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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Saturday, November 1, 2025 10:08AM EDT - The aftermath

Good morning,

It's obvious many thought we were going to get to the end of the 2025 hurricane season relatively unscathed but alas, that was not to be with the caged, in the Caribbean Cat 5 Hurricane Melissa, having to hit land somewhere to get out, finally deciding Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, The Bahamas, and Turks/Caicos was the easiest way to escape. That turned out to be a very destructive and deadly decision. At least she is no more, now extra tropical and headed towards Greenland/Iceland as a powerful North Atlantic system after grazing Newfoundland overnight. Her name retirement, almost a certainty, will be another part of her grim legacy.

Now, the assessments and recovery efforts have begun. Disaster organizations have started to assist. Recovery for Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba will take years. While shelter, medical supplies, fuel and food are paramount, there is one more item that is more paramount. You cannot recover without power. To clear the debris, to rebuild the infrastructure. Roads, homes, businesses, the electrical grid. Without power, you cannot do any of these things as quickly as possible to start righting the ship.

Power. While most of the world is concentrating on Jamaica, Cuba too, is suffering. As it was, they were only receiving 3 hours of power a day due to an antiquated, decrepit electrical grid. After Melissa, there is no power and no telecommunications, including internet service. There has been little in the way of information coming out of Cuba which is part the Cuban government's fault but also the US Embargoes effects. Haiti, deforested and greatly suffering from gang violence and an inept government at least is sharing to the world what Melissa has done on top of all the rest.

Both Cuba and Haiti deserve to be treated the same as Jamaica as far as disaster relief is concerned. We are all Caribbean family and should be treated as such. There are reputable disaster relief organizations who have experience with all areas affected who are stretched to the limits of this immense disaster. I'm just saying all affected, even the Bahamas and Turks/Caicos if they need, deserve the same assistance, huge or small regardless of politics. This is a humanitarian crisis, not a political issue nor should "politricks" play a part in this crisis.

We are One Caribbean. We still have 29 days to go before the official end of this backloaded hurricane season. The models are still picking up on one, maybe 2 systems to eventually percolate in the SW Caribbean within the next 20 days. If so, where they would go is anyone's guess at this time. Nothing yet but something to be aware of.

Stay safe, vigilant and still prepared.

Dave.

Thursday, October 30, 2025 07:04AM EDT - Bye Melissa (Not soon enough)

Good morning,

They say a picture speaks a thousand words and sometimes volumes. The pictures and verified videos I've seen so far of Jamaica makes one speechless as there are no words that can speak as to the devastation inflicted by Melissa. For me, a stark reminder reminiscent of hurricane Irma in the USVI in 2017. Structural damage immense, landscape devoid of greenery, trees debarked and likely will die with no foliage and salt water exposure, plus the human toll inflicted reflects a natural war zone. Only thing you can do is prepare as there was no stopping the strongest storm on the planet this year nor any storm for that matter. My thoughts are with all areas affected.

Hurricane Melissa has now done her worst in Jamaica, Cuba and we do not know the scope of damage in the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos as she is now speeding up towards her date with Bermuda, now under a hurricane warning. Briskly moving at 21 mph and even strengthening while pulling away from the Bahamas, she is expected to pass just to the west of Bermuda approaching tonight with the strongest wind effects being felt overnight into Friday morning. Hurricane wind gusts are expected while Melissa expands her wind field on approach. A wobble to the east though and the odds of a more direct hit become problematic, especially with her trying to flirt with Cat 3 status again. Fortunately, she will be gone, headed towards Newfoundland, by Friday early eve.

As Gert shared from Dr. Masters, numerous records were tied or set with Melissa's buzzsaw track of destruction. It's almost a certainty, this name will be retired. It's almost a certainty, she will not be forgotten.

Looking behind, we still see some late season tropical waves headed towards the Caribbean from Africa with the hopes that they only bring beneficial rains, not flooding ones, as the dry season is around the corner after November.

Looking ahead, speaking of November, long term models are picking up a whiff of potential activity forming in the SW Caribbean off the Central American coastline.not once but twice between Nov. 5th-18th. This is an area, just like in the beginning of season, where development usually manifests itself. Shear should be moderate and there is untapped hot water, the fuel for tropical systems, available and deep which is why Melissa flourished for so long as a Cat 5. No cold water upwelling was to be had to tamp down continued development, even though she pretty much sat and spun for days. Usually, cold fronts coming into the Gulf of Mexico/America this time of year close that body off but this is a backloaded season. So, vigilance and staying prepared for a bit longer is still a necessity.

Stay safe, vigilant and prepared.

Dave.

Wednesday, October 29, 2025 08:45AM PDT - The Cone of Silence

And now we wait for news to come out of Jamaica. At first there will be a lot of rumors going around, so don't believe everything you hear point blank. Also, who knows, with AI, there might be fake videos going around. The eye of the storm went over the western part over the island. The eastern part (where Kingston is) should have made out better. Nevertheless, at landfall Melissa was a very strong Category 5 storm, with 185 mph sustained winds. According to Jeff Master's Eye in the Storm-blog this ties it for the strongest landfalling storm in the Atlantic (tied with the Labor Day Hurricane, Sep. 3, 1935: Florida Keys). Irma (Sep. 6, 2017: Barbuda, St. Martin, British Virgin Islands, 180 mph, 914-915 mb; also Sep. 9, northern Cuba, 165 mph, 924 mb) is 4th on the list. Maria 10th.

If you know of any good charities to donate to let me know. The World Food Progamme, which is working with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) and Jamaica's ODPEM should be a good one. Also, World Central Kitchen, Global Giving and Water Mission. Again, let me know if you know more and I will list them on the website. Hoping for the best... -Gert

- - - The eye of Hurricane Melissa approaching Jamaica at 9:48AM (Image credit: Eye on the Storm/NOAA/CIRA) - - -

Tuesday, October 28, 2025 09:43AM EDT - Melissa the Monster unveiled

Good morning for most,

High end Cat 5 Hurricane Melissa. There's not much more to say now.

All of Jamaica will feel the wrath, and with those in the path of the eye, it will be an epic, historical, complete destruction event. To those who refused mandatory evacuation orders, potentially deadly. Not many structures, in most countries, let alone Jamaica, can withstand 180mph winds with 200 mph wind gusts. The pressure has fallen to sub 900mb, down to 896mb. The winds have only risen 5mph which means the winds have not caught up with the drop in pressure. It's probable Melissa will make landfall shortly with sustained eyewall winds at 185-195mph with higher gusts. Storm surge only complicates the situation and aids in her deadly impacts plus a rise of 10-15mph will really mean no difference in said impacts. Lightning in her core continues to show strengthening towards landfall.

There is no sugar coating here. Once her demonstrative path of utter but hopefully not deadly destruction is complete, she will still ravage eastern Cuba, side effects to Haiti and the DR. The mountainous region where she invades eastern Cuba will be slightly beneficial to the South/Central Bahamas and Turks/Caicos, knocking her down a few categories but still potentially catastrophic with wind damage and storm surge due to their low lying above sea level status.

Bermuda, as is customary this year, will receive the last of a very unwelcome visit by Melissa probably Friday circumstances depending as a probable Cat 2. Too far out to accurately portray at the moment.

Our prayers and wishful hopes go out to all of the affected and soon to be affected areas. Melissa is historical and her effects will be felt, remembered, and hopefully learned from for a long time to come. Lessons. This could be any one of our islands/countries.

Stay safe, vigilant, prepared, learn and help.

Dave.

Monday, October 27, 2025 11:10AM EDT - Turnaround

Hello again,

Just a quick note.

A hurricane hunter aircraft in the last hour, had to abort it's mission into hurricane Melissa due to extreme up/down frenetic turbulence for the safety of it's crew and the aircraft. That tells you something.

Dave.

Monday, October 27, 2025 10:58AM EDT - Not much more to say Melissa

Good morning for most,

Not so much for Jamaica, Central to Eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the DR from the outflow and tail. Melissa sounds like a delicate, comforting name but in this case, not even close. In fact, if there was a Category 6 hurricane status designation, I believe she could achieve this before the initial landfall at a potential 175 mph into south central Jamaica if the forecast sharp turn to the N then NE is correct. The farther west she goes, she will become the very worst she can be with the right NE quadrant pounding ashore over most of the country although being a highly compact, tightly wound up system, the far eastern side of the island will be spared the worst. Storm surge, while limited by the near shoreline topography, will be catastrophic and deadly while the top level winds over 160 mph will be leveling. Wherever the eye lands, as forecast at the moment, on top of the city of Black River, in St. Elizabeth Parish in SW Jamaica, destruction will be virtually complete.

There are numerous, over 800 shelters, open in Kingston, the Capital, alone. Yet, as of this writing, only 32 have residents in them. From various news reports and postings, most residents want to ride this out for fear of their homes being looted after the storm passes or even during the storm. Sadly, this will potentially be the worst decision of your lives since it might cost you your lives and your possessions that you tried to save/salvage as well. This is not just endemic to Kingston. The closer to the landfall, the manifestation of this reality increases dramatically.

Now, outliers. Being the strongest system in the Atlantic this season, it will be steered by any trough/front that drops down from the CONUS, mainland US. So, it is expected to start turning this evening into tomorrow for it's landfalling encounter with Jamaica. When will that turn occur is anyone's real guess.Will it pass by the west coast of Jamaica before turning? Possibly if the trough/front is a late arriving date. Defying most expectations, a couple outliers show a swing and a miss and Melissa heads towards Central America. Remote possibility, yes. Probably? No. With Mother Nature, you must account for all the possibilities, no matter how remote.

Bottom line. Hurricane Melissa is dangerous, deadly, and potentially/probably catastrophic for all in her path and that includes the Turks/Caicos. Yes, the mountainous terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, if the forecast track manifests itself, knocks her down a few categories after wringing her out of prolific and deadly rainfall, she will still have a rough impact on the T/C. Then Bermuda will probably see the residuals of a declining Melissa.

So much for not much more to say but things needed to be said. Stay safe, vigilant, prepared and please, save your lives by thinking and reacting intelligently. She is nothing to play with. Our prayers are with all.

Dave.

Sunday, October 26, 2025 10:42AM EDT - Halloween Melissa Monster has finally evolved

Good morning,

Hurricane Melissa, rising to expectations as shared days ago, of rapid intensification (35mph in a 24 hour period), has now has doubled down on those expectations, having risen 70mph in a 24 hour period from a 70 mph TS to a 140mph Cat 4 buzzsaw with a prolific backside outflow.Thats called extreme RI. Lightning is observed in the eyewall, and while a temporary pause seems to be occurring in intensity at the moment, that lightning represents continued strengthening which should result in the previously shared probability of Cat 5 status before impacting the south central coast of Jamaica. This will be similar to Hurricane Maria in 2017 who tried to drown us in the US Virgin Islands after Hurricane Irma, 12 days before, tried to kill everyone with her surprising drop down variable attack from the NE. Maria went on to ravage the large Commonwealth of Puerto Rico with tragic consequences of over 3,000 deaths confirmed and many still missing to this day and unaccounted for. Fortunately, we (VI) received the southern eyewall of Irma. I can't imagine the impact if she had hit with the northern eyewall. 95 days without power. (Went 91 days without power in 1995 from Hurricane Marilyn). The lingering aftereffects of a storm of this magnitude are just as evil as the direct impact, although a bit less terrifying. Builds character/fortitude and shows just how strong you are in the face of adversity not to mention your preparedness skills. The trauma is enhanced during a nighttime landfall which seems to be the norm.

If the forecast track holds, Melissa will strike as a minimal Cat 5. There's not much difference between a high end Cat 4 and a minimal Cat 5. Just a table to gauge the damage assessments and catastrophic consequences of impact, much like the Enhanced Fujita Scale used to determine wind speeds and damage caused from tornadoes. Current outlooks also show a potentially tragic amount of rainfall across Jamaica, southern Haiti and eastern Cuba with lesser rainfall impacts across the Turks/Caicos, southern Bahamas, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (both US and BVI) on her way to a potential date with the storm favorite of the year, Bermuda. Again, the tail will tell for the easternmost areas of the Lesser Antilles and the DR.

An eyewall replacement cycle (EWC) appears imminent, which is common among strong tropical systems. This would be a small beneficial event if it happened on landfall in a couple days as well. The eye is looking a bit ragged and ripe for change. Sadly, this eventually will be for the worse and not the better.

Looking behind with eyes in the back of the head as we always focus on what's in front and forget to look back, the elongated tropical wave located around 45W moving to the NW appears to be benign at this time with no attention being paid to it via NHC. There is another late season low rider coming off the African coast. As related previously, this is a back loaded season and nothing is off the table. Melissa is the proof in the pudding and October storms are notorious for their ferocity.

Stay safe, vigilant, prepared, and prayers for those in Melissa's path.

Dave.

Saturday, October 25, 2025 10:20AM PDT - Melissa

Indeed, what Dave said yesterday, it seems like Groundhog Day. The NHC public advisory says it all: PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H. Rainfall will locally be 35", that is almost 3 feet, 1 meter, waist high! That is just what comes down from the sky, not what accumulates in rivers and streams on land. It is hard to imagine what that will do in mountainous areas. If you live in a flood prone area: go somewhere else!

On top of this, Melissa is strengthening. Currently it is almost hurricane strength. With sea surface temperatures at a balmy 30-31C/86-88F and wind shear diminishing it is expected to go through a rapid intensification process. The official forecast is that it will reach Cat-4 strength in 36 hours. But don't be surprised if it will become a Category 5 storm. Currently it looks like the eye will reach Jamaica in 3 days, but things will start deteriorate a lot sooner. Just look at the closest point of approach screenshot below...

These are the key messages from the NHC discussion:
1. Jamaica: Melissa's slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing.

For Jamaica a massive storm surge (7-11 feet) is expected as well where the eye makes landfall and to the east of it, accompanied by huge waves. Obviously this storm has disaster written all over it. Please, again, if you live in a flood prone area, near a river, or near the coast, in the mountains where mud slides are possible, try to go somewhere else! Don't underestimate the destruction of water and Cat.5 winds if you live on Jamaica... -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach Melissa and Kingston - - -

Friday, October 24, 2025 07:33AM EDT - Melissa update (Groundhog Day)

Good morning,

TS Melissa remains pretty much where she was last night, a Caribbean High Plains Drifter, being buffeted by relentless wind shear plus a dose of dry air intruding from the NW courtesy of a weak trough dropping down off the mainland US. Nearly stationary, her center is partially exposed still with her deepest convection blown off to her east and north.

Melissa has already contributed to the chaos in Haiti with 3 deaths confirmed from her indirect effects, flooding. Unfortunately, this is only the beginning. The mountainous regions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the DR will act like a washing machine rinse and spin cycle, wringing out copious amounts of torrential rainfall mainly on the southern slopes leading to flash flooding, mudslides and landslides, especially deforested Haiti. Then we have the storm surge. As catastrophic as the above will potentially be, storm surge will have devastating effects along the southern coasts as well.

Forecast to become a major hurricane by weekends end as the wind shear is expected to finally abate to a more modest 11-17mph, possibly again, flirting with Cat 5 status, now we add wind misery to the drastic amount of rainfall and those subsequent effects. Interaction with those same mountains will disrupt her integrity as she curves off to the NE, eventually, but again, a double edged sword. Knock her back on her heels in intensity but wring her out as well.

If she follows the longer term models, cause she's not moving much in the next 5 days short term, Melissa is expected to head off to the NE. Her trailing effects will be Jerry-esque, earlier this season, for the northern Lesser Antilles possibly down to St. Maarten/St. Martin. The sting of a tropical system's trailing tail packs a scorpion's punch.

Stay safe, vigilant, and prepared.

Dave.

Thursday, October 23, 2025 07:21AM EDT - Meandering Melissa

Good morning,

Well, not much has changed overnight with TS Melissa as she hasn't moved very far from yesterday while trying to get her percolation going, lurking SSE of Jamaica just waiting for her chance to break out. Wind shear has been very persistent keeping Melissa from aligning her lower and middle levels which is not allowing consolidation and strengthening. However, that shear is expected to decrease over the next day, which it looks like it started to this morning on satellite, as Melissa seems to be all over the place without basically going anywhere. If it doesn't relax, which is a remote possibility, Melissa will still be a super soaker to the Greater Antilles causing heavy rain, flash flooding, land slides, mud slides and chaos for the next week.This includes the eastern part of Cuba, all of Jamaica, the DR, Turks/Caicos and most of Haiti with her tentacles possibly making contact with the Cayman Islands on the west side and PR on the east. All depends on how far west she goes. Plus, the farther west she goes before curving to the NNE, now Florida, the Keys, Bahamas and even the tropical season favorite, Bermuda, will come into play.

Once Melissa becomes "stacked" or vertically aligned at all levels, the game of rapid intensification that I shared was possible a few posts ago, will become a distinct reality and not a possibility. Current forecast calls for Cat 4 status in the next 5 days. A flirtation with Cat 5 status is now a possibility as well. Either way, she will become a dangerous hurricane menacing Jamaica with a probable direct hit before moving on.

Regardless, Melissa will be hanging out for quite a while due to lack of direction from the steering Gods. This makes the forecast quite difficult in both direction and intensity. Hence, the blob/bubble instead of an actual cone. I expect hurricane watches and warnings to be posted later today for Jamaica and eastern Cuba with TS watches for other sites.

Stay safe, vigilant and prepared.

Dave.

Wednesday, October 22, 2025 07:36AM EDT - Melissa the Halloween Monster?

Good morning,

Residents of Haiti, the DR, Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands plus the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, are waiting with baited breath to see what still TS Melissa is going to do as far as where she decides to dance and how hard she will dance. On TV they call it a squashed spider effect. I call it a discombobulated disaster in the making. The traditional "cone" is not a cone but a blob or bubble. This shows that the forecast is not cut in stone and totally of low confidence. Either way, a large loss of life is potentially imminent in the next 7-10 days, especially over Haiti and the DR after Melissa makes up her mind.

As Gert shared yesterday, landslides, mudslides, major flooding and copious amounts of rainfall are probable as TS Melissa waffles and meanders in the central Caribbean due to very weak steering currents. Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating and they found the center had reformed to the NE, due to the omnipresent wind shear which has consistently kept the lid on Melissa, for now. Most of her wind sheared energy is on her east/backside still while moving a paltry 7mp barely to the WNW. This looks to continue for the next few days.

A tropical storm watch is up for Jamaica while a hurricane watch is up for the southern peninsula of Haiti to the DR border which includes the capital of Haiti.. Other watches and warnings will manifest themselves as Melissa evolves down the road into a possible monster October hurricane when the wind shear abates. The untapped hot Caribbean waters, the fuel for the engine, runs deep and this fuel has the potential to power Melissa into a Cat 3 once unleashed.

All of the Greater Antilles should be rushing to finish preparations while Melissa is taking her sweet old time making up her mind, waiting for the upper level weather dynamics to come to a solution on a final track and potential strength. The Lesser Antilles of Puerto Rico, the British and US Virgin Islands, down to Antigua/Anguilla should be vigilant as well. If it does pull off to the east, flooding rains and gusty winds will be prevalent possibly late next week.

The other 2 outlier possibilities remain but remote. Continuing a mainly westward movement and plowing into Honduras/Nicaragua. The other is riding up the east coast of the US and not curving east. I'm only mentioning these as they are still in play but distinctly remote at this time. Problem is, no one really knows where Melissa will eventually go at this moment. As usual, time will tell.

Stay safe, vigilant, and prepared.

Dave.

Tuesday, October 21, 2025 10:29AM PDT - This could be bad!

Just a short update since I am busy with my daytime job, but I foresee potentially big problems with the newly formed tropical storm Melissa. It is not the winds but the rain that concerns me. The thing is that it is projected to stall in the Caribbean Sea. This means that it can dump rain for days at certain locations. Since it will be stalling quite close to Hispaniola it might become a very dangerous situation.

The Dominican Republic and esp. Haiti have a bad history with these kind of wet storms. Especially mountainous areas will be the most dangerous. Some mountain sides on Haiti are clear cut, so it cannot absorb much water, which increases the chance for dangerous mudslides. Also Jamaica, Puerto Rico and parts of Cuba should take this storm serious. The advisories say: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible. See this graphic from the National Hurricane center showing the latest rainfall forecast. Also below the current 5 day forecast. Two things to note, it hardly moves in 5 days and it might become a hurricane too, not a good situation! Stay safe everybody! -Gert

- - - Five day forecast Melissa - - -

Sunday, October 19, 2025 07:47AM EDT - 1st timer

Good morning all,

Well, for the first time this hurricane season, a Cabo Verde wave, late season at that, has made it to the Caribbean without curving back out to sea before paying an entrance fee.. Hurricane Erin was the closest followed by TS Jerry trying their best but being turned away at the last minute.. While they menaced the outer islands, there was no internal Caribbean penetration. That is about to change later today.

98L: Currently, 98L is about to enter the Windward Islands with torrential rains, some TD/TS winds in some places, and create major coastal issues. Fortunately, this will not last long due to her forward speed. Some of 98L's effects will be felt as far north as Dominica and even Guadeloupe of the southern Leewards. The speedy major gut punch however, will be felt in the middle and southernmost Windwards.

Trucking along at road runner speed at 20-25 mph, 98L is only mitigating herself from developing with this forward speed west as that type of forward speed will not allow a closing off of a (COC), a center of circulation, even with some wind speeds calculated by satellite pass overs at 35mph already, and a blossoming of convection over night.

Once passing through the Windwards by Monday evening, 98L is expected is expected to slow down, finally close off it's center of circulation, and transform into TS Melissa while in the central Caribbean. It may reach TD status in the Eastern Caribbean graveyard first, however, rocket fuel awaits ahead in the form of very warm, untapped Caribbean waters. The scenarios for track and intensity after that are varied and complex. Here are the possibilities.

One scenario has soon to be Melissa developing, then curving sharply into Haiti and the DR on a track to curve OTS once past that dual island of the Greater Antilles. The highest mountains in the Caribbean have a habit of major disruption of tropical entities while also wringing extreme amounts of moisture out of them like a spin cycle does in your washing machine. For the southern areas of Haiti/DR, this would result in extreme flooding and mud/land slide action. Collateral effects on Puerto Rico, the US/British Virgin islands would be gusty winds, torrential rains and flooding as it pulls away. The southernmost Turks/Caicos could also see some of this action.

The second scenario has soon to be Melissa moving farther west before curving northward around Jamaica and the Cayman Islands which would also put the Keys and the US, Florida in particular, in her crosshairs, probably as a stronger system depending on any interaction with the eastern mountains of Cuba first.

The third, and possibly most dangerous, is a no curve and rumbling into the Central American coast around Nicaragua/Honduras quite possibly as a major hurricane. If this scenario pans out, RI or rapid intensification, with low wind shear and those hot western Caribbean waters, is distinctly on the table.

It appears almost all of the Caribbean has a shot at feeling the effects of soon to be Melissa in some shape, form and track. It's been easy this year to be complacent with all pretty much being a swing and a miss. She will not be as once in the Caribbean, she has to hit land somewhere, same as if she was in the GOMEX/GOAMERICA. The next few days will be interesting with all these different possibilities.

Stay safe, vigilant, and prepared.

Dave.

Monday, October 13, 2025 10:41AM PDT - Lorenzo

Well, Jerry brought a lot of rain. Although rainfall totals varied a lot by island. For the most northeastern islands, like Anguilla, St.Maarten/St.Martin, Saba, etc., it was mostly a non-event. But other islands more south and west got a really good drenching, esp. Antigua and Barbuda (up to 9 inch!) and Guadeloupe (up to 7 inch)! A lot of the other islands saw up to 2-4 inch of rain.

Meanwhile we got another tropical storm. It is currently over a 1000 miles east of us. Luckily it is already curving northward, so will never reach us. It might move over the Azores in 5 days or so, if it is still alive by then. So no worries here. Hopefully the last storm of the year! -Gert

Thursday, October 9, 2025 18:19PM EDT - Rough time Jerry

Good evening,

TS Jerry is having a real hard time with wind shear which is affecting his chances of organization into a hurricane for now, not to mention the best part, menacing the Leewards as a Cat 1-3 hurricane. One discombobulated mess at 65 mph, Jerry did a great job at doing something fairly rare a few hours ago; ejecting (spitting out) his low level circulation from under the heavy convection. So the LLC is ahead and outrunning all the convection leaving it virtually exposed which also means, in this case, this convection is mainly to the east and south almost like a "comet" TS dragging a long tail of said convection.

This is expected to continue over the next few days which is good news for the Northern Leewards. The west side facing the Leewards currently is looking bereft of any sustained tropical winds. However, just in case, there are TS warnings up for Guadeloupe and surrounding smaller islands, the French and Dutch sides of St. Martin/St. Maarten, St. Barts, Anguilla and Barbuda. If Jerry continues on his haphazard trek, Barbuda and Anguilla will receive the most effects. TS watches are up for Saba, St. Eustasius, Antigua, St. Kitts/Nevis and Montserrat. There are no current watches for the BVI's, USVI's, and Puerto Rico. However, rain squalls, rough seas, some blustery winds and swells will propagate to those islands as Jerry passes by late tonight into tomorrow morning. Again, this is the probability now. If Jerry wobbles to the west, that could alter the experiences as they are prone to wobbles which are very hard to forecast. It does look like he's trying to go a tad east at this time. His tail might be his worst for the Leewards as he heads for Bermuda which, so used to tropical systems, must be getting tired of this year's tropical attention. Jerry is forecast to pass off to the east of Bermuda doing a right turn on Sunday, maybe having achieved hurricane status before racing off into the Central Atlantic. Needs to be kept an eye on regardless of the close proximity of our islands.

There's 52 days left in the official 2025 hurricane season and 235 before the 2026 season starts. It's the cycle we live in and must always be prepared for.

Stay safe and yes, prepared.

Dave.

Wednesday, October 8, 2025 15:06PM PDT - Jumbly Jerry

Just a quick update, since not much has changed since Dave's update earlier this morning. All still holds true what Dave said, but things are looking a bit better for the northeastern islands. Jerry is definitely moving more north-west and it looks more and more likely that Jerry's center will stay a away from the islands. Current closest point of approach for Anguilla is still around 130 miles, but for Antigua a bit closer than yesterday (114 miles) in just about 28 hours (Thursday 10PM). So it is coming fast.

Since it is still moving so fast it didn't have a chance to get organized that well. It doesn't look great on satellite images at all, but maximum sustained winds are still 60 mph, pretty close to hurricane force (74+ mph). The National Hurricane Center predicts that it will actually reach hurricane strength in 48 hours, so after it has passed the islands. Probabilities of feeling tropical storm winds for the islands are also way down. Yesterday it was 34% for St.Maarten, now it is 14%, for Antigua is is 8% now (was 22%) and St.Thomas 5% (was 16%). See full list in the wind speed advisory.

So in summary, 2 good things are happening, (1) it doesn't look like Jerry is getting closer than expected to us and (2) it should not reach hurricane status when it is closest. Nevertheless, the islands will still see tropical storm conditions, not nice weather to go outside. There will be heavy rainfall, which will for sure flood some roads. And as always, forecasts are prone to change. Don't let your guard down, still prepare as if a hurricane (albeit not that strong) is coming. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Wednesday, October 8, 2025 07:32AM EDT - Speedy Jerry

Good morning,

TS Jerry is getting heavily sheared at the moment with most of the "good stuff" to the south and east of the center which is partially exposed. This, along with moving at a motivating clip of 22 mph to the WNW at 13.3N, 50.7W, is keeping Jerry from aligning vertically, all the levels he needs to become a hurricane at this moment. Still stuck at a mid TS level of 50mph due to the above, this part is the good news.

The crap news is the weaker he is, the farther west he will go and not turn quite as fast. Hence, TS watches are up from Guadeloupe to Antigua at the moment and probably will be upgraded to warnings tonight or tomorrow morning. Puerto Rico, the USVI's and the BVI's are not included yet but I expect them to be included in a watch tomorrow and possible warnings.

Jerry is expected to slow down to a more pedestrian level plus the wind shear is supposed to drop as well which will allow that vertical stacking and he is expected to become a hurricane at some point tomorrow. Rapid strengthening is not anticipated due to his discombobulation which is the other good news. However, we should have a Cat 1 on the Leeward Islands doorstep within 36 hours.

Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Jerry which will provide more definitive information and formation. The usual suspects: 2-6 inches of rain, obvious flash flooding, coastal erosion, rip currents, and wind damage are all probable as he curves OTS. Where he curves and how fast that curve occurs though is the big question along with what strength. I think he will move a bit farther west and the islands will receive a heavier dose of Jerry but the next 24 hours will be the tell. Bottom line is be prepared for a Cat 1 probability with extra potential.

Stay safe and well prepared.

Dave.

Tuesday, October 7, 2025 11:27AM PDT - Jerry

Invest 95L has been upgraded to tropical storm Jerry, the 10th named storm of the season. It is still about 1000 miles to the east of us, but it is moving at a pretty fast clip. Right now it is expected to be near the islands late Thursday/early Friday. At that time Jerry is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane. Hopefully we don't get an unexpected rapid intensification scenario. Sea surface temperatures are still plenty warm (about 2C/4F above average even). But most models keep it just a Category 1 by the time it reaches the islands.

As of now Jerry is expected to skirt just north of the northeastern islands. The current closest point of approach is only 130 miles with Anguilla or Antigua. Most models keep it north of the islands, but some, like Google's DeepMind AI model, puts it much closer, and is trending southward (see Michael Lowry's blog). The advisories note that Antigua has a 22% chance of feeling tropical storm winds (1% hurricane force), for St.Maarten/St.Martin those numbers are 34% and 6%, and St.Thomas 16% and 1% (see more islands listed here). So still a bit too early to tell if we are out of the woods. We have to keep a close eye on this one. Stay tuned! -Gert

Monday, October 6, 2025 07:07AM EDT - 95L

Good morning,

A large, disorganized for the moment, low rider tropical wave is located approx. 9N, 34.3W while moving mainly west at a good clip of 15-20 mph. The 1010mb low, analyzed by satellite derivations, depicts 95L's winds around 28mph already with TD formation likely by the end of the day or overnight. Models indicate hurricane formation 3-4 days.

A gradual turn towards the WNW is forecast at the moment with the hatch, not a cone yet, showing probable hurricane Jerry approaching the northern Leewards in those same 3-4 days. The hatch has a wide spread of track right now with the northern Leewards just inside the western northern edge of that hatch. That's obviously too close for comfort.

Too early to tell with any certainty the exact track but all islands from Guadeloupe up to PR and the DR should be vigilant and prepared should this system become Hurricane Jerry and then wobble west upon approach to the islands. All so far have curved before reaching us. That doesn't mean they all will. Hopefully, it strengthens quickly which usually translates to a quicker curvature OTS. If it stays weak, it could mean trouble. Conditions are pretty favorable with moderate wind shear, plenty of SST energy, and low Saharan Dust interaction. As shared, too early for certainty but no reason for complacency.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Friday, October 3, 2025 11:14AM PDT - A new wave

Although it is October and things should start slowing down in the Atlantic, a new wave came off the African coast today. This might become another big one since conditions ahead are expected to be pretty good for development. Right now it looks like it is taking a similar track as all other Cape Verde storms this year. Hopefully it veers enough north before it reaches the islands. Expected arrival next week Thursday somewhere. The National Hurricane Center gives it a medium (50%) chance to become something within 7 days. Stay tuned! -Gert

Wednesday, October 1, 2025 09:09AM EDT - The magnetism continues

Good morning,

This was supposed to be sent around 6am this morning but an outage stopped that before I could push the send button so I took a few minutes to update to current. Now posting.

How can one island, 24 miles long and 1.75 miles wide at its widest, retain the magnetism of drawing all hurricanes so far this year to its shores or close flybys? Makes you wonder but fortunately they are used to these recurving or streaking tropical systems hence they are one of the most well prepared in the Atlantic and the Caribbean for any tropical calamity. Bermuda has dodged the first few with minor effects. However, that charm only lasts so long as you cannot dodge them all. Hurricane Imelda looks to end that dodging streak.

Currently approx 385 miles to the WSW of Bermuda, Imelda is chugging along at a brisk 21mph as if afraid to miss her date of approx. 3:30 am tomorrow morning. According to the Closet Point of Approach tool, her close encounter is expected to be 21.3 miles at that time but with hurricane force winds stretching up to 60 miles outward with TS force winds outwards of 230 miles, her initial encounter will be later this afternoon. Flooding, battering wave action, along with hurricane force winds are the expectations and of course, make her closest encounter in the dark. Hurricane Hunters are investigating but it looks like their findings did not make it into the 8am intermediary advisory so we shall see what the 11am brings. The east coast might have been spared the winds but the rough seas are going to linger, not only for the mainland but propagate to the Bahamas, Turks/Caicos, and the NE Caribbean.

Hurricane Humberto has drawn Imelda with him, fortunate for the east coast of the US but again, not fortunate for Bermuda. Moving slower at approx 14mph, he is forecast to rapidly deflate from an 80mph hurricane to an extra tropical poof by midnight tonight as a front is supposed to drop down, pick him up and wreck the rest of him.

