Caribbean Hurricane Network - 2 0 2 4  Season -
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Thursday, July 4, 2024 12:43PM PDT - Where to donate

Beryl is moving away from the Cayman Islands, after the eye of the storm skirted the south coast of Jamaica. The eye came closer to Grand Cayman than I wrote yesterday, I calculated that the closest point of approach was just 46 miles (relative to Owen Roberts Airport). Hope we hear soon more from the special local hurricane correspondents with how they fared.

The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow AM, very close to Tulum. Lucky for them it should have weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, but don't be surprised it is still a major hurricane. With these high sea surface temperatures you never know, although on satellite images Beryl doesn't look that good anymore! The eye is also not that symmetric anymore, a sign of weakening. But the north side of the storm ("Tulum" side) is still plenty strong...

Finally, I created a new webpage listing Relief Efforts and Where to Donate. If you know of any good relief organizations, esp. local ones, let me know and I will list them. -Gert

Wednesday, July 3, 2024 09:06AM PDT - Jamaica, brace yourself!

Just a short update, Dave made a great posting late last night, taking time out of his busy schedule. Beryl is now affecting Jamaica. Tropical storm conditions are already felt, with hurricane conditions to follow. I was hoping that the hurricane would weaken to a borderline Category 4, or even Category 3, but it is still a with 145 mph sustained winds. Just 15 mph in windspeed does make a difference, see the little 'Wind force' section on the right.

Although Beryl will go a bit more south of the Cayman's, it is also stronger than expected. It will unfortunately still be a Category 4 storm when the center travels about 65 miles south of the island tomorrow morning. That is well within reach of 50 kt (58 mph) winds, but out of reach of hurricane force (64 kn, 74 mph) winds, sustained that is, not gusts, which can be 20% higher! And don't forget about the storm surge, which will be a factor for low lying Cayman. So not out of the woods.

After Cayman, it is the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now the center is expected to make landfall about 70 miles south of Cozumel Friday morning (see the closest point of approach calculator.

I am still trying to gather more reports from Grenada and St.Vincent and Grenadines from my local hurricane correspondents. Stays safe everybody, don't do stupid things. -Gert

PS. People know I do hate to ask for donations, but they are really needed to keep this website going. You can donate here.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024 22:27PM EDT - Barreling Beryl

Good evening,

Cat 4 Hurricane Beryl is still steaming through the Caribbean like someone stole the armored truck money at 22 mph according to the latest update by the NHC. Interesting how a system traveling this fast can hold its own but when you're well formed and shutting out all outside influences, except increasing wind shear, you just keep trucking and that is what Beryl is doing.

Sadly causing deaths and severe destruction in Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the only silver lining was it was moving quickly. A mere 30 minutes via a direct hit on the island of Carricaou along with Union Island, the southernmost island of the Grenadines 10 miles to the north resulted in a complete flattening, akin to Hurricane Irma turning Barbuda into a large sand spit in 2017.

While an eyewall replacement cycle, shared in my previous post did occur, it was early and over very quickly allowing Beryl to regain steam and then some before impact. Now, after passing through her destructive and deadly course through the Windwards as a Cat 4, she did briefly reaching 165 mph sustained Cat 5 winds with up to 200 mph gusts, Now down to 150 mph which really doesn't make a bunch of difference, she is on her way for a date with Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. First Jamaica tomorrow night and the Caymans the next. The Dominican Republic is receiving heavy rainfall and Haiti will as well as Beryl continues on a slow NW climbing in latitude trek for now.

A close brush or direct hit on the southern coast of Jamaica is forecast as a Cat 3. Many residents along Kingstons coast and harbor are fairly complacent according to news reports plus many business owners will not leave for fear of looting afterwards. I understand but your life is not worth staying where the wind and storm surge will inundate you tomorrow night.

Down the road, the Caymans are expected to be spared the eye and brunt but passing just 70 miles south will pose serious issues surge wise and even wind wise. The hurricane magnet this year, so far, courtesy of strong high pressure to the north everywhere, is the Yucatan Peninsula. A Cat 1 or maybe Cat 2 strike is logical. Following Beryl's trip across the peninsula, emerging into the Bay of Campeche, a northern Mexico or SW Texas landfall is in the making, at least for now as a strong TS or Cat 1.

96L is no longer a threat to develop according to the NHC basically staying a strong tropical wave in Beryl's wake. In the meantime, more waves are lined up.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Tuesday, July 2, 2024 08:09AM PDT - Category 5 Hurricane Beryl

Beryl is speeding at 22 mph west northwest through the Caribbean Sea towards it next target... Instead of weakening after it crossed the islands, it actually became even stronger. Beryl is now a category 5 hurricane, packing 160 mph sustained winds. A bit earlier in the day it peaked at 165 mph. Hopefully the weakening trend continues, but can it be a bit faster please. It will say again what many others have said, 'unprecedented'.

The forecasted track is trending a bit northward, while earlier it looked that the storm would stay at least 50 miles south of Jamaica, now it looks a lot closer. The current closest point of approach with Kingston, Jamaica is only 18 miles in 30 hours..., basically a direct hit. Beryl's path looks very similar to Ivan back in 2004 as Krishna pointed out on the Jamaica page. However, Ivan passed Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane, Beryl should be weaker, a Category 4, still a major hurricane... But keep in mind that Jamaica will be experiencing the strong northern side of the hurricane.

It is also getting too close for comfort to the Cayman Islands. The closest point of approach to Grand Cayman is only 40 miles in 45 hours. At that time though it is expected that the hurricane has further weakened to 'just' a Category 3.

I don't have to tell you all that preparation is key. Don't think you are safe, since hurricanes are unpredictable. Just a slight wobble to the north and it is a whole different picture. I didn't even mention Hispaniola, although the center of the storm will pass about 140 miles south of it, its torrential rain will definitely have a big effect. We know from the past that Haiti doesn't deal well with a lot of rain, and water, not wind, is the biggest killer with hurricanes... Stay safe everybody. Don't do stupid things! -Gert

Monday, July 1, 2024 10:10AM PDT - Carriacou

Beryl is moving through the islands right now. The 11AM NHC Update said: ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON CARRIACOU ISLAND... and ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL STRONGER... Not good. Maximum sustained winds are 150 mph, a strong Category 4 hurricane. At least it is moving fast and it will be over soon. At this time the center has moved to the west of Carriacou already. Hope to hear some news from them soon. But with power out, it might be a while. "The cone of silence". A scary time for many. I do know someone on Carriacou and see if I can get some info. Also hope to hear from Grenada as well. The northern part should be hard hit, as well as the Grenadines Islands to the north. See the impressive loop on Brian McNoldy's blog, of which I captured a frame below, when Carriacou was in the eye. -Gert

PS1: Before people start freaking out that another hurricane is underway: yes, there is an area of interest out in the Atlantic, and yes, it is taking a similar, but more northernly track, but NO, as of now it is not expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the islands.
PS2: Remember, this website is made possible through donations from you.

- - - Carriacou inside Beryl's eye [frame of loop created by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School] - - -

Sunday, June 30, 2024 18:42PM EDT - Dangerous Bad Beryl

Good evening,

They say many animals and people for that matter who are pretty and beautiful to look at are dangerous in some manner. Many occupants of the sea are a perfect example. Usually, the better and more colorful looking they are, the more dangerous they are. This goes for hurricanes as well. Hurricane Beryl is a dangerous and potentially life threatening Cat 4 hurricane having ramped up from a TD to a hurricane in the space of 24 hours. This is June. Not September. However, conditions have been ripe for the picking with these September like conditions in June, now July and dangerously satellite beautiful Beryl has taken full advantage of them. Chances at reaching Cat 5 status have leveled off, possibly due to a rise in wind shear. Really doesn't matter much as a high end Cat 4 will not be much different from a minimal Cat 5 only classification wise.

About 230 miles SE of Barbados and having slowed forward speed a few mph to 18, Beryl is still making a beeline for the southern Windward Islands. Numerous watches and warnings from Dominica to Tobago have been issued but the same 4 larger islands are still in the bullseye with a wobble here or there. The northern coast of Venezuela and the ABC Islands will also feel indirect effects with coastal erosion, rain squalls, rip currents, and high surf. Storm surge and heavy rain will be prominent for all but the winds will do catastrophic damage within 50-75 miles of the eye since she has expanded her eye and windfield although still a compact storm. The southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti also have been issued tropical storm watches as Beryl has climbed slowly from a due west trek to a slightly NW path. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the western end of Cuba and the Isle of Youth all will be under the gun later this week with a possibility of a Texas strike if the ridge weakens in time. If not, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula (the storm magnet this year so far) will be under the gun again.

With not much in her way, the islands can only hope for an eyewall replacement cycle to commence close to impact thereby slightly reducing the effects upon landfall. This will not change much but every sliver of hope is worthy of storm appreciation.

I will chat about 96L and its chances in the Caribbean tomorrow. I will say this system is expected to trek more northerly than Beryl at the moment. One good thing is Beryl's upwelling of colder waters should hamper this systems development.

94L, over in the Bay of Campeche, is now a depression and might make a very brief appearance as a TS before plowing into Mexico drenching an already saturated area from the previous 2 systems. Flooding and landslides are expected, again.

Prayers to our fellow southern islanders and hope they have prepared as best as they can. The boaties, hopefully, are not riding this one out or they might be found floating or maybe not be found at all. Beryl is going to be a very bad girl.

Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave.

Sunday, June 30, 2024 09:19AM PDT - Category 4

Not surprisingly with the warm ocean waters, Beryl exceeded expectations and is now a Category 4 hurricane! Not good. It is still moving fast westward, albeit a bit more south of the earlier forecasted track. This means that Beryl is an extremely dangerous storm barreling towards Barbados, Grenada and St.Vincent and Grenadines. Since it is a bit further south, it looks better for Barbados, but worse for Grenada. The northern part of the storm is a bit stronger than the southern part, so no-one is out of the woods yet. See below the closest point of approach of Beryl with Grenada, just 27 miles/43 km to the north, that is relative to the airport on the southern part of the islands. So it will be closer than you think. And that is the eye of the storm, as you can see on the image, a hurricane is not a point! Stay safe everybody! Don't do stupid things. -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach of Beryl with Grenada [June 30, 9:17PDT] - - -

Saturday, June 29, 2024 15:38PM PDT - Beryl

Last night tropical depression 2 was upgraded to tropical storm Beryl, and it is now already a hurricane! It is quite unusual to see a hurricane east of the islands this time of the year because the ocean normally hasn't warmed up too much. But this year it is different with the record high sea surface temperatures. According to Brian McNoldy this is indeed the furthest east a hurricane has ever formed for the time of the year (read more on how unusual it is on his blog...

Fast moving Beryl is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane before it even reaches the islands! Right now it is forecasted to track just 50 miles south of Barbados early Monday as a Category 3 storm. Then tracking over St.Vincent and the Grenadines, just north of Grenada. Check how far the eye of the storm can be from your island, use the closest point of approach-tool on this website. Since the storm is wobbling a bit be prepared for deviations of the forecasted track. Also, don't focus too much on the exact path. A Category 3 major hurricane is not a point, its effects are felt well north or south of the track! So, not surprisingly hurricane watches and warnings have been posted already. See the advisories for more info.

I just want to reiterate the key messages from the 5PM advisories:
1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Hurricane Watch and Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands.
2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday.
3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast.

Even though it is still 'just' June, take this storm seriously! Esp. since models are in close agreement. If you are in the cone of uncertainty you have to take your precautions now! Good luck everybody, and stay safe!

See also Dave's post just below this one. We did post at the same time. His focus always differs a bit from mine, so please read his post as well... -Gert

Saturday, June 29, 2024 18:38PM EDT - Beryl and beyond

Good evening everyone,

From a benign start to a now projected major hurricane after crossing the MDR in June no less, is a sobering thought for the rest of the season and a dangerous situation upcoming for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. vincent and the Grenadines, and even Grenada.

Located approx 10.2N 49.7W, about 700 miles ESE of Barbados, moving at a good clip of 22mph,and moving due west with a few wobbles here and there, now Hurricane Beryl is traversing untapped record warm SST's while taking advantage of wind shear actually behind it for the time being, a dire lack of protective Saharan dust and nothing in her projected path at this moment to deter her from rapidly intensifying into a Cat 3 with remoteness to a Cat 4 possibility. When I share get prepared early, this is a scenario, albeit very rare, when you should have. History does repeat itself. In June 1933, the farthest east hurricane to form in the MDR struck Trinidad/Tobago and caused immense damage, 91 years ago. While Trinidad/Tobago will be on the weakest south side of this storm, it will still have coastal effects. A wobble to the south deviating from it's projected path will affect Grenada and Trinidad even more so vigilance is of the utmost.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Barbados while the westerly islands of St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada are under hurricane watches which will be upgraded shortly. Extrapolating the track using the tools here, if it stays the course the next day or so, the closest point of approach to Barbados is approx 55 miles, St. Lucia is approx 70 miles, Grenada approx 62 miles and St. Vincent and the Grenadines a very dangerous approx 24 miles. Beryl is supposed to remain a small, compact hurricane as shared in my previous post but devastating nonetheless with the islands so close together. Hopefully, Beryl misses all these wickets altogether.

Down the road, after passing through the islands, Beryl will set her sights on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands first with less direct impacts expected in the DR and Haiti although flooding rains will be a good probability. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands look to take the brunt of a weaker Beryl due to the wind shear shifting from behind to the forefront from the west even though the SST's are basically a hot tub waiting to wade in for a hurricane. After those interactions, it depends on any weakness developing which would turn Beryl more to the NW and North putting the western GOMEX into play. Time will tell as it's too early for that.

94L, currently over the Yucatan peninsula, still has a shot at depression status over well traveled waters already in the Bay of Campeche but will be short lived at best before plowing into Mexico and portions of Central America with torrential rains over an already saturated area.

Behind Beryl is another lowrider with early evil intentions but for now, all eyes are on Beryl and rightly so. The islands under watches get your preparations done and done quickly. Beryl isn't playing. Barbados, which doesn't see many like this at all, get ready for hopefully a brush by but I think Beryl will get a bit closer than projected.

There's more to discuss what's following up behind Beryl but that will be for another day. Right now, all eyes are Beryl-wise.

Stay safe and prepared! Prayers for our fellow Caribbean family down south!

Dave

Friday, June 28, 2024 06:21AM EDT - 2 MDR storms in June?

Good morning,

With only several days left in June, depending on formation speed, we could have 2 MDR storms in June, a rarity indeed. We definitely will have one shortly with the name of Beryl and the Windward Islands including Barbados should be on high alert and preparations rushed to completion in anticipation of 95L emerging from her cocoon. The Bermuda High this season is strong and farther east which has suppressed any system so far from moving in any direction but westerly. Hence, our early season lowriders.

Generally moving west at about 17 mph, 95L, not designated yet a depression or TS, is on the verge of becoming either/or. A recent satellite overpass (ASCAT) reveals a well defined low level circulation which combined with persistent convection plus an expanding windfield denotes upgrading shortly. At current speed, soon to be Beryl will approach the Windward Islands Monday into Tuesday next week with Barbados seeing effects Sunday night into Monday. A small, yet compact hurricane is forecast as and as we all know who have experienced these kinds of systems, they can fluctuate quickly in intensity. Plus, the Windwards are not so far spread apart so any wobbling could drastically affect the track so all should be prepared and vigilant. Intensity, at this moment, is for Beryl to become a Cat 1 with a decent possibility of a Cat 2. Recon is expected Sunday to investigate but they may move it up to Saturday. Hopefully they do so we can get a better handle on Beryl's intentions and status.

