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- - - 2001 Hurricane Season - - -

- Poor Organization
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Aug 2001 15:18:43 +0000
Weather is all clear this morning,expect so for the rest of the day.
 
All weather disturbance in the Atlantic weakens.



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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Aug 2001 06:45:49 -0400
 today's nearly flat calm.sunny.a day for fishing.in my dimming memory august days of my early youth were always like this.idyllic.spending hours in or under the sea.not a worry in the world. 

- Strange trend......?
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Aug 2001 04:51:25 +0000

Another thing,on a hunch,the reason why so far,most of the system develope or become better organize in the west (after 40W) instead of the east is probably due to the influence of Warm Sea Temperature<above 27degrees>(which is presently confine/restricted to after 42W) and High Pressure,Ridge,Troughs(which affect the upper-level winds and other wind flows).And also due to the influence of other factors.
But remember,we are just starting the Cape Verde era and September is still ahead,things might change later such as the sea warms up more.Noted is also that the main Hurricane season for the Atlantic has shifted a little later during the past few years than usual,which is September-November instead of July/August-October.
Don't let yourself be caught by surprise!Always be prepare for whatever happens!



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- BIG THING A GO ON!!!!!!!!
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Aug 2001 04:32:31 +0000

 
 
WOW!!!!!Da..Da...That sssstuffff coming off the African coast,I am not sure its a weather system,look more like a super-hydrogen bomb explosion!If thats a tropical wave,it would be the biggest one I see in 6-7 years!That stuff have a chance of becoming a Hurricane LUIS II (2).However,convection usually dissipate a little when it move off the coast.This disturbance need extra care.
 
On the Satellite image below,you can also see the tropical wave that move off the coast a couple of days earlier.Little banding feature or convection is noted and there is a ely shear on the system.But the shear is expected to decrease as the system moves westward and the disturbance could become better organize then.Also need to keep an eye on this one.
(The wave is located in center of the imagery)
 
 
SAT>7
 
Heres another thats developing slowly,a spiral banding is noted indicating circulation.
Location(12.5N,50W)
 
 
SAT>8
 
To the north,you can see the spiral feature of the remnant of Dean.
To the far west is a burst of convection.MASSIVE!,but........nothing of our concern in the east.
 
Have a nice day all...


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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 24 Aug 2001 15:39:55 +0000
Weather is sunny in Antigua,not a single drop of rain.
 
This tropical wave south of the Cape Verde is poorly organize at this time.Convection is small and weak,but development is expected.
 


SAT>6


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- Deans dead,whos next?
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2001 15:39:29 +0000
We got a bright sunrise,weather is fine,lota blue skys.
Dean in the west has become disorganized a while ago and has downgraded to a tropical wave,redevelopment is unlikely.Storms this year seem to be forming after the disturbance pass the Eastern Caribbean Islands,and other than Chantal,all the others are short lived,two out of 4 storms move at unusual incredible speed.
The latest is a strong tropical wave moving off the African coast.Development is expected so we need to keep a look out.If it develope into a cyclone before longtitude 35W and move WNW or NW then it'll pass way to the north of the Leeward,but if it move west,watch out!




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- Dean.....
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 23 Aug 2001 02:29:10 +0000

Weather is overcast with persistent moderate rain and thunderstorm occuring from around 12:00am this morning to 7:00am and partly cloudy sky and improving thereafter.And did we got some wind!Max winds speeds around 30-35mph gusting to 45mph at times,50mph winds are reported on higher terrain.Wind decrease gradually.
Weather now at 10:30pm is fair.Winds at 16mph.



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- TS DEAN!!!
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2001 14:55:20 -0400 (AST)

Phewww!!!! A few hours earlier and DEAN would have formed right over our
heads! Based on its current track, "Happy Man" 's wife from the Turks may
get her wish to film a storm in action. Be careful for what you wish for
though....

The sun is shining brilliant through patches of clouds.

Alan B. Scholl


- Passing Wave
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2001 14:42:10 -0400 (AST)

The sky is breaking and the sun is actually peeking out now with large
pacthes of blue sky!!! There was some more rain earlier this afternoon
but it has all subsided for now.

Alan B. Scholl


- Overcast and grey!
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2001 07:52:01 -0400 (AST)

We awoke this morning to a very overcast and grey sky. There was some
occasinal strong gusts early this morning and occasional heavy rain. On my
way to work, it was starting to get heavy but has subsided since.

Accoring to the reports, this wave is showing signs of development. I hope
it develope AFTER it passes here, it would be interesting if it formed
right over our heads :-)

Alan B. Scholl


- Update
  • From: "Thomas Anthony" <tommy AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2001 00:55:52 -0400
 
East of the island.....very windy and intermediate showers....looks like it's going to rain quite heavy for the rest of the night. Gusts of wind reminds me of beginning of George as Fuller already said!
Wind coming from various directions (not only from East as it usually does).
I don't like nights like this!
Good night all!
Sira

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2001 23:33:07 -0400
avg. windspeed 23.5 mph.low clouds scudding forcing wind and rain afront.
dark night.reminds me of the hours before Georges struck.very hot and heavy atmosphere.
boys still comatose.

- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2001 02:37:14 +0000
Hi,everyone
At 4:00~5:00pm in St.John's the weather is partly cloudy to cloudy with some showers,wind at 15mph.
 
6:00~9:40pm,skys partly cloudy and drizzle.Wind at 13mph,Temperature/27.5degree C.
 
Now is 10:35pm,sky become partly overcast with light to moderate showers which cease as I write.The wind speed is 20-23mph gusting to 26mph ocassionally.
I guess there will be stronger winds and more bad weather coming up,maybe until 12:00 noon tomorrow.Seem as though Guadeloup getting the worst.
Wave still need monitoring.




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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2001 21:22:09 -0400
wind stronger now-15-18mph--still from north-east.completely overcast.intermittent showers.looks like heavy rain coming.
 

- Overcast & raining in the outh
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2001 13:52:27 -0400 (AST)
Hi,

It is about 2:00PM and some heay showers are being noticed in the south.
Hopefully, this wave should continue to bless us with some more needed
rain.

Alan B. Scholl


- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2001 16:06:58 +0000
Patches of cloud drifting in form the ESE,otherwise weathers fine.Winds at 16knots.
 
Convection associate with Trop. Wave located 200mile east of the Lesser Antilles has increase during the past few hours,however, if the system don't become a depression by nightfall tonight,it will not until it past the islands.Even if it become one near the islands,it will not do much.




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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2001 08:01:59 -0400
during the night the wind direction moved 90 degrees from south east to north east.not very strong  8-12 mph.now increasing a little.still beautiful weather.but it shows how far in advance of a system,no matter how small,the system affects the weather in front.

- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Aug 2001 03:12:01 +0000
<As anyone would notice,some of the sat. imagery posted by me below has automatically updated so they don't make any sense with the text discription and date.>
 
Weather is fine this morning but sky has become cloudy by nightfall.Winds at <15knots/17mph,we expect a few light showers tonight or tomorrow.Its real hot here,around 29degrees at 9:00pm.These influence is maybe due to clouds moving up from the Windwards where the ITCZ and a weak tropical wave is active.
 
 
If you scroll down,a look at the updated Satellite Imagery will so a tropical wave accompanied by a 1013mb low a little way off the Windward Islands located at about <14N53W> moving west at 15mph.This morning Sat. Imagery show the wave has wildly scattered convections which indicate disorganization.However,Sat. Imagery tonight show a more concentrate convection and a cyclonic turning is visible.We need to keep a look out.
 
post later>>




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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2001 15:40:46 +0000
Weather is super clear in Antigua.
 
That wave in the Atlantic<12N50W> is seemingly became disorganize.




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- Another one?
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 19 Aug 2001 20:19:38 +0000


They say this tropical wave is becoming better organize and development is anticipated.(But to me,this wave dosen't look organize,at least it does not seem to have a circulation)
Nevertherless,lets wait and see.
 
Report back later.bye


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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 19 Aug 2001 10:57:21 -0400
that hurr. page

- would Chantal cripple a second time..?
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2001 16:18:38 +0000
Breezy in Antigua,no rain,but a cloud is movin up..
 
 
 
 
Convection Dosen't look too healthy.
 
[radar map]
Forecast track fo Chantal.
 
The system at 11:00am seem to become disorganized and weakens slightly, a single circulation split into two.
 
 
            Click on the links below
 
        0100010       


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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2001 07:22:34 -0400
an extremely beautiful morning.sunny,gentle s.e. breeze.everything is bursting green--nearly alien after our 1 year drought.flowers,birds,the sea is crystal clear.
come on down.but as tim says 'IT IS AN ILL WIND THAT...'

