Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto

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Public Advisory:

Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Pinar del Rio.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas in the
Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to Anclote River.  The Tropical
Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle has been
extended eastward to the Aucilla River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Crystal River,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Anclote River
* Aucilla River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 84.9 West. The storm
is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northward or
north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to
the northwest on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Alberto is expected to move near the western tip of Cuba this
afternoon, track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through
Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the
northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western
Cuba.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.  Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum
amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and
southern and southwest Florida.  Heavy rains will begin to affect
the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves
northward after landfall.  Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with
maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto
from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western
Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle.  Rainfall totals of 3
to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the
southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area in Cuba through this evening.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast
by Sunday night or early Monday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida late this afternoon through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Aviso Público:

Tormenta Subtropical Alberto Advertencia Intermedia Numero   4A
SNM Centro Nacional de Huracanes Miami FL       AL012018
Traducido por el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia San Juan PR 
700 AM CDT sabado 26 de mayo de 2018

...ALBERTO MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE HACIA EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO...
...SE ESPERA QUE LLUVIAS FUERTES AFECTEN EL OESTE DE 
CUBA...FLORIDA...Y LA COSTA NORESTE DEL GOLFO DURANTE EL FIN DE 
SEMANA....


RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC
------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.9 NORTE 85.1 OESTE 
CERCA DE 120 MI...195 KM ENE DE COZUMEL MEXICO
CERCA DE 70 MI...115 KM S DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA 
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H 
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...N O 10 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARES...29.68 PULGADAS   


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------    
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

El gobierno de Mexico ha descontinuado la Vigilancia de Tormenta 
Tropical para la Peninsula de Yucatan. 

RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclonica esta en efecto para...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida hasta la Desembocadura del Rio Mississippi

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical esta en efecto para...
* Provincia Pinar del Rio de Cuba
* Indian Pass Florida hasta Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lago Pontchartrain y Lago Maurepas

Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclonica significa que existe la 
posibilidad de inundaciones amenazantes a la vida, debido a un 
aumento de los niveles del agua moviendose hacia tiera adentro desde 
las costas, a traves de las areas indicadas durante las proximas 48 
horas. Para una descripcion de las areas bajo riesgo, favor de 
referirse a la Grafica de Marejada Ciclonica del Servicio Nacional 
de Meteorologia, disponible en hurricanes.gov.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de 
tormenta tropical son posibles en Cuba dentro del area bajo 
vigilancia dentro de las proximas 24 horas. 

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que condiciones de 
tormenta tropical son posibles en porciones de los Estados Unidos 
dentro del area bajo vigilancia dentro de las proximas 48 horas.

Para informacion especifica sobre la tormenta en su area dentro de 
los Estados Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos, favor 
de monitorear los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronostico 
local del Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia. Para informacion 
especifica sobre la tormenta en su area fuera de los Estados Unidos, 
favor de monitorear los productos emitidos por su oficina de 
servicio nacional de meteorologica.


DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
---------------------------------- 
A las 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Subtropical 
Alberto estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 20.9 norte, longitud 
85.1 oeste. La tormenta se esta moviendo hacia el norte a cerca de 9 
mph (15 km/h). Un giro hacia el norte o norte-noreste se anticipa 
hoy, seguido por un giro hacia el noroeste el domingo. En la 
trayectoria pronosticada, se espera que el centro de Alberto se 
mueva cerca del extremo oeste de Cuba hoy, se mueva a traves del 
este del Golfo de Mexico el sabado en la noche, y se aproxime a la 
costa norte del Golfo dentro del area bajo vigilancia el lunes en la 
noche. 

Los vientos maximos sostenidos permanecen a cerca de 40 mph (65 
km/h) con rafagas mas altas. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento 
gradual hasta que el sistema alcance la costa norte del Golfo para 
lunes en noche.  

Vientos de 40 mph se extienden hasta 140 millas (220 km) 
principalmente hacia el este del centro.

La presion minima central estimada basada en la data de una boya de 
NOAA es de 1005 mb (29.68 pulgadas).   


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ADENTRO
---------------------------------
LLUVIA: Se espera que Alberto produzca acumulaciones totales de 
lluvia de 10 a 15 pulgadas con totales aisladas de hasta 25 pulgadas 
a traves de porciones del oeste de Cuba. Estas lluvias podrian 
producir inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra 
amenazantes a la vida. Acumulaciones de lluvia de 3 a 7 pulgadas con 
cantidades maximas de hasta 10 pulgadas son posibles a traves de los 
Cayos de Florida y el sur y suroeste de Florida. Las lluvias fuertes 
comenzaran probablemente a afectar la region central del Golfo y el 
sureste de los Estados Unidos mas tarde este fin de semana y 
continuaran hasta principios de la semana proxima. El potencial de 
inundaciones aumentara a traves de la region a principios de la 
semana proxima ya que se pronostica que la velocidad de traslacion 
de Alberto disminuya cuando se mueva tierra adentro.  

VIENTO: Condiciones de tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del 
area bajo vigilancia en Cuba hoy. Condiciones de tormenta tropical 
son posibles en los Estados Unidos dentro del area bajo vigilancia 
comenzando el domingo.

MAREJADA CICLONICA: La combinacion de marejada ciclonica y la marea 
causara inundaciones en areas normalmente secas cerca de la costa 
por el aumento del agua moviendose tierra adentro desde las costas. 
El agua podria alcanzar las siguientes alturas sobre el nivel de 
tierra en algun lugar dentro de las areas indicadas si el maximo de 
la marejada ocurre al mismo tiempo que la marea alta...

Horseshoe Beach hasta la Desembocadura del Rio Mississippi...2 a 4 
pies

Los niveles de agua mas altos ocurrira a lo largo de la costa 
inmediata. Inundaciones relacionadas a marejada ciclonica dependera 
del horario de la marejada y el ciclo de la marea, y puede variar 
grandemente en distancias cortas. Para informacion especifica de su 
area, favor de referirse a los productos emitidos por su oficina de 
pronostico local del Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia.

TORNADOS: Un tornado o dos podrian ocurrir sobre los Cayos de 
Florida y partes del suroeste de Florida comenzando temprano esta 
noche o durante la noche. 

RESACAS: Resacas generadas por Alberto estan afectando porciones del 
la costa este de la Peninsula de Yucatan y el oeste de Cuba. Es 
posible que estas marejadas causen resacas y corrientes submarinas 
amenazantes a la vida. Es posible que condiciones de resacas 
peligrosas se desarrollen a lo largo de gran parte del centro y este 
de la Costa del Golfo de los Estados Unidos durante el fin de 
semana. Para mas informacion, favor de referirse a los productos 
emitidos por su oficina local de meteorologia.


PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA 
------------------- 
Proxima advertencia completa a las 1000 AM CDT. 


Discussion:
TCDAT1  
  
Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   5  
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018  
1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018  
  
There has been an increase in convection to the east and southeast  
of the center of Alberto this morning, however, the overall  
organization of the system has not changed much. Visible satellite  
imagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the  
circulation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could  
be forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba.  As suggested  
by the global models there could be several re-formations of or a  
discontinuity in the track of the low-level center today. Although  
there have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt  
intensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft  
has not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the  
overall increase in convection.  
  
A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the northwestern Gulf  
of Mexico is expected to sharpen the larger negatively tilted trough  
over the eastern Gulf, which is expected to cause the cyclone to  
deepen during the next 24 to 36 hours.  This trend is consistent  
with the global model guidance which unanimously strengthen Alberto  
through Sunday.  After that time, Alberto is expected to be  
co-located with the upper-level low which should result in some  
decrease in shear and a possible transition to a more tropical  
cyclone-like structure.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady  
strengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings  
Alberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening  
should occur after the center moves inland.  
  
Alberto is moving northward to north-northeastward at about 9 kt.  
The cyclone should continue on this general heading today, but it  
is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down on Sunday and  
Sunday night as it interacts with the mid- to upper-level  
trough/low over the Gulf.  The track guidance has shifted slightly  
eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted  
accordingly.  The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS  
models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA  
multi-model consensus.  The eastward adjustment in the track  
forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a  
portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the  
watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle.  
  
KEY MESSAGES:  
  
1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected  
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,  
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding  
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region  
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday  
and will continue into next week.  
  
2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are  
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast  
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of  
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in  
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are  
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of  
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local  
government officials.  
  
3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions  
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread  
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and  
tonight.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  26/1500Z 21.6N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 12H  27/0000Z 23.8N  84.6W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS
 24H  27/1200Z 26.0N  85.1W   45 KT  50 MPH  TS
 36H  28/0000Z 27.4N  86.0W   50 KT  60 MPH  TS...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 48H  28/1200Z 28.7N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH  TS...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 72H  29/1200Z 31.6N  87.7W   40 KT  45 MPH  TS...INLAND
 96H  30/1200Z 35.6N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...INLAND
120H  31/1200Z 39.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...INLAND
  
$$  
Forecaster Brown
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT1
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018               
1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  7   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NAPLES FL      34  3   9(12)   1(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  2  11(13)   2(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
VENICE FL      34  1  18(19)   5(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X  12(12)   8(20)   2(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   6( 6)  12(18)   4(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   7(32)   1(33)   X(33)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  11(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   4( 4)  21(25)  18(43)   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   9( 9)  30(39)  16(55)   4(59)   1(60)   X(60)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   2( 2)  20(22)  22(44)  10(54)   1(55)   X(55)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  25(39)  15(54)   1(55)   X(55)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   1(16)   X(16)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)  10(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   4(18)   X(18)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  14(24)   3(27)   1(28)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  23(32)  18(50)   2(52)   X(52)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  24(34)  18(52)   2(54)   X(54)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   1(17)   X(17)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   3( 3)  29(32)  23(55)  10(65)   1(66)   X(66)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  14(18)   6(24)   1(25)   X(25)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)  18(41)   2(43)   X(43)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  16(33)   2(35)   X(35)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  12(25)   1(26)   1(27)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)  11(27)   1(28)   X(28)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  13(24)   6(30)   X(30)   X(30)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   8(17)   2(19)   X(19)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 
HAVANA         34 17   1(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  7   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018
1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO ANCLOTE
RIVER.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CRYSTAL RIVER
FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA GRANDE TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO GRAND ISLE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN
48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  84.9W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  84.9W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  85.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.8N  84.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N  85.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.4N  86.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N  86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.6N  87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 35.6N  88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 39.0N  85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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