Caribbean Hurricane Network - 2 0 2 6  Season -
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Weather discussions by Gert & Dave during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The homepage with the links to local reports from the islands, latest satellite image, current weather outlook can be found here.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026 14:36PM EDT - PTC 1 (Arthur?)

Good afternoon,

While this is the Caribbean Hurricane Network, other areas are influenced by our Caribbean weather anomalies. This includes our northern neighbor, the Gulf of Mexico aka the Gulf of America however you choose.

Almost on cue, a home grown system has manifested itself in and along the SW Texas coast,designated 90L, now aka Potential Tropical Cyclone, in a very favorable, moisture laden environment drawing that moisture up from the tropics plus the eastern Pacific. I had shared previously, the Gulf seemed to be ripe for the pickings this year as El Nino picks up in strength putting a welcomed anticipated damper on any Atlantic basin tropical shenanigans as the El Nino antics actually enhance Gulf activity from west to east while having a stifling effect on east to west Atlantic formations.

While overland, TD or TS formation is unlikely, but if the circulation does as expected, it will fall off the Texas coast into favorable Gulf conditions with a short lived chance at reaching TS status before plowing into the Texas Louisiana borderline. Diminishing back to low status before a possible rejuvenation as a TS off the coast of North Carolina or a bit further south. The other course, not out of the realm, is it never leaves its love of the overland and does not fully enter the GOMEX (aka GOA) and not form a closed circulation. Doesn't matter.

Rain, plus some storm surge to the north and east of the front of the system, will be the major effects. While not a drought buster, possible TS Arthur will bring copious amounts of rainfall to the SW and SE coast and inland of Texas, most of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and a dry western Florida Panhandle. Flash flooding is probable with isolated areas picking up over 12 inches. Isolated tornadoes are also a high probability. Down the road, Georgia, NC and SC should see beneficial rainfall as well as it makes its way to the Atlantic where rejuvenation is possible to TS status and even a short lived hurricane as it will be out of El Nino's reach that far north. Even southern Virginia may get a piece of this tropical action.That scenario is 3-4 days away and we all know a lot can happen in that time frame.

Regardless, turn around, don't drown and do not put others in harm's way because you made a bad/reckless decision. Intelligent and informed ones make all the difference.

Stay safe, prepared and ever vigilant.

Dave

Thursday, June 11, 2026 11:27AM PDT - Lower forest and El Nino is here!

Colorado State came out with their updated June forecast. In April they predicted a slightly below average season, now it is even lower. The expect 11 named storms (14.4 is normal), 5 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 2 might become Category 3 or up (3.2 is normal). The ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index) is only 70, well below the 123 average. The probability of a major hurricane tracking through the whole Caribbean (a large area) is only 25% (47% is normal).

Main reasons for the lower forecast is the 'official' arrival of El Nino as NOAA announced today (see news release). They see a 63% chance of above normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific 'El Nino' region of 2.0°C (3.6F). This would meet the criteria of a very strong El Nino. Another factor for the lower forecast is that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are for a change near or below average, instead of above average.

Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2020). The probabilities are basically half of normal! Full list, incl. US States can be found here. Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit.

In spite of the expected slow season and low probabilities we should not take our guard down. Just one storm in your backyard will spoil your whole season. In 2024 Grenada had only a 1% probability of seeing a major hurricane, and then came Beryl... So you still need to prepare, regardless of the forecast. But it is a good feeling that it might be a nice and boring season. -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Monday, June 1, 2026 07:31AM PDT - New season

We in the Caribbean know what day it is, official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The forecasts by NOAA, Colorado State and Tropical Storm Risk all point to a below normal hurricane season, with 8-14 tropical storms, of which 3-6 are forecasted to become hurricane, and 1-3 Category 3+ storms for NOAA, 13, 6 and 2, resp., for Colorado State and 11, 4 and 1 for Tropical Storm Risk. The average for 1991-2020 is 14.4, 7.4 and 3.2. Main reasons for the below normal activity are that although ocean temperature is expected to be above normal in the Atlantic, providing more energy for storm development, the upcoming super El Niño should more than cancel that out. El Niño's cause higher vertical wind shear which impedes development and strengthening.

Below the names and pronunciations of this year's players. The list is repeated every 6 years, but new names are introduced if the storm was very deadly or costly. There were 3 names from the record breaking 2020 season with 30 storms (!) retired, Laura, and the Greek letter-storms Eta and Iota. During this covid year, Laura went over the northern islands as a tropical storm and finally made landfall as a Category 4 storm in Lousiana. Back to back storms Eta and Iota both made landfall as a Category 4 along the Miskito Coast in Nicaragua. Covid for sure did not help with the recovery effort in Central America. Eta and Iota are not replaced, since the WMO are not using Greek letters anymore when we run out of names, but a separate list.

