoped for rain - doesn't look like any today!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 13 Sep 2019 06:45:21 -0400
The Tropical wave which is now approaching the Lesser Antilles (Ex 94L) has some showers getting near the Leeward island, but yet again, nothing to show on radar or satellite images for us in the Windwards.

95L has become TD Nine as it moves over the Bahamas, predicted path similar to that of Dorian. Could become a Tropical Storm over the already destroyed Northern islands. They could do without that!

Out in the Atlantic - there are two areas of concern. The first, the one we have been watching for a few days, is almost half way across the Atlantic and has a 40% chance of developing in 5 days. The second one is just passing South of the Gabo Verdes with a 20% chance in next 5 days.

Looking out, it looks like another day similar to yesterday and the day before and ........     Few clouds, slightly hazy and a pleasant breeze.

I noticed a StormCarib report for Grenada yesterday from Richie P 'realwedda', welcome and hopefully someone with more knowledge than I have - keep the reports coming.

Hogan



- No sign of rain
  • By Richie P <realwedda at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2019 11:49:36 -0700
It seems like the combination of Sahara dust and wind shear from the upper level winds are preventing us from getting much needed rain. It's really hot outside. I need some water in my taps too.


- 94L no longer mentioned on NHC website.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2019 07:11:02 -0400
It appears that the threat of a tropical depression from the tropical wave we have been watching is no longer a threat. The tropical wave is still approaching, but due to dry Sahara dust and adverse high level winds, it has been reduced to a few showers, most of which appear to be moving more towards the Northern Lesser Antilles. Just maybe, we will get some rain tomorrow from this wave? Hope!

The other tropical wave, now just West of the Gabo Verdes, is now at 40% chance of developing in 5 days.

Today looks, like most days recently, no sign of rain on radar nor satellite images. Just a few low clouds and some wispy high cloud.

Hogan



- 94L the tropical wave we have been following for a week...
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 11 Sep 2019 07:34:32 -0400
94L is now about 800 miles West of us, but looks as if, what there is of it, will move up to the Northern end of the Leeward Islands. NHC still has it at 20% chance of developing in bot 2 and 5 days.

The next tropical wave, behind 94L, is South of Gabo Verdes the other side of the Atlantic. This is a week away, but needs monitoring. It currently has a 20% chance (NHC) of developing in next 5 days.

The two photos are worth many words - They are taken looking North and South, just a few minutes ago. Radar and satellite images show very little weather in our area - looks like more of the same. Temperature, at 07:00 was 29C (airport) with just a slight Easterly breeze. Plants are drooping!

Have a nice day.

Hogan


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- 94L (the wave) seems to be disintegrating ...
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 10 Sep 2019 08:16:01 -0400
Tropical wave, invest 94L, now down to 20% chance of developing in next 2 & 5 days. All tracks show it going North of Grenada. But still need to watch it, along with the one following which is SE of the Cabo Verdes which has a 20% chance of developing in next 5 days.

Had a small shower yesterday evening, enough to close windward facing windows, but stopped shortly after it started.

There are no showers showing on the radar to our east (again), that is in an area bordered by Barbados - Tobago - Grenada.

There are a few low clouds around also a vale of high cloud making a hazy Sun. There is a pleasant easterly breeze. Looks like another low chance of rain.

For interest, my understanding of  Tropical Wave is a 'trough' of relatively lower pressure, found between the high pressure (Azores High) to the North and the Low pressure to the South (area of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ). As per the one that has just gone through, it can be very weak, or they can have plenty of storms, which can build into a tropical depression etc. Tropical waves generally move westward, that is why I am always saying we should look to our East for the weather.

Have a good day

Hogan




- Is this the rainy season?
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Sep 2019 13:40:07 -0400
Please remind me, is this the rainy season???

Hogan


- More chance of rain today?
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 9 Sep 2019 07:34:38 -0400
When I started looking this morning, I thought there was a better chance of rain today. The radar had many blips to our East, and looking out I could see a shower approaching.

But since then the radar blips have decreased and the shower only brought a few drops. But did leave a lovely rainbow that ended exactly where the Mangrove Hideaway is. Sorry it had gone by the time I got my camera!

There is a weak tropical wave approaching (not the one I have mentioned for several days, see below), so just maybe we could get some well needed rain? The garden needs it.

The tropical wave (now about 1330 miles due East of us is still in the low expectation of developing - 2 day 20%, 5 days 30% chance). Assuming a movement of about 13mph, then it will be in the Lesser Antilles in about 4-5 days. Currently the early track models have complete spread, showing it arriving anywhere in the island chain and the strength any thing from not much at all to a tropical storm. Tomorrow may give us more info?

A last look out and I would say there are more and bigger clouds out to the East than seen recently. Let's hope for some rain.

Hogan



- Weather looks the same...
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 8 Sep 2019 06:37:30 -0400
Very little chance of rain, hardly any breeze.

Tropical wave, approaching mid Atlantic, has been down rated to 40% in 5 days. Still no good tracks being put out.

Hardly any low cloud, even over the mountains, but plenty of high wispy clouds, making the Sun hazy.

Hogan


- The tropical wave ....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 Sep 2019 07:00:29 -0400
The NHC are now giving it 10% in two days and 60% in 5 days - both down on yesterdays forecast. Current position is about 30W 14N. About 2000 miles East of us.

No rain blips on radar, only a few small clouds around, slightly hazy.  Just a slight Easterly breeze. Westerhall Bay has picked up some more Sargasso seaweed over night.

This is like being in the dry season!

Hogan



- Still awaiting to see what is happening in East Atlantic.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 6 Sep 2019 08:35:17 -0400
With Dorian scraping just offshore of North Carolina, compared to Bahamas they are getting off lightly. The news from Grand Bahama just gets worse.

The tropical wave over the other side of the Atlantic is just passing South of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is showing (NHC) that it has a 20% chance of developing in 2 days and 70%  in the next 5 days (the Lesser Antilles are about 7 days away, assuming 15mph). So our eyes, as always, should look East.

A few clouds around. Not much of a breeze, and not expecting much breeze today. There are no blips on radar within a triangle Grenada- Barbados- Tobago. Looks like a low chance of rain (this as usual does not apply to areas affected by the mountains).

Have a nice day.

Note: As I often say, I am not an expert, all I do is try to gather data from many other websites and give a best guess. As many of you know, and my wife often reminds me, I do get it wrong!

Hogan






- A bit late today....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 5 Sep 2019 13:51:55 -0400
I am late as I wanted to see what was happening. So:

1) The system that left Africa yesterday is 50% chance of developing in 5 days. 10% in 2 days. It is halfway between the African Coast and Cabo Verdes. Heading in a Westward direction - Needs keeping an eye on over the next week.

2) There is a small system with low chance of developing - 500 miles East of the Leewards.

3) Dorian is currently 40 miles East of the Coast near Charleston, South Carolina. Looks as if it could scrape bits of North Carolina.

There are very few bits on the radar or satellite images to indicate any significant rain this afternoon. Very warm again.

Hogan




- Now we must tun our eyes to the East.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 4 Sep 2019 08:16:20 -0400
With Dorian having left complete devastation in Grand Bahama Island and currently looks as if it may stay out to sea. Our attention is back to the African coast, where a new system is about to emerge. I will keep my eye on this one.

We currently have 3 named storms in the Atlantic region: Dorian, Fernand (near Mexico) and Gabrielle (NW of Gabo Verdes).

Looking out it is a mostly clear blue sky, albeit slightly hazy horizon. Just a few bubbly clouds over the mountains.

The only rain/clouds showing on radar and satellite are way out to the East of T&T. It looks like it will be a lovely day, but I think I said something like that yesterday!!!

Hope you have a nice day.

Hogan


- Sunset cloud yesterday evening and new beach this morning!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Sep 2019 06:58:13 -0400
Sorry, I sent previous post by mistake....  The photos were of a lovely sunset cloud last night. And the beach is yet another mass of Sargasso Seaweed in the bay.

Dorian has still hardly moved and is still battering Grand Bahama Island - I don't think anyone can imagine what they are going through, flooding and hurricane winds for over 24 hours.

I was woken up by lightening and thunder at about 5am. Actually I was woken by an elbow in the ribs telling me there was a storm. I never saw the lightening, but was now awake for the clap of thunder. Then a few heavy drops of rain on the roof. That was the end of that storm.

There is a lot of cloud around and I can see the odd shower approaching from the East. The mountains are shrouded in cloud and rain. The radar shows scattered showers, so I think we can expect some showers.

As for the Atlantic, not much has changed since yesterday. There is still a concern of something coming off of Africa in the next few days.



Hogan

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- Sunset cloud yesterday evening and new beach this morning!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 3 Sep 2019 06:53:05 -0400
Dorian has still hardly moved and is still battering Grand Bahama Island - I don't think anyone can imagine what they are going through, flooding and hurricane winds for over 24 hours.

I was woken up by lightening and thunder at about 5am. Actually I was woken by an elbow in the ribs telling me there was a storm. I never saw the lightening, but was now awake for the clap of thunder. Then a few heavy drops of rain on the roof. That was the end of that storm.

There is a lot of cloud around and I can see the odd shower approaching from the East. The mountains are shrouded in cloud and rain. The radar shows scattered showers, so I think we can expect some showers.

As for the Atlantic, not much has changed since yesterday. There is still a concern of something coming off of Africa in the next few days.

Hogan

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- Atlantic getting busy
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 2 Sep 2019 09:08:17 -0400
Hi all,

Sorry for being a bit late this morning.

Hurricane Dorain is slowly creeping across Grand Bahama. Worst of all scenario, low land, warm ocean all around, and slow moving and a Cat 5.  The people there must be terrified and wondering when it will move on. The slowing down seems to be due to it's imminent turn to the North, which I am sure everyone along the SE coast of the US must be praying for. The latest forecast track is for it to be 35 miles off shore near Cape Canaveral (hope they have tied their rockets down well). About 76 miles off the coast near Jacksonville. About 57 miles off the coast near Charleston. Let's hope it does not go closer to the coast as was forecast a few days ago.

