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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Francine | Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie | Milton | Nadine | Oscar | Patty | Rafael | Sara | Tony | Valerie | William |

Active Tropical Systems: Post-tropical Cyclone Francine, Tropical Depression Seven
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (00:50 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Francine tools:
Seven tools:
94L Invest:
92L Invest:

Sunday, September 8, 2024 09:43AM EDT - Never better than later

Good morning,

The tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico have been in an unusual slumber since Ernesto back in August however they now have decided to wake up unfortunately and, as the saying goes better late than never, in this case should be reversed saying never better than late. Noted Tuesday is the historical peak of hurricane season with totally untapped atmospheric moisture to work with ahead of them all.

However wishful thinking that could be, reality has started up again in the tropics and GOMEX. Today is the anniversary of the Great Galveston Hurricane which killed over 8,000 people as a Cat 4 in 1900. It was and still is the deadliest natural disaster in US recorded history. Ok let's get down to what's going on now.

92L: A wandering system in the mid Atlantic, at approx. 13N 43W with no real steering currents, it is expected to start moving Monday at some point mostly W then WNW at approx. 10-15 mph. The possibilities of this one reaching Cat 1 or Cat 2 status are good down the road but steering currents, at the moment, look to take this OTS (out to sea) as a fish storm but here in the islands we need to be vigilant and prepared as things always change after 4-5 days and this is no ordinary season.

93L (probable): Another meandering wave to the SW of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to be absorbed by another wave exiting the African coast on Monday. This also has a good chance to develop later in the coming week. It also is forecast, again, as of this moment, to become a fish storm. And again, time and Mother Nature will tell.

91L: Drenching parts of the Mexican Gulf of Mexico coast and the Yucatan, is likely headed for a date as a strong tropical storm with Texas and Louisiana, already saturated by recent tropical moisture. Looking to start NW, then N to NNE, landfall is expected Thursday or Friday. Hurricane Hunters are expected to start investigating today. Wind shear and drier air to the north might keep this from ramping up but I suspect the models are underestimating this system with a hurricane quite possible with the bath water it has to work with.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave






Sunday, September 1, 2024 14:05PM EDT - Starting up again but....

Good afternoon,

Not much has been active in the last few weeks in the tropical Atlantic even though the forecast has been quite active, due to more northerly waves coming off the coast of Africa running into and interacting with our early season protector, the Saharan Dust Layer. The few low wave runners that did emerge and avoided interaction with the dust have been the troublemakers so far this season and they have been quite destructive with long longevity. Fortunately there have only been a few. Now, the dust is receding in density and strength giving the waves the advantage.

The closest wave to the Cabo Verde Islands has a decent chance of formation but is likely to become our first "Fish" storm of the year if it materializes. All others so far have been land fallers. The system ahead of it and closest to the Leeward and Windward Islands is struggling but if it can hold itself together for a few days, it could intensify after interaction with the island chain once entering the Eastern Caribbean. Normally, a dead zone for most tropical system development, if it does manifest itself, it has several ways to go. Directly to Belize and Mexico is one path. The other is south of Puerto Rico and across the DR. Those are just 2 options and none are cut in stone. Strength and direction are determined by the Bermuda High steering wheel, humidity levels, and wind shear elements. Either way, gusty winds, high surf, and heavy rains are to be expected. Hurricane Hunters are expected to investigate so we should know more details tomorrow.

Also a wandering system is off the Texas/Louisiana coast sending flooding rains with rough sea conditions before moving inland Tuesday. Might reach TD status before but the conditions will remain the same. The GOMEX should be on the alert the next few months with Florida in particular and our Lesser Antilles.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave


Friday, August 16, 2024 15:47PM PDT - Bermuda
Sorry, I was out camping for a few days without much internet. First thing I see is that Ernesto is now a Category 2 storm, but luckily weakening to a Category 1. Next thing, using the Closest Point of Approach-tool is that it is going straight for Bermuda, and that the outer bands are actually over the island already! I will try to get some reports from Bermuda. I am happy it didn't become a surprise "rapid intensification" storm. With these warm sea surface temperatures you never know. I have lived on Bermuda for a little bit, and I know that there houses are well built. This will not be a disastrous event for them, but there will still be damage of course since it is a hurricane! So don't underestimate it. Stay safe everybody! Don't do stupid things. -Gert

... Older discussions >>

- - - Carriacou inside Beryl's eye [frame of loop created by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School] - - -

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Seven, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.  The 
Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Francine, located inland over the Mississippi, Missouri, 
and Tennessee tri-state area.  

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a 
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of 
the Leeward Islands. The proximity of dry air near the system is 
expected to limit additional development over the next couple of 
days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less 
conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward.  Regardless of development, this system could 
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern 
Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual 
frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. 
coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical 
development is possible during the early part of next week while the 
system drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Thomas [Sep 12 13:41]
- St.Croix [Sep 11 23:37]
- Dominica [Sep 11 12:57]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Sep 10 15:41]
- Barbados [Sep 7 10:19]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Sep 6 8:10]
- Bermuda [Aug 18 7:09]
- Antigua [Aug 16 9:06]
- Vieques (PR) [Aug 14 20:22]
- Nevis [Aug 14 11:08]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 13 20:23]
- Anguilla [Aug 13 15:43]
- Saba [Aug 13 15:30]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 13 6:24]
- Montserrat [Aug 12 18:38]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Jul 21 19:38]
- Relief Efforts/Where to Donate [Jul 11 14:32]
- Jamaica [Jul 7 9:28]
- Grenada [Jul 7 6:43]
- Cayman Islands [Jul 6 8:33]
- Dominican Republic [Jul 4 18:47]
- Aruba [Jul 2 13:05]
- St.Lucia [Jul 2 9:55]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- Michael Lowry's Blog
- zoom.earth hurricane tracker
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert