Public Forecast

SURFACE WINDS: Today through Saturday morning: East-northeast with a moderate to strong breeze of 13 to 23 mph, and higher gusts.

SYNOPSIS:  A surge of low-level moisture passing the region will cause periodic cloudiness and isolated showers across the local area.   Additionally, a tight pressure gradient associated with the strengthening Atlantic high pressure will cause brisk winds and deteriorating seas, with above normal northeast to easterly swells. Rough waves are expected to peak near 11 feet on Saturday, particularly on the eastern shore. Sea bathers and occupants of small crafts are urged to stay on shore to prevent personal injury, death, or material damage over the weekend.

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN #1

DATE ISSUED: Monday, November 12, 2018 
TIME ISSUED: 04:00PM

For Immediate Release: Monday, November 12, 2018/N194

Motorists advised in the event of heavy rainfall drive with extreme caution or stay-off road network

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Fire Department is requesting motorists to drive with extreme caution during heavy rainfall or if possible, to stay-off the road network as such events cause severe street flooding.

 ..the big question is will Invest 96-L move right across the northern Caribbean islands or will it move just north of the islands. Analysis of upper level winds show that it is going to be a really close call between a track just north of the islands and a track right across the northern Caribbean islands.

Either way, this tropical disturbance will likely bring heavy rainfall with gusty winds and rough seas beginning across the Leeward Islands on Monday that continues into Tuesday. This squally weather is expected to spread across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday and then across Hispaniola on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

"The Fire Department advises motorists to remain off the road due to severe street flooding. Motorists already on the road should avoid driving in low lying areas.  Those driving on hillside roads should drive with caution and be on alert for possible rock slides. For those considering going out, it is advised to stay off the road until weather conditions improve. It will take a couple of hours before street flooding subsides as the water flows from streets into drains and other waterways."

Summary of Forecast for the season
October to December 2018.

Tropical Depression #9:
5 am EDT/4 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 14.3 North Latitude, 35.4 West Longitude or about 1720 miles to the east of the Windward Islands.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 Millibars or 29.74 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 5 mph.

The forecast for Tropical Depression #9 is a very uncertain one and all interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Satellite imagery and weather analysis indicates that TD 9 is being impacted by fairly robust wind shear and these unfavorable environmental conditions may continue for at least a few days. Should this occur, then the depression will struggle to strengthen and we may have a much weaker system moving into the Caribbean. This is what the latest European model and GFS model seems to suggest.

On the other hand, analysis reveals that there is an area of lower wind shear situated between 50 and 60 West Longitude and this system is likely to move through this region by about Wednesday. What may happen is that we could see a quick burst of intensification just before TD 9 moves across the Lesser Antilles late next week and this is something that will need to be monitored.

The intensity guidance is of no help with some members peaking this at a tropical storm while a equal number of members forecast a peak intensity of a Category 1 hurricane. The HWRF model's forecast of a Category 4 hurricane looks like a outlier and will be disregarded.

Tropical Depression 9 should move on a general west to west-northwest path for the next several days as a upper level ridge of high pressure pushes the system westward.

My Thinking Is That this system will end up tracking right across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands on Thursday as a tropical storm. The islands that really need to keep an eye on this storm include Antigua, Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique. It should be noted that even though I'm currently forecasting this system to move across the central Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm, there is the very real possibility that it could be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at that time.

Bottom line is that I strongly advise everyone in the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression #9.

"Planned trajectory of hurricane Beryl at 05 local hours

The first hurricane of season 2018 should continue to strengthen for the next 36-48 hours before weakening at Tropical Storm Stadium Sunday morning. Beryl would be less than 500 kilometres from martinique and a passage between Dominica and the archipelago of guadeloupe at the low tropical storm stage should occur Sunday night at Monday morning. Once in the Caribbean Sea, where the atmosphere would be more hostile, the cyclone should become a tropical wave during the day."

I am hoping that Dominica stays safe. They certainly don't need another storm this yer.

Hello everyone

St Maarten had cloudy skies but not much rain from that tropical wave. We still need rain badly. The hills are brown and the cisterns are empty.

But our African Tulip tree, which is barely standing after Hurricane Irma, just produced its first bloom in a long time.

* Dust/Allergy >> A plume of Saharan Dust is still invading the local region. Thus, allergy sufferers are advised to take the necessary precautions until further notice.

Good morning

I woke up  to hazy skies on St Maarten this morning.  I thought our dump was on fire again, but, no, I don't think that's it, for a change.

I think we are getting  some Saharan dust today, and it looks like more coming across the Atlantic.

We need some rain so I do hope we get some showers.

Sub Tropical storm Alberto is producing lots of rain over Florida this morning. Reminder to everyone that even a weak tropical wave can produce flooding, especially in the islands.