Caribbean Hurricane Network
- Updates from the Islands -
Featured on this page:
| Isaac | Joyce | Keith | Leslie | Michael | Nadine |
Earlier 2000 storms can be found on a separate page.
The heart of the Caribbean Hurricane Network are the personal reports send in by the special hurricane correspondents on the islands. Find out what happened on your favority island during the 2000 Hurricane Season by following the links below.
|- - - Nadine - - -|
October 20, 2000 10:55EDT - Nadine
And the tropical depression has been upgraded to a tropical storm, named Nadine. There is, and will be no threat to land.
October 20, 2000 1:57EDT - TD#18
Just for the record. We have a new tropical depression out in the Atlantic. Located about 440 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. This is the 'good' side, since this system is also moving to the north-northeast, so away from Bermuda. It might strengthen into a tropical storm. But as long as your are not on a ship out there somewhere, no-one will really care.
|- - - Michael - - -|
October 19, 2000 1:55EDT - Bye, bye, Michael
Ship observations did indicate that Michael was a little stronger then estimated from satellite imagery. It's top winds were actually 100mph. Now it made 'landfall' in Newfoundland, just after it was taken up by a front and basically lost its tropical characteristics.
October 18, 2000 12:05EDT - It's a hurricane, but...
Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph. Minimal hurricane strength. This is probably how strong it will gets. The forecasts take Michael a little closer to Bermuda. Quick back on the envelope calculations reveal that the center of this storm will have its closest point of approach in about 18 hours at 230 miles from the island. Well without reach of tropical storm force winds. So far so good.
October 17, 2000 11:45EDT - Michael
You think the season is almost over, but no... Tropical Storm Michael formed somewhere between Florida and Bermuda. Now the center is located about 405 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Although this storm is looking quite impressive on satellite images it is not really forecasted to become a strong hurricane, before it has it's act together is should have moved over colder waters which would weaken this system considerably. As it looks right now, the storm will slowly move north-north eastward and should stay well clear of Bermuda and US coast. However, we should still monitor this storm, forecasts always change...
|- - - Leslie - - -|
October 5, 2000 11:10EDT - Leslie
The subtropical depression off Florida has gotten more tropical characteristics, and has therefore been upgraded to tropical storm Leslie. Right now it is located about 700 miles west of Bermuda. Not too much strengthening is forecasted. If things change for Bermuda then I will update again.
|- - - Keith - - -|
October 2, 2000 12:30EDT - Relief Efforts
On-line donations for Ambergris Caye are accepted at http://AmbergrisCaye.com/towncouncil/keith.html. Also, Jeff Gram (Jeff@aprivateisland.com) has initiated the San Pedro Cleanup. Contact him for info on how to donate. And of course, the Red Cross always needs more money for their relief effort.
October 2, 2000 23:05EDT - Tropical Storm Keith
The new advisory shows again that Keith has hardly moved. Not that it matters a lot, but Keith has been downgraded to a tropical storm. For the people in Belize and rest of the Yucatan this doesn't make a lot of difference. But at least there is less wind, but rainfall is still very heavy. Note that this website is more focussed on the Caribbean Islands. If you are desparate to hear about family or friends in Belize you can use the Pleas for Help bulletin board, however there is a much more informative Belize/Ambergris Caye bulletin board on the ambergriscaye.com website. I do have a couple of special hurricane correspondents in Belize and Mexico (incl. Cancun) who will send in updates whenever possible.
Keith is expected to finally move over the Yucatan Peninsula, and re-emerge in weakened form in the Gulf of Mexico.
October 2, 2000 11:05EDT - Move!!
Keith is still pounding Belize and the Yucatan with hurricane force winds. Despite its close proximity to land Keith hasn't weakened much. Max. sustained winds are still near 90mph. Also, the heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula are can cause flooding and mud slides.
When, oh when will it move? As long as the ridge in the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the storm remains where it is now, Keith will not move either. The forecast is that Keith will drift to the north north-west during the next 24 to 36 hours... However, models have been spitting this out for the last 2 days, and Keith is still sitting there!
October 1, 2000 11:55EDT - Oh no!