Closer to home, we have an elongated wave around 47W which has raised some eyebrows which might have the NHC designate it as an invest in the next day or two. No official mention at the moment as most eyes have been on our twins. We also have a couple more waves which will be exiting the African coast with the third one very vigorous. As I shared in a previous post, vigilance should be not just what's happening, but what's potentially behind you. The period between now and early November looks to be quite active, the backload of the season. Time and climate will tell.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Monday, September 29, 2025 15:15PM PDT - Bermuda

Humberto is still a Category 4 storm, causing high surf for the US East coast and Bermuda. The hurricane is expected to pass first west and then north of Bermuda at a relative safe 200 miles, but tropical storm winds could still reach Bermuda. Indeed, a tropical storm watch for Bermuda was issued earlier.

Meanwhile tropical storm Imelda is drenching the Bahamas. Good news for the US is that it will make a sharp turn to the east soon and believe it or not, will aim directly for Bermuda! Last week Monday Gabrielle passed to the east, tomorrow into Wednesday it is Humberto and Wednesday late it will be Imelda! The current Closest Point of Approach of its center is only 15 miles, Wednesday 11PM EDT. By that time it is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane. Therefore Humberto's tropical storm watch for Bermuda was replaced with a hurricane watch for Imelda. I think it is the first time I heard something like that...

Although the forecast calls for a Category 1, be prepared for something stronger. We have seen it many times over the years that storms go through a rapid intensification process since the water is still plenty warm, and wind shear is not too high. In the advisories they also call for the possibility of a 'sting jet' forming at Imelda's tail in about 60-72h, due to interaction with the jet stream. Apparently according to Google AI, this is a a narrow, intense, short-lived corridor of powerful winds (exceeding 100 mph) that descends to the surface within certain extratropical cyclones, causing localized, severe damage. Hopefully this happen just after it has left Bermuda... Lots of excitement ahead for Bermuda. Luckily, normally they are well prepared. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, September 27, 2025 15:17PM EDT - Humberto the Huge/TD#9?

Good afternoon,

So many dynamics with the late resurgence of this tropical season with the dueling pianos, aka currently Cat 4 Humberto and soon to be Imelda on stage at the moment with a few contenders waiting in the wings coming off the African coast in the coming days, especially, door #2 being my major contender for now.

Humberto: RI'd to a Cat 4 and now currently has a short lived possibility of attaining Cat 5 status while moving at a paltry 8 mph, which would be even shorter lived if at all. There would not be much difference between 145mph and 156mph in terms of damage, only status, followed by a fairly quick diminishment to a Cat 3, then Cat 2 as it transitions to an extra tropical system. After undergoing an eye wall replacement, Humberto now can attempt his run at Cat 5 while completing a tight turnaround to the NW then N then NE around Bermuda but again, time to accomplish that strengthening is limited. Regardless, this will be a close call for Bermuda as Humberto's windfield will start to expand while being on the east, more powerful side of the storm. Approx. 340 miles to the north of the northern Leewards and 690 miles to the SSE of Bermuda,, wave action and heavy seas will affect both regions as well as the east coast of the US co joining with soon to be Imelda.

Problem child Imelda: Not yet. Current status is TD#9 and it's not a love potion for sure. Still a discombobulated bad hair day of a tropical system, the low is just north of the eastern coast of Cuba. Now, having cleared the DR and Cuba, the low has a chance to consolidate but that will take a bit of time with TS status maybe overnight and hurricane status achieved Monday into Tuesday. The model guidance is tight for the next few days making a beeline to the NW with more heavy rains for some of the Turks/Caicos, lingering over the DR and Haiti then drenching almost all of the low lying Bahamian islands along with flooding, heavy surf, rip currents, and coastal erosion. The northern part of the 700 island nation will bear the brunt of the higher winds as soon to be Imelda strengthens.

Soon to be Imelda has 3 scenarios in her future. Mostly determined by Humberto which, in one very likely scenario, pulls Imelda away from the east coast on a sharp right turn also affecting Bermuda. The second, gets squeezed between all the variables and shoots straight NW. Not happening more than likely. Plowing into South Carolina/North Carolina very possible as well then even pulling a crazy Ivan and going back SW. Bottom line, nothing in stone with this one other than the Bahamas and the SE coast are going to get extremely wet with eroded coastlines and maybe a land falling hurricane. It also will break the chain of 3 majors in a row unless something "major" happens. I think the last year this happened, 3 majors to start off the season, was 1932. Regardless, still early in her game.

Off to the east of the islands, the basin is quiet but we have the next 3 waves coming off the African coast in fairly rapid succession. Odds for me are on the middle sibling. Time will tell. The western Caribbean can also stir up a troublemaker next week as we get back into the second homegrown part of the season. There will be lurkers while attention focuses on the Captain Obvious's. We have to remember to look behind those for unwelcome surprises.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Saturday, September 27, 2025 11:32AM PDT - Humberto plus Imelda soon

Hurricane Humberto has rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, and might even reach Category 5 status later. Another hurricane undergoing rapid intensification. The threshold for that process is an increase of 35 mph in a 24 hour period. Humberto increased from 75 mph (Cat-1) to 145 mph (Cat-4) in 24 hours, a 70 mph increase! Luckily it will stay over 300 miles north of the islands, however, the waves generated by the strong storm will reach the islands. Right not it is expected to pass to the west of Bermuda in about 3 days as a Category 3 storm. Although a bit early to say, its Closest Point of Approach is forecasted to be 115 miles, a bit closer than Gabrielle came last Monday on the other side of Bermuda!

We now also have Tropical Depression Nine, soon to be Imelda. The center of circulation is just north of Cuba, kind of hard to see since it is still quite disorganized (see a link to the loop in the tool section above). The system is moving to the northwest, towards the Bahamas. Right now tropical storm warnings have been issued already (see the advisories).

It is aiming for Georgia and the Carolina's, but currently the forecast models are a bit confused. When Hurricane Humberto catches up, it might form a magnet for then Imelda due to the so-called Fujiwhara effect. Looking at the model spaghetti plots (see link in the tool section as well) there are some tracks going inland and some making an abrupt turn to the east, due to Humberto. Indeed, the official NHC forecast now also calls for a swoop out to sea after it first slows down before the coast. If it turns, guess for which island it is aiming again! Right now the major threats for the Caribbean will be the rainfall that will impact not only the Bahamas but also Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic (which already received lots of rain) and Jamaica. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Thursday, September 25, 2025 08:24AM EDT - Blown up

Good morning,

Hurricane Gabrielle is going to impact the Azores before diving into Portugal's west coast as a tropical storm according to the latest guidance. Obviously, not Caribbean but still noteworthy as the Azores have experienced 21 hurricane experiences with only 4 of them direct hits as we know of. Gabrielle looks to make it 5. Then on to Portugal as a TS with Gibraltar next as a depression. Noteworthy due to the rareness. Hope Gabby knows Portuguese.

TS Humberto has finally come to life but is a heavily wind sheared one, partly due to 94L to his west. Because of this wind shear, virtually all of his activity is to the east of the COC. However, as 94L progresses towards the Turks/Caicos while speeding ahead of Humberto, he is projected to become a Cat 2 in rapid fashion, even possibly reaching Cat 3 status by Sunday night. That looks to be brief if so. Bermuda, once again, must be getting bored by all the attention this season but complacency is not an option. Too early to tell but a wobble could mean big trouble. Vigilance is not an option either although Bermuda is well prepared for unwelcome tropical visits with some rain being the only welcome part of this visit. Meanwhile, Humberto will play a big part in where 94L, soon to become Imelda, tracks.

With that said, 94L is the real problem child at the moment. Hurricane Hunters are investigating now with the data being collected fed into the hurricane computer models for a more accurate analysis of the upper level atmosphere which will help immensely in determining how 94L will evolve. After a discombobulated visit to the northern Leewards yesterday with a more prominent visit to Puerto Rico and now on a collision course with the DR/northern Haiti, 94L should consolidate around the Turks and Caicos reaching hurricane status by Saturday eve. Heavy rain, flooding, high wave action, rip currents and wind damage are to be expected once this system gets off Hispaniola through the T&C onward through most of the Bahamian chain. Where it goes from there is still uncertain but the 2 scenarios are, the SC/NC region or a close encounter with the east coast then a right turn Clyde headed to where? Bermuda. Regardless, it's anyone's guess where soon to be Imelda will go. Could even hit Florida or Georgia or just stay out to sea. Doubtful on the OTS part.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Monday, September 22, 2025 07:24AM EDT - Waking up

Good morning,

Speaking of waking up, the Atlantic Basin is finally coming out of its mid-season swoon with the African wave train finally on its tracks after being derailed significantly by later than usual in the season amounts of Saharan dust, sinking stable air in the atmospheric mid levels, and wind shear. There has been plenty of fuel for the fire so to speak with SST's (Sea surface temperatures) relatively untapped for months in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico/America which bodes ill will as we head into October with only 2 named hurricanes to this point. Expect rapid intensification of this backloaded season going forward the rest of the way and speaking of rapid intensification, Hurricane Gabrielle is poised to do that as well.

Hurricane Gabrielle is chugging along at a modest rate of 11 mph approx.195 miles to the southeast of our season's favorite target so far, Bermuda with 90 mph winds and higher gusts. RI is expected over the next 24-36 hours. She had to wait out a troublesome period of endurance with dry air and saharan dust but has persevered and is now expected to become a major hurricane while passing to the east of Bermuda. With the wind shear from the west and her increasing forward speed plus passing to the east thereby showing Bermuda her weak side, the effects could be minimal as in high wave action, rip currents, and a few showers from the outer bands. However, any wobble to the east passing by will obviously increase those effects. Down the road, even the Azores could experience Gabrielle as a diminishing Cat 1.

Closer to home, the wave train is evolving with several already getting NHC attention. One has blossomed somewhat close to the northern Leewards/Windwards with somewhat limited potential for depression status at this time. However, squally weather with the usual accompanying high waves, rip currents, power outages and localized flooding is a good possibility even if no development/weak development occurs over the next few days. The northern Leewards could definitely use the rain just not 3-6 inches all at once. Fortunately, it is moving quickly at 15-20 mph so that should help mitigate the flooding possibilities.

The wave behind has better potential and looks to follow Gabrielle's track, for now. If it speeds up, it might gobble up the wave ahead and merge to the north of the islands. Then, of course, head for Bermuda. It's too early to tell and the quicker this wave forms, the quicker it will turn from the WNW to the NW. The other possibility is, if it misses its turn, it could wind up on the Outer Banks as a Cat 3. Or, farther south along the east coast. Again, too early to tell with many variables in play. Lastly, we have a low rider coming off the African coast shortly. If it holds together, it could be a doozy. Once again preparation and vigilance are the keys.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Saturday, September 20, 2025 15:03PM PDT - Gabrielle

Gabrielle is still churning away almost 600 miles north of the islands. Still a tropical storm, but it is expected to become a hurricane later, maybe even reaching Category 2 status in 36 hours. Luckily it looks like Gabrielle will also stay a safe distance away from Bermuda. The current closest point of approach is 230 miles to the east as a Category 2 hurricane in about 44 hours (Sunday night/Monday). With main convection on 'the other side' even rainfall will be limited. Main hazard for Bermuda will be the high waves reaching the island. Not a good time to go swimming!

The tropical wave behind it, which Dave has been telling us about earlier, is still just a tropical wave. Chances are quite low that it will become something in the next 7 days. If it does, it looks like it should pass just north of the islands. A bit too early to tell, but no need to put up those hurricane shutters yet either. Nice and quiet for peak season! -Gert

Tuesday, September 16, 2025 19:33PM EDT - Uneasy Quieteness

Good evening,

For the second year in a row, the Atlantic MDR has been unusually quiet during the historical high activity period of the annual hurricane season. Uneasy to say the least. Last year, activity ramped up late. More than likely, it will ramp up again late this year. There is way too much fuel in all areas, the MDR, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico/America. If wind shear and dry air intrusion decides to diminish, there will be H to pay in all probability by the end of November for some unfortunate destination.

The East Pacific continues to be motivated though, helping to assist in drought mitigation in the SW parts of California and the desert southwest especially with TS Marion's rejuvenation in that area with another system, unnamed at this time on a similar track. The Atlantic has 2 areas of interest as well although not named as of yet with high probabilities for the first one, at the moment. Gabrielle is on deck and should be manifested by tomorrow night.

Labeled 92L, likely Gabrielle is moving WNW 12-17 mph with 8-11 foot seas, and a 1007n mb low situated at approx. 13.6N, 43W. Looking and projected by most model consensus, a fish storm although Bermuda, our favorite tropical magnet so far this year, should be vigilant in case she does not turn quick enough.

The one I shared previously has splashed and is now approx. 19.5N with most of the activity between 9N-14N. This disorganized mess is moving, satellite derived, fairly quickly westward and expected to continue on that track at 15-20mph. Soon to be Gabrielle will be helping to moisturize the atmosphere ahead of this one, basically "plowing the road". This one has potentially very evil intentions. Too early for concrete diagnosis but definitely not one to be ignored.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Thursday, September 11, 2025 20:59PM EDT - Waves, WAPA and Changes

Good evening,

Well, good ole' Wapa is playing the shenanigans game again with periodic blackouts blaming it on everything from gas leaks to generator failures which has been endemic here in the VI since I moved here in 1989, albeit less prevalent in the 1990's. Hence this post I was going to share tomorrow morning but with the power cut off, which put a halt to my projects, I decided to be productive which is this post now. Fortunately, my laptop is fully charged and my phone serves as my hotspot. Good things to think about when your power goes out after a storm. Keep everything energized as in your laptop (it will work more efficiently if it is anyway) and set your phone up as a hotspot if you are on a cell phone network (not just wifi). With that said, a look at a very subdued Atlantic MDR region, especially for the historical peak of a traditional hurricane season, which is a bit disconcerting although very welcome for the time being. So would more rain.

Normally, tropical waves are falling off the African coast every 4-5 days with every one a potential threat. They still are, however, the effects of a lingering Saharan Dust Layer and dry, stable,sinking air have conspired to continue to be our friend and put an end, including hurricane Erin's ambitions, to their own ambitions of wreaking havoc across the Caribbean and beyond. The Bermuda high, which steered hurricane Erin through the narrow area above the northern Lesser Antilles, to the east of the Turks & Caicos, avoiding the east coast of the mainland US, then avoiding, as well, Bermuda, was something of a phenomenal meteorological feat. I highly doubt we will see that scenario again for a long time. I also doubt we will see a scenario that played out like ex 91L. If it wasn't for the above factors (dust, sinking stable air), another major would, in all probability, have manifested itself with a whole different outcome.

Looking ahead, I believe things are about to change towards the end of the month into October. While it might not be as active as originally forecast, one is all it takes. So, there is one just about to splash off the coast of Africa, a bit high up at the moment with the NHC already having a vigilant look at its potential. Slow development is forecast as the SAL (dust) level is finally dissipating as our friend and changes to the MDR from the west materialize in the form of more favorable atmospheric conditions for development.

The wave behind this first one is my attention getter as it appears to be a low rider but several days to departure from land. There is another, not yet manifested area the long term models have made note of in the SW Caribbean, which, if it does come to fruition. could become problematic to the northern Gulf Coast, making a beeline for Florida in about 10-12 days. This setup is especially concerning as the GOMEX or GOA (regardless, same body of water), has not yet been tested by tropical systems this year and the result is the highest heat content for this time of year, even above 2024's. This pressure cooker of hot soup is a recipe for a tropical system of disaster if one manifests itself with rapid intensification potential ominously present. Let's hope the cold fronts, early this year for the Gulf, have a positive impact on this possibility.

Stay safe and prepared. Power is back on. For how long........

Dave

Sunday, September 7, 2025 07:57AM EDT - POOF!

Good morning,

Weather is an inexact science. It's also called a "dry" science for its many scientific big words. Right now, dry is the operative great word. 91L's demise, highly unusual, was caused by dry sinking air resulting in low moisture/humidity levels and lingering, late in the season Saharan Dust. Usually, these systems can eventually fend off these conditions, develop an encircling moisture envelope, and begin to strengthen. This is what most models and weather experts expected. Well, not this time. Another curveball has been thrown and a good one at that. The Caribbean and the SE coast are breathing a sigh of relief as a result.This doesn't mean it cannot regenerate down the road but it will be a struggle to do so. Any rain generated will be welcome though. Mother Nature does not follow the models nor what humans perceive what is going to happen all the time, hence, inexact.

Complacency however, is exact and can injure or even kill. This one poofed. There will be more as we head into the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While we all are thankful for the reprieve of 91L's doom, we still have to be vigilant and ready. We have 1/2 a season still to go and it still appears backloaded. Again, it only takes one.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Thursday, September 4, 2025 07:28AM EDT - Invest & Uncertainty incoming

Good morning,

The system we have been monitoring is now along 35W moving slowly now WNW around 10 mph while starting to consolidate the convection that has been previously disorganized and scattered. An Invest should be declared sometime today which will start more computer model runs and more intense scrutiny as to its intentions. Those have varied widely and too early to tell still as no COC (Center of Circulation) has closed off. Depression status is expected by or on the weekend. As far as the projected track goes, that's up in the air as well due to a non closed off center. However, the same scenarios from yesterday remain.

A southward dip takes it into the central to northern Leewards. A trip north of the islands but bending westward afterwards and pulling a Dorian-like trek through the Bahamas and into Florida. Or pulling an Erin and threading the needle between the east coast and Bermuda with Bermuda getting the brunt of the passage. I have to say, at this moment, our islands will get some impacts from a low grade system, but the Bahamas and Florida will not be so lucky. Again this is now looking over a week ahead. Things change.

Bottom line is just be vigilant and prepared as too early to nail anything down other than this doesn't look good down the road for someone. And it only takes one. Speaking of one, we also have a blob that blew up overnight around 9.5N, 47W. This little blowup is tangled up with the northern fringes of the ITCZ and will have little chance of a surprise tropical entity unless it manages to pull away from it. Regardless, it's looking like it's headed toward the Southern Windwards.

Off topic for the Caribbean, Hurricane Loreta is impacting the Baja Peninsula of Mexico which eventually will bring some much needed drought relief to the SW US plus help with wildfire issues. Hurricane Kiko rapidly intensified overnight and is now a 145mph hurricane taking a bead on the Hawaiian Islands. Crossing over cooler waters should weaken it to a low end Cat 1 or TS by the time of any landfall.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Wednesday, September 3, 2025 07:38AM EDT - On schedule

Good morning,

A short note to start the morning off. The historical height of hurricane season is almost upon us already. As if on schedule, a tropical wave, disorganized for the time being, is located near 31W, moving to the west for the most part at 17mph, and south of the Saharan Dust Layer. This position, along with higher than average SST's makes it a very good candidate to climb the name ladder, which would be Gabrielle.

It probably would already be a depression if it wasn't for its encounter with moderate to high wind shear so a slower pace of development is anticipated which is not a good sign for most of us wishing it to go OTS aka become a fish storm.

Current model tracks vary from the American model strengthening the system quicker and curving it OTS before the islands while the EURO and the Google models develop it slower, hence a good chance of a strike in the mid to northern islands. Strength wise to be determined down the road. The steering current, provided via the Bermuda High, is very strong and this ridge is likely to keep this system on a westerly if not a tad south of west for the next few days.

Bottom line, if you're still not prepared, then now you might want to think about it if you're from Dominica up to the northern Leewards. This is not a wolf scenario but a plausible one at this juncture. It is still too early to tell where it will go and what strength will be attained. However, a steering high with a strong ridge holding it down is a sign seen before. Her name was Irma.

More tomorrow morning. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Friday, August 22, 2025 07:34AM EDT - Erin the large Entertainer

Good morning all,

While still Cat 1 Hurricane Erin is entertaining the northeast US and the Canadian Maritimes with her very large girth (over 700 miles in diameter) and hurricane force winds up to 125 miles from the center, her effects still are farther reaching than that. She is also expected to even gain more weight as she traverses the North Atlantic waters while retaining hurricane force winds for the next 3 days, transitioning to a post/extra tropical system while slowing down which, usually, they speed up when they gain latitude.

90L: Having threaded the needle from the Caribbean, up between the east coast and Bermuda, now racing to a pit stop south of Iceland (somehow hurricane and Iceland in the same sentence lol), with an even larger, extra tropical windfield commencing, the amazing and long lived Erin will continue to menace the coastlines of the eastern US and Canada. Even Bermuda is still getting a tail lashing as Erin pulls away. That lashing is nothing compared to what could have occurred if Erin had made a direct landfall. Nothing short of a weather miracle she didn't.

Speaking of Bermuda, that hurricane magnet out in the Atlantic, could be experiencing another close call shortly with 90L. This system should throw some needed showers to the northernmost Leewards, but impressive amounts are not expected. The major models are split (no pun intended) on 90L's potential future track. One, the American model, has 90L developing and pulling an Erin between Bermuda and the east coast. The European has a closer call going over or just off to Bermuda's east, while developing as well into a Cat 1. Obviously, time will tell.

99L: This one is a tad perplexing. Looks to be a late bloomer, having to deal with dry Saharan Dust north and in front while trying to develop a closed circulation and not doing a good job of it at the moment. For us, that's a good thing normally. However, potential bad things happen when a system does not develop early. The closer it gets to our islands without developing and then transitioning rapidly close by, does not allow enough time for residents to get prepared (if they haven't already anyway). In addition, the stronger a system is, the better chance, not always though, it trends poleward with a better chance at becoming a fish storm and not a Caribbean menace.

Current modeling shows a track through the central Windwards with a few outliers showing a more northward track as maybe a mid TS or a low Cat 1in 5 days. Many keep it at depression status and some, no development. Hence, perplexing at the moment. Weather is an inexact science which is why we all need to be prepared no matter what the forecast as it can change far more rapidly than you think you can react.

Stay safe and prepared!

Dave.

Tuesday, August 19, 2025 17:03PM PDT - Bermuda next?

Erin is now 'just' a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph sustained winds. But it is a much larger storm now. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles and tropical storm winds 230 miles.

Erin is not expected to make any landfall, and will nicely go in between the US mainland and Bermuda before making a turn east towards Europe. The center of Erin is forecasted to stay about 350 miles from Bermuda, and since the wind field is increasing tropical storm watches have been issued for Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are possible Thursday and Friday. The advisories give it a 34% chance that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds.

Bermuda will be able to handle this well, but still, don't underestimate this storm. When you superimpose the satellite image on the closes point of approach-tool you will see that the outer bands of the storm will reach Bermuda. Be especially careful at the beaches since the storm will cause big waves and rip tides.

Stay safe everybody, don't do stupid things! -Gert

Monday, August 18, 2025 16:07PM EDT - Evolving Erin

Good afternoon all,

After experiencing rapidly intensified Hurricane Erin in the US Virgin Islands, namely, St. Thomas over the weekend, I made it back to my Florida domicile after midnight last night luckily. 23 flights were cancelled Saturday, (mine was delayed 5 times and finally cancelled at 5 am Sunday) and from what I was told by a flight attendant, all Delta, United, Spirit, and Frontier flights were cancelled Sunday. with only 2 American flights leaving, mine included. Power was out island wide from approx 6:15 ish through my leaving for the airport around 3pm ish. Good thing I made it out. I was told I would have not reached back to Florida until Saturday as all flights are sold out/full until then.

Erin is a monstrous Cat 4 menace after undergoing her most recent eye wall replacement cycle even though she is anticipated to not have any direct interaction with land, basically threading the needle between the Greater Antilles, the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes eventually. Talk about dodging the proverbial bullet. A large caliber at that.

The low lying countries of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas will experience not only TS force winds but a very angry sea with large waves, rip currents and potentially devastating beach erosion; much like the Outer Banks are going to experience down the road as Erin passes. There, parts of Highway 12 will probably disappear. Mandatory evacuations are up for the OBX but many won't leave, unfortunately. Potential wave heights of 15-25 feet will not be a welcome visitor.

Bermuda, a well bunkered and experienced hurricane magnet, will surely take a pounding as Erin passes off the her west while avoiding a direct hit but in this case, less, is more. With much more hurricane season to come, I'm sure they will have a few more tests.

Speaking of more tests, another bowling ball in the MDR has rolled off the coast of Africa and already has the attention of the NHC resulting in a now 60% chance of development into a tropical entity in the central Atlantic. A very, very broad circulation coupled with Saharan Dust to the north and in front along with stable mid level air, is keeping this system on the low down at the moment. Once further towards the west, the circumstances will change to a more favorable environment. Whether it stays on a more southerly and westward track or follows the skirt of Hurricane Erin (next name is Fernand), is up in the air at the moment. All depends on the ridging to the north.

As always time will tell. As shared by Gert and myself, we have dodged a serious large caliber round in the Caribbean. There is still 113 days left in official hurricane season. Over half with the roughest period is ahead. Not every system will follow the lucky path of Erin as in non direct land interaction.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Sunday, August 17, 2025 10:46AM PDT - Erin

How lucky we are so far! Erin who was still just a tropical storm Friday morning exploded into a Category 5 hurricane in just 25 hours on Saturday morning. Dave already alluded to this rapid intensification yesterday. This is happening more and more now due to increasing sea surface temperatures because of human induced global warming. This rapid intensification was all happening while Erin was passing just over 100 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. If the track would have been just a bit more south we would have been in big trouble!

Erin has now 'weakened' to a strong Category 3 hurricane, so still a major one, due to an eye wall replacement cycle, packing 125 mph sustained winds. Right now it is passing 150+ miles north of the Dominican Republic, en route to the Turks & Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. According to the Closest Point of Approach-tool Erin's center will pass about 120 miles from Grand Turk tomorrow AM. However, conditions will deteriorate much quicker, since Erin is now a much larger storm. Tropical storm winds extend now outward up to 205 miles, so well within reach of the TCI. Some key messages from the advisories from the National Hurricane Center:

    1. Heavy rainfall will continue into Monday across Puerto Rico, but  
    is expected to diminish over the Virgin Islands later today.  
    Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides  
    or mudslides, are possible.  
   
    2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos  
    Islands and are possible in the Southeast Bahamas tonight and  
    Monday. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in Erin's outer  
    rainbands in portions of Puerto Rico today and the central Bahamas  
    on Monday and Tuesday.  
   
    3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip  
    currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of  
    the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 

Erin is expected to become a bit stronger again, since it is moving over very warm waters and better atmospheric conditions ahead. It might reach Category 4 status (min. 130 mph winds) later today. On its current forecasted track the center should stay about 300 miles to the west of Bermuda, hopefully that will hold!

So far the islands have done quite well. Thanks to all the special hurricane correspondents who have posted their first hand reports! Stay safe everybody! Don't do anything stupid.

Last but not least, another tropical wave came of the African Coast the other day. It seems to be on a bit more southern track than Erin. So far the National Hurricane Center gives it a low chance (30%) that it will develop into something over the next 7 days. Stay tuned! -Gert

Saturday, August 16, 2025 07:07AM EDT - RI Erin

Good morning all,

As suggested yesterday, Hurricane Erin has rapidly intensified to a Cat 4 with 130 mph sustained winds. A far cry from yesterday morning's strong TS at this time. That was lightning quick for a tropical system. She just had to seal off her inner core and then the fun began. This rapid rise looks to continue and a quite possible Cat 5 status will be flirted with and possibly attained. Small core hurricanes, currently only 7 miles in diameter, can change quickly either in strength or decreasing strength and with very favorable conditions ahead for the next 24-36 hours, a Cat 5 is quite possible. Inbound flight level winds (around 10,000 feet) were measured at 135.8 mph while outbound flight level winds were measured at 140.4 mph.

Current movement is said to be to the WNW around 20 mph. Interesting it can RI while moving forward at that speed, however, again, it is a very small cored hurricane with hurricane radius winds only stretching out 30 miles. A direct hit on any land mass would have "cat"astrophic consequences.

Satellite loops currently show a more westerly track to a slight WSW move at the moment but that is just a wobble and should resume it's WNW expected trek. This should be a thread the needle event as far as directly affecting any land mass for now. Erin will grow in overall size though, doubling and possibly tripling her girth making for a massive hurricane running amuck. This will affect thousands of miles of coastline along the east coast of the US, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the Greater Antilles.

Bermuda, this will probably be a very close call and will affect you for a good period of time. This island is well versed in tropical assaults and has weathered many storms and better prepared than almost any of her southerly Caribbean neighbors. Erin will surely test Bermuda's resilience and preparedness if the forecast track verifies. One thing, if Erin misses it's turn towards the NW and eventually N, the southeast coast would be in trouble. Extremely small possibility but not to be totally dismissed. Just covering all the bases. After Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes, Newfoundland and Labrador could have a rough time with the arrival of then extra tropical Erin.

While the Lesser Antilles have dodged a very dangerous bullet, it should serve notice of awakening. It's only August and we have 6-8 weeks of prime hurricane season ahead. The tropical waves are lined up across Africa and another has just splashed down drawing plenty of interest from the NHC already with possible Caribbean effects next weekend. With that said,

Stay safe and prepared. Erin has fired the opening salvo warning bell.

Dave.

Friday, August 15, 2025 06:57AM EDT - Finally turning Erin

Good morning all,

For a while there, it looked like TS Erin was going to push as far west as possible, ignoring the forecasts and climatology, thereby directly impacting the Leeward Islands. Now, finally, starting late yesterday, she has made the gradual turn. Still, there will be impacts and any wobble to the west and/or south will possibly dramatically increase those effects with little time to react.

Hurricane Hunters have been investigating strong TS Erin since yesterday late afternoon. Latest update shows 70mph with higher gusts on a WNW gradual track. However, her development has been slowed by an entrainment of yummy dry air from the SW according to water vapor imagery resulting, not only in slow development, but a temporary inability to close off her inner core, basically an eye. This will be helpful as to the possible effects over the next few days but she is still expected to reach hurricane status today after spitting out the dry air she inhaled and sealing off her center. Currently, the 3rd hurricane hunter mission is investigating using, not a modified C-130, but a NOAA P-3 which will be sampling structure and strength which then will be integrated into the forecast.

TS watches are up for Anguilla, Barbuda, French and Dutch St. Maarten/St. Martin. St. Eustasius, Saba, and St. Barthelemy aka St. Barts.Further watches and warnings will be issued as Erin moves along at a still fairly brisk 17mph, which also is helping to temporarily inhibit her getting her act together. Good news.

Down the weekend road and beyond is interesting as well. There still is a good amount of uncertainty after passing the VI's and PR, of how soon she will exploit a weakness in the steering currents and turn towards the NW which could put Bermuda having an unwelcome date with a potential Cat 3 and maybe a Cat 4. RI, aka rapid intensification, is possible over the next 24-48 hours. Not probable but possible. As discombobulated as she looks on satellite imagery this morning, even carrying 70 mph winds, do not be surprised if this occurs. Fortunately, we are forecast to be on the weaker side of Erin but still, we'd rather have no side.

Please use the closest point of approach tool here at stormcarib.com for the latest update on how close it's forecast to reach where you are. For myself here in the USVI, St. thomas/St. John, the closest, if she stays on current speed and track, will be approx. 175 miles to the NE on Sunday just after midnight. For St. Croix, that will be approx. 210 miles to the NE Saturday night around 10:30 pm. Of course, striking in the dark per usual.

More updates are coming. Time for work. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Thursday, August 14, 2025 10:10AM PDT - Erin

Erin is nearing the islands and is now in view on the satellite map above. Currently it is about 800 miles east of us. Since it is moving at about 17 mph it would take less than 2 days to arrive. So take note of that!

Though still just a tropical storm, Erin is looking a lot better organized. Conditions are improving as well and intensification is expected to be faster than earlier thought. Erin is now forecasted to be a hurricane in 24 hours, and expected to be a Category 2 by the time it is closest to the islands in 48 hours.

Although Erin is still moving a tad south of due west, it should be starting to move more north soon. You can see the movement when you click on 'loop' in the pink tool section above. The models are in pretty good agreement that the storm should pass well north of us. The closest point of approach (CPA) with Anguilla is about 135 miles on Saturday (see picture below). The CPA has been fluctuating a bit, yesterday it was 40-50 miles further, but the day before it was about 20 miles further. I don't expect a direct hit, but we should be prepared that Erin might pass closer than we think. In 2 days tropical storm winds are expected to extend about 90 miles to the southeast, so not that far away. The advisories give St.Maarten a 32% chance of getting tropical storm winds. They also do note the following:
Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and
tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as
the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin.

Erin is expected to curve north before reaching the US, although forecasts are trending westward. More westward would be good for Bermuda, but this is all a few more days away, so harder to forecast. Right now people in the northeastern islands should take this storm seriously. Although it looks like it will move well north of us, forecasts are not set in stone. A little wobble southward will change things a lot. Starting aturday morning we should feel it! Stay safe everybody! -Gert

- - - Closest Point of Approach of Erin with Anguilla - - -

Wednesday, August 13, 2025 06:53AM EDT - TS Erin

Good morning,

TS Erin continues to chug along at approx. 20 mph south of due west while still maintaining a satellite derived max sustained winds of 45 mph but she is disheveled at the moment due to some easterly shear interaction, less than optimum SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures), less humidity to work with and a slight taste for some Saharan Dust.

All these factors are contributing to slow development which is aiding TS Erin's movement mainly west instead of allowing her to gear up and move towards the north sooner. Even if that did occur, the strong ridge courtesy of the high pressure to the north, would continue to steer her mainly west but allow for nudging to the north quicker.

