Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

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Public Advisory:
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022
 
...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS 
BECOMING SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 76.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a continued mostly westward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea this evening through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua 
or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system
approaches Central America.  Weakening is expected while the system
crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday
once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.
 
Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is
expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in areas of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Nicaragua late Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected over San Andres Island on Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas
in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along
the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven



Discussion:
TCDAT2  
   
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  13  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022  
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022  
   
Deep convection associated with the disturbance is minimal, and in   
fact one could argue that the system lacks sufficient convection   
for classification via the Dvorak technique.  The main band of   
shower activity is located well to the north of the location of   
the low-level vorticity maximum.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters   
were not able to close off a definite center of circulation,   
although they did report some light southwest winds over the   
southern portion of the system just to the north of Colombia.    
Observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the   
maximum winds remain near 35 kt.  Since the models generally agree   
that the system will slow its forward speed beginning tonight, it is   
still likely that it will develop a better-defined low level   
circulation soon.  
  
The initial motion estimate remains at 270/17 for now.  A   
mid-tropospheric ridge extending southwestward into the   
northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the disturbance to move a   
little south of west for the next 12 to 24 hours.  Thereafter, a   
more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to result in a generally   
westward track across Central America and into the eastern Pacific.   
In 3 to 5 days, the system should move west-northwestward on the   
southwestern periphery of the ridge, to the south of Mexico.  The   
NHC track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected model   
consensus predictions.  
  
The environment for the system looks conducive for strengthening up   
to landfall, with very low vertical shear, warm waters, and a   
moist low- to mid-level air mass.  After weakening during   
its passage across Central America, re-strengthening is expected   
over the eastern Pacific.  The official intensity forecast is near   
the high end of the intensity model guidance.  
   
   
KEY MESSAGES:  
   
1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by  
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are  
expected.  
   
2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane  
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.  
   
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,  
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the  
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within  
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa  
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.  
   
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
   
INIT  30/2100Z 12.0N  75.8W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/0600Z 11.6N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/1800Z 11.3N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 36H  02/0600Z 11.3N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH  TS...INLAND
 48H  02/1800Z 11.4N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 60H  03/0600Z 11.8N  89.0W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 72H  03/1800Z 12.5N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 96H  04/1800Z 14.0N  97.2W   65 KT  75 MPH  CAT-1
120H  05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W   70 KT  80 MPH  CAT-1
   
$$  
Forecaster Pasch
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT2
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022               
2100 UTC THU JUN 30 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BLUEFIELDS     34  X   1( 1)  50(51)   6(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
BLUEFIELDS     50  X   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
BLUEFIELDS     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1  29(30)   8(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
LIMON          34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
2100 UTC THU JUN 30 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  75.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  75.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  74.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.6N  78.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.3N  81.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.4N  86.5W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.8N  89.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.5N  91.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N  97.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N  75.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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