August 28th still no action.......but actually I think thats bad news because more times than not, a tranquil August translates into a tempestuous September. So i'll wait and see.

N.B.     I think the relevant authorities should consider shortening the hurricane season from the usual June - November to just the month of September alone.   (just a suggestion)  

Just before I go, I think that squall line/tropical wave just moving off Africa worths mentioning.

 

 

 

Its all quiet for now....... Dean is near hurricane strength. Winds 70mph. Should become extra-tropical tommorow....... A disturbance is in the western Gulf of Mexico. The recon will investigate the situation tommorow if necessary........ A tropical wave is passing through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Very little shower activity if any should occur over the islands tonight and tommorow. The system is interacting  with an upper level low to its north and this low is producing unfavourable upper level winds. We had a downpour this afternoon in the north of the island which caused very very minor flooding in some of the most vulnerable parts of the city Castries....... A weak wave is near 49w. When this system was coming off Africa last week Thursday (23rd), I thought that this would be tropical storm Erin by now but this system is far away from a tropical storm in fact, doesn't look too good right now and i'm not even gonna pay attention to it as it nears the Windward Islands on Thursday....... A potent disturbance is near 10n 25w and a surface low has formed and thunderstorms are begining to hold together unlike any other system this far east so far this season. This could be a depression in a couple days but its moving every slowly westwards so we have ample time to watch him......... Apart from that, there's a new wave about to exit Africa and a strong concentration of thunderstorms over central Africa that i've been watching for 2 -3 days now as it moves westwards. Should move off the coast by the 29th of this month......................

Its already August 26th and not 1 hurricane has formed as yet. But thats not unusual. In 1993, the first hurricane (hurricane emily) didn't form until  the 27th and in 1998 hurricane Bonnie didnt form until the 25th but by the end of the season, 14 named storms developed. So we cant say thats its going to be a quiet year. Already, we've had 4 landfalling tropical storms...............This is today's weather picture.............

Look at that thing about 200miles east of the Islands. This tropical wave has gotten better organized today with lots of thunderstorms popping. If this trend continues, a weak low level circulation could form before it reaches the Islands tonight. So at least, anybody from Grenada northward could experience heavy rains and gusty winds starting tonight. The weather is sooooo beautiful here in St Lucia, who would ever guess that such a big plum of thunderstorms is just east of us...... Other than that, another wave is closely following it near 40w and will be monitored closely for signs of development over the next couple days. 

 

A very potent disturbance is pulling off Africa today, its very large and well organized so it needs to be monitored closely.  

 

 

Over the last 2 -3 yrs, the most active part of the season has shifted to September/October and not July - October. Example 1998. The first named storm didn't form until late July but by the end of the season, 14 storms were named. One of them being Georges.......... Over the last few weeks, I've been tracking all the waves as far east as central Africa and as we are entering September, those clusters of thunderstorms there have been getting more concentrated........ Now there are few disturbances in the atlantic to be watched closely........ Firstly, this wave near 55w had a closed circulation on the 24th when is was located near 10n 48w but it has lost most of its shower activity and the closed circulation is no longer evident in satellite imagery. However, it will affect us today. I think its energy is being sucked up by to larger and more potent tropical waves further east........ Another large system is near 10n 40w and it seems to be getting better organized. Thats the general trend this year. They wait until 35 - 45 west to start cranking. I'll be watching this one closely. It should move into the Islands by Tuesday - Wednesday..........Yet another vigorous wave is coming off the coast with a broad area of low pressure associated with it. A fourth one near 5w over West Africa. And finally a strong cluster of thunderstorms can be spotted over central Africa .......... The wave train is in full swing. bye......        

Looks like its going to be a very busy weekend for weather forecasters. There are several areas which have to be watched closely especially in the Atlantic...... 1) Dean is making a come back......... 2) The tropical wave located near 11n, 49w has gotten much better organized over the last 6hrs. Convection has burst out near the center like a nuclear bomb this afternoon. This could be a tropical storm by the time it moves into the Windwards on Sunday. A ship report at 5am today indicated NW winds just west of the axis. This means that a low level circulation is forming.......  3) This wave passing south of the Cape Verdes today already has a broad low level circulation but no thunderstorms YET. This system may begin to acquire thunderstorms by the time it passes 35w. That should be in 24 - 36 hrs time. A single convective cell is still holding together near the center.......... 4) As soon as I looked at the satellite photos near Africa this afternoon, that huge thing coming off the coast got me scared. I got goosebumps. I don't know, but I just have a bad feeling about this wave. It could be upgraded to a depression as soon as it exits the coast............ The general pattern this year is for the tropical waves to wait until they reach 40 west before the get better organized. Chantal, Dean and now here comes another. So the hot spot seems to be the Atlantic west so 40w so far this year. Thats not good news for the Islands. They hardly recurve that far west instead they move towards us when they form so far west  ........... I'll keep you posted if anything develops............

All the waves which looked threatening during the day have all become disorganized late this evening. But I am still watching this one near 12n 45w. It could be in the Windwards by Saturday night as a big rain maker. Other than that there another wave closely behind at 35w and the big one which moved off Africa last night looks weak now. But it has alot of potential for further development over the weekend as it moves westwards. 

TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS/ITCZ......

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 33W/34W IS NOW ALONG 34W/35W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AXIS WITHIN ITCZ FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 34W-38W. WAVE HAS LITTLE OR NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE N OF ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 47W/48W IS REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY E TO ALONG 45W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SW/NE ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NOW APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. DEVELOPING AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-47W. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF DEAN...LIES ALONG 20N72W-26N65W MOVING NW 15-20 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL SWIRL. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION AS IT ACCELERATES NWD. AN EARLIER RECON FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 42 KTS WITHIN SOME OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  25-30 KT WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 86W/87W IS NOW ALONG 87W/88W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED HOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF W CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-84W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA THIS MORNING IS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.............
That thing coming off Africa today doesn't look good at all. This is the largest wave of the season so far and conditions are favourable for development. So I think that this system will become tropical storm Erin by weekend. Forecast track is generally westward towards the Caribbean and it could be a dangerous weather system (tropical storm/hurricane) by the time it begins to approach the islands in 5 - 7 days. This wave looks similar to the one which started Georges in 1998 so we better look out. Other than that, there's a wave near 30 w and one near 48w that looks better organized today. It should be in the islands on Saturday. We need to watch this system closely. Also Dean is now and open wave. He didn't even  live for 24 hrs. Some minor damage occured in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. But they seem to be alright. Good to hear.

Dean continues to threaten the extreme northern Caribbean with 60mph winds and rain. I hope my friends in the Leewards and Virgin lslands are ok tonight. However as this wave which started Dean approached the islands yesterday, a change in wind direction ( west at 15mph ) and some rain occured here in St Lucia. Other than that there's nothing to talk about.........Chantal's history. And there are no significant disturbances in the Atlantic. Just a couple waves. One near 45w  and the other near 28w. But its not until I look at the west coast of Africa  where I spot a significant tropical wave moving off the coast tonight. I'll be watching this thing closely. Afterall its late August. This system has an outstanding chance to become the first true Cape Verde storm of the season as far as climatology is concerned.    

Look at that recent burst of thunderstorms just east of Dominica and Guadeloupe in association with this strong wave. It looks like this system will be impacting areas from Dominica northward and St Lucia will be spared the ravages of another severe weather system in less than a week. Today we had a wet day. By 2pm the winds had turned from the ESE to the WNW - WSW at 11mph and was gusting to about 20 mph. At about the same time the strongest wind gust were blowing, some heavy showers came pouring. This cause the balcony on the western side of the house (facing the beautiful Caribbean Sea) to get drenched. ( Winds dont usually blow from the west down here ). And ofcourse there was alot of thunderstorm activity. ( This usually happens when hurricanes pass north of St Lucia and the outtermost rain bands pass over us ). Westerly winds were also experienced over Martinique to the north. With this info, one can conclude that this tropical wave/low is trying hard to close off its circulation. For the least, heavy rain and strong wind gust will spread over the Northeastern Caribbean over the next 24 - 36 hrs....... Also, Chantal has been downgraded to a depression once again....... and there are about 3 or 4 waves tranversing the Atlantic this evening but the most impressive is yet to move off Africa  

Very very cloudy in St Lucia with ESE winds at 8-12mph. Looks like another rainy day here. Same conditions should prevail over the Windwards ..... That wave near 12n 49w has gotten disorganized over the last 6 - 12hrs but this system still has the potential to become Dean in 2-3 days as it nears the Antilles. Another disturbance is near 10n 39w, and a couple others over Central Africa.

Today is the official start of my hurricane season (august 20th). Any season with landfalling storms before that date can be considered and active season. This year we've had 3......
 The wave near 12 n 45w looks interesting. Its taking a similar track as Chantal did about 5 day ago. Its an outstanding candidate to become tropical storm Dean in less than three days and this system should be in the islands by Wednesday or Thursday. If i were located anywhere from Barbados northward to the Virgin Islands, i'll want to keep a close eye on this developing cyclone. Also, there's another wave following it at 10n 35w. Its showing increased thunderstorms this evening. And finally a  new wave will move off Africa today Monday. Not forgetting Chantal ....... she's very disorganized but has sustained wind at 65mph. Last position 17.1n 83.5w  ......325miles ESE of Chetumal Mexico. moving WNW at 18 mph.  

Im looking at a large tropical wave right along 10 north ,40 west with alot of thunderstorms with it and a broad low level circulation but no one seems to be worrying about it but me. Not even the National Hurricane Center. So i guess its not a threat at the moment. Lets see how it behaves in the next couple of days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2001

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

What a beautiful afternoon it is in St.Lucia. WOW!!..... I haven't seen this kinda of weather all week. The sun is out in full bloom, nice breeze coming from the ESE at 15mph and a cloudless sky. The sea is back to normal and fishermen are heading back out to sea after they missed out on a catch yesterday. Not too many days in the huricane season we get this kinda weather down here. Anyway, it was just earlier ths morning that it was raining continuously with strong southerly winds but that has changed...........During the passage of Chantal the met office at the Hewanorra International Airport in the south of the country recorded a peak wind gust of about 28mph and about 30.5mm (1.18 inches) of rain in the last 24hrs. And the met office at the George F. L. Charles Airport in the north had peak gusts at about 30mph and about 42.0mm (1.64 inches) of rain. No flooding, no wind damage just temporary drought relief. That rain was very much welcomed by local farmers. At 11 am, Chantal was upgraded to a depression again because the air force recon found a tiny closed circulation, sustained winds at 30kts (35mph) and pressures at 1010mb. TS force winds were reported in a couple islands lastnight. It looks like Jamaica will be threatened by this system tomorrow as probably a strong TS or a weak huricane. So Jamaica look out..........Looking eastwards, theres a wave just behind Chantal located near 10n 53w and will move into the southern windwards tonight. Another is near 35west, one near 25west and looks to be getting better organized. Finally a strong system is coming off the Afican coast today near 9north 15 west. 

