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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Depression Twelve
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (06:30 UTC, 19 minutes ago)
Scale bar (lower right) is 250 miles. [more satellite imagery].
See storm-centered satellite image and loop in the tools section below (if available)

Twelve tools:
91L Invest:

Wednesday, October 5, 2022 05:35AM EDT - Lowrider season continues

Good morning,

Quick note before work this morning. Hope all is well as can be after Fiona and Ian jolted an otherwise very quiet season with Puerto Rico, the DR, Turks & Caicos and Florida getting hammered while the southern Windward Islands and the ABC Islands received unwelcome rare attention as well. In the next few days, the ABC's and southern Windwards look to get another heavy dose of rare attention from 91L which is following the low rider route trending this season.

TD#12 is an ugly tropical depression out in the Eastern Atlantic but should not affect any land masses as it moves NW into the central Atlantic. Expected to be short lived and dissipate by Friday due to cooler sea surface temperatures and much higher wind shear, this system has a small chance of regeneration after 5-7 days while moving towards the sub tropical Atlantic, again not expected to be a land mass threat.

91L will menace the Windward Islands, ABC Islands, and the northern coast of South America on it's way to what possibly could be a bad encounter with Nicaragua, Honduras and Belize. Not expected to recurve like Ian did due to strong high pressure steering, squally weather with heavy rainfall is expected over a wide area. If it can avoid too much land interaction, 91L is likely to become a depression and intensify into our next hurricane. Hurricane Hunters are expected to investigate very shortly.

More later. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, October 3, 2022 20:04PM PDT - Wave way south
A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Now named Invest 91L is not expected to become anything before it crossses the islands late Wednesday, but it will bring some 'squally' weather. So stay alert!

Another tropical wave further to the east, Invest 92L, might actually become something. The NHC gives it a 70% chance to become a depression within 48 hours. However, it should veer well to the north before reaching the islands. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Thursday, September 29, 2022 13:51PM PDT - Ian
I am back home again from vacation and family visit in Europe, so ready to report again! Thanks to Dave for holding the fort with his excellent contributions! They are the best! A lot has happened in the 3 weeks I was gone: when I left we were dealing with Earl, there has been a few storms since. Glad that Ian passed safely around the Caymans, but sad to see the destruction in Florida where it made landfall as a Category 4 close to Ft.Myers (and poised to make another landfall near Charleston, South Carolina).

Elsewhere in the Caribbean I see this big blob in the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that's not expected to become anything. Tropical Depression 11 that is 'way out' there is basically gone. However, a new tropical wave has departed the African Coast and may develop into something, but it looks like that it will veer off to the north before it reaches us!

Finally, thanks for all the donations I have received so far. I am still in the process of thanking you personally (I am 'a bit' behind on email). Also I wanted to note that I added another payment option, Stripe, for people who can't or won't use Paypal. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Monday, September 26, 2022 13:12PM EDT - Ian and the 3 Ex's

Good afternoon, time for a lunchtime update.

After a huge burst of tropical activity which saw Hurricane Fiona whose name should be retired after the death, damage and destruction she caused from Guadeloupe all the way north through Atlantic Canada even affecting Greenland, TS Gaston, a survivor of sorts, and TS Hermine, a rare short lived bird to say the least due to her rarer appearance so close and north to the west coast of Africa, there now remain only two. The above are now Ex's while 99L survives and Hurricane Ian is thriving and driving.

99L is still meandering in the central Atlantic, should reach TS named status and might even become a minimal short lived hurricane while remaining a wanderer with no land mass to menace. Most bets say Julia, the next name on the list, will be a fish storm of mid to strong TS status moving mostly northeast and fizzling out over the open waters.

Unfortunately, there is no fizzling expected of Ian anytime soon and while he's driving towards the western tip of Cuba, he is thriving quite nicely in the bath waters west of the Caymans which to this point is "weathering" Cat 1 Ian handily. Some dry slotted air has been ingested by Ian into his central core unexpectedly which is slowing that thriving but that appears now to be close to walled off so it's on for more rapid intensification. High surf generating rip currents and coastal flooding/surge will propagate to the Yucatan Peninsula, Honduras and Belize and eventually the Florida coastline and Keys. Crashing into Cuba's hilly, not mountainous western end, which Ian will not loiter over for very long as a probable Cat 3, he will then start to menace the western coast of Florida having already started his shenanigans with the Florida Keys. Due to the girth of this system, beginning effects will be felt in the Keys and SW Florida tomorrow morning with tropical storm force winds stretching out 115 miles while being on the "dirty" side of the storm.

From then on, uncertainty remains as to where the direct impact will take place but most takes are between the Anclote River and Englewood at this moment. This is not cut in stone as wobbles east, north and west will occur since no storm goes in a direct straight line for extended times. A little wobble east means worse conditions while west would lessen. Regardless this is going to be a surge of massive proportions if 15-20 ft of water are pushed up into Tampa Bay and the others along the coast. Even McDill AFB could be affected by flooding. This is just at the coastline. Heavy rain and flooding is lurking for the central and northern regions of the state until he pulls away.

Clarity will manifest itself in regards to landfall and potential impacts after Ian's interaction with Cuba but for now, the west coast of Florida, especially the central part, should be thinking evacuations from the coastal areas and flood zones. Ian is large, who will affect most of the peninsula, in charge, and bound to make a destructive statement, not only wind wise, but also for flooding and rainfall. There's a slight chance too that the trough actually misses Ian's bus stop leaving him to stall a few days at Disney while dumping 20+ inches of heavy rainfall. Slight but possible.

Georgia, the Carolinas and all up the east coast should feel his remnants down the road but that's for another future discussion. Hopefully he jogs a bit more west and his proximity to the coast will somewhat lessen his destructive drive but right now, that's not promising.

Stay safe and prepared! Evacuate voluntarily while you can and definitely if mandatorily issued. Don't put yourselves and first responders lives in danger by being selfish and/or stubborn. Mother Nature says Yes, it can happen to you.

Dave.


... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve, located several hundred miles west-northwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure located over the far southeastern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern Windward Islands, northern South America, and adjacent
waters.  Satellite-derived wind data indicate that this system does
not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.  While land
interaction with the northern coast of South America may hinder
significant development during the next day or so, environmental
conditions are expected to be mostly conducive for development as
the system moves generally westward, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in the next couple of days by the time the system
enters the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding,
as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands, northern portions of Venezuela including
Isla Margarita, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two.=20
Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central
America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Key messages for the disturbance over the far southeastern Caribbean
Sea can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.hurricanes.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9M409VigZF=
d26BAusFv16NK5kpr_SB14bAezdqVHgcg4fb3wJxwkcAnaSGsx2K7XzjALYRjtDaAgPpk6riedH=
1FoWdE$=20

$$
Forecaster Pasch
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Oct 5 23:52]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 5 21:47]
- St.Thomas [Oct 5 17:26]
- Barbados [Oct 5 12:50]
- Haiti [Oct 4 14:21]
- Dominica [Oct 4 11:00]
- Cayman Islands [Oct 3 9:28]
- Montserrat [Sep 28 19:03]
- St.Lucia [Sep 27 20:43]
- Florida Keys [Sep 26 20:25]
- Antigua [Sep 26 13:04]
- Curaçao [Sep 26 11:13]
- Jamaica [Sep 26 10:24]
- Turks & Caicos [Sep 21 5:46]
- Grenada [Sep 21 3:04]
- Bermuda [Sep 20 19:36]
- Dominican Republic [Sep 20 16:31]
- Puerto Rico [Sep 20 10:20]
- Vieques (PR) [Sep 19 8:07]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Sep 17 11:41]
- Nevis [Sep 17 10:34]
- Anguilla [Sep 17 8:50]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 15 12:21]
- Barbuda [Jul 10 7:46]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- Tang/UAlbany (model tracks)
- tropicaltidbits.com
- weathernerds.org (ensembles)
- CIMSS/U.Wisc-Mad
- Brammer/UAlbany
- ECMWF Model Forecast
- Jeff Masters Blog
- Brian McNoldy Blog
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide

Wind force relative to Category 1:
- Tropical Storm 39mph: 0.28x
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74mph: 1x
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96mph: 1.7x
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111mph: 2.3x
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130mph: 3.1x
- Cat.5 Hurricane 157mph: 4.5x
- Irma 185mph: 6.3x



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert