Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Gustav, Tropical Storm Hanna
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-12 Hurricane Sector - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (23:15 UTC, 36 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Friday, August 29, 2008 08:49AM PDT - Jamaica and Cayman
Good morning. Sorry, not much time to update. I have been pretty busy with keeping everything running smoothly behind the scenes and answering e-mail, etc. But finally it looks like Gustav passed Jamaica, although the tail-end looks pretty nasty on the satellite, so it's not over for them yet. The good news is that Gustav is still a tropical storm and that it is moving a bit faster. However, winds are now at 65 mph, close to hurricane strength, and 8 mph isn't that fast. Gustav is going towards the Cayman Islands. It is going a bit more north then earlier forecasted, the center should stay about 60 miles from Grand Cayman, good for them, but worse for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The center is supposed to pass only about 20 miles south of Little Cayman in 13 hours. Be aware of course that tropical storm winds will come much earlier then 13 hours, since the extend outward up to 100 kt (=115 miles) on the north western side (see this advisory). Traveling at 8 mph, this means that tropical storm winds precede the center of the storm by 115/8 = 14 hours, so that's now! Is that right? That's it for now, have to do other things, everybody stay safe! -Gert

Good evening!

Tropical storm Gustav continues to pound Jamaica with heavy rains and near-hurricane force winds while setting it's sights on the Caymans next. Most of the Caymanians (?) know how to prepare for tropical systems so I hope they are ready. From what I have heard so far, they are. After the assault on the Caymans, Gustav's future and where it will strike the Gulf of Mexico's coastline are up for conjecture. Many variables will play into Gustav's intensity and final landfall so no guard should be let down. As was Fay, not an easy storm to forecast so all bets are off at the moment.

Tropical storm Hanna doen't appear worthy of TS status right now as wind shear from the upper level low next to her has been like a lion, gnawing her outer shell to expose her center. Fay was way more impressive before she became a named storm but Hanna has maintained her low-level circulation and that's the difference. Looking more like a deformed moth embryo, Hanna has spread out. Her center is at 20.7N 60.1W but you really wouldn't know it by her previous satellite photo's unless you knew what to look for. Forecast to still move WNW and then pull an Andrew but here again, many variables play into her path down the road.

Eastern Caribbean, it's time to get serious folks! The line-up coming off the African continent is filled with evil intentions, starting with the one exiting now. Forecast models develop every one of these storms so, if you are still procrastinating about preparing, now's your final chance. I mentioned this first one previously and from what I've been following, many predict this to be a classic, powerful, Cape Verde storm. Play time is over.

Dave

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FURTHERMORE...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

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