Chantal is nothing but a vigorous tropical wave now. All watches and warnings discontinued for all the islands........Sorry for not posting any reports earlier. I had to shut my pc down cuz of bad lightning. We had alot of rain/thunder/lightning/wind about 7pm. Its now 10:15 and the rains have restarted. The satellite shows alot of deep convection over St Lucia so it looks like a very stormy night. The thunder/lightning is starting again but this time alot more serious than earlier. Wind right now from the east at 20 mph gusting to 30mph. Chantal passed right over Barbados earlier this evening but there were no reports of  TS force winds nor did our correspondants from Barbados report any significant weather. Thats good news. We're in pretty good shape here also nothing significant to talk about as yet except for the lightning which was fascinating to watch. Latest position 13n , 61w  or over St Vincent moving west at 30 mph. This system has lost its closed circulation this evening and was downgraded to a wave but it had the appearance of at least weak TS earlier but now it looks like an odinary tropical wave plowing through the islands..... So i guess its back to the drawing boards and since Wednesday, our focus has been so concentrated on Chantal, that we have forgotten about the other waves in the Atlantic. There currently is a strong, high amplitude tropical wave now near 28 west moving westwards at 25 - 30 mph ( why are they moving so quickly westwards these days??) but this system lacks thunderstorms. Once convection starts popping, we will have to monitor it closely. It will most likely be in our region by Sunday night. Also there is another wave near 22 west passing just south of the Cape Verdes. This will be watched. And interestingly enough the national hurricane center is mentioning about a new wave over West Africa in their tropical weather discussion this evening. It reads ..... ' NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NOW HAS AXIS ALONG 8W/9W OVER AFRICA WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF 10N.  AS MENTIONED IN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS YESTERDAY ...THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST OVERNIGHT IS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  RATHER THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WINDSURGE THAT IS TYPICALLY FOUND BETWEEN WAVES.  TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 8W/9W SHOULD
EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.' First time they have mentioned a wave so far east in my two years of experience in the hurricane business (so what. 2yrs is a long time). Anyway, lemme get going. REMEMBER because Chantal is gone doesnt mean that we should become complacent. THE 2001 HURRICANE SEASON HAS JUST BEGAN!!. The most active part of the season is between August 15th and early October. From 1993 - 2000, at least one storm had threatened the Eastern Caribbean islands in that period and in the case of 1995 , 3 hurricanes passed in that period including hurricane Luis. I'm sure my friends in Antigua have these memories fresh on their minds. Got to go.............enjoy the weather cuz its the only weather we've got. 

Its 3:15pm and the effects of the storm are already being felt. Seas 9 ft , very cloudy with heavy build-ups to the south and east, winds NE at 20mph gust to almost 30mph. Strangely enough, not a drop of rain has fallen in the last 6 hours.My friends in Barbados dont look in good shape at all.They may be experiencing some strong thunderstorms now with strong just.......At least the satellite indicates that. Latest position 13n, 56.3w moving west at 26mph. A strong band of showers are located just north of Barbados or about 100 miles east of St Lucia and Martinique. Its moving west. It might be here by 5pm. That will most likely signal the start of the rains. ....... bye 4 now

Its 12 noon and it has gotten very windy here easterly winds at 23mph with higher gust already. However no rain clouds as yet. Just high cirrus clouds and low cumulus clouds at present. The satellite shows that the foward edge of Chantal is already over Barbados and will start to spread over St Lucia by 2 pm...... 11am position . 13.1n 55.3w , 280 miles east of Barbados or 380miles ese of St Lucia. Winds at 40. The recon will be in the area of the system by 5pm today. It looks like it will be passin north of Barbados at about 8 pm and towards St Lucia by midnight. ....... lots of weather on its way ...... bye 4 now

10:10am here and still no sign of Chantal ... well except the seas which are now in the order of 8 ft and rising. The weather has gotten very very sunny and only a few patches of cumulus clouds present. The wind is struggling to turn to the north which is proof that the storm is directly east ot St Lucia and moving towards us. I've just seen a wind gust from the NNE and 25mph and now it has died down to under 10mph.......bye 4 now . next advisory at 11am.  

A pleasant good morning to you. A pleasant good morning to Chantal......... i woke up today under grey skies, scattered showers and some wind gusts about 15 - 20 mph from the north- east to east. But no serious weather as yet....8:45am weather - partly cloudy skies, winds from north east at 15mph with gust a little higher and increasing seas about 7 feet already. The general mood in St Lucia is a lazy one. People were just getting to know the bad news as they got out of  bed and St Lucians are the most difficult people in the world to convince that a storm is coming. But things might pick up by afternoon when the weather start to get bad. Thats when the grocery stores will become filled with last minute shoppers rushing to buy suppplies...... TS warning is in effect for Barbados, St Lucia and St Vincent. TS watch is in effect for the Grenadines, Martinique and Dominica........8 am position - 12.9n , 54.0w or 370 miles east of Barbados. So it looks like Chantal will be passing over or just to the north of Barbados late this afternoon and then towards St Lucia. Wind gusts up to 75mph is possible near St Lucia, Martinique and Barbados because  the strom should strenghten before it arrives near St Lucia by 4 or 5 am tommorow.... The satellite shows that the system is very large and getting larger and stronger by the hour. I also think that locally heavy rain could occur as far south as Trinidad and as far north  as Guadeloupe. Our met office is predicting at least 2 - 4 inches of rain.....The system  is as of 8 am , begining to affect Barbados and will spread towards St Lucia, St Vincent, etc by afternoon.....Anyway i'll be watching this system very closly today. Elsewhere in the tropics, a wave is located just south west of the Cape Verde Islands and a stronger one moving off Africa. We are entering the Cape Verde season so these systems have to be watched ...... bye 4 now..... enjoy the weather cuz its the only weather we've got.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for St Lucia, St Vincent and Barbados as of 11pm . Since 9 pm  there have already been some weak squal lines passing through St Lucia with some heavy rain lasting 10 - 15mins but no wind as yet. The satellite shows a band of convection associated with the outter most spiral bands of TD4  already between Barbados and St Lucia. This means that the rains officially begin tonight. However not many people here know about the approaching storm so St Lucians  might be caught off guard once again just like they did on September 9th and 10th 1994 (lets hope not) when tropical storm Debbie appeared overnight and dumped 10 inches (254mm) of rain in less than 6 hrs. Whoa!!....... A few lives were lost in the flashfloods and landslides which occured ........ Anyway back to TD4 ..... this system looks very mean on satellite and will be upgraded to Chantal tomorrow. At 11pm it was located at 12.6n, 50.2w , 625miles ese of Barbados, 725miles ese of St Lucia, moving west at 26mph. Winds at 35mph. The forecast track all day puts the system near 14n 16w (over St Lucia) in 36hrs as a cat 1,2 hurricane. The most likely track is one that will put the system within 45miles of Barbados as a strong tropical storm and then towards St Lucia as a hurricane .... Lets hope not...... Nevertheless we will most likely experience northerly winds tomorrow anywhere from 25 - 50mph with higher gusts, frequent showers, thunderstorms and heavy seas. So come the first light of day tommorow, i'll be making preparations for Chantal's home coming.....  I'll try to update as often as i can tomorrow once the weather doesnt get the better of me. bye 4 now ........ enjoy the weather cuz its the only weather we've got.

As of 3pm there's alot of thunder and lightning here but not much rain nor wind. It looks like the wind shear on top this wave is easing up. Thats why more thunderstorms are popping this afternoon ...... Im still watching the wave now near 12n 36w..... it could be a threat to the islands on Friday but stronger than just a wave.  

Late morning satellite photos are showing several areas interest across the atlantic basin but still no named storms... just alot of bad weather. Firstly a stationary area of cloudiness located between the Bahamas and Bermuda has weakened. A tropical wave is in the western caribbean and has to be watched as is moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Closer to home . . . . . a huge,large,gigantic etc tropical wave is approaching the islands with an abundance of thunderstorms. The satellite shows alot of deep convection over Barbados and St. Vincent.. Lets hope they are alright. It seems that we are in for at least 2 - 4 inches of rain anywhere from Barbados northward to Anguilla later today and tonight. Flooding is possible so be vigilant. Currently its very cloudy in St Lucia with light winds all morning from the east at 5 - 10mph. We had some rain around 9 -10am this morning and some rumblings of thunder which really added up to nothing........ but alot more rain/thunder/lightning/gusty winds etc is expected by afternoon. There's another wave near 9 north , 23 west which bares watching as it moves westward but the most impressive wave of the season in my opinion is located near 12 north 35 west or about 1600 miles (2560 km) due east of the windwards. Its track is west at 20mph so if it develops (which it will) it will not have enough time to recurve enough to miss the islands . So i think we might have at least a tropical storm on our hands by Friday. A nice banding type cloud pattern is developing with it which signals development. And also thunderstorms have started popping with it this morning for the first time since it moved of Africa about 3 - 4 days ago......The tropics are coming to life  right when I predicted (August 15) I wont be surprised if we have at least one named storm by weekend so be prepared......Enjoy the weather cuz its the only weather we've got........... Bye 4 now  

There are several areas of interest in the atlantic this afternoon.Theres a nearly stationary area of showers and thunderstorms bewteen Bermuda and the Bahamas but surface pressures are too high for development at this time. A large wave is quickly approaching the islands from the east. Showers have increased with this feature today and a reasonably increase in shower activity is very likely to occur over the islands late tonight and tomorrow. Also, a strong wave seems to be nearing tropical depression status in the eastern atlantic. It is located near 12n 30w and moving west at 15mph. Some slow development is very likely. And finally a new tropical wave will be exiting west africa tonight. Nevertheless today was a very sunny day but as of 4pm this afternoon, i observed an increase in cloud cover and east-north-easterly  winds at 15 - 20mph and gusting to 25mph occasionally.... bye 4 now

There are a couple waves in the atlantic that bare watching. The first is near 46 west and it looks like it will bring increased shower activity to the entire island chain by late monday night and tuesday. Thats exactly what we need in St Lucia and the surrounding islands. Its been an unsually dry august this year . In fact the entire year in St. Lucia has been a drought year. Less than 10 mm of rain was recorded in the south of the island in March.  Nevertheless  back to the waves and there's a strong one near 12north , 26west moving west 20 - 25mph so it looks like it will be nearing the island in about 4 days. Slow development is likely especially as the system passes 45 west. And here comes a large mass of clouds coming off Africa. All eyes on the tropics. bye 4 now

I like the MY SATELLITE section. It show exactly from which direction the next tropical rainstorm  will be coming from. Anyway, this evening I did some research and i concluded that the last six hurricane seasons (1995 - 2000) with the exception of 1997 all had a marked increase in hurricane activity around  August 19th and we are approaching that time of year again. Tonight though im watching a couple waves that need to be watched closely. The first is quite large but disorganized and is located near 30-35 west, 10-15 north. The other has more thunderstorms and is a better candidate to develop. Its near 20 west and between 10 and 15 north moving west at 15 - 20mph. And finally as i take a look at the Africa satellite at weather.com, i can spot a large wave over central Africa and it will emerge off the coast in a day or so. Looks like one to watch in the future. nevertheless.... bye 4 now

I think i'll be going to bed right now. The tropics have fallen asleep and so will I. Please wake me up when the next impressive wave rolls off the african continent ..... till then ..ZZZZZZZZ

All is quite in the tropics. A weak wave is located near 50 west, another near 30 west and the  large are of thunderstorms which moved off Africa yesterday has become disorganized. So no delelopment is likely this week.  However things usually get heated by August 15th and thats next week so be ready.....Bye 4 now

Its typical august weather here in st lucia . . . . strong wind gusts coming from the east - southeast about 20 - 25mph, very cloudy and showery. And as usual, we had some thunderstorm activity overnight which woke me up a little earlier than usual. Nevertheless, im currently watching a series of waves across the atlantic east of my location. The first is near 41 west,  the other, a bit more impressive near 26 west and one big mass of clouds over central africa  which looks like it will exit west africa in a day or 2. It looks like the front runner will bring increased showers and thunderstorms to the islands in about 2 days . . . . . . . . . . in the mean time im enjoying the weather because its the only weather we've got...............  bye 4 now   

 

The weather has been sunny and warm here in st lucia all week after the wave which spawned BARRY pass right over us last sunday producing some heavy rain and not to mention - thunder. Nevertheless BARRY looks weak and impotent at present and the main concern is heavy rain. The next storm CHANTAL may be forming off a well organized wave just off Africa . This system is located about 11 north , 18 west and is over warm waters so it looks like a system for us in the caribbean to monitor.  bye 4 now