Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, Tropical Depression Gaston
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-13 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (15:45 UTC, 55 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Earl and the East Coast Since Earl is getting so close to the East Coast of the USA I have added cities in that region to the Closest Point of Approach calculator. Gert

Wednesday, September 1, 2010 23:30PM EDT - Interestingly Dangerous

Good evening!

 

For East Coast indications, Hurricane Earl continues to mystify the experts by intensifying in the face of dry air intervention which should tell them something they should already know: Weather is not an exact science and the force we label as Mother Nature has her own intentions in mind! Unfortunately, this scenario plays out again and again with too much reliance on technology and not enough attention to reality. Fortunately, anything hurricane related has improved many fold over the last 10 years but still, conjecture is what it is, conjecture. A mere 50 miles can make all the difference in the world like it did here in the Virgin Islands. Vegetation trashed to totally infrastructure trashed. Sounds like a big distance but it really isn't! And they say big things come in small packages!!!

 

With Earl headed up the East Coast and grabbing all of the media attention, TS Fiona is not the Fearless anymore but the Fizzeler! Still, until she vacates the area, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible with a potential threat to Bermuda later down the road but I wouldn't actually call her a threat even then. She looks lamer than TS Gaston!

 

Speaking of, TS Gaston is now the Caribbean's area of interest as well as he should be. If the ridge strengthens as it is forecast to, Gaston will be in the laps of the Northern Antilles between Tuesday night and Thursday as a strong Cat 2 or 3. He is getting ready to put his tux on and join the dance as a serious contender. If you thought Earl was easy and Fiona a joke, like I have heard many say, you ought to put your reality caps on. The potential here for this one is bad.

 

Speaking of potential: soon to be named Hermine has exited the African Coast and is ready to put on her party dress!

 

Chat tomorrow!!!

 

Dave

Wednesday, September 1, 2010 20:18PM EDT - Busy!

Good evening!

 

Just a quick note for now with more detail after 11 pm.

 

TS Fiona the Fearless has, for my purposes, degenerated into TS Fiona the Fragmented! This is the worse looking 60mph sustained wind, tropical storm I have ever seen. I've seen way better looking TD's!!!! However, since it is still officially classified this way, it is what it is. Extensive cloud cover and brief periods of activity is all that is left of Fiona here around the islands. Brief periods meaning isolated showers and thunderstorms.

 

Hurricane Earl is still the talk of the East Coast and if he speeds up, time will be of the essence which you will not have! Evacuation routes, mostly 2 lane highways, will become clogged and troublesome so if your close to the coast, you should think about leaving now. You could possibly get caught in the storm sitting in traffic! I-95 is not a coastal highway!

 

TS Gaston, a mere knight in waiting at the moment, has set an ominous course our way. Too early to tell his true intentions but early computer models have the eye of a Cat 2 hurricane, 33 miles from St. Thomas next Wednesday. Again, these long scale forecasts sometimes have huge error amounts of 200-400 hundred miles but it's not wise to count on error!!! Earl was a wakeup call and rightly so with so many naysayers and procrastinators. If you ween't prepared for whatever reason, do so.

 

Off to the African coast, potential Hermine, no, probable Hermine, has landed in the Atlantic. Igor is just waiting his turn.

 

More after 11!

 

Dave

 

 

Wednesday, September 1, 2010 11:12AM EDT - Bullet #3

Good morning!

 

While Earl continues to make many along the East Coast shake in their collective pants, TS Fiona picked up some muscle earlier this morning but now looks pretty ragged for a 60 mph TS. However, since she decided drop her skirt back down (guess she figured Earl wasn't worth dying for!), Fiona now actually has a short opportunity to reach hurricane status. The good news is she has started her NW movement and therefore will not pose a serious threat to our islands although in some areas, even a little mischief from Fiona will exacerbate problems from Earl like St. Maarten, Barbuda and Anegda. Bullet #2 dodged.

