Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good afternoon,

After a zero August, nasty Hurricane Ian in September, and evil Julia in October, November is trying to make up ground and pad the tropical system stats before the end comes. Two hurricanes at the same time in November, Lisa battering Belize and Martin, the farthest north hurricane ever in November made history. Now we have 2 more potentials to discuss. One, a fish storm 97L, east of the Bahamas will menace only the fish, shipping and eventually the UK and Europe bringing some good welcome rains to that parched continent. The other is 98L, poised to consolidate it's broadness into a potential TS down the road with the SE coast of the US in it's long range sights with a right turn Clyde possibility. The race is on to see who gets the next name, Nicole. Owen is after that.

98L, whose potential I shared at the end of my post last Tuesday, has dumped more than 5 inches of rain on the Virgin Islands between Friday and Saturday night with isolated amounts higher in Puerto Rico. Flood advisories have been up since Thursday as our grounds and PR's were already saturated. The tropical low was located earlier this morning right over the USVI on it's way northbound but had rained itself out before it's overhead arrival. Now about 130 miles to the north of Puerto Rico, it is trying to consolidate on it's way to visit the northern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas and eventually the SE coast of Florida and maybe Georgia. It will take some time for this to happen due to it's broadness and the deep dip in the jetstream will not allow rapid intensification. However, light wind shear and bathwater SST's should allow for some intensification. Just how much remains to be seen. It is possible it doesn't intensify and plows into Florida a large, wet blob of moisture, unusual for a usually dry November there. Then, on the other side of the scale, we could be looking at a mid grade TS landing anywhere along the east coast, crossing the peninsula, and then, right turning, strike the west coast, cross the peninsula again, and head up the east coast towards NE.

Either way, the northern Caribbean and SE coast of the US will be the recipients of copious amounts of rainfall, coastal erosion, bad rip currents, and gusty winds. Parts of the central Florida east coast still have major erosion from Ian's exit plus the St. Johns river, still in flood stage from Ian will rise again if this holds true. Not pretty.

It's not over till it's over! Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2023. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant. $$ Forecaster Beven

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