Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Francine | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Milton | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (22:10 UTC, 20 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

94L Invest:

Sunday, October 13, 2024 17:56PM EDT - 94L

Good evening,

With Hurricane Miltons destructive run over with, the only game in the Atlantic is 94L, a probable Nadine down the road but where would she be headed to? Right now, nowhere but WSW into a continuous hostile environment. In a couple days though, that environment will become more hospitable and the rest of the trek might be a different story.

Some models take her through the central Windward Islands on a journey to the Caymans and Central America. Others take her to the northern Leewards, into the southern Turks and Caicos, and possibly winding up with nowhere else to go but land in the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane after 4-5 days. SE Florida and southern Bahamas should be on the watch too.

Stay safe and prepared, still!

Dave


Wednesday, October 9, 2024 21:23PM EDT - Milton Landfall

Good evening from Ormond Beach, Fl just north of Daytona Beach.

Hurricane Milton officially made landfall jas a Cat 3, around 120 mph, just a bit over a half an hour ago on Siesta Key, just south of Tampa. The Tampa Shield has held again but only to a point. It was not a direct hit, not seen since 1921. However, too close for comfort and on the heels of Hurricane Helene a few weeks ago. Still, there will be some surge, (not up to 15 ft though). Power outages are rising as are the rivers and streams with the constant rain up to 2 inches falling. Nevertheless, Tampa will still see immense damage. There is also much debris still lingering on the roadsides from Hurricane Helene's rampage so that will also be in the surge waters plus being possibly turned into deadly flying missiles.

Milton will make his way along the central corridor of the state aka I-4 bringing him to my place in the early morning hours tomorrow probably as a Cat 1. I've "weathered" 2 Cat 5's in a 12 day span before so this should be a cakewalk, however every storm is different. Right now, just after landfall, I've had sustained winds at 36 mph with a 57 mph wind gust and Milton just hit the west coast of Fl. That's approx. 198 miles away drive wise, not as the crow flies. That's how large Miltons wind field expanded after his EWRC, (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle). Previously, the wind field was around 105 miles from the center.

Models and the subsequent forecasts were spot on with dry air entrainment and wind shear combining to knock Milton down to a Cat 3 from a ginormous Cat 5 just an eternity ago in weather time. Still, the storm surge upon landfall, especially around Port Charlotte is on the rise as well as surrounding areas.

Milton will meet his demise in the Atlantic after exiting the east coast but not before leaving several parting gifts in the way of east coast storm surge, potential hurricane force gusts, coastal flooding, rip currents, erosion plus giving the northern Bahamas a kiss on the way out. Possibly 2 hurricanes in a row with their names retired in the same season.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, October 7, 2024 09:39AM PDT - Cat-5
Milton has just been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane! Sustained winds are 160 mph! I know 'everyone' is focusing on the future impact on Florida. But it is actually skirting quite close by the Yucatan Peninsula. The center of the storm is expected to pass by Merida later today at about 52 miles! Also, its Closest Point of Approach with Cancun is only 114 miles (in 24 hours). Hopefully it doesn't make a wobble southward. Stay safe over there! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach Milton with Merida Mexico [10AM CDT Advisory] - - -

Saturday, October 5, 2024 10:51AM EDT - Milton

Good morning,

Fortunately for the Caribbean, there is not much to report on this very active time of the year. Hurricane "Captain Kirk" is roaming the Atlantic with no threat to land, yet. Once transitioned to extra tropical, he will have an impactful date with France extending into Germany with indirect effects on the UK, Portugal and Spain. That's how he looks now. A wobble to the north or south on the way will be worse for wear for the UK and Portugal.

Hurricane Leslie, having finally escaped the wind shear from Kirks tail, finally became a hurricane this morning at 80 mph with stronger gusts. Like Kirk, Leslie will roam the open Atlantic, unless the ridge that is supposed to carry her to the NW then N does not pick her up. Then we might have an East Coast problem down the road. Again, no threat to the Caribbean.

92L. A system which has been on the watchlist all last week, percolating slowly in the SW Gulf of Mexico. Well, that percolation is coming to fruition and it has the Florida Peninsula in its sights. The trough and high wind shear to the north will prohibit soon to be Milton from going north as he traverses the GOMEX while steering him eastward. That means a date with Florida. Preliminarily, looks to be a landfall somewhere between Ft. Myers and just north of Tampa. Way too early to tell although landfall is probable on Wednesday due to an increase in forward speed. As of this moment, we are looking at a Cat 1-4 depending on RI (Rapid Intensification) which is a possibility although wind shear and dry air intrusion is also possible upon approach to landfall which would weaken the impact somewhat. No guarantee. Again, this is at this moment of writing.

A tropical depression is likely today or tomorrow and even a TS designation is probable by the weekend's end. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate today with subsequent investigations tomorrow with soundings and samplings of the atmosphere surrounding 92L. The bathwaters of the GOMEX were not ruffled by the quickness of Hurricane Helene's traversement on her devastating journey so upwelling did not have time to occur, hence the SST's remain hot and deep..

I expect PTC warnings to be issued at 11 am or at least 5 pm today. This weekend, shop and prepare. Monday, Prep. Tuesday, finish prep. Wednesday storm. The NW Bahamas are also mentioned in the prelim advisories as "Milton", as he exits stage right, will affect those islands as well, weakened but by how much depends on how strong on Fl landfall in the first place and at what forward speed.

I had a bad feeling last week about this mess in the SW GOMEX which is why I chose to stay working in Florida as opposed to going back to STT to work as scheduled. Looks like that will be delayed again but my wife, cats and house come first. Yours should too. Well, maybe you don't have cats but still.... Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Look out for your neighbors, especially the elderly folks. Your pets should be a priority as well.

More later or tomorrow. Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Thursday, October 3, 2024 09:33AM PDT - Leslie
A new day, a new storm it seems. Tropical Storm Leslie formed in the far eastern Atlantic behind Hurricane Kirk. It is sitting pretty low at just 10N, but although it is currently moving west, Leslie is expected to follow Kirk and veer north well before reaching the islands. It might still become a Category 2 hurricane or more. Kirk meanwhile has become a major hurricane, and might even reach Category 4 status. Maybe the islands will get some swell from this storm. But nothing major, I like storms like this. Two more down. There might be something developing in the bathtub known as the Gulf of Mexico, but that will not affect us. Stay safe! -Gert

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic 
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is 
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions 
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle 
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as 
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves 
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual 
development is possible if the system stays over water while it 
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of 
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Oct 15 14:53]
- Antigua [Oct 15 6:32]
- St.Croix [Oct 14 23:41]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 13 20:46]
- Aruba [Oct 11 16:07]
- Dominican Republic [Oct 8 22:23]
- Mexico (incl. Cozumel & Cancun) [Oct 8 0:30]
- Montserrat [Oct 7 19:21]
- Dominica [Oct 7 12:22]
- Nevis [Oct 3 11:48]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Oct 1 8:13]
- Barbados [Sep 26 20:37]
- Cayman Islands [Sep 25 9:33]
- Bermuda [Aug 18 7:09]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 14 20:22]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 13 20:23]
- Anguilla [Aug 13 15:43]
- Saba [Aug 13 15:30]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 13 6:24]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 21 19:38]
- Relief Efforts/Where to Donate [Jul 11 14:32]
- Jamaica [Jul 7 9:28]
- Grenada [Jul 7 6:43]
- St.Lucia [Jul 2 9:55]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert