Crown Weather Services

Invest 91-L Located 900 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
I think we have our first potential significant tropical cyclone threat of the 20111 Hurricane Season. Invest 91-L, located about 900 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated during the overnight hours. It does appear looking at data this morning that a fairly well organized surface circulation exists with Invest 91-L and I fully expect this system to be upgraded to Tropical Depression #5 either later today or at the latest during Sunday morning.

My thinking this morning is that this system will track in a general west-northwestward direction and track across the Lesser Antilles somewhere between the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe on Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

As for strengthening over the next 48 to 72 hours, the circulation, while well established is elongated and satellite imagery indicates dry air both to the north and west of Invest 91-L. The HWRF and GFDL models do very little with this system while the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance forecasts strengthening to a hurricane by Monday. My opinion is that the HWRF/GFDL models may be too weak and the SHIPS/LGEM models may be too strong with intensity. So, I would say tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning, then intensification into a tropical storm by Monday morning and a forecast of this to cross the Lesser Antilles as a 65 mph tropical storm Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

After crossing the Lesser Antilles, the global and track model guidance have some differing opinions on where they track future Emily.

My main concern right now are the northeastern Caribbean Islands, including the Leeward Islands from Martinique northward to Anguilla, the US and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Everyone across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean should prepare for this potential storm this weekend. Do not wait until watches and warnings are posted and become entangled in the last minute rush to buy supplies. This system is forecast to start affecting the islands of the northeastern Caribbean as early as Monday afternoon and potentially could be a moderate to strong tropical storm or even a hurricane.

Finally, the Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos islands are my other concern as this storm may affect you by later next week. Everyone across the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor this system and go over your hurricane disaster supply kits this weekend.