- Regeneration.....Back to storm then to Hurricane!
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2001 05:19:18 +0000
Now I know Chantal is not dead but only crippled as it pass the windward,but now,its back to destruction....            
                                   GOES-8 Hurricane Sector - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov
                                4:15UTC 18,Aug 2001
 
 
[Animated Hurricane image]As of 11:00am Friday morning,remnat of Chantal became better organize and reform into tropical depression.
By 3:00pm,it became a tropical storm and at 12:00midnight,its still strenghtening and heading West-West North West as the ridge to the north weakens.
Its heading for Jamaica!


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- Remnant>
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 15:33:34 +0000
Last night,we got partly cloudy to cloudy sky with no rain but wind at 25-30mph gusting to 35mph,the climax came at 1:00am with light overcast to cloudy sky with light squalls and light thunderstorm,wind 30-35mph gusting to 45mph,this morning cloudy,winds 25-35mph.




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- My Satellite
  • From: Gert van Dijken <gert AT vandijken.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 03:59:13 -0400 (EDT)

The Satellite Pictures Martha is mentioning can be found on this website
as well.  When you go to the "My Satellite" page you can select your
island, say Antigua, and you get a close-up satellite image centered on
Antigua.

Try it: http://stormcarib.com/mysat.htm

Gert

*
**
*** Gert van Dijken ( gert AT vandijken.com )
**** Caribbean Hurricane Network - http://stormcarib.com/




- TO GET SAT. PIC
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 02:53:32 -0400
   The sat pic  mentioned below did not load ... so you have to click on the  I
 INTERACTIVE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE   and   then on  Caribbean and
 then  INFRARED....

- STORM CHANTAL GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Satellite Data Selector
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 02:45:06 -0400
Title: GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Satellite Data Selector
 
 
Sent: Friday, August 17, 2001 2:38 AM
Subject: STORM CHANTAL GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Satellite Data Selector

 
I had planned to send  you all an  ALL CLEAR REPORT  later this  morning..  BUT NOT  THIS EARLY!!   2:30 a.m.!!    They told us we would not get anything.. but i can tell you  right now  it  is SO WINDY and  POURING HARD RAIN  that  I could not even sleep so  logged on to see what is happening..and  below  tells us!!!   We are   getting outer bands as  you can see from  Red   below..  Antigua  is  just above the  butterfly island.. Guadeloupe... so  are  really on the edge...but for sure feeling something out  here on  the  highest hill on the Atlantic side..wish I already had my weather station in place which will clock the wind for us for the "next time"...   it sure reminds me we are in Hurricane season... I know this is NOTHING  really ... but  seems like it just now!!!   Makes me wish i was shuttered up!!!     am sure it will pass in a few hours  and  think the  only damage  will be minor garden damage, if that ...  all in all, this time round  Antigua is  LUCKY!!  and we  need the rain!

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Last Updated: Fri Aug 17 00:05:02 CDT 2001

- cool!! :)
  • From: "Thomas Anthony" <tommy AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 01:27:36 -0400
This feels good!
Very breezy down here....with some gusts of wind.....no rain or thunder....just a very cool night!....glad to have it after that hot day!
Bye Chantal!
:)
Sira

- STORM SCARE........
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2001 03:15:14 +0000
Oops!I think thats it for Chantal......too bad it don't have a funeral service.
The high pressure and a ridge is keeping it well south of Antigua.We got near 25knots/30mph wind since 11am and still getting the same strenght now(10:58pm).Not a drop of rain had fall over the past 10 hours,in fact,we only got cloud 2-3 hours ago.




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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 19:44:36 -0400
overcast.strong wind from ene.+/- 20mph.feels like rain.just came from one of my secret arawak middens and last night's rain washed out some teasures!

- Current conditions..
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 17:19:42 -0400 (AST)

It is quite windy here but this probably originates from the high pressure
system in the Atlantic as it is more NE to ENE and pretty constant. Other
than that the skies are hazy with patches of blue. The beaches on the NW
(Fort James, Dickenson Bay etc) were not particularly rough but a bit more
choppy than usual.

Hope all is well with our neighbours to the south...

Alan B. Scholl


- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
  • From: Allan Aflak <photoshop AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 14:50:17 -0400
Title: TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
I'VE BEEN READING SOME OF THE UPDATES FROM THE ISLANDS THAT ARE BEING THREATENED AND IT SEEMS THAT THEY ARE NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO DO. AFTER ALL, IT'S ONLY A TROPICAL STORM SO THERE IS NO NEED FOR A MAD PANIC. TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND IF YOU NEED HELP OR ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO THEN CALL US HERE IN ANTIGUA. WE HAVE LOTS OF EXPERIENCE WITH THE BIG ONES.

Allan

- Break Time
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 15:30:28 +0000
Seem as thought amature Chantal is gona hit windward flat in the face tonight.
Anyway,Antigua deserve a break after those powerful creature running across Antigua & Barbuda during the pass 6 years,its now the Windward islands turn to suffer(which I do not wish).Antiguans can sleep and work in peace.....at least FOR NOW.
Antigua is still having clouds and drizzle in part of the island but the sun is shining bright over St.John's.However,feeder bands from Chantal might affect the island soon,so we'll be back in the river.
If the storm pass above the 15degrees line(which is not likely), we might get some heavy gust,otherwise,we are safe. 




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- quite breezy
  • From: "Thomas Anthony" <tommy AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 11:14:08 -0400
On this side of the island is quite breezy today....and hot!
The 11:00 report has just been issued and the new position for TS Chantal is 13.1 North...Longitude 55.3 West or about 280 miles ....455 KM East of Barbados.
Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for Dominica and the Grenadines.
For some reason I don't trust this one....I have a feeling that just before hitting Barbados its direction will change.....it has happen before so we should not be caught unprepared.
Sira

- TS Chantal !!!
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 08:01:16 -0400 (AST)

We had quite a bit of lightning and thunder last night from the end of
the wave. I have not heard/FELT thunder like that in years.

According to the latest reports, the depression has become TS Chantal!!!

It has not deviated much so the southern islands should already be
preparing for this one.

Alan B. Scholl


- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 06:17:44 -0400
that storm looks healthy.
yesterday overcast rainy and light winds.last night thunder lightning and heavy rain as last cell passed thru.this morning brings strong easterly breeze and o lovely colourful dawn with a few clouds.
don't trust chantal to stay south.

- OFFICIAL REPORT
  • From: "Thomas Anthony" <tommy AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 23:20:53 -0400
Last report issued on TD number 4:
...DEPRESSION RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS AND ST. VINCENT...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST.
LUCIA.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  50.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 625 MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 26 MPH ...
43 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...  50.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 26 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...  35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...THURSDAY.


- Moving closer
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 22:57:12 EDT
As of 11pm local Antigua time Weather Channel reports Tropical Storm watches
polsted for Barbados, St. Vincent and St.Lucia
New position 12.6N 50.2W  625 miles east of Barbados and moving atg 26 mph
directly west Now within 36 hours of landfall  and expected to be a hurricane
south of Puerto Rico within 72 hours. Predicting Antigua will start seeing
the way outer bands early  Friday morning
   A good test of being prepared!!!!- cheers-rl


- Storm Bearing?
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2001 02:49:19 +0000

TD4 continues to move rapidly due west,chance of hitting Antigua is almost nil~  The maximum line of passage would only reach as far north as Dominica,but a north shift would bring it closer(but still not to close).Guess all we are getting is rain especially since the convection area is to the north of the center,we got a higher chance of rain than those island to the south of the center.If the system slows down,it would had a better chance of strenghtening even more,but then,it might also had a higher chance of shifting north.
We just need to keep on the look out.    
Bye~~


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- TOO CALM AROUND HERE!!!
  • From: "Thomas Anthony" <tommy AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 20:51:38 -0400
After quite a bit of wind and rain today, everything seems calm now.....way too calm on this side of the island (Seatons Village)....and hot. No breeze at all!....and that is bad news. I truly believe this depression will turn to hurricane faster than expected. Lets hope it doesn't get us as any more than a category 1.
Get ready guys!....We are definitely up for some action again!
Sira

- moving faster
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 20:06:10 EDT
Dr.Steve Lyons at Weather Channel in 8pm Antigua time update reports TD4
moving faster westward than anticipated. Says the island chain will start
feeling the northern winds of Chantal as early as tomorrow afternoon
(THURSDAY) . Still on target for a Friday daytime arrival over the islands as
a hurricane.   cheers-rl


- The OFFICIAL version!!
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 18:00:07 EDT
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...HEADING FOR THE
LESSER ANTILLES...  ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
47.2 WEST OR ABOUT 825 MILES...1330 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST  37 KM/HR AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


