Dorian Officially Becomes Category 1 Hurricane

as it Descends on St Thomas

Calm Descends on Puerto Rico Whilst Awaiting Dorian

As Hurricane Dorian descends on St Thomas, the National Hurricane Centre has officially upgraded the storm to a Category 1 Hurricane.

All of Puerto Rico is now under both a Hurricane Watch as well as a Flash Flood Warning, with between 4-6 inches of rain anticipated in the coming hours, and up to ten possible in some areas.  

Currently the pressure of Dorian as it passes over St Thomas is 997 mb; whilst in San Juan the barometer has been steadily dropping since 1200 hours, and now stands at 1,009 as Dorian comes ever closer.

Calm has now descended on much of the San Juan metropolitan area since around 1300 hours as most businesses are now closed and boarded, including the majority of grocery stores, who have sent their employees home.  

Along the beaches in Condado and Ocean Park, between 1200 and 1300 hours, a hardy group of around 100 people gathered to play in the surf, walk dogs, play volleyball, and watch the approaching storm. The darkness of the approaching clouds contrasted nicely with the azure blue of the waves, which even then were not so large as to prevent swimming and even paragliding.  Then, around 1300 hours, as if a switch had been pulled, the clouds began to break and the wind rose up, sending all but the hardiest of souls back to their cars and homes.  

Since that time, the wind and rain have subsided somewhat, and an eerie calm, similar to other cyclones experienced while posted in the Pacific, including Super Typhoon Yutu (Saipan, 2018), and Tropical Cyclone Winston (Fiji, 2016), pervades.  The streets are largely empty, and most people appear to be hunkered down at home awaiting the actual arrival of Dorian late this afternoon, and early into the evening. 

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Puerto Rico Prepares as Dorian Approaches for the Southeast

Change in Storm Path as it Crosses Island Prompts New Concern in San Juan

Puerto Rico remains under a hurricane watch as of Wednesday morning.  

As of this posting, the San Juan area is experiencing partly cloudy conditions with the occasional passing band of rain as the barometric pressure dropping steadily, currently registering as 1010.3 hPa. 

Dorian continues to move NW on a heading of 310 degrees at 20 k/ph, with the latest report showing the storm positioned 95 km SE of St Croix, with sustained winds of 95 k/ph.  

Most of the island anticipates the arrival of the rain and winds beginning around 1400 hours today, strengthening from there as Dorian makes a direct pas through the Central NE side of the island.  This is a forecast change, as Tuesday’s reports showed the storm passing across the SW corner of the island avoiding largely populated areas.

The forecasted path change will bring Dorian within 14.5 km of San Juan at approximately 2148 hours today (W/28AUG2019). With a metropolitan population of 2.3 million, San Juan represents a significant target for Dorian, and both government and the general population have showed a renewed level of concern for the approaching storm today.  Local stores remain confident that supplies will be sufficient, although shelves in many larger outlets are beginning to show signs of depletion; and most stores continue to restrict the number of flats of water a single customer can purchase to two.  Shoppers, who were generally calm on Monday and Tuesday, including tourists, are beginning to show signs of stress and irritation as they jockey for supplies.  

Of greatest concern to most residents and tourists is the fear of loss of water or electricity.  As has been mentioned before, the water supply and electrical grid for much of Puerto Rico was severely damaged during CAT5 Hurricane Maria in 2017, and in many ways, has never fully recovered.  As such, the fear is that not only will there be a loss of power and water, but that such will further weaken the grid going forward from Dorian.  

Attached, please find the latest weather radar for Puerto Rico.

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Puerto Rico Placed Under Hurricane Watch with Approach of TS Dorian

As Puerto Rico prepares for the arrival of Tropical Storm Dorian on Wednesday, as of Tuesday night, all seems business as usual in the tourist areas of Condado and Isla Verde in San Juan, where restaurants, bars, and other nightlife remain open.

Despite many hotels providing information on how to safely prepare for the approaching storm, most tourists spoken to express little concern over the approaching storm, stating that they are going to enjoy their time in Puerto Rico before returning to the States, Spain, or Canada to return to work or school regardless of the storm. 

Further from the tourist areas, locals express a moderate sense of urgency, which is marked by increasing crowds and thinning shelves in grocery stores.  Still, a sense of calm remains the order of the day, as people go about their business of purchasing water, canned goods, batteries, candles, and other supplies.  And even though lines are growing increasingly longer, people continue to remain calm and friendly with each other.  

Store employees continue to state that supplies are holding, and there is little fear of the widespread shortages that befell the islands following Hurricane Maria in 2017. 

Inland, at the islands largest mall, Plaza Las Americas in San Juan, crowds were noticeably smaller than usual for a weeknight, when the mall is generally crowded with individuals and families.   

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Puerto Rico has been placed under a Tropical Storm Watch.  

As TS Dorian continues to make its way into the West Indies, Puerto Rico has begun to make preparations for what is anticipated to be a CAT1 storm by the time it arrives in Puerto Rican waters mid-week.

The earliest forecasted arrival time for Puerto Rico is T/27AUG2019 at 2000 hours.  The most likely time of arrival is W/28AUG2019 at 0800.  

Rainfall of 2-4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico; although this may change.  At this time, TS Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph as it moves WNW at 14 mph.

It is anticipated that Dorian will be a near-miss for the island, with the closest points of approach as follows:

> San Juan (north central): 160 km (99.9 miles) on W/28AUG2019 at 0706

> Ponce (south central): 81.4 km (50.6 miles) on W/28AUG2019 at 1954

> Mayaguez (west central):  64.6km (40.2 miles) on W/28AUG2019 at 1054

> Fajardo (east central): 174.5 km (109 miles) on W/28AUG2019 at 1624

Considering that Dorian is anticipated to be both a near miss, as well as a CAT1 storm, this is welcome news for the Commonwealth which is still recovering from Hurricane Maria in 2017; as well as the recent political and constitutional crisis following the forced resignation of the governor in August, in part over allegations of corruption stemming from recovery efforts. 

Stay safe!