Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Francine, Tropical Depression Seven
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:50 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Sunday, September 8, 2024 09:43AM EDT - Never better than later

Good morning,

The tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have been in an unusual slumber since Ernesto back in August however they now have decided to wake up unfortunately and, as the saying goes better late than never, in this case should be reversed saying never better than late. Noted Tuesday is the historical peak of hurricane season with totally untapped atmospheric moisture to work with ahead of them all.

However wishful thinking that could be, reality has started up again in the tropics and GOMEX. Today is the anniversary of the Great Galveston Hurricane which killed over 8,000 people as a Cat 4 in 1900. It was and still is the deadliest natural disaster in US recorded history. Ok let's get down to what's going on now.

92L: A wandering system in the mid Atlantic, at approx. 13N 43W with no real steering currents, it is expected to start moving Monday at some point mostly W then WNW at approx. 10-15 mph. The possibilities of this one reaching Cat 1 or Cat 2 status are good down the road but steering currents, at the moment, look to take this OTS (out to sea) as a fish storm but here in the islands we need to be vigilant and prepared as things always change after 4-5 days and this is no ordinary season.

93L (probable): Another meandering wave to the SW of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to be absorbed by another wave exiting the African coast on Monday. This also has a good chance to develop later in the coming week. It also is forecast, again, as of this moment, to become a fish storm. And again, time and Mother Nature will tell.

91L: Drenching parts of the Mexican Gulf of Mexico coast and the Yucatan, is likely headed for a date as a strong tropical storm with Texas and Louisiana, already saturated by recent tropical moisture. Looking to start NW, then N to NNE, landfall is expected Thursday or Friday. Hurricane Hunters are expected to start investigating today. Wind shear and drier air to the north might keep this from ramping up but I suspect the models are underestimating this system with a hurricane quite possible with the bath water it has to work with.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Sunday, September 1, 2024 14:05PM EDT - Starting up again but....

Good afternoon,

Not much has been active in the last few weeks in the tropical Atlantic even though the forecast has been quite active, due to more northerly waves coming off the coast of Africa running into and interacting with our early season protector, the Saharan Dust Layer. The few low wave runners that did emerge and avoided interaction with the dust have been the troublemakers so far this season and they have been quite destructive with long longevity. Fortunately there have only been a few. Now, the dust is receding in density and strength giving the waves the advantage.

The closest wave to the Cabo Verde Islands has a decent chance of formation but is likely to become our first "Fish" storm of the year if it materializes. All others so far have been land fallers. The system ahead of it and closest to the Leeward and Windward Islands is struggling but if it can hold itself together for a few days, it could intensify after interaction with the island chain once entering the Eastern Caribbean. Normally, a dead zone for most tropical system development, if it does manifest itself, it has several ways to go. Directly to Belize and Mexico is one path. The other is south of Puerto Rico and across the DR. Those are just 2 options and none are cut in stone. Strength and direction are determined by the Bermuda High steering wheel, humidity levels, and wind shear elements. Either way, gusty winds, high surf, and heavy rains are to be expected. Hurricane Hunters are expected to investigate so we should know more details tomorrow.

Also a wandering system is off the Texas/Louisiana coast sending flooding rains with rough sea conditions before moving inland Tuesday. Might reach TD status before but the conditions will remain the same. The GOMEX should be on the alert the next few months with Florida in particular and our Lesser Antilles.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Friday, August 16, 2024 15:47PM PDT - Bermuda

Sorry, I was out camping for a few days without much internet. First thing I see is that Ernesto is now a Category 2 storm, but luckily weakening to a Category 1. Next thing, using the Closest Point of Approach-tool is that it is going straight for Bermuda, and that the outer bands are actually over the island already! I will try to get some reports from Bermuda. I am happy it didn't become a surprise "rapid intensification" storm. With these warm sea surface temperatures you never know. I have lived on Bermuda for a little bit, and I know that there houses are well built. This will not be a disastrous event for them, but there will still be damage of course since it is a hurricane! So don't underestimate it. Stay safe everybody! Don't do stupid things. -Gert

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