Caribbean Hurricane Network

Active Tropical Systems: Tropical Storm Gustav, Tropical Storm Hanna
Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30

GOES-12 Hurricane Sector - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:45 UTC, 53 minutes ago)
Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery].

Good evening!

Tropical storm Gustav continues to pound Jamaica with heavy rains and near-hurricane force winds while setting it's sights on the Caymans next. Most of the Caymanians (?) know how to prepare for tropical systems so I hope they are ready. From what I have heard so far, they are. After the assault on the Caymans, Gustav's future and where it will strike the Gulf of Mexico's coastline are up for conjecture. Many variables will play into Gustav's intensity and final landfall so no guard should be let down. As was Fay, not an easy storm to forecast so all bets are off at the moment.

Tropical storm Hanna doen't appear worthy of TS status right now as wind shear from the upper level low next to her has been like a lion, gnawing her outer shell to expose her center. Fay was way more impressive before she became a named storm but Hanna has maintained her low-level circulation and that's the difference. Looking more like a deformed moth embryo, Hanna has spread out. Her center is at 20.7N 60.1W but you really wouldn't know it by her previous satellite photo's unless you knew what to look for. Forecast to still move WNW and then pull an Andrew but here again, many variables play into her path down the road.

Eastern Caribbean, it's time to get serious folks! The line-up coming off the African continent is filled with evil intentions, starting with the one exiting now. Forecast models develop every one of these storms so, if you are still procrastinating about preparing, now's your final chance. I mentioned this first one previously and from what I've been following, many predict this to be a classic, powerful, Cape Verde storm. Play time is over.

Dave

Good morning!

With Gustav to the west and Hanna to the east the VI, BVI's and PR are in a tropical storm sandwich! Variable winds have left the seas very flat on all sides and with virtually no breeze, the humidity is sick and the mosquitoes even sicker! As an example of how flat the seas are, imagine skipping a stone across Pillsbury Sound from St. Thomas to St. John! Yes, that flat!

Just to make things even more interesting, a reader showed me one of the longer term model runs yesterday and it showed what looked to be a Cat 1 hurricane sitting on St. Thomas on Sept. 6th. Now, look at the African coast and what do we see? A very well defined wave about to enter the arena. Something to ponder......

Another wave is around 800 miles to the south west of the Cape Verdes but not showing much promise....yet.

And just to add more intrigue to the already complicated tropical situation, we have a disturbance flaring up in the Bay of Campeche to monitor. It's proximity to Mexico should slow or prohibit it's development but you never know.

Oh, throw in a 96L off the coast of South Carolina and we now have a plethora or tropical systems to wonder at, watch, and worry about. Gustav is the king right now with his queen, Hanna not to far behind. Will Hanna pull an Andrew and catch up with her king or will she desert him and kiss Bermuda instead?

Dave

Thursday, August 28, 2008 07:44AM PDT - Surprise!
What a difference a night makes (didn't I start off a couple of days like this as well?). I don't like slow-moving hurricanes because they locally dump too much rain and are so hard to forecast where they will go. I also don't like reading in the advisories that the hurricane hunters found a 'surprise'. I like hurricanes that follow models and nicely move along their predicted path. But Gustav a couple days ago decided to hang around Haiti, killing at least 22 people. The 'surprise' this morning was that the center of Gustav is way more to the south. It also has been moving a bit more south since yesterday. All this has large implications for its projected path, esp. for Jamaica and Grand Cayman. Models for days pretty much agreed that Gustav would travel westward, nicely in between Cuba and Jamaica. But now they predict that it will go along the south coast or over, not staying north of Jamaica. Currently the center is only 45 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica. Gustav has also become much stronger overnight. Last night it was barely a Tropical Storm with 45 mph winds, now it is up to 70 mph, almost hurricane strenght (min. 74 mph). So Cayman and Jamaica, it is getting a bit more serious now! Gustav is moving more to the west now, but still quite slow, so there is the potential again for life threatening flash floods and mudslides. Use the distance and closest point of approach tools to calculate how close and when the storm is near your island.
Also we have a new depression, number Eight, soon to be called Hanna probably. Normally I would be surprised if I read that it is located only about 350 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, but luckily it is moving to the west-northwest, bypassing the islands. It might curve later more to the west, but I think it will stay north of the Bahamas as well. I just notice that Tropical Depresssion Eight is indeed upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna. Stay safe, Gert

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE... AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

- Updates from the Islands -