Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (22:10 UTC, 12 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025 07:38AM EDT - 93L

Good morning,

May, June, July. Historically the time for "home grown" storms, aka Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic east coast with a sprinkling of the western Caribbean thrown in. So far we have had 3 named homegrown storms, all short lived but with tragic effects nonetheless. Tropical storms may not pack the wind punch but sure do pack a flood punch and this seems to be the season of floods. Now we have 93L. If named, he will be Dexter with another expected short life but also potentially tragic down the road flood wise. We will see. Currently, it's just a low with a broad but pronounced low level spin.

93L, currently swirling off Florida's east coast, is poised to cross the Florida peninsula later today on a slightly north western track. Once it enters the GOMEX, it's a crapshoot at the moment with a definitive track not identified although there are 2 scenarios.

The first is a GOMEX coastline hugger which, while causing high surf, rip currents, flooding rains and ruining some summer vacations along that northern coastline, its proximity to land should inhibit its ability to strengthen, limiting it's time over the bathwater it's traversing. Maybe reaching TD status or Dexter status before turning north into the coast around Mississippi/Louisiana. This is the prevailing wind flow at the moment.

The second, more ominous track takes 93L on a more southerly route dipping into kore of the middle of the GOMEX. This means more time over the untouched bathwater that is the fuel for these systems. This is not good. Potential for Dexter rises exponentially. What it could evolve into remains to be seen but the longer it hangs, the rising potential for strengthening. This system would have to swing around a subtropical ridge in this case which would potentially bring it in as a strong TS into southern Louisiana and/or the Houston area. The longer it stays over water is the crucial component here. RI, while not expected, is not out of the realm of possibility if it follows this track. Let's hope it just is a coast hugger.

Off to the east, a wave at 35W is raising some interest even with copious amounts of seasonal Saharan Dust to its north. Another wave had exited the African coast while another, about 4-5 days from now, has already raised an eyebrow or two. Season will be heating up as we get deeper into this season so preparation and weather awareness will be the keys.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Thursday, July 10, 2025 13:24PM PDT - New forecast

Chantal came and went. The winds weren't too bad, but Chantal dropped 7-8 inch rain locally in North Carolina, so lots of flooding. Unfortunately, five people are confirmed dead.

On another note, researchers at Colorado State issued their July forecast. A bit of good news, they think it might be a little less active than previously forecasted, with 16 tropical storms (was 17 in June, 14.4 is normal). We had 3 already, so 13 more to go. They also predict one less hurricane (8, was 9, normal is 7.2) and one less major hurricane (3, was 4, normal is 3.2). Total storm activity calculated as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was also decreased from 155 to 140 (123 is normal). Chance of one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 53% (was 56%, normal is 47%).

Main reasons for lowering the forecast are the expected higher levels of vertical wind shear in the Caribbean, which normally leads to a less active season. However, other predictors, like sea surface temperatures are still pointing to a very active season. Also, I am not sure how the higher vertical wind shear in the Caribbean protects the islands on the eastern island chain from say Cape Verde storms. But luckily it does look that the higher shear zone extends somewhat eastward into the Atlantic, so maybe hurricanes would weaken a bit when they approach the islands.

In other news, Michael Lowry (a Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV in Miami) posted on his Eye on the Tropics-blog an article titled: Top Hurricane Scientists Sound the Alarm on Looming NOAA Cuts. One of the points is that cuts at AOML, that houses the Hurricane Research Division would decrease the hurricane forecasting accuracy by 20-40%, which would add $10 billion in hurricane related cost per hurricane season. AOML's annual budget is around $20 million, which is only 0.2% of $10 billion. Seems like a good investment, not even accounting for increased fatalities. It does not make sense to me. So frustrating. -Gert

Saturday, July 5, 2025 17:50PM EDT - TS Chantal

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has had a slow start like harness racing, most fortunately , while the Eastern Pacific has taken off like the Triple Crown, Hurricane Erik included. That will most likely change and the Atlantic will catch up to speed as we head into the 6th week of the Atlantic season.

Homegrown systems are the norm in the first 2 months and the last month of the official hurricane season and so far, unlike Hurricane Beryl, last year's biggest anomaly, the same is true. But now, we have TS Chantal. Plus an interesting wave just off the African coast.

TS Chantal, not a threat to the Caribbean, should make landfall overnight tonight into South Carolina. As Gert alluded to in his previous post, while Chantal is not expected to get above midgrade TS status due to wind shear which is diminishing and dry air intrusion taking its place, being over those very warm gulf stream waters could lend a helping hand to a higher than mid level TS strength at landfall. Just a possibility.

Regardless, or irregardless as I like to poke the bear, Chantal will bring heavy rains between 2-6 inches (local spots maybe more) depending on forward speed and topography plus gusty winds with some flash flooding, downed vegetation, power losses, and some structural damage before degrading rapidly Monday into North Carolina.

With most of lopsided Chantal's vigorous energy focused on her north eastern side, at this time, at landfall, her full effect will be focused head on. Her southern end will receive minimal effects, still though, not to be ignored.

To the east, a wave just off the African coast has caught some attention. Saharan Dust has been most prevalent, as usual this time of year and our major protector in the Caribbean while high level wind shear moving towards the NE off of South America's northern coast heading towards the Eastern Caribbean islands adds an additional layer of protection. Dried out air and wind shear mean usual doom for incoming systems trying to make a name for themselves. However, not always. A few have managed to buck the system.

Hence, never take any of the tropics for granted. Always expect the unexpected. It happens. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Saturday, July 5, 2025 11:40AM PDT - Chantal

This morning Invest 92L was upgraded to tropical depression Chantal. It is currently drifting slowly north about 170 miles to the east of Brunswick, Georgia. It will be a short lived storm since it is expected to make landfall tomorrow close to Georgetown, South Carolina (in between Charleston and Myrtle Beach). However, when I look at the current satellite images, the center of Chantal is well to east of the forecasted track. So I think it will make landfall closer to Myrtle Beach then currently forecasted. Esp. people on the east (north/right) side of the track should pay close attention. For your convenience, I have added cities along the US East Coast to the closest point of approach-calculator, there is an option to overlay the latest satellite image so you can see it for yourself.

Although Chantal is 'just' a tropical storm and relative close to the coast, don't underestimate it. The temperature of the Gulf Stream is quite high, and additional strengthening is forecasted. Right now it doesn't look like it will become a hurricane but we have seen 'unexpected' rapid intensification happen when storms are close to the coast and above warm water. Major hazards will be the wind and the rainfall, which can cause flooding. Stay safe everybody. -Gert

Saturday, June 28, 2025 09:32AM EDT - 91L

Good morning all,

I hope and trust all is well as can be with everyone. Having broken 5 ribs a week ago has put a crimp in many things I do so needless to say I haven't been up to speed lately.

The first short lived fish storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Andrea, was, as Gert shared, a storm we like, is no longer,but a fleeting memory of the start to this season. Still, a wake up call for what lies ahead. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has been almost over active as their historical season starts 2 weeks, mid May, before the Atlantic officially begins.

Now we have 91L in the Bay of Campeche headed for a collision with the SE coast of Mexico while drenching flooding rains fall on Belize and Guatemala. Will it have the time to realize a named storm which would be next in line Barry? Possibly, but it has a short lifespan to make it happen. With the ultra warm waters and limited wind shear, it does have a good possibility to rapidly intensify from invest to a named entity. Time will tell.

Regardless,heavy rains and flash flooding will be its legacy, no matter if it realizes a name or not.

Looking towards the east, we will have a few early season waves approach but with the hostile upper level wind shear and heavy effects of the Saharan Dust Layer, chances are quite low of anything tropical developing anytime soon. However, do not let that deceive you as some waves have overcome the odds like this and manifested themselves into tropical entities.

The mantra, stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend.

Dave

Tuesday, June 24, 2025 08:48AM PDT - Andrea

As I alluded to yesterday, Invest 90L has become the first tropical storm of the season, Andrea. It is far away from us (950 miles to the northeast of Bermuda, and about 1500 miles from the islands) and moving away. Also, Andrea will be short lived since it awaits colder sea surface temperatures and high wind shear. It might not even last a day. One down, we like these storms.

On a separate note, today the website part that is hosted on one of the dedicated servers will be migrated to a 'new generation' server by my excellent web host pairNetworks, so it will be down for hopefully not too long. -Gert

Monday, June 23, 2025 16:00PM PDT - Some action?

Our first invest this year! Luckily it is in the subtropical Atlantic, over 600 miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. If it develops into something , it won't affect us in the Caribbean. It is nice to have a slow start of hurricane season. Last year around this time a tropical wave came off the African coast and became Hurricane Beryl, making landfall on Carriacou July 1st with 140 mph winds! -Gert

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