Tropical Storm Philippe

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Public Advisory:
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023
 
...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 40.9W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early
next week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci


Aviso Público:

BOLETÍN
Tormenta Tropical Philippe Advertencia Número   3
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL       AL172023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
1100 PM AST sábado 23 de septiembre de 2023
 
...PHILIPPE MOVIÉNDOSE HACIA EL OESTE...

 
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...15.4N 40.9O
ALREDEDOR DE 1125 MI...1810 KM O DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O O 265 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS
 
 
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
 
 
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical 
Philippe estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 15.4 norte, longitud 
40.9 oeste. Philippe se está moviendo hacia el oeste a cerca de 14 
mph (22 km/h). Se espera un movimiento continuado hacia el oeste con 
una velocidad de traslación ligeramente más lenta hasta principios 
de la próxima semana.
 
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con 
ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera un fortalecimiento gradual durante 
los próximos días.
 
Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 115 
millas (185 km) del centro. 
 
La presión central mínima estimada es de 1005 mb (29.68 pulgadas).
 
 
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Ninguno
 
 
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 AM AST.
 


Discussion:
TCDAT2  
   
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   3  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023  
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023  
   
Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm.  Geostationary   
satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the   
northeast of the low-level center.  Recent satellite-derived wind   
data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and   
winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak.  The initial   
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT   
observations.  
   
The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt.  This   
general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe   
moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge.  By 60 h, the storm   
should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it   
reaches a weakness in the ridge.  The latest track forecast is   
similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to   
the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5.  
  
Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus   
slowly strengthen in the next few days.  This is possibly due to   
some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air.  Beyond day   
3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough,   
that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also   
increase upper-level difluence.  The intensity guidance generally   
favors some slight intensification during this period.  The latest   
NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly   
above the consensus aid, IVCN.    
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
   
INIT  24/0300Z 15.4N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 12H  24/1200Z 15.5N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 24H  25/0000Z 15.9N  44.8W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 36H  25/1200Z 16.3N  47.1W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 48H  26/0000Z 16.7N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 60H  26/1200Z 17.4N  50.7W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 72H  27/0000Z 18.3N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH  TS
 96H  28/0000Z 21.2N  53.9W   55 KT  65 MPH  TS
120H  29/0000Z 23.5N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH  TS
   
$$  
Forecaster Bucci
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  40.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  40.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  40.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N  42.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N  44.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N  47.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N  49.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N  50.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N  52.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.2N  53.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  40.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


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