It's a rainy, cool, windy morning in St Maarten. And we are all in our homes trying to stay safe from COVID-19.

hi everyone

Here is  a picture I just took from my porch. The visibility today is outstanding. 

I can't always see Statia so clearly.

November 30th, the end of hurricane season. We can relax for a few months before it starts again. 
Today in St Maarten it is partly cloudy with not much wind and the visibility is excellent. I love this time of year in the Caribbean.

The attached image is Philipsburg, with 2 ships in port and Saba in the background. We can't always see our neighbor Saba but we can today. The image is a screenshot from
https://www.portstmaartenwebcam.com/

 

 

Good morning

Tropical storm Karen continues affecting us. it was a calm night but this morning out of nowhere there were gusty  winds and heavy rain. 

It's just cloudy now.

We are grateful it hasn't been worse, and hope that PR fared OK.

Our main town of Phillipsburg faces South. There is a boardwalk running along the beach lined with beach bars and restaurants.
It's quite  a mess there this morning due to the high waves.

There are tons of seaweed to clean up.

These pictures were taken this morning by a friend of mine.

 
 

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Good morning

The sun is shining and  people on St Maarten are getting back to normal.

Jerry caused us no problems except for high seas which did flood the boardwalk in Philipsburg.

Other than that, no rain and no wind.

Now I start watching once again the waves that are crossing the Atlantic.

But not today! I am taking a  day off from the weather.

Have a good weekend everyone

 
 

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St Maarten is hunkered down in anticipation of the arrival of Jerry.

Jerry  is expected to pass North of us tonight into tomorrow, but we expect heavy rains.

Businesses have closed down at 2:00 PM.

This link provides updated satellite imagery on the approach of Jerry.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=10L&product=ir

 
 

as per NHC 5 PM advisory:

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and
St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

The Stormcarib tool how close can it get shows this as of the present track:

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.5N, 62.3W or about 114.7 miles (184.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 51 hours and 56 minutes from now (Friday, September 20 at 9:30PM AST).

This is a useful little tool.
https://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

I am still more worried about the one behind it. 

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the

central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized

this morning.  Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the

Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical

depression.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the

satellite estimates.  The depression is forecast to move over

gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable

upper-level environment.  The only negative factor for

intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low

shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast

during the next several days.  The NHC forecast calls for the

depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain

hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in

good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial

motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt.  A strong deep-layer

ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression

generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the

next few days.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement

through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward

Islands in about 3 days.  By late in the period, the cyclone is

expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is

increasing spread among the guidance.  The global model ensemble

means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and

UKMET are along the left side.  The NHC track lies close the

consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest

ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the

progress of this system.

 
 

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From Crown Weather:

"Invest 97-L Located Halfway Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa (Near 45 West Longitude): An area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center, is located about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Satellite imagery indicates that Invest 97-L is becoming better organized with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity noted. In addition, a low pressure system has formed within the area of disturbed weather and that low pressure center is gradually becoming better defined.

Analysis of environmental conditions around Invest 97-L indicates that the environmental conditions will be favorable for development and strengthening throughout this week. This means that I think it’s likely that Invest 97-L will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm over the next 2 to 3 days or so.

Those of you in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should keep a close eye on the progress and development of Invest 97-L. At this point, I think it’s likely that this system will pass to the north of the Leeward Islands on Saturday, but it’s a good idea to keep an eye on this system just in case."

 
 

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this is an excerpt from Crowne Weather Service posted by Meteorologist Rob Lightbown.

His weather analyses for the Caribbean are pretty much spot on.

No one knows what these waves are going to do though so I am keeping close watch.

 

"Tropical Waves Between The Lesser Antilles & The Coast Of Africa: The area between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa is just a huge mess of westward tropical disturbances that all seem to be competing with each other.

The first tropical wave is located about 900 miles or so to the east of the Lesser Antilles very near 45 West Longitude. This tropical wave is moving at a quick forward speed and because of this, development is not expected anytime soon, if ever. This first tropical wave is likely to bring some gusty showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles on Monday.

A tropical disturbance that is located over the eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of 35 West Longitude is being watched closely for potential development in the coming days. This disturbance is likely to push westward and probably will become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm next week.

At this point, it looks possible that this tropical disturbance will be guided to the north of the Lesser Antilles by the “wake” left behind by Humberto. All of the model guidance forecast that this seems to be the most probable scenario. With that said, I am still gong to keep an eye on this tropical disturbance in case we see a further west track than what is being suggested right now."

 

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Good morning!

This is  a portion of my latest update from Rob Lightbown at Crown Weather.
Be careful Barbados, St Lucia, and Martinique.

 "I think that we are looking at Dorian either remain nearly the same in intensity or strengthen a little over the next couple of days. This means that I think that Dorian will move right across the island of Barbados as a 40-50 mph tropical storm on Monday night. The center of Dorian is then expected to move right over the islands of St. Lucia and Martinique as a 50 mph tropical storm during Tuesday morning.

Forecast Impacts: Tropical storm conditions, including wind gusts of up to 40-50 mph, locally heavy rainfall and rough seas, are possible on the island of Barbados on Monday night and then on the islands of St. Lucia and Martinique during Tuesday. Given the very small size of Dorian, the overall area that the storm will impact will be small."

 
 

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 47.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude
47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

 
 

Good Morning

NOAA recently announced that July was the hottest month on record globally.
https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/july-2019-officially-earth-s-hottest-month-record-ncna104267

Or St Maarten met office in the August 20119 newsletter stated that for us this July was the hottest July since 2009.
http://www.meteosxm.com/wp-content/uploads/August-Newsletter-2019.pdf

Clearly the world is heating up.

Thankfully it's been a quiet hurricane season so far.

But Crown Weather states: 
There are subtle signs in the data that suggest tropical development chances will probably be on the increase during the last week of this month. It appears that by the end of this month we will see the Africa tropical wave train drop southward towards the equator. This shift southward will lessen the amount of dust that pushes off of Africa and will also place these waves in a more conductive environment for development. The transition towards the equator of the wave train is about 3 weeks delayed this year, but it looks like it is about to happen quite soon. 

So stay alert, be prepared and check your local forecasts and your favorite weather sites.


 

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Good morning

It's another wet morning for St Maarten. After the 5 inches of rain accumulated from 95L the other day, I had another 1.5 inches in my rain gauge overnight from the tropical wave that is pushing through.

Currently it s raining lightly and thundering.

we are under a heavy rain advisory until mid day.

http://www.meteosxm.com/weather/forecast/

I think I can safely say the drought is over.

 

Currently skies are clearing a little. Maybe the worst is over?

What a deluge it has been this morning.

Early this morning before the rain started  I emptied my rain gauge. We had received 2 inches overnight. 
Then the heavens opened up once again this morning. Currently my rain gauge measure 3 inches more of rain.

There are reports of many roads flooded.

I received a video on my Whatsapp of boys  jet skiing on the streets of Marigot on the French side.

and I also received pictures of a landslide in Saba where a huge boulder crashed through the side of a house.

It's been a rough morning out there.

 
 

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Good morning

According to the latest satellite image on the page, it looks like 95L is right on us.

I can tell you that since morning we have had continuous thunder, lightning, and lots of rain. 

We need the rain, but not this much all at once.

There are reports of minor flooding all over the island.

There is minor flooding in my house too.

I have to go put some more towels down.

Have a nice day, everyone.

 
 

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Good morning from   St Maarten
It's been very hot and humid in St Maarten for the past few weeks. Everyone is complaining about the heat and worrying about what that will mean for us when we reach the height of hurricane season. St. Maarten is still recovering from Hurricane Irma and another storm would be  a hard blow for us.

But we will think positively.

I have attached a link to the July 2019 newsletter from our Met Office. 
http://www.meteosxm.com/wp-content/uploads/July-Newsletter-2019.pdf
There is some interesting information and data in it.

It does say:

"Total rainfall for the last 3 months was 99.3 mm, this amount was below the normal range (156-253 mm). There was only one day with heavy rainfall (>10mm) within that period. This has been the driest Apr-May-Jun. since 2016 (98.9mm)." 
  In spite of the low rainfall, our flamboyant trees are blooming beautifully all over the island. We have several in our neighborhood and in our yard.

I have attached some pictures.

Enjoy!

 
 

After a couple of months of absolutely no rain at all, St Maarten has finally started getting some showers.   The rain has not been very heavy but it's been enough to make the hills green again, and make it  feel more like living in  a steam bath, and, of course, bring out the mosquitoes.

Our garden is very happy and the plants we thought were probably  dying have suddenly blossomed.

Yesterday I took  a picture of our petrea, which is in full boom. it absolutely loves rain.

I never tire of these colours.

 
 

The St Maarten Met Office Newsletter for May has been released.

In summary it says:
"Most of the islands in the Caribbean have experienced low rainfall activity over the past six months to a year. Severe drought has developed and water rationing has begun in Antigua and St. Eustatius. Severe drought has also developed in Aruba, Barbados, Northern Guyana, Martinique and St. Kitts among others. The alert level for St. Maarten and the most of the Leeward Islands has been upgraded to Warning. A drought warning means drought is evolving therefore management plans should be implemented and water should be conserved and/or recycled. "

Click here for more of the newsletter.
http://www.meteosxm.com/wp-content/uploads/May-Newsletter-2019.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0HMktMRjBgxwm9Jnxg5DQZ2FD6gUbXzpWslxF8cFZYXXRaGEjQ7OEFArw

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Good Morning

St Maarten is dry, dry, dry. We need rain badly. 

The attached image shows climate information for March.

Rainfall was below average and so far April is looking like it will be the same.