Caribbean Hurricane Network

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
| Arlene | Bret | Cindy | Don | Emily | Franklin | Gert | Harvey | Irma | Jose | Katia | Lee | Maria | Nate | Ophelia | Philippe | Rina | Sean | Tammy | Vince | Whitney |

Active Tropical Systems: None!
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30


GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (05:15 UTC, 56 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

92L Invest:

Friday, August 18, 2017 19:45PM EDT - Still out there but going????

Good evening from Atlanta,

Cat 2 Hurricane Gert has pulled an Elvis and left the building heading for a date with possibly the UK as a strong extra tropical gale. The former artist known as 99L, while given several times no chance of survival, rose to the occasion while managing to avoid all land areas.

meanwhile, TS Harvey has made his entrance and now exit from the southern Windward Islands causing some wind damage with heavy rains and flooding the major issues. This area has seen more tropical activity this year already than it has in probably the last 5! (I'm traveling so research at a minimum). These islands as well as the ABC Islands just don't see this much action. Fortunately, they have been avoiding the devastating blows, like a weaving boxer. However, down the road, TS Harvey might land a knockout somewhere, especially if he takes a more northerly approach later in the fight pulling the GOM ring card. We will see later next week. Right now though, TS Harvey is holding his own against wind shear and dry air intrusion; much like they all have so far this season.

92L has been utilizing it's own survival techniques against shear and dry air while starting to take a path eerily similar to another system no one would thing would survive: Andrew. The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and Florida should pay closer attention to 92L. Most models do not predict anything formidable hurricane wise at the moment but they under estimated Andrew and Katrina who also followed a similar path. History does repeat itself and if 92L keeps it's act together long enough to get into the GOM, then all bets are off. Just saying...

Further east another system has potential but will probably be a fish storm moving up to the northeast while several potent bowling balls are about to fall off the African coast. It's game on folks!

Be prepared!

Dave

 

Thursday, August 17, 2017 15:57PM PDT - Harvey
Today 91L became Tropical Storm Harvey. The system is currently about 250 miles east of Barbados. Tropical storm winds are expected within 12 hours from the latest advisories, or about 5AM AST ('local time') tomorrow morning. Luckily it is not expected that Harvey will strengthen too much in the next day or so. Harvey is expected to move over Barbados and then cross the island chain near or over St.Vincent... So this storm is pretty far south! It should move about 125 miles north of Aruba/Curacao though, well outside the range of tropical storm winds. I don't think there will be major problems as long as it keeps moving at its current forward speed of 18mph. Then it won't have too much time to locally dump great amounts of rain... Please use the tools above (like the closest point of approach calculator) to assess your risk. -Gert

Tuesday, August 15, 2017 15:25PM EDT - Happy Birthday Gert!

I forgot to mention which I am rectifying now, that today is Gert's Birthday!! No, not the storm, but the founder and moderator of this site so please join me in wishing him a Happy Birthday!!

Dave

Tuesday, August 15, 2017 15:14PM EDT - Triplets

Good afternoon,

With Hurricane Gert spinning his way to a date with the open Atlantic, the pied pipers have started to open up the playground that we know as the MDR (Main Development Region) with 91L and 92L splashing their way west while 93L is a mere formality just waiting for an Atlantic splashdown.

Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear will initiate the demise of Hurricane Gert Wednesday night into Thursday but not before his efforts to reach minimal Cat 2 status might be rewarded; he just needs to do it sooner than later. The former 99L has a history of fighting, staggering and winning his way across the MDR eventually becoming a hurricane when he was all but written off for dead. So, I doubt he's ready to give up now. The main threats from Gert will continue to be high surf, rip currents and threats to shipping.

91L and 92L are playing follow the leader with 92L about 700 miles behind 91L. Both have potential but are not in any hurry to realize that potential. For the moment, I believe 92L has the better chance of development but if 91L were to do it first, 92L would probably falter as it is close enough to be affected by the outflow wind shear from 91L. Time will tell. Down the road we should see these bring squally weather to the mid and northeastern Caribbean Islands at minimum.

Soon to be designated 93L has grabbed a lot of attention already from the NHC and longer range computer models and could very well become a threat to the islands, possibly even the mainland US. Once again, a slower developing system will tend to a more westerly track while a quicker one usually will take the recurve track aka fish storm.

Pretty much, they all have to be monitored from now on.

Dave

... Older discussions >>

Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC):
Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.

Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week.  This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana.  Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information.  An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching
across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Any development of this
system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it
drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic.  Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days.  Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image

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Latest local updates from the special
hurricane correspondents on the islands:
- St.Croix [Aug 22 23:46]
- St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 22 19:13]
- St.Thomas [Aug 22 7:44]
- Trinidad & Tobago [Aug 22 2:59]
- Dominica [Aug 22 0:46]
- Bonaire [Aug 21 13:29]
- Belize [Aug 21 10:53]
- Grenada [Aug 21 8:22]
- Haiti [Aug 20 14:05]
- Puerto Rico [Aug 19 14:27]
- Barbados [Aug 19 8:49]
- Margarita Is., Venezuela [Aug 18 12:25]
- St.Lucia [Aug 18 10:56]
- Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Aug 18 8:24]
- Antigua [Aug 17 19:36]
- Nevis [Aug 17 19:08]
- Anguilla [Aug 17 11:28]
- Montserrat [Aug 16 18:37]
- St.Maarten/St.Martin [Aug 13 17:29]
- St.John [Aug 8 17:42]
- Mexico (incl. Cozumel & Cancun) [Aug 8 14:48]
- Culebra (PR) [Aug 1 8:26]
- Curaçao [Jul 19 9:01]
- Cayman Islands [Jun 18 9:57]
- Dominican Republic [May 1 20:30]

Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years.

Links to excellent websites:
- Navy/NRL Monterey
- WeatherUnderground
- NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops)
- RAMSDIS Imagery
- Radar Composite - E-Carib.
- Caribbean/Atl. buoy data
- RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR)
- STORM2K forum
- Tracking Waves (McNoldy)
- more...

Storm definitions by wind speed:
- Tropical Depression <39mph
- Tropical Storm 39-73mph
- Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph
- Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph
- Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph
- Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph
- Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph
More info in the Practical Guide



- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -

The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com.


WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com:
This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting!

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.


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Disclaimer
The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert