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- Happy Three King's Day!
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 6 Jan 2009 07:54:33 -0400
With 76F, a gentle breeze, the sun shining and barely a cloud, it looks like a good day to watch the Three King's come in over the water to give out gifts to the children (who put grass in a shoebox under their beds last night to feed the camels the Magi ride).

Art by: Olga Ayala



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- Cloudy
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 3 Jan 2009 08:31:34 -0400
First. Head's up surfers, there is a high surf advisory going on through noon Sunday for the north shores. Enjoy!

That dry air? Well, it's not so dry anymore. Here's part of what the SJ w.w.'s are saying:

variably cloudy skies and scattered showers will
move across Puerto Rico today...as an area of moisture from the
south surges northward across the local islands. Rainfall totals
are expected to be light...with more clouds than showers expected
across the region

It seemed like the temperature couldn't make up its mind last night as gentle rains showed up every once in awhile. Coolish then still and almost balmy. Or the balmy part could have just been me.

Happy Saturday!

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- 2008 Culebra Rainfall Data
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 1 Jan 2009 08:02:52 -0400
Happy New Year to All,

This morning was cool (63 deg) and clear to start the New Year, 
great views of all the surrounding islands.

The attached charts show the rainfall data for Culebra.  2008 being 
a relatively normal/average year overall.

Best of Health to All,  William


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- Happy New Year!
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 31 Dec 2008 18:11:29 -0400
This morning was blanket and quilt weather, in the upper 60's. Then the sun came out and it became a perfect day...2008 bowing out in Caribbean glory. The big party for the whole island is on the main street down to the plaza/ferry dock. Families will be out with tables of food, businesses selling food and libations, a bandstand for whoever is playing this year. Already firecrackers are going off and music is moving up and down my road.

To all, a healthy, positive 2009 (and hope you feel better quickly, Ann of Bonaire!). Thanks again, Gert, for helping us all be together for another year.

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- Stillness...
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 29 Dec 2008 08:09:27 -0400
(oops on the first one; hit send instead of...)

No winds. Almost stillness. Shhhhhhhhhhhh, the weather weenies got it. At least for right this minute. They are calling for sporadic showers later on but right now those look to be north of us. They are calling for the winds to pick up again too.

But at this moment, enjoy the calm. I've loved the winds, especially standing out in the middle of the bridge. But for beachgoers I know it's made the waves especially rough and dangerous for a few.

Happy Monday!!

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- Stillness...
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 29 Dec 2008 08:07:40 -0400


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- Christmas Winds cont.
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Sun, 28 Dec 2008 08:38:40 -0400
76 degrees, the sun is out, the sky will hopefully go that achy blue again and all is well. Drenching wild rains overnight have continued to help the gardens, though the winds suck up the moisture fast.
Hope your holidays are going well. Hanukkah ends tomorrow, but the festivities will continue here until Three King's Day, January 6th, so we're barely half way along. Most of us have adopted Three King's Day as the day of presents arriving, regardless of our beliefs or creeds, since it gives us a great excuse to be late to the PO sending prezzies and cards. It's worth a try anyway.

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- Happy Christmas!
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Thu, 25 Dec 2008 07:56:42 -0400
After a damp, windy & rainy dawn I went down to the water as the sky got strange and beautiful. Then I turned around and almost fell off the dock because of a huge, full, splendid rainbow! It was a glorious start to Christmas day.
Whatever the weather brings (and it's going to be like yesterday, so be ready for wind and on and off rain with the occasional sun burst...and maybe a rainbow, so keep your eyes open!), I hope your day is full of peace and good will. Spread it around, everyone can use some more.

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- Beyond chilly!
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:02:28 -0400
Brrrrrr! This morning was (is) cold!!! Cold enough for the tips of my fingers and toes to be numb. Sheesh. I think 67 was the low point, and now it's almost 70.

This morning I glanced out the door and saw winter color. I left my mittens and woolly socks inside and shivered my way to the water's edge. I could easily imagine being in the far north on a lake, waiting for the loons to start calling. Not that I've ever been on a lake in the winter with loons on it...but I bet it would look just like this! And that's close enough for me.

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- Morning Glory
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 08:13:26 -0400
According to the forecast, the winds are going to pick up again with a "fresh to strong northeasterly trade wind flow" and the on and off again showers will continue as well.
The wind started up a bit more yesterday afternoon, a welcome come back, after the stillness reminded me I hadn't been dripping sweat for awhile. This morning, it's definitely fresh, and a perfect 76 degrees. Winter here is so good! 

Have an excellent Monday!

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- Wild night
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Dec 2008 08:32:47 -0400
Lots of wind. Lots of on and off rain. At one point last night I checked our local weather station (found on wunderground with culebra plugged in) and the wind was 25 mph with gusts to 37! And that's on the hills? Seemed at least that down here in the low spot.

When I know a storm is not lurking offshore, the fairly wild gusting with rain is pretty exciting, washing the air all clean, keeping the mozzies at bay (no pun intended) slashing around the trees and boats (finding the one leak in the roof).

This morning I went out to see how happy the gardens are and everything looks like it grew three times as fast as normal overnight. This one papaya I had transplanted which got off to a rocky re-start, is now looking healthy and quite in the survival mode. This little guy was having a fine time on a 4 inch trampoline.


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- Happy Friday!
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 5 Dec 2008 08:01:45 -0400
This morning is one of those that tempted (and succeeded, a little bit) me to stay in bed a little bit longer. Perfect temperature for being under the blankie - not a cutism, it's not quite a full sized real blanket, and I'm not quite in need of one, so maybe it's blankie and Blankie - . The CWIM had even given up tapping my nose to remind me it was breakfast time in her world.  It was too easy...I had to get up. I missed the color of the actual sunrise, but the reflection of it on clouds in the west still lingered.

The chances for rain are uppe'd today, but not necessarily for us. Right now it looks like it could do anything. There is a little breeze down here, 76 degrees and the sun is creeping higher into the world. I think it's going to be a good one. But hey, I'm pretty convinced most days are good ones (remind me I said that if I get deep in the whining corner)

Locals note: DON'T FORGET!!!! If you have any interest about the direction of development on Culebra, come to the meeting tonight!!!! Don't leave it up to the *other* guy, because he or she could be leaving it up to you. Every voice, every body, counts. If you don't at least show, don't complain later - your thoughts, your ideas, just your presence might have really made a difference. Multi-use building 10:30 this morning (stupid time, I know..even MORE important you get there!)

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- Nothing to do with weather...almost
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 Dec 2008 19:32:03 -0400
We've had an on and off rainy day that started with high winds, rain, cold (to me/us). The highlight of my day was registering my dinghy with the only mishap being that the phones were out at the DRN (DNR in the rest of the close islands, DRN here) so they moved it to town. But once set up, an hour or so, I got through slick as a greased pig, no extra papers needed, bing bam boom, good for another year! May the houseboat reg go as well in June! More rain on and off during the day, hopefully a good thing for the tomato and pepper plants I transplanted in the children's garden yesterday.

BUT, this was something I read this evening that I thought this was pretty amusing and hope you all will enjoy.Sewer trenches??? I'm in! This woman writes an interesting, wide ranging blog I enjoy a lot called What Do I Know? (http://whatdoiknow.typepad.com) and this is her post from today. She is an American expat in England.

Obviously, the response to an American voice there is NOT the same as in the islands. Aren't we lucky it doesn't get freezing here?? I'll invite her here to see if she stands by her last sentence :cool:

December 04, 2008

The Internet Fends For Itself While I Cope in Total Darkness

I'm back. You probably didn't know I was gone, did you? But for several hours this afternoon and evening I was without power, which means I was without internet. Prophetically, I'd just updated my Facebook status: "Kathy is leaving the internet to fend for itself for a while" I wrote, around 3 p.m. A minute later, everything shut down. No lights, no CNN buzzing in the other room, no Radio 4 on the radio upstairs I always forget to turn off, no lights. No computer. No internet.

I knew immediately what had happened. For several days now, the water company has been tearing up my street, attempting to fix sewer lines for the residents upstream. The workers had accidentally cut the electricity lines to my house.

In England, it is very very rare to lose power, unless you live on the coast and you're experiencing gales. Here it just doesn't happen. My neighbor, of the sewer line mess, told us it had happened only four times in thirty years.

Regardless, when I phoned the power company, I got a royal runaround. First, you have to determine which power company services your area—not at all that clear. Then you have to find a number, without aid of the internet. Then you have to wait on hold for a long time, attached to a phone cord since the cordless won't work—and light is fast fading. But if you try to call an 0800 number from your mobile, you're charged.

Then when they finally answered, I got another runaround, had to call another power company—Southern Electric for future reference—and then had to convince the live person on the other end that I actually had a problem. They told me to go to the "customer box" and flip a switch to determine that it wasn't a problem within the house, since they hadn't received any other calls.

Of course I had no idea what a "customer box" was. Turns out it's the fuse box, which is in my garage—but the garage door wouldn't open without electricity, right? Unless I could find a key to the side door, with the help of my weak torch light.

See what I mean? This doesn't happen very often here.

Finally I convinced them it wasn't my fuses, and that the workers digging and jackhammering outside were at risk unless they GOT SOMEONE IMMEDIATELY OUT HERE TO FIX THIS! It helps to have an American voice sometimes. They were probably frightened I'd sue for damages—Americans are known as being frightfully litigious here.

Meanwhile, conscious of the rapidly approaching dark, I lit candles and found torches and batteries. I pondered the possibility of starvation and freezing to death. Once I'd done all I could to stave off either, I found I was in dire possibility of dying of boredom.

I cleaned my house in the dim light (wouldn't want anyone to find dirty countertops when they pick up my body!), and as the light finally gave out, I ate pistachios and cleaned out the bookmarks on my laptop. I phone my sweet little neighbor, to update her on the arrival of Southern Electric, and she told me I was doing a "champion job" surviving in the dark. She lived through the Blitz and knows a champion job when she sees it.

My husband came home, and we opened a bottle of wine, admired each other in the candle light, and pondered litigation.

Then the lights flickered back on, and things were suddenly normal again. I had a gazillion emails—turns out the world had continued on as we took a short break from the modern world of electricity and internet. I was high on lavender scented candles and wine by this point, and all thoughts of litigation had fled.

I can handle anything, I am convinced.



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- Culebra Rainfall Data
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 1 Dec 2008 07:24:43 -0400
Good Morning,

Culebra received 2.40 inches of rain this November.  That brings 
Culebra's total rainfall for the year thus far to 41.90 inches.  
Even though our November average is 5.40, the years total is just 
about normal for the 20 year average.

Last night Jupiter, Venus, and the Moon lined-up very nicely.  
Tonight you will see a tighter grouping of the three in the 
SouthWest sky.  Let's hope for another clear/cool night to observe 
it.

Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/


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- OOPS!!!!
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:34:55 -0400
That was the chart for 2007!!! More coffee, garcon!

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- Last Day of Official Hurricane Season 2008!!!
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:21:59 -0400
It is so beautiful here again today, as it was yesterday, that it almost slipped my mind that today is THAT day!
We were so very, very fortunate here (again) this year. The close brush with Omar ramped up the tension higher than I've experienced since living on Culebra, and I hope that's as close as one ever gets to us (knocking on wood). Many, many thousands of people suffered losses this year due to storms - lives, homes, businesses, land...remember when you go to complain about something to keep in perspective just what you truly have to be thankful for this November 30th.
Thanks to all who read my at times incredibly tedious following of storms this season. Occasionally, at the end of the day, boring is a good thing.

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- Calm & Bright
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 29 Nov 2008 07:48:53 -0400
With very little breeze here at the top of the bay, and few clouds, it looks like that drier pattern finally has arrived. We got a nice rain on and off overnight and may get more of that, according to the weather geeks. Fine with me if my gardens are watered at night. Some of the older, more thirsty plants still need a boost, but it's perfect for new tomatoes, peppers, watermelons and herbs.

My dinghy is (conga drum roll) back in the water (thank you Bobby & Sean)!!! I made a visit to the houseboat and was pleased to find it dry and clean...on the inside. Outside it has been a pelican helipad, smelling and looking like a pelican helipad, which is pretty disgusting. Note to self: bring bigger bucket to dip, slosh and scrape.

I keep a little fishing rod out there and thought since cleaning was out for the moment, why not see if I could still cast? Of course I got nothing, while literal feet away from me the peli's were diving, catching and I swear, chortling in my face. Not a particularly gracious bird, the pelican...

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- Happy Thanksgiving!!
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Thu, 27 Nov 2008 07:45:22 -0400
I don't know what the rest of the day will bring, but the sunrise this morning, almost ridiculous in its excess, was my first course meal and I'm FULL!!! It just went on and on, and got better and better..
Thanks to Gert for the opportunity to share my bit of the world with you all, and thanks to those who read about it!
Thanks doesn't cost a thing but it's probably one of the most valuable bits of life any of us have for health and harmony. Enjoy the day - and make it every day (minus the massive amounts of food!) 

MJ
Culebra, PR

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- Expect the Unexpected
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Wed, 26 Nov 2008 08:39:29 -0400
The rain that came in last night was a surprise, but shouldn't have been if I'd been watching the sat more closely. There are a lot of swirly whirly weather systems out there and the one to the southwest reached out a fingerling for a touch. Just enough to not have to water the gardens this morning; rain water is magic so I am always happy when I don't have to use piped water. Piped water keeps them alive, rain water makes things truly grow and glow. Well, unless you are flooded out, in which case everything changes and the above seems a bit insensitive. Hoping all our island neighbors who have undergone way too much rain will dry out and be able to get back to *normal* sooner than later.
Looks like the chances for rain on Thanksgiving are around and about - the on and off variety (which could dump on us or miss us completely, as usual). Make your plans accordingly! If you will be out after dark, I suggest three things. One, a light long sleeved something or other - it's getting chilly at night! Two, a note to remember to look to the southwest around dusk for a beautiful view of Jupiter and Venus edging ever closer together for their upcoming dance with the moon December 1st. And three (not necessarily for only Thanksgiving), a mental list of all you have to be thankful for this year, this life. Life is good, regardless of what might come our way that is not good. It just takes a little longer to see it.

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- Quiet...
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 25 Nov 2008 08:29:17 -0400
While there is a high surf advisory still in effect until 6 p.m. this evening, the winds have subsided almost completely as of this morning (at least down here in the holler). It was still chilly around dawn though, which was wonderful, and only 78 now.

As Thanksgiving approaches in a few days, I'll post the official forecast. They're calling for maybe/could be/or not rain for T Day, but we'll see what happens...I'm holding out for good weather; so should you!

(the CWIM was busy busy working in the garden at first light)

Winds will slowly subside through Wednesday when pressure gradients
begin to relax between the high pressure off the United States coast
and the low pressure system across the central Atlantic. It should
be noted...however that a second cold front now affecting the
eastern third of the United States is prognosticated to exit the United
States coastline by Tuesday evening and slowly approach our region
by the end of the work week. Whether or not it delivers another
surge of drier air remains to be seen. A more likely scenario
suggests a slight increase in precipitation and winds as current
airmass modifies and the density discontinuity approaches with
another pressure gradient developing.

The CWIM was busy working in the gardens at first light:

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Our local fish guy ( culebraflyfishing.com) was working too...nicely, the pelicans share - breakfast for them, bait for him.


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- Fall has fallen
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Sun, 23 Nov 2008 07:28:28 -0400
This morning is the second morning it's truly felt like fall to me. With temps in the higher 70's (yes, sorry, but that's real close to chilly for us), and the wind cranking out around 17 to 18 mph, you can almost smell the pavochon (that's turkey cooked in the traditional Puerto Rican fashion, worth checking out!) in the air!
The sunrise this morning reflected the weather patterns around us, a bit confused but almost overwhelmingly beautiful (sounds like a place I know). Clouds, possible rain bits, alongside sun and blue skies. I almost fell off the dock this morning just turning about looking at the colors everywhere (hey, it's only about 2 feet wide and quite shaky; Nadia Comaneche I'm not!). For you non-sunrise types, here's what you are missing.

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- Rain wake up call
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 20 Nov 2008 03:50:53 -0400
Since we've not had any rain in the last few days, to be woken with it pounding on the roof a couple of times in the last few hours was a surprise. Intense, but brief. Nothing really, but a surprise and a watering of the gardens, and especially nothing compared to the flooding rains that seem to be on islands all around us. It's really impossible to imagine that so many islands are undergoing such flooding and damage, ongoing at this moment, causing massive disruptions and destruction.

Positive thoughts & hopes are with those being affected, for health & safety, and with those in the Cayman's still coming out from the knock down of Paloma - for a quick recovery of life to normal (like homes to live in again, for one thing).
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- Peli Wednesday
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 19 Nov 2008 07:42:46 -0400
This day is starting out much like yesterday except for about 10 pelicans who were fishing so loudly it got me out of bed to be SURE it was just pelicans dive bombing the water. They don't get anything I'd put on the grill, but what ever they get is enough to keep them doing the equivilent of a precision air show. Yes, I'm easily entertained.

The radar looks clear except for a few little rain blips. Will one come and drop on us for a few minutes? I'd guess on the no side, but that will throw off the odds. So...maybe. I'd hang laundry today, I'd chance this about that.

Happy Wednesday!

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- Rain hits
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Thu, 13 Nov 2008 08:47:05 -0400
Last night, after watching one of those spectacular moon rises, the sky clear and the air temp cooling, it was a surprise when after a light sprinkle, a hard drencher started (and that's when I realized my louvered window had snapped its mechinism, requiring going out in the very cold rain to close it...to do list #178) and continued for a good 15 minutes or so.
We got another one here just a few minutes ago, not lasting nearly as long, or nearly as strong, but looking at the radar, it looks like we could be getting a few more of those...according to the forecast, this will continue through Saturday, with a clearer, back to almost perfect week ahead. That's their story anyway.
In the meantime, keep your eyes to the skies if you're planning on hanging out laundry!

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Late afternoon moon

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- Different Sundays
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 08:06:39 -0400
First, thank you to Chris and all of the other posters from the Cayman's for letting us know what is going on there. I know we've all been on the edge of our seats with concern, prayers and thankfulness that it appears no loss of life occured. Hopefully the injuries sustained are minor. The devastation on Cayman Brac is hard to read about, but there is the feeling of hope in such organized actions to rebuild and restore, even as the damage is being evaluated. We'll contribute what we can to help.
Here on Culebra, except for the one Paloma band we got the other night, it's been dry and sunny, very sunny, with occasional breezes for some coolness. 
~~~~~~~~~
A local note:
Don't forget the Art Auction at Dinghy Dock at 3 today. This is to help Per and Hector get to the states to greet their son who is coming home from Iraq. I know some people wondered if it was just to help them have a holiday, but it isn't. I'm hoping Hector will use the occasion to shave his beard off, as he promised to do so when Ian got *home*. But we may have to wait for their return. So show up and help a wonderful reunion happen! I've been told there will be some great art and Neil will be the auctioneer. That alone should be worth going to see. 
~~~~~~~~~
The first orchids of post-rain deluge. I never know which one will bloom first, so these little peepers, which only bloom sometimes are fun to watch (yes, my life is truly a dizzying whirl of excitement). I know the foliage will come back to the Cayman's but for today, I'm offering this.

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- To all in the Cayman's
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 7 Nov 2008 16:01:31 -0400
Best hopes and wishes. Glad to hear so many feel preps are complete. Listening to the radio there is a bit unnerving, hearing about boats out there in 16 foot seas. Our hearts are with you all.

MJ
Culebra

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- Grey & Flat Calm
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2008 08:13:17 -0400
Well, sort of grey and a few ripples here and there, with the sun unseen but banding through in a spot or two. And early this morning, chilly enough for me to wonder exactly where I stashed my light weight blanket. Not cold enough to actually look for it, but soon come. Nice!
TS Paloma will be to our west and heading north, affecting the Cayman's first in line as things look now.
We have a new President and an old mayor. Some things will change, and some will stay the same. Not profound, but true. On the bigger scale, I applaud! 

A fragile strength.

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- Looking good for Election Day
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 4 Nov 2008 04:53:55 -0400
With a forecast holding out only a small chance of brief showers, it looks like rain shouldn't be a factor here on Election Day. The word is many places will be closed today (me among them) but I know some of the gift shops will be open and probably a few other places, it will be go & see, as per usual. No alcohol is allowed to be sold during elections (and a wise thing it is) so I'll be gathering with friends at a home to listen for the local and US national results. That's why no rain would be a good thing, as we'll be mainly outdoors on the deck. Rain won't melt us, but the television might not like it...

Invest 93 is moving NNW, very slowly...we're not in the picture here, according to the models, but for some it's worth watching.

There was a l o n g parade of cars out last evening for one of the mayoral candidates. If sound were attached, it would be full of honking, screaming, laughing sounds as they went throughout the island cheering on their choice. Sound trucks have been driving around nightly, forever it seems, with one or the other candidates' chosen song blaring through loudspeakers - songs that insidiously lodge in your head even if you don't understand the words. That will be one of the nice things about the elections being over...(another good thing was when the governor came over to support his party's candidate he was appalled at our roads and they are now being *fixed*. I'm not sure how long this concrete work will last, as it looks like the patches could be picked up by hand, but it absolutely beats the scariest of the pot/trench holes we had before).

I'm ready for it to be Wednesday!

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- Head's up again, folks
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 2 Nov 2008 20:57:06 -0400
This from Jeff Masters blog today - check the loops on the sat pages so you can see what is going on...another weird one.

. I give a high (>50% chance) that this disturbance will develop into Tropical Storm Paloma this week, and a 40% chance that it will eventually become a hurricane. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras appear most at risk of heavy rains from the disturbance, although Panama and Costa Rica may also begin receiving heavy rains on Monday. The ECMWF model predicts that the disturbance will move over Jamaica on Friday, and it certainly possible that the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti may receive heavy rains from this storm by the end of the week.

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- Culebra Rainfall Data
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 1 Nov 2008 07:09:47 -0400
Good Morning,

Culebra's rainfall total for October is 5.7 inches, right about normal.
Our total for the the year thus far is 39.5 inches, already an inch 
more than the total for last year.
This is shown in our current great green & growing season.

Enjoy,  William


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- Home is where
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Wed, 29 Oct 2008 07:24:55 -0400
I think the CWIM was a little stunned to find me here this morning, even though she was quite nearby. All of the old *I'm just going to pretend to be stretching and ever so lightly sink my claws into your head* moves have to be felt out carefully, checking to see if the two legged thing with access to the magic door and bowl will respond as trained. Wa la! All is well.
We have a tropical wave to our east (VI's) and south that is moving mainly west, slightly northwest that could bring us some rain bits today and this afternoon, supposedly going over us and out by the end of the day. Do your laundry hanging early, just in case!
The air is, in this neck of the ...island...almost flat still, sun out, sky bluing up, 79 degrees...fan factor, comfortable. 

Happy Wednesday!

image/jpg

- update to help you Culebra sorts relax a bit ;)
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2008 21:39:53 -0400
I am running late. Packing up to go home after 3 weeks housesitting, watching my last bit of television (and trust me, as addicted as I am while in front of one, the minute I'm home, it's over...wish I could deal with smoking like that). And just so you don't worry, I was watching a show called How Did That Get on My Plate about jalepeno peppers...weirdly, when I was on the road in NC, I SAW the truck from the farm that was featured in the show and looked it up when I got home (hey, it was covered with hot peppers, how could I not follow up?). Pretty cool stuff...ok, pretty hot stuff. I'm only slightly having farm envy.

The outlook for us concerning 92L is pretty good as far as this not doing much, but still worth keeping a corner eye on. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

From a pro met posting on S2K:

"Development chances look low. NHC says <20%. That actual number is probably closer to 1-2%. Yeah, it's less than 20%. Plenty of shear in its path and no organization. Just scattered convection as the wave interacts with an upper trof."

From the 8 p.m TWO (we got used to the 5 during Omar, but that is an active system 'special edition', not the norm) I don't see any new models. That's a good thing.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH


--
Save What's Left!
- 92L
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2008 15:49:20 -0400
This has come up fast...and hopefully will go away just as fast but it's head's up time again

--
Save What's Left!

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Description: GIF image

- Sun, maybe showers...
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Mon, 27 Oct 2008 08:10:36 -0400
Typical forecast, which I blew yesterday, not expecting the overcast, still, humid day we had after a little row of absolutely perfect weather here. Today may have a bit more breeze, which is always welcome, especially on my little cart corner (which I still haven't gotten word on about having to move it or not for the trench crew). 
We do have a high surf advisory until 4 p.m. Careful out there!
Enough rain came down yesterday afternoon and evening to give a good drink to the plants without causing squishy ground or too many mud pits in the roads. Is it raining on you, St. Thomas? 

Happy Monday!

image/jpg
- beautiful keeps on
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 24 Oct 2008 19:40:15 -0400
First that's beautiful is the TWO...nothing going on. I love that! Second, we've been having weather that would register pure postcard perfect (PPP) n the meter of post Omar weather. A few showers, then glorious.
 
I'm almost done with housesitting and ready to tackle the undoing of some hurricane preps (some, not all!) when I get back full time to home. The gardens are green and thriving, the soil finally not squishy under my feet.
 
This is what I saw when wandering my yard. Plant life surprises, my joy.

--
Save What's Left!

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Description: JPEG image

- So close, so far
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 20 Oct 2008 01:33:54 -0400
As reports continue to come in, and some emails with photos from old friends from St. Croix, we continue to be very thankful, knowing how easily it could have been Culebra. Many thoughts for those of you who lost your boat homes. The photos are heartbreaking.
 
Today I saw a lot of people putting their boats back in the water, and I know others who are now out of the mangroves, cleaning up the mess mangroves make. The roads are drying up, though we continue to get one or two brief showers a day.
 
The two systems below us have now gone to one, continuing rain in Honduras and surrounding areas. Easy in the light of Omar to forget our neighbors to the southwest (not so easy if you watch the videos of destruction in the ABC's...there are quite a lot of vids to see if you put Omar in the search section of youtube), but Honduras and surrounding areas are getting drenched.
 
Today's sunrise, as shown in the Tortola report, was indeed glorious. The sun keeps rising, it will get better.
 
I took a long walk on the beach today...(picked up a bunch of plastic trash that had washed in, one piece I kept, a bread bin with Arabic? writing on it...where did THAT come from? If anyone can translate it, let me know!). There were only two tents in the campground and hardly any tourists on the island at all. A shame, since today was really beautiful and anyone could have a beach to themself!

--
Save What's Left!

Attachment: FlamencoCampground.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: BreadBin.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- Thinking of our sister islands...
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Oct 2008 08:31:13 -0400
As more and more reports come in, once people got out and about, the news for many of you is not good. As ever, there will be recovery, it's what we do. Here, where we were spared, it seems the heart attack induced of family man, friend and neighbor Fernando, Dadin, Bermudez is being reported as the only storm related death from Omar.

Culebra is a very tiny island: if you don't know someone well, you know who they are. So while I am so very glad this is the only mortality statistic, the irony is huge and tragic. Thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends. He will be missed.

--
Save What's Left!
- Omar...has left us here
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2008 07:12:01 -0400
We never lost power, phones, cable, satellite. There were more flucuations BEFORE Omar was, on the radar at least, swirling by to our east, taking a jog at the last minute, and sparing us much of anything. A light rain, some wind. Like it was just a kind of lousy weather night.

We, as an island, are so fortunate (almost), and I'm very thankful. I know for others it is not the same.  Sadly, a man did die here yesterday, after putting up his hurricane shutters. A very unexpected heart attack, at the age of 55. What tragic irony. I know the ABC's were blasted and others are getting impacted as I type. Hopefully there will be no loss of life, and minimal damage. That is a big hope at this point.

Be safe.

--
Save What's Left!
- so bizarre
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 23:52:34 -0400
If there was ONE place I was wishing Omar toward, it is EXACTLY where it is going to go through. The gap between the VI's and Anguilla (now at 40 + miles)! It is funneling through there, with it now extropolated to be around 50 miles from St. Martin/Sint Maarten and now St. Croix, about 27 miles. As a cat 3, the hurricane wind field has expanded to 35 miles rather than the 15 earlier, so yes, STX is going to get some bad blast, but not like when they were literally the total target.
 
Crossing my fingers and hoping this continues. And so weirdly and awfully, the ABC's seem to have gotten the biggest brunt so far, long before Omar was even Omar :(
 
I know everything can change in a minute...but I'm hoping for the best we can get.

Keep those mind pushes going!!!!


--
Save What's Left!
- Best story so far
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 21:19:28 -0400
The wind and rain are picking up a bit after a long L O N G day of relative quiet...not at all what I expected. We have a curfew here, I was surprised to find out, which I posted on my local site...someone wrote to me asking about the curfew and I told them what little I knew and said I hoped anyone who broke it was taken in. Starting out my island life on St. Croix and knowing the insanity that has happened there in the aftermath of hurricanes, I thought, hey, there's not much to tempt anyone here but you never know. So I got this reply, which I am still lauging about
 
[edited by me]

actually we did have a "break in" of sorts next door as some folks were busting into the building used as a church to put thier horse inside...the pastor didn't think much of their methods when he showed up(saw, etc. breakin down the door), but felt bad for the horse, i guess, as it's now inside the church.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The horse is safe for the night. Gotta love Culebra.



--
Save What's Left!
- The first band
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 14:03:17 -0400
played loud...a white out of the bay. The dogs are curled up as tight as they can be, the cats are just being cats. A settled down moment of heavy drizzle for now.
And still connected! Amazing!

--
Save What's Left!
- ugh
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 11:12:02 -0400
From the 11 o'clock TWO
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION
COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THAT ISLAND.  ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.2N  67.2W    75 KT
12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  65.9W    80 KT
24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.9W    90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  61.8W    90 KT
48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N  60.2W    85 KT
72HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  56.5W    75 KT
96HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  48.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 45.0N  32.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


--
Save What's Left!
- Town report
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:28:44 -0400
This is mainly for those of you who read this for Culebra info and are worried about what's going on right now...here ya go!
 
I left the hill to go feed the cat who isn't mine and make sure there wasn't anything more I could do at home. There wasn't (oh, there probably was and my psycho landlord has a lot of things he COULD be doing with the boats...but, it is what it is). Then DSL went down so I headed to town to hit the PO and see what was going on in our world. The roads are getting worse by the minute...I was singing new words to old songs about them to keep from gnashing my teeth. No, you don't want to know the words.
 
Town report is: Milka's (one of the local markets) is boarded up but open, go around the back Superette Mayra wasn't open but it was only 8 o'clock. Lots of people were/are boarding up. The bank closes at 11. There are no chocolate eclairs at Pan Deli (sorry, Rebecca). The PO is open. Lots of laughing nervous energy in the air, Chago was in rare form at the PO, gave me a good laugh and shocked a couple of the older locals (what else is new?). Bike Steve was there, he's outta here Friday morning, so if you see him, tell him ha ha ha, we'll see about that. The Tourism woman (Janet, I think) told me most tourists are gone, but a few are around. Posada la Hamaca is closed (Adam, the manager was there, he kicked 'em all off the island...or somewhere), Seabourne is empty. Boaters are staying at (I THINK this is what she said) Casa Ensenada. But she also said something about Cathy and Dick in connection with that so I'm not sure. Bottom line, everybody is someplace safe, it appears. Someone said they heard on NOAA radio that we have only a 10% chance of hurricane force winds. I hope that is true!
 
Back up on the hill I've gotten a few calls from Kelli, who of course, is feeling very far away. I think my cheery voiced opinion that everything was going to be fine fine fine was not really convincing her. It worked for me though!
 
--
Save What's Left!
- Hurricane Omar
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Oct 2008 04:10:48 -0400
Here we are, under a hurricane warning. The wind that was honking when I fell asleep has died. It's cloudy (can't see the glorious full moon, only a filtered glow) and almost entirely still. I should say eeriely still, but it's not. Just...still. Waiting for the 5 a.m. TWO and whatever happens next. Someone on another forum wrote "Be prepared for a cat 5" back when (oh so long ago!) Omar was still a TS. I wrote, prepared is prepared. The only decision is where to ride out the storm. And I fully believe that is how we should prepare. Omar underscores the point of...Nature really doesn't give a whit about what we think! In this season, we should plan for her maximum, hope for her minimum.

--
Save What's Left!
- latest
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:29:57 -0400

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
800 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...OMAR LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.
THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335
MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...68.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

--
Save What's Left!

- sent it too quick
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2008 10:55:19 -0400
TD 15 is now TS Omar.

--
Save What's Left!
- Comin' 'round the mountain when it comes
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2008 10:53:00 -0400
And that is the question, isn't it? Sooner, weaker, longer, stronger.

People here are in the last stages of prep, with gas lines at our two gas stations long, long long. The gas truck usually comes tomorrow, so no doubt we'll be out of gas for a bit. No one is panicking, rather deeply concerned.
I cabled the cart up and tied it to the bridge, figuring if the bridge goes, it won't really matter what I've done and I don't think that is close to happening. I hope...it's pretty rusty and hasn't been maintained since it was built many years ago, so Hugo is not a gauge of its strength anymore. But this is not a Hugo, and I am thankful for that.

We just got a little bit of rain here, not so much, really, but with the ground still fairly saturated, it won't take much for yard and street rivers. The big island of PR concerns me a lot, as flooding and landslides are going to happen without much rain at all, let alone a deluge. Let's mind push this puppy right on its way, please!

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst! I'd rather be at home but it's not as good as the concrete house where I'm housesitting, beside being about 20 feet from the end of the bay. So I'm dragging a bunch of stuff up the hill. Wish I could drag my propane stove!

Be safe!!!

MJ


--
Save What's Left!
- From Jeff Masters (or...Timing is Everything)
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:59:40 -0400
The track forecast for TD 15
The storm is expected to move little through Tuesday afternoon. An upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to position itself to the north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday afternoon, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this trough should draw TD 15 to the northeast across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or the eastern Dominican Republic on Wednesday or Thursday. There are considerable timing variations between the models. The fastest model is the GFDL, which predicts a Wednesday morning landfall in Puerto Rico. The slower NOGAPS and UKMET models predict a Thursday morning landfall. If a Wednesday landfall occurs, it would probably be as a tropical storm with 50-60 mph winds. A landfall delayed until Thursday would allow a stronger storm to develop, and TD 15 could be a Category 1 hurricane in this case. Up to five inches of rain has already fallen over the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico (Figure 2), but the heaviest rains have retreated to the south for the time being. Heavy rains are likely to develop over these islands again on Tuesday, and move into the eastern Dominican Republic and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Additional rain amounts of 5-10 inches are likely over some of these regions. Over Puerto Rico, isolated rain amounts in excess of 20 inches are possible before the storm clears the islands by Thursday. It currently appears that Haiti will only get 1-2 inches of rain from TD 15.


--
Save What's Left!
- Tropical Storm Watch for PR
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:13:10 -0400
Ok, boys and girls, I'm going to assume all your preps are ready??? If not, get a move on, just in case.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION
OF HISPANIOLA FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRISTISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  69.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  69.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N  69.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N  68.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N  66.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  69.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Attached Image (viewed 0 times):

203616W_sm.gif



--
Save What's Left!
- New model for what is now TD 15
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2008 11:24:26 -0400
The good news is, models change. The bad news is...

We're back to no electric...

--
Save What's Left!

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Description: GIF image

- quick model update
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2008 09:28:52 -0400
I just got a look a the the 8 a.m. models for 98L. Not a pretty picture for us.

--
Save What's Left!

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Description: GIF image

- Wet, windy and candlelit
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2008 07:36:31 -0400
Not really candle lit, but the electric has been out since last night (with a HUGE NOISY generator that is not doing anything that I can see. Luckily, I still have dial up and some juice in the computer.
We had gusts over 40 mph last night, intense blasts of rain. But everything was SLAM BAM then dead calm. Very odd.

Right now it is calm. We'll see what happens next. I think Nana is going to go on its way, leaving us 98 to keep things happening...



--
Save What's Left!

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Description: GIF image

- A little update
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2008 21:24:12 -0400
We had some moments late this afternoon, with huge gusts of wind and rain. I was a bit worried about the Cat Who Isn't Mine, as I am housesitting for friendsl taking care of their two dogs and two cats, that CWIM would be out in some really bad weather. So after her feed and some scratching comfort, I put her inside for the night, until I go home again in the wee hours to feed her, not wanting her to have to manage the elements (like she can't, she's TOTALLY capable...feral cat rehabbed, what was I thinking?). I made a stop at one of the local bars to pick up libations - nothing worse than being stuck inside without 'em - and the bar was busy. Pincho Joe, his wife, other friends, NO one worried about a thing, all laughing watching the wind blowing trees halfway down. "What is THAT?" a woman asked. I'm intensely telling her what *that* is and she's laughing saying, yeah, have a good night!
And now, it's quiet. The radar and sat show weather will be coming in but for the hours between, while I was stressing? Culebrense were enjoying being together on a long weekend afternoon, enjoying the excitement of some wild weather. Are they prepared? Yes they are. Have they done this so many times before? Yes they have. Do they have computers and watch weather maps? Highly doubtful. Do they know what's going on? Yes, they do. I drove home laughing, realizing I stillI have a lot to learn. And poor CWIM...I better drive down and let her out.
--
Save What's Left!
- Invest 98 to the left of us, Nana to the right, here we are stuck in the middle again
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:37:45 -0400
Fluky weather going on with even more crazy models out there. Head's up, kids!

--
Save What's Left!
- yikes update
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:27:19 -0400
Apparently the quake felt this morning (from BVI's to PR, so far as I've read) was 6.1!!

--
Save What's Left!
- A wet week ahead?
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Oct 2008 08:25:31 -0400
So it seems. We have not had the rains of the islands to our south but it looks like that will be our own weather soon enough.
This is a long weekend, with the Columbus Day holiday (remind me, WHY do we celebrate this guy?) plus election mode in full swing. Last night I could barely creep through the area around one party's headquarters as cars and cops clogged the road, the music blared, people spilled well into the street. Match that up with the location, next to two very popular local drinking spots and it was pretty chaotic. Maybe some rain wouldn't be a bad thing!
97 looks like it will go out to sea (she writes with a bit of knocking on wood).
It seems like the earth is, itself, shaking more than usual lately. We've had minor quakes every day for the last few days, in the 3.3 range. I personally attribute it to a wake up call reflecting the craziness of the world at present, but that's just me. Scientists would, perhaps, take another view. Go figure! 

Happy Saturday!

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- 97L goes orange
  • From: M J <mjstark at coqui.net>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Oct 2008 07:57:36 -0400
The alert on 97L has gone to orange, which suprised me a bit as it seems to my eyes to be more disorganized, but there is always more going on than meets my untrained eyes. Regardless, I bow to the weather weenies and will continue to watch *what happens next*. For some reason, the new models haven't come out yet, or not where I can find them. They should be out any time now.

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- And the earth moved...
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 8 Oct 2008 10:36:13 -0400
We had a 3.3 shake around midnight last night, 15 miles off of Culebra. I didn't feel it but I'll be asking around today to see if anyone I know did. It has been so still, I'd think it would make a bit of a ripple.

The water itself has had that glassy, glossy, mirage sort of look to it, where space is contracted and horizons are hard to make out. Weird, but I kind of like the visuals, even though the heat factor rises. A living Monet painting.

We are in the middle of two high pressure systems, hence the strange quality of weather at the moment. Maybe some rain later on? Apparently we got some last night but...I slept on. For absolutely no particular (not even seven particular) reason(s). That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Happy Birthday, dear Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn....

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Save What's Left!
- Marco and...
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2008 17:55:24 -0400
Out of the blue comes first an invest and very rapidly TS Marco, in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing to do with us, but always interesting how fast these systems can form. It is due to be over land soon, packing a bit of a wallop. Don't put away your storm prep bits yet!!!

And in the deep blue to our east is (yikes, the mosquito spray truck just went by, I got a little woozy there for a second..is this stuff legal?) an area of interest. Nothing expected but we know it's out there. Our island, as so many others, are saturated. Even though we are so much better off - despite our roads - than our close neighbors to the west and north. Supposedly shear is going to take care of this one.

In the meantime, enjoy the cooler evenings!


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Save What's Left!
- What the sat doesn't show
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 5 Oct 2008 20:54:46 -0400
but the radar does. We just got a slamming rain lasting 15 minutes or so, but, according to our local radar (because I can't feel - or see in the dark - a bit of wind, from the north to the east. I did hear it on the *wrong* windows but not enough wind to make it come in.

Well, good. The plants will be happy, and so will the mozzies, which are tormenting all of us. I stood in the middle of the bridge today with a friend, delighted to feel the wonderful breeze and NO mosquitos! Maybe I'll take my little tent and move there for the next days until they go away.

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Save What's Left!

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- Wait Five Minutes
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 4 Oct 2008 07:40:56 -0400
Good Morning,  This morning's first light was on fire.  Five 
minutes later it was "mellowed-out".
The last few days Culebra has had fantastic weather, super clear 
and pleasant breezes.
Every now and then we get a quick "typical tropical" shower, but it 
looks as those the main
part of the wave will pass south of us.

Enjoy,  William


Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/


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- Zoom
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Oct 2008 14:37:49 -0400
I woke up in the dark and woke up again in the dawn to weather that made me think, nothing really to write about today, another pretty day with blue skies, fluffy clouds, north swells...until about 30 minutes ago when suddenly a gust came that shook us up. A look at the sky that had been deep blue moments before showed a trail of almost black clouds from the east to the south, while north & west were still blue and fluffy. The temp dropped. Home now and looking at the radar, it seems this system is sliding by us to the south at a good clip and we may not get a drop of rain out of it...which, truthfully, is okay.

The trench that ate my car and has me walking again to town is the cause of daily road rage in my spirit, but it increases when the rain (or the water pipes that spring leaks due to incredible pressure changes..they haven't gotten it right yet) makes the deeply rutted (trenched) road a mad dance to navigate, by car as well as by foot. No one in a vehicle tries to hurry me in my *1 to the left, 2 to the right, 3 down the middle of the road cha cha cha* if they are behind or in front of me, either glad they aren't walking or stopping to give me a ride. I keep kind of hoping one of the off island workers will indicate even a flicker of impatience so I can vent, but they don't. I know it's ridiculous, but the combination of horrible road work, terrible construction practices and now the new one, via the word of one of the clinic nurses, an outbreak of hepatitis due to breathing in every foul thing that this digging (and not covering quickly enough) has provoked, gets me as uptight as a country girl driving in NYC (which I have experienced, but that passes fast enough on the here to there drive; this doesn't).

Something, obviously, needs to be done soon to alleviate this situation, but in the meantime, a passing system that doesn't drench the hillsides isn't a bad thing (since cisterns are full and plant life is thriving).

Argh. I think I used this to be my passing off island guy on a dozer...diffused. Thanks! One beautiful thing today...the pregnant horse that grazes in the now unused building's lawn across from my cart had her baby...so cute, so tiny, prancing after Mama on the grass...

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- Culebra; September Rainfall
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Oct 2008 07:36:14 -0400
Good Morning,  A rainy, drizzly morning in Culebra, a good time to 
catch up on all the data listings.  It looks to be an off/on rainy 
morning and then clearing in the afternoon.

For September Culebra received a total of 14.60 inches of rain.  We 
received a similar amount in 1996 from the system associated with 
"Hortense".  We now have a year-to-date total of 33.80 inches of 
rain.

Enjoy,  William


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- Fall has arrived?
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 30 Sep 2008 07:01:00 -0400
Yesterday was breezy and didn't feel nearly as humid and hot as the days after all the rain. Last night was cool enough to put on a light covering. It is dead flat calm out at the moment, but not heavy with humidity, just heavy with mosquitos. Enjoy




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- I love this
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 27 Sep 2008 15:00:23 -0400
"Le Sol est brille". A wonderful day for light" from Dominica...what a wonderful phrase! While the *light* today was rather spirit drenching with sweat, there are days I just want to gather up in my arms because of the light. Light that enfolds you, light you feel you could take a bite from, light that you want to package up and send to friends in the grey, cheerless places of their winter. I'll hold on to that phrase as I hold on to the light when sometimes it seems just too freakin' hot.

In a little while many of us will be gathering at the beach to give a farewell party to a dear friend who is heading back to America, for all the various and valid reasons one does that (or England or Europe or Australia or where ever our myriad band gets here from). There will be excellent food, being cooked and packaged as I write, great libations, lots of goodies (which I'm sure Mary will have fun figuring out how to pack and ship), stories we've heard and stories we've not heard, swimming (someone will be the designated at the moment drink and cigarette bringer through the gentle waves) and woven in with all, much laughter and maybe a few tears.
When I first moved to the islands (St. Croix) I made friends with a couple that had been there for years. I had no reason to think they wouldn't be there for years more. Being the unsettled sort that I was, I was usually gone long before I had time to miss anyone where I lived...I missed them later on, when I was the one gone. But my traveling feet were, slightly, slowing down and I'd been there a couple of years. Then the couple announced they were leaving. I was devastated. They had been among the first to reach out to me in a funky wonderful but oh so different place where I had moved and knew no one...they were mainstays for so many...how COULD they be leaving?

And then another friend told & taught me about the transient nature of islands. How people come and people go and enjoy them while you know them, because tomorrow they might be gone. Gone didn't mean dying (though we have a lot of that), it simply meant, moving on to the next adventure. And that explained a lot...how people could be kind without being wide open until they found out if you were going to stick around for more than six months...about how we hug and kiss a lot, even if we see each other all of the time (once, when I was managing a hotel, I took a guest downtown and he said, oh my! you seem to know everyone, how long have you been away?  I looked at him with a duh _expression_ and then it clicked...this was NOT normal behaviour...I told him, oh, I saw most of them a couple of days ago...that's just how we are).

So Mary will go, and the space of her will not be filled in, though others will come along. Who will ever make me a birthday platter of sashimi like that again? No one!!! Who will let me borrow great clothes when I have to dress fancy in America? Who will always look like a million bucks among the rest of us slobs (ok, we're not exactly slobs, but we're not Mary)? Ah, Mary, we'll miss you! But until we have to, party game ON!

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Save What's Left!
- Kyle
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 25 Sep 2008 16:05:29 -0400
And now, the infamous 93L has a name and its name is Kyle. Sort of a weird feeling inside me, that I'm glad it has a name because of all the destruction done, maybe it will be remembered, rather than written off by the *big world* as something that oh yeah, happened to destory lives, homes, livestock, crops on islands...uh, somewhere. Yes, I have a bit of an attitude about this. Such as with Ike. Do I disparage the horror of what happened in Texas? Not a bit of it...barrier islands are full of crazy people such as myself. But the islands that were devastated by Ike were, once it hit Texas, a 'sad bit of news'. People on the mainland CAN evacuate. And yes, a loss of a home is huge! But...there are some differences here and they bother me. When you are born to an island (and I grew up on a Florida barrier island, I was not born to the VI's or Culebra, living here is my choice), this IS your home. Most locals do not have homes built on the beach, they know better. But if your island is small (and relatively speaking, they are all small, but some are smaller than others) you are close to the water, regardless.
What is the point here? Nothing really, just that...what is a big hoop and holler on the mainland is often just reality in the islands. How help comes differs wildly. I'm of the help yourself and your neighbor belief, but then, I've always been a little silly that way.

One of my daughters took this pic while we were all in the mountains of North Carolina at my brother's extremely cool and very rustic cabin out in the middle of...somewhere. She entitled it Hollering at the Mountains. I guess that you can't teach an old hollerer new tricks, no matter where she is. I'll keep hollering (though at home they just call it MJ being MJ).

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- Peeking out...is it really gone?
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Sep 2008 07:52:20 -0400
I thought maybe the universe had shifted when I realized that some aspect of 93L was headed back our way. Was that the faint beating of drums I was hearing, keeping Haiti from yet another disaster? All I knew was that the sun went away, the clouds rolled back in. The sat loop showed that I was not crazy (well, at least that my eyes and brain are still fairly well connected). Curacoa and Aruba saw it too...I mean, they are part of the A B C's, how can they not be logical, orderly observations??

The rain started, I went and closed the *normal* window, a creature of habit, when it started coming in sideways through the two windows I close every 3 years when it rains on the wrong side. Lightning, thunder, smashing rain and then no phone, no computer - which lasted until this morning. Oh woe is me. Not. Here is what is happening on the big island that keeps perspective intact.

From the obs of a San Juanisto I trust to get it right:
Here are the highlights of all of what is going on in Puerto Rico:

1-Maximun rainfall total=Patillas,26.5 inches.
2-513 families in refuges.
3-17 schools are being used as refuges.
4-36,000 without water.
5-5,916 without power.
6-37 roads destroyed.
7-5 deaths.
8-Agriculture suffers heavy losses.

Yes, it will all get better again, as islands and locals do if they survive. I do think I might see if there is someone who would fund a bumper sticker saying "Heavy rains? Don't drive, stay alive" I know sometimes it's a desperate attempt to escape rising floodwaters, but sometimes it's sheer defiance of using common sense. A car is not a tank, even if it's an SUV. The power of water is beyond the average person's understanding unless they live near a dry creek or small riverbed that suddenly is in full roaring power, carrying away animals and trees...and cars...and people.

Anyway. The sun is shining. I'm hearing all the noise that the rains had silenced, trucks and the school bus, going about their regular work morning. There is a ripple on the incredibly ugly brown waters of the bay and I squelch down my anger at bad building practices that make a pretty house (or an ugly one) and ruin what the people moved here for because they don't want to pay for Paradise, just for Self. Oops, that isn't too squelched down is it?
Time for another cup of tea and then to make my way to town, to MAYbe opening the cart. Having an enforced extra week of holiday was not in my plan, but I did get more hot sauce made and that is good! And the cart, which Mark miraculously did get a coat of varnish, looks darn spiffy! If I ever figure out how to deal with E18 on my camera, I'll share a view.



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Save What's Left!
- System 93 Backs Up
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Sep 2008 07:34:29 -0400
Good Morning

Last night #93 decided to do a "Lenny" and backup and come again at 
us from the SW.
Another 0.70 inches of rain, for a total of 8.20 inches from this 
unwelcome guest.
The old saying that after three days fish and visitors start to 
stink applies here!

We do have some sun and broken clouds this AM.    William

Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/


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- Mas Lluvia
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 12:19:34 -0400
Good Afternoon,  With a drizzly rain all night and a good downpour 
this morning from the last of #93 (we hope), Culebra received 0.60 inches to 
add 
to our 6.90 inches to make an even 7.5 inches of rain associated 
with this system.  Lots of runoff continues and the dry creeks are 
full and flowing out to the bay.

Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/


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- Wow!
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 08:06:59 -0400
The morning went from dead calm to dark to slamming rain in less than half an hour. The temp has dropped 4 degrees in the last five minutes, maybe seven minutes. But the system is moving fast. Just quite unexpected...well, ok, I was asleep and that means NOT watching the radar...usually.

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Save What's Left!
- Culebra Rainfall, System #93
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2008 07:41:18 -0400

Good Morning,

Another 3.10 inches of rain through the night, we did not slide down the hill 
much to my amazement last night.  A total of 6.9 inches thus far for this pesky 
system.  I moved my chickens to higher ground this morning.  It is still 
spitting and sprinkling, but hopefully is moving off today.  This felt very 
much like a hurricane without the heavy wind.  Not much sleep last night.  

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- #93 Culebra Rainfall
  • From: "William Kunke" <wkunke at verizonmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 21 Sep 2008 17:28:32 -0400
Good Afternoon,  In a 24 hour period Culebra has received 3.80 
inches of rain, most of the heavy stuff came during the night time 
hours last night.  We have had some heavy off/on showers during the 
day.  All of this rain came on top of already saturated ground, so 
we are having a heavy runoff.  Our normally dry creek bed is really 
roaring and the bay is brown.  After this system moves off they will 
name it "Kyle".

William

Bill's Daily Notes & Photos:
http://islandculebra.livejournal.com/


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- Just in
  • From: MJ <caribemj at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 21 Sep 2008 10:53:24 -0400
This is from 10:30

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER OR