- too early to tell???
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 18:01:27 -0400
WELL..  SOMEBODY BETTER GET  FRAID!!!   ---  CAUSE  SOMEONE WILL GET SOMETHING FROM  WHAT WILL SURELY BECOME CHANTAL  ... MILLION $$$ QUESTION... US OR THEM  (WINDWARD OR LEEWARD ISLANDS).... IT IS DUE WEST OF THE WINDWARD  NOW.. BUT AS WE ALL KNOW  THEY LIKE TO SWING NORTH!!
    JUST SPOKE TO HURRICANE HUNTERS...THEY ARE AT THEIR ST CROIX BASE  AND WILL FLY THE  FIRST MISSION AT   1:30 P.M.  TOMORROW.. A 10 HR  FLIGHT GATHERING DATA THROUGHOUT..  SO  THE   5 P.M. UPDATE TOMORROW WILL GIVE US  ALOT BETTER IDEA...MORE ACCURATE INFO  THAN THE SATELLITE SHOWS.....   STILL  NOT TOO EARLY TO PICK UP  STUFF  THAT ALWAYS GATHERS FROM SEASON TO SEASON LYING AROUND THE YARD  THAT CAN "FLY LIKE A KITE"  AS OUR ARROW CALYPSION SINGS!!!   LATER.........WAKE UP BACK ROOM BOYS....

- TD$ 6pm Antigua time latest update
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 17:56:41 EDT
TD4 now at 12.5N 47.2W -moving very quickly at 23-29mph with 35mph winds
-825 miles E of Windward Islands .A hurricane watch or tropical storm watch
may well be called this evening for several of the islands.
The probability of landstrike  as a Category 1 hurricane over area from
Barbados to St Lucia if it continues on its direct westward path   in 12 hour
period Friday 12 noon onwards Antigua time   versus only 12% probability if
it jjogs northwest of affecting 65 mile area around Antigua.
cheers-rl


- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 17:01:51 -0400
THAT DON'T FRAID WE.

- TD4 path
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 14:58:22 EDT
Weather Channel at 3pm Antigua time produced first projected path of Chantal
predicting over the islands at hurricane strength Friday night into Saturday
morning.
Fairly wide swath and unknown if it will be to the north the south or the
center at this point. Still moving quite rapidly directly west.  First
hurricane reconnaisance flights into Chantal at 5pm Antigua time tomorrow
(THURSDAY). Also a new "fairly bigorous" tropical wave just came off the
African coast that will also need careful monitoring.  Getting busy!!!-rl


- Jumby washing out
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 14:28:31 EDT
Jumby Bay reporting heavy continuous rain is beginning to cause some minor
flooding and washouts- grass is fully green again, palm trees reopening but
mud is sliding.
Workers there getting hurricane shutters readied. Fragile stuff being moved
indoors already.-rl


- TD 4 threats increase
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 14:01:55 EDT
At 1pm Antigua time Weather Channel says TD4 is moving faster than 23 -35mph
westward and that by 12 noon Thursday it will have been upgraded to  a
Tropical Storm.
Dr.John Hope  fears it may well be at Hurricane strength as it approaches the
islands as early as Friday. Thus Chantal will have arrived in the
neighborhood and it doesn't look like a gentle French princess to me. Watch
carefully- its quickness may surprise !!! Thats the real trouble with French
women!! cheers-rl


- TD4 update
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 12:41:43 EDT
as of 12 noon local Antigua time: Weather Channel says it is now officially
Tropical Depression 4 at 12.3N and 45.) W 975 miles east of the Windward
islands with 35mph winds  moving West at 23 mph.
Weather Channel also reports there will now be rain on Thursday for Antigua
and for next seven days with exception of Sunday-  I guess people can get to
church dry!
we'll keep watching  -rl


- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 15:34:20 +0000
Got some rain here,otherwise,nothing much.
Dominica got a high chance of getting a strike from that Swirly.




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- TD #4
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 11:16:13 -0400 (AST)
HI ALL,

Well #4 is on our doorstep. While the track has it south of us, we have
to keep a keen eye on this storm!!!

Alan B. Scholl


- TD about to form
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2001 20:04:14 EDT
Weather Channel reports at 8pm local time that the storm cluster about 3-4
days out will probably become a Tropical Depression in 24 hours and is worth
watching carefully. Weather Channel also projecting rainfall over Antigua for
next seven days but none on Thursday. Congrats to Martha on her remarkable
Arctic Seal save- now we must all gird together to do battle against Dolphin
Captivity Program. Great that so many Antiguans came together  yesterday to
save an injured mammal - now we have to save the live healthy ones before
they are injured by agressive hunters. Cheers!


