Caribbean Hurricane Network

Good evening,

Dual surprises have occurred although one was somewhat expected and the other was really not expected. This goes to show, the Earth and climate are not always in sync with computer models and will do what they want regardless of what is predicted. It also goes to show, never trust a CV seeded system no matter what time of hurricane season.

Tiny Hurricane Oscar, who probably will win the Oscar for most surprising late season appearance at the 2024 ceremonies, rose from basically a non entity, fighting dry air all the way across the MDR from Africa, passing by the Northern Lesser Antilles, still as a non entity, then morphing rapidly from a wave to a hurricane in less than 12 hours having finally escaped the clutches of late season Saharan Dust.

Tiny as in really tiny for a hurricane as far as they eye is concerned at the moment, measuring only approx. 5 miles in diameter but packing 85 mph winds in that small core. Hurricane Hunters scrambled this morning to put an initial mission together to investigate Oscars rapid strengthening phase which saw Oscar rise from a tropical depression to hurricane status in just under 3 hours which is the fastest intensification ever recorded.

A direct and now impactful, already occurring threat to the low lying Turks and Caicos, Oscar has the potential to be a devastating storm with storm surge, wind impacts, plus the obvious factor of little warning to those residents for preparations. Normally, you sometimes have days to prepare.. These residents had less than a few hours! The northeastern portion of Cuba, already facing several and continuing nationwide blackouts, have hurricane watches up. Unless Oscar does a right turn Clyde moment when anticipated, Oscar will visit that section of Cuba before eventually turning abruptly N then NE.

Oscar could turn into a major down the road. Virtually none of the models or humans foresaw hurricane formation occurring, not to mention the RI factor. Originally Oscar was forecast to MAYBE make a small name for himself as a possible mid grade TS turning WSW into the Caribbean. Now, a hurricane and, while still with a WSW component, forecast to do an about face the other direction. The southeastern Bahamas are also under a hurricane warning. Bermuda might see some watches with a visit from Oscar later on as well.

TS Nadine also finally formed but plowed into Belize as a 60 mph system before attaining hurricane status. This transformation was reasonably expected, however, she was on the rise quickly as well. Good thing land got in the way. Bad thing is the heavy rains and flooding which will occur while she rapidly dissipates, maybe temporarily, over Central America. Possible she re-emerges into the Pacific and regenerates into a hurricane. Time will tell.

Off to the east, any threat coming off the African coast is being decapitated by wind shear so for now, the MDR is finally quiet.

Stay safe and prepared. November still might be interesting.

Dave.

P.S. I see Gert beat me to the post LOL so if I repeat something he shared, not a bad thing.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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