Tropical Storm Rose

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Public Advisory:
 
Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021
 
...ROSE BECOMES THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE BUSY 2021 
HURRICANE SEASON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 29.9 West. Rose is
moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue
through Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is expected through Monday. 
By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less 
conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake


Aviso Público:

Tormenta Tropical Rose Advertencia Numero   3
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL       AL172021
Traduccion por el SNM San Juan PR 
800 PM CVT domingo 19 de septiembre de 2021 

...ROSE SE CONVIERTE EN LA DECIMOSEPTIMA TORMENTA NOMBRADA DE LA
TEMPORADA DE HURACANES ACTIVA 2021...  


RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...14.3N 29.9O
CERCA DE 370 MI...595 KM AL OSO DEL EXTREMO SUR DE LAS ISLAS DE DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NNO O 330 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS
 
 
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No existen vigilancias ni avisos costeras en efecto.
 
 
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 
Rose estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 14.3 norte, 
longitud 29.9 oeste. Rose se mueve hacia el norte noroeste a cerca 
de 16 mph (26 km/h). Se pronostica un movimiento hacia el noroeste 
comenzando esta noche y continuando hasta el miercoles.
 
Los vientos maximos sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 40 mph (65 
km/h) con rafagas mas fuertes. Se espera algun fortalecimiento hasta 
el lunes. Para el martes, se espera que las condiciones ambientales 
se tornen menos conducentes para desarrollo, y se pronostica que 
Rose comience una tendencia de debilitamiento lento.

Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 35 
millas (55 km) desde el centro. 

La presion central minima estimada es de 1005 mb (29.68 pulgadas).
 
 
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Ninguno.
 
 
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Proxima advertencia completa a las 200 AM CVT.
 


Discussion:
TCDAT2  
   
Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number   3  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021  
800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021  
   
Satellite images show that deep convection has increased in   
coverage near the low-level center during the last 6 hours, while   
the overall structure of the tropical cyclone has also improved.   
Based on the improved organization and consensus T-2.5 numbers from   
TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, making Rose   
the seventeenth named storm of the busy 2021 Atlantic hurricane   
season.  Only 2005 and 2020 have had the seventeenth named storm on   
an earlier date.  
  
The 12-hour motion is north-northwest, or 330/14.  However, Rose   
appears to be moving more in a northwest direction during the past   
few hours.  This is probably the start of a northwest motion   
that should continue through day 4 as the system moves along the   
southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that   
extends from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands.  A turn to the   
north is predicted in about 5 days, as Rose comes under the   
influence of a strong mid-level trough approaching from the   
northwest.  No significant changes were made to the previous track   
forecast.  
  
Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the  
next day or so, with low wind shear, SSTs near 27C, and sufficient   
mid-level atmospheric moisture.  Therefore, a little more   
strengthening is shown compared to the previous NHC forecast.  The   
new NHC forecast is in agreement with the various consensus aids,   
but slightly below the SHIPS model, in deference to the global   
models which show a weaker cyclone.  Westerly wind shear will   
likely increase in about 36 hours as a strong upper-level trough   
approaches from the northwest.  Given that the cyclone is forecast  
to remain rather small, it will likely be vulnerable to the higher   
shear so weakening is forecast in the 36-72 h time period.  Beyond   
day 3, a further increase in wind shear is expected to cause Rose to   
weaken to a tropical depression.  Although not explicitly forecast,   
it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5   
days if the shear is too much for the system to handle.  
   
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
   
INIT  19/2100Z 14.3N  29.9W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 12H  20/0600Z 15.9N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 24H  20/1800Z 17.9N  33.3W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 36H  21/0600Z 20.0N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 48H  21/1800Z 22.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 60H  22/0600Z 23.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 72H  22/1800Z 24.7N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 96H  23/1800Z 26.7N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
120H  24/1800Z 28.7N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
   
$$  
Forecaster Hagen/Blake
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE                                           


Forecast/Advisory:
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  29.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  29.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  29.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N  31.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N  33.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N  34.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N  36.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N  37.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.7N  38.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.7N  40.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.7N  41.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  29.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE


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