Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (20:10 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Saturday, July 6, 2024 07:26AM EDT - Defiant and deadly Beryl

Good morning,

Former briefly Category 5 Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Cat 5 recorded in the Atlantic and only the second in the month of July (Hurricane Emily 2005), also now holds the record for the first Cat 4 hurricane to form in the month of June. Now though, the end is near for Beryl's destructive and deadly reign as she chugs to an uncertain intensity ending somewhere along the central coast of Texas. Having continually exceeded expectations, especially in the face of over 20kt wind shear and dry air intrusion facilitated by said wind shear, nothing can be taken for granted in the next few days before expected landfall.

Only the Yucatan Peninsula has been able to knock Beryl down but not out. Now over open very warm rich fuel waters in the Gulf of Mexico as a discombobulated, almost indiscernible 60 mph TS, Beryl is also not barrelling along at over 20 mph like she has most of her life since June 28th, now down, for her, to a paltry 12 mph. This part is not good news as she will have more time to reorganize into a probable Cat 1, maybe Cat 2 before landfall. That landfall is expected to be close to Houston which is a worst case landfall scenario due to the Houston area's population, potential for flooding, but also the number of oil platforms, refineries, and chemical storage facilities staged there. In addition, the major dam which supplies most of the water for the Houston area was recently diagnosed with 2 critical deficiencies and a significant rain/flooding event has the potential to create a failure of that dam with devastating consequences.

Beryl is expected to regain hurricane status Sunday as she needs today to pull herself back together as her inner core has been exposed with the wind shear, dry air introduction and land interaction combination. The farther north she travels, the less dry air and lowered wind shear will be evident. It's a good possibility Beryl will be attempting another rapid intensification phase upon approach to landfall.

Elsewhere, the Caribbean and Atlantic are quiet with the exception of former 96L attempting to give Jamaica a second dose of tropical mischief albeit as a large tropical wave over the next day or so. Fortunately, this gives the Windward Islands a chance to focus on recovery efforts from Beryl's earlier rampage. Don't let the quietness give you a complacent feeling. This is only the 36th day of the official season and November 30th looms way off in the distance. For now that light at the end of the tunnel is but a pinhole.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Thursday, July 4, 2024 12:43PM PDT - Where to donate

Beryl is moving away from the Cayman Islands, after the eye of the storm skirted the south coast of Jamaica. The eye came closer to Grand Cayman than I wrote yesterday, I calculated that the closest point of approach was just 46 miles (relative to Owen Roberts Airport). Hope we hear soon more from the special local hurricane correspondents with how they fared.

The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow AM, very close to Tulum. Lucky for them it should have weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, but don't be surprised it is still a major hurricane. With these high sea surface temperatures you never know, although on satellite images Beryl doesn't look that good anymore! The eye is also not that symmetric anymore, a sign of weakening. But the north side of the storm ("Tulum" side) is still plenty strong...

Finally, I created a new webpage listing Relief Efforts and Where to Donate. If you know of any good relief organizations, esp. local ones, let me know and I will list them. -Gert

Wednesday, July 3, 2024 09:06AM PDT - Jamaica, brace yourself!

Just a short update, Dave made a great posting late last night, taking time out of his busy schedule. Beryl is now affecting Jamaica. Tropical storm conditions are already felt, with hurricane conditions to follow. I was hoping that the hurricane would weaken to a borderline Category 4, or even Category 3, but it is still a with 145 mph sustained winds. Just 15 mph in windspeed does make a difference, see the little 'Wind force' section on the right.

Although Beryl will go a bit more south of the Cayman's, it is also stronger than expected. It will unfortunately still be a Category 4 storm when the center travels about 65 miles south of the island tomorrow morning. That is well within reach of 50 kt (58 mph) winds, but out of reach of hurricane force (64 kn, 74 mph) winds, sustained that is, not gusts, which can be 20% higher! And don't forget about the storm surge, which will be a factor for low lying Cayman. So not out of the woods.

After Cayman, it is the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now the center is expected to make landfall about 70 miles south of Cozumel Friday morning (see the closest point of approach calculator.

I am still trying to gather more reports from Grenada and St.Vincent and Grenadines from my local hurricane correspondents. Stays safe everybody, don't do stupid things. -Gert

PS. People know I do hate to ask for donations, but they are really needed to keep this website going. You can donate here.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024 22:27PM EDT - Barreling Beryl

Good evening,

Cat 4 Hurricane Beryl is still steaming through the Caribbean like someone stole the armored truck money at 22 mph according to the latest update by the NHC. Interesting how a system traveling this fast can hold its own but when you're well formed and shutting out all outside influences, except increasing wind shear, you just keep trucking and that is what Beryl is doing.

Sadly causing deaths and severe destruction in Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the only silver lining was it was moving quickly. A mere 30 minutes via a direct hit on the island of Carricaou along with Union Island, the southernmost island of the Grenadines 10 miles to the north resulted in a complete flattening, akin to Hurricane Irma turning Barbuda into a large sand spit in 2017.

While an eyewall replacement cycle, shared in my previous post did occur, it was early and over very quickly allowing Beryl to regain steam and then some before impact. Now, after passing through her destructive and deadly course through the Windwards as a Cat 4, she did briefly reaching 165 mph sustained Cat 5 winds with up to 200 mph gusts, Now down to 150 mph which really doesn't make a bunch of difference, she is on her way for a date with Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. First Jamaica tomorrow night and the Caymans the next. The Dominican Republic is receiving heavy rainfall and Haiti will as well as Beryl continues on a slow NW climbing in latitude trek for now.

A close brush or direct hit on the southern coast of Jamaica is forecast as a Cat 3. Many residents along Kingstons coast and harbor are fairly complacent according to news reports plus many business owners will not leave for fear of looting afterwards. I understand but your life is not worth staying where the wind and storm surge will inundate you tomorrow night.

Down the road, the Caymans are expected to be spared the eye and brunt but passing just 70 miles south will pose serious issues surge wise and even wind wise. The hurricane magnet this year, so far, courtesy of strong high pressure to the north everywhere, is the Yucatan Peninsula. A Cat 1 or maybe Cat 2 strike is logical. Following Beryl's trip across the peninsula, emerging into the Bay of Campeche, a northern Mexico or SW Texas landfall is in the making, at least for now as a strong TS or Cat 1.

96L is no longer a threat to develop according to the NHC basically staying a strong tropical wave in Beryl's wake. In the meantime, more waves are lined up.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

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- - - Carriacou inside Beryl's eye [frame of loop created by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School] - - -