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- - - 2008 Hurricane Season - - -
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- action
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:12:28 -0700 (PDT)
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Wind still blowing hard somewhere around 25-30 knots with fairly consistant rain since my last post. Most of the island has been having power cuts recently as the public utilities has gotten it totally wrong. At the moment nobody is sure if their power is out due to load shedding or downed lines. It has been a pretty bad night and continues to blow very hard. The radar looks like the rain is moving south and we may have some ease soon, but to me it looks like this may be the first all day rain event of 08. Don't even think about going off shore in a boat. Some of the islands haven't gotten this bad weather yet, but you put the sat maps in motion and i think you will see that the Caribbean from PR to Aruba are having a strange weather event at the moment. Stay inshore even if it looks good where you are! September is such a slow month for business and today was
going to be a busy one for my boats. We can't get upset about this too much.... it's out of our control. The old man (without power) says many tree branches down and way too much rain. My mom living a few miles from the airport had two windows self destruct in the night. There are pros and cons to not having storms hitting you that frequently, and i think this little one is giving people the heads up. I was totoally amazed how much my sloop was moving around inside Jolly Harbour last night. Can't imagine what it would be like in a hurricane. It's gotta come out the water if we get one! I was happy to see that there have only been 14 hurricanes in the northern Caribbean since 1852 during the month of September according to weathercarib.com. Images attached are of radar at this hour.
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- it's 3 am do you know where your kids are?
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 01:06:42 -0700 (PDT)
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well its now 4 am and for one hour i have been on and off my boats here in jolly harbour tightening up lines, dropping awnings, moving fenders and getting wet. WE have had some pretty solid wind gusts that must have been over 40 knots. radar shows rain over all these nearby islands and you can see the lightning..... I am sure there will be boats in trouble around antigua tonight as this was unexpected for many people.
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- get the "humbrella"
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:02:47 -0700 (PDT)
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has anyone taken a look at windguru and the sat maps today?
Wow!!! I am hoping they are totally wrong because this saturday is International Coastal Cleanup Day and we want to go boating to one of the offshore islands and find some trash. This rain forecast must be wrong.... right? Check the image attached from windguru:
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- ATLANTIC
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 11:47:53 -0400
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IN SPITE OF ALL THE TERRIBLE DESTRUCTION TO OUR WEST WE
HAVENT HAD A SINGLRE TRUE CAPE VERDE STORM
AS YET FOR THE SEASON.
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- migrants found dead off antigua
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:37:34 -0700 (PDT)
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a sad story today here in Antigua with a boat being found close to shore with seven or more dead bodies on board. Reports are that there was one Mali passport on the boat and that all had been dead for some time. There was a similar story from Barbados back in June 2006 and after having a quick search it looks as though hundreds meet their fate this way while trying to get to the Canaries each year. Some 30,000 make it though. Check this link. http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/jan2007/immi-j04.shtml
It's a shame that none of those tropical waves gave them enough water along their terrible journey to keep them alive. Sad sad sad.
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- IKE
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Fri, 5 Sep 2008 19:00:56 -0400
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Nothing much out here on the Eastern front BUT the Turks
and Caicos and the Bahamas are about to get it again. Have a look at the last
posting `from the Turks and you’ll see why Ike is bad news for
them.
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- TODAYS WEATHER
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- From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 4 Sep 2008 09:39:07 -0400
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Today it is sunny in Antigua after heavy rains the last couple of days.... But gusty winds are blowing from the South - at least on the east coast..... .not our normal wind direction.
There are SEVERAL GOOD links below to check out the weather...
On the first link below Antigua is just above the "butterfly shape island.. Guadeloupe... Antigua is located at 17.1 ... Hurricane Ike is to our north and is expected to not effect Antigua, but our MET OFFICE is still asking we pay close attention.
Tropical storm Josephine is about 2000 miles to our east at 14.2 and is also expected to go north, but again, we are closely watching the storm which will possibly become a hurricane in the next day or two.
There is also a "blob" quite far SOUTH which is of concern. As we all know we are in the most active month of the hurricane season - SEPTEMBER - so the rule is pay close attention and be sure we have our "hurricane check list" to hand. I just doubled checked all of my plastic tarps which I use to cover things up as water damage, which has been as bad as structural damage in the past, for me.... Is prevented that way!
Remember the old time hurricane saying...
SEPTEMBER REMEMBER ... 
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- black sky morning
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 3 Sep 2008 05:07:30 -0700 (PDT)
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sitting in departure lounge at airport waiting for my flight to san juan and
the sky is black in the east. radar martinique shows heavy rain there and I
read the same will be found in san juan. glad these are just rain storms here
today. forecast for the tropical storms look good for antigua and barbuda with
everything still tracking safely north of us. fingers crossed.
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- Rain and Thunderstorms
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- From: Steve Coghlan <steve at candw.ag>
- Date: Tue, 02 Sep 2008 15:24:39 -0400
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Today started out nicely but the weather has deteriorated into the
afternoon. Heavy rain caused some minor flooding in some areas and the
sky is overcast. The forecast calls for more of the same, due to feeder
bands from Hanna affecting the islands.
We cannot complain, as we have been hoping for rain for some time now.
Plants are loving it!
We need to keep an eye on Ike and Josephine. These systems should both
pass to the North of the islands if they follow the projected path from
the NHC.
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- Watching
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- From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
- Date: Mon, 1 Sep 2008 18:10:34 -0400
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AS WE ALL KNOW THINGS ARE "HEATING UP"  AND HAVE WE HAD RAIN RAIN RAIN ( NOT COMPLAINING! )
THE new systems out there are "attention getters" and we will all be watching. Meanwhile, MISSISSIPPI is my HOME STATE ( all be it 30 years ago)... So watching with concern with this latest hurricane! Will certainly stay "tuned in" and glad I planned NOT TO TRAVEL this month.
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- Atlantic becoming 'SUPERACTIVE'
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- From: Allan D <top_shatta_ad2002 at hotmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Sep 2008 14:47:07 -0400
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A very recent field of research in climatology includes the interpretation of cyclic climatological alterations. This includes the rise and fall of seasonal hurricane or climatic activities over a period of time also know as oscillations. Some scientists believes that within a hurricane season, there's also such oscillations where there may be a sudden burst of activities. We are currently in one such 'spikes'. As you may have noticed, within the last seven days, there's been over 12 cases of active storms or potential disturbances appearing in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions at one time or another. We currently have six such areas of interest with possibly 4 active named storms all churning at the same time by mid week. In my opinion, the Atlantic is now in a 'superactive' state. Majority of the ACE is acheived during these periods. It should be noted that having more than 4 named storms at any one time in a hurricane season is quite rare.
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- and another one comes
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Sep 2008 03:38:41 -0700 (PDT)
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The eastern Caribbean has been very lucky this season so far, but we all know that Sept is the busy month and it looks like it won't be different this year. I think that if you are not checking the forecasts every morning then you are going to be caught out. I see that thing coming off Africa and I will be checking the weather more than once today!!!
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- rain, severe lightning thunder
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 07:23:40 -0400
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For the past 3 hours we have been pounded with thunder and
blessed with rain.
It has eased a bit now with some brightening off to the
south but we had quite a thunderstorm this morning!
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- hanna
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:49:46 -0400
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Thunder, lightning and RAIN, all heavy here, no wind to
speak of.
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- a day late!
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Sun, 24 Aug 2008 06:45:22 -0700 (PDT)
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ok so i cancelled my sailing plans for yesterday because of all the rain predictions to do with Invest 94 and it was totally sunny as usual. We had a nice dinner indoors last night just in case 94 wobbled north...nothing. We decided to move our day of relaxing boating to today as forecast looked so nice. That thunder i hear coming in from the South getting closer and closer isn't supposed to be here ToDaY!!!! We are supposed to be going sailing. It's sunday... the main boating and beaching day here in Antigua. :(
The animated Radar shows a big band of rain coming over from GP but it does look like it will pass later today. Like the old cook at the hotel where i grew up used to say when it was raining. Eli, don't be vex.... it's God's work.
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- dusty but dealing with it.
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 05:07:49 -0700 (PDT)
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After some very hot days since our last tropical wave which eventually turned into Fay after it passed us, we are getting a good blast of trades now to cool things down. There is some hard core African dust around so we can't see any of the nearby islands at all and even our hills seem more distant. I guess this coupled with the wind sheer is kicking those tropical waves (invest 94 & 95) in the gut and preventing them from developing into anything other than a birthday cruise wrecking saturday!!! Anyway, i'd rather have my birthday cruise wrecked by some rain than by big big storm stress. All looks good to the East still. Tek it easy.
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- 92L
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- From: Steve Coghlan <steve at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 11:46:55 -0400
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The weather conditions in Antigua this morning
have been very hot and calm. Hardly a drop of rain so far, but the dark
clouds are building to the North and East and it is looking rather
ominous.
It appears as if 92L is "spooling up" just to the NE of Antigua. We may
be in for some thunderstorm activity, but it seems as if most of this
developing weather system will slide by to the North.
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- 92L
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- From: Steve Coghlan <steve at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 07:06:11 -0400
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Antigua experienced some welcome showers during the night, but the
expected thunderstorms and gusty winds have not yet materialized. The
latest satellite pictures indicate that the system is starting to become
better organized and shows us to be on the leading edge of the cloud
mass. All indications are that we could be in for a wet and stormy day.
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- Barbudaful
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at hotmail.com>
- Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:59:13 +0000
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Well the good news is that rain looks like its on the way for Barbuda and maybe us too. The bad news is there will probably be some strong squalls today and nobody here is expecting it at all. Hope all the boats are going to be ok. eli
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- strong tropical wave effects tonight and tomorrow still possible.
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:31:35 -0700 (PDT)
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Although this invest 92 seems to have a hard time deciding what to do it is looking like it may give Antigua and Barbuda a bit of action. My old man is flying from london to Antigua tomorrow and hates to fly. He has texted and called me a thousand times asking what's the 92 doing. I keep telling him ""dont worry about it'' because that is what he's been telling the boys in the back room since i was too young to be called a boy. Anyway, i think i may have to move my carriacou sloop later today because i think we may get some strong squalls. Check those anchors now if you can. Winds out of the north in true tropical conditions mode here. Windguru still saying nada about this one, but speaking about the next big one a week from today already. For now be safe. It never hurts. Check the huge change in models which put the growing 92 over barbuda later tonight:
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- Areas for concern
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2008 21:35:10 -0400
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There are two areas of concern by the NHC www.nhc.noaa.gov
, one just a bit off our coasts and a patch further out.
Will pay some attention to these over the next few days.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- yay! storms forecast to miss the caribbean
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2008 15:04:42 -0700 (PDT)
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winguru seems to be a step ahead of most of the models. They are now showing both storms missing the Caribbean. Hope this trend continues.
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- windguru says no
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2008 05:17:12 -0700 (PDT)
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Have I have come to trust windguru too much? They are not forecasting any hard core conditions for any of the Caribbean islands this week while all the other sites are saying we are in for some action. I usually put my $$ on windguru for these things and since they don't have winds for any of the islands then i am thinking those waves may not develop. I think when it comes to stuff like this though we have to prepare for the worst as anything else is just talk. Making plans to secure all the boats and other stuff today just in case.
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- NEXT SATURDAY
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- From: " " <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Sun, 10 Aug 2008 06:29:23 -0400
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WINDGURU IS FORECASTING 58KTS WIND FOR ANTIGUA NEXT
SATURDAY. IT GETS SERIOUS FROM HERE ON DOWN THE LINE
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- Rain!
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- From: Steve Coghlan <steve at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 08:51:42 -0400
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Antigua experienced some welcome showers last night and it looks like
more of the same today.
Presently, it is raining and breezy with the occasional sound of thunder
in the distance.
The plants are loving it, but Carnival fans are hoping for good weather
this weekend.
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- Wave
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 08:12:20 -0400
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When Antigua needs rain, two things need to be done,
either I wash my pickup or we have a Carnival.
The heavens opened up last night, this morning there was
quite a bit of lightning and thunder, which at some point
cut the power for a few hours.
Looking at the sat maps, we are under some large blobs, it
is still very overcast with a dark grey horizon. I think
it will be wet for another 24 hours or thereabouts. We
need the rain though, the yard was beginning to crack up
pretty badly. it also helps to cool down the sweltering
summer heat.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- cooling down a hot island.
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2008 03:42:59 -0700 (PDT)
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Today finally we have some rain. Looks like it will be a wet one for a change which is something we need at the moment for more reasons than one.
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- system near Cape Verde Is
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:08:52 -0700
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Here is
my thinking: At this point, I want to continue to monitor this system closely
over the next day or two and see if it continues to organize. I think this is
what the National Hurricane Center is doing too as they want to make certain
that this system is going to hold together for at least 24 hours before they
classify it as a tropical depression. My personal belief is that if this system
is still well organized tomorrow morning at this time, then I think you will
see an upgrade to a tropical depression. As for a future track and potential
intensification, it seems very likely that a general westerly track will occur
through this weekend with slow but steady organization and intensification,
given it doesn't fall apart over the next day or two, like the NOGAPS and UKMET
models are forecasting. This system is expected to encounter low shear over the
next 2 to 3 days, although dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures north
and west of the Cape Verde Islands may be a limiting factor. If convection can
keep developing over the surface low, this system could slowly intensify into a
tropical storm over the next few days. By late this weekend into early next
week, this system may encounter upper level shear as an upper-level low
pressure system is forecast to move southward and if this occurs, then any
strengthening that occurs would either stop or weakening would then occur.
It
should be noted that this system may track very close to the northern Leeward
Islands by Monday or Tuesday, so folks in the northern Leeward Island should
keep close tabs on this system. I will be monitoring this tropical disturbance
very closely and will keep you all updated.
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- 94L and a big slpotch
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:01:53 -0400
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It is nice to know that our southern Caribbean neighbours
did not suffer anything significant from 94L although I
havent seen any reports with regard to flooding if any.
Looking at the sat map, a big splotch just left the
African west coast with a 1004 milliBar low associated
with it. It is a little higher but will need to keep an
eye on this one. In light of the season jump starting,
there are four active storms globally, see list following,
the planet has come alive so this could be an interesting
(active) year.
ATLANTIC: TS Bertha
EAST PAC: Hurr ELIDAS and TS Fausto
WEST PAC: Typhoon KALMAEGI
Overcast today but some blue sky peeking out at the
moment, it is a bit warm though, that's the summer.
Have a good day all,
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- Antigua looking safe again
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2008 03:40:58 -0700 (PDT)
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Over the past 24 hours the forecasts seem to have changed again with ''Storm 94'' and now it shows Antigua and Barbuda getting little or no conditions from the blob which by then may still be just a depression if that. For now they are still calling it an ''invest''. According to windguru Martinique will get the strongest winds somewhere around 27 knots which is still just a week depression i guess. Anyway, we here in Antigua don't have to cancel boating plans just yet. Good news! The guidance models as seen in the attachment have it way south of us.
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- INVEST 94L
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 08:02:28 -0400
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94L is moving WNW, all of the models predict a Windwards
Is track but we need to all keep an eye on it.
The US Nay have put up a track on their site, although
their one day prediction shows it turning bit more NW,
still too early to tell yet.
Weather here is nice, there were some heavy showers last
night but sunny/cloudy this morning.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- forecasts cant make up their minds this time.
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:54:29 -0700 (PDT)
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All the storm prediction models for invest 94 have changed yet again thismorning. I suppose with all the computer models changing their minds the guru has also dramatically changed its forecast too with near normal conditions forecast for the rest of the week. Good news for us boaters if we are gonna put all our faith in that, BUT if you were only looking at windguru thismorning and not at the sat map of that massive invest then things would be more relaxed. I think this time windguru may have missed something. I do think we all need to be glued to the updates as they happen over the next 24 hours. It looks like somebody in the Caribbean will be feeling some major effects from this developing ''blob''. From the NHC: ''THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME
TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.''
eli
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- windguru does it again.
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:56:04 -0700 (PDT)
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A week before the stormy weather is forecast to hit windguru tells us about it before anyone else does. 42 knots now forecast for Friday! I hope this is as much as their forecast will go for this one. Keep an eye on this site for updates!
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- PAY ATTENTION
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- From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
- Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:37:35 -0400
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I DONT LIKE THE LOOKS OF THIS BIG RED BLOB AND IT IS QUITE FAR SOUTH!
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- windy rainy conditions forecast on windguru
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:23:25 -0700 (PDT)
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wow, has anyone seen windguru today? things looking pretty active on there. for those of u who dont know how to use windguru. check the blog link below.
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- weather in the caribbean for dummies
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at hotmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 9 Jul 2008 15:04:15 +0000
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For many people the best way to understand weather is to come here to Stormcarib and listen to reports from people who are actually on the ground. This will never change and is and excellent way of keeping in touch. Many people will go a step further and try to figure out not so much what is happening now but what they can expect tomorrow or the next day. Forecasting is a big part of this site too as its not just about reports on the ground but is also telling people what they can expect. In my business i keep getting emails from worried people wanting to know if its going to be sunny on their upcoming holiday. yahoo weather and weather.com use silly animated forecasts which tell people that it rains 365 days a year in antigua and that it is never sunny. All of us here know that is not the case but these simplified animated forecasts are flawed and i try to send people to windguru for a better idea of what to expect. Anyway, even after doing that i get emails from people telling me that they can't understand windguru. On my blog today i tried to make it as simple as possible. Please have a look. Tell me if you think i should change anything, but if it works then feel free to use the guide to explain to your grandma how windguru works. hahaha nice weather here in Jolly Harbour today after cancelling two boat rides after writing here yesterday. Was plenty of rain and thunder. The link to the specific blog is this one: http://antiguaisland.blogspot.com/2008/07/understanding-windguru-and-weather-in.html
Enjoy!
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- Thunder and much needed rain...
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- From: Alan B Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2008 07:36:33 -0430
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Was awoken this morning to very loud rumblings of thunder in the
distance.
It has been sunny hot and dry for a few days and I am sure the earth,
plants and farmers are quite happy today.
The sky was overcast on the way to work but you could see it beginning
to break with some blue patches visible towards the East.
BERTHA has grown to quite a little devil now at a CAT 3 packing winds
of 120mph, I hope this is not a sign of the season ahead.
Alan Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- blobbing
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- From: "elifuller " <elifuller at hotmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 8 Jul 2008 10:40:10 +0000
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hi guys, after my new dell had its motherboard 'mashup' I am on my HTC windows
phone checking weather. it works, but I am missing the big screen. anyway with
bertha far away from the caribbean, we are all happy to be safe here. some are
even more happy this am after hearing the rain and thunder from bed. a BLOB
which may be a bit of moisture associated with bertha is dumping some of the
wet stuff today. from the tiny maps on my phone it looks like it will dry up
before long, and I hope to send the boats out later.
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- Hurr BERTHA
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:39:36 -0400
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As predicted by the number crunchers, BERTHA did pass
usually by but it is July 7th and a tad bit early for a
hurricane based on history. While noting history, it was
also in 1996 that Tropical Storm BERTHA formed just off
the Antilles. See the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha
I remember that name because it was my birthday and there
was wind, rain and some misery (no power), this year she
is passing by again today but a little further out.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- HURRICANE BERTHA
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- From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
- Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2008 08:00:16 -0400
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Antigua is watching! ..... We have our first hurricane...  Fortunately for all of the islands BERTHA is already north of us ...
But certainly there may be land fall someplace! Makes me want to double check my hurricane supplies as the season "warms up". Otherwise, it is a beautiful day in "paradise".
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- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
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- From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
- Date: Fri, 4 Jul 2008 08:50:07 -0400
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| TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO just became BERTHA! But thank goodness predictions are to go north of the islands. Seems we will have an active time of it with these waves coming off the African coast. Meanwhile today is a beautiful day in Antigua and the American community is CELEBRATING JULY 4th... |
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- Wet day and TD2
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Thu, 03 Jul 2008 08:35:00 -0400
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Got up this morning to a very wet day, had quite a
downpour at around 6:50AM.
TD2 has just formed, although the models all carry it
north into the Atlantic, doesn't hurt to keep any eye on
it.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- HURRICANE SEASON
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- From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm at candw.ag>
- Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2008 09:13:01 -0400
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Well we have an early start to "paying attention" to what is coming off of Africa with the first system now . We always welcome  rain.. So wont mind if some of that comes with any clouds, But hopefully nothing else.
So it is "heads up" to evone to be prepared with INVEST 92 having been "born"! |
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- july 1 08
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2008 04:35:40 -0700
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STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
WAS
ADDED TO THE 01/06Z ANALYSIS ALONG 16W/17W S OF 18N
ESTIMATED
TO BE MOVING W 15 KT. A 1011 MB SFC LOW IS SITUATED
ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR 11N...VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION.
THIS WAVE IS RATHER VIGOROUS EXHIBITING WELL
DEFINED
CYCLONIC TURNING AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
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- predictions a week away?
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- From: "eli fuller" <elifuller at hotmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2008 07:20:42 -0400
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Each year the weather sites get more and more high
tech using such a huge set of complicated computer programs to make a final
prediction. A couple of the bigwigs are saying that next Monday we are in for
some action in the Eastern Caribbean. My prediction is slightly different. I
predict that we will be watching the east very carefully over the next few days
and will all be more relaxed after the this one and the first couple of big
systems fizzle or move out of our direction. That being said keep looking east
on those maps over the next few days. That cloud mass coming off Africa was
predicted........
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- JULY
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Sun, 29 Jun 2008 14:55:22 -0700
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WINDY,HOT,DRY,HAZY. EXCEPT FOR MARLIN FISHING, JUNE WILL NOT
BE MISSED.
JULY STAND BY
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- pic of Antigua - windy, cloudy
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- From: <eduardoluisgonzalez at hotmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2008 18:46:19 -0400
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6:45pm AST - Antigua by Hodges Bay...windy....some
rain....
-Eddie
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- wave?
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:55:17 -0700 (PDT)
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Yesterday i saw a report that despite there not being a wave shown on the official weather maps, there something like a wave coming. It was such a strange forecast on weathercarib.com. Anyway, windguru had been showing a huge spike in winds and rains for today. Some of us almost doubted the guru, but it would have been silly. Last night the winds blew hard and i am not sure but judging from the mess out front it must have been close to 30 knots. At the moment its blowing about 20-25 with some good squalls passing nearby. The rain did come as forecast but thankfully for my tour today...as the image from the Guadeloupe Radar shows the squalls are not that big and don't last that long. Not exactly fishing weather but once you are inside the barrier reefs it will be some fun out there.
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Attachment:
TFFR-400KM-20080623113500.png
Description: PNG image
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- Cool and rain
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- From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
- Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2008 10:47:20 -0400
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A passing wave has brought quite a bit of thunder and
shower activity this morning.
While there small patched of blue, it is overcast for the
most part, the rain has brought much needed water and
indeed has cooled down the island a bit after some rather
hot sweltering days.
Alan B Scholl
www.digitalphoto.ag
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- wind, rain, thunder in ANU
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- From: <eduardoluisgonzalez at hotmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2008 07:33:45 -0400
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As Eli mentioned below, we finally "got some
action".
Eddie
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- action
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- From: "eli fuller" <elifuller at hotmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 20 Jun 2008 06:32:02 -0400
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Well finally all the storm junkies got some action.
Last night we had some fantastic thunder and lightnng doing its best to keep me
awake. I had two full boats booked for today to being some relief to what has
been a very slow month. Now the only relief is going to be in the form of water
in our cisterns The whole island was begging for it, and here it is. Last night
we had some good rain down here in Jolly Harbour and from the looks of the RADAR
and the hills outside (see pic), we are in for some more today. I feel bad
for the people booked on my tour, but it looks as though it may be a day better
spend indoors. Sunshine forecast for tomorrow again, but the ship will be gone.
Some 25-28 knot winds forecast for Monday too which won't be fun for boating but
may be the right thing for some windsurfing action. ACTION!
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Description: JPEG image
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- Update
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- From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
- Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2008 09:25:37 -0700
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BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N44W. DURING THE NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS FLARE UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-45W. THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A VERY GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE WAVE POSITION. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY.
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- plenty in the atlantic
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2008 05:41:06 -0700 (PDT)
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Plenty of DUST. This African dust event is stretching from the Caribbean past the Cape Verdes and into Africa. Asthma sufferers and all the others who get troubled by excessive dust will not be happy over the next 10 days, but people afraid of bad storms can be a little more relaxed. All of this dust will do its best to make sure that the very good looking tropical wave out there doesn't get any stronger, and if that doesn't do the job there is also a 40 knot wind shear that's gonna do some fighting with it too. The good looking tropical wave is still something to keep an eye on, but for now it looks like we will be enjoying another weekend of boating. Check this image of the dust from yesterday:
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Description: JPEG image
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- windguru is at it again
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- From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 1 May 2008 07:21:33 -0700 (PDT)
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Every now and then Windguru makes wacky predictions days and days ahead of the predicted event. So far, they have been wildly accurate with everything from hurricanes, to ground swell, to strong winter winds. Today they are talking rain and lots of it. If you are planning a day at the beach this weekend you may want to have a look at the guru on www.windguru.com I kinda feel for the Antigua Sailing Week awards and final party (and our fishing trip this weekend), but at least the yachts will get a good washing. I always like to leave a photo on these posts. Here is one taken by my girlfriend, and it shows me and my crew racing the brand new carriacou boat we just got "Ocean Nomad" in fine weather 10 days ago at the Antigua Classic Yacht Regatta:
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