Well the most dreaded six months of the year are all over now ( June 1st - November 30th ). This year's season has been the most active since 1995 with 15 named storms developing this year. The last of them being  Tropical Strom Olga which up to today, is still roaming in the Atlantic just east of the Bahamas.  Olga is centered at 25.9 north, 69.3 west or about 515 miles ( 825km) east of Nassau, in the Bahamas. Movement is towards the north north-west at 8mph. Maximun winds are about 45mph. Luckily, Olga won't be affecting land, its only of interest to shipping as the system has been producing some large sea swells in that area for the last week or so. ( I never thought that I would be giving the co-ordinates of a tropical storm on December 2nd ).

 

Although the season was a busy one, fortunately, it has been quiet in the islands as far as severe weather is concerned. However we did have four significant weather systems passing through the island chain. Tropical Strom Chantal, Tropical Strom Dean, Tropical depression # 11 ( which eventually became Hurricane Iris ) and Tropical Strom Jerry.

 

The only significant bad weather we experienced here in St. Lucia was on the night of October 4th when Tropical Depression # 11 affected  the Windward Islands. Wind gusts exceeding 45mph and heavy rainfall were experienced that night. There was some flooding in several areas especially in the city of Castries were a thick layer of mud and debris could be seen on the streets by the next morning. There also were reports of toppled  trees (mainly bananas). Just three days later, St. Lucia was place on alert once again as Tropical Storm Jerry packing winds of 50 mph threatened. However, we experienced very little bad weather from that system as most of the thunderstorms and gusty winds stayed south of St. Lucia. After we had a very wet October, the month of November was the driest on record. But as I am writing now, its raining heavily and there's alot of thunder and dark clouds outside.

 

Lets hope that our friends in Central America and Cuba are recovering after the devastating effects of hurricanes Iris and Michelle.

 

Dr Bill Gray's preliminary prediction for the 2002 hurricane season will issued on Dec 7th.

I heard about the earthquake which was experienced over the Northern Antilles earlier this evening. Lets hope they are ok up in Antigua, Monsterrat, St Kitts and the other islands nearby.

 

Meanwhile, a tropical wave is passing through the islands bringing much needed rain. We had some thunderstorms late yesterday afternoon and during the rush hour commute this morning. But we are very much ok. Strong gusts are blowing from the east tonight about 20mph and higher at times. The met office at the airport in the south of the island recorded winds gusting up to 45mph during the afternoon.WOW! 

 

Two other waves, one near 42west and the other near 30west are being closely moniotored. The front runner has the better chance of developing further.

It seems like alot of activity went on across the tropics while I was away. I left on hurricane Erin and I am returning on tropical storm Humberto. Since September 1st, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Tropical depression #9 and Humberto all formed and the tropical wave near 9 north, 30 west looks like pre - Iris.

 

At 5pm Saturday 22nd September, the center of newly formed tropical storm Humberto was located near 29.0 north, 67.0 west. That is about 265 miles (430km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Humberto is moving towards the northwest at 12mph. A northerly turn is expected soon. On this track, the system will pass at least 250 miles west of Bermuda at its closest approach late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60mph and this system could become a hurricane within the next 12 - 24 hrs.

 

A rather strong tropical wave for late September is right now located near 9 north, 30 west and I think this is Iris in the making. This system is moving rapidly westwards at about 20 - 25mph. Visible satellite imagery indicates that a weak suface low has formed near 9 north along the wave axis which along 30 west. This system needs to be monitored closely for signs of  further organization.

 

Finally, a large area of thunderstorms is exiting Africa this evening.

 

Going back in hurricane history:.... Yesterday is exactly one year since major hurricane Isaac formed in the Eastern Atlantic. Isaac tied with hurricane Keith as the most powerful hurricane in last year's season with maximum winds at 140 mph. Isaac was closely followed by hurricane Joyce which formed on the 25th of September and threatened to be a major hurricane passing through the Islands but Joyce weakened and was only a weak tropical storm when it reached the Southern Windwards. Thankfully!