- IS IT WEATHER RELATED!?
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2001 18:02:31 -0400
 

 
MAYBE IT IS WEATHER RELATED??? well this one is not about HURRICANES  but something even more  weird!!! and  i believe you guys like to know about what goes down in our neck of the woods  (other than  hurricanes)!!!
 
SAVING A BABY HOODED SEAL!! 
 this little fellow  struggled upon an ANTIGUA beach in error 2 nights ago...all the way from the ARTIC..
they think maybe cold water currents  guided about  8 of these young seals THE WRONG WAY  and they ended up in  tropical waters... this one was attack by a shark, poor baby;     (you can see some of the bites... and  concerned Antiguans  mounted an amazing rescue.. Last night  "WADADLI" - named  for the  original Indian name of Antigua -  was turned over to Marine Mammal rescue Vets who flew down from San Juan  and  will attempt to save WADADLI and release him back to the wild!   much nicer to report to you on than HURRICANE DAMAGES!  
   But  i understand we better start looking eastward!!!  
 
For more  details  go to  
 

 
 

Mvc-208f.JPG

- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2001 15:24:11 +0000
Got some new update,guess i am right,as the High Pressure weakens,the Atlantic has become relatively active.Watch out people!!!




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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2001 15:08:29 +0000
Guess we are going to get some rain today.
 
The tropical wave located in the central Atlantic has become better organise as the High Pressure rich to the north weakens.




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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2001 07:12:38 -0400
went to to town and bought some soap and nice smelling stuff.
the boys in the backroom shall soon get their second bath of the year.

- Storm cluster just east of us?
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2001 14:52:27 -0400 (AST)

I have been watching the mass of clouds slowly approaching the Eastern
Caribbean. While there are no reports of development, we probably will be
in for some serious thunderstorm activity.

Any comments on this?

Alan B. Scholl


- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2001 15:08:28 +0000
We got some nice rain this morning,feel refresh
 
That tropical wave in the central Atlantic is showing some sign of organization.But even if it became a tropical cyclone,the high pressure will cause a shear on the system and cause it to weaken or a stop in strenghtening.If the high pressure only weaken....................




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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2001 01:07:07 +0000
Strengthening High Pressure systems continues to dominate all of Central & North Atlantic
No development is anticipated with any of the disturbance.



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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2001 15:58:48 +0000
With this type of strong high pressure dominating the Atlantic,those tiny disturbance moving off Africa wouldn't go very far in development (if there's any).But I noted some slight weakening in the High Pressure system,dropping from 1030mb to 1028mb,but thats still to high for much development,In fact,a 1026mb High is moving south next to the one thats already there.However,in my opinion,both system will weaken sooner or later.
 
Click >Here< to view more infomation.




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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2001 11:38:01 -0400
BRISK EASTERLY.SUNNY BUT HAZY-LAZY SUNDAY MORNING.EVEN THE DOGS ARE DORMANT.

- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Aug 2001 14:52:15 +0000

Very dry ........and hot,     i see something is in the eastern Atlantic





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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 10 Aug 2001 15:06:33 +0000

Hope we are not back into the wave of drought,its stinking hot here!

MY OUT LOOK>>

-> SST(Sea Surface Temperature) in the Centra & Eastern Atlantic is presently not warm enough for development this early in August but its getting there.

-> High Pressure System prone to cause vertical shear in cyclone,therefore weakens them or make developing disturbance become disorganise.There is a STRONG High Pressure Rich in the central -north Atlantic and another one in the Gulf of Mexico now,making development impossible.However,if only these High Pressure retreat north,weaken or dissipate altogether then I believe development is climatologically anticipated. So....pray that it don't!






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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 9 Aug 2001 17:26:53 -0400
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 09 Aug 2001 15:25:23 +0000

A weak wave is passing,weathers fine except some light showers.

Lets try my little prediction.

I am not an expert but i know what I am saying,
After some close observation on the weather since 13th March,heres what I have to tell you:

I smell somethings up with the Atlantic,every time theres a long span of minimal activity period(which can be said as the 'incubation' period) somethings always up.

 






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- Update
  • From: "|A L L ADNE N G |" <dragon_ab AT hotmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 08 Aug 2001 15:18:06 +0000

Well.....,its pretty quite now,no storm ,no depression but still on guard.






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- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2001 22:13:41 -0400
chantal?

- East Atlantic IR Ch. 4 Loop
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2001 21:08:15 -0400
click on "fwd" and wait

 http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/eatl-ir4-loop.html

East Atlantic IR Ch. 4 Loop.url

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2001 08:25:14 -0400
massive cell system passing,mostly to north.temp. dropped.wind 15-20.multi-layered clouds starting at sea surface going up.nearly like the real thing.

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Mon, 30 Jul 2001 22:46:27 -0400
of course the heavy rain saturated the montserrat volcano,expanded,and blew the top off,causing chaos in montserrat with the largest eruption in probably over a year------- results:
no electricity
rocks,ash,etc...falling all over montserrat
a huge dust plume tavelling north west resulting in the closure of virtually every airport all the way up to san juan-which still remains closed.
 
all that rain-the boys in the back just got washed and now all ashed and muddied--s--t!

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 29 Jul 2001 20:32:12 -0400
spent the night in p.rico and flew thru the wave back here today.BUMPY.over 2 inches of rain--my girls have gone crabbing tonight(crab holes fill with water:crabs come out! very tasty) forgot what it was like to be muddy,wet and cold tho.8:30 pm and still thunder etc....
boys in back room having a bath at last.

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 28 Jul 2001 07:24:16 -0400
welcome Roblea.

- joining the report team
  • From: Roblea AT aol.com
  • Date: Thu, 26 Jul 2001 11:33:39 EDT
have decided to join Antigua's intrepid team of weather watchers- and hope to
add
some pithy contributions in the future. Meantime Keep Antigua
Shining.Cheers-rl


- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 18 Jul 2001 23:45:46 -0400
biggie coming off mamma A.

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2001 19:11:53 -0400
didn't even bother to wake the boys for this one.

- TD #2
  • From: "Alan B. Scholl" <scholla AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2001 07:56:31 -0400 (AST)
Hi,

Well our first "swirly" is lining us up in the crosshairs. The track is
taking it pretty close to Antigua/Barbuda. Although it is a bit early to
worry, there is nothing wrong with a little mental preparation.

Alan B. Scholl
Email: scholla AT candw.ag  alan.scholl AT cw.com
       schollab AT hotmail.com     schollab AT yahoo.com


- FIRST TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
  • From: "MARTHA WATKINS GILKES" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2001 06:01:28 -0400
   HI  GUYS AND GALS...  am back with you... 
       Well,   time to start paying attention again... at 5:30 a.m. first tropical storm warning has been issued by Miami Hurricane center -  1000 miles out ... it is a bit south  around  14 N ... but  then  that is usually where they all are until they  start rolling across the Atlantic...  Antigua got  nice HEAVY rain for the first time in months  last night  and we have been in a terrible drought for months,  so severe livestock is dying... so  we are thankful for the rain.    Anyway... we will be here... watching...  stay tuned...

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2001 18:29:32 -0400
meant 10 40.  it looks like the first cartwheel of the season---early too.
we are totally parched out.boys in backroom dessicated.rum only liquid available.

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2001 09:08:57 -0400
10w 10n looks interesting

- test report to HURRICANE REPORT PAGE
  • From: "Martha Watkins-Gilkes" <gilkesm AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Tue, 19 Jun 2001 18:32:50 -0400
Nothing like  being ready..and  gert has  reminded us we are in the  start of Hurricane season...so  just  sending a test  email to be sure I am up and running...and am attaching a photo  to test this also... a shot of one of the beautiful sail boats in Antigua for our annual race week...
   Hope everyone is ready for  hurricane season also... Dr Gray has upped his forecast with  2 more hurricanes!   but  lets  hope  JUNE  TOO SOON  is right..so we can still breath easy... 

WHITE HAWK SAIL BOAT.jpg

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 16 Jun 2001 14:24:08 -0400
first weather of the year.first rain of the year-not much-but exciting.good squally gusts.dark.low dark clouds coming from the south east.won't last long.

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sun, 27 May 2001 12:16:31 -0400
2 drops--------back to the sahara.

- Update
  • From: "John Fuller" <fullerj AT candw.ag>
  • Date: Sat, 26 May 2001 21:52:09 -0400
This system coming up from the southeast is the FIRST promise of rain (also the first wave) we have had this year! I don't recall a drier year.
p.s.  ocean getting quite warm.

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