Name         Pronunciation       Name         Pronunciation
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Arthur       AR-thur             Leah         LEE-ah
Bertha       BUR-thuh            Marco        MAR-koe
Cristobal    krees-TOH-bahl      Nana         NA-na
Dolly        DAH-lee             Omar         OH-mar
Edouard      eh-DWARD            Paulette     pawl-LET
Fay          fay                 Rene         re-NAY
Gonzalo      gohn-SAH-loh        Sally        SAL-ee
Hanna        HAN-uh              Teddy        TEHD-ee
Isaias       ees-ah-EE-ahs       Vicky        VIH-kee
Josephine    JOH-seh-feen        Wilfred      WILL-fred
Kyle         KY-ull

Let's hope that it will be indeed a below normal season, but we all know, one big one hitting your island will spoil the whole season for you. Best to start preparations now, check your hurricane shutters if you have, emergency food/battery supplies, etc. You know the drill.

This is year 31 that we are covering the storms for you on the islands! I made the website all ready for the next season, which involves quite a lot of file moves, etc. The big change this year is that thanks to a generous donor from St.John, I decided to get rid of the Google Ads. They were ugly and didn't bring up that much money anyway. The only ad is for Gobeach Vacations, without them this website would never have existed. Donations are still needed of course, you can donate with credit card, PayPal, Venmo and Stripe. Stay safe everybody this season. Don't do stupid things! -Gert

Tuesday, May 26, 2026 09:48AM EDT - Upcoming 2026 Atlantic season

Good morning!

Hope all is well as can be with you.

It's that time of year already for the start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. (June 1st). While storms can and have formed before June 1st, this is the official start date.

May 15th meanwhile, is the official start of the Eastern Pacific season which, due to the Super El Nino, is expected to be highly active as well as the Northern Pacific.

That same Super El Nino is expected to contribute to the decline in the number of storms in the Atlantic this coming season. Do not let that contribute to complacency on your part as it only takes one, no matter how many form. Steering currents, along with wind shear appearances will play a major role as will our annual Saharan Dust multi month invasion from the African continent.

Warmer than normal SST's have, at times, negated some of the effects of El Nino's so time will tell how this season will evolve. Regardless, it's time to get your preparations in order, check your remaining supplies and see what is out of date and/or missing and replace. Don't forget your pets as well as they are family too. Test your generator if you have one and plot an evacuation route in the event you have too. Do these things before anything approaches as you will have a lot on your mind if and when the time comes.

The Gulf of Mexico (or America if you wish), unfortunately looks ripe for the picking this season with the much warmer, deeper waters increasing the possibility of rapid intensification close to landfall.

Well that's it for the moment. Let's all pray and keep our fingers crossed again as we do every year.

Stay safe, prepared and vigilant.

Dave

Tuesday, April 14, 2026 15:39PM PDT - Category 4 typhoon hits U.S. Northern Mariana Islands

Typhoon Sinlaku in the Pacific (luckily not Atlantic) barreled through the Northern Mariana islands, with the eye moving over Saipan and Tinian. On Monday it was still a Category 5, but luckily it weakened to a Category 4 storm yesterday. A more detailed discussion can be found on the Eye on the Storm-blog (Yale Climate Connections). I copied the scary picture below from that blog as well. Hopefully we won't see something like this in the Atlantic this year! But just a reminder of what could happen. -Gert

Saipan and Tinian caught in the eye [source: Eye on the Storm]

Thursday, April 9, 2026 09:43AM PDT - Below average hurricane season?

Today the first hurricane forecast for the 2026 season was published by Klotzbach et al. at Colorado State University. They predict a slightly below average hurricane season with 13 named storms (14.4 is normal), 6 hurricanes (7.2 is normal) of which 2 might become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, 3.2 is normal). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is estimated at 90 (123 is normal). This index measures the combined strength and duration of all storms in a season. The probability for at least one major hurricane traveling through the Caribbean (a large area) is 35% (47% is normal).

The main suppressing factor playing this season is the development of a possibly super El Nino later this season (see for example this Eye on the Storm blog post by Henson and Masters, Yale Climate Connections). An El Nino usually suppresses hurricane formation due to stronger vertical wind shear and lower humidity in the atmosphere. The forecast could have been even lower if it wasn't for the above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic (although temperatures are a bit cooler in the eastern tropical Atlantic (closer to Africa) due to stronger than normal trade winds). In 2023 we had a similar battle between El Nino and high sea surface temperatures. Unfortunately climate change won that year. Hopefully this year El Nino will win out.

Below I summarized the probability of at least one major hurricane moving within 50 miles for the Caribbean islands, compared to the long term average (1880-2020). Full list, incl. US States can be found here. Note that these probabilities are heavily biased by island/region area, for example the Bahamas, being a large region, will have a higher chance of a direct hit. Even though your probability is low, it doesn't mean you are out of the woods. Remember in 2024, Grenada had only 1% probability, but it did get hit that year with monster storm Beryl. So even if your chances are low, there is still a chance!

Tropical Storm Risk (EuroTempest) just came out with their forecast as well. That one looks even better. They expect a well below (40%) average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and just one major hurricane. They base it on the same factors, strong El Nino and near average sea surface temperatures. NOAA's forecast is expected late May. Also, please note that these early forecasts are not very reliable, so don't place too much trust in them.

Right now not much is going on. But we know storms will come each year. Now is a good time to get ready! Check your hurricane shutters, buy some extra canned food and water, etc. You know what to do, it is not your first time! Stay safe! -Gert

Probability of a major hurricane traveling within 50 miles

Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com).
Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI.