We find this system TROPICAL DEPRESSION #7 ( to be name FIONA if it is named! ) VERY CLOSE TO US here in Antigua and Barbuda very quickly……… with some rain to possibly come tonight ( a welcome thing) but it is too early to know the effects … and what strength the winds will be.
STORM CARIB IS SHOWING CLOSEST POINT IS 8.9 miles FROM ANTIGUA off our north on SEP 17th (SATURDAY) at 2 a.m !! OF COURSE WE know this can change as weather is weather !!!
below this Statement just sent out from our met office..
I am on stand by to put up hurricane shutters if needed but not implementing the plan yet ! But as i am located high on a hill on the ATLANTIC side ( 212 feet) i always err on the side of caution.
I am always happy to know THE HURRICANE HUNTERS are flying the system as that will give us the most accurate information ( more than the satellite ) as they fly INTO THE SYSTEM ( been there done that with them !! so first hand knowledge) The Hurricane Hunters PLAN OF THE DAY is posted below . They will fly the system at 1730 ZULU TOMORROW SEP 15th ( which is 1:30 pm Antigua time ) with repeat flights as shown below and this will show the “REAL DEAL” of what is going on weather wise”.
WE need to all be prepared as it is the HEIGHT of HURRICANE season in the tropics! LETS HOPE this one is NOT HURRICANE FIONA!!
Will keep you posted From our Antigua paradise ….
WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:30 AM ECT WED 14 SEP 2022
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AND CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE AREA...
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN OUR MONITORED
AREA OF CONCERN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.
IT IS A BIT TO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY.
HOWEVER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED
IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-
THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO
IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE ISLANDS BEING AFFECTED BY
STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING FROM POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS A BIT EARLY TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE
AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH SIMILAR TO EARL.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME; BUT WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO
IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS, IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. THE THREAT IS MINOR, AT THIS TIME,
BUT IT COULD INCREASE TO MODERATE/MEDIUM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 6 PM ECT 2200 UTC THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
FORECASTER
DALE DESTIN/LETITIA HUMPHREYS
000
NOUS42 KNHC 141600
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT WED 14 SEPTEMBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-111
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 15/1730Z A. 16/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0107A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 15/1415Z C. 16/0245Z
D. 16.9N 55.5W D. 17.0N 58.0W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2030Z E. 16/0500Z TO 16/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX G. FIX
FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 73
A. 16/1200Z A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA2 0307A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0407A CYCLONE
C. 16/0800Z C. 16/0900Z
D. 17.0N 59.3W D. 17.0N 59.2W
E. 16/0930Z TO 16/1400Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION FOR 17/1200Z,
DEPARTING TNCA AT 17/0800Z.
3. REMARK: THE NASA 817 DC-8 WILL BE FLYING AN 8-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AT ALTITUDES OF
25,000 TO 38,000 FT, DEPARTING GVAC AT 15/1200Z.
