Tropical Storm Philippe

Public Advisory: Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023 ...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 40.9W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.9 West. Philippe is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Aviso Público: BOLETÍN Tormenta Tropical Philippe Advertencia Número 3 Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL172023 Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR 1100 PM AST sábado 23 de septiembre de 2023 ...PHILIPPE MOVIÉNDOSE HACIA EL OESTE... RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN ----------------------------------------------- LOCALIZACIÓN...15.4N 40.9O ALREDEDOR DE 1125 MI...1810 KM O DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O O 265 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS -------------------- No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto. DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS ---------------------- A las 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Philippe estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 15.4 norte, longitud 40.9 oeste. Philippe se está moviendo hacia el oeste a cerca de 14 mph (22 km/h). Se espera un movimiento continuado hacia el oeste con una velocidad de traslación ligeramente más lenta hasta principios de la próxima semana. Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 40 mph (65 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera un fortalecimiento gradual durante los próximos días. Los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hasta 115 millas (185 km) del centro. La presión central mínima estimada es de 1005 mb (29.68 pulgadas). PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ---------------------- Ninguno PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA ------------- Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 AM AST.

Discussion: TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023 Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm. Geostationary satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the northeast of the low-level center. Recent satellite-derived wind data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT observations. The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt. This general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge. By 60 h, the storm should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5. Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus slowly strengthen in the next few days. This is possibly due to some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air. Beyond day 3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough, that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also increase upper-level difluence. The intensity guidance generally favors some slight intensification during this period. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly above the consensus aid, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.4N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH TS 12H 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH TS 24H 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH TS 36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH TS 48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH TS 60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH TS 72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH TS 96H 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH TS 120H 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH TS $$ Forecaster Bucci Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...

Wind Speed: PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Forecast/Advisory: TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 40.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI