|2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Elsa | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Julian | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda | Adria | Braylen | Caridad ||
Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:30 UTC, 20 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Sunday, May 1, 2022 18:06PM EDT
- It's almost that official time
Good afternoon and Happy May Day also known as International Labor Day in many countries where the rank and file are still the bedrock of most economies but often forgotten/neglected.
31 days until the official start of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season and preliminary forecast's reflect another above average tropical system season with a major hurricane impact's chances somewhere in the Caribbean, GOM and the CONUS likely. Where, obviously way too early to gauge, but nowhere and no one should be unprepared if you live in these areas. Recent history, ongoing cleanup and restoration in some places and recalled memories are all the reminders needed of what can take place during and after the deed is done. Less than 5 years after catastrophic Cat 5 twins Irma and Maria roared through the NE Caribbean and Puerto Rico 12 days apart, life in many areas affected has still not reached a sense of normalcy, especially in Puerto Rico. Recovery of lives and economics, of course, was thoroughly disrupted even further by the advent of Covid 19 and ongoing subsequent variants to this day. Now, we have other risks in other areas of the world and in Washington whose effects are compounding further progress.
Yes folks, it's almost that official time, June 1st. We in the Caribbean look at that date like we Americans look at April 15th (Tax D-Day). However, the same can be said for both dates. We can prepare for both. We know the seasons are coming as time always marches on. So with that said it's time to start preparing for the upcoming tropical season. Check your old supplies and replace them with fresh ones. Have an evacuation plan. Have an emergency plan as help will not be coming during the storm and unlikely right after if you are hurt. Water, canned food, a manual can opener, medication supplies are among necessities that should be on hand. Don't forget your pets as they are family too. Preparation may not save all of your property but if it saves your life and your loved ones, then property lost doesn't mean much. That can be replaced eventually.
Will May kick off the start of the season with a few weak disturbances, maybe a couple early names, even a minor hurricane? Stay tuned and we will find out the answer shortly. The Saharan Dust Layer (SAL), usually our annual early season protector in the Caribbean, is in place and quite robust off the coast of Africa which means it will meander it's way westward soon. But then, so will those tropical waves. For the time being though we look for homegrown storms close to the east coast and the SW Atlantic.
Stay safe and prepared!
Sunday, April 10, 2022 15:06PM PDT - Above average season?
- On April 7 Colorado State University came out with a new forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. Researchers Klotzbach and Bell expect an above average season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes of which 4 major ones. Last 30 year average is 14.4, 7.2 and 3.2, resp.
The main reason for the above average season is the unlikelihood that there will be El Nino conditions this summer, which would suppress hurricane formation. Also, current SST patterns seem typical for more busy years... Analogue years (years with similar atmospheric/ocean conditions as this year) are 2021 (last year!), 2012, 2008, 2001, 2000 and 1996. Of these, 2008 stands out for me, with Ike, Omar and Paloma... If it is like last year, not too bad!
The chance for at least one major storm to travel through the Caribbean (a large area) is 60% (42% is normal). See below a table with the probably of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (taken from: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html)..
|Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles|
With all this being said, the April forecast is traditionally not that accurate. So we should not take the above too serious. The next one in June will have more skill. Regardless, it is good to think about the upcoming season so that we can slowly mentally prepare for it... Stay safe! -Gert
Sunday, December 19, 2021 19:27PM EST
- End of 2021
Good evening all,
I hope all of you are well and safe.
The end of the 2021 year of many calamities, a few triumphs and close calls, plus crossroads is close at hand. Fortunately for most of us in and around the Caribbean, we were the lucky ones this 2021 hurricane season with relatively few impacts and contacts from the numerous systems that formed. Many were "fish" storms and the few that affected the Caribbean were a TS and three Cat 1's. Sadly a few affected the US mainland and left catastrophic damage. We did exhaust the official name list but since October and November went into early hibernation mode, we did not have to go to list #2, no longer Greek. But it was a 2 month baited breath moment waiting for the season to reinvigorate for one last lashing. A volcano in the Canary Islands that erupted towards the end of September was the wild card this year pumping more dry air and ash into the MDR that wasn't expected by any means. This just dried out the atmosphere, inhospitable to storm formation when usually, it's quite humid.
So, with that said, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. May you all be safe, joyful, helpful and thoughtful, not just this holiday season but going forward. Peace and love to all!
Wednesday, December 1, 2021 10:23AM PST - End of 2021 Season!
- Yesterday was the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season! Although we exhausted the 21 names on the list again this year (only third time this happened), it was relatively quiet for us in the Caribbean. We only had four storms. One tropical storm (Fred) and three Category 1 hurricanes (Elsa, Grace and Ida). Ida became a Category 4 hurricane later, close to New Orleans, and was responsible for 115 deaths and causing over 65 billion dollars in damage, all the way from Venezuela to New York! So we were lucky there!
Thanks to Dave and all my hurricane correspondents for the many updates. It is great to have such a large team of volunteers on the islands who are posting what they see around them year after year! See you all next year! -Gert
Sunday, October 31, 2021 09:02AM PDT - Wanda
- I thought the season was over... But here we have Wanda, the last name on the list. After this we will switch over to a new list of names, starting with A again for the first time. Unlike the Greek alphabeth we used earlier, these names can be retired if necessary.
Back to Wanda, this storm in the middle of the Atlantic, was a Nor'easter on the east coast of the US a few days ago. It should not be any threat to land.
Will this be the last one...? Maybe not, there is a new invest far in the Atlantic that has a 30 percent chance of becoming something. Even if, it will have turned north well before it reaches us. Happy Halloween! -Gert
Tuesday, October 12, 2021 20:38PM EDT
- October Poof (But we are lucky)
The October swoon continues as unpredicted as the activity for the month is lagging far behind what was previously forecast. This is due to a lack of instability in the Atlantic, a Saharan Dust season lasting longer than expected, volcanic ash from the La Palma volcanic eruption contributing to the excess of dry air expected, and wind shear which is stronger than projected by a long shot.
The wide mess north of the DR stretching from Puerto Rico to eastern Cuba is courtesy of an upper level low centered over Cuba and is not expected to develop due mainly to high wind shear. It did however create some moderate turbulence on my flight this morning from Miami to St. Thomas. The tail end of this trough stretches to Panama and Columbia where down the road a few models show possible development.
93L has gone Poof. At least for now. Dry air had a modest role in 93L's lack of development and timely demise but again, high wind shear basically tore it apart as it made its way towards the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico. We are lucky with this one as on it's projected path and potential development without wind shear, we probably would be staring a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane in the eye from Dominica northward to Puerto Rico. As it remains, it is still a strong system with plenty of rain, Tstorms, gusty winds and rough seas to offer the islands. I watched tstorms over the BVI's earlier with a decent amount of lightning but the bulk will come this way overnight and into tomorrow.
Off to the east a few later in the season waves are crossing the MDR with the one near 48W showing some promise but the north end of the wave is eating dust which is killing the rest of it from showing promise and the one around 27W has not caught any attention from the models or the NHC.
On a Pacific note, tropical storm Pamela definitely has not lived up to her potential which is good news for Mexico but expected to create flooding problems in Texas after landfall, maybe as a hurricane tomorrow morning. Once again, dry air ingestion was her main demise as she had everything else going for her.
Stay safe, vigilant and prepared. We still have a ways to go.
Monday, October 11, 2021 16:27PM PDT - Two waves
- Currently we have two invests, both having a slim chance to develop into something. However, both can still produce bad weather for us. The closest one is currently over the Dominican Republic and Haiti and will cause some locally heavy rainfall in the area. It is moving to the north, toward the Turks & Caicos. The second one is about 200 miles to the east of us and also cause some gusty weather over the Lesser Antilles over the next day or so. The wave is spreading over a pretty large area, so gusty conditions and rainfall will be widespread. There are two more waves further out in the Atlantic. The one closest to us (half way) is not expected to become anything, and the other one just rolled off Africa. We'll see what happens with that one... -Gert
Tuesday, October 5, 2021 18:04PM EDT
- Calm before......?
After an interesting September watching long lived, slo-mo major hurricane Sam who gave the Caribbean a scare, the US East coast a blink of the eye, and Bermuda the brush off, the tropics have "chilled out" for the moment. Hey, for 7 and 3/4 days Sam loitered over the Atlantic Basin just biding his time as a major hurricane, but all dressed up and nowhere to deviate and destroy, he will be remembered only in the annals of meteorological data, video and pictures as that small, fierce hurricane that captured the attention of most who he should have while not doing the damage and destruction he could have if trolling 9 mph over land.
The remnants of 91L still slowly move west through the central Atlantic and should bring some needed rains to the Windward Islands having avoided short lived TS Victor's tentacles, whose demise was accurately forecast even if his eventual strength was not. Saharan Dust is usually not this prevalent this late in the hurricane season but a look at the dust map says otherwise. Down the road, these remnants might get their mojo going in the central Caribbean where conditions will be like ripe mangoes. Time as usual will tell. Wind shear will have a say though.
The disturbance around the eastern Bahamas doesn't have much time nor favorable conditions but will bring squally weather to the Carolinas, the rest of the Bahamas, T&C plus rip currents and surf. King Tides are ready for Oct 6th and this disturbance will surely enhance their effects along the low lying areas of the coast including flood prone areas along the Carolina coast like Charleston.
The calm before the storm maybe. We still have 2 months of official hurricane season left. October has been a notorious month previously and could be this year as well. Most indicators favor an active mid October.
Stay safe, vigilant and prepared!
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [May 4 8:02]
- Nevis [May 1 10:35]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Apr 30 18:10]
- Barbados [Apr 30 9:52]
- Barbuda [Apr 24 14:00]
- Antigua [Mar 17 16:50]
- St.Croix [Nov 30 22:57]
- Dominica [Oct 11 23:00]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Oct 9 13:23]
- Grenada [Sep 26 12:37]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 20 7:29]
- St.Lucia [Sep 19 17:44]
- Bermuda [Sep 7 23:54]
- Cayman Islands [Aug 27 7:18]
- Jamaica [Aug 26 22:13]
- Haiti [Aug 18 13:06]
- Dominican Republic [Aug 16 10:33]
- Guadeloupe [Aug 15 19:13]
- Montserrat [Aug 10 20:01]
- Turks & Caicos [Aug 9 1:00]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 2 13:19]
- Bonaire [May 19 14:20]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x