Great timing I have. Planning a little trip over the weekend! But I am back now! Keith is again a Category-3 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near 115mph! The worst thing is that it is sitting stationary just off the coast of Belize! This is a very bad situation. Not only the winds but also this hurricane will continue to cause heavy downpours in the same area, which can cause life-threathening flash-floods and mud slides. Let's not forget that most fatalities from hurricanes are in connection these torrential rains. Also, a potential very dangerous situation has formed in the Bay of Chetumal, which is located in the northern part of Belize, bordering Mexico, as the Public Adivisory of the National Hurricane Center notes:
NOTE...IN ADDITION TO THE STORM SURGE FLOODING...RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE BAY OF CHETUMAL AND PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY IN THE EYE OF HURRICANE KEITH. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY WATER CAN RAPIDLY RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN VERY SHORT NOTICE. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BAY OF CHETUMAL SHOULD REMAIN INSIDE AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS AT ALL TIMES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY SITUATION SO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTION NOW TO SAVE YOUR LIFE...SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.Keith should move inland over the next ?? hours. Thereby losing much of its strength. However, the rains will continue to pose a major problem. I am trying to get reports from Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, these will be posted on this website (see above). Also, your plea for help can now be posted on the bulletin-board. If you know something, please, share it with us!
September 29, 2000 18:10EDT - Tropical Storm Keith
An air-force plane flew in to Tropical Depression 15 and found that winds were tropical storm strength and therefore this system has been upgraded to tropical storm Keith. It is drifting northwest. It is expected to travel in between the Yucatan Peninsula (near Cancun) and Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico in about 3 days. Maximum winds at that time might be as high as 85mph, a minimal hurricane. Winds don't really seem to be the problem, more the rain associated with this system. Esp. for Honduras (we really don't want to go through something liek Mitch in 1998.)
September 28, 2000 20:30EDT - Number Fifteen
A new tropical depression has formed in the northwestern Caribbean near the northeastern tip of Honduras. Slow strengthening is forecasted, it is expected to reach tropical storm strength, and migh be a hurricane in three days. At the moment it is not threathening any land. More later.
|- - - Joyce - - -|
October 2, 2000 12:45EDT - Gone!
Satellite images, hurricane hunters and surface observations all indicate that the closed circulation of 'Joyce' is gone. So now this is nothing else then a tropical wave. Unless regeneration occurs this is goodbye to Joyce.
October 1, 2000 11:55EDT - Tropical Depression
Sorry, I was on a little trip this weekend. Great timing I had with Joyce and worse Keith! I should try to plan better. When I went to the Caribbean back in August I was in the middle of Debbie, before Keith, the worst storm of this year. In any case, as you could have read from the reports send in by my special hurricane correspondents, everything went pretty good. It could have been a lot worse! Great job, correspondents! Right now Joyce is just a tropical depression, so I won't go in depth to discuss this storm, since I will have to put some more time in the analyses and preparing this website for (the aftermath) of Keith.
September 30, 2000 12:15EDT - Far south!
Remember, a couple of days ago that I wrote here that some models predicted that Joyce might turn northward before reaching the islands, thereby totally bypassing it? Now the latest forecast is way south. It will probably even keep a safe distance of Barbados. It is projected that Joyce will go over Tobago! An island even further south than Barbados, St.Vincent, etc.!
The good thing is that Joyce looks still very disorganized. This is by no means a destructive hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are down to just 40mph, borderline tropical storm/tropical depression status! Joyce is moving forward a little faster, west near 18mph. Within 24 hours it is expected to be over Tobago. However, it might very well be that Joyce will go south of Tobago as well, and pass closer to Trinidad. This because it seems that Joyce refuses to go north, and Tobago is latitudinal wise north of the storm, while Trinidad is due west. We will see. I don't expect the winds to be the major problem. The rains associated with this tropical system might cause more headaches, but nothing disastrous. Really happy about the fact that Joyce has weakened so much over the last day! It could have been a lot different.
September 30, 2000 0:15EDT - 50mph!
Joyce is behaving nicely. It futher weakened to just 50mph! Joyce is still moving due west. Again the forecasted track has shifted a little south. Right now the official NHC forecast takes the center of Joyce south, instead of north of Barbados. It is expected to be there within 36 hours. From there on it might move over St.Lucia. Very unusual to have a storm this far south.
September 29, 2000 16:50EDT - Further weakening!
Who knows, maybe Joyce falls apart even before it is reaching the Caribbean Islands! Joyce looks even less healthy than this morning. Maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be 60 mph, with tropical storm force winds extending up to 85 miles from the center. It is still moving west, no northward component yet. The official NHC forecast predicts that Joyce will move over the southside of Martinique, with maximum sustained winds near 85mph, or a minimal hurricane. Tropical Storm Joyce is expected to be just north of Barbados in about 48 hours. So although it looks inevitable that Joyce passes through the islands, it won't be that bad as it looks right now!
September 29, 2000 14:05EDT - GFDL
I just processed the latest results of the GFDL forecast model. Interesting is that it doesn't show that strong northwesternly track anymore. This model, which had all the time the most northward forecasted track, now shows that the center of Joyce will go over Dominica in about 88 hours, traveling well south of the USVI/BVI and even Puerto Rico (although that is still a long way). Still the different forecast models don't agree with each other very well. The track of this storm is very hard to predict, but the tendency is now for a less northwestward track then earlier. It seems very unlikely now that the storm will miss the islands.
September 29, 2000 10:55EDT - Tropical Storm Joyce!
It's getting stranger, but better. Joyce isn't what it used to be. It appears very disorganized on the latest satellite images. This is quite unexpexted since atmospheric conditions do not show a shearing environment which could cause the weakening. In any case, maximum estimated winds (yes, estimated, no hurricane hunter plane has actually flown into the storm to actually measure windspeed, pressure, etc.) are down to just 70mph. Which means that Joyce is not a hurricane anymore, but a tropical storm.
Will it strengthen again? The experts at the National Hurricane Center think it will, though not near the Category 3 status I was talking about yesterday. The official forecast call for 90mph in three days, or a 'minimal' hurricane (Cat-1). But please, don't take these intensity forecast to literally. Here it shows again that it is even harder to predict how strong a storm will get than it's path.
The next big question..., where will it go? Right now Joyce is going due west, not west-sout-west. The different forecast models show very different results. It mostly depends on how the mid-level ridge to the north of Joyce will steer Joyce. Some models show a more westernly track, others more northwesternly. The official NHC forecast has the center of Joyce at 15.0N, 60.5W in 3 days. This is just east of Martinique/Dominica. But right now it can still be everywhere unfortunatly. The good thing is that it doesn't seem to become a major hurricane.
September 28, 2000 20:00EDT - West-south-west...
Before it reaches any land, this has already become a pretty unusual storm. Normally these Cape Verde storms go pretty much west-north-west or north-west. This one keeps on going west or even (like for the last 12 hours) west-south-west! It seems now almost inevitable that it can take the turn north quickly enough that it will bypass the islands. Currently Joyce's center is at 11.1N, 45.8W or about (something you don't hear often) east-south-east of the Windward Islands as the National Hurricane Center reports say. 11.1N is actually about the same latitude as Tobago, and with Trinidad even more south, I would say it's basically east of the Windward Islands. Regardless, this storm is in the wrong spot. wunderground.com feature these neat climatology maps, of 'similar' storms in the past. It clearly shows that no Cat-1 or Cat-2 hurricane has been this far south.
So where will it make landfall...? The official 3-day forecast predicts that Joyce will be just east (70 miles) of Barbados in 3 days. At that time max. sustained winds are expected to be near 110 mph, or a borderline Category 3 hurricane... However, hurricane winds extend only to up to 30 miles from the center. Extrapolating from there, I expect it to move just north of Barbados towards Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe. Or if it bends a little more north, Antigua, St.Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, St.Maarten/St.Martin, etc. It is really hard to predict so far ahead where it will go. A tad to the north or south and it will visit a different island. The good thing is that it is a small hurricane. Hurricane force winds are concentrated in a small area. A direct hit will be pretty bad (esp. if it is a Cat-3), but 50 miles away from the center will be ok... So again, let's wait and see what the advisories tomorrow say.
September 28, 2000 11:05EDT - A little weaker...
Due to some unexpected shear, maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph, a little bit down from the 90 mph it was estimated earlier. It is not expected though that Joyce will continue to weaken. But some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. It is still a big question mark what this thing will do when it gets closer to the islands. The longer it stays on its westward track (or even a bit south of due west) the more unlikely it will be that it will miss the islands all together. Let's see what the 5PM advisories say.
September 27, 2000 17:00EDT - Hurricane Joyce
Not much news to bring. Joyce was upgraded to a hurricane this morning. Maximum sustained winds are according to the 5PM advisories near 85 mph. Joyce's center is located at 12.6N, 40.7W, or about 1270 miles east of the islands. The 3-day forecast still shows a mostly westward track for the next 72 hours. At the end of the forecast period Joyce is expected to be near 13.0N, 53.0W, so Joyce went just 0.4 degrees north, while traveling 12.3 degrees west. This is at about the same latitude as Barbados, but still about 440 miles east of it (or, at its current forward speed of 14mph, about 31 hours). At that time Joyce is expected to have strengthened to a strong category-2 hurricane, with winds near 110mph. Please, keep in mind that these long-range forecasts are subject to large errors.
Although it seems that Joyce is heading straight towards Barbados, the more northern islands need to keep a close eye on this one as well. Some of the models do predict that Joyce will make a swing to the north after 3 days. The 126 hour run of the GFDL model shows that Joyce might even pass just north of the NE Islands. Normally the truth lies somewhere in between. I hope that it will turn northward enough before it reaches the islands, but I am not too confident. These 126 hour model runs have of course even larger errors then the 72 hour runs. We'll just have to wait and see what's going to happen. Right now it can make landfall anywhere from Barbados all the way up. Let's just hope that it doesn't get any stronger then a Category-2 hurricane, something the islands can handle, if prepared well, without too many problems. FYI, the 126 hour GFDL model run can now be found at the QHWRN.
September 26, 2000 17:00EDT - All hope is not lost!
Though Joyce is still traveling due west and the official 3 day NHC forecast show that it will continue to go due west over the next three days, there is a glimmer of hope. Usually on my model-output plots (which can be found at the QHWRN) I don't show model predictions past 72 hours (3 days), due to its high uncertainty. These 3 day model runs all show that Joyce will continue to go due west. However, one of the models, GFDL, shows that after 72 hours it will make a turn towards the north. And it looks from that that Joyce might still go north of the islands! See this image, purple line, runs through hour 126. So we'll see if it really makes landfall!
September 26, 2000 12:05EDT - Still far south...
The center of Joyce is currently located at 11.7N, 34.9W. Really far south, but also still pretty far out in the Atlantic. The most northeasternly islands are located around 18N, 63W and we hope that this system will pass north of this point. So far, and the 3 day forecast indicate that this won't happen, some models even show that Joyce will move a little south of due west! In 72 hours, then hurricane Joyce, is expected to be at 12.0N, 47.0W, or about 850 miles east of Barbados (13.1N, 59.5W). At it's current speed it will be there in about 4.5 days. So as it looks right now, a hit somewhere seems inevitable. Where is still a big question mark. Also, it is still very difficult to say how strong Joyce will be in 4 days. In 3 days models show Joyce to be just a Cat-1 hurricane, with max. winds near 80 mph. But even this number is very unreliable since intensity forecasts are even harder to make than where it is going. It might weaken, it might strengthen. Water temperatures are conducive to strengthening, but how the atmospheric conditions will be still hard to predict. But we have enough time, we shouldn't get too worried yet...
September 26, 2000 0:30EDT - Joyce
And all of a sudden do we have this tropical storm out there, going straight for the islands... Now tropical storm Joyce is located at 11.7N, 32.6W. Still way out there, but also pretty far south. And worse, it's three day forecast is not showing a real northward component... Rigth now it seems almost inevitable that it will pass through the islands. When? Still a couple of days away. As what? That might be the only positive thing I am seeing tonight. In 3 days it might be a minimal hurricane. Something like Debby earlier this year. So this season is not over yet... Let's keep a close eye on this one, and hope that it will not strengthen too much.
Meteorologically, this is an interesting storm. Joyce is located very close to Isaac. It will be quite hard to predict how these two will either complement or distract each other. A hurricane usually needs space (good outflow) to strengthen. Also, Isaac might drag Joyce more northward, or push it more to the south... The reason why Joyce is not expected to strengthen too much is because of the possible shearing by the outflow of Isaac. But who knows, this is a quite unusual situation.
September 25, 2000 17:10EDT - TD 14
The tropical wave southeast of Isaac has become better organized and has been upgraded by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center to Tropical Depression Fourteen. Although it is just behind Isaac there is not much interaction expected between the two. Right now it looks pretty sure that Isaac will pass north of the islands (see below), this storm however, might take a more westernly path... It is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so. If it will be a major hurricane like Isaac at some point in the future is still unsure. As we saw with Isaac, these things can strengthen a lot in a short time. We just have to wait and see, this depression is still far out in the Atlantic.
|- - - Isaac - - -|
September 28, 2000 20:20EDT - A Cat-4!
Sorry, I haven't paid much attention to Isaac lately in my discussion. Mainly because of Joyce and because of the fact that Isaac is and will be not threat to land. Noteworthy however is that Isaac is now a Category 4 hurricane, with 140 mph winds! All models pretty well agree that Isaac will pass within safe distance from Bermuda.
September 26, 2000 12:05EDT - Just a Cat-1
Two days ago Isaac was a major (Category-3) hurricane, now Isaac has weakened to a Cat-1 with max. sustained winds near 90 mph, due to increased shear. It might get stronger again later when it travels over warmer waters. In any case, as it looks right now, not only will it stay clear of the Leeward Islands but also pass east of Bermuda!
September 25, 2000 17:20EDT - Going north...
Isaac has weakened a little, but is still a very powerful hurricane with max. sustained winds near 105mph. Right now it is located at 17.8N, 41.5W. So it looks like it will stay well north of the islands! Isaac is already at 17.8N but still about 1300 miles east of the islands. The northeastern most islands are at about 18N, 63W. So we should be ok! It is also expected that Isaac will make a swing towards the right before it reaches Bermuda, but that is still a lille early to tell. But for now, things look pretty good with Isaac!
September 24, 2000 02:05EDT - Wow!
Despite the fact that Isaac is over an area where sea surface temperatures are marginal for much strengthening, this little system has now been classified by the National Hurricane Center as a major hurricane with max. sustained winds near 120 mph, a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The second major hurricane this season (our good friend Alberto, who didn't want to give up earlier this season was the first). Although the outflow looks really good, and while it has a 'clear' eye from time to time, I think that it might be overestimated a little bit. We won't know the real winds until our brave Hurricane Hunters fly in the storm. Regardless, it should be regarded as a strong, though small areawise, hurricane.
Isaac is still 'way' out there. Currently at 15.0N, 35.4W or about 1720 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It is moving forward at about 10 miles per hour. On that pace it will take 172 hous (almost a week!) before it reaches the islands. The good thing is that Isaac is moving a little north of due west. Even better, the official 3 day forecast brings Isaac at about 17.5N, 44.5W. This means that it looks very likely at this point that Isaac will pass well north of the islands! So despite the fact that this is a major hurricane, traveling towards the islands, we should be ok this time... In any case, it's still a long way to go. But it looks pretty good, I guess the praying, dancing and crossing helped...
September 21, 2000 23:10EDT - Isaac
And the tropical depression has been upgraded to a tropical storm. The ninth of the season. For the rest not much new with this system. Let's keep a close eye on the Cape Verde system and pray, dance, cross your fingers or do whatever you think might help turning this thing more northwest...
September 21, 2000 12:05EDT - Our first Cape Verde...?
Tropical Depression Number Thirteen formed "way" out in the Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands. Although the system is expected to strengthen just slowly (it might be a hurricane in three days), storms forming this far east have the potential to be very dangerous. The models show that this system is expected to move just north of due west. Right now the center is located at 11.7N, 23.7W, in three days (although highly uncertain) at 14.5N, 38.5W. Extrapolating this to the islands, if it is doing 3 degrees north while going 15 degrees west, the center of this then hurricane might pass through 19N, 60W. Since the northeastern islands are at around 18N, 63W, it will be pretty close. But of course, it is still way to early to make these kind of extrapolations. In any case, we will have to follow the progress of this depression closely. Hopefully #13 is not our unlucky number...
|- - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - -|
Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges is proof! If interested, contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
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