Caribbean Hurricane Network

- Updates from the Islands -

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-13 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (23:15 UTC, 65 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Monday, May 14, 2012 20:06PM PDT - 2012 Hurricane Season

I have just made the website ready for the upcoming season. A little late this year, sorry. Since I started the Caribbean Hurricane Network (1996) we have the same list of names (that gets rotated every 6 years) as back in 2006 and 2000. The 2006 season was really quiet, and no names were retired, like is done with notable storms. The only new name, Kirk, was added in 2006, when Keith caused havoc in Belize and Nicaragua in 2000. Hopefully no new names have to be retired this year! The long term forecasts at least seem to indicate that the season will be about or below average. Let's hope it's true. Although, as we all know, just one big storm hitting your island, makes it a bad year! I am ready now for the upcoming season. Are you?

Two more notes, if you can, please donate a bit to the website. With the recession, donations are unfortunately well down so that I have to keep the ugly banner ads up... That brings me to my second point, I am actually looking for someone who, on commission basis, can attract sponsors that are willing to advertise on the website. If you think you can create a portfolio of advertisers, or know someone, let me know. See the advertise webpage. -Gert (gert@gobeach.com)

Saturday, May 12, 2012 11:28AM EDT - 92L plus

Good Saturday morning!

Invest 92 was declared this morning but is nothing to worry about here in the Caribbean unless it takes the worlds conveyor belt southward. West of the Azores, it is expected to be a headache for shipping interests and Europe. Further development is not expected due to waters colder than 80F.

Meanwhile, the East Pacific zone is heating up almost on cue as the official start of their season is May 15th off the coast of Mexico. We may see Aletta soon and this may be the most active area this coming season.

Closer to home, the Western Caribbean and Florida have been keen points of interest the last week or so according to model guidance. It will not be unusual to have tropical cyclone formation in these areas at this time of year historically speaking. Next week could get interesting and busy in these areas while at the same time, a tropical wave just off the African coast has a little buzz about it too.

Here around the Virgin Islands, the BVIs received plenty of rain the last two days while the USVIs received pittances. The distance of less than 20 miles makes plenty of difference as we saw during Hurricane Marilyn in 1995. Plenty of volcanic ash has been blue-gray evident with the predominently east southeast wind flow but will soon be replaced by the vanguard of the 2012 Saharan Dust event starting tomorrow as a large area of this hurricane suppressing, air drying mass occupying most of the hurricane belt across the Atlantic, makes it's appearance as a reddish haze making for more allergy issues and beautiful sunsets.

Happy Mothers Day and have a great weekend!

Dave

Monday, April 30, 2012 09:41AM PDT - More forecasts

In addition to the Klotzbach and Gray forecast, AccuWeather.com and Weather Services International (part of the Weather Channel) are projecting below average number of storms (see this article in the L.A. times)! Good news. Tomorrow is May 1, only one month till the season starts! Are you ready? I am not, still have to make this website ready for the 2012 season... -Gert

Wednesday, April 18, 2012 10:20AM EDT - 2nd Actually!

Good morning again!

I don't usually think of hurricanes too much during Jan-April so I forgot about a very short lived Invest

back in February so this one is actually the @nd one of the 2012 year.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):

en Español

Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS REMAINS
MINIMAL.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  NO ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS
SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.  ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BEGIN ON 1 JUNE 2012.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view satellite imagery

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [May 16 14:59]
- Nevis [May 16 14:06]
- Dominica [May 16 9:24]
- Culebra (PR) [May 16 6:51]
- Bonaire [May 15 17:12]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [May 14 19:47]
- St.Kitts [May 13 6:03]
- Puerto Rico [May 12 17:28]
- Grenada [May 11 8:41]
- Vieques (PR) [May 10 14:47]
- Martinique [May 9 16:45]
- Trinidad & Tobago [May 9 5:16]
- St.Lucia [May 7 13:38]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [May 6 19:10]
- Barbados [May 4 15:22]
- St.Croix [May 4 1:00]
- St.Thomas [May 3 12:40]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- STORM2K forum
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-130mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 131-155mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >155mph
More info in the Practical Guide

- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.

WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.

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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert