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- Looks like a nice day?
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Oct 2018 07:06:36 -0400
We have woken up to a lovely day. Just a slight NE breezy, almost clear skies. There is far less of the high cloud today.

There are no blips, to our East, on the radar. We still have the upper level westerly air flow, which has been bringing the high cloud. So if storms develop over Western Venezuela then, I guess, they could generate more high cloud later. But it does appear that we will have a much better day. Always the chance of a shower.

Yesterday I said we would have high hazy high cloud and showers. My forecast was correct, but the high cloud became much thicker than I expected and the showers were heavier and more frequent than I hoped.

The weather out in the Atlantic is still very quiet - let's hope it remains like that!

If the weather remains settled then I will ease off on my posts.

Hogan


- Tropical wave has passed through
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:07:25 -0400
A weak tropical wave has passed through the region. But we still have a few rain showers, both on the radar and visible from Westerhall. One passing through as I type. There are no more tropical waves showing anywhere across the Atlantic, at the moment. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has moved further South. The only problem is this high cloud still coming off of Venezuela, which is creating this hazy sunshine. So my guess for today is hazy sunshine with showers.

Have a nice day

Hogan



- Well I was wrong and Windguru was right!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2018 16:35:40 -0400
Well at least up the West coast. We went up to Crayfish Cocoa and Concord Falls. The weather deteriorated as we went North, it always looked brighter behind us

When we returned, the reverse - as we travelled South it brightened up.  Concorde falls were in full flow. Extremely dangerous to go in the pool.

Now it is raining again. High overcast .

Let's hope tomorrow is better.

Hogan


- The Sun is shining and the solar water is beginning to warm up!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2018 08:06:35 -0400
After some very heavy Rain over night, the Sun is out and there is much less high cloud today, so far. To our East there is some rain, showing on the radar, but appears to be dispersing. As we are doing a trip up to Crayfish Bay organic Cocoa Estate up the West coast. Hope the West Coast road is clear after the rain.

The Windguru website is suggesting quite a lot of rain today, I hope it is wrong. The next tropical wave is moving towards us but should not affect us for a couple of days.

Have a great day

Hogan



- Slight improvement in the weather.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2018 08:07:39 -0400
After having had plenty of rain overnight it is slightly better this morning. We are still suffering with the high cloud coming off of S. America, but it is this high level wind that has helped us get through without hurricanes (so far). But does give us the hazy sky.

It is still breezy and there is some more rain showing on the radar to our East, about 30 miles away (as at 08:00), it is heading roughly in our direction. The Sun is currently penetrating the high cloud. So hopefully a sunnier day with a good chance of further rain.

Have a nice day.

Hogan


- Grim weather all day - sad for tourists - including my sister-in-law who arrived yesterday!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2018 17:08:03 -0400
Hardly seen the Sun today. Rain on and off all day.

But apart from this weather possibly being left over from the tropical wave(s) that went through yesterday and that Inter Tropical Convergence Zone being very close, there doesn't seem to be an explanation.

Hopefully tomorrow will be better - it can't be much worse, can it?

Hogan


- Tipping it down!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2018 07:18:06 -0400
Having had a fairly peaceful night, hardly any rain. Now (07:12) the rain is pouring down. The satellite and radar shows a lot of rain coming in from the East, courtesy of the combined tropical wave. It really looks like a day of showers, some probably heavy.

Hogan



- Two waves or one? - Update
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2018 08:17:29 -0400
I have to modify the post I sent out earlier. The riginal is below, but the NHC have put out an 08:00 update and they now state that it is one tropical wave. Everything else still applies.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yesterday the NHC discussion section mentioned two tropical waves
merging into one.  Today, in their tropical wave section they still
mention two waves, and the distance between them hasn't changed. They
still talk about them merging, but now it is has extended to the next 36
hours. Yet on the NHC NOAA Synoptic chart it only shows one tropical
wave and the satellite images show one large area of showers/storms. To
my untrained eye, it looks like one weather system to me. The area of
showers appear to spread over several hundred miles. The western edge of
this system is still 150 miles East of Barbados. This is based on NHC
report timed at 02:00EDT

Here today there is no breeze, a beautiful sunny day, a little high
cloud and no showers showing on the radar. The Trinidad radar does
appear to show the first sign of showers at its Eastern limit. It does
look as if Grenada should have good weather for most of today - don't
think we can say the same about tomorrow!

Have a good day.

Hogan


- Two waves or one?
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Oct 2018 07:48:40 -0400
Yesterday the NHC discussion section mentioned two tropical waves merging into one.  Today, in their tropical wave section they still mention two waves, and the distance between them hasn't changed. They still talk about them merging, but now it is has extended to the next 36 hours. Yet on the NHC NOAA Synoptic chart it only shows one tropical wave and the satellite images show one large area of showers/storms. To my untrained eye, it looks like one weather system to me. The area of showers appear to spread over several hundred miles. The western edge of this system is still 150 miles East of Barbados. This is based on NHC report timed at 02:00EDT

Here today there is no breeze, a beautiful sunny day, a little high cloud and no showers showing on the radar. The Trinidad radar does appear to show the first sign of showers at its Eastern limit. It does look as if Grenada should have good weather for most of today - don't think we can say the same about tomorrow!

Have a good day.

Hogan


- The potential storm mentioned yesterday has gone.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2018 08:38:49 -0400
NHC has removed the potential cyclone from their chart. It is now just a tropical wave (46W, or 1000 miles east us) moving West at 15-20mph. This tropical wave and another in the Atlantic (53W, or 570 miles East of us), moving West at 10-15MPH,are very close and the Tropical Weather Discussion page of NHC comments that these two waves could merge about the time they approach the Lesser Antilles Tuesday/Wednesday, bring the potential of rain and squalls.

Today: It is a lovely day, a few low clouds, a few showers showing on the radar, a pleasant breeze. The sky is a bit hazy.

Have a nice day

Hogan



- A dsturbance mid Atlantic.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 14 Oct 2018 07:19:16 -0400
Wrong Way Leslie has hit Portugal causing a lot of damage. This hurricane, only 3 days ago, was expected to turn and go back out into the Atlantic. This demonstrates that the experts are not always correct. But they are improving all the time.

In the mid Atlantic at a low latitude,  there is an large area of cloud and storms as part of a tropical wave. The experts are giving this a 10% chance of developing into a cyclone in 48 hours. But it's chances of developing after that are still only 10%. This system is expected to have the same feat as the other tropical storms we have had in the Caribbean, so far this year, it should hit drier air and our friend wind shear. Let's hope the experts get this right. This tropical wave is currently about 8N 39W, about 1500 miles East of us, in Grenada. The wave is travelling West at about 15mph.

The radar is showing a few showers in the Grenadines, but nothing, at this time, to our East. There is hardly a breeze. It is horizon is hazy as is the Sun.

Have a great Sunday.

Hogan


- Nadine has dispersed.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2018 06:40:10 -0400
Nadine is no more, that is as a named storm. It still can be seen on satellite images as a clump of clouds. But the remnants are still part of a tropical wave.

Leslie has again disobeyed the rules. Instead of doing a turn back to the West as mentioned yesterday, it is now predicted to turn slightly North and hit the coast of Portugal over night tonight.

What is left of Michael (a Low pressure system) is no longer mentioned by NHC, will the remnants will still travel across the Atlantic into the Southern Bay of Biscay.

Here ans now: Lovely morning, a few small clouds, slight breeze and no rain showing on the radar.

Have a nice weekend.

Hogan


- TS Nadine
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2018 06:42:58 -0400
As of this morning, Tropical Storm Nadine is now at 15.2N latitude (same as Dominica), but is still 1700 miles out to the East. It's present track is WNW and the good news it is is already weakening, and expected to fizzle out in the next few days as it hits cooler sea temperatures, drier air and wind shear. The islands appear safe.

Hurricane 'Wrong Way' Leslie is still wandering around the Atlantic and has been there since 26th September, about 17 days wandering aimlessly. But, although the wrong way generally for hurricanes, has now set it's course to the East and looks like it will wander just North of Madeira, as a hurricane, then a sudden turn South towards the Canaries as a Depression about Tuesday. At that point it will have turned back towards the West. This is a very strange hurricane. The predictive path is changing daily. Let's see what tomorrow holds for it.

As for Michael. currently a Post Tropical Storm, having left the East coast of the USA, and left behind such destruction, is now rushing across the Atlantic and is expected to pick up to Tropical Storm strength again. It's new (current) path takes is to just West of the Bay of Biscay by Monday, but should loose strength by then.

A slight breeze, and a hazy Sun, due to high thin wisps of cloud. The horizon is very clear (a large oil tanker clearly visible about 30 miles away). There are no rain blips on the radar to our East, So it looks like we should have a pleasant day.

Have a good day

Hogan



- Three storms in the Atlantic area.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2018 06:57:13 -0400
We have Michael heading for the North of Florida as a Cat 4 hurricane. then onwards  through the SE USA and out into the Atlantic. Maybe the UK will feel it's remains on Tuesday?

Then we have 'Wrong Way Leslie', still wandering around in the Atlantic, not far from where it started. It should start to move east in the next few days, this will take it North of the Capo Verdes. Storms are normally travelling West in this area.

Finally we have Nadine, a Tropical Storm, the one for us to keep an eye on. But predictions are for it to move North West and then reduce in strength. It is currently at about the same latitude as Grenada, but is currently over 2000 miles away and heading further North.

We have a slight Easterly breeze, hazy sun (due to some high cloud), very few low clouds around. Currently there are no showers, in our vicinity, showing on the radar.

Hogan


- TD Fifteen
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2018 10:15:02 -0400
The disturbance I mentioned yesterday has become a Tropical Depression (Fifteen). The NHC states that it should move NW and briefly become a tropical storm, before turning slightly towards the West as a depression.  Fifteen is worth keeping an eye on.

We had plenty of rain here this morning.  The radar is not showing much rain to the East for about 100 miles.Beyond that is a large area of rain, but too early to see where that will go, or maybe disperse?

Hazy Sun, a nice easterly breeze.

Hogan


- So they Say October - All Over.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2018 15:41:07 -0400
This morning the NHC had showed a disturbance just South of Capo Verdes. They gave it a 20% chance of developing in 48 hours and 30% in 5 days. Now, this afternoon as I was trying to work out if and when some large clouds just to our East were going to bring rain, I looked at the NHC site and I find that the disturbance, 93L is now 50% in 2 days and 60% in 5 days. But, they are saying that wind shear should limit further development. Current position is near 9.1N 27.1W    Watch this space.

Meanwhile, it does look as if we may get some more showers (possibly heavy) in the next few hours.

Hogan


- Had to happen the day after I said I was slowing down!!!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 5 Oct 2018 08:43:32 -0400
Woken up by heavy rain. Radar showed lots of rain around. Just heard thunder. Synoptic chart does not show tropical wave, but seems like one. No mention of anything that could have caused this. Looks like more rain to come today, me thinks! two other weak tropical waves further out in Atlantic.

Thanks to the people that contacted me direct to ask what was going on. But as I said, better people than me didn't appear to see this coming.

All the best.

Hogan


- Fwd: No news, from me, should mean good news. Whoops wrong link!!!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2018 08:22:38 -0400
Sorry, I copied the wrong link. That must have confused many, but hopefully brought a smile!

See below for correct link!

By the way, Ely is my home city in UK - well done to them for trying to reduce plastic. Sorry about that.

Hogan


Good morning all,

The Atlantic East of us is relatively quiet, just a couple of tropical
waves.  With the weather sort of settled for the moment, I will reduce
the number of posts that I do. I will still be monitoring the Atlantic
in case something pops up. Or if it looks as if we will get something
out of the normal.

Hurricane Leslie is still wandering around just East of Bermuda. That
shouldn't affect us, unless the swell it is producing travels this far
south. But currently Grand Anse looks like a mill pond, looking at Dive
Grenada webcam -
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/grenada/saint-georges/grand-anse-beach/grand-anse-beach-caribbean-sea.html

So hopefully I will go a bit quiet for a while. And thanks for the many
emails people have sent me.

Hogan (of Grenada)



- No news, from me, should mean good news.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2018 08:15:23 -0400
Good morning all,

The Atlantic East of us is relatively quiet, just a couple of tropical waves.  With the weather sort of settled for the moment, I will reduce the number of posts that I do. I will still be monitoring the Atlantic in case something pops up. Or if it looks as if we will get something out of the normal.

Hurricane Leslie is still wandering around just East of Bermuda. That shouldn't affect us, unless the swell it is producing travels this far south. But currently Grand Anse looks like a mill pond, looking at Dive Grenada webcam - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-45732883

So hopefully I will go a bit quiet for a while. And thanks for the many emails people have sent me.

Hogan (of Grenada)



- Looks like another nice day in paradise.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2018 07:52:57 -0400
Good morning,

We have the Sun, we have the breeze, the radar looks mostly clear to our East, at the moment. There are a few clouds around. But it looks like a pleasant day. Never rule out the chance of rain.

There is the chance of a cyclone developing in the far West of the Caribbean, but that shouldn't affect us.

Leslie, has developed into a hurricane up to the East of Bermuda. It looks like this will go North then East towards Europe?

Have a great day,

Hogan


- Our part of the Atlantic looks fairly calm.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 2 Oct 2018 06:09:13 -0400
Just a brief report:

Looking East across the Atlantic there are two weak tropical waves. No threat at the moment.

Further up in the Atlantic, near Bermuda is Tropical Storm Leslie. Again, appears to be no threat to the Caribbean.

The radar shows a line of very small showers between Barbados and Tobago, moving slowly in our direction. This appears to be the leading edge of one of the tropical waves I mentioned above.

Beautiful morning, just a slight breeze and only a few clouds. Maybe the possibility of some rain showers later in the day?

Hogan


- Beautiful day here.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2018 12:13:10 -0400
Blue sky, a few fluffy bits, a few more fluffier bits way off to the South, nice easterly breeze. No blibs on radar to our East. Lovely.

A couple of tropical waves in the Atlantic, but nothing to worry about, so far.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Hogan


- Kirk is no more than a tropical wave in the Caribbean
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 29 Sep 2018 06:50:29 -0400
Apart from Tropical Storm Leslie way north in the Atlantic, the Atlantic has calmed down. There are no no immediate threats in our part to the ocean, just a couple of tropical waves.

We still have some high cloud and a gentle trade breeze from the East. The radar shows a couple of showers near Tobago, but the rest of the area to our East is currently free of showers. It is still hazy, no clear horizon. Also we still have some high broken cloud allowing a hazy Sun to break through.

Have a  nice weekend.

Hogan


- Heavy Rain
  • By jacqueline dowden <jacquiedowden at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2018 22:27:33 +0000
Still some thunder and lightning here in the Mt.Moritz area and continuous heavy rain with gusty winds. 

Looks like a nasty night.

Stay safe
Jacquie x


- Now the rain, thunder, lightning and squalls.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2018 17:25:18 -0400
And we were hoping to sit outside for Fish & Chips at Taffy's this evening.

Kirk is, apparently, still a tropical Storm but expected to fizzle out tonight mid Caribbean.

We just had some rain. Have been watching the lightning and thunder over the Grand Anse - True Blue area. Seems to have moved off, but looks like we could possibly get more this evening.

Hopefully the weather will improve tomorrow, especially for the tourist that are only here for a short time. Do come again, it isn't normally like this!

Hogan



- Weather radar showing where rain is.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2018 08:00:54 -0400
This was a snap of the weather radar at 07:30 (local)  this morning. See attached image.

Taken from:http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=EC_Bar&Composite=Sabre&PlanetOfTheApes=1476449042

So you can see how large a blob it is, and that Barbados still seems to be in it!

You have been sent 1 picture.

Kirk Rain.jpg

These pictures were sent with Picasa, from Google.
Try it out here: http://picasa.google.com/

JPEG image


- More about Kirk - strange beast.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2018 07:10:40 -0400
Good morning to Grenada.

kirk, having more or less obeyed the rules for the whole Atlantic crossing, suddenly broke the rules yesterday and overnight. For a start, it left behind, near Barbados, a huge blob of rain and thunder. Looking this morning they are still getting rain this morning but it does seem to be moving West and, hopefully, slowing down. Yes I said West, the radar is now showing rain to the North and East of Grenada, with what looks like a heavy band in the Grenadines, including Possibly Carriacou.

As for the centre of Kirk, instead of going through about Martinique about yesterday lunch time, decided to follow a more South-Westerly direction through St Lucia (some damage and power outages). This morning, based on the NHC report, the centre of Kirk is now 90 miles to the NW of Grenada or Due West of ST Vincent, and, apparently, has returned to a Westerly direction. It is expected to drop to a Tropical Depression later today.

The last advisory I saw mentioned a Tropical Storm watch in the Grenadines. Down here in the South, I wouldn't rule out some rain from the big blob just to the north of us, that is if Kirk decides to whip it's tail.

At least, at last we are getting a slight Southerly breeze. This should pick up as the day goes on, as it turns to a more South-Easterly direction. The sky is completely overcast, but looks brighter to the South/South-East. The latest radar is showing a pulse of showers just to the NW of Grenada and pushing towards us, not sure if it will reach here or not.

I am still waiting to see the StormCarib post from Barbados. But it looks as if they had a grim night.

All the best and still be prepared.

Hogan


- What is there left to say about Kirk?
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2018 22:55:46 -0400
This must have been the strangest Tropical storm most of us can remember. Earlier today none of us could find where the centre was. It left the rain behind just East of Barbados. The rain stayed there most of the day. It is still not clear, to most of us, where the centre is. NHC had it just to the East of St Lucia about 2 hours ago, with a minimum pressure of 1002mb. It had been expected to have passed through the chain about midday. The major problem seems to be the rain that is trailing it. Barbados seems to be really getting clobbered. Here in Grenada, no rain (yet), no wind(yet), no storm(yet), although there is lightning way out to the SW and more somewhere to the North. The biggest problem could be the rain that is way out to our east, will it move west towards us, who knows? The other interesting thing is how quiet the experts have been - I think they are as baffled as the rest of us. I think all we can do is wait to see what happens over night.

Hogan



- Kirk, belatedly is about to pass through Martinique
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2018 17:54:25 -0400
Kirk for some time today moved to the West, but left most of it's rain behind it. Not sure now how much rain will now fall further up the chain, but it does look as if Barbados may get some of this trailing rain very soon. As for down here, we are looking forward to getting our breeze back. But we could also get the sting from the tail of Kirk, with some rain later tonight (visible on the radar as a curl coming down from Barbados. But if that also brings the breeze (from the South), it will be very welcome.

All the best to the islands further up the chain this evening. Kirk is dying, but probably won't give up without a fight.

Hogan


- Kirk appears not to have moved - but....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2018 12:58:24 -0400
Hi,

I have just spotted a post from Barbados saying that it appears that Kirk hasn't moved. This was my feeling looking at some of the satellite images. But looking at the visible light images what appears to have happened, and I am not sure what the experts have to say, is that the centre of circulation is now North of Barbados (this is backed up by the airport wind direction (240 degs at 24 knts). It looks as if it has left most of the heavy rain behind (to the East of Barbados. My guess is that the centre of the depression has indeed continued on course, but the wind shear is really taking it's toll. Let's hope so for Dominica's sake. I have been looking for comments from Wunder Blog etc, but see none. Are they baffled as well.

In Grenada we still have no wind. also many rain showers popping up, then disappearing.

The radar isn't showing much rain around where we would expect the centre of Kirk to be. Also hardly a blip out to our East.

Strange goings on. Where are the experts? What is happening?

Hogan


- Kirk about 60 miles NE of Barbados
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2018 07:24:33 -0400
The centre of Tropical Storm Kirk is approx 60 miles NE of Barbados. The Martinique radar is just picking up the centre of Kirk approaching North of BGI. Shame that Barbados radar is still not working? Satellite images are showing a clean front edge with no out spilling to the West. This I assume is it being hit by the high level winds clearly pushing the top off to the NE. It does seem to have a very active core, with highest winds to the North and East of the centre. It looks as if the centre will pass about 30-40miles North of Barbados then on to the southern part of Martinique.

Down here in Grenada, where we just had another storm pass through. My expectation is maybe some showers and probably some possibly heavy with thunder. The wind, which is currently non existent, even on our ridge, will remain light most of the day, then will pick up from the South later as Kirk passes through into the Caribbean late this afternoon/evening. We could get windy squalls near heavy rain showers. With light winds, I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy rain showers building over the island.

A couple of small showers visible to the East and South (oh and one just arrived on our roof). The radar is showing very few blips to our east, between us and Barbados.

So my thoughts are going to the islands that will be north of Kirk, as it passes through. Where they will get the highest winds and probably very heavy rain.

All the best

Hogan



- Kirk & thanks.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2018 21:11:25 -0400
First I would like to thank the many people that have requested that I continue with the posts.  May I quote from one of them 'I rather believe that “undue panic” is a direct result of lack of information.'.

Before I mention Kirk, just to say we are getting some rain, thunder & Lightning. It is too early to blame this on Kirk, but guess it may have something to do with it.

Kirk is following it's expected path. The centre is expected to pass North of Barbados, then through the island chain about St Lucia/Martinique. Apart from possible heavy rain, thunder storms. Grenada should not get any tropical storm force winds. On the contrary, the winds should be light for the next 24 hours. Picking up from the South and South East Friday.

Kirk is approaching Barbados with a central pressure of 1002mb, it is at 12.7N (further north than Grenada) 56.1W. That is just over 200 miles East of Barbados, or over 350miles East of Grenada. It is hoped that Kirk should very soon start to be affected by the wind shear , the intensity models reflect this.

Tomorrow morning will tell, at least in Barbados.

I wish all our friends a safe Thursday.

Hogan


- Chris
  • By "Richard and Jenita" <richardandjenita at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2018 18:32:21 -0400

Your posts are very useful Chris. I check for them each day as they give a rounded and informed view of what is going on. DO NOT STOP! All the best R&J


- Useful posts
  • By Richie P <realwedda at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2018 18:23:16 -0400
Your posts have been useful Chris.

- I am reluctant to send my expected comments about Kirk
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2018 16:30:25 -0400
I have just heard on local news and on a website that NaDMA have issued the following statement:

'NaDMA encourages the general public to remain vigilant and listen to the localised weather reports issued by the Grenada Met Services. As the agency charged with the responsibility of disaster management, we advise against the publishing of information that will create undue panic among citizens and that we support and disseminate the information issued by our local experts'.

I assume that includes people like ourselves who try to make sense of all the various websites out there. So my post will be brief until I get feedback that my posts are useful.

Briefly, it looks as if Kirk will pass just north of Barbados tomorrow morning and will pass through the chain in the vicinity of St Lucia later tomorrow. May I suggest you listen to the official media for updates.  I will make no further comments on how I believe it will affect Grenada, Leave that to the experts.

I request feedback as to whether you feel that my posts have been useful.


Hogan


- Kirk has strengthened over night. Tropical Storm.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2018 06:29:13 -0400
Tropical Storm Kirk is back with us. It's predicted track is just north of Barbados then through the Lesser Antilles near Martinique. Although it is only a tropical storm, this is likely to bring heavy rain and high winds. We, in Grenada, are too far South, on present track, of it to get strong winds. But we could get some heavy rain and storms. More likely that we will notice hardly any wind on Thursday, with it picking up later in the day from the South. Kirk is currently 600 miles East of Grenada.

For today, there are very few showers on the radar and some high hazy cloud. Hopefully we will see more of the Sun today?

Hogan


- Kirk update.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Sep 2018 19:48:50 -0400
Kirk seems to have broken through the Sahara dust area. This is it's only chance to formally get it's name back. It is predicted to briefly build, possibly into Tropical Storm status.The satellite images look quite impressive. But it's next problem, as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, will be the wind shear that has been mentioned. So it looks as if it will be at it's peak as it passes near Barbados. But it's peak shouldn't be too bad. As always the strongest winds will be on the Northern half of the storm, and most models now show it passing North of Barbados. The last position I found was 11.4N 48.6W. It is still above the track of Ivan.

More on Kirk tomorrow morning.

Hogan



- Woken up by rain
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Sep 2018 06:08:56 -0400
Good morning,

We use the Caribbean's natural air conditioning, the Easterly breeze. Unfortunately that means that if it rains we have to close the window!  So having been woken up and seeing the eastern horizon showing a glimmer of light, I decided to stay up.

Kirk is still remnant of Kirk. What there is of it is still moving westwards, towards the Windwards. It appears to be breaking free of some of the dry Sahara air, and likely to increase in intensity a bit over the next day or so, before hitting the wind shear. There could still be tropical storm force winds to the North of the disturbance. Viewing the various sites, it does appear that it could pass near Barbados then St Vincent in two to three days time. If this is the case, then the affect on Grenada will be minimal, possibly some rain, maybe heavy and thundery, but little or no trade winds (no natural a/c)!

Still light rain as I send this. Plenty of showers visible in all directions. The radar only shows a few more to the East. Thn Satellite images show a larger area of what looks like heavier rain beyond a line from Tobago to Barbados - this is not Kirk, but part of a preceding tropical wave.

Enjoy your day.

Hogan


- Remnants of Kirk may rebuild.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Sep 2018 15:18:37 -0400
The Tropical wave that Kirk was a part of is now having a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical cyclone in the next two days (surprise surprise). Now will this still be Kirk or not?  Anyway, as soon as it, or if it, becomes a cyclone it is going to have to fight the high level winds (wind sheer) that Kirk was going to face, this will make it short lived. Whatever it becomes, it will affect the islands about the same time as before, so we are looking at Thursday/Friday, I guess. I am struggling to find updated model tracks. As soon as I know I will update.

Been a bit of an overcast day here. High level cloud coming off of S. America, I guess this is flowing on the same air stream that will disrupt the new Kirk.

Hogan


- Wind shear and Sahara dust
  • By Richie P <realwedda at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Sep 2018 12:32:13 -0400
It's amazing to see how the wind shear and Sahara dust have just clobbered these tropical systems. Kirk is the latest victim. Satellite pictures show how a wall of wind shear is just stationed over the Lesser Antilles. Is this God protecting us from devastation? 

JPEG image

JPEG image


- Kirk no longer has a closed circulation.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Sep 2018 11:49:03 -0400
Kirk is now remnants of Kirk. It looks as if the large amount of Sahara dust that it was passing through has clobbered it. NHC are no longer issuing advisories on Kirk. But it still consists of some thunderstorms, so I guess we can still expect a tropical wave to pass through at Thursday/Friday.

I will still monitor the remnants of Kirk.

Hogan


- Kirk has lost some strength over night.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 24 Sep 2018 06:36:13 -0400
Kirk is currently a Tropical Depression, running due West with the current predicted path taking it just South of Barbados, as a Tropical Storm, Thursday PM, then through the Windwards (near St Vincent) still as a TS Over night Thursday/Friday. It's last reported position was 9.5N (no change since last night) and 37.4W, about 40 miles North of Ivan track.

A lovely sunrise this morning. We have a gentle Easterly breeze. No showers showing on the radar. It looks like a nice day.

Hogan


- Kirk
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Sep 2018 19:43:39 -0400
Kirk is just about to cross the path of Ivan, from South to North, a bit of good news. It is also less powerful at this point than the "I" storm.

Having looked at various web sites, it seems that the models currently have Kirk going between St Vincent and St Lucia. I stress that is the current scenario. From a Grenada point of view this is good, from a St Vincent/St Lucia point of view, not so good. But most models are having it stay as a tropical storm. But even if this is the case, it could still drop lots of rain. Despite a slightly more northerly prediction Grenada is still in the 5%-10% chance of having Tropical Storm force winds. Barbados is in the 10%-20% chance. This will change as the storm approaches.

I did receive an email from someone asking ' will this storm boldly go where no other storm has gone before'! I did reply that there isn't anywhere in this group of islands that hasn't been visited (boldly or otherwise) by one storm or another.

Now we wait and see what tomorrow brings.

Hogan


- Kirk has not intensified over night,
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Sep 2018 09:37:24 -0400
Kirk has continued to move towards the West, and just slightly North. It is now just 30 miles South of where Ivan became a Tropical Storm. The predictions are (at the moment) for it to continue on an almost Westward course. The NHC prediction is showing that Kirk is expected in our neck of the woods (with the forecast track line currently running through, just below Barbados and near St Vincent, late Thursday, early Friday. Most models appear for it to remain a Tropical Storm.

Apart from the odd blip on the radar, it seems that most of the day should remain dry, with just a chance of a shower. The showers I mentioned yesterday somewhat gathered together and gave us quite a soaking, just as I was leaving Real Value!

Have a good Sunday.

Hogan


- While I have been busy building a garden wall.... I see 99L has become Tropical Storm Kirk,
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Sep 2018 15:53:42 -0400
I have just come in and found that many people are ahead of me in finding 'Captain' Kirk has developed from 99L. Now we have to see how 'Enterprising' this storm will be. Will it beam itself across the Atlantic and materialise in the Lesser Antilles? At this point I think I will stop the puns, you will be pleased to know, basically as I can't think of any more.

Kirk looks as if it will have a fight on it's hand. Being so low a latitude (8.3N) it should be slow to spin up, but will this hold it back as it gets further north? Apparently it is expected to move faster, this should also slow down development, along with expected high wind shear, it looks as if it will not develop further than Tropical Storm. Even so, Grenada is already in the 5% to 10% zone of Tropical Storm possibility for Thursday. Most Models have Kirk moving slowly up to about 10N then travelling due West, before doing a slight turn in a more Northerly direction before passing close to Barbados. But we need to watch this one over the next few days. Whatever happens, let's hope it remains in the TS category, or less. But Kirk has still 2550 miles to travel so we should wait and see and be prepared.

And to John, thanks for reminder - Kirk will be in our vicinity in September, so too Early for "October: All over". And with climate change, who knows. Another bit of interest, Kirk is just approaching the point at which Ivan was a Tropical Depression (9.7N 27.6W). Kirk is 8.3N 24.1W. Still 250 miles to reach the same Longitude and already a TS. Plus another 200 miles before Ivan was named.

I will be watching, thanks for the emails.

Hogan




- 97L now TD11, 99L still moving westwards.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 22 Sep 2018 07:05:47 -0400
Invest 97L has become Tropical Depression 11, it appears it will not intensify much during it's slow journey. Currently about 400 miles due East of Barbados.

99L is still travelling almost due West at about 20 MPH. The intensity models take it into the Tropical Storm category fairly soon, but it looks like they are not predicting it to strengthen much after that - we hope they are correct. The track models show it continuing more or less due West for the next 5 days. This brings it just East of the Barbados region. It's current position is 7.6N 22W which puts it approximately 2700 miles due East of Grenada.

It looks like a nice day with the chance of rain showers later. The current weather radar is showing a band or rain showers about midway between Grenada and Barbados, moving West (towards us).

Have a nice day and weekend.

Hogan


- You haven't heard much from me for about a week but......
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Sep 2018 06:37:21 -0400
I have been very quiet for the last week, as has the Atlantic. But now things are warming up. The two weather systems I mentioned last night are:

Invest 97L currently about 12.1N, 51.5W which is approx 700 miles due east of Grenada, this only has a low chance of developing in the next 5 days. It shows up clearly on satellite images as a small blob. It is very slow moving.

Invest 99L , This has only just left the coast of Africa, it is at 9.3N 14.8W which over 3000 miles away, but this one has a much higher chance of developing. Also, the few model tracks that I have seen so far do show it coming almost straight across the Atlantic, with only a slight northerly component. This weather system is moving fast towards the West, at between 15 to 20 MPH.

I will be keeping a close eye on these two.

Yesterday was so hazy! Today it is slightly better, at least I can see the horizon, just! I believe Sahara dust may have been causing the haze. This is also what helps to slow the development of hurricanes, so I would rather have the haze than the storms, any day.

Very little rain showing on the radars. Satellite images confirm this. It looks like there is a low chance of rain, maybe the odd shower.

Have a good day,

Hogan



- Couple of weather systems in or approaching the Atlantic worth following.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Sep 2018 22:09:51 -0400
About 6 days away in the Atlantic, we have a weather system 97L which does not have a high expectation of developing. But just coming off of East Africa is a system worth keeping an eye on.

Hogan


- Completely overcast and thunder to SW.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 14 Sep 2018 07:59:47 -0400
Isaac seems to be rebuilding West of Dominica. It appears that it didn't want to hurt after last year.  There are still plenty of heavy showers around, including just off to the SW of Grenada. We are getting lots of distant, to Westerhall, thunder. Guess nearer the airport it is noisier!

Still we have our breeze back, at last. Slept better last night. Nothing else on the Eastern horizon, yet.

Have a nice day and weekend.

Hogan


- Isaac who???
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2018 17:51:12 -0400
Isaac has apparently gone through the Lesser Antilles, but..... Although the radar shows clouds circling a point which is now west of Dominica, there are still large showers to the East of Dominica. It does appear that Isaac has really broken up. Looking at the various airport weather data the low pressure seems to stretch all the way down from Martinique to Grenada. With very little pressure gradient there is very little breeze still. Barbados does seem to be getting a SE breeze at last, so guess we will follow shortly. This has been a strange storm.  I have just been outside and have noticed a slight SE breeze picking up and all the boats in the bay are pointing towards the SE on their anchors.

We haven't had any rain today, but have heard a single clap of thunder out to our SE about 2 hours ago.

Now it looks as if we will have a break for a while, apart from some trailing rain from Isaac, maybe.

The Atlantic is left with Florence starting to pound the East coast of the USA. Helene heading for Ireland and the UK. Joyce, which is mid Atlantic, is predicted to a loop then head off, maybe following Helene. And there is a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. But for us, a breather, nothing as yet coming off of Africa, although there is a tropical wave in the area of Capo Verdes.

All the best

Hogan


- Isaac weakens further.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2018 07:02:53 -0400
On satellite images, it is difficult to detect Isaac. It just appears as a few heavy showers. I am guessing it could still bring some strong winds in Guadeloupe and Dominica, but nothing like what was expected.  It looks like Florence and Helene robbed Isaac of a good bit of it's fuel. I hope this is correct.

Down here in Grenada, the sea was like a sheet of glass 30 minutes ago. The sky to the East is almost 100% cloud with showers visible. To the West it is clear blue sky. The Eastern Caribbean radar, which should be picking up Isaac by now, is showing a few, some large, heavy rain showers in the vicinity of where Isaac should be. They are showing a circulation, but not we would normally expect from a Tropical Storm. Down here in the South of the Lesser Antilles there are a few showers, but not many.

All the best up north, and hope we get those southerly breezes I am expecting, very soon. I think tonight will be better. I don't like air-conditioning, but the last two nights I would have switch it on - if I had it!

Hogan


- To my untrained eye Isaac seems weaker.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2018 22:37:09 -0400
Looking at satellite images, Isaac seems to have broken up somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 1003mb which is much higher than for some time. It really looks as if has been weakened. I think the problem as it passes through the islands is rain, rather than wind. That is if it continues as it is.  It's current position (22:14 local time) is 15.4N  57.2 W although it is difficult to fine the centre. Anyway, it has drifted further north. If i am reading the satellite images correctly then most of the heavy showers seem to be to the East of the centre. But it still looks like Dominica will get hit by whatever there is of Isaac, hopefully no more than a Tropical Storm.

As for Helene, which does seem to have taken some of the sting out of Isaac, it is heading North and looks like being just SW of Ireland by 2PM Monday, having skirted the Azores. Look out my friends in the UK.

With Florence about to cause havoc in the USA. All the best to those on the East Coast of the USA.

A new girl on the block is TS Joyce. She is doing a circle in the Northern Atlantic before following Helene before, maybe, following Helene!

So for tomorrow (Thursday), I expect hardly any breeze first thing, but as the day progresses I expect to see (or feel) a change of wind direction, more from the South, with a steady increase in the wind speed -that will be very welcome.

And,

Thanks to the people that approached me at 'Dodgy Dock - Street food, saying they always follow my post. Great evening.

So now I go to bed with no breeze and very stuffy. Tomorrow night should be better. A last look at the radar shows a few showers coming down from the North, hope they cool us down. All the best to Dominica and adjacent islands Thursday

All the best.

Hogan




- Hot Hot Hot
  • By "Richard and Jenita" <richardandjenita at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2018 16:04:26 -0400

Chris’s comment about heavy rain in the sw of the island shows just how random it can be over the island. Here in Hope City (half way up the east coast) it has been hot and dry all day. Normally we get the rain. Hoping Issac keeps getting weaker as it approaches Dominica.


- Isaac seems to have weakened again.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2018 15:45:59 -0400
Having caused some interesting weather here in Grenada - heavy rain in the SW. Isaac is still on it's course for midway up the Lesser Antilles.

We are still in a hardly any breeze situation, with what little there is coming from the NW. There is lots of high cloud (as predicted) with a few breaks. There is a heavy shower visible just off the Ft Jeudy/Westerhall Pt coast.

Have a good, probably stuffy, evening.

Hogan


- Isaac still on course for Dominica/Martinique
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2018 07:12:54 -0400
Isaac has remained a tropical storm and looks as if it will stay that way. With Helene to it's East and Florence to it's NW it looks as if they are taking much of the warm moist air (fuel) out of it. Even so, with Isaac just over 500 miles away from Grenada we are beginning to feel it's affects. It is putting a stop to our usual trade winds, as the air is being sucked in to it. All the models show it entering the Caribbean between Martinique and Guadeloupe (that puts Dominica in the middle). But it does look as if it will remain a tropical storm.

This morning, in Grenada, there is no wind to speak of, the reason I mentioned above. Until Isaac moves into the Caribbean we won't get our trades back. But expect to get a breeze from the North or North-West, this will please those living on the West Coast, or on west facing hill sides (yes my friend Pat, you MAY get a slight breeze today and tomorrow). I am expecting an increase in high cloud (outflow from the tropical storm) as the day goes on, unfortunately this could spoil a telescope viewing we had planned for this evening.

The radar shows a lot of showers moving down from the North-East, all part of the outer rings of Isaac. So it is possible that we could have some heavy showers, maybe thunder today and tomorrow.

Have a nice day and think of our friends in Dominica. Let's hope it is not bad for them.

Hogan


- Isaac appears to have weakened
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2018 06:39:08 -0400
This morning I see Isaac has reduced to a tropical storm. The NHC have it reverting to hurricane strength, briefly, before going through the islands at tropical storm strength. It is still heading due West. Only a couple of models have it turning sharp right before hitting the islands.

There are only a couple of blips on the weather radar. Enjoy what little breeze there is today as Wednesday and Thursday we could have the air sucked out of us with even less wind than now!

Hogan


- Isaac has crept a little bit south
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 10 Sep 2018 18:44:25 -0400
Since this morning the path has dropped to Latitude 14.4 down from 14.7, it is still a Cat 1 Hurricane. We must hope this drop in latitude is just a blip. The models still show it with Dominica in it's sights. Looking at the various web sites I am wondering if the other two large hurricanes on either side are sucking in some of the moisture which would otherwise go into Isaac? If any professionals  read my post I would be interested to know.

Another look at Isaac tomorrow morning.

Hogan



- Isaac
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 10 Sep 2018 07:18:31 -0400
Isaac is due to pass through the island chain on Thursday, it's Westward march has continued overnight, with just a slight move towards the North (14.7N) and 42.7W. (about 1240miles East of Dominica). It hasn't grown in strength over night and is quite a small (size) TS/hurricane, but has speeded up slightly, as expected. Apparently although it could strengthen a bit over the next two days, it is thought that it will be affected adversely by 'outflow from Hurricane Florence' this could  cause wind-sheer which may weaken it before reaching the islands. With Martinique/Dominica still in it's main predicted path any reduction will be welcome there. As for Grenada, if everything goes as planned, all we should get is wind direction change (probably from the NW, then moving through to South, any breeze will be very slight except from squalls around storms. These will only be slight breeze. We can expect high  cloud (out-spill) Wednesday/Thursday.Possibly some outer rain/storms. (Note the last bit of this para is my personal forecast based on past storms).

There are very few showers showing on the radar, today, and there is only a slight Easterly breeze. (it's been a very stuffy night). I don't expect any increase of the breeze until Isaac has passed (Friday)!

All the best, and let's hope for Dominica's sake that this storm will be minimal. Best of luck to the islands up north.

Hogan




- Not much change over night....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 9 Sep 2018 07:11:15 -0400
Isaac has stayed on the same latitude (14.5), only it has moved nearer (38.1W) and strengthened. It is about 1530 miles east of Martinique.  It's current projected path is due West, expected in the Martinique/Dominica area sometime on Thursday. But with 4 days to go, we should all keep an eye on this and at this time of year be prepared.

The radar shows a few scattered showers to the East of us, a similar pattern to yesterday. Very light winds. So I expect a chance of rain showers, possibly locally heavy.

Hogan


- A brief update
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 8 Sep 2018 20:26:05 -0400
92L-TD9- ISAAC (Now has a name) and is a Tropical Storm.

It has crept a little bit north (now 14.5N) and has Martinique in it's sights for Late Wednesday, early Thursday. It is also likely to be a Cat 3.

Let's hope it turns north before reaching the Caribbean.

Hogan



- 93L-TD8-Helene. 92L-TD9 (not named yet)
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 8 Sep 2018 06:45:57 -0400
Tropical Depression Eight (the one that came off Africa yesterday) has been named Tropical Storm Helene. I mistakenly said the next one was going to be called Helena. Helene is predicted to turn north and stay in the Atlantic.

This leaves 92L-TD9 to probably become Isaac. This morning it was centred about 14.3N 35.4W, this is slightly further north than yesterday, putting it on the same latitude as between St Lucia and Martinique and just under 1700 miles to the East. Most of the models are having it moving directly West with Martinique it's target. Only a few have it turning North.

As for today, the current weather radar is showing a few scattered showers to our east. Possibly the odd quick shower at anytime during the day.

Hope you have a nice day.

Hogan


- Now this may get complicated!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 7 Sep 2018 17:27:53 -0400
The two storms that have just come off of Africa, which I have referred to as 92L (the first one and the nearer to us) has now been called Tropical Depression Nine (TD9), whereas 93L, the one that has just popped off Africa early today, was given Tropical Depression status before 92L. So 93L is now Tropical Depression Eight (TD8).

So which of the above will be a named Tropical Storm is your guess. SO for the time they will fight it out as to who becomes Helena and which Isaac. So watch this space.

But just a brief update about 92L or TD9, since this morning it has moved further West, and unfortunately a little bit south. It is now at 13.6N 34.9W. Still there is no consensus as to what path it will take. With some models having it heading for the middle of the island chain and others swerving north before reaching the Caribbean. I know which I prefer! The NOAA Tropical Storm Probabilities chart (5 days) is currently showing a continued Westerly movement. With the probability cones stopping just off the Martinique area.  With Barbados just scraping in the 5-10% range. Tomorrow will bring TD9 within the 5 day cone area of the Lesser Antilles.  Further update tomorrow.

Grenada is not out of the woods, so keep watching.

Hogan


- Sunshower
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 7 Sep 2018 07:52:08 -0400
Before I go on to the more important part of the weather, I have just experienced what I believe is called 'sunrain' or 'sunshower'. It was raining quiet heavily so I went out to try to get an idea how long it would last, only to find the rain was coming from a clear blue sky above and for a large distance all around. I looked this phenomenon up and it seems there are very few explanations for it. This is not the first time I have experienced this it Grenada. Does anyone have a good explanation?

Now for more important updates on the storms.

92L (still not named) is now at about 13.7N, about the same latitude as the southern part of St Lucia, and 34.5W, which makes it roughly 1700 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. Having only drifted slightly north since my last post. It is now taking on a more Westerly route. The predicted paths from various models are not in much agreement, with some having an almost westerly predicted route and others showing a turn towards the North. The NHC 5 day prediction follows the Westerly route.  Although I do not like to mention the 'I' word, 92L is about 300 miles north of the track that 'I' was at this part of it's journey across the Atlantic, and was a Tropical Storm.

Further East we have 93L just leaving the West Coast of Africa. The NHC has that taking a very slightly more northerly track (at the moment). Many of the models have it turning towards the North after passing the Capo Verdes.

Nearer to home, the radar is showing a few showers out to the East, so it is possible that we could see rain today (other than Sunrain!). It looks like a slight Easterly breeze, with localized gusting if there is a shower.

If I notice any significant changes in 92L I will do an update later in the day.

I must stress that my reports are based on what I gather from numerous websites, I am no expert.

Have a nice day.

Hogan


- All Caribbean eyes should now turn to storm 92L
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 6 Sep 2018 07:34:00 -0400
The experts (& their models) are now divided as what course 92L will take. This morning it is 13.3N 29.9W, that is further north than Grenada's latitude and still 2000miles to our East, Some of the the models have it scraping the North of the Lesser Antilles about 13th. For the time Grenada  seems to be safe, but following behind 92L and still over Africa is 93L.

Florence is well up in the Atlantic and now a Cat 3 hurricane. Likely to become, if not already, a cat 4. Bermuda is in the cone of probability.

There are a few showers on the radar to the east. I would put the chances of rain showers slightly higher than yesterday. With a slight NE to E breeze.

Hogan



- Storm 92L
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 5 Sep 2018 07:10:38 -0400
I am pleased to say that storm 92L appears to have made a turn slightly towards the NW. It is now at about 11N 26.6W which has it SW of the Capo Verdes. It seems to be running just south of the track Florence took. The predicted path, at least for the  next 5 days, seems to take it in a direction north of the Caribbean islands. But  there still seems to be much disagreement in the models.

Florence is well up in the Atlantic, with the only possible threat being to Bermuda.

Last evening's sunset was non existent, it was destroyed by a thick layer of high cloud which was drifting off of South America. This was a shame as we spent the evening with an Italian friend, who cooked a lovely meal. We didn't see a sunset, but enjoyed the meal. This morning, there seems to be less high cloud. Hopefully a sunny day, today, with slight East to North-East breeze. A very low chance of a rain. Maybe a better chance of a sunset?

Enjoy your day.

Hogan


- Invest 92L - predictions
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Sep 2018 10:36:58 -0400
The predicted paths drawn by the various models, of 92L, as of this morning, are rather widely scattered.But there does seem to be a trend slightly towards the North. Giving it a possible track just South of that of Florence. The worrying bit is that it's current direction is aiming more to the South of all the predictions. It's current position is 10.1N and 22.7W. That is fractionally further south than yesterday. That is also about 300 miles South of the Capo Verdes.

Florence is still predicted to turn more towards the North and hopefully pass well to the East of Bermuda. It is predicted to become a hurricane later this week.

Gordon is warming up in the Gulf and possibly will reach hurricane force before hitting the coast near Louisiana/Mississippi area.

Hogan


- Now things are warming up.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 3 Sep 2018 17:45:26 -0400
We now have Florence spinning up in the Atlantic. No threat to us as it seems to be staying in the Atlantic and moving NorthWest. Gordon is a Tropical Storm over southern Florida. And now, the system that came off of Africa last night is now South of the Capo Verdes and predictions are not clear where it will go, as yet. It (Classified as Invest 92L) is currently at a Latitude of 10.8N, 18.5W and appears to be heading a bit SW. We want to see this start to move further north.  I will be keeping my eye closely on this one. Also, there is another system approaching the West African Coast!

Whoever switched on this conveyor belt, please switch it off again!

Hogan


- Another disturbance just leaving the West African Coast.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 2 Sep 2018 18:10:04 -0400
This one has a slight chance of developing over the next  5 days.  This one appears to have a slightly more southerly track than Florence. So it does look like the conveyor belt has been switched on.

Hogan


- Tropical Depression Six is now Tropical Storm Florence.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 1 Sep 2018 05:46:13 -0400
Florence is currently just west of the Capo Verdes and appears to be following its predicted path up into the Atlantic. For the time it looks as if it will remain just Tropical Storm strength.

Hogan


- Tropical Depression Six could be Florence before tomorrow?
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 31 Aug 2018 15:21:32 -0400
Hi,

With TD6 skirting just south of the Capo Verdes, it still has not become Florence, but all predictions have it being named this evening or tomorrow morning. We look safe here in Grenada, with all the predictions taking it up into the Atlantic.

Hogan


- I, like the Atlantic, have been quiet for a while - but....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 30 Aug 2018 08:16:38 -0400
It looks as if the Atlantic conveyor is being switched on. There is a Tropical wave moving off of West Africa. The NHC are giving it 80% chance of developing over the next 2 days. Initial models seem to show it taking a Westerly to North-Westerly route, scraping the Capo Verdes. The Wunderground website points out that it is exiting the African coast far enough North that it should not (hope) affect the Caribbean.

I will keep an eye on this and any others that may be following.

We are now approaching what would be the peak of the hurricane season. We have been lucky up to now, but be prepared.

Hogan


- Weather system
  • By "Richard and Jenita" <richardandjenita at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2018 09:20:51 -0400

Well its persisting down, up here in Hope. Been on and off since early hours of the morning. Hope it is on its way out.


- The weather system 99L
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2018 08:47:55 +0100
Hi all,

The weather system I mentioned seems to have almost fizzled out, although I guess people could be waking up to some, possibly, heavy rain this morning. The radar shows some rain passing as I type this, with another band approaching.


Hogan


- Invest 99L 700 miles East of Grenada
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2018 12:57:03 +0100
There is a Tropical wave with a potential depression heading for the lower Windward islands. It has a low chance of becoming a cyclone, but could bring some heavy rain about Saturday.

Hogan


- Tropical wave
  • By Richie P <realwedda at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2018 21:30:33 -0400
Another wave is approaching us. Let's keep an eye on this one




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- Just to say there is a tropical wave with 20% chance of developing.....
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2018 19:13:33 +0100
It is in mid Atlantic and heading West.  I will keep an eye on it.

Hogan


- Tropical wave
  • By Richie P <realwedda at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 9 Aug 2018 16:08:33 -0400
A tropical wave is approaching the island. Expect some rain later

- I see you have a tropical wave passing through.
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2018 18:37:26 +0100
Hi all,

Wow, just been looking at my swimming pool. It is almost overflowing.

No cyclone activity forecast in the next 48 hours. But it might be interesting to see if this wave builds as it goes into the Caribbean?

Hogan


- Rain, rain and more rain.
  • By jacqueline dowden <jacquiedowden at hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2018 16:25:48 +0000
Constant rain has produced some bad flooding on the Island today....hope it doesn't keep up too much longer.

Stay safe
Jacquie x


- Plenty of showers
  • By "Richard and Jenita" <richardandjenita at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Jul 2018 22:57:17 -0400

Well we certainly have had plenty of showers today as the tropical wave passes over us. More to follow if the charts are correct. Here in Hope it has been quite soggy today. Short sharp showers just enough to piss one off when one is trying to work. Oh well I guess it is beginning of the rainy season. Loved the weather forecast today. 50% chance of rain............


- Chris & Beryl - both tropical storms at the same time!
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 8 Jul 2018 12:20:37 +0100
Beryl is approaching The Northern half of the island chain. Chris is off the East coast of the USA.

Hopefully neither will do any harm. Maybe Chris will bring some much needed rain to the UK late next week?

All the best for Dominica and neighbouring islands.

Hogan


- Beryl has reduced to Tropical storm
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2018 17:04:59 +0100
With the centre of Beryl due to pass through the chain near Dominica, more than 300 miles north of us, Grenada probably won't even know it has passed. Let us now hope that it does not build back to a Hurricane. All the best to Dominica.

Hogan


- It looks like Beryl's predicted path has moved slightly South
  • By Chris Bolt <gommier at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2018 09:14:57 +0100

The predicted path of Beryl now seems to centre over Martinique. That is slightly further south than yesterday's predictions. But the good news is it (sorry she) is predicted to only be a Tropical Storm as it passes North of Barbados.

It also looks like the Tropical depression off of the East coast of the USA is likely to become Tropical Storm 'Chris' very soon. Only a few models have that becoming a hurricane later in the week.

Hogan


- Welcomed rain
  • By Richie P <realwedda at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 13:54:58 -0400
It is raining pretty heavily in St. George's now due to the approach of a tropical wave. We've been having water problems do the rain is welcomed

- Sargasso weed returning?
  • By "Richard and Jenita" <richardandjenita at spiceisle.com>
  • Date: Wed, 25 Apr 2018 11:29:33 -0400

Noticed when I went swimming yesterday that more than normal weed was washing up on the east side of the island again. Today I notice a large amount of it floating in to shore. Looks like the Sargasso sea is giving up more it again. Is this happening on other islands down the chain?

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