Caribbean Hurricane Network - 2 0 2 6  Season -
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Saturday, August 8, 2026 20:00PM EDT - Inevitable

Good evening,

It has been a quiet, dusty, dry (as far as rain goes) and droughty period for the last few months as only the southern Windwards have received at least some beneficial rains while north of those have only received what I call nuisance showers. Puerto Rico has a water emergency on its hands but many of the resorts for tourists are not on the dry side. It's the populace.

The dynamic duo of Saharan Dust combined with a strengthening El Nino have combined to crush even the thought of tropical formation in this earliest part of the tropical season. Very dry air, even though the temperatures have been hot and humidity seems high, which it is not, combined with high wind shear has been at its suppressive best so far. A slight change over the next two weeks may be in the works though.

The low riders, sneaking in below the dust layer aka SAL, have started to ramp up operations. So have the waves marching across the African continent as if, safety in numbers with overwhelming force, can overcome the Atlantic obstacles ahead.

The vanguard wave has caught the eye of the NHC as a small possibility of development as it is below most of the dust but also below most of the effects of the seriously effective wind shear. This one is expected to follow its fine line low ride all the way through the lower Windwards. Might be something to watch after its passage through the Eastern Caribbean.

The one immediately behind it is forecast by models to go its own way and rise in the days ahead towards the eastern Leewards and eventually recurve to be a fish entity. I do not say storm as too early to predict but it would be very beneficial to at least get some decent, soaking, cistern filling rains out of it. Time will tell here but significant development is like vech and vech nachi, slim and none. Regardless, expected to recurve to the central Atlantic as a fish storm with a possibility of development once out of wind shear and dust belt range.

Another large wave is getting ready to fall off the African coast as that side is ramping up for an assault on the Atlantic Basin. Once the dust subsides in intensity, higher SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) have been known in recent years to counteract the effects of windshear thereby allowing tropical development despite said wind shears best efforts. There are quite a few waves in line and each one further assists, albeit marginally but growing in measure, to moisten the atmosphere with each progression across the Atlantic, paving the wave for their brethren waves following.

Meanwhile, in the short term, the GOMEX (aka GOA) and the east coast of the US, remain the only real possible hot spots. Homegrown was shared a few posts ago and we have already seen that manifested with Arthur and Bertha. The Gulf is ripe for the picking temperature wise with a quickly strengthening system leaving little time for prep, evacuation if necessary, and provisioning.

The east Pacific has three potential areas with evil intentions to the SE of the Hawaiian Islands while long lived, and slow moving Typhoon Dolphin, with Cat 2 equivalent wind speeds, is beating up on Okinawa before a Chinese mainland late night dinner interruption.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. Complacency is not a good thing.

Dave

Wednesday, August 5, 2026 10:25AM PDT - Hurricane Season Forecast

Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University issued their final forecast for the 2026 season. From their abstract: "We have maintained our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast for a well belownormal season. El Niño conditions are likely to continue to intensify over the next few months. We are extremely confident that we will have a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are slightly above their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving very high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean..

They conclude with these wise words: "As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.. Indeed, a well below average season doesn't mean that no hurricanes will form. They still predict 9 tropical storms (we had 2, so 7 more, 14.4 is normal), 4 hurricanes (we had 0 so far, 7.2 is normal) and 1 major hurricane (3.2 is normal). The probability for at least one major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean (a large area) is 17% (47% is normal). A relative small chance, but there's a chance... Stay safe and enjoy the quiet conditions for the time being, although I guess we could use some rain! -Gert

Tuesday, August 4, 2026 13:34PM PDT - The Sargassum Belt

The tropical weather outlook below states "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days", let's keep it that way. Indeed, it has been a very slow start of the season, thanks to our friend El Nino. So we can talk about other things! I saw this article on NASA's Earth Observatory titled Sizing Up the Sargassum Belt. It shows cool images (see one below) from the OCI sensor on the new PACE satellite of the distribution of Sargassum in the Atlantic, moving into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Sargassum is 'good' out in the ocean, providing habitat to many species, but we all know what it smells like when it ends up near-shore or on our beaches, not so good... Last year was a record year, this year it almost hit the same high value in June as in 2025, but the Sargassum Watch System indicates that it has already reached its peak with a lower value in July, which apparently is normal (down from 9.0 million metric ton in the Eastern Caribbean in June to 6.2 in July). Hoping for calm seas and clean beaches this year! -Gert

Great Sargassum Belt June 2026 [source: NASA Earth Observatory)

Sunday, July 26, 2026 12:31PM PDT - Hurricane Genevieve and Mexico

In addition to Hawai'i, I have now added locations in Mexico and USA West Coast to the Pacific version of the Closest Point of Approach-tool as well. Almost Category 4 Hurricane Genevieve is roaring 500 miles of the coast of Mexico. Luckily it looks like it will stay well offshore! Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Saturday, July 25, 2026 17:18PM PDT - Hurricane Fausto and Hawai'i

Just a quick update for the people threatened by Pacific Hurricane Fausto. I have just created a closest point of approach calculator the Hawaiian Islands. Main locations are prefilled, so it should be easy to use by most. If you would like another location added let me know. You can find it at: https://stormcarib.com/closest_pac1.htm. Looks like it is weakening and going just north of the islands. Hope it stays that way! Stay safe! -Gert

Tuesday, July 21, 2026 08:44AM PDT - Bertha

Tropical Depression 2 strengthened into Tropical Storm Bertha just south of the Florida Panhandle. It is not threatening the Caribbean in any way. This is a name a lot of us still remember from back in 1996, the first year I started covering storms. Back then Bertha was 'just' a Category 1, but it hit the year after the islands were still recovering from Luis and Marilyn.

Although sea surface temperatures are plenty warm, this storm is not expected to become a hurricane due to some wind shear and the relative close proximity to land. Although the advisories seem to be most worried about the storm surge, which is understandable since it is moving west towards Louisiana, I think that the main problem will be the rainfall. Bertha is moving at just 3 mph, and we all know how much rain that locally can bring... You can use the tools above to check how close the storm will get to you and at what time. I have listed coordinates of Gulf cities to make it easier for you. Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Sunday, July 19, 2026 07:17AM EDT - Dust and 91L

Good morning,

As Gert shared yesterday, slow so far is the name of the game at the moment, although we do have a home grown system in the GOMEX/GOA slowly striving to get its act together while giving the west coast of Florida some much needed, but not enough relief, from its ongoing drought.

91L is the only game on the Atlantic side and has taken a while to even manifest that designation after short lived and discombobulated TS Arthur drenched Texas in June, killed 4 people and caused about 1 Billion dollars in damages (credit Wikipedia), which goes to prove that even a mild TS can raise havoc, death and destruction. A major reason why preparation is the key and never take any tropical entity with a grain of salt.

Obviously, the longer 91L stays over the juicy heat content of the Gulf, the better chance of slow intensification rises. Heading more west than north will allow that to happen although strong wind shear will have a say. Still, we have seen wind shear effects overcome by above average heat content which is the fuel for these systems. While N to S orientation is evident at the moment, 91L is expected by many models to reach at least low to mid TS status before making land interaction along the northern gulf coast in spite of said wind shear. This being said, from west Florida to eastern Texas should be monitoring this potential development. Plus, whether it develops or not, the main effects are heavy, possibly flooding rains, some wind damage, and scattered power outages. The next name is Bertha, a familiar name to me from early season in July 1996. As a Cat 1 hurricane, she added misery to an already devastated USVI, particularly St. Thomas, as recovery efforts from Hurricane Marilyn slowly continued from September the year before.

The Caribbean and the Atlantic Basin remains in shut down mode which is good news as the dual draconian grips of strong wind shear and our old, annual friend, Saharan Dust, continue their suppression of anything even thinking about trying to survive the trek across the Atlantic. A few tropical waves are evident but devoid of most convection due to the above. The flip side of this interaction is the dearth of drought busting rainfall, with the exception of the lower Windward islands as in Trinidad/Tobago, Grenada, and St. Vincent/Grenadines who are managing to get the bulk of any moisture survival as these waves remain below the shear and the dust.

However, as we have said for years and continue to remind all, it does only take 1, regardless of how many are predicted and actually come to fruition.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant. We have 134 days left with the peak still a ways away. A lot can and has happened in this time period and yes, history does repeat itself.

Dave

Friday, July 17, 2026 15:53PM PDT - Slow so far!

It is July already, and we still only had just one named storm, and nothing really on the horizon! Last year we already had 3 tropical storms, and the year before, we all still remember monster storm Beryl hitting Grenada and St. Vincent and Grenadines around June 30. Hopefully it stays quiet, and if we believe the new updated forecast by Colorado State issued last week, it might be true. Klotzbach et al. further lowered the number of storms, with only 9 named storms (14.4 is normal), 4 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) and just 1 major hurricane (3.2 is normal). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is only 50 (123 is normal). The chance of at least one major hurricane traveling through the whole Caribbean (a big area) is only 19% (47% is normal).

The main reason for the well below-average numbers is the developing El Nino, which should be a very strong one at the peak of the season. In the Atlantic El Nino's increase vertical wind shear, which will suppress development of tropical storms. The opposite is actually happening in the Pacific, where the warmer sea surface temperatures and weakened trade winds increase activity. Indeed, the Pacific saw two super typhoons already... Even though the Atlantic season might be well below average, we still have to stay alert. Just one big storm hitting your island, or just a wet tropical storm stalling where you live, will spoil your whole season. So we still need to be prepared! Stay safe everybody! -Gert

Tuesday, June 16, 2026 14:36PM EDT - PTC 1 (Arthur?)

Good afternoon,

While this is the Caribbean Hurricane Network, other areas are influenced by our Caribbean weather anomalies. This includes our northern neighbor, the Gulf of Mexico aka the Gulf of America however you choose.

Almost on cue, a home grown system has manifested itself in and along the SW Texas coast,designated 90L, now aka Potential Tropical Cyclone, in a very favorable, moisture laden environment drawing that moisture up from the tropics plus the eastern Pacific. I had shared previously, the Gulf seemed to be ripe for the pickings this year as El Nino picks up in strength putting a welcomed anticipated damper on any Atlantic basin tropical shenanigans as the El Nino antics actually enhance Gulf activity from west to east while having a stifling effect on east to west Atlantic formations.

While overland, TD or TS formation is unlikely, but if the circulation does as expected, it will fall off the Texas coast into favorable Gulf conditions with a short lived chance at reaching TS status before plowing into the Texas Louisiana borderline. Diminishing back to low status before a possible rejuvenation as a TS off the coast of North Carolina or a bit further south. The other course, not out of the realm, is it never leaves its love of the overland and does not fully enter the GOMEX (aka GOA) and not form a closed circulation. Doesn't matter.

Rain, plus some storm surge to the north and east of the front of the system, will be the major effects. While not a drought buster, possible TS Arthur will bring copious amounts of rainfall to the SW and SE coast and inland of Texas, most of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and a dry western Florida Panhandle. Flash flooding is probable with isolated areas picking up over 12 inches. Isolated tornadoes are also a high probability. Down the road, Georgia, NC and SC should see beneficial rainfall as well as it makes its way to the Atlantic where rejuvenation is possible to TS status and even a short lived hurricane as it will be out of El Nino's reach that far north. Even southern Virginia may get a piece of this tropical action.That scenario is 3-4 days away and we all know a lot can happen in that time frame.

Regardless, turn around, don't drown and do not put others in harm's way because you made a bad/reckless decision. Intelligent and informed ones make all the difference.

Stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant.

Dave

Thursday, June 11, 2026 11:27AM PDT - Lower forest and El Nino is here!

Colorado State came out with their updated June forecast. In April they predicted a slightly below average season, now it is even lower. The expect 11 named storms (14.4 is normal), 5 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 2 might become Category 3 or up (3.2 is normal). The ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index) is only 70, well below the 123 average. The probability of a major hurricane tracking through the whole Caribbean (a large area) is only 25% (47% is normal).

Main reasons for the lower forecast is the 'official' arrival of El Nino as NOAA announced today (see news release). They see a 63% chance of above normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific 'El Nino' region of 2.0°C (3.6F). This would meet the criteria of a very strong El Nino. Another factor for the lower forecast is that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are for a change near or below average, instead of above average.

Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2020). The probabilities are basically half of normal! Full list, incl. US States can be found here. Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit.

In spite of the expected slow season and low probabilities we should not take our guard down. Just one storm in your backyard will spoil your whole season. In 2024 Grenada had only a 1% probability of seeing a major hurricane, and then came Beryl... So you still need to prepare, regardless of the forecast. But it is a good feeling that it might be a nice and boring season. -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Monday, June 1, 2026 07:31AM PDT - New season

We in the Caribbean know what day it is, official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The forecasts by NOAA, Colorado State and Tropical Storm Risk all point to a below normal hurricane season, with 8-14 tropical storms, of which 3-6 are forecasted to become hurricane, and 1-3 Category 3+ storms for NOAA, 13, 6 and 2, resp., for Colorado State and 11, 4 and 1 for Tropical Storm Risk. The average for 1991-2020 is 14.4, 7.4 and 3.2. Main reasons for the below normal activity are that although ocean temperature is expected to be above normal in the Atlantic, providing more energy for storm development, the upcoming super El Niño should more than cancel that out. El Niño's cause higher vertical wind shear which impedes development and strengthening.

Below the names and pronunciations of this year's players. The list is repeated every 6 years, but new names are introduced if the storm was very deadly or costly. There were 3 names from the record breaking 2020 season with 30 storms (!) retired, Laura, and the Greek letter-storms Eta and Iota. During this covid year, Laura went over the northern islands as a tropical storm and finally made landfall as a Category 4 storm in Lousiana. Back to back storms Eta and Iota both made landfall as a Category 4 along the Miskito Coast in Nicaragua. Covid for sure did not help with the recovery effort in Central America. Eta and Iota are not replaced, since the WMO are not using Greek letters anymore when we run out of names, but a separate list.

Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur       AR-thur             Leah         LEE-ah
Bertha       BUR-thuh            Marco        MAR-koe
Cristobal    krees-TOH-bahl      Nana         NA-na
Dolly        DAH-lee             Omar         OH-mar
Edouard      eh-DWARD            Paulette     pawl-LET
Fay          fay                 Rene         re-NAY
Gonzalo      gohn-SAH-loh        Sally        SAL-ee
Hanna        HAN-uh              Teddy        TEHD-ee
Isaias       ees-ah-EE-ahs       Vicky        VIH-kee
Josephine    JOH-seh-feen        Wilfred      WILL-fred
Kyle         KY-ull

Let's hope that it will be indeed a below normal season, but we all know, one big one hitting your island will spoil the whole season for you. Best to start preparations now, check your hurricane shutters if you have, emergency food/battery supplies, etc. You know the drill.

This is year 31 that we are covering the storms for you on the islands! I made the website all ready for the next season, which involves quite a lot of file moves, etc. The big change this year is that thanks to a generous donor from St.John, I decided to get rid of the Google Ads. They were ugly and didn't bring up that much money anyway. The only ad is for Gobeach Vacations, without them this website would never have existed. Donations are still needed of course, you can donate with credit card, PayPal, Venmo and Stripe. Stay safe everybody this season. Don't do stupid things! -Gert

Tuesday, May 26, 2026 09:48AM EDT - Upcoming 2026 Atlantic season

Good morning!