 

But, will be dodge Bullet #3? TD#9 has just been classified and is moving west at 15 mph. Currently 1862 miles ESE of Anguilla, if it maintained this speed, it would reach the Northern Antilles on this coming Monday. But that day is a long way off in terms of forecasting tropical systems. Not expected to strengthen rapidly, this poses a bigger threat to the islands in the form of Gaston.

 

More later!!

Tuesday, August 31, 2010 18:59PM EDT - Fiona and the future

Good evening!

 

Yes, I have power finally. My generator performed admirably after being called from a long slumber but you don't know what your missing until it's gone. Many take power for granted. Morning talk shows had some people, as they have after every storm, asking when they are gonna get "current'. I think they need to take a class in "unselfishness" first! Most of St. John is still out along with large parts of St. Thomas. Not sure about St. Croix.

 

Earl the Eyeopener is lurking north of Puerto Rico and grazing the T & C Islands before he begins to menace the East Coast of the US. Still a Cat 4, Earl isn't looking so fine at the moment due to wind shear on the western side but don't let that ragged appearance fool you! This is a system to respect. 

 

Ever since he was hatched, Earl has forever been on the left side of the guidance envelope; in other words, west of where he was supposed to be. This non-endearing part of his attitude is what is causing much concern along the coast all the way up through New England and Canada. What if Earl became that storm on: "It Could happen Tomorrow"? A hurricane plowing into New York harbor and up the Hudson? never say never. It is only a matter of when.

 

Fiona the Fearless looks like she is going to die a slow death due exactly to her fearlessness as she is rushing to the destruction that is Earl's tail. Earl is plodding a modest 15 knots while Fiona is foaming at his heels at 24 knots. I'd say a union is imminent over next few days with the male eating his counterpart instead of the female as in black widows and praying mantis's. Even so, more rains and breezier winds will be in store for the Northern Leewards. 

 

98L is watching what is happening on the stage ahead and gauging his chances. Once again, the longer it takes to organize, the the worse it could be for the Caribbean. And it looks like it will be a slow organizer with dust, dry air, and a bit cooler waters to form over. 4 more waves are lined up and getting ready for their maiden appearance in the Atlantic. Where are the naysayers now??

 

Dave 

 

 

Tuesday, August 31, 2010 11:50AM EDT - Over

Good morning!

 

Hurricane Earl made a much more dramatic arrival last evening than many thought. More naysayers than believers. Power is still out for most of island except key feeder for police and hospital that I am aware of. Some lost power early yesterday. I was lucky until 7 pm last night when he really started to howl. Numerous trees are down, big ones too, branches and leaf debris everywhere. Many transformers have blown up which will surely slow the pace of power restoration. Obviously, cable is out as well. That's been out since early yesterday.

 

Curfew is still in effect officially until noon but you'd never know it by amount of traffic on the roads. Some stores have reopened and gas stations as well. They are plenty packed which means alot of people didn't prepare ahead of time. Marine wise, seas rough and at least a dozen boats have run aground or are running loose from their moorings. No fatalities or serious injuries to report as of this moment which is always the good news.

 

TS Fiona is hiking up her skirt and chasing Earl for all he is worth. We expect her in the next 48 hours and then a break for Labor Day. Meanwhile, more waves are lined up and ready to have their chance at this years crown. This storm was closer than "most" expected so it was good practice but it really shouldn't come down to having a trial run. We should be prepared regardless.

 

More later if my AT&T internet is working finally on the East End of the island or my iPhone (another AT&T product) is working. They were both on Digicell/Lime all night and this morning and did not work well at all. hate to see the roaming charges involved there!! Earl was a brushby. If you can't work during a brushby, you'll never work during a direct hit even though the towers are rated at 220 mph! 

 

Good luck all!!!!! The US Virgins were lucky this time. Anegada, and other islands were not. Prayers and thoughts to them.

 

Dave

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