Down the road it appears the graveyard of the eastern Caribbean will not have much effect on Beryl as the strong sinking air traditionally occurring at this time of year is light at best. So, that means on a slowly rising Beryl, Jamaica and the Caymans should be on alert. After that, Cuba and quite possibly the GOMEX as weaknesses may develop at that time allowing a turning to the NW and N. Time will tell on all of this.

Possible 96L, if it survives the outflow from 95L being lower in latitude by the ITCZ, could be a player for all to watch out for with better chances to move more northerly earlier than 95L.

Potential 97L is looking impressive as well, splashing down off the African coastline with a few others, impressive as well, lined up behind it.

94L meanwhile cruising towards a date with the Yucatan peninsula is expected to form a depression at least and a low end TS once it gets to the Bay of Campeche, the site of our first 2 landfalling systems which bodes ill will in those same areas as the grounds are already saturated with flooding and landslides probable. Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, the Yucatan and southern Mexico will all experience in some areas of their countries heavy flooding rains over the next 3-4 days.

Stay safe and prepared!!

Dave

Thursday, June 27, 2024 20:45PM EDT - Southerly Danger

Good evening to all.

I will be posting an update early tomorrow morning as I wait for some of the models to finish plus the latest satellite imagery and passes.

Regardless,as shared in my last post, get prepared now if you haven't already, and while not cut in stone yet with many variables, this will be a rough period in the southern islands within the next 4-5 days spending speed wise.

Stay safe, prepared, and have a good night.

Dave

Tuesday, June 25, 2024 18:54PM EDT - Wave train is early

Good evening,

The 2 systems that crash landed into Northern Mexico and Texas brought some well needed drought relief with unfortunately flooding due to the hard, pancaked ground devoid of most moisture for months. Too much in too little time of a usually good thing. If it had been soaking, steady rain, the flooding outcome would have been much different.

Now we have another potential Bay of Campeche crasher brewing and struggling north of the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao). If it can fathom a way to get through the Eastern Caribbean graveyard of tropical systems, then it has a decent chance of formation once it crosses the Yucatan drenching Belize, maybe Nicaragua, Honduras, and Mexico in the process. Mexico City could surely use a copious shot of rains but then again, flooding and landslides would be a grave issue. We shall see as it traverses the Caribbean quite quickly as well at around 25 mph which is also inhibiting it getting its act together. While giving the ABC Islands a rare dosage of tropical moisture, it is also gaining slightly in latitude so Jamaica, the Caymans and Cuba should also be in for squally, windy activity.

Off to our east, a bit early in the season, we have seen several tropical waves already moving swiftly and low riding. The one in the Caribbean is actually a mix of 2 waves with the one behind catching up to it. Even with the warmer than usual waters, low wind shear, and favorable outflow, none have developed when they could have because our early season friend is in full bloom: Saharan Dust. Drying out the atmosphere creating very low humidity levels surrounding these systems, the moisture they need just isn't there. That may change as the season marches on as we have seen systems blossom even in the face of dust and high wind shear.

The wave just off Africa approx 28W moving west at 10 knots looked much more impressive this morning but has been relegated to a shell of his overnight and morning self while still keeping parts together. Down the road around 35-40W development has been hinted at by many of the models. If it stays a low rider, that will affect Trinidad/Tobago and Grenada down the road with northern Venezuela getting a bite. If the high pressure ridge weakens, then it will gain some latitude right into the killer dust. Behind this one are more lined up already so the train is motivated and it will not be stopping for a few months.

Prepare people. Take some time to get your plans and supplies together. This just doesn't go for the tropics, it goes for the GOM, Bermuda, and the east coast and surprisingly, the Canadian Maritimes. Speaking of, there's a possibility of a spin up between Bermuda and those Maritimes in the next week if the Gulf Stream and other conditions are taken advantage of.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

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Tuesday, June 18, 2024 20:25PM EDT - Heating up albeit slowly

Good evening,

With an early non existent start to the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season despite expectations of hyperactiveness starting in May, we now have a few blips on the screen albeit minor to start in intensity but with flooding and fatalities already in their wake. .

PTC#1: Now expected to become our first named system, TS Alberto will be a short-lived name with some heavy effects, especially to its north and west. TS warnings are in effect from the Texas coastline south of Houston into Mexico. Already raising havoc with deadly effects in El Salvador and Guatemala via heavy rains ahead of landfall along the Mexican coast as a low or TS, the heaviest action is expected to the north into Texas with reaching effects into Louisiana initially. Even if this does not consolidate with a closed circulation, the results will be the same. Coastal flooding will be an issue along the low lying barrier islands with flooding an issue inland plus the strongest winds expected to the north northwest as well.

Hurricane hunters are investigating to check on all the conditions in advance of expected landfall tomorrow morning. The silver lining is the drought in the SW part of Texas will be alleviated for the most part. The problem is too much rainfall all at once will result in flooding and probably more fatalities. Houston, especially prone to flooding, looks to get a good slug coming in now ahead.

After this system has made its impact, groundhog day might manifest itself later this week with another system possibly taking the same track as the first. Details on this one are too far out to specify but models are in good agreement there will be another system in the Bay of Campeche on the weekend.

Meanwhile, close to the Bahamas, we have another system with potential to become a weak TS by landfall but doubtful with the jet stream dip. Expected to take a NNW trek, regardless of formation, it should bring heavy surf to the southern east coast and heavy rains to parts of central and northern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. A bit early to tell exactly though so we shall monitor how the potential development progresses. Looks to be a wet next 5-7 days along the SE coasts. Hopefully, it veers more northerly since South Florida doesn't need anymore rain for a while due to its recent flooding event.

With a ramping up of activity, it's time to get your storm preparations finalized or in gear. With a forecast of a hyperactive season, complacency is not an option.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, June 17, 2024 13:48PM PDT - First storm?

Although a hyper-active season is forecasted we still don't have our first named storm. According to Brian McNoldy's blog this is the lates since 2014, when the first storm formed on July 1. But now we have two areas of interest:

The first one (Invest 91L) is not surprisingly in the Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean has been plenty warm for a long time now. It is not moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to make landfall as a web storm in Mexico. At this time it is not expected to drift too much north so that it would make landfall in Texas.

The other area of interest is east of the Bahamas. The NHC gives it a low chance of becoming something, but it is expected to make landfall in Florida/Georgia or North Carolina. The storm is not as wet as 91L. See below the 7 day forecast from NHC. Just a little teaser for us, to make us aware of what will eventually head our way. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

- - - Seven Day Forecast (June 17, see NHC for the current one) - - -

Wednesday, June 5, 2024 20:00PM EDT - Quiet now but....

Good soggy evening from St. Thomas, VI,

Not a tropical storm or depression but the blobs over the VI and the DR are producing heavy downpours and a flash flood warning is in effect here per the NWS until 8 pm tonight. Puerto Rico has seen some heavy rains especially on the eastern end as well. Our water and power authority has been having major issues (they have for the 35 years I have been here so nothing has changed there) but the outages are not caused by the storms. This does not help the stormy situation and bodes ill going into hurricane season.

Speaking of which, as shared previously by Gert and myself, it portends to be an active, if not hyperactive season. So far, surprisingly enough, there have been no named storms or even depressions. That's due mainly to very strong wind shear, a low lying jet stream assisting that wind shear, and the omnipresent Saharan Dust, which has been layered across the tropical Atlantic so far. However, these features do not affect the GOMEX and the SW Caribbean as much and that's where the "fun" might begin starting next week as the jet stream and accompanying wind shear lift off to the north.

So, in a nutshell, look for the possibility of activity moving into South Florida next week to start from the SW Caribbean, followed by another possibility from the third or fourth tropical wave coming from Africa. The Florida possibility could actually be moved west to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama but the high is not forecast to be strong enough to shove it that far. Either way, it portends to be a wet middle of next week and maybe stormy depending. A bit early to tell. The initial waves coming across the Atlantic will almost but not definitely get beat up by the wind shear and Saharan Dust but they are the vanguard taking one for the team, clearing the way forward.

So look for some probable activity the last few weeks of June to jumpstart the season. As always, awareness, not complacency is necessary. Just because it has started off negligible does not mean it will stay that way and will take only one to remind you. It's time still to get prepared, a plan ready, pets, kids, parents and neighbors, etc... This is not an alarmist message. This is the truth. Having been through every storm here in the VI but 2 since 1989, plus a few Florida ones in recent years, I can attest. Marilyn, Irma and Maria. Pretty names. Destructive and deadly natures.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Sunday, June 2, 2024 08:10AM EDT - 2024

Good morning my time or good day wherever you may be,

Was traveling yesterday so I was unable to post at that time. Welcome back to another edition (2024) of the Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season. With La Nina conditions expected to increase and the SST's already reaching record levels, it is projected to be a rabbit race of a season aka very active. What is weird actually is that nothing has formed in the month of May although conditions are already ripe for the picking, especially in the GOMEX (Gulf of Mexico). That's ok for the time being. However, ramp up time will soon come.

Speaking of time will soon come, now is the time to prepare and get your storm supplies in order and readily available. Also, evacuation plans should be updated and ready if you live in a place that necessitates evacuation. Flood prone, storm surge low lying land, etc.... You can go on the web for a complete list of hurricane prep supplies which are numerous which can save lives and also make the transition from a hurricane strike to just basic living more manageable and tolerable.

As Gert shared, let's wish for the fish!!

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave

Saturday, June 1, 2024 14:05PM PDT - Start of 2024 Hurricane Season

June 1st... we know what that means. Start of hurricane season, which runs to November 30. This is the 29th year of stormCARIB! If you haven't heard it already, it is expected to be a busy one, due to record high Atlantic seawater temperatures and a looming La Nina (se my previous posts below and many articles on the web). At least we haven't had any storms before the official start yet. However, because of the already warm ocean temperatures we might have some big ones earlier in the season and it might be busier near the end of the season...

Below is the list of names for this season plus pronunciation. It is rotated every 6 years. There are two new names, Francine and Milton, after Florence and Michael were retired in 2018.

     Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     Alberto       al-BAIR-toe        Beryl         BEHR-ril
     Chris         kris               Debby         DEH-bee
     Ernesto       er-NES-toh         Francine      fran-SEEN
     Gordon        GOR-duhn           Helene        heh-LEEN
     Isaac         EYE-zik            Joyce         joyss
     Kirk          kurk               Leslie        LEHZ-lee 
     Milton        MIL-ton            Nadine        nay-DEEN     
     Oscar         AHS-kur            Patty         PAT-ee
     Rafael        Rah-fah-EL         Sara          SAIR-uh
     Tony          TOH-nee            Valerie       VAH-lur-ee
     William       Will-yum

If we run out of names we won't use Alpha, Beta, etc. from the Greek alphabet anymore, but the names will come from a pre-defined alternate list of names (see here). The main reason behind this is that in case of a significant storm the name can be retired. Hopefully we won't get that far. But as I always say, better be prepared!!! Now is a good time to start!!! Stay safe everybody this season and hoping for a lot of fish storms! -Gert

Thursday, May 23, 2024 10:39AM PDT - Another 'above-normal' forecast

NOAA just issued their forecast for the season. They say that there is an 85% of an above-normal activity season with 17-25 tropical storms, of which 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes (14.4, 7.2 and 3.2 is normal, resp.). They blame the near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the likely development of La Nina which enhances storm formation due to reduced wind shear. Apart from La Nina, 'near-record' temperatures will become more normal due to human induced climate change, so it does not bode well for the future... You can read more about the record heat in Michael Lowry's post on Eye on the Storm/Yale Climate Connections. Regardless, chances are still quite low that your island will get hit, but they are increasing. See the table in my previous post.

In NOAA's news release they also talk about some improved communications (for example, all advisories will now be in Spanish as well, not just the Public Advisory, also tropical storm watches and warnings can now be issued any time instead of in a regular advisory). They also mention new tools and system upgrades. Hope it all helps since the main key to minimize losses is being well prepared.

Lastly, there is a little disturbance northwest of Haiti. It is moving to the east. Although it is not expected to develop into something, heavy rains are still expected over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Stay safe everybody, and start some preparations now! Hurricane seasan is just over a week away... -Gert

Monday, April 8, 2024 10:18AM PDT - Another 'hyper-active' forecast

Tropical Storm Risk, recently absorbed by EuroTempest, a European storm and weather risk management services to the (re)insurance market, has issued their forecast for the upcoming season. It is exactly the same in number of storms as the one by Klotzbach et al's (see earlier post). They also call for a 'hyper-active' season with 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.

They say: "The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for a hyper-active season is our expectation that the warm sea surface temperature anomalies currently present in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) and Caribbean Sea will persist through August-September 2024, and a moderate strength La Nina event will develop through spring/early summer and persist through summer and autumn.". Indeed, high water temperatures and La Nina conditions means bad news for us. Read the full report here.

Another 'hint' to start preparing now! In reality there is still a relatively small chance that a 'big one' will end up on your doorstep (see the table in my earlier post), so don't get too worked up about these forecasts. But you will feel better if you are well prepared. This might be a good year to invest in those hurricane shutters, if you don't have them already... -Gert

Thursday, April 4, 2024 10:15AM PDT - Extremely Active Hurricane Season forecasted...

Today Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued there well respected forecast for the upcoming season. And it is not looking good... This may come as no surprise, since last year we had the battle between El Nino, which decreases hurricane activity, and warm sea surface waters, which increases hurricane activity. El Nino lost... This year we won't have an El Nino, but La Nina conditions, which normally enhances hurricane activity, plus the record warm sea surface temperatures are still here!

The forecast calls for 23 (!) named stormes (14.4 is normal), of which 11 are expected to reach hurricane strength (7.2 is normal) and 5 reach major hurricanes status (3.2 is normal). This is the highest number of storms ever forecasted by Colorado State in April...

The major drivers are La Nina and high sea surface temperatures. Although we are still in an El Nino, it is expected to fade in the next few weeks, and transform to La Nina conditions at the peak of hurricane season. During a La Nina vertical wind shear is lower in the Atlantic, making it easier for tropical storms to develop and become stronger. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently at record levels, see for example the last plot on the my satellite imagery page (yellow/orange means above normal, it looks like 1-2° Celcius or more above normal!). And it is expected to stay above normal, giving more fuel to hurricanes...

Normally the April forecast doesn't have much skill, but this year they are more confident that there will indeed be an active season. It is hard to argue otherwise, with record sea surface temperatures and an La Nino, two of the main drivers in hurricane activity...

What does it mean for the Caribbean... For the Caribbean region the probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the region (a big area) is 66% (normal is 47%, last year it was 49%). In the table below I summarized the chance of a major hurricane moving within 50 miles of a specific Caribbean island/country compared to the long term average (1880-2020) (source: https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html). Note that some of the numbers are biased by area, for example The Bahamas. In any case, just one big storm in your backyard is more than enough. It seems that this is the season that you invest in some good hurricane protection.... Preparation will be key this season.

A good writeup can also be found on Jeff Masters' Eye on the Storm blog at Yale Climate Connections. It does not really make you happy reading it... -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.