Post-tropical Cyclone Fiona

- as issued by NHC/TPC -

| home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive

TOOLS: distance | closest point | storm-centered image and loop |

Skip to: public advisory (en Español) - discussion - wind speed - forecast/advisory


Public Advisory:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

...FIONA IS FINISHED, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 64.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona
was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 64.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts.  The low should gradually weaken over the next
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Discussion:
TCDAT1  
  
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016  
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016  
  
Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more  
organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation  
and no organized deep convection.  Thus, Fiona no longer meets the  
requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.  
The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the  
latest Dvorak estimates.  While wind shear is forecast to decrease,  
the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not  
likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions.  In  
addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit  
any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this  
time.  The low should move northwestward into a break in the  
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  23/1500Z 26.1N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  24/0000Z 26.6N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1200Z 27.5N  67.8W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 28.4N  69.1W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 29.0N  69.9W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 29.5N  71.5W   20 KT  25 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
  
$$  
Forecaster Blake
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016               
1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    


Forecast/Advisory:

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016
1500 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  64.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  64.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  64.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.6N  66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N  67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.4N  69.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N  69.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N  71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N  64.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


products older than 1 day are not shown

Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive