Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good afternoon, time for a lunchtime update.

After a huge burst of tropical activity which saw Hurricane Fiona whose name should be retired after the death, damage and destruction she caused from Guadeloupe all the way north through Atlantic Canada even affecting Greenland, TS Gaston, a survivor of sorts, and TS Hermine, a rare short lived bird to say the least due to her rarer appearance so close and north to the west coast of Africa, there now remain only two. The above are now Ex's while 99L survives and Hurricane Ian is thriving and driving.

99L is still meandering in the central Atlantic, should reach TS named status and might even become a minimal short lived hurricane while remaining a wanderer with no land mass to menace. Most bets say Julia, the next name on the list, will be a fish storm of mid to strong TS status moving mostly northeast and fizzling out over the open waters.

Unfortunately, there is no fizzling expected of Ian anytime soon and while he's driving towards the western tip of Cuba, he is thriving quite nicely in the bath waters west of the Caymans which to this point is "weathering" Cat 1 Ian handily. Some dry slotted air has been ingested by Ian into his central core unexpectedly which is slowing that thriving but that appears now to be close to walled off so it's on for more rapid intensification. High surf generating rip currents and coastal flooding/surge will propagate to the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Belize and eventually the Florida coastline and Keys. Crashing into Cuba's hilly, not mountainous western end, which Ian will not loiter over for very long as a probable Cat 3, he will then start to menace the western coast of Florida having already started his shenanigans with the Florida Keys. Due to the girth of this system, beginning effects will be felt in the Keys and SW Florida tomorrow morning with tropical storm force winds stretching out 115 miles while being on the "dirty" side of the storm.

From then on, uncertainty remains as to where the direct impact will take place but most takes are between the Anclote River and Englewood at this moment. This is not cut in stone as wobbles east, north and west will occur since no storm goes in a direct straight line for extended times. A little wobble east means worse conditions while west would lessen. Regardless this is going to be a surge of massive proportions if 15-20 ft of water are pushed up into Tampa Bay and the others along the coast. Even McDill AFB could be affected by flooding. This is just at the coastline. Heavy rain and flooding is lurking for the central and northern regions of the state until he pulls away.

Clarity will manifest itself in regards to landfall and potential impacts after Ian's interaction with Cuba but for now, the west coast of Florida, especially the central part, should be thinking evacuations from the coastal areas and flood zones. Ian is large, who will affect most of the peninsula, in charge, and bound to make a destructive statement, not only wind wise, but also for flooding and rainfall. There's a slight chance too that the trough actually misses Ian's bus stop leaving him to stall a few days at Disney while dumping 20+ inches of heavy rainfall. Slight but possible.

Georgia, the Carolinas and all up the east coast should feel his remnants down the road but that's for another future discussion. Hopefully he jogs a bit more west and his proximity to the coast will somewhat lessen his destructive drive but right now, that's not promising.

Stay safe and prepared! Evacuate voluntarily while you can and definitely if mandatorily issued. Don't put yourselves and first responders lives in danger by being selfish and/or stubborn. Mother Nature says Yes, it can happen to you.

Dave.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Southeastern Caribbean Sea: An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent waters. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation. While land interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder significant development during the next day or so, environmental conditions are expected to be mostly conducive for development as the system moves generally westward, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the system enters the south-central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including Isla Margarita, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two.=20 Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Key messages for the disturbance over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9M409VigZF= d26BAusFv16NK5kpr_SB14bAezdqVHgcg4fb3wJxwkcAnaSGsx2K7XzjALYRjtDaAgPpk6riedH= 1FoWdE$=20 $$ Forecaster Pasch

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