Tropical Depression Twelve

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

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Public Advisory:
 
Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022
 
...DEPRESSION HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOR NOW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 32.5W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve 
was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 32.5 West. The 
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and 
a northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for 
the next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Slow weakening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become 
a remnant low in the next day or so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin


Aviso Público:

BOLETÍN
Depresion Tropical Doce Advertencia Numero 4
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL122022
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR 
1100 AM AST miércoles 05 de octubre de 2022
 
...DEPRESIÓN APENAS UN CICLÓN TROPICAL...
 
 
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...15.6N 32.0O
ALREDEDOR DE 530 MI...855 KM O DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS
 
 
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
 
 
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical 
Doce estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 15.6 Norte, longitud 32.0 
oeste. La depresión se mueve hacia el oeste-noroeste alrededor de 9 mph 
(15 km/h) y se espera que este movimiento continúe hasta el jueves.
 
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están alrededor de 35 mph (55 km/h) 
con ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un debilitamiento lento y se 
espera que la depresión se convierta en un residuo bajo para el 
jueves.
 
La presión mínima central es de 1007 mb (29.74 pulgadas).
 
 
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Ninguno.
 
 
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa es a las 500 PM AST.
 


Discussion:
TCDAT2  
   
Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   6  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022  
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022  
   
Occasional pulses of deep convection with cloud top temperatures   
below -70 C continue to occur near and to the northeast of the   
center of the tropical depression. We finally were able to receive   
some scatterometer data near the system, with the highest   
non-flagged wind retrievals of 28 and 32 kts from both ASCAT-B/C   
passes. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers have been   
decreasing, but in deference to the higher scatterometer data, the   
initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. The   
southwesterly vertical wind shear over the depression is now above   
30 kts, and is expected to increase further over the next 24 hours.   
This highly unfavorable environment should ultimately lead to the   
system's demise as the remaining deep convection is stripped   
completely away from the low-level circulation. The intensity   
forecast still shows the depression becoming a remnant low in 24   
hours and then opening up into a trough in 48 hours, though this   
could occur as soon as tomorrow morning.  
   
The depression has made a northward jog this evening, but smoothing  
out the 12 hour motion results in a northwest heading at 320/11 kt.  
A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue until  
the system becomes a remnant low or dissipates in 24-48 hours. The  
NHC track has been adjusted a bit northward due to the initial  
position, but ends up near the previous forecast track in about 48  
hours, following along with the consensus aids.  
   
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
   
INIT  06/0300Z 17.7N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
 12H  06/1200Z 18.7N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
 24H  07/0000Z 19.4N  35.8W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 20.3N  38.2W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
   
$$  
Forecaster Papin
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122022               
0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122022
0300 UTC THU OCT 06 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  32.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  32.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  32.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.7N  33.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N  35.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N  38.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  32.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


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