TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023
Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm. Geostationary
satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the
northeast of the low-level center. Recent satellite-derived wind
data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and
winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT
observations.
The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe
moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge. By 60 h, the storm
should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it
reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to
the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5.
Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus
slowly strengthen in the next few days. This is possibly due to
some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air. Beyond day
3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough,
that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also
increase upper-level difluence. The intensity guidance generally
favors some slight intensification during this period. The latest
NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly
above the consensus aid, IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 15.4N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH TS
12H 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH TS
24H 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH TS
36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH TS
48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH TS
60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH TS
72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH TS
96H 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH TS
120H 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH TS
$$
Forecaster Bucci
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE... |