|2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season|
|| Alex | Bonnie | Colin | Danielle | Earl | Fiona | Gaston | Hermine | Ian | Julia | Karl | Lisa | Martin | Nicole | Owen | Paula | Richard | Shary | Tobias | Virginie | Walter ||
Active Tropical Systems: Potential Tropical Cyclone Two
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30
GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (01:00 UTC, 13 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)
Thursday, June 30, 2022 20:23PM EDT
Good evening all,
IF is a 2 letter word used throughout history but, especially now that the world is in such upheaval and flux both politically and culturally. This word also is applicable to our overall climate and more importantly to us in the Caribbean, particularly hurricane season where the climate and weather is magnified.
IF: Ex 94L n/k/a (Now Known As) PTC2, (Potential Tropical Cyclone 2), was not traveling at a tropical speed of sound of 18-23 mph for much of the last 10 days while staying just a hundred or so more miles away from the South American coastline to the north, we could be watching a Category 3-4 June into July monster of a hurricane approaching the Nicaraguan/Costa Rican Caribbean coastlines. Conditions for this time of year were in rare form for this once in ages potential early season catastrophe. Mother Nature pulled the "IF" clause and said move along PTC2, nothing to see here. So far, it has however given rare doses of heavy rains and gusty winds to the ABC islands which are pretty arid otherwise along with Trinidad/Tobago, northern Venezuela only 7 miles from Trinidad, and northern Columbia.
Further along, PTC2 has pulled away, slowed its forward westward beeline, and is expected to finally morph into Bonnie by tonight into tomorrow. Reaching possibly Cat 1 status by the time it reaches a narrow crossing of land in Central America dumping copious amounts of rain on Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Even while making a swift entry and exit, flooding, mudslides and coastal damage with injuries and fatalities are sadly probable. After traversing this narrow strip and avoiding mountainous terrain, it is expected to enter the eastern Pacific still as Bonnie and eventually make hurricane status on that side. If so, it will be only the second time an Atlantic named storm has retained its name crossing into the Pacific since, I believe 1950 according to historical records.
IF: The wave behind PTC2 hadn't been so close behind, another potential name could have been anointed. Too much interaction with 2's outflow which tailwise is quite a long appendage plus attending wind shear and an influx of Saharan Dust, also dry, have stifled its ambitions at this time. Still, you never know and it still retains chances as it moves WNW. Still, it will give some of the islands some much needed rain as drought conditions exist in several of the Leeward Islands especially the mid to northern ones into Puerto Rico. Still, something to watch.
IF: 95L, not upgraded to this point and might not be, had had another day or 2 over the juicy waters of the western Gulf of Mexico, a serious tropical storm probably would have developed. However, hanging too close to land in the first place with an ingestion of dry air and light wind shear have all contributed to a drought easing, albeit holiday drenching weekend ahead for Galveston, Houston and points NNE into Louisiana with Lake Charles filling up its "Lake". Some beach erosion will occur and minor wind damage as well but the biggest threat here will be too much at one time rains causing flooding in an area prone, even while in drought.
So, activity galore and a wakeup call early in the season. It's only the end of June folks. 5 more months ahead so get your preparations done asap. This part of my post is not an IF. It's a WHEN and WHERE.
Stay safe and prepare!
Monday, June 27, 2022 18:46PM EDT
- Too active, too early
Normally this time of year we pay little attention to hurricane alley off to the east of the Windward and Leeward Islands stretching all the way to the Cabo Verde islands close to the African coast. May and June are usually reserved historically for the homegrown variety in the GOMEX, off the east coast and in the SW Caribbean. This year, is an anomaly and a very rare one at that. We do however have a homegrown possibility in addition to these rare potentials off to the east. Wow, it's only June!
PTC2, potential tropical cyclone 2, has been found to contain TS force winds of 40 mph on it's northern side which has necessitated the issuance of tropical storm warnings for Trinidad and Tobago plus Grenada and it's dependencies. The PTC designation now allows the issuance of watches and warnings before a storm is named giving more time for residents to prepare and be aware. A closed surface circulation was not found however and it remains PTC2 but is expected to become TS Bonnie overnight into tomorrow. 3-7 inches of torrential rain is expected from the NE coast of Venezuela all the way up to St. Lucia with lesser amounts flung haphazardly farther north. Barbados will feel the initial impacts and they are expected to receive close to the same spread. However, moving at a relatively speedy 18mph whatever it's designation, flooding rains, gusty winds, rough seas, beach erosion and rip currents with the heavy rain and flooding the biggest threat.
The Bermuda high is expected to force a mostly westward track for this system giving the fairly arid ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao a rare deluge of rain and ts force winds. Flooding here is a real concern even with no mountains to speak of. Further on scraping Colombia, it is expected to reach Cat 1 status before lumbering into Nicaragua as a diminishing storm where flooding will be quite devastating to this very mountainous, steep terrained country. We have sadly seen this before. I do not rule out reaching Cat 2 status though as wind shear is relatively weak and the waters are high octane in that region.
