The Caribbean Hurricane Page Updates from the Islands - 1999 Season -

What is going on now?

Archive of weather discussions and eye witness reports from the Caribbean Islands in the 1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Featured on this page: Floyd, Gert, Harvey and Irene. Other 1999 storms can be found on another page. For current events look here.

Local updates from the Cayman Islands by our special hurricane correspondents available

[Wed, 13 October 1999 12:20 EDT] - Irene
The season is not over yet... The area of disturbed weather in the western Caribean Sea has become much better organized and is now upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene. The center of this storm is located 160 miles west southwest of Grand Cayman and about 330 miles south southwest of Havana, Cuba. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane watch has been issued for parts of Cuba.
The storm is moving towards the north northwest, so more or less away from the Cayman Islands. The center is expected to pass by the western tip of Cuba in about 36 hours with 55 mph winds. Cayman will probably experience some gusty winds, but nothing major. Cuba has to play close attention to this storm since with the high sea surface temperatures strengthening can be faster than forecasted.

[Wed, 22 September 1999 9:00 EDT] - Just rain...
Last night Tropical Storm watches were already discontinued. Harvey was taken up by a trough, losing it's tropical characteristics. Just some gusty winds and rain when the front moved through were probably the effects on the Bahamas. Imagine if they had to go through another big storm again...

[Tue, 21 September 1999 8:40 EDT] - TS warning for Bahamas!
And here I thought Harvey would be a non-issue for the islands. I wasn't paying too much attention to this storm, until it took an unexpected southern turn and tropical storm watches were posted for, guess what, Grand Bahama and Abaco Is.! As a matter of fact, the center of the storm might pass pretty close off Grand Bahama in about 30 hours. While Harvey is moving toward the east southeast it is expected to make a turn towards the northeast. This is not a Floyd, but with many people still with damaged roofs the rain will be an unwelcome surprise. One plus I could think of is that the rain will wash away the salt, making it easier for the vegetation to recover...

[Mon, 20 September 1999 8:50 EDT] - Harvey
A new tropical storm formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Since it does not threaten any of the Caribbean Islands it is not covered on the Caribbean Hurricane Page (plus I am still dealing with Floyd).

Local updates by our special hurricane correspondents on Bermuda (32.4N, 64.7W) available

[Wed, 22 September 1999 8:55 EDT] - Bermuda's OK
The center of Gert passed more the east than earlier expected. The island didn't experience hurricane force winds, though some gusts were hurricane strength. Read how the island fared in the special reports from the local hurricane correspondents. See also Bermuda's newspaper The Royal Gazette.

[Tue, 21 September 1999 10:35 EDT] - 135 miles
The 11PM position: 31.7N, 62.5W, or about 135 miles east southeast of Bermuda. A little more to the east again! Gert is now near its closest point of approach. Max. sustained winds are near 110 mph. Hurricane force winds extend to up to 105 miles to the northwest of the center, just without reach of Bermuda! The northwestern side is the strongest part of Gert Bermuda will see. Hurricane force winds extend to 'only' near 60 miles to the southwest. Bermuda will feel 60 mph winds though with higher gusts.

[Tue, 21 September 1999 8:00 EDT] - Better news
Gert's center is located at 31.1N, 62.6W. Three hours ago it's location was 30.5N, 62.8W. Therefore Gert has already made its turn toward the east, away from Bermuda. It looks that Gert won't even pass the 63W longitude line. So good news, the center will stay further offshore than expected! Also, winds are now near 110 mph, a little down again. Current weather conditions show sustained winds of 36mph from the northeast, with gusts of 73mph! All in all it looks a little better for Bermuda, but winds are already gusting to almost hurricane force. Later in the afternoon we will know more...

[Mon, 20 September 1999 23:45 EDT] - Great image...
Not too much new, it will be a close call. At least Gert is moving more northward now. A little more to the east and the center will stay clear of Bermuda. A great picture of the close proximity to Bermuda (the red dot) can be found at: http://lumahai.soest.hawaii.edu/gifs/atl_cam.gif. The effects of the storm on Bermuda can be tracked 'live' via: http://tgsv7.nws.noaa.gov/weather/current/TXKF.html, as I write this they are already experiencing gusts from the east of 40 mph (tropical storm force, although tropical storm force is defined as 'sustained' winds not gust of 40 mph and higher...)! But, as Anne Kermode, one of our special Hurricane correspondents on Bermuda reported: Gert's a commin'.

[Mon, 20 September 1999 12:50 EDT] - Getting closer...
The latest as of 11AM: Gert's center is positioned at 27.9N, 62.3W or about 335 miles south southeast of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, a little lower than yesterday. The latest forecast show that Gert might pass a little closer to Bermuda then was thought yesterday. In about 30 hours the center is expected to be at its closest point of approach, about 75 miles east of the island. Hurricane force winds extend to up to 105 miles from the center, this is WITHIN reach of Bermuda. The good news is that the eye (with at that time 105mph, still a Cat-2) will not pass over the island. But the eastern part of the island (St.George's) should be prepared. A little deviation to the west of Gert's track will make a lot of difference. Minimal hurricane force winds as are expected for Bermuda will not cause any widespread destruction, esp. when you know that in general houses on Bermuda are extreme hurricane proof with their concrete roofs.

[Sun, 19 September 1999 16:50 EDT] - Hurricane Watch/Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda
Models indicate that Gert should stay east of Bermuda, but with the uncertainty of these forecast, a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for Bermuda. Gert should is expected to move to the northwest for the next 24 hours, after which it will take a northernly track, then after 36 hours it is expected to move away to the east, away from Bermuda. The timing of all is dependent on a trough east of the US.
Winds are near 130mph, so it remains a very strong hurricane. The center is expected to pass east of the island as close as 100 miles in about 48 hours (so earlier than thought yesterday). 55 mph winds are expected to up to 150 miles to the northwest, and 105 miles to the southwest of the center. Well within reach of the island (tropical storm winds are by definition higher than 40 but lower than 74, hurricane force are winds higher than 74). Hurricane force winds can extend to up to 60 miles to the southwest, and 105 miles to the northwest, just within reach of Bermuda. So right now it doesn't look like the eye will pass over Bermuda, but since Gert is expected to remain a Cat-3 hurricane and the uncertainty of the track, close attention is advised.

[Sat, 18 September 1999 18:30 EDT] - Four more days to...Bermuda
Looking at the latest forecast track and extending it a little, takes Gert straight to Bermuda in less than 4 days. But well, it is still way to early to say. These long term forecasts are prone to large errors. However, we can of couse not ignore this still quite powerful hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are near 120mph, and fluctuating up and down somewhat. Currently Gert's center is located about 735 miles south southeast of Bermuda.
My thoughts: with the trough coming of the US coast will push Gert away (to the east) of Bermuda, probably at a safe distance.

[Fri, 17 September 1999 14:30 EDT] - No threat for Caribbean
Sorry for the lack in posting updates. Still hectic here with Floyd. But as expected Gert has indeed made its turn to the north before it reached the Caribbean islands. Gert is still a strong hurricane with 140 mph winds. The only threat for landfall could become Bermuda (located at 32.4N, 64.7W). In three days the center of Gert is expected to be near 27.0N, 65.0W, or about 370 miles south of Bermuda. At that time max. sustained winds are expected to be near 135 mph. And 50 knots winds extend to up to 150 kt northeast, 130 kt southeast, 90 kt southewest and 130 kt northwest from the center (1 kt = 1.15 mph). So it looks like Gert will pass in between Bermuda and the US, but it is still more than 4 days away, too early to tell if it will hit this area-wise relatively small target.

[Thu, 16 September 1999 11:10 EDT] - C'mon, turn north!
Gert is now located at latitude 18.3N and about 575 miles east of the islands. Getting closer..., but it is already at the same latitude as the northern islands. Gert has a little weakened to 'just' 145mph sustained winds. Although it is still moving west/west-north west, near 9 mph, all models indicate that this system will move more to the north later today or tomorrow. In time to bypass the islands. The US doesn't seem to be a target either, only maybe Bermuda, but that's still way too early to say for sure. Hurricane Hunters will check out this powerful hurricane later today. They will have a special guest on board; our own special hurricane correspondent from Antigua, Martha Watkins Gilkes! She will report back to us on her adventures, so stay tuned. It should be very interesting to get a very close-up view of a Cat-4 hurricane, esp. when you know that it will not threaten any landmass! She has written a story about the hurricane hunters for LIAT Islander Inflight Magazine. Available on-line on our website.

[Wed, 15 September 1999 17:00 EDT] - Don't forget...
All eyes maybe on Floyd, but there is still that Gert out there in the Atlantic and getting closer to the islands. Unfortunately have not that much time to analyze all data. It's quite hectic at this time for me with Floyd. In any case, Gert is now a strong Category 4 Hurricane with 150 mph winds. Minimum central pressure is 930mb. It isn't expected that Gert will strengthen even more. Although Gert is still moving mostly west, models indicate that it might more or less gets sucked in by the outflow of Floyd, steering it more to the north. Current latitude is 17.6N, and still about 725 miles from the islands. At the islands longitude (about 61/62W) Gert is expected to be at 23.5N, this is roughly 5 degrees latitude (5*69=345 miles) away from the islands. So, it's still looking ok for the time being.

[Tue, 14 September 1999 23:30 EDT] - The next big one...
Gert has strengthened quite a bit over the day. Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph, a strong Category 3 hurricane. And it is still far out... Gert is currently at latitude 17.3N and still about 950 miles east of the islands. It is moving a little north of west. A more northward course is expected later on. So with the NE islands at about 18N, 62W it looks like Gert will pass north! Approx. 350 miles away, further than Floyd, but that was a weaker storm at the time. Tropical storm winds are expected to extend to up to 145 miles, well without reach from the islands. However, as always, caution is advised. Gert is still 2-3 days away...

[Tue, 14 September 1999 11:00 EDT] - no change
With Floyd pounding on the Bahamas, there is at least still some hope with Gert. Not much change with yesterday, which is good. Forecast models still take Gert north of the islands. But again, don't let your guard down, it is still three days away!!!

[Mon, 13 September 1999 23:45 EDT] - Good news...?
Is there hope? Yes there may. Although Gert is still cruising west near 16 mph, there are 2 positive signs... 1. Gert has not intensified, winds are still near 85 mph, some models see a more hostile environment in the near future for Gert, so it might not strengthen as much and as quick as earlier anticipated. 2. Several models indicate now that Gert might go north of the islands, even the more conservative NHC forecast have the center pass just north. In three days the eye is expected to be near 18.5N, 59.5W, or about 200 miles east NORTH east of Antigua and about 270 miles east of St.Maarten/St.Martin. So within this almost 300 mile span Gert should move enough to the north to miss the islands.
However, I might just be too optimistic, these long range forecast are prone to large errors. But still, it's a hopeful sign...

[Mon, 13 September 1999 16:45 EDT] - Still going west...
Not much new with Gert. This morning it was, as expected, upgraded to a hurricane. I am not too fond of this one. Winds are already near 85mph and there is not much in the way to stop the gradual strengthening. It is expected to keep moving west (or west north west). Models show that Gert might be very close to the northern islands in about 4 days with 115 mph winds.... However, it is still too early to tell, but we have to pay close attention to this potential major hurricane.

[Sun, 12 September 1999 10:25 EDT] - What's in a name...
It was inevitable, but the tropical depression #9 has been upgraded to tropical storm Gert, the seventh tropical storm this year. Gert is still way out there, so we have time enough to follow this one. But I don't like the looks of it, despite its name. Currently it is at 14.0N, pretty far south, and worse, it is expected that it will travel due west for the next 3 days. This might become one of those more 'southern' hurricanes Dr.Gray has warned us about... Although still WAY to early to tell, but Gert could become the big one for the Caribbean.

Local updates by our Special Hurricane Correspondents available so far:
Antigua, BAHAMAS, Bermuda, Nevis, Puerto Rico, Saba, St.Croix, St.Maarten, St.Thomas, Turks & Caicos Is.
Map of the Bahamas (from Excite Maps)

Special Bahamas News Updates
Pleas for Help Bulletin Board

Relief Effort Guana Cay
There is now have a Relief Fund Account Set up for Great Guana Cay Community. These funds will go directly to the Local Community as to their needs. If you wish to call us please do not hesitate: 305-826-7447 Mr. Lynn or Michelle Borrow or e-mail RUIZAMC@AOL.COM

                Relief Fund Account
                  Acct#198-316-2008
                ABA#321180748
                Washington Mutual
                Miami Lakes Financial Center
                14045 NW 67th Avenue
                Miami, FL 33014
          Important:  Please email Michelle back your wire confirmation 
                      and your name to RUIZAMC@AOL.COM

[Wed, 15 September 1999 17:15 EDT] - Gone...
It's over for the Bahamas, or better it's starting for the Bahamas. With such a major hurricane like this, the aftermath is worse than the storm itself. First you are happy that you are still alive, then you see all the destruction of the island, your home, around you... Right now, communications are still very bad, though reports are now coming in. If you are looking for a family member/friend, you can post your plea for help on the bulletin board. Maybe someone else knows more than you. I know first hand how frustrating it is if you cannot get through to your loved ones. If you have any news and which is not yet posted on the Bahamas Updates page, please forward it to me. News is also posted on our Plea for Help board. This is the time to help each other out. We have to share what we know. No news is bad news. The good thing is that I haven't seen confirmed reports of fatalities.

[Tue, 14 September 1999 23:35 EDT] - Abaco Is.
Floyd's eye passed straight over Abaco Is. There will be a lot of damage. If you have family/friends; pleas for help can be posted on the new Bulletin Board. If you have any info, please forward to me. Also, check out the Pleas for Help and see if you can supply some answers. No news is bad news... What I can say from experience is that I don't expect any fatilities. The islands are rather flat, so flash floods are unlikely. Normally people have found a safe spot to batter the storm. Phone and power lines are down, and may take a while to be restored. This is the main reason you don't hear from anyone on the islands right now...

[Tue, 14 September 1999 11:00 EDT] - ...
The eye of Floyd just passed east of Eleuthra, almost touched it. Extensive damage expected on this island. Now it is in between Eleuthra and Abaco Is. Floyd maximum sustained winds are down to 145mph. But who cares, 145mph or 155mph, it doesn't matter. It's track is a little more eastward than I thought yesterday. 'Good' for Grand Bahama, and the more western islands. But for Abaco...here it comes. So far, we are still getting 'live' reports from our 'Abaco Girl' Cheryl. Power is down (usually done as a safety measure) but she has a generator, as long as phones stay up, she can send us updats. But it does not look good, and will get worse...

[Mon, 13 September 1999 23:50 EDT] - Help!
Floyd is still borderline Category-5. It is HUGE!!! Track is a little more west again than anticipated. Might be good (or should I say less worse) for Abaco. Worse for Eleuthra. And for Grand Bahama Is. it still looks bad. Not much more to say than if you are not prepared for the worst yet, then... At least Floyd is a fast mover. In 24 hours the eye (but not the winds/rain/surf/etc.) will be past the Bahamas. Keep up to date with what is happening on the island by reading the special reports by our hurricane correspondents (see above).
As for the US; Florida, Georgia, North/South Carolina... with the uncertainty of the exact track, don't bother with it. Just be prepared for a monster of a storm.

[Mon, 13 September 1999 16:50 EDT] - Still going west...
Center of Floyd is now near 24.2N, 73.7W or about just 50 miles east of San Salvador. Floyd is moving a little faster at 16mph, but is still going westward. Computer models had expected that Floyd would have turned more northwards already, but no change in direction is noted as of yet. It is a big, dangerous, killer storm. Which, if any, of the Bahamas it will cross is not sure, but even if you don't get the eye, you better prepared for at least strong tropical force winds. I hope to get in more reports from the Bahamas by our special hurricane correspondents soon.

[Mon, 13 September 1999 8:44 EDT] - The big one is coming...
Pffff..., lack of shear, warm waters, Floyd is now a very strong Cat-4 Hurricane with 155mph winds, and a minimal central pressure of just 922mb! This is borderline Cat-5 (the highest classification on the Saffir Simson Scale). Worse is that Floyd is heading straight for the Bahamas. The official NHC forecast takes the eye of Floyd less than 50 miles east of San Salvador and Cat Island, even less from/almost hitting Eleuthra, brushing the southern most point of Abaco and going straight over Grand Bahama island. The marine advisory shows that hurricane force winds extend to upward 80 miles northwest of the eye, and 58 to the southwest. 60 mph winds extend to up to 165 miles NW, and 115 miles SW from the center; tropical storm winds up to 260 miles NW and 173 miles SW... So people on the Bahamas, be prepared for a 'big' hit...

The 3-day track forecasts have a tendency towards the west, although it is expected that Floyd will travel more northwards later on. The different weather models are relatively in agreement. But since the strongest winds are concentrated around the center a slight deviation to the east of west will make a world of difference. The timing: Floyd is moving along at 14 mph (this is good on one hand, since it will not hang around and do more damage, on the other hand, this forward motion has to be added or subtracted to the windspeed, depending on winddirection). In about 20 hours the eye is expected to be east of Cat Island, in about 30 hours close to Abaco Is. However, effects will be felt pretty soon. Tropical storm winds do extend to up to 260 miles to the north of the center, this equates to at a current speed of 14 mph, 18.5 hours. So that is in 1.5 hours for Cat Island... Again, please be prepared for the worst. This is what a Cat-4 hurricane is capable of:

          Shrubs and trees blown down; all signs down. Extensive damage
          to roofing materials, windows and doors. Complete failures of
          roofs on many small residences. Complete destruction of mobile
          homes. Flat terrain 10 feet of less above sea level flooded
          inland as far as 6 miles. Major damage to lower floors of
          structures near shore due to flooding and battering by waves
          and floating debris. Low-lying escape routes inland cut by
          rising water 3 to 5 hours before hurricane center arrives.
          Major erosion of beaches. Massive evacuation of all residences
          within 500 yards of shore possibly required, and of singlestory
          residences within 2 miles of shore. Example: Hurricane Andrew
          (1992)

[Sun, 12 September 1999 9:50 EDT] - Bahamas again?
Floyd has been moving due west for the last 24 hours or so. Not good for the Bahamas and Turks&Caicos. Maximum winds are now near 115mph, making it an 'Extensive' Cat-3 Hurricane. Some slow further strengthening is expected. Right now the eye of Floyd is located at 22.9N, 66.2W or about 365 miles east of Turks Island.
Floyd is expected to move more to the (west) northwest later. For the islands, the sooner, the better. The different forecast models show that Floyd might either pass over the northern Bahamas or stay, like Dennis, just to the east of the Islands. But Floyd is no Dennis. Dennis maximum sustained winds at the time it passed the Bahamas were about 80mph, a minimal hurricane. Floyd is a major hurricane. The approximate timing, in 24 hours Floyd is close to the Turks & Caicos Islands, 24 hours later the central Bahamas, and then the northern Bahamas. At that time Floyd's winds are expected to be as high as 125mph, still a Cat-3, but close to Cat-4 (an extreme hurricane, winds higher than 130mph). In conclusion, it does not too good for the island. Don't compare this to Dennis. There is still time to prepare, but keep a very, very close eye on the progress of this major hurricane!

[Fri, 10 September 1999 16:50 EDT] - It's going to be a big one
The local reports by our special hurricane correspondents indicate that so far all is well on the islands. The center of Floyd will stay clear of the islands, though some of the outer bands are over the islands right now. Satellite images and reconnaissance flights show that Floyd has become much better organized and is expected to become a Cat-3 Hurricane in 72 hours. It seems like Floyd is going a little more north than previously thought, so hopefully Floyd will be taken out to open sea before it reaches either the Bahamas or the US coast. But it's still too early to tell. For now at least, people on the NE islands, USVI, BVI, PR, etc. can breathe a little easier, although Floyd's center is still east from most of them, and the 'backside' of Floyd is stronger than the west-side.

[Fri, 10 September 1999 11:00 EDT] - Rain...
We are in pretty good shape. So far Floyd is more or less behaving as predicted. No sudden dips southward. Therefore 200 miles is still a good estimate as Floyd's closest point of approach to the islands. Winds have increased though to 80 mph, and therefore Floyd is now a hurricane. Although tropical storm force winds extend outward to up to 175 miles from the center; on the southwestern side of the storm, the 'island' side, tropical storm winds extend to 'just' 65 miles. However, as the storm moves further to the west, the islands will be to the southeast of the center. Tropical storm force winds at that side extend to up to 130 miles, so still out of reach of the islands. In any case, the outer bands are passing over the islands right now. Read the updates above for more local info.
As for the other islands more to the west (BVI, USVI, Puerto Rico, etc.), it looks like Floyd will continue its west-northwest motion so Floyd should stay on a safe distance. However, it might not turn more to the north in time to have some impact on the Bahamas or even the Turks&Caicos.

[Thu, 9 September 1999 22:55 EDT] - 200 miles
The 11PM advisories are in. The good news is that against expectations Floyd hasn't strengthened. With max. sustained winds of 70mph it is still a strong tropical storm. Currently the center is located at 18.3N, 57.7W or about 265 miles east of Barbuda. It's forward motions has slowed down somewhat. An indication that it will take a more northern track? As it looks right now, Floyd's center closest point of approach will be 200 miles. Tropical storm winds at that time are expected up to 105 miles from the center, well without reach of the islands. So it is looking a bit better. Some rain, a little wind. Chances are really, really slim that Floyd will pose a great risk for the islands.

[Thu, 9 September 1999 17:00 EDT] - Getting closer - Tropical Storm Watches issued
The 11AM advisories were not as hopeful as the 5AM ones. Instead of moving west northwest Floyd has been moving due west (going straight for the islands). The 5PM advisories show that fortunately the west northwest direction has resumed. The official forecast still indicates that the center will pass north of the islands. Floyd is 'just' a tropical storm, and rapid strengthening is not expected anymore for the next 24 hours. Also, it is already at 18.2N and still about 320 miles east of Barbuda. Nevertheless, this system is pretty big and will impact the islands somewhat. There is always uncertainty in predicting the future track, but as it stands right now, things look ok, not good, just ok. Floyd is moving along pretty fast (15mph) so within 20 hours we will see. If the storm makes an unexpected little dip to the south, the islands may experience tropical storm force winds. Therefor watches have been issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St.Maarten/St.Martin, St.Barts and Anguilla.

[Thu, 9 September 1999 8:05 EDT] - A little more northwest please
Two rather good developments. 1. Floyd hasn't strengthened much and is still 'just' a tropical storm. 2. The 3 day forecast is showing a slightly more northern track than last night.
Floyd is a fast mover, we'll know by tomorrow, but I don't expect too many problems (except for rain) for the NE Islands.

[Wed, 8 September 1999 23:25 EDT] - Hmmmmmm...
The 11pm advisories indicate that Floyd might take a more westernly track than expected. Also, the differrent models are more divergent. Although it still looks like that Floyd's eye will stay at least a distance of about 200 miles from the northeastern most islands (Anguilla, St.Maarten/St.Martin, Barbuda, Antigua) I don't like the trend to a more westernly (ie., closer to the islands) course. As things stand right now, and if the official NHC forecast pans out, Floyd's eye will pass as close as 200 miles from the islands in about 36 to 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds at that time are expected to be around 80-90 knots (a strong Cat-1/weak Cat-2 hurricane). Luckily the 'grunt' of the storm is to the north of the eye, away from the islands. The marine forecast indicates that tropical storm force winds extend to 'only' about 65 miles southwest of the center, well without reach of the islands. However, the system already shows excellent outflow, if the center becomes better organized it might strengthen much quicker. We'll see what really happens...

[Wed, 8 September 1999 17:00 EDT] - Still looking ok
The latest advisories still show that the center of Floyd will pass just north of the NE islands. The center is currently at 16.6N, 51.5W (roughly the latitude of Antigua, one of the more northern islands). However, this system is already pretty large, so even if the eye doesn't make landfall, the islands can still experience heavy rains (but probably no damaging winds). So, so far, we are ok but not out of the woods yet.

[Wed, 8 September 1999 11:15 EDT] - Floyd
Yesterday's 5 pm advisories reported that the 8th tropical depression of the season has formed in the central tropical Atlantic. Twelve hours later this system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Floyd.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph, but Floyd could become a strong hurricane in about 3 days. The center is located at 15.8N and about 755 miles west of the Islands, with a current west northwest movement near 15 mph this equates to roughly 50 hours... The good news is that the different model forecasts are in pretty good agreement that Floyd will continue it's west-northwesterly or even more northwesterly course. Therefore it looks right now that Floyd will pass north of the islands.

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