Potential Tropical Cyclone #2:
11 am EDT/10 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 9.8 North Latitude, 57.5 West Longitude or about 260 miles to the east of Trinidad.
Maximum Winds: 40 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 Millibars or 29.80 Inches.
Forward Movement: West at a forward speed of 23 mph.
Satellite imagery today indicated that an area of deeper convection has blossomed around PTC #2 this morning. In fact, this is probably the closest this system has been so far to being a tropical storm. Once reconnaissance aircraft is able to find a low-level center, it will be immediately upgraded to a tropical storm as maximum winds are already 40 mph.
PTC #2 is currently heading on an almost due west track today and a strong high pressure ridge to the north of it will continue to guide it westward. This means that this system is likely to pass right over Trinidad and Tobago tonight before passing right over the ABC Islands on Wednesday night as a tropical storm with about 45-65 mph winds.
Beyond this, it looks like this system will encounter low wind shear and very warm ocean waters in the southwestern Caribbean Thursday night and Friday. If PTC #2 is able to survive its trip near the coast of northern Venezuela, it will very likely strengthen into a hurricane in the southwestern Caribbean before coming ashore in eastern Nicaragua on Saturday.
One item that we will need to keep a very close eye on is the blossoming convection, which seems to be occurring further north than what most of the model guidance have forecast. If we should see this continue and should this lead to a low-level circulation forming further north than what guidance shows, it could lead to a slightly further north track across the Caribbean. It could also lead to a much stronger system in the Caribbean. Just something to keep an eye on.