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St.Martin Update

Tropical Weather Discussion, Sunday June 13, 2010 at 825 am EDT/725 am CDT

Published: Sun, Jun 13 09:22 EDT
By "Barbara Cannegieter" <barcann at hotmail.com>

One to watch!
 
Subject: Tropical Weather Discussion, Sunday June 13, 2010 at 825 am EDT/725 am CDT





Issued: Sunday, June 13, 2010 825 am EDT/725 am CDT

For Maps, Images and Graphics On Invest 92-L, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.

Discussion

Invest 92-L Located In The Eastern Atlantic: If this is what the rest of this hurricane season holds, then it's going to be a very, very long and potentially dangerous season!! I am closely monitoring an area of low pressure, labeled Invest 92-L, which is located about 900 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (8 North Latitude, 32.5 West Longitude). This tropical disturbance is nearing tropical depression status. Satellite imagery this morning showed Invest 92-L becoming better and better organized with each new satellite frame and I think it may be upgraded to Tropical Depression status by this evening or at the very latest early Monday morning. In fact, it may reach tropical storm strength (its name would be Alex) sometime during Monday.

Analysis of this system showed that environmental conditions are favorable for development and intensification as we have very warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow, plenty of moisture and low wind shear values. The latest model guidance is forecasting that the low wind shear values will continue for the next 2 to 3 days and thus they are forecasting 92-L to be a 50 to 70 mph tropical storm in about 3 to 4 days. After that, weakening is forecast by the model guidance due to increasing wind shear values as this system closes in on the Lesser Antilles in 6 days. My take is that we are looking at slow, but steady intensification over the next few days and I expect that we may be looking at a 50 mph tropical storm around Tuesday or at the latest Wednesday.

The latest model track guidance is showing a west-northwest track over the next 2 to 3 days. The model guidance may actually be a bit too far north in their forecast tracks. The reason why I think this is because currently there is a large trough of low pressure located near 50 West Longitude. This trough should lift over the next few days and this will give way to a ridge of high pressure. This weather pattern would favor a west-northwest track over the next several days and the consequences are that this system will be near the Lesser Antilles by about Friday. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep close tabs on this system.

It should be noted that the long range GFS model is forecasting plenty of activity across the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the next 2 weeks. The combination of this, strong high pressure to the north and a diffluent wind flow aloft could lead to additional tropical cyclone development between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Also, satellite imagery this morning showed another strong tropical wave located over western Africa that should emerge in the eastern Atlantic over the next day or two. So, like I said at the beginning of this discussion, if this is what the rest of this hurricane season is going to be like, then strap in, because it's going to be one hell of a bad hurricane season!!

So, in closing, Invest 92-L looks better organized with each new satellite frame and with sea surface temperatures well above average and environmental conditions that are favorable; I would say development into a tropical depression is very possible by this evening or at the latest Monday morning, if it remains well organized.

One Last Item Of Interest: The annual Eastern US Weather Forums conference is being held this weekend in Baltimore, Maryland. Unfortunately, I could not attend; anyways, Stacy Stewart from the National Hurricane Center spoke yesterday and had some interesting comments.

They include:
His personal prediction of 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index of 200 plus.

Very active early season, mid to late July. Also we may be looking at late and strong Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico systems due to very warm sea surface temperatures and also activity shifts west later in the season.

The Mantra at the NHC is GO SHEAR!

This topic can be viewed at: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=232840&st=0

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT/5 am CDT Monday morning. If Invest 92-L is upgraded to a tropical depression today or this evening, then I will post an update to this discussion.



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