In a couple days, TS Erin will enter warmer waters and less shear with hurricane formation expected on Friday. Currently, TS force winds stretch out up to 60 miles.Obviously, that will change as Erin strengthens. Currently, she will be approx 226 miles to the NE of St. Thomas/St. John/WI early Sunday morning as a Cat 2 hurricane and 262 miles to the NE from St. Croix. Antigua is forecast to be 226 miles from Erin on Saturday afternoon. Use the closest point of approach tool to find your island.

The caveat to this, is that this is the nowcast with Erin only being a TS, maintaining it's current speed, current forecast track, and current forecast strengthening. We all know how this is going to change but this gives a guideline at the moment. The biggest unknown, even though forecast, is when she takes advantage of the slight break in the ridge. The farther west she goes before turning, the impacts will be greater on the Northern Leewards. Irma never turned but kept dropping because the expected weakness materialized too late to spare the Northern Leewards as a Cat 5.

So, we learn to expect the unexpected. No crying wolf here. Just stating the facts and possibilities. Airlines have sadly raised their prices to ridiculous levels already for those wanting to leave before Sunday. I saw seats this morning on Friday at over 3k! As of yesterday eve there were plenty of seats available. for Friday. Now, virtually none as many tourists, who normally leave Saturday and Sunday, appear to have changed their plans.

Bottom line is to be vigilant and prepare if you haven't already for this season. Even if nothing happens, you will be ready for the rest of the season! Fingers and toes crossed.

More to come. Stay safe and prepared and look out for your elderly neighbors and your pets.

Dave.

Monday, August 11, 2025 10:32AM EDT - TS Erin

Good morning all,

A quick update. The NHC will be issuing advisories on newly formed TS Erin located on the western periphery of the Cabo Verde islands. Unfortunately, TS Erin already has a death toll of 5 confirmed so far from flooding in the Cabo Verde Islands. Get yourselves together folks and be ever vigilant.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave.

Sunday, August 10, 2025 20:26PM EDT - Soon to be Erin

Good evening,

Hope all is well as can be with you this Sunday evening. Tropical wise not so much in the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa at the moment into tomorrow but more on that in a bit.

96L: Now just a nuisance invest with a small chance of developing into something as it escapes finally, the grasp of the omnipresent Saharan Dust Layer. Moving northward though, will limit its development opportunity and even if it does make even TD status, a true fish storm and a threat to only shipping interests.

The Gulf of Mexico/America system. Looks to be just a serious rainmaker along the gulf coast even though conditions, especially high oceanic heat content and low to medium wind shear are evident. Not even marked as an Invest. However, this body of water will probably play an unhappy role further down the road before November 30th.

Now to the meat. 97L. The NHC has been watching this one from before splashdown off the African coastline. Satellite observations plus surface observations have the "almost center location" at approx. 16N, 24W moving to the W/WNW at about 15-20 mph. Those coordinates put 97L right over the Cabo Verde Islands, formerly the Cape Verde Islands. Current conditions are pretty rough there as the system goes through those islands while trying to get its act together and could even emerge as a depression on its way across the MDR.

Once free from land interaction, its trek across the MDR will be an interesting one. While there is still copious amounts of Saharan Dust in front of it to slow potential development down, the dust is moving in sync across the Atlantic, as in the same mph as the storm so until 97L decides to take a more WNW course, it will have time to get organized better thereby having a good chance to make actually hurricane status as it approaches the Northern Leeward Islands. Maybe eventually, after passing said islands, it will reach our first major hurricane of 2025.

If 97L develops quickly, then the best option for it will be to take advantage of the weakness between the 2 high pressure systems to the north and curve northward, thereby sparing direct impacts to the northern islands. If it remains weaker, or farther dipping south than the models suggest aka Irma 2017, then it will probably intensify, maybe RI as well, while menacing the Greater Antilles. By then it could still take a northward curve, thereby avoiding a direct hit on the SE coast of the mainland because of the left side of the high pressure steering flow. If not, it's gonna be a rough ride from the cusp of the northern Antilles and beyond.

So, I just gave all the potential scenarios as we know them at this moment for 97L. I suggest getting prepared wherever you are if you haven't done so already with so many weather options on the table. Plus, behind 97L, the next 2 waves I believe will have evil intentions as well with 96L and 97L the vanguard of moistening the atmosphere along the yellow brick road of the MDR.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, August 4, 2025 07:28AM EDT - Atlantic wake up

Good morning,

After a quick start with 3 short lived tropical storms, July was quiet in the Atlantic while the Eastern Pacific ramped up and is still going. Usually when they are active, we are quiet. It appears that Atlantic slumber has come to an end. We have the potential for 3 named storms by the end of next weekend with TS Dexter having finally made his appearance.

TS Dexter is no threat to land, taking the exit route NE into the Atlantic. Currently approx. 230 miles to the NW of Bermuda, Dexter will cause some rough seas and rip currents to Bermuda but little else. Dexter is a sheared system and will eventually, in a few days, move into cooler waters and become a strong extra tropical low, possibly menacing Europe down the road.

The next one in line will be menacing the southeast coast probably btw Georgia and NC this coming weekend. It is not certain if it will reach named status though. All that depends on how long it takes to get its act together after breaking off the tail of the front that TS Dexter is riding. While Dexter heads NE, this entity will move towards the WNW on a collision course with an already soggy southeast. The next name is Erin which will definitely be a short lived name if it does make TS status. Regardless if it makes name or not, the impacts will be the same. Gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas and potential flash flooding, again, on already soggy ground. SC looks to be the bullseye at the moment but still days away.

Now to the MDR (Main Development Region) where we have our first potential Cabo Verde storm and possible hurricane developing as it crosses the Atlantic. Having just splashed down off the West African Coast this morning, this tropical wave is moving to the west at a slow 6-12 mph. Too early to tell what it will become and where it will go and the models are split. One of the majors has it curving into the Atlantic aka fish storm and one has it headed for the Caribbean. One thing for sure is if it develops into a hurricane and doesn't get picked up and turned away, the NE Caribbean, Bahamas and Florida might be in trouble. These are just scenarios down the road as nothing is in stone. Her's hoping the dust and shear win.

Again, too early but it's never too early to get or be prepared and now is the time to get it done. Complacency kills. Preparation is key as is always keeping a wary eye on what's happening. More this week.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Monday, July 21, 2025 21:22PM EDT - 94L and probable 95L

Good evening,

94L is running out of time about 760 miles E/SE of the eastern Caribbean islands. Moving WNW about between 10-15 mph, it is expected to make minor impacts Tuesday night into Wednesday engaging the Mid to Northern Antilles via prevailing steering currents. Still, miles away, things can change and might take a more northerly swing into the island chain. While looking discombobulated on satellite, heavy and possibly flooding rain possibilities exist from Dominica north to Puerto Rico. Chances of development, according to the NHC, are very low due to increasing wind shear and the omnipresent Saharan Dust in its forward trek. Regardless, gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas and the rain will be prevalent.

After moving though the islands, where it might go is really unknown but the Bahamas and Florida should keep an eye as it traverses very warm waters and lowering wind shear once close to the Turks and Caicos.

Potential 95L, just splashing off the African coast, has attention already with potential, but I'm more interested in the wave behind. it. Time will tell of course.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Tuesday, July 15, 2025 07:38AM EDT - 93L

Good morning,

May, June, July. Historically the time for "home grown" storms, aka Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic east coast with a sprinkling of the western Caribbean thrown in. So far we have had 3 named homegrown storms, all short lived but with tragic effects nonetheless. Tropical storms may not pack the wind punch but sure do pack a flood punch and this seems to be the season of floods. Now we have 93L. If named, he will be Dexter with another expected short life but also potentially tragic down the road flood wise. We will see. Currently, it's just a low with a broad but pronounced low level spin.

93L, currently swirling off Florida's east coast, is poised to cross the Florida peninsula later today on a slightly north western track. Once it enters the GOMEX, it's a crapshoot at the moment with a definitive track not identified although there are 2 scenarios.

The first is a GOMEX coastline hugger which, while causing high surf, rip currents, flooding rains and ruining some summer vacations along that northern coastline, its proximity to land should inhibit its ability to strengthen, limiting it's time over the bathwater it's traversing. Maybe reaching TD status or Dexter status before turning north into the coast around Mississippi/Louisiana. This is the prevailing wind flow at the moment.

The second, more ominous track takes 93L on a more southerly route dipping into kore of the middle of the GOMEX. This means more time over the untouched bathwater that is the fuel for these systems. This is not good. Potential for Dexter rises exponentially. What it could evolve into remains to be seen but the longer it hangs, the rising potential for strengthening. This system would have to swing around a subtropical ridge in this case which would potentially bring it in as a strong TS into southern Louisiana and/or the Houston area. The longer it stays over water is the crucial component here. RI, while not expected, is not out of the realm of possibility if it follows this track. Let's hope it just is a coast hugger.

Off to the east, a wave at 35W is raising some interest even with copious amounts of seasonal Saharan Dust to its north. Another wave had exited the African coast while another, about 4-5 days from now, has already raised an eyebrow or two. Season will be heating up as we get deeper into this season so preparation and weather awareness will be the keys.

Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Thursday, July 10, 2025 13:24PM PDT - New forecast

Chantal came and went. The winds weren't too bad, but Chantal dropped 7-8 inch rain locally in North Carolina, so lots of flooding. Unfortunately, five people are confirmed dead.

On another note, researchers at Colorado State issued their July forecast. A bit of good news, they think it might be a little less active than previously forecasted, with 16 tropical storms (was 17 in June, 14.4 is normal). We had 3 already, so 13 more to go. They also predict one less hurricane (8, was 9, normal is 7.2) and one less major hurricane (3, was 4, normal is 3.2). Total storm activity calculated as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was also decreased from 155 to 140 (123 is normal). Chance of one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a big area) is 53% (was 56%, normal is 47%).

Main reasons for lowering the forecast are the expected higher levels of vertical wind shear in the Caribbean, which normally leads to a less active season. However, other predictors, like sea surface temperatures are still pointing to a very active season. Also, I am not sure how the higher vertical wind shear in the Caribbean protects the islands on the eastern island chain from say Cape Verde storms. But luckily it does look that the higher shear zone extends somewhat eastward into the Atlantic, so maybe hurricanes would weaken a bit when they approach the islands.

In other news, Michael Lowry (a Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert at WPLG-TV in Miami) posted on his Eye on the Tropics-blog an article titled: Top Hurricane Scientists Sound the Alarm on Looming NOAA Cuts. One of the points is that cuts at AOML, that houses the Hurricane Research Division would decrease the hurricane forecasting accuracy by 20-40%, which would add $10 billion in hurricane related cost per hurricane season. AOML's annual budget is around $20 million, which is only 0.2% of $10 billion. Seems like a good investment, not even accounting for increased fatalities. It does not make sense to me. So frustrating. -Gert

Saturday, July 5, 2025 17:50PM EDT - TS Chantal

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has had a slow start like harness racing, most fortunately , while the Eastern Pacific has taken off like the Triple Crown, Hurricane Erik included. That will most likely change and the Atlantic will catch up to speed as we head into the 6th week of the Atlantic season.

Homegrown systems are the norm in the first 2 months and the last month of the official hurricane season and so far, unlike Hurricane Beryl, last year's biggest anomaly, the same is true. But now, we have TS Chantal. Plus an interesting wave just off the African coast.

TS Chantal, not a threat to the Caribbean, should make landfall overnight tonight into South Carolina. As Gert alluded to in his previous post, while Chantal is not expected to get above midgrade TS status due to wind shear which is diminishing and dry air intrusion taking its place, being over those very warm gulf stream waters could lend a helping hand to a higher than mid level TS strength at landfall. Just a possibility.

Regardless, or irregardless as I like to poke the bear, Chantal will bring heavy rains between 2-6 inches (local spots maybe more) depending on forward speed and topography plus gusty winds with some flash flooding, downed vegetation, power losses, and some structural damage before degrading rapidly Monday into North Carolina.

With most of lopsided Chantal's vigorous energy focused on her north eastern side, at this time, at landfall, her full effect will be focused head on. Her southern end will receive minimal effects, still though, not to be ignored.

To the east, a wave just off the African coast has caught some attention. Saharan Dust has been most prevalent, as usual this time of year and our major protector in the Caribbean while high level wind shear moving towards the NE off of South America's northern coast heading towards the Eastern Caribbean islands adds an additional layer of protection. Dried out air and wind shear mean usual doom for incoming systems trying to make a name for themselves. However, not always. A few have managed to buck the system.

Hence, never take any of the tropics for granted. Always expect the unexpected. It happens. Stay safe and prepared.

Dave

Saturday, July 5, 2025 11:40AM PDT - Chantal

This morning Invest 92L was upgraded to tropical depression Chantal. It is currently drifting slowly north about 170 miles to the east of Brunswick, Georgia. It will be a short lived storm since it is expected to make landfall tomorrow close to Georgetown, South Carolina (in between Charleston and Myrtle Beach). However, when I look at the current satellite images, the center of Chantal is well to east of the forecasted track. So I think it will make landfall closer to Myrtle Beach then currently forecasted. Esp. people on the east (north/right) side of the track should pay close attention. For your convenience, I have added cities along the US East Coast to the closest point of approach-calculator, there is an option to overlay the latest satellite image so you can see it for yourself.

Although Chantal is 'just' a tropical storm and relative close to the coast, don't underestimate it. The temperature of the Gulf Stream is quite high, and additional strengthening is forecasted. Right now it doesn't look like it will become a hurricane but we have seen 'unexpected' rapid intensification happen when storms are close to the coast and above warm water. Major hazards will be the wind and the rainfall, which can cause flooding. Stay safe everybody. -Gert

Saturday, June 28, 2025 09:32AM EDT - 91L

Good morning all,

I hope and trust all is well as can be with everyone. Having broken 5 ribs a week ago has put a crimp in many things I do so needless to say I haven't been up to speed lately.

The first short lived fish storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Andrea, was, as Gert shared, a storm we like, is no longer,but a fleeting memory of the start to this season. Still, a wake up call for what lies ahead. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has been almost over active as their historical season starts 2 weeks, mid May, before the Atlantic officially begins.

Now we have 91L in the Bay of Campeche headed for a collision with the SE coast of Mexico while drenching flooding rains fall on Belize and Guatemala. Will it have the time to realize a named storm which would be next in line Barry? Possibly, but it has a short lifespan to make it happen. With the ultra warm waters and limited wind shear, it does have a good possibility to rapidly intensify from invest to a named entity. Time will tell.

Regardless,heavy rains and flash flooding will be its legacy, no matter if it realizes a name or not.

Looking towards the east, we will have a few early season waves approach but with the hostile upper level wind shear and heavy effects of the Saharan Dust Layer, chances are quite low of anything tropical developing anytime soon. However, do not let that deceive you as some waves have overcome the odds like this and manifested themselves into tropical entities.

The mantra, stay safe and prepared. Have a good weekend.

Dave

Tuesday, June 24, 2025 08:48AM PDT - Andrea

As I alluded to yesterday, Invest 90L has become the first tropical storm of the season, Andrea. It is far away from us (950 miles to the northeast of Bermuda, and about 1500 miles from the islands) and moving away. Also, Andrea will be short lived since it awaits colder sea surface temperatures and high wind shear. It might not even last a day. One down, we like these storms.

On a separate note, today the website part that is hosted on one of the dedicated servers will be migrated to a 'new generation' server by my excellent web host pairNetworks, so it will be down for hopefully not too long. -Gert

Monday, June 23, 2025 16:00PM PDT - Some action?

Our first invest this year! Luckily it is in the subtropical Atlantic, over 600 miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. If it develops into something , it won't affect us in the Caribbean. It is nice to have a slow start of hurricane season. Last year around this time a tropical wave came off the African coast and became Hurricane Beryl, making landfall on Carriacou July 1st with 140 mph winds! -Gert

Monday, June 16, 2025 11:54AM PDT - Updated hurricane forecast, part 2

I couldn't quite find the island-specific impact probabilities on the Colorado State website, when I wrote my update last week. But now I did find it here. Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2000). Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit. Even though your probability is low, it doesn't mean you are out of the woods. Just like last year, Grenada has only 1% probability, but it did get hit last year with monster storm Beryl. So even if your chances are low, there is still a chance! Stay safe this season! It really helps if you are prepared! -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Wednesday, June 11, 2025 09:25AM PDT - Updated hurricane forecast

Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued their June update of the 2025 hurricane activity forecast. They still expect an above average season. Similar to the April forecast they expect 17 tropical storms (14.4 is normal), of which 9 become hurricanes (7.2 is normal) and 4 major hurricanes (3.2 is normal). The accumulated cyclone energy index (more or less a measure of the sum of each storm's daily power) is 155 (123 is normal). There is a 56% chance that at least one major hurricane will travel through the Caribbean region (a large area, long term average is 47%).

The main reasons for this are above average sea surface temperatures and neutral ENSO conditions (El Nino/La Nina). Sea surface temperatures are not as extreme as last year, when the trade winds were not as strong as normal causing less mixing of the water column, which heated up the surface more. The weaker trade winds were due to the weaker Azores High, a more or less permanent high pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean. This year the trade winds are back, but sea surface temperatures are still above normal mainly due to human-induced climate change.

Currently in the Atlantic all is relatively quiet with no development expected in the next week. This is in contrast with the eastern Pacific, where they had already 3 storms. We just have to cope with Saharan dust and a lot of sargassum :-(. We know the storms will come, so now is a good time to get ready! Check your hurricane shutters, buy some extra canned food and water, etc. You know what to do, it is not your first time! Stay safe! -Gert

Sunday, June 1, 2025 09:44AM PDT - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts

It is June 1st again. Official start of the hurricane season. The forecasts by NOAA, Tropical Storm Risk and Colorado State all indicate an above average season. Mainly due to above normal sea surface temperature (ocean's heat is the hurricane's energy source) which is not surprising due to the human-induced climate change. Also, there doesn't seem to be an El Nino on the horizon, which normally leads to less hurricanes, with mostly neutral ENSO conditions forecasted throughout the season.

Below the names of this season. This is a list that is repeated every 6 years. Notable hurricane names are retired. New name on this list is Dexter, that replaced Dorian, a horrific hurricane that hit the Bahamas in 2019, I still remember well.

Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea        AN-dree uh         Lorenzo       loh-REN-zoh
Barry         BAIR-ree           Melissa       meh-LIH-suh
Chantal       shahn-TAHL         Nestor        NES-tor
Dexter        DEHK-ster          Olga          OAL-guh
Erin          AIR-rin            Pablo         PAHB-lo
Fernand       fair-NAHN          Rebekah       reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle     ga-bree-ELL        Sebastien     se-BAS-tee-en
Humberto      oom-BAIR-toh       Tanya         TAHN-yuh
Imelda        ee-MEHL-dah        Van           van
Jerry         JEHR-ee            Wendy         WEN-dee
Karen         KAIR-ren

This is the 30th year that we are covering it! I started in 1996, before blogging was a word, or Google even existed! I never expected to still be doing this 30 years later with my friend Dave. This sometimes extremely busy website is hosted on 2 dedicated servers. They don't come cheap. So please, consider donating to keep the website going. Now you can use Venmo and Stripe as well. I lost my biggest donor this year, so it is even more needed.

Dave and I will give you Caribbean focused information again this season. We are ready. Hope the season won't be too bad, but we all know, it only takes one! Like Dave wrote yesterday, "Let's be prepared and be safe starting off." Hope everyone is ready. I also hope that the reckless chainsaw cuts by the US government to NOAA and FEMA won't affect their readiness and that, to name just a few possible effects, the Hurricane Hunters can still fly their missions, the National Hurricane Center still has the manpower to run and interpret model forecasts, and aid will still flow where it will be needed. -Gert

Saturday, May 31, 2025 18:42PM EDT - Already?

Good evening!

Welcome back to another edition of the Atlantic Hurricane Season's official start date of tomorrow, June 1st. Wow, the last 6 months of holidays and spring sure went fast.

The Pacific season, which starts mid May, already has had their first named system, TS Alvin. As he degrades on his northward trek, he will be bringing a lot of moisture to the desert southwest helping alleviate some drought stricken areas while causing some issues down the road later on.

Meanwhile, closer to home here in the Atlantic, the forecasts are for an above average season again. Time will tell though as it's a 6 month forecast and as stated back about 20 years ago, it only takes one. While nothing has formed in the GM or the Atlantic Basin in the month of May, (not unusual) be wary of months to come. Please get prepared if you haven't started already and do not wait until a named storm is on its way to your locale. Long lines, higher prices and shortness of time will be problematic if you wait till the last minute. Not to mention you might not get what you need which you should have purchased a month ago preparation wise.

Currently while the SST (sea surface temperatures) are warm enough to sustain a tropical system, the other factors say no way jose. There are hostile upper level winds wind shearing everything east of the Windwards and 1/8 of the Saharan Desert it seems is in the air over the whole Atlantic hurricane basin preventing practically any imminent or in the near future tropical development.

We all know what we are looking forward to. Let's be prepared and be safe starting off.

Dave

Friday, April 4, 2025 16:25PM PDT - Another active season?

Last year an extremely active season was forecasted, in the end we had 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes of which 5 were major hurricanes. Quite active, but not as extreme as feared. There were 2 category 5 hurricanes (Beryl and Mylton), something that doesn't happen that often. Beryl was by far the most unusual, for all the wrong reasons, very early in the season, formed far east in the Atlantic, went pretty far south, fast intensification, etc... Overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season was 162 (123 is 'normal'). Three names were retired, Beryl (no surprise), Helene and Milton. In 2030 they will be replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel.

This year might be a repeat... A few days ago the forecasters at Colorado State issued their first seasonal forecast. The team let by Phil Klotzbach anticipates 17 named storms (14.4 is normal), 9 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 4 might become major ones (3.2 is normal), with an overall ACE value of 155 (26% above average). The probability for at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean (a big area) is 56% (average is 47%).

The main reasons for the above normal season is the absence of El Nino conditions, above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic (though not as crazy warm as last year). One note about this early forecast, this early season forecast doesn't have much 'skill', so don't get too anxious about it. But as we all know, it only takes one..., but hopefully we won't have a big one like Beryl last year and that we have a lot of 'fish' storms. We all know that you can reduce your risk of harm by preparations. Now would be a good time to check your hurricane shutters or invest in hurricane proof glass, etc. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.