Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Rina
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (15:30 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Thursday, September 28, 2023 07:14AM EDT - What a difference a day makes

Good morning,

The night before last, the forecast was for TS Phillipe to pass several hundred miles to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. Last night, it was forecast to make a direct hit on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, albeit as a weakening tropical storm/depression. Now, it's anyone's bet where he will go as he lollygags around the Atlantic seemingly waiting for 91L to catch up looking like a harried husband this morning on satellite imagery.

Moving a paltry 5mph to the WNW this morning, he is now expected to become the High Atlantic Drifter for the next few days moving first WNW then W then WSW all the while falling apart slowly due to increased wind shear and low humidity levels which will inhibit intensification efforts. The interaction with the following 91L will also play a part in this decay.

Potential effects to the northern islands have been diminished as of this writing due to its probability of decaying into a remnant low or even back to an open wave by day 5. 1-3 inches of rain expected, gusty squally winds, rip currents, coastal erosion and high surf are still expected. However this could change if the track and intensity changes. Your basic strong tropical wave.

Bottom line is Philippe is a quandary of a system at the moment. If it does manage to intensify then it should go more WNW limiting the effects on the islands. If it diminishes as forecast, then it will follow a more West to WSW track bringing it closer to the islands again as a depression or open wave. As the NHC says this forecast of track and intensity is of low confidence, especially if the expected increase in wind shear and interaction with 91L does not develop. This is a wait and see for the next few days so you have time to get some prep done if you need to. We could definitely use the rain part.

Behind 91L about to exit the African coast is another low rider but I think this one could be interesting down the road. Either way for all these systems, stay vigilant and ready as they have been known to defy expectations. Time will tell.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave.

Tuesday, September 26, 2023 07:39AM EDT - Active still

Good morning,

A strong wave brought some heavy rains to Jamaica and the Caymans and is now drenching west and central Cuba while being pulled north meaning a stormy, wet and flooding time for South Florida. It is not expected to develop at this time.

Ophelia is gone as well but her effects still linger in the northeast after causing heavy rains , flooding and severe storm surge issues from the Carolinas to New England. The remnants are racing off towards Europe where those remnants have enhanced a deep low pressure system. This has resulted in Storm Agnes, the first storm warning for the UK this year.

TS Philippe. If it wasn't for WSW wind shear, he would be a hurricane by now. Right at this moment though, it is a discombobulated mess of a 50 mph TS with the majority of his convection to the east of his COC. However, with that being said, a stronger Philippe would curve quicker to the WNW while a weaker one will still trek further WNW but then is forecast to further weaken and move in a more westerly direction passing several hundred miles to the north of the northern Leewards. Still might throw some rains southward while also, after passing by, should encounter weaker wind shear and could regenerate. posing a threat down the road to the Bahamas and east coast. Time and the atmosphere will tell.

91L. Still an invest several hundred miles to the WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Lower in latitude than Philippe when he started, this system is expected to become a hurricane later on while doing what almost every other storm has done this year; recurve to the WNW and miss the islands. But, it's too early to tell with this low rider so be vigilant. A weaker system will head more west where the islands can use the rains but not from a hurricane.

There are a couple of low riders on the African continent splashing down over the next couple weeks bearing watching as not every storm is expected to head to Bermuda this year. We still have a long way to go, as in 76 days of the official hurricane season. It only takes one.

Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave.

Friday, September 22, 2023 06:52AM EDT - Next!

Good morning,

There has not been a break in the action in quite a while which historically is normal this time of the hurricane season however it wasn't supposed to be like this with a strong El Nino. Well, she's been a no show pretty much as far as effects on tropical development are concerned and we have something to seriously consider on the horizon for the Caribbean.

Longevity hurricane Lee has finally dispersed after quite the trek through the Atlantic menacing many along his path. Post tropical storm Nigel, once a fish storm hurricane, is still a formidable force and will be for a few more days but no direct land interaction is expected before he dissipates. We also have soon to be subtropical or maybe even tropical storm Ophelia (now Potential Tropical Cyclone 16), moving generally but somewhat erratically to the NNW at about 14 mph headed for a Carolinas impact. The effects of this storm are far reaching to the east and north and regardless of its classification, will bring heavy rains and strong winds ahead of the COC (center of circulation) this weekend. So, from the Carolinas to southern NE winds, heavy rain and storm surge will be the main issues with the storm surge maybe the biggest.

On to the Caribbean where it is quiet for now and where rain is needed. We just don't need a hurricane for that. It has been a pretty dry spring and summer so far and cisterns are crying for some good mother nature downpours. So we look to the east and find a large tropical wave that is forecast to become a major hurricane down the road and potentially threaten the NE Caribbean in a week or so.

Invest 90L. A low rider about 550 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving between 10-15 mph per satellite observations, this system is expected by most of the models to turn WNW before reaching the Caribbean like its brethren before it. However, there are 2 scenarios. One, the faster it moves, the more of a threat to the islands. The other is a slower movement which should force it on a more WNW solution. Once it interacts with another system ahead of it, we will have a clearer picture of where soon to be Philippe is going to head. The Saharan Dust Layer is to the north, SST's are way above average, and wind shear is moderate in this lowrider area so the possibility of a major hurricane eventually is very apparent. Keep a vigilant eye on this one.

Stay safe, prepared and look out for your pets and neighbors!

Dave.

Friday, September 15, 2023 19:05PM EDT - Busy

Good evening from Miami airport,

A quick update and this will be quick.

Hurricane Lee will have a severe impact indirectly on New England, specifically the Cape, Boston and into Maine. Nova Scotia looks to take the brunt with the possibility of actually being cut off from the mainland of Canada proper. Lee will have a quick but very damaging effect between now and Sunday. I hope they are all prepared. The NE east coast will be ravaged and I hope they are ready as well. This will not be pretty.

TS Margo will be the sit and spin of storms, meandering in the central Atlantic doing a merry go round of sorts as weak steering currents are present allowing her to just do the do si do until she finally succumbs to cooler waters. No threat.

TD #15 is forecast to become hurricane Nigel down the road with maybe being a threat to the hurricane magnet of the year, aka Bermuda. We shall see.

Later down the road, several low riders will exit the African coast which have evil intentions on the Caribbean as they will move more west than WNW like the previous systems. Stay tuned!

Stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend! Now to catch another plane.

Dave

Tuesday, September 12, 2023 16:01PM PDT - Bermuda?

Hurricane Lee is getting bigger and bigger, but not necessarily stronger. The eye is now about 50 mile wide! Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles and tropical storm winds 205. Although Bermuda is not inside the 'Cone of Uncertainty' I would still keep a close eye on this storm. Its current closest point of approach is about 180 miles (see below), with 50% chance of getting tropical storm winds starting early Thursday. The storm looks pretty big relative to Bermuda...

The 'Cone of Uncertainty' doesn't actually say anything about the actual model uncertainty. The cone has a fixed dimension regardless of storm size, impacts (like heavy rain, swell, etc.) or model uncertainty. It is actually based on how well the National Hurricane Center has predicted previous storms. This is getting better every year, and thus making the cone smaller. A good read on this can be found on this Brian McNoldy's blog post.

Since the storm has grown so big in size the NHC Advisory state that: "Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas,Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week."

Elsewhere we have fish storm (now hurricane) Margot. Invest 97L and 98L far east in the Atlantic also seem to bend nicely north well before reaching us! Stay safe! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach of Lee with Bermuda - - -

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