Tropical Storm Fred

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Public Advisory:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 36.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 36.5 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A
turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is
forecast by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Fred is expected to become a remnant low
on Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Aviso Público:

TORMENTA TROPICAL FRED ADVERTENCIA NUMERO   21                   
CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL       AL062015          
TRADUCIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR     
1100 PM AST JUEVES 3 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2015

...FRED MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE SOBRE EL ESTE DEL 
ATLANTICO...


RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC
--------------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.0 NORTE 36.5 OESTE                                
CERCA DE 915 MI...1470 KM AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE 
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH...65 KM/H              
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H 
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MILIBARES...29.68 PULGADAS  


VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------    
NO HAY VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS EN EFECTO

  
DISCUSION Y PRONOSTICO DE 48 HORAS
----------------------------------                                   
A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL 
FRED ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 
36.5 OESTE. FRED SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 
MPH...19 KM/H...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE 
HASTA EL SABADO. SE PRONOSTICA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE Y UNA 
DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION TARDE EL SABADO. 
 
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM POR 
HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE 
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE FRED SE TORNE EN UN 
REMANENTE DE BAJA PRESION EL VIERNES. 

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70 
MILLAS...110 KM...DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARES...29.68 
PULGADAS. 


PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA ADENTRO
---------------------------------
NINGUNO.

 
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------                                           
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA SERA A LAS 500 AM AST.


Discussion:
TCDAT1  
  
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015  
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015  
  
Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong  
westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35  
kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B  
pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters,  
the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred  
is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the  
remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in  
about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable  
environment, but this is uncertain.  
  
The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a  
little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the  
overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair  
amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will  
recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude  
westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted  
a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the  
initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is  
largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model  
consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS,  
GEFS mean, and HWRF.  
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
  
INIT  04/0300Z 22.0N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH  TS
 12H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD
 24H  05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH  TD...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH  TD...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  
$$  
Forecaster Brennan
Note: Storm classification added by stormcarib.com
TD=TROPICAL DEPRESSION; TS=TROPICAL STORM; CAT-1=CATEGORY-1 HURRICANE...


Wind Speed:
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  


Forecast/Advisory:

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  36.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  36.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  36.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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