The first hurricane of the 2001 season has formed. This is the first time in 17yrs that a hurricane has formed so late. At 11am today, the large eye of Erin was located near 32.2 n , 62.6w or about 125 miles east of Bermuda. Movement is northwestwards at 14mph. Max. winds are at 105mph. Estimated minimal central pressure 979 mb or 28.91 inches. A major hurricane has winds from 115mph upwards. Erin is expected to reach that status today. Lets hope our friends in Bermuda are alright.

 

The remnants of TD # 7 is appearing to be merging with another tropical wave to its west and the two systems could form a much large and stronger area of low pressure in the next couple days. This large area of disturb weather will be near the Islands by Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

Meanwhile, a strong tropical wave near 10north, 26 west is getting better organized and has potential for further development in the next few days as it moves westwards at 15 mph.

 

Finally, a new disturbance is schedule to move off Africa today.

 

THE FORECAST

 winds - easterly at 10 - 15mph

seas - moderate with waves up to 4 feet

weather - The Leeward Islands - partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers.

               The Windward Islands - fair at first and then becoming partly cloudy to cloudy with                scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Late Saturday morning satellite photos indicate that there a several disturbances across the Atlantic Basin. Five to be precise.

 

First of all, tropical storm Erin seems to be strenghening today and it could become a hurricane tomorrow. A hurricane watch has been posted for Bermuda. At 11 am today, the center of Erin was located near latitude 27.5 north, longtitude 59.6 west  or generally about 455 miles ( 740 km ) east south east of Bermuda. Movement is to the north west at 9 mph. Winds are now at 50 mph and it is expected to become a hurricane (74 mph) in 24hrs. Condition are favourable for development and the system has banding features, deep convection near the center and a rather impressive outflow in all directions. Erin formed off the first of a series of strong disturbances that moved off Africa from late August up until today. 

 

Tropical depression # 7 has weakened today and it may be degraded to an open tropical wave later today. At 11 am, it was located near 15.2 north , 33.6 west or about 595 miles ( 955 km ) west of the Cape Verde Islands. Movement is westwards at 16mph in response to a rigde to its north. However the ridge should weaken later and then the depression should turn northward. This system is currently caught in the middle of two other tropical waves which are disrupting its inflow and thus preventing it from organizing further. This system formed off the third of four consecutive tropical waves since late August.

 

Thirdly, a persistent area of low pressure associated with the second of four strong tropical waves that moved off Africa in the last 6 - 8 days is now near 12 north, 43 west (1200 miles east of the Windwards). This system may get better organized before it reaches the Islands by Tuesday. However, we have the whole weekend to watch it. Movemant is westwards at about 15 mph.

 

Also, another tropical is located near 18 west. It moved off the coast yesterday.

 

And yet another system is about to move off Africa today or tomorrow. So it seems like the West African Moonsoon Trough is very active with a new disturbance almost everyday.  

 

Finally, a surface low has formed off Charlestown, S.C. but development  (if any) should be slow to occur.   

 

So here's my forecast for the Lesser Antilles for the next 24hrs.......

       Winds - east north easterly at 10 - 15 mph

       Seas - moderate with waves at about 4 feet

       Weather - fair at first with an increase in clouds and a few showers mainly over the Windward Islands by tonight because a weak instability line should cross the Islands today.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 58.5W AT 05/2100 UTC MOVING WNW 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB. ERIN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND THE REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW MOVING OFF THE WNW NEAR 59W. ALL OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY E OF THE WAVE WITH NEW BURSTS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 56W-58W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO CLEARLY DEFINE THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NW OF THE REMNANT WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING ANY ORGANIZATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 14W NOW ALONG 15W/16W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 05/0000 AND 05/1200 UTC SOUNDINGS AT BAMAKO...ALONG 8W IN AFRICA... INDICATED WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH THIS STATION NEAR 0000 UTC ON THE 5TH.  DEVELOPING AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 15W-18W.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 34W IS NOW ALONG 35W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 1010 MB LOW CENTER REMAINS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N35W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE AXIS IS TILTED NE TO SW FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LATITUDE RESPECTIVELY WITH SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. THE ANALYZED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. OVERALL...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPEARS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...A RECENT BURST OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE N OF THE LOW FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 34W-35W. APART FROM THIS AREA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 32W-37W. THE WAVE/LOW REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM W AFRICA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE N AND WEAK SHEAR.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 76W IS NOW ALONG 79W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE THE WAVE CURRENTLY HAS LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION. CONVECTION FURTHER W APPEARS TO BE MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 

 

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 89W/90W IS NOW ALONG 90W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ILL-DEFINED WITH LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. CURRENT POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATED MOTION.
THERE IS SOME CONVECTION TO THE NW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS LIKELY DUE TO DIURNAL PROCESSES.

Although Erin became very disorganized and weakened this afternoon, a recent burst of convection near the center might help the system regain strength overnight and tommorow. By now it should be near 16.5n, 48.5w (this is an estimate based on satellite imagery and is not official). Its track over the last 3 - 6 hrs has been almost directly westward but the computer models insist that it will turn to the north - west and stay clear of the islands. However the next 24hrs will be very crucial and we will need to monitor Erin's progress very closely on Tuesday. The outer most rain bands are already near 55w or less then 400 miles east of the islands so even if Erin stays well north of the Leeward Islands, we still may experience the outer frindge effects which will not be severe at all. Just scattered showers and a change in wind direction. The winds won't be strong enough to lift paper so there's nothing to worry about at this time. Meanwhile, the computer models a jumping all over the next two systems east of Erin. The first is near 6n, 25w - way south. According to the computer models, this system could become tropical storm Felix in about 3 - 5 days as it moves westward at about 15 - 20mph. It look rather impressive and we will have to monitor it very closely. Another system will come off Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday and the computer models are forecasting a significant system to emerge  off the coast on Thursday. Elsewhere (the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf Of Mexico) are very quiet, however that is exactly where the focus will turn later in the season climatically speaking.

11 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
PRESENT     03/0300Z  14.8N  42.5W    45 KTS
12HOURS     03/1200Z 15.4N  44.6W    50 KTS
24HOURS     04/0000Z 16.3N  47.3W    55 KTS
36HOURS     04/1200Z 17.2N  50.0W    60 KTS
48HOURS     05/0000Z 18.2N  52.5W    60 KTS
72HOURS     06/0000Z 20.0N  56.5W    65 KTS
 

 

Look at that vigorous tropical wave in the far eastern atlantic. It looks similar to the one which started  hurricane Alberto last year. Alberto ended up being one of the longest lived storms ever so this system has to be watched closely. Its getting better organized and a surface surface low has formed and is now located near 9 north, 17.5 west and its moving dead westwards. There is also an abundance of thunderstoms. But its still too early to say whether this system will affect us but what I know for sure is that the computer models intensify this system and it looks like this could be the first hurricane of the 2001 season.

9 am weather .... winds variable (north-east - west) at 5 - 15 mph with higher gusts at times. heavy rain and very dark........................ its like we are in the eyewall of a hurricane .... veryyy dark. That monster near 10n 20w looks good. Its gonna be Erin by weekend.

ERIN??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remeber I said in my earilier discussions that a strong tropical wave would exit west Africa today (29th)??? ...... well here it comes. This one is definitely Erin in the making. Finally!!!. I don't think this wave will play cat and mouse with us like previous ones. She looks ready for business....... nice weather here. ESE wind 5 - 10 mph. very sunny. nice and green cuz of heavy August rains......... 

August 29th 1995, two hurricanes and two tropical storms were creeping in the Atlantic namely Hurricane Humberto, Hurricane Iris, Tropical Storm Karen and Tropical Storm Luis*. Today we have 0. No action just like the same period last year............BORING!!