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- Updates from the Islands -- - Dominica - - |
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| - Vigorous Tropical wave impacts |
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It has been a night filled with squalls and gale force winds. For the most part though it has been at least tropical depression type conditions especially in the south of the island with occasional gusts to tropical storm force. Thankfully, it was not worse. However, It has been an absolutely incredibly gusty 24 hrs since a wind surge preceeded this tropical disturbance (92L). Power issues were being experienced prior to the arrival of this tropical system, unfortunately, so it's likely worsened at the moment. Many areas of higher elevation are littered with branches which is typical for such inclement conditions. & The sea state is also elevated. However It's good to see that Most mariners heeded the warnings. A collective sigh of relief can be breathed that this system was not any stronger in intensity.. A full fledged storm or hurricane would have been quite impactful. So far most areas seem to have picked up about 60mm from the passage of 92L. Of course, larger amounts would have accumulated in the mountainous interior of the island. Although there are still lingering squalls, at this point it seems like the worst is behind us. But the hurricane season does continue, stay safe & Vigilant folks (it only takes one). Blessings! |
| - Vigilance... |
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We have had a couple periods of brief, but moderate shower activity accompanied by brisk winds so far today in Roseau, 🇩🇲 However, Re: added vigilance & erring on the side of caution-Perhaps A Potential Tropical Cyclone alert should have been issued by the relevant Meteorological authorities (NHC) -given that the weather system (92L) might produce gale force conditions in portions of the Lesser Antilles from Friday night. Also, even if Tropical Disturbance (92L) does not intensify into a tropical cyclone, its passage over the central Lesser Antilles is expected to cause a significant deterioration in weather conditions across the central Lesser Antilles islands as increment weather kicks in. Weather conditions are not expected to deteriorate fully until later tonight: winds will gradually strengthen, and sea conditions will worsen accordingly. The first heavy rainfall is generally expected from Midnight. Heavy rains and thunderstorms are anticipated into the early morning and throughout Saturday, & conditions are likely to include frequent rain—which might be occasionally torrential. Rainfall totals of 60 to 100 mm over a three-hour period are possible, with local totals of 100 to 150 mm (or more) in mountainous areas. Over the course of the entire event, widespread totals of 100 to 150 mm are expected, reaching up to 200 mm locally in the interior and eastern parts of the island including the south. Extreme caution is advised near watercourses, especially near large rivers, areas prone to rock slides & in flood-prone areas. Blessings to All! |
| - Vigilance... |
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| - Cyclogenesis mode |
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Eyes peeled eastward... Cyclogenesis is definitely underway Re: 92L, and could possibly involve multiple areas in the Atlantic over the coming weeks. Indeed, we are approaching the Climatological peak of the Hurricane season as activity ramps up. In fact, 92L looks set to give us some rough weather in the Lesser Antilles island chain. We need to certainly be proactive here in delightful Dominica, the Nature Island of the Caribbean by this weekend. Given the regional climatology and analog comparisons it's likely that 92L will at least be at Tropical storm strength coming through the islands- due in part to relatively warm sea surface temperatures, & the 'Lesser Antilles rule', which typically kicks in near 55W for most tropical disturbances. & this is all largely irrespective of the strong el Nino that's ongoing as well as forecasted wind sheer etc. Stay Vigilant and prepared folks. It only takes one. God Bless! |
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