Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (01:30 UTC, 17 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Wednesday, October 16, 2024 20:35PM EDT - 94l plus

Good evening,

A quick update after the flurry of hurricanes ended for the time being with several out to sea systems either fizzling in the open Atlantic or menacing Western Europe while a couple others used Florida and up the coast through NC as the later in the season poster child of violent October storms. Hurricane Milton was nominally damaging to me in Florida but much worse elsewhere and could have been much more evil had he made landfall just north of Tampa Bay.

Working back here in the USVI, monitoring 94L. Now approx 16N, 52W, it is moving generally W to WNW about 17-22 mph with a low chance, according to the NHC of development over the next few days. That puts this system around the NE Caribbean Friday into the weekend, possibly as a depression although many of the early models forecast a medium TS upon arrival. The Saharan Dust has diminished immensely, humidity levels will increase and wind shear is moderate. Satellite imagery shows some discombobulation and lack of circulation but it will have time over the next few days to get its act together a bit. Not saying it will, but totally possible for a weaker system.

Further down the road, it is expected to pass just north of the northern Leewards but then eventually turn WSW over Hispaniola, Jamaica and into the Caribbean where the mountains of Hispaniola could very well disrupt whatever entity 94L becomes. Upper level winds from the North plus a dropping cold front from the mainland is expected to facilitate this turn. At the moment.

A disturbance east of Nicaragua may have a slight chance to develop before impacting a large area of Central America with the major threats being flooding and landslides with copious amounts of rainfall. Guatemala, Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and SE Mexico will be in the target zone.

Off to the east, a couple of low rider tropical waves will emerge off the African coast and, while unusual this late in the season to be watching that far away, this is not a usual season. Hence, vigilance should be utilized through the end of the official season at least, aka November 30th. This is not the end of this year's rodeo I believe.

So much for a quick update lol. Stay safe and still prepared.

Dave.

Sunday, October 13, 2024 17:56PM EDT - 94L

Good evening,

With Hurricane Miltons destructive run over with, the only game in the Atlantic is 94L, a probable Nadine down the road but where would she be headed to? Right now, nowhere but WSW into a continuous hostile environment. In a couple days though, that environment will become more hospitable and the rest of the trek might be a different story.

Some models take her through the central Windward Islands on a journey to the Caymans and Central America. Others take her to the northern Leewards, into the southern Turks and Caicos, and possibly winding up with nowhere else to go but land in the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane after 4-5 days. SE Florida and southern Bahamas should be on the watch too.

Stay safe and prepared, still!

Dave

Wednesday, October 9, 2024 21:23PM EDT - Milton Landfall

Good evening from Ormond Beach, Fl just north of Daytona Beach.

Hurricane Milton officially made landfall jas a Cat 3, around 120 mph, just a bit over a half an hour ago on Siesta Key, just south of Tampa. The Tampa Shield has held again but only to a point. It was not a direct hit, not seen since 1921. However, too close for comfort and on the heels of Hurricane Helene a few weeks ago. Still, there will be some surge, (not up to 15 ft though). Power outages are rising as are the rivers and streams with the constant rain up to 2 inches falling. Nevertheless, Tampa will still see immense damage. There is also much debris still lingering on the roadsides from Hurricane Helene's rampage so that will also be in the surge waters plus being possibly turned into deadly flying missiles.

Milton will make his way along the central corridor of the state aka I-4 bringing him to my place in the early morning hours tomorrow probably as a Cat 1. I've "weathered" 2 Cat 5's in a 12 day span before so this should be a cakewalk, however every storm is different. Right now, just after landfall, I've had sustained winds at 36 mph with a 57 mph wind gust and Milton just hit the west coast of Fl. That's approx. 198 miles away drive wise, not as the crow flies. That's how large Miltons wind field expanded after his EWRC, (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle). Previously, the wind field was around 105 miles from the center.

Models and the subsequent forecasts were spot on with dry air entrainment and wind shear combining to knock Milton down to a Cat 3 from a ginormous Cat 5 just an eternity ago in weather time. Still, the storm surge upon landfall, especially around Port Charlotte is on the rise as well as surrounding areas.

Milton will meet his demise in the Atlantic after exiting the east coast but not before leaving several parting gifts in the way of east coast storm surge, potential hurricane force gusts, coastal flooding, rip currents, erosion plus giving the northern Bahamas a kiss on the way out. Possibly 2 hurricanes in a row with their names retired in the same season.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, October 7, 2024 09:39AM PDT - Cat-5

Milton has just been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane! Sustained winds are 160 mph! I know 'everyone' is focusing on the future impact on Florida. But it is actually skirting quite close by the Yucatan Peninsula. The center of the storm is expected to pass by Merida later today at about 52 miles! Also, its Closest Point of Approach with Cancun is only 114 miles (in 24 hours). Hopefully it doesn't make a wobble southward. Stay safe over there! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach Milton with Merida Mexico [10AM CDT Advisory] - - -

Saturday, October 5, 2024 10:51AM EDT - Milton

Good morning,

Fortunately for the Caribbean, there is not much to report on this very active time of the year. Hurricane "Captain Kirk" is roaming the Atlantic with no threat to land, yet. Once transitioned to extra tropical, he will have an impactful date with France extending into Germany with indirect effects on the UK, Portugal and Spain. That's how he looks now. A wobble to the north or south on the way will be worse for wear for the UK and Portugal.

Hurricane Leslie, having finally escaped the wind shear from Kirks tail, finally became a hurricane this morning at 80 mph with stronger gusts. Like Kirk, Leslie will roam the open Atlantic, unless the ridge that is supposed to carry her to the NW then N does not pick her up. Then we might have an East Coast problem down the road. Again, no threat to the Caribbean.

92L. A system which has been on the watchlist all last week, percolating slowly in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Well, that percolation is coming to fruition and it has the Florida Peninsula in its sights. The trough and high wind shear to the north will prohibit soon to be Milton from going north as he traverses the GOMEX while steering him eastward. That means a date with Florida. Preliminarily, looks to be a landfall somewhere between Ft. Myers and just north of Tampa. Way too early to tell although landfall is probable on Wednesday due to an increase in forward speed. As of this moment, we are looking at a Cat 1-4 depending on RI (Rapid Intensification) which is a possibility although wind shear and dry air intrusion is also possible upon approach to landfall which would weaken the impact somewhat. No guarantee. Again, this is at this moment of writing.

A tropical depression is likely today or tomorrow and even a TS designation is probable by the weekend's end. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate today with subsequent investigations tomorrow with soundings and samplings of the atmosphere surrounding 92L. The bathwaters of the GOMEX were not ruffled by the quickness of Hurricane Helene's traversement on her devastating journey so upwelling did not have time to occur, hence the SST's remain hot and deep..

I expect PTC warnings to be issued at 11 am or at least 5 pm today. This weekend, shop and prepare. Monday, Prep. Tuesday, finish prep. Wednesday storm. The NW Bahamas are also mentioned in the prelim advisories as "Milton", as he exits stage right, will affect those islands as well, weakened but by how much depends on how strong on Fl landfall in the first place and at what forward speed.

I had a bad feeling last week about this mess in the SW GOMEX which is why I chose to stay working in Florida as opposed to going back to STT to work as scheduled. Looks like that will be delayed again but my wife, cats and house come first. Yours should too. Well, maybe you don't have cats but still.... Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Look out for your neighbors, especially the elderly folks. Your pets should be a priority as well.

More later or tomorrow. Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Thursday, October 3, 2024 09:33AM PDT - Leslie

A new day, a new storm it seems. Tropical Storm Leslie formed in the far eastern Atlantic behind Hurricane Kirk. It is sitting pretty low at just 10N, but although it is currently moving west, Leslie is expected to follow Kirk and veer north well before reaching the islands. It might still become a Category 2 hurricane or more. Kirk meanwhile has become a major hurricane, and might even reach Category 4 status. Maybe the islands will get some swell from this storm. But nothing major, I like storms like this. Two more down. There might be something developing in the bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico, but that will not affect us. Stay safe! -Gert

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