- Updates from the Islands -
- - Dominica - -
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- Updates from the Islands -- - Dominica - - |
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| - Tropical wave #47 SVG impacts... |
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It was really sad to see the impacts from the flooding rains caused by the passage of Tropical wave number 47 in the Island of St. Vincent (SVG) today. Very early morning rains lasting into the latter part of the morning created devastating flash flooding after over 5 inches of rainfall was recorded at the Argyle International airport (St. Vincent and the grenadines). The severity of the October 6th floods were largely caused by the fact that soils were apparently already mostly pre-saturated etc.
in addition to the intense rate of rainfall.
A lot of public infrastructure was affected including widespread flooding of the lower coastal parts of the capital city Kingstown, the main hospital and several schools and homes. Perhaps this system should have been designated at least as an invest (all things considered) -given its resultant impact.
Links depicting the damage associated with the SVG October 6th flooding are below: |
| - Cyclogenesis possible on Hurricane Maria's Anniversary... |
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-Cyclogenesis possible? It Looks like Fay and Gonzalo could briefly form potentially- if favourable conditions persist long enough- especially to the east of the Lesser Antilles islands as well as south of the Azores. *Hurricane Maria Anniversary: We continue to earnestly pay special respects and special tribute to the dead and missing from the catastrophic devastation caused by this Monster storm Nine years ago... Today marks the 9th anniversary of the infamous Hurricane Maria (September 18th -19th), an experience that is forever etched in our hearts and minds in the Commonwealth of Dominica Interestingly it was Originally forecast to be a weak-moderate category two at its peak strength while crossing the island of the Commonwealth of Dominica, Tragically, Hurricane Maria underwent an extraordinary period of extreme rapid intensification right up to its landfall resulting in the island's first Category 5 hurricane landfall in it's recorded history. Hurricane Maria unleashed at least 12-14hrs of terrifying, & mind boggling sustained cyclonic impacts (160mph sustained winds) across the entire island from the evening of Monday, 18th September, 2017 (from about 4:30P.M. beginning on the East coast of the island)- into the early morning hours of Tuesday, 19th September, 2017 (approximately 6:30A.M.). It truly seemed like the night of horror which would never end. Looking back at the ferocity of that Hurricane, and the devastation it left behind, my heart swells with a profound sense of gratitude to God for the gift of life and the strength to rebuild. Lord Jesus, thank You for being our shield and sanctuary during those terrifying hours. When the winds howled and everything around us seemed to fracture, Your grace held us together. Thank You for preserving our lives, for protecting our families, and for giving us the breath to see the dawn of a new day. And thank You for the speedy recovery of our lush island environment and delightful landscapes. As we pause to reflect on this anniversary, we especially honor the memories of those who were lost, but we also celebrate the miracle of survival. Thank You, God, for bringing us out of the storm, sustaining us through the recovery, and continuing to guide our path forward. *Kindly Remember to Pray for and assist victims of Natural disasters worldwide. |
| - Super Hurricane Maria Anniversary -Sept 18th-19th, (2017) |
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Today marks the 9th anniversary of the infamous Hurricane Maria (September 18th -19th), an experience that is forever etched in our hearts and minds in the Commonwealth of Dominica. Originally forecast to be a weak-moderate category two at its peak strength while crossing the island of the Commonwealth of Dominica, Hurricane Maria underwent an extraordinary period of extreme rapid intensification right up to its landfall resulting in the island's first Category 5 hurricane landfall in it's recorded history. Hurricane Maria unleashed at least 12-14hrs of terrifying, & mind boggling sustained cyclonic impacts across the island from the evening of Monday, 18th September, 2017 (from roughly 4:30P.M. beginning on the East coast of the island)- into the early morning hours of Tuesday, 19th September, 2017 (approximately 6:30A.M.). It truly seemed like the night of horror which would never end. Looking back at the ferocity of that Hurricane, and the devastation it left behind, my heart swells with a profound sense of gratitude to God for the gift of life and the strength to rebuild. Lord Jesus, thank You for being our shield and sanctuary during those terrifying hours. When the winds howled and everything around us seemed to fracture, Your grace held us together. Thank You for preserving our lives, for protecting our families, and for giving us the breath to see the dawn of a new day. And thank your for the speedy recovery of our lush environment and delightful landscapes. As we pause to reflect on this anniversary, we especially honor the memories of those who were lost, but we also celebrate the miracle of survival. Thank You, God, for bringing us out of the storm, sustaining us through the recovery, and continuing to guide our path forward. Kindly Remember to Pray for and assist victims of Natural disasters worldwide. |
| - Tropical storm Dolly... |
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Well as was anticipated, Tropical storm Dolly has been named & designated. It remains to be seen what the impacts on the Lesser Antilles might be, and if the forecasted weakening actually occurs as is currently being projected. For the time being it's a minimal Tropical storm.
Stay Vigilant & safe folks... |
| - Weekend weather...? |
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Either way this system is very likely to bring Storm (gale) force conditions Similar to what 92L produced across the central Lesser Antilles about a couple of weeks ago. In that case Potential Tropical Cyclone alerts might be needed for issuance in advance of its approach- out of an abundance of caution. Precaution is always better than cure... Stay safe folks! Blessings! |
| - Vigorous Tropical wave impacts |
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It has been a night filled with squalls and gale force winds. For the most part though it has been at least tropical depression type conditions especially in the south of the island with occasional gusts to tropical storm force. Thankfully, it was not worse. However, It has been an absolutely incredibly gusty 24 hrs since a wind surge preceeded this tropical disturbance (92L). Power issues were being experienced prior to the arrival of this tropical system, unfortunately, so it's likely worsened at the moment. Many areas of higher elevation are littered with branches which is typical for such inclement conditions. & The sea state is also elevated. However It's good to see that Most mariners heeded the warnings. A collective sigh of relief can be breathed that this system was not any stronger in intensity.. A full fledged storm or hurricane would have been quite impactful. So far most areas seem to have picked up about 60mm from the passage of 92L. Of course, larger amounts would have accumulated in the mountainous interior of the island. Although there are still lingering squalls, at this point it seems like the worst is behind us. But the hurricane season does continue, stay safe & Vigilant folks (it only takes one). Blessings! |
| - Vigilance... |
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We have had a couple periods of brief, but moderate shower activity accompanied by brisk winds so far today in Roseau, 🇩🇲 However, Re: added vigilance & erring on the side of caution-Perhaps A Potential Tropical Cyclone alert should have been issued by the relevant Meteorological authorities (NHC) -given that the weather system (92L) might produce gale force conditions in portions of the Lesser Antilles from Friday night. Also, even if Tropical Disturbance (92L) does not intensify into a tropical cyclone, its passage over the central Lesser Antilles is expected to cause a significant deterioration in weather conditions across the central Lesser Antilles islands as increment weather kicks in. Weather conditions are not expected to deteriorate fully until later tonight: winds will gradually strengthen, and sea conditions will worsen accordingly. The first heavy rainfall is generally expected from Midnight. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are anticipated into the early morning and throughout Saturday, & conditions are likely to include frequent rain—which might be occasionally torrential. Rainfall totals of 60 to 100 mm over a three-hour period are possible, with local totals of 100 to 150 mm (or more) in mountainous areas. Over the course of the entire event, widespread totals of 100 to 150 mm are expected, reaching up to 200 mm locally in the interior and eastern parts of the island including the south. Extreme caution is advised near watercourses, especially near large rivers, areas prone to rock slides & in flood-prone areas. Blessings to All! |
| - Vigilance... |
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| - Cyclogenesis mode |
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Eyes peeled eastward... Cyclogenesis is definitely underway Re: 92L, and could possibly involve multiple areas in the Atlantic over the coming weeks. Indeed, we are approaching the Climatological peak of the Hurricane season as activity ramps up. In fact, 92L looks set to give us some rough weather in the Lesser Antilles island chain. We need to certainly be proactive here in delightful Dominica, the Nature Island of the Caribbean by this weekend. Given the regional climatology and analog comparisons it's likely that 92L will at least be at Tropical storm strength coming through the islands- due in part to relatively warm sea surface temperatures, & the 'Lesser Antilles rule', which typically kicks in near 55W for most tropical disturbances. & this is all largely irrespective of the strong el Nino that's ongoing as well as forecasted wind sheer etc. Stay Vigilant and prepared folks. It only takes one. God Bless! |
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