Hope all is well as can be with you.

It's that time of year already for the start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (June 1st). While storms can and have formed before June 1st, this is the official start date.

May 15th meanwhile, is the official start of the Eastern Pacific season which, due to the Super El Nino, is expected to be highly active as well as the Northern Pacific.

That same Super El Nino is expected to contribute to the decline in the number of storms in the Atlantic this coming season. Do not let that contribute to complacency on your part as it only takes one, no matter how many form. Steering currents, along with wind shear appearances will play a major role as will our annual Saharan Dust multi month invasion from the African continent.

Warmer than normal SST's have, at times, negated some of the effects of El Nino's so time will tell how this season will evolve. Regardless, it's time to get your preparations in order, check your remaining supplies and see what is out of date and/or missing and replace. Don't forget your pets as well as they are family too. Test your generator if you have one and plot an evacuation route in the event you have too. Do these things before anything approaches as you will have a lot on your mind if and when the time comes.

The Gulf of Mexico (or America if you wish), unfortunately looks ripe for the picking this season with the much warmer, deeper waters increasing the possibility of rapid intensification close to landfall.

Well that's it for the moment. Let's all pray and keep our fingers crossed again as we do every year.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant.

Dave

Tuesday, April 14, 2026 15:39PM PDT - Category 4 typhoon hits U.S. Northern Mariana Islands

Typhoon Sinlaku in the Pacific (luckily not Atlantic) barreled through the Northern Mariana islands, with the eye moving over Saipan and Tinian. On Monday it was still a Category 5, but luckily it weakened to a Category 4 storm yesterday. A more detailed discussion can be found on the Eye on the Storm-blog (Yale Climate Connections). I copied the scary picture below from that blog as well. Hopefully we won't see something like this in the Atlantic this year! But just a reminder of what could happen. -Gert

Saipan and Tinian caught in the eye [source: Eye on the Storm]

Thursday, April 9, 2026 09:43AM PDT - Below average hurricane season?

Today the first hurricane forecast for the 2026 season was published by Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University. They predict a slightly below average hurricane season with 13 named storms (14.4 is normal), 6 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 2 might become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, 3.2 is normal). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is estimated at 90 (123 is normal). This index measures the combined strength and duration of all storms in a season. The probability for at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean (a large area) is 35% (47% is normal).

The main suppressing factor playing this season is the development of a possibly super El Nino later this season (see for example this Eye on the Storm blog post by Henson and Masters, Yale Climate Connections). An El Nino usually suppresses hurricane formation due to stronger vertical wind shear and lower humidity in the atmosphere. The forecast could have been even lower if it wasn't for the above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic (although temperatures are a bit cooler in the eastern tropical Atlantic (closer to Africa) due to stronger than normal trade winds). In 2023 we had a similar battle between El Nino and high sea surface temperatures. Unfortunately climate change won that year. Hopefully this year El Nino will win out.

Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2020). Full list, incl. US States can be found here. Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit. Even though your probability is low, it doesn't mean you are out of the woods. Remember in 2024, Grenada had only 1% probability, but it did get hit that year with monster storm Beryl. So even if your chances are low, there is still a chance!

Tropical Storm Risk (EuroTempest) just came out with their forecast as well. That one looks even better. They expect a well below (40%) average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and just one major hurricane. They base it on the same factors, strong El Nino and near average sea surface temperatures. NOAA's forecast is expected late May. Also, please note that these early forecasts are not very reliable, so don't place too much trust in them.

Right now not much is going on. But we know storms will come each year. Now is a good time to get ready! Check your hurricane shutters, buy some extra canned food and water, etc. You know what to do, it is not your first time! Stay safe! -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.