The NHC now has 5 areas of concern in the Atlantic area. The one I have mentioned for the last few days is now West of the Cabo Verdes and looks like it will go North-West into the Atlantic. Behind that is an area of concern awaiting a tropical wave to come off of Africa. Early indications are that will have a more Westerly direction. I will keep an eye on that over the next few days.

The others are no threat to our area.

The radar shows only the smallest of blips to our East. It looks like a low chance of rain today. But an area of havier cloud is further out to the East, which could bring a bigger chance of rain tomorrow???

Have a nice day and do think of our friends in Grand Bahama.

Hogan


- Dorain about to cause havoc in Northern islands of the Bahamas
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 1 Sep 2019 06:54:33 -0400
Dorain is now a major hurricane. And what is worse is it is slowing down. It is now predicted to slow right down as it approaches Grand Bahama island, before changing direction North along the South Eastern coasts  of the USA, about 50-60 miles out in the Ocean. For Florida and Georgia, this is much better than earlier forecast tracks.

The Tropical wave, I mentioned yesterday, is in the area of the southern Cabo Verdes. It does appear that this will go towards the NW and stay in the Atlantic Ocean and not come near us.

As yesterday, there are a few scattered showers out to our East. It is bright and sunny, with quite a few fluffy clouds in all directions.

Have a great day.

Hogan


- At last some over night rain (here in the South)
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 31 Aug 2019 07:18:57 -0400
Now we don't have to worry about the plants for a few days. One shower has just finished. Lots of cloud around, but the sun is shining. Difficult to see what is coming due to the low sun, but the radar and satellite images show a bit more cloud (maybe rain) to come this morning.

The weather system I mentioned yesterday, just off of the East coast of Africa, is now at 50% chance of developing in the next 5 days. The early indications are that it will go North-West, but these are early predictions.

Over night the predicted tracks for Dorian, show it turning North earlier and travelling up the Easter coasts of Florida and Georgia, but now just out in the Ocean. Hopefully not so bad.

Hogan


- A yellow X coming off the East coast of Africa
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 30 Aug 2019 07:26:27 -0400
Good morning,

This mornings chart of the Atlantic shows a weather system coming off the African coast which has 20% chance of developing within 5 days.

The forecast track of Dorain has moved slightly South and has it hitting Florida just North of West Palm Beach, close to a place called Jupiter. Cape Canaveral is closing down until Dorain passes.

It looks like another hot day with light winds and only a small chance of a shower. There are a few small radar blips out to our East, but nothing significant.

Just a slight breeze. Skt clear to the West, clouds over the mountains to the North, jus bubbly clouds to the East and South. Slightly hazy sky.

Hogan


- Atlantic to our East is quiet
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Aug 2019 06:57:19 -0400
Except for Dorain, having caused damage in the St Thomas area, has now gone into the Atlantic. It looks like it will circle North of most of the Bahamas before heading for Florida. This is a bit of a strange course for a hurricane, but then Dorain started life strangely, not from a tropical wave but from a Low pressure which formed in the Monsoon trough between two opposing wind directions.

It looks a lovely morning, the Sun rose very red, I don't know if that has any significance? A bit hazy. Radar shows a scattered line of showers about 90 miles away heading in our direction.

Hopefully another fine day, with our gentle Easterly breeze. A chance of the odd rain shower?

Hogan


- Beautiful morning....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2019 06:47:04 -0400
Good morning,

Lovely morning, I thought, Blue sky, slight breeze. Went out to feed the fish when I heard a distant rumble of thunder. Looking North the sky was black with a large cloud building up over the island. Looked at the radar and satellite I see a large blob over the North of the island. Guess it is raining up North. Still lovely and sunny down here.

Dorain has turned slightly and is now heading towards the Eastern end of Puerto Rico, still a Tropical Storm.

The Atlantic to our East is quiet - unlike the rumbling I am hearing coming from up North. What's it like a Petty Anse - Phil?

Hogan



- No breeze this evening
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2019 19:37:49 -0400
Well I was right about the wind direction, but we haven't had anything other than gentle breeze, at the best.

Hopefully the breeze will pick up a bit over night and should swing round to a South-easterly direction. I am hoping some of the trailing bands of clouds may bring a little rain to cool us down, but that might be wishful thinking..

The stories from Barbados and ST Lucia weren't too bad.

Have a pleasant evening.

Hogan


- Dorain - just approaching Hewenora St Lucia (Very South)
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2019 06:26:27 -0400
Hi all,

No wind here over night. The only high wind speed recorded at the airport was at 6pm (1800) yesterday, about the time of that photo I posted of the pretty cloud. That was probably a down draft.

Dorain passed right through Barbados, but the highest reported sustained wind was 38mph, which is just under Tropical Storm force, but they did record much stronger gusts.

Dorain is just going through the southern part of St Lucia. So far no strong winds reported from Hewenora airport. Although the last report had thunderstorms.

Just looked outside. There is just a slight breeze coming onto our West facing veranda. The boats at anchor are all facing North. The sky is dark (high) cloud to the North, which coincides with the Satellite imagery of the outer part of Dorain. To the South, there are a few clouds in an otherwise blue sky. A bit of high cloud in the direction of sunrise.

Dorain, up to now, has not approached the dreaded Cat 1 status. I think we will still get the Westerly, followed by the Southerly breeze as the day progresses. I feel it will be a nice day with the chance of rain showers, maybe the odd heavy one, although nothing showing on the radar, yet. As I finish, the wind chime has started to rattle, and a pleasant North-Westerly breeze has started and the boats have swung round to that direction.

Have a nice day. And hope all is well in St Lucia and beyond.

Hogan


- Dorain goes North of track
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Aug 2019 20:47:43 -0400
The latest update from NHC shows TS Dorain has suddenly moved North, just before getting to Barbados. But the minimum pressure seems to have risen, so appears to have weakened a bit. The track now goes through the middle of the island. Hopefully this will mean the more heavily populated may not get hit with as strong winds as the North.  Despite moving North, the track still takes Dorain between St Vincent and St Lucia, or maybe they haven't updated that bit of the track.

Here we had a pretty cloud just off to the SW at sunset. Now the wind has dropped to zero. I am expecting this lack of breeze to change over night to pick up from a more Westerly, then Southerly direction during Tuesday. The radar shows that Dorain does not seem to have much rain outside the central area. It looks like Barbados is getting a fair amount. We may get away with only a few showers. The garden could do with more. All the best to our friends in Barbados and later St Lucia/St Vincent.

Hogan

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- Quick update
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Aug 2019 12:01:51 -0400
Beginning to get overcast. Satellite and radar are showing outer bands of Dorain are beginning to sweep in over Grenada. Have just seen the build-up of clouds, and I think rain, over Point Saline peninsular. This often happens when there is little wind. Dorain is almost following yesterday's predicted track. It looks like the centre of the storm will pass just a few miles South of Barbados. The pressure has started to drop at Barbados airport. Still constant here.

I can see some showers approaching from the East.

Hogan


- Dorain
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 26 Aug 2019 05:55:53 -0400
Good morning,

The latest on Dorain is that it will pass just a few miles South of Barbados just after midnight tonight. Then through the gap between St Lucia and St Vincent about 9am Tuesday. This will be about the same time as it's closest point to Grenada at about 120 miles. Provided it remains on the predicted track, we shouldn't get very strong winds, but will get 'wrong way winds'. People with West facing veranda's will notice this. Currently Dorain does not have much in the way of rain, at this distance from it's centre, on it's southern half. It is currently about 350 miles due East and at about our latitude of 12N.

It is just getting light, there appears to be more clouds around than yesterday. There are a couple of small showers visible to the east. A few small, scattered blips on the radar. There is no breeze and temperature is 27C.

Hogan



- Update on Dorian
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2019 19:51:27 -0400
I have had a great hot day at the beach. So now bringing my self and you , up to date with Dorian.

Although Dorian is still following the path suggested earlier, the predicted track has now moved slightly South. The centre line of Drain now passes about 14 miles South of Barbados then on to just North of St Vincent. This is now a good 60 miles South of the first predictions.

This now puts Grenada just on the edge of a Tropical Storm Watch. Let's see what tomorrow morning brings.

Hot day here, 32C at the airport, but not as hot as Heathrow in London, which reached 33C. But the sea was refreshingly cool.

Hogan


- Two days to go for Dorain
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 25 Aug 2019 05:54:54 -0400
Dorain is just over 700 miles East of us at 11N 51.6W. It is just South of yesterday's forecast path, putting Barbados, followed by St Lucia, almost directly in it's current track. But with two days to go this can change.

I will monitor it's progress.

The Sun hasn't risen yet, but the sky is fairly clear, just a few low clouds (many more over the mountains). It is hazy. A slight Easterly Breeze. Temperature (airport) 27C (81F). It has been another warm night.

Have a good day, and maybe time to look around at things that could be blown around. If not for this one, then maybe another. Be prepared.

Hogan


- 99L - TD5 - Now TS Dorian
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2019 17:23:31 -0400
This is picking up faster than predicted a couple of days ago.

Model tracks still have it passing in the area of St Lucia.

Hogan




- Tropical Depression 5
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2019 14:07:53 -0400
99L has become TD5. Expected to make Tropical Storm strength before reaching the islands.

The expected path is expected to pass just North of Barbados then between Martinique and St Lucia. Update tomorrow morning, or earlier if things change.

Hogan


- 99L - latest models
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 24 Aug 2019 06:57:04 -0400
The 99L system has remained at 10.1 degs North over night, but moved closer.

The models are split between it being a Tropical Depression and a Tropical Storm by Tuesday/Wednesday when it passes. The consensus of models appear to have it passing through the Lesser Antilles about halfway up the chain. Clipping Barbados on it's approach? I will wait a couple of days before giving my opinion on how it will affect Grenada.

At these times everyone in the Caribbean is wishing these things pass somewhere else, but then we also don't wish them on anyone else.

At the moment 99L does not look like a beast, but let's hope it stays that way.

This morning, hardly a breeze, again. Lovely small clouds to the South (photo) and East. Clear Blue sky to the West. And the usual clouds just clipping the tops of the highest of the mountains.

Have a good day.

Hogan

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- I spoke too soon.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2019 11:39:38 -0400
This morning when I said 'still nothing significant' I had noticed that the NHC had a "L" Low pressure marked mid Atlantic. But I thought I would ignore that for a while. Well that 'while' was very short! The NHC are now giving ,what is now labelled 99L a 10% chance of developing into a cyclone in the next 48 hours and 20% in 5 days. It is about 1200 miles East of us at 9.8deg North so can be expected in this area in about 3-4 days. There are very few path predictions at the moment, what there are show it spread anywhere in the Lesser Antilles, but with a bigger chance of going to the North.

Current position is approx 9.8N 41.7W

More tomorrow.

Hogan


- We still seem to be in similar conditions.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2019 07:11:52 -0400
The Atlantic is quiet - two tropical waves. Still nothing significant.

Very little to say about today's weather, it looks similar to the last few days. Maybe a few more blips on the radar, to our East?

Looking out, there is no sign (at the moment) of any showers. The tops of the mountains are visible with clouds hovering over them. Just a slight Easterly breeze.

Hogan


- Chantal, Tropical Storm in North Atlantic
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 21 Aug 2019 06:38:05 -0400
This is of no threat to us, and is the third named storm of the year. It is just south of the coast of Newfoundland and heading East across the Atlantic.

Apart from that, the Atlantic is quiet. There is a very weak tropical wave passing through the northern part of the Lesser Antilles, also a tropical wave many days away the other side of the Atlantic.

The radars show just the odd blip in our area. One website, that I view, shows us as expecting hardly any breeze today.

There are a few more fluffy clouds than yesterday. Unless the wind picks up, my guess is there could be a build-up of bigger clouds over the island which could result in a some some showers, possibly heavy?

Another hot day with little breeze?

Hogan


- Another short one....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Aug 2019 19:42:37 -0400
7:40pm Hot and no breeze! Ahhhhhrg

Not good for sleep tonight!

Hogan


- Shortest ever.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 20 Aug 2019 07:03:27 -0400

Little wind, small chance of rain. Atlantic quiet. Similar to yesterday.

Hogan


- Weather looks good.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 19 Aug 2019 06:20:26 -0400
Very little to say about the weather today. Radar and satellite images show the area to be clear. Guess rain can always bubble up at any time. But generally looks good. Looking out there are some hazy wisps of high cloud and a few scattered low fluffy bits. The mountains have a thin veil of cloud hiding the tops. Just a slight easterly breeze.

The Atlantic is still quiet, only the one weak tropical wave about half way across.

Yesterday did a trip round the island, the rain kept off apart from a short shower during Sunday BBQ lunch at Petite Anse. The views from there were reasonably clear (apart from during the shower). Carriacou and even Union Island, hazy, but visible.

Have a great day.

Hogan


- Looks like a fairly good day today.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2019 06:11:18 -0400
The Atlantic is still quiet. Just one weak tropical wave about mid ocean.

Very few blips on the radar, and the satellite images show a clear area to our East.

Hardly any breeze as I write.

The horizon is clear, a few fluffy clouds. Dare I say, it looks like a nice day.

Hogan



- Tropical wave passing through today
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 17 Aug 2019 07:11:27 -0400
The tropical Wave I mentioned yesterday is passing through the area. It could bring some rain. A small shower has just passed.

The radar and satellite images do show an area of rain/cloud to our SE and East. But looking out this appears to be mostly high cloud.

Light Easterly winds are forecast.

The rest of the Atlantic remains quiet, for now. There is another wave, just West of the Capo Verde islands.

Hogan


- Tropical wave due late Saturday early Sunday
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 16 Aug 2019 07:27:32 -0400
Very hazy today - I cannot see the horizon. There is a slight Easterly breeze. The radar* and satellite images show very few cloud/rain in the area, at the present time.

* Radar comes from Martinique and Trinidad. Martinique, being 170+ milesaway only sees the highest of rain showers (as radar can't see over the horizon) and the Trinidad radar at about 100 miles away, much nearer but has a range of mountains, which must give limited view of low altitude clouds. Unfortunately the Barbados radar appears to have been not working for some time, "BMS still awaiting return of RF front-end component from manufacturer", at 150(ish) miles from us did used to provide good cover to our east.

The Atlantic still quiet today, apart from two tropical waves. One is just off the African coast, the other is due to arrive in our area later tomorrow. Currently the wave is weak, but has significant moderate to heavy showers within it, where it is causing the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to bulge north. Some web sites are predicting a good chance of rain as this system passes. We will hopefully get a better idea tomorrow morning.

The ITCZ is an area where the Southern hemisphere  S-Easterly Trade winds meet the Northern N-Easterly trade winds, with nowhere else to go they tend to create a band of rain and storms. This area moves further North at this time of year. It is currently shown at about 10degs N across the Atlantic (apart from the bulge I mentioned above). On a synoptic chart ( such as: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_06Z.gif ) you will also notice Monsoon Trough - As best I can find out they are almost the same thing.

As I was about to post this, we have just had a slight shower. Also in the haze it looks like some darker clouds are approaching. also a couple of blips on Trini radar, maybe take back what I said about them.

Have a good day.

Hogan


- A storm passing South of Grenada
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 15 Aug 2019 06:15:59 -0400
At 06:00 there is a storm passing just South of Grenada. There is a slight Easterly breeze. Plenty of high cloud. The radar and satellite images show more heavy cloud to our East, these could bring more heavy showers or thunder this morning.

The Atlantic is still quiet, with only one tropical wave just our side of mid Atlantic.

Hogan


- Looks like rain,
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 14 Aug 2019 10:09:51 -0400
Sky dark to the East. Radar and satellite images show clouds coming from the East. This is as a small tropical wave has just passed through.

Atlantic still quiet.

Hogan


- The Atlantic is still quiet.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2019 07:56:06 -0400
Good morning,

Commancheros (the most entertaining band), came 2nd to New Dimension at Panorama.  Well done to both bands.  But my congratulations go to the band that brought the stadium, if not the judges, to life!

There was a couple of small showers during the show, but it didn't stop or spoil the event.

There are only a couple of tropical waves in the Atlantic as of this morning, according to NHC Synoptic chart. One, although you wouldn't notice it, is passing through the area this morning, A few showers further up the chain. Here just a few scattered clouds. There is a lovely breeze.

Let us hope that this spell of dry weather lasts until end of Carnival (Tuesday).

Hogan



- Few showers around
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2019 08:55:24 -0400
There is a weak wave approaching. But the radar only shows a few showers.

We have had a couple of heavy showers this morning, but hoping there will be less this afternoon for Panorama. At least we should have a pleasant Easterly breeze.

Hogan


- Looks like another hot day with only a slight easterly breeze.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 9 Aug 2019 07:22:09 -0400
The Atlantic is still quiet, so far.

Just a slight Easterly breeze. A few fluffy clouds, except over the mountains, where they look a bit darker.

Looks like a few more days similar to this.  I guess there is always a chance of a small shower.

Have a great day and weekend. Hope rain keeps off for the rest of Carnival - we are off to Panorama Saturday.

Hogan


- Apart from a few showers , the rain predicted yesterday - missed us.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Aug 2019 06:51:02 -0400
The overnight rain predicted by other websites (and me) missed Grenada. It passed North of us.

On the whole, the Atlantic looks fairly quiet, at the moment. A weak wave about 950 miles to our East, and another wave leaving the West Coast of Africa.

Two photos this morning contrast the view East(multilayered veils of cloud) and West (fairly clear with the Sun hitting the top of a billowing cloud). South is a thicker layer of medium high cloud, which could possibly bring a few drops of rain (guess). Radar shows this moving north towards us.

No predictions from me for today. With 3 out of 3 almost completely wrong. But I am hoping for the slight Easterly breeze to return.

Must get tickets for Panorama today!

Hogan


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- Tropical wave approaching
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 7 Aug 2019 08:44:45 -0400
Having got the last two days wrong, well more like right, but in the wrong order, I will try again.

The one thing I did get right was the light winds. This looks as if it will continue today. One of the web sites I monitor shows increasing cloud and rain starting this evening. This is due to a tropical wave just East of us. Looking at the satellite images, it appears to have plenty of clouds/rain on the leading edge of the wave. I will probably be wrong (as usual), but I think we could get some heavy showers earlier than this evening. Data from Barbados shows they have already had some rain overnight. And the radar show numerous echoes east of a line from Tobago to St Lucia.

Currently there is no breeze, the boats at anchor in the bay are pointing in all directions. Almost 100% high cloud cover. A shower is visible just South of the airport. Clouds just scraping the tops of the mountains.

Have a great day.

Hogan

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- Having got it wrong yesterday let's have nother go.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 6 Aug 2019 07:24:47 -0400
It was a hot and humid night, with no breeze to speak of - floor fan blowing full on me. Minimum temp last night (per airport) was 27C (81F). Humidity reached 90% during the night - currently 84%.

We  have just had a heavy shower, and looking round there are many large clouds out there (photo) in all directions. The radar shows numerous showers, so it is quite possible to get one. It looks as if we have at least another 24 hours of just light breezes (East to South-east). Two web sites I monitor are saying that the showers will ease off during the morning, but with light winds I guess showers can build at any time.

So, sticking my head out - Risk of early showers. Mostly sunny day (always a risk of rain), very light East to South-East breeze, Will feel hot. Another night with little or no breeze.

Have a nice day

Hogan


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- Well I got that wrong!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Aug 2019 10:58:34 -0400
So, Most of the high cloud has gone, the sun is shining hot. No sign of rain (at the moment). The only thing I got right was the wind from a southerly direction.

Also, what I forgot to mention, the Sargasso seaweed is being blown into the southern inlets and beaches.

Still we can now enjoy the breeze from the south and the sunshine, while they last.

Hogan


- Wrong way rain
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 5 Aug 2019 07:45:32 -0400
Good (rainy) morning,

I was wondering what to write this morning, as this tropical wave passes through. Then the weather gave me a helping hand.  We had already had one heavy shower, then a brighter period. I was expecting a slight wind direction change, with the breeze starting to come from more a southerly direction. Then we had another heavy shower, this time with the rain accompanied by a strong wind from the South. Resulting in a misty rain being blown in a well covered air vent in the roof.

So we are now well into the tropical wave. Change of wind direction is a good indicator. So for the next 24 hours we can expect a wind with a more southerly component. But gusts from any direction when squally rain showers pass through. And I do expect some to pop up from the direction of Tobago.

Martinique radar only picks up the heaviest (highest) of showers in our area, but the Trinidad weather radar is showing showers in our vicinity.

Looking out - The remnants of the last shower can still be seen over towards St George. To the East it is very dark and I can see rain falling. This will probably go up the East coast and Carriacou. To the South mostly high cloud. If you look up, you will notice any low cloud coming from a Southerly direction.

My feeling is that today will be mostly (high) overcast, maybe some light rain, intermixed with heavy showers. I hope I am wrong, but I don;t expect much in the way of sunshine. Meanwhile I will enjoy the southerly breeze, as will my friend Pat?

All the best

Hogan


- 96L is no more.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Aug 2019 20:34:15 -0400
96L no longer appears on the NHC charts, but the tropical Wave which spawned it does still exist, so  we can expect showers for the next couple of days.

Hogan



- The difference a few minutes makes.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Aug 2019 07:54:08 -0400
Since my post a few minutes ago. I have just taken these three photos. East - towering Cumulus (More rain?). South - Sargasso seaweed passing by (Guess the East coast is getting it. And to the West a rainbow (Hopefully the house on the left has a pot of gold?

Enjoy.

Hogan

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- Now a low chanc of 96L developing in next few days into a Tropical storm.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 4 Aug 2019 07:30:53 -0400
NHC have downgraded the forecasts for 96L. What there is of it (a tropical wave) is on course for the northern part of the chain. It could still bring some rain to us, also a period of very little wind (probably Monday night through Tuesday.

Today, the radar shows numerous showers between ST Vincent and Grenada. Looking out I can see a heavy shower passing just South of Ft Jeudy, with some more out to the East. I can feel some rain in the air. The sky is overcast to the East, but still blue areas to the West. I can see the top of Morne Gazo, but all the rest of the mountains are shrouded in cloud. A breeze from the East. Humidity (at airport) 89%.

Have a nice Sunday - We hope to go to Coconut Beach to hear some steel pans - weather permitting.

Hogan



- 96L - still not a Tropical Depression.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Aug 2019 07:39:50 -0400
96L has still not gathered enough strength to become a Tropical Depression. There is only a 20% chance of this happening in the next two days, with only 3 days to go before it reaches our area. It is still expected to pass through or near the northern part of the Lesser Antilles. The leading edge of the associated tropical wave does appear to have a large amount of cloud and rain in it. It does not, at this time, look like we will have any strong winds, as it passes.

Today is the sky is hazy and a stiff Easterly breeze. There appears to be some large areas of rain/cloud near Trinidad & Tobago showing on the satellite and radar images. These could spread towards us during the day??? So I think there could be an increased chance of some rain as the day goes on (again with many question marks!).

Have a good day.

Hogan


- 96L - expected in the Lesser Antilles about Tuesday
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 2 Aug 2019 06:56:25 -0400
The latest models have it heading towards the northern half of the island chain as a tropical storm.  It is currently about 1400 miles east of Grenada.

It is too early to predict how it will effect us, but expect light winds and rain Monday through Tuesday, as the associated tropical wave passes through.

This morning we had some light rain. There are more clouds around compared with yesterday. I can see a shower off to the East, but the Martinique radar does not show any rain nearby. The weather chart does show a very weak wave passing through. Possibly it could bring some showers throughout the day.

Hogan




- Storm 96L
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 1 Aug 2019 07:36:39 -0400
The tropical wave is now at 9.5N 37.4W or about 1600 miles East of us. We are beginning to see more predictions of where it will be in 5 days time. They are suggesting it will pass North of Barbados and head towards the northern part of the Lesser Antilles, most have it as a tropical Storm/Cat 1.

This morning, the breeze has dropped, the sky. as I write, is clear blue to the West and lots of fluffy clouds to the East. The mountains have mostly cloud cover.

If you happen to be out very late at night (after midnight) over the next two weeks, spend a little time (if the sky is clear) looking up. There will be an increasing opportunity to see meteors streaking across the sky. They will peak on about the twelfth of August, unfortunately a near full Moon will spoil this years display. This is the annual Perseids  meteor shower. It occurs each year as the Earth passes through dust left behind from 109P/Swift Tuttle comet. So be ready to make your wishes.

Hogan


- Tropical wave SW of Cabo Verdes
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2019 12:04:49 -0400
Good breezy morning, At last the trades are back.

Hazy, but bright with a few clouds, strong Easterly breeze. We had some rain over night, but none showing in our area on the Martinique radar. This does not mean we can't have some small showers.

