Issued: Sunday, June 13, 2010 825 am EDT/725
am CDT
For Maps, Images and Graphics
On Invest 92-L, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325.
Discussion
Invest 92-L Located In The Eastern
Atlantic: If this is what the rest of this hurricane season holds, then
it's going to be a very, very long and potentially dangerous season!!
I am closely monitoring an area of low
pressure, labeled Invest 92-L, which is located about 900 miles southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands (8 North Latitude, 32.5 West Longitude). This tropical
disturbance is nearing tropical depression status. Satellite imagery this
morning showed Invest 92-L becoming better and better organized with each new
satellite frame and I think it may be upgraded to Tropical Depression status by
this evening or at the very latest early Monday morning. In fact, it may reach
tropical storm strength (its name would be Alex) sometime during Monday.
Analysis of this system showed that environmental
conditions are favorable for development and intensification as we have very
warm sea surface temperatures, good outflow, plenty of moisture and low wind
shear values. The latest model guidance is forecasting that the low wind shear
values will continue for the next 2 to 3 days and thus they are forecasting 92-L
to be a 50 to 70 mph tropical storm in about 3 to 4 days. After that, weakening
is forecast by the model guidance due to increasing wind shear values as this
system closes in on the Lesser Antilles in 6 days. My take is that we are
looking at slow, but steady intensification over the next few days and I expect
that we may be looking at a 50 mph tropical storm around Tuesday or at the
latest Wednesday.
The latest model track guidance is showing a
west-northwest track over the next 2 to 3 days. The model guidance may actually
be a bit too far north in their forecast tracks. The reason why I think this is
because currently there is a large trough of low pressure located near 50 West
Longitude. This trough should lift over the next few days and this will give way
to a ridge of high pressure. This weather
pattern would favor a west-northwest track over the next several days and the
consequences are that this system will be near the Lesser Antilles by about
Friday. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should keep close tabs on this
system.
It should be noted that the long range GFS model is
forecasting plenty of activity across the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over
the next 2 weeks. The combination of this, strong high pressure to the north and
a diffluent wind flow aloft could lead to additional tropical cyclone
development between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa over the next 2
to 3 weeks. Also, satellite imagery this morning showed another strong tropical
wave located over western Africa that should emerge in the eastern Atlantic over
the next day or two. So, like I said at the beginning of this discussion, if
this is what the rest of this hurricane season is going to be like, then strap
in, because it's going to be one hell of a bad hurricane season!!
So, in closing, Invest 92-L looks better organized with
each new satellite frame and with sea surface temperatures well above average
and environmental conditions that are favorable; I would say development into a
tropical depression is very possible by this evening or at the latest Monday
morning, if it remains well organized.
One Last Item Of Interest: The annual
Eastern US Weather Forums conference is being held this weekend in Baltimore,
Maryland. Unfortunately, I could not attend; anyways, Stacy Stewart from the
National Hurricane Center spoke yesterday and had some interesting comments.
They include:
His personal prediction of 17 named
storms, 12 hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index of 200 plus.
Very active early season, mid to late July. Also we may
be looking at late and strong Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico systems due to very
warm sea surface temperatures and also activity shifts west later in the season.
The Mantra at the NHC is GO SHEAR!
This topic can be viewed at: http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=232840&st=0
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6
am EDT/5 am CDT Monday morning. If Invest 92-L is upgraded to a tropical
depression today or this evening, then I will post an update to this discussion.
