This Depression will likely defy ALL THE NAYSAYERS AND I predict that within 
the next few hrs TD2 will be in a little more favorable environment Re: SST and 
will have gained Tropical storm designation by then from the NHC. 

I DO KNOW THAT There have been WORSE looking Tropical storms than TD2.. CASES 
IN POINT INCLUDE:- T.S Bill of 2003 and Jerry of 2001 etc. As was rightly noted 
by Steve on Behalf of Dr. Masters- (wunderground.com) -the call on the forecast 
intensity for TD 2 might have been a bit too conservative- that’s given the 
forecasts of the Specialized Tropical Cyclone Models. I hold that the exclusive 
agreement with the large scale models at this stage in the system’s development 
is most likely a bit too Premature...
IN FACT,  there is a precedent for such systems – even those which have been 
open or even weak tropical waves –That have quickly been able to organize east 
of the Lesser Antilles islands- resulting in high-end tropical storms right 
over the islands. Systems like Cindy-1993, & Debby -1994 easily come to mind, & 
of course Chantal of 2013 also. 

But ONE OF THE MOST RECENT AND SIGNIFICANT CASES WAS T.S. HELENE OF THE 2012 
SEASON WHICH ALTHOUGH IT WAS OFFICIALLY DOWNGRADED DUE TO ‘CONFIRMED’ 
DEGENERATION BY A HURRICANE HUNTER’S FLIGHT –PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
STORM CONDITIONS IN A COUPLE OF THE ISLANDS;Eg. THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA WHERE 
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSED NEAREST HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE DAMAGE AT SEVERAL 
SPOTS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTUAL TROPICAL 
STORM SYSTEM & Not a Truly ‘DOWNGRADED’ SYSTEM. SO AGAIN IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY 
APPARENT THAT –‘The large scale global models do not have a handle on this 
small system, but the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, initialized at 18Z, 
forecast the storm to track towards the CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB late 
in the day THU or by early Friday’ –May be more accurate. Quoting  Steve:-‘The 
statistically based intensity models show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm 
by then, though the
 more reliable dynamical models are NOT forecasting the system to show 
significant intensification…’ The statistically based intensity models may 
prove to in fact be RIGHT Despite wind shear and drier air factors.
God Bless us All!