The Tropical wave I mentioned yesterday is now showing a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression/storm in the next 5 days. It is currently about 2000 miles due east of Grenada. So the 50% prediction in 5 days puts it just East of the Lesser Antilles ! Currently I can't find any predicted tracks, but NHC has it going slightly North of Barbados. Let us see what tomorrow brings.

The breeze should drop a bit tomorrow.

Hogan



- Keeping an eye on the Atlantic
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2019 06:42:30 -0400
Hi,

Well we received a few drips here (Westerhall) yesterday. I did see some large clouds billowing over the mountains, guess some areas had some rain, my guess was in the Grand Roy area??

Today looks to be a mostly sunny day, very low chance of the odd shower. The breeze has returned to a SE-E direction.

Looking across the Atlantic, the NHC have an "X" marking the spot where a tropical wave has 20% chance of developing (in 5 days) as it comes across the Atlantic, I will keep an eye on this one.

Have a nice day

Hogan


- Very calm - after effects of 95L
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 29 Jul 2019 07:34:43 -0400
Good morning,

Calm, almost clear but slightly hazy sky.  As the remnants of the yesterday's tropical wave moves NW towards Puerto Rico, we still feel the effect as it nullifies the trade winds.

Unless the South-easterly breeze picks up today, I expect some rain later as the land heats up and clouds build up over the island.

We should see the trade winds returning over the next two days.

Nothing significant in the Atlantic, apart from a couple of tropical waves.

I must, as every year, mention that my forecasts are completely amateur, I do my best based on information from various websites. I am always happy to receive feedback. Especially how accurate the previous forecast was (please give as a percentage 0(completely wrong) to 100(spot on). My observations are from a vantage point near Westerhall, and I do realise that Sauteurs/Bathway area is on a different planet, as Sally always tells me.

Have a great day -

Hogan




- The tropical wave going through update.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2019 15:59:58 -0400
Since this morning, the axis of the tropical wave has passed through. It has given us a bit of the rain I was expecting. But have just noticed that it is now shown as storm 95L and on the NHC website has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. This system is not a problem for us, but as it moves NW could cause heavy rain and thunder further up the island chain. But here, is currently causing the lack of a breeze and some rain, also the planes to land in the 'wrong' direction.

Hogan


- Well I got that wrong!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2019 07:09:16 -0400
Yesterday I suggested that today would be wet. Well I (along with other websites) got that wrong - so far. A tropical wave is passing through (Sunday Morning), but it has not brought any rain, yet.

The current radar is showing some scattered showers. Looking out, I can see rain showers to the South, Southeast and one building up to the East. So we may still get some rain.  There is also a bright rainbow to the Southwest.

Nothing brewing in the Atlantic (per NHC).

Have a good Sunday.

Hogan


- Tropical wave to pass through the area Sunday
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 27 Jul 2019 04:58:26 -0400
Hi all,

I have just arrived back in Grenada to cool off! Temperatures in the UK were hotter than in Grenada, on Wednesday and Thursday.

Currently there are no tropical storms predicted (NHC). But there is a Tropical wave a few hundred miles to the East of us, which looks like it could bring some rain on Sunday.

Nice to be back.

Hogan



- Plenty Rain
  • By jacqueline dowden <jacquiedowden at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 14 Jul 2019 22:17:07 +0000
Friday evening gave us plenty rain, thunder and lightening and power outages (Mt.Moritz 9 hours).

Today (Sunday) we have had thunder and rain this afternoon and seems more is to come...hearing thunder in the distance again now.

Stay dry and safe,
Jacquie xx


- Storm 93 no longer a threat.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 14 Jul 2019 09:42:05 +0100
Hi all,

Storm 93 is no longer shown on the NHC website. But it does look like Monday could have quite a lot of rain. I have heard that our water tank is now full, the first time for several months. I am looking forward to returning to lovely, and I expect a lot greener, Grenada.

Hogan


- Storm 93
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2019 07:16:04 +0100
Since my quick post yesterday,  NHC now show it as having 10% chance of developing, against 20% yesterday.

Further update tomorrow.

Hogan


- Storm 93 in the Atlantic
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2019 22:38:19 +0100
Hi folks,

I have been very quiet over the last few months. Currently I am in the UK, but keeping an eye on the weather. There is a storm mid Atlantic, with some predictions showing that it could pass through the Southern part of the Windwards. I will keep an eye on it.

Hopefully  we should be back with you soon.

Hogan


- From the other side of the Atlantic...
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 17 Jun 2019 12:33:29 +0100
Hi all,

I have just looked at some satellite images and see that Trini & Tobago are having heavy showers and storms. The area of bad weather appears to be covering an area just up to Grenada. I can see from Dive Grenada webcam that the sea looks calm, but a lot of overcast. There is a tropical wave passing through the area.

Hope to be back to join you soon.

Hogan


- Don't have to water the plants today!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 13 Apr 2019 06:38:42 -0400
We are having some lovely rain. Looks like we could have quite a bit today.

Hogan


- Hey we are having some real rain!!!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 2 Apr 2019 10:55:15 -0400

The garden really needs it.

As usual I am talking about what is happening down South. Probably dry as a bone up north of the island?

Hogan


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