There is an off chance it curves up into the Gulf of Mexico and if it does then that will be another evil kind of animal with nowhere to escape except over land. For now we do not know as way too early to tell. If it does crash into Nicaragua and survive the mountains and fairly short traversing of the country, then it retains a chance at reformation in the East Pacific. For now, we watch, wait and prepare.
Behind former 94L, now PTC2, is another system being assisted by the trailblazing that PTC2 is providing. This one is expected to move on a bit of a more WNW track headed for Guadeloupe, Dominica and points further WNW eventually maybe winding up around the VI's, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas. and maybe even the east coast. Once again too early to tell intensity when it arrives at these locations as cooler water, higher wind shear and more Saharan Dust awaits but it doesn't matter. Get yourselves ready! Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I've said for many many years it only takes one. I should have copyrighted that saying. More on both these systems in the days ahead as they seem to want to hang on for at least a week or so.
In the GOMEX aka the Gulf of Mexico, the tail end of a front is lingering off the Louisiana coast and the longer it lingers over those juicy waters the more potential for it to react negatively to the Texas coastline from the Mexican border northward as it's forecast track is a bit backwards towards the west (for a Gulf system). Regardless, once again, of it's designation of anything but a Cat 2 and above hurricane, the major impacts will be the deluge of rain and subsequent flooding and we all know how that works out, especially around Houston and Galveston. Let's hope if it does become something, it moves quickly. Again, time will tell.
It's the end of June and it's active already. A harbinger of things to come? Probably yes. If conditions are ripe now, what will they be like in August, September and October?
Stay safe and prepared!
Thursday, June 23, 2022 08:35AM EDT
- CV Early Interest
Historically we look closer to the mainland, Gulf of Mexico, and the SW Caribbean for early season troublemakers tropical wise however, we now have an AOI or area of interest not yet dubbed 94L, but probably will be soon just off the coast of Africa near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Forecast to trot across the Atlantic's MDR aka Main Development Region at a modest 15mph, it's development, if any, will be slow to occur due to still relatively cool water temperatures and it's proximity to the ITCZ or the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone that straddles the equator about 10 degrees on either side. It is far enough south though to avoid serious entanglement with the storm protection system we call Saharan Dust which is not very thick at the moment anyway. A wave out in front as Isabel pointed out last night will help pave the way ahead, moisturizing the atmosphere helping to create a protective cocoon for this potential early season systems development. Again, this will be a slow process.
Looking ahead by mid next week, if our early season contender manages to escape the ITCZ and take advantage of the earth's spin, we could have a modest tropical system to contend with. It's path, long term projection wise, would take it through the southern Windward Islands, into the central Caribbean and finally ending up Central America visiting Guatemala, Honduras and Belize. Due to it's far south probability, even islands not used to a plethora of tropical activity like Trinidad/Tobago, Grenada, and even the ABC islands will need to pay closer attention than is customary for them especially since rotating around the globe atmospheric conditions at that time, will be in a favorable spot to enhance any development.
The other scenario is if it manages to spin up much quicker how far more northerly would it go? There it would have to contend with cooler water temperatures, hostile wind shear and our saharan dust shield.
Time will tell but this is an early season heads up of the season to come. If a seedling so far east was to form this early in the season, it does not really bode well for the rest of the season. So, with that in mind, and we are in season already, it's time for preparation if you haven't started. Replace outdated supplies you already have from last year. Check your evac plans. Review that checklist and make sure everyone in your household knows what to do. Yes, seems mundane and yes it takes some time out of our hectic lives to do so but it will save a lot in the long run and quite possibly yours or someone else's life.
Stay safe and prepared!
... Older discussions >>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Western Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite and radar imagery, along with reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, indicate there has been little
change in the strength and organization of the low pressure near
the southern coast of Texas during the last several hours. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward and inland over
southeastern Texas tonight. While slow development is still
possible until the low moves inland, the chances of a tropical
depression forming are decreasing. Regardless of development,
heavy rain and associated flooding are possible along portions of
the Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about
the potential for heavy rain and flooding, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave
moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is
forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over
the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development
is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
|More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image|
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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Jun 30 19:53]
- St.Thomas [Jun 30 17:39]
- Curaçao [Jun 30 17:21]
- Antigua [Jun 29 19:57]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Jun 29 18:51]
- Dominica [Jun 29 8:20]
- Grenada [Jun 29 4:12]
- Barbuda [Jun 28 21:36]
- St.Lucia [Jun 28 19:59]
- Barbados [Jun 28 17:36]
- Nevis [Jun 1 21:20]
- Montserrat [May 29 19:37]
- Haiti [May 29 10:38]
- Cayman Islands [May 22 9:01]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 17 18:49]
Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.
Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide
Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x