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- The Heat Is On
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- By Frank Goodwill <nevis.storm at hotmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 14 Jun 2024 23:05:05 +0000
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Good day everyone,
My first post for hurricane2024 season. Lots of speculation that this will be a very active season. Interesting that we didn’t have a pre-season named storm this year. A direct hit from a hurricane is a low risk but as they say it only takes one. People
seem to dwell on storm wind speeds, but more problems result from heavy rains and storm surge.
A tropical depression or tropical storm can dump a lot of rain. Flash flooding and run-off can cause problems.
So we keep an eye on the forecasts.
At the moment on Nevis there are high temperatures and not a lot of rain. Government supplied water conservation seems to be a way of life with large areas of the island having their water turned off at night. Note in the attached temperature picture 88F
is about 31C but the ‘feels like’ is higher. This is lower than temperatures at see level.
Keeping oneself hydrated with water and prevention against the impact of heat and strong sun are more on one’s mind at the moment.
As with every year you should prepare for the worst and hope and pray for the best.
I’ve added some photos:
Nevis Peak
On the horizon Antigua
Closer Redonda and Montserrat
The green foothills of Nevis Peak
Regards,
Frank Goodwill
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- Historical Record of hurricanes around Nevis
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- By H Hallstrom <hwh888 at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 8 Jun 2024 14:28:01 -0400
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Greetings All,
Below is a NOAA website of hurricanes Cat 3,4 & 5 from 1890 - 2023. There were 34 storms many unnamed in the beginning years of hurricane tracking. Note these are storms that passed within a 70 mile radius of Nevis. Data shows some of these hurricanes did not reach Cat 3 or above til after passing beyond our area. Statistically that equates to a 25% chance based on above information. In actuality it is much less due to the 70 mile radius and the later development of hurricanes after passing Nevis.
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- Nevis Weather Data For May
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- By H Hallstrom <hwh888 at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 1 Jun 2024 16:42:30 -0400
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Greetings All,
Attached Nevis Weather Data for May 2024, for those interested. Attachment:
05_May_NOAA Nevis Weather Data.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document
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- Another way of analyzing data
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- By H Hallstrom <hwh888 at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 22 May 2024 09:37:56 -0400
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Greetings All,
Here are a few more facts about past hurricane events in and around Nevis/St. Kitts.
Since 1851 to 1922 (151 years) there have been a TOTAL of 38 hurricanes passing within a 70 mi radius of our islands. Of those 38 hurricanes 8 were classified as Tropical storms not hurricanes, leaving a total number of 30 hurricanes ranging from Cat1 to Cat 5.
So now lets change to storm radius from 70 mi down to 50 mi. Now there are only nine hurricanes. As listed below. 1871 - category 3 Unnamed 1876 - category 3 “ 1898 - category 2 “ 1999 - category 4 “ 1908 - category 3 “ 1922 - category 3 “ 1924 - category 3 “ 1928 - category 5 “ 1932 - category 4 “
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- Some Hurricane History for Nevis/St.Kitts
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- By H Hallstrom <hwh888 at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 21 May 2024 15:31:10 -0400
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Greetings All,
I've been reading and listening to all the worried up hype about this upcoming hurricane season. I've done a bit of research on the subject as it pertains to our area of the Caribbean. While we definitely need to pay attention, I also feel there is way too much "scare" being played into the subject. Take a look at what transpired around Nevis/St. Kitts over the last 42 years, and you tell me if I'm wrong.
Attachment:
Hurricane History St. Kitts & Nevis.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document
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- Nevis April Weather Data
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- By H Hallstrom <hwh888 at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 1 May 2024 09:37:38 -0400
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Greetings All,
Attached weather station data for month of April for those interested. Early this month....for a change
Attachment:
04_Apr_NOAA Nevis Weather Data.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document
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- Info on Upcoming hurricane season
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- By H Hallstrom <hwh888 at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2024 18:16:02 -0400
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Greetings All,
This info is from
Colorado State University team.
Today Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University issued their well respected forecast
for the upcoming season. And it is not looking good... This may come
as no surprise, since last year we had the battle between El Nino, which
decreases hurricane activity, and warm sea surface waters, which
increases hurricane activity. El Nino lost... This year we won't have
an El Nino, but La Nina conditions, which normally enhances hurricane
activity, plus the record warm sea surface temperatures are still here!
As it pertains to St. Kitts & Nevis there normally is a 9% chance of being hit with a hurricane, statically speaking. For the 2024 season, they are forecasting a 15% chance of a storm over or near our twin island. Which equates to a 60% increase of a possible "chance".
Maybe nothing to worry about, but still be aware of the potential.
Thanks to La Nina.
Perhaps a saving grace is large Sahara Dust movement across the Atlantic in our direction.
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