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For the most recent reports from St.Croix see this page.

- - - 2015 Hurricane Season - - -

- Where There Is Life....
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2015 00:02:54 -0400
Good night, lovely folks, near and far, hope you all had a great day. My turtle 
watching day came to an end, again, without the appearance of one or more baby 
turtles. Anyone out there has Red Footed Tortoises? It's past 90 days and 
nothing yet. In the meanwhile, the adult ones are tired pacing the front of 
their house with the locked doors. They want in. Of the two houses they prefer 
this one;  it's been very windy and they don't like windy days. The stubborn 
little ones, if they are there at all, must go. So, I must take them out, 
carefully, in case, and place them somewhere else. I have to prepare a new 
place for the eggs in 1)cardboard box, 2)low plastic box, or 3)an unused glass 
aquarium.  Which is the most advisable? Let me hear from you experts out there 
before the tropical wave arrives on the scene Wednesday into Thursday. 

In the meanwhile, our youngest Flamboyant tree is blooming despite the drought. 
There is hope.  May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Gale Force Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:34:53 -0400
What a surprise this morning when I saw the dark, heavy rain laden clouds and 
stormy looking conditions. I could just see it raining buckets at any moment. 
Well, it didn't where we are, but I'm sure it did elsewhere. This week was 
forecast to be DRY. In the meanwhile that has changed and by Thursday a low 
level system is forecast to come this way, hopefully bringing us copious 
amounts of rain.
That would be great! The main topic here is the drought. There are two very big 
waves coming off the coast of Africa. If they don't get snuffed out they could 
mean trouble. Let it be RAIN and nothing else. Good night, rest well, and may 
God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Weather-beaten Trees
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2015 23:23:06 -0400
We are very fortunate to have many Divi-Divi trees on our property, or I should 
say, this land is so blessed to have trees that are rare here . According to 
the Dept of Agriculture, our land and one other are home to these trees. Our 
visitors have taken seeds, slips, newly sprouted trees and nothing survives or 
even gets started. Theirs is a weather beaten look.
They are tough trees with welcoming shade, a bark that looks old. Many storms 
have come and gone; except for a few branches, they stand Proud. They have had 
a couple of relatively quiet years and we hope it stays so. Rain? Yes, there is 
some in the forecast for next Thursday! The walk about today in the lower 
garden was sad to see after the three weeks away for my husband. So much has 
deteriorated since the drought began. We know that one day, in the near future, 
 the picture will change again, for the better. We must believe. Have a good 
night and may God bless us all.

Isabel 
 




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trees

Sent from my iPhone

- Mysterious Light
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2015 21:16:42 -0400
Hello again! I just sent out the weather chili post, but now I want to share 
and ask your opinion of this seemingly mysterious light in the photo I took 
this morning when I saw the sun coming up in the east. 
I thought the light filtering through the branches was interesting. Then, after 
I took it, I noticed this ball to the right, like the sun, and I could not 
figure it out. Can you? My husband said it was a reflection of something, but 
there was nothing around, just bushes and plants. It's probably something very 
simple, but what.!

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It was another hot day as the sun made it's way across the sky, and then, this 
evening from the gazebo in the lower garden I took another photo of the setting 
sun:

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And a bit later from the upper level:

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May God bless us all,

Isabel

Sent from my iPhone

- Lost update..
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 25 Jul 2015 20:21:41 -0400
Last night I wanted to send this Hurricane Season recipe for today, but I lost 
it just before "send". Since it is quiet we can try out this recipe, I thought. 
Kick 'N Chili it's called. Great for those participating in the Chili Cook Off 
every year. As for our weather-- DRY. That is the forecast for next week as 
well. Won't it be funny if that's when we have a deluge..? Hilariously grateful 
is what I'll be!
We decided to go with Black Beans today instead of Chili. A shower of blessings,

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 53-An Actual Volcano Alertt
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 23:40:03 -0500
This morning VITEMA issued the alert.how timely! Just last night I mentioned my concern and how we need to be informed as to what to do in the event of a tsunami, that is, other than run for the hills. The West Indies Seismic Research Centre reported "signs of elevated seismic activity from July 11 to today".  NOAA is monitoring the activity. "There is imminent threat tsunami generation to the U.S. Virgin Islands".

We are still high and dry with no prospect for rain any time soon. I don't mind surprises! Will try to be patient. Watch the Southeast Coast, especially you who live in that area. Have a good night and may God bless us all

Isabel



- Other Concerns
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 00:49:19 -0400
Since this is quiet time in the hurricane season I would like to focus on 
another matter that does not seem to concern most people. The tsunami signs 
were not posted as decorations. They are meant to tell us that we can have a 
tsunami one day and we must run to a higher elevation. When was the last 
tsunami? I should have done the research. I do know there was one in 1772 
because Alexander Hamilton as a teen had the misfortune of suffering both a 
"HUGO" and a tsunami almost at the same time. The curious thing about it was 
that his homeland Nevis was struck by an earthquake the same afternoon as the 
storm, triggering a 15 foot tsunami. This information was taking from the book
ALEXANDER HAMILTON by Ron Chernow, pg. 36. Now, what urged me to mention this 
topic is the fact that there has been an increase in seismic activity and I 
truly believe we need to prepare. What is VITEMA doing about this? And are the 
sirens going to be effective? Many people claim they don't hear them. They are 
simply not loud enough for such an emergency. I have in mind to ask 
individuals, a cross section, what the sign means to them and if they hear the 
sirens or not. That should be interesting.

Something very interesting to read is what Dave has to say about the rest of 
the hurricane season. Check it out on stormcarib's home page.

Also, we did not get rain out of the second tropical wave as I'd hoped. But if 
you are living somewhere on the Southeast Coast, be on guard.

Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel






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Sent from my iPhone

- Rain--Little by Little
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 21 Jul 2015 23:39:19 -0400
Last night when I wrote there was a 70% chance of rain. We got the whole lot! 
Tonight, we were promised 40% and we got it! I think the ground soaked it in,
and soon this sad part of our garden in the photo should be smiling again! A 
second tropical wave is approaching tomorrow. It is forecast to contain "deep 
moisture". That should mean more than these past two waves. Little by little is 
better than nothing at all. Be well, be happy, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- 70% Chance of Rain?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 20:52:05 -0400
This must be from the first tropical wave. Well, we're waiting and ready. I was 
so happy to hear that California got a lot of rain from former Hurricane 
DOLORES. We don't want any major happening in order to get rain, but then, we 
think again. If those two waves in the forecast materialize they would make a 
huge difference. So, let's keep on hoping and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Photos were taken this evening!



Sent from my iPhone

- Rain and Red-footed Baby Tortoises
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2015 00:23:19 -0400
We are waiting for both. Rain should come next week with the two tropical waves 
that are passing through and the babies the following week. The eggs were laid 
three months ago; the ones in the photo belong to a friend. Good night and may 
God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Go Green!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 18 Jul 2015 23:35:45 -0400
"In time of drought, keep a green outlook on life".

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As for 93 L, it could not out wrestle the Dust Buster! We should be grateful, 
for, otherwise, it could've become a very large storm.
A welcome consolation is that it will arrive in our area as a tropical wave by 
Thursday, and before that one, a couple others will be passing through, 
according 
To the NWS. Should be an interesting week. Be happy, be well…may God bless us 
all.

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Sent from my iPhone

- Let it RAIN!!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2015 21:01:34 -0400
Dave is right: he's hearing it from all sides. We are getting more desperate as 
time goes by without any rain worth running for cover.
At this point we look at 93L and say"bring it on..". But, alas, the great Dust 
Buster is also waiting !  Will 93L get pass the danger and come to our rescue ? 
We shall find out more with each day. I certainly would like the natural 
vegetation to continue strengthening the 14ft cut on the slope behind our house 
to build it on a flat surface; without rain big time erosion is very possible. 
So, do we all agree we won't mind a tropical storm, or at the very least, a 
Depression?May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Wake Up, Everybody!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 17 Jul 2015 13:50:00 -0400
There's a potential disturbance in the Atlantic. Labeled 93 L. The NHC is 
keeping a close watch. We have to do the same. Let's hope that the Dust Buster 
goes into action and destroy it before it destroys lands and limbs. Track it 
with stormcarib, or any of the trackers offered on stormcarib listed below the 
updates from the islands.
Always be prepared! God bless us.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Weakened TW
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 16 Jul 2015 23:10:35 -0400
Too good to be true. The TW weakened so much by wind shear and Saharan dust 
that by noon there was not a drop of rain. What a disappointment. Anyway, we 
won't give up hoping. The next best chance for rain is Monday into Tuesday. 
Have a good night
and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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About three rain clouds came by this morning, one more intense than the others.

Sent from my iPhone

- The Big Sun
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2015 23:54:04 -0400
Somehow it seemed bigger this evening.. Nearer? One thing for sure is nearer 
and that's the active tropical wave which is to mix with a Low creating 
advection. I asked our Nissan friend/ mechanic to check the worrisome rattling 
front left side of my car, then we discussed the upcoming weather. I asked him 
what advection meant: "a hell of a lot of rain!" Suspense!
Good night and  may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Fwd: rain?
  • From: Gert van Dijken <gert at vandijken.com>
  • Date: Wed, 15 Jul 2015 16:29:11 -0700

From: chico <lschill at viaccess.net>
Date: Wed, Jul 15, 2015 at 3:28 PM
Subject: rain?


Hello
From La Grange,  Frederiksted, St.Croix
first time caller long time listener
WOW! We all been ina long dry spell as allayu !!
only da lizard and iguana get a drink!
we say “when da neybah buy watta da rain gonna fall”
give thanks and praises
WEST IS BEST!
CHICO
 


- Great Weather Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2015 23:49:21 -0400
Good night, all! Be sure to read Weather Words of Encouragement. 

Blessings,
Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Weather Words of Encouragment
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 14 Jul 2015 22:44:07 -0500
Hello Again! In case you did not read this latest forecast from the National Weather Service in San Juan, it's a must read! It could be a balloon which will burst just when we are dreaming big, but here goes:

"An active tropical wave is expected to affect the region Thursday. As a result decent moisture associated with this system is expected to "advect' across the region beginning on Thursday morning and continuing through Thursday night...."in addition, a strong Upper Level Low is expected to move in from the east" ..This means that more showers and thunderstorms could be in store for the local islands on Thursday. Does that sound great, or what!! But will it actually happen??
Two systems coming together to give us a lot of rain is almost a dream. We have been in the desert. Well, not really, but the drought has lasted way too long for us who are accustomed to showers on a more frequent basis. We are not accustomed to Autumn leaves and that's exactly what we've had. The poor trees, if they are not resistant, lose their leaves, They stand in shame!

(Then, guess what!! An intense area of Saharan dust is expected to affect the region.)

Let's hope and pray that those words of encouragement for rain will stick and that we will get that much needed rain. May God bless us all.

Isabel

I was not familiar with the word "advect". Every day we can learn something new.

 Dictionary: Advect means to convey horizontally by advection..

Thesaurus: Advect--convey by horizontal mass movement of a fluid. "Energy advected from the environment."

Now it's beginning to sound scary. All the bare slopes are going to come down with that type of activity. Well, let's hope that won't be the scenario. Will keep you posted.

- Sunshine on Gallows Bay
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2015 23:47:35 -0400
I went to the Hardware store today at this place and I was admiring the 
buildings around when it occurred to me that it was not called Gallows Bay for 
nothing. Creepy to think that men were hanged there most likely on a sunny day 
like today, for who would chance getting soaked for a hanging. But then again, 
the gallows could have been to "hoist slaughtered cattle", as they do in some 
countries. I think I prefer that, not so gruesome, after all, if we eat meat, 
it has to be slaughtered first. So, that beautiful place in the sun was called 
Gallows Bay. It was clearer today and there is a good chance of "moisture" this 
week. Perhaps the rainy season is cranking up? And the third storm of the 
hurricane season, CLAUDETTE, had her day today. People are getting concerned 
that for a "quiet" season there should be three already. That is why hurricane 
preparedness is so important. They can come fast and furious, especially with 
the climate having gone mad, anything can happen. So, let's sleep content 
knowing that we have all that we need in case of an emergency. May God bless us 
all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Saharan Dust
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2015 18:01:37 -0400
Good Sunday Evening! 

At 5 p.m. the sun is usually blazing a trail to the west for a glorious sunset. 
Not today. We cannot look directly at the sun without the dust as in this 
photo. A tropical wave passed by over the weekend followed by Saharan dust. 
This is it. It looks as if we have to run for cover at any moment; no such luck 
. It's only dust! During the course of the following week two other waves are 
forecast to pass through each time with Saharan dust following. It's possible 
we shall see more rain as the waves will interact with an upper level low. So 
goes the forecast.
Have a wonderful rest of Sunday and may God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- A Wetter Pattern..
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2015 00:29:26 -0500
Good night/morning to All! I  just lost one update so I sent the photo separate. Well, it almost seems like a wetter pattern could be the thing for the near future. An upper level low to our east is about to make its presence known while two waves will be skipping through. The second is going to mix with the low to show a serious increase in "moisture". It always bothers me when I read that word. We don't want moisture, thank you. We really would like some rain. in any case, the fact is that at this point we could be seeing some more activity. I should not be too optimistic, but when I look around and see the ground begging for water, one must be optimistic. I must say I was surprised by the sudden burst of rain we got Friday into Saturday. Totally unexpected, but very welcome. I was so happy to hear the rain on the roof. it had been a long time since I heard that sound. It was a saturating kind of rain, so I think the ground was also happy. We need more to make a difference. So, I keep hoping and praying that soon the picture will be a wetter pattern. Sunshine is always in abundance. For those of you hesitating to visit at this time of year, have no fear. It is truly the best time to visit. There are many visitors right now, so don't let the words "Hurricane Season" scare you as it did a family who decided on another vacation spot on the mainland. far from the Caribbean; yet Severe Weather with tornadoes is more likely on the mainland. Be well, be happy, and may God bless you and me.

Isabel

- A Wetter Pattern?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2015 01:00:22 -0400
Happy Sunday! Blessings!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- The Lagoon Oasis
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 11 Jul 2015 00:28:40 -0400
As I was out driving with my weather buddy friend from Virginia, I just had to 
stop and take a picture of this 
enchanting oasis along the lagoon. It is the creation of a woman who planted 
one tree at a time over 30 years.
As you see from the photo,
It's all so green that one can only think that most of the plants and trees 
must be drought resistant. The Government recognized the tremendous effort made 
by this woman, that she was honored in a ceremony ; the dirt roads were paved 
and a huge board proclaimed it a park named after her. As an older woman now, 
she still dedicates time to adding and making improvements. It's become a real 
oasis to the many people who visit it or spend time there in various 
activities. Our island has been blessed in so many ways. May God continue to 
bless us all, here and there where you are.

Isabel 


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Sent from my iPhone

- The Short, Fat, Blue Water Tank
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2015 23:38:45 -0400
The roof of our house consist of a design of three; when it rains, the water is 
channeled to flow into the cisterns through various entry points. The roof over 
the back patio of the house, helps to keep the short, fat, blue tank full for 
the needs of plants in the lower garden (see photo). It currently serves as 
well for the deer which visit often. They drink from the green, plastic sled in 
the second photo.

The rain water from the new roof over the west deck goes into another blue 
tank, this one tall and slimmer. That water is used for water ing potted plants 
and others in the ground within the vicinity of the tank, as well as for the 
tortoises. Even the gazebo's roof is designed to channel the rain water into a 
tank recycled from the water pump. So, we try to capture as much of the rain we 
get which seems to be more scarce with each day. Each drop is precious. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Dry Sea Grape leaves
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 7 Jul 2015 23:43:32 -0400
Today's Tropical Wave passed us to the South and it was as expected. A 
smattering of drops and that was it! We have never seen our Sea Grape tree so 
dry. That goes to show how long and serious this drought has been. We are truly 
blessed that there are plants and flowers which bloom best in dry weather. We 
have quite a few. Fruit trees don't do as well because they require the 
moisture to produce. The roots need water to carry the nutrients through the 
"veins" of the tree. Just when I was hoping those clusters of grapes would 
mature and ripen they dried up and all the leaves are turning brown and falling 
off. All the fruit trees have lost near future harvests.
Rain! If only! May God bless us all.

Isabel


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Sent from my iPhone

- Pre-drought Days
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2015 23:34:52 -0400
Good night, all! This is the shortest update ever. Tropical Waves are coming 
but apparently not to us. However, when it does rain, the result will be like 
the photo of the wharf: green lawns, clear blue skies. I took this photo from 
my car window before the drought.
Sweet dreams and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Drought Resistant Flowers
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 6 Jul 2015 00:02:17 -0400
Happy Sunday!  Here are some of the flowers that brighten our days when 
everything else is dry and Autumn-like. These splashes of color greet one 
around every bend. It's amazing how such delicate petals survive heat and wind. 
And that spray of orchids which survived the 130mph wind of Omar! An 
unbelievable sight. When the rainy season begins everything else shall begin to 
flourish again. So far, our much needed rain is being snuffed out by the dust. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 34 - Very Breezy 4th of July
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 4 Jul 2015 23:53:13 -0400
Good night, all! It was not just breezy, it was downright windy! It almost blew 
me over at Tamarind Reef where the attached photos were taken. The sea was 
somewhat angry and a rip current alert was issued earlier. The inlet was 
quieter. Can't really complain about the weather; for the most part it was very 
good. The Saharan dust is hanging around which makes it almost impossible to 
get rain showers. We have to be patient with the dust; it acts like a buster to 
our advantage. It prevents the waves out of Africa from forming into storms. 
Thank God! May He bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Morning Clouds Herald the Wave
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2015 23:26:41 -0400
It looked very dramatic above the church, and it looked very dramatic as I 
drove past the wharf; the sea was very choppy, and the wind was definitely 
dramatic, but it all amounted to nothing. It was another dry tropical wave. By 
the looks of things the Tuesday Wave which held a potential 2" of rain may not 
materialize after all. We'll have to be satisfied with the drips for now. The 
wave passing by tonight does not hold much of a  promise either. I counted 6 
potential disturbances in the Pacific.!! Plain rain would be the ideal for us. 
May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Early Morning Rain
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 3 Jul 2015 00:32:26 -0400
This morning we were blessed with some much needed rain. I think "rain" is 
going to remain in the "much needed" category for a long time, no matter how 
much it rains. The rest of the day was breezy. Very pleasant to sit in my own 
Secret Garden, be a contemplative, and enjoy. WU has a 60% chance of rain 
overnight, however, there's dust in the air. We know what that means. I wish 
you all a very good night and God's richest blessings.

Isabel

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     Thursday morning 




Sent from my iPhone

- Another Weak One
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 2 Jul 2015 00:16:06 -0400
Godod Night, All! July is here and it brings the promise of some more rain. 
With each month it should get better as it gets wetter.
This morning it was real stormy even with rumbles of thunder. Then it passed 
on without a drop.

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 There's more Saharan dust following this wave. "Next chance of showers arrives 
Friday/Friday night according to GFS as a wave brushes past, but a better 
chance next Tuesday/Wednesday as deeper moisture envelope local islands with 
around 2 inches of precipitable water." WU (Weather Underground).  Wow! That 
sounds great! Let's hope and pray we get a break with this dry weather. And may 
God bless us all.

Isabel

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Our Government House on King Street in downtown  Christiansted.

Sent from my iPhone

- Day 30 - Waiting for Rain
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 1 Jul 2015 00:06:55 -0400
Good night, All!

There are some signs of a TW in the area. No rain as yet, possibly some other 
parts of the island are "getting wet". Our once proud African Tulip tree has 
lost most of its leaves. It was so dense before that we could not see through 
it.
It has been looking Autumn-like for some trees. The second month of the 
Hurricane Season, July, is around the bend. We hope it brings us more frequent 
showers. Be well. Be happy. May God bless us all. 

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    The African Tulip Tree.


Sent from my iPhone

- Non-Weather Related
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2015 00:00:38 -0400
It was not the weather which played a part in the accident on the Bypass this 
morning. Somehow the vehicle my daughter was driving failed and in trying to 
avoid the traffic it tumbled a few times and crashed against the slope. The 
rest of the day was spent at Emergency. As we waited we enjoyed the refreshing 
breeze albeit laden with dust. It was better than the breeze produced by two 
fans inside. Back home hours later, the soothing evening lights and sounds were 
a blessed comfort. Those clouds sprinkled a bit, otherwise, the next wave is 
due Tuesday into Wednesday. Bruises and scratches and the shock of earlier 
events, were gradually replaced by laughter. We are very grateful to God that 
we were all accounted for at the end of the day. May He continue to bless you 
and us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- A Very Dusty Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 29 Jun 2015 00:13:23 -0400
Good Night, All! This was a long day, lots going on. Since I was too busy to 
take a photo of the dust, I shall include some of a clearer day and everyone's 
favorite subject, my " secret garden". Another tropical wave is in the forecast 
for Tuesday into Wednesday. Let's hope it rains on our side of paradise. May 
God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Accurate Forecast
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 27 Jun 2015 23:48:47 -0400
A weak tropical wave was expected and that's what we got. Though the skies 
looked promising there was only a sprinkling now and then with the glorious 
sunshine in between it all. There are other TWs in the Atlantic heading this 
way perhaps there will be rain in the near future. This is usually the most 
quiet time of the Hurricane Season. It's the best time to be here. No other 
season offers such an abundance of flowering trees and tropical fruit. If you 
prefer the sea to be less chilled (warm), this is the place. So, never be 
afraid of traveling here at this time. The only time it would not be advisable 
is if there was an actual TS or Hurricane heading to this area. This is going 
to be a quiet year, according to the experts, not much is expected over all, 
however, there's a below average number of storms predicted. The one big one 
could be ours. If any of you, dear readers, have not read my account of how I 
handled Hurricane Lenny all by myself, I would be happy to email it to you. 
Most of you have probably read it already when I posted it on this website with 
my update. Except for the Canadian Women's Soccer team which did not advance to 
the Finals of the World Cup, the rest of us should have a good night.
May God bless us all.

Isabel

Photos of a weak TW: 

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Sent from my iPhone

- The Weather & A Charming Attempt
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 26 Jun 2015 23:45:48 -0400
All it takes is sunshine, some moisture, ( rain would be better), and a seed. 
Somehow the soil, the earth     around it plays such a charming part in the 
process that no matter where the seed falls it grows, with the help of the 
current weather, be it wet or dry. Now, this morning I delighted in a small, 
very green plant growing in a painted wheelbarrow in which I once planted 
flowers. On closer look it turned out to be a tree! A Flamboyant tree! Truly it 
was a charming attempt by 
such a small seed to even imagine it can grow into a
tall, wide spread canopied tree in a wheelbarrow! Some plants thrive during 
droughts and others dry up forever. The Flamboyant tree thrives.! There's hope 
for the little one in the big garden, but not in the wheelbarrow. I hope that 
the weak wave coming in 
this weekend will provide some refreshing moisture. Have a good night and may 
God bless you and us all.

Isabel

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"Baby" Flamboyant in a wheelbarrow 

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Flamboyant Tree

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A Flamboyant cluster of flowers.

Sent from my iPhone

- The 6:00 P.M Sun
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2015 23:23:25 -0400
 We were at Shoys late this afternoon where these photos were taken. The sea 
was refreshing after a hot day. Beginning on Friday, the chance of rain starts 
going up. A weak Tropical Wave is going to enter the Caribbean. We still need 
lots more rain, but I have mixed feelings about it for tomorrow evening, 
because 
of the Jazz concert that takes place at the wharf on the last Friday of the 
each month. So, hopefully, the rain will fall much later. Have a very good 
night. Be happy and may God bless you and us all. 

Isabel

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Thursday morning at home.

Sent from my iPhone

- The Flaming Tree
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2015 00:24:09 -0400
Hello! Thought I would share a photo of the Flamboyant, or Flaming Tree, or 
Royal Poinciana, before the next Tropical Wave arrives this weekend (we hope). 
The tree is blooming and with hundreds of "buttons" yet to open, it will last 
for at least two months longer. The windy conditions and
heavy rain of the TW brought down many flowers forming a beautiful red carpet 
around the tree. This tree is what I call "the Hurricane Lenny Tree". It is in 
the lower garden . I had to straighten it after that hurricane in 1999. My 
pride and joy. There are seven blooming. It is a sight to behold! Too bad that 
I cannot take a photo of them; it would have to be taken from above to get the 
full view. I wish to thank all of you who responded to my question. I will be 
replying to each of you soon. Be well, be happy and may God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- The Gardens Awake
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 24 Jun 2015 00:06:36 -0400
After yesterday's rain our garden is showing the beginning of a big smile. The 
spell was long and dry. The saturating rain which provided a quenching draught, 
went deep. But it was not so all over the island as I thought. A woman at the 
Gas Station this morning said she did not get a drop. What..?? I could not 
believe my ears. I asked where she lived, and she replied, "Upper Love". Yes, 
dear reader, we have many romantic names of Estates which go back to Danish 
times. There's also a "Lower Love", Anna's Hope, Peter's Rest, Catherine's 
Rest, William's Delight, to name a few. More rain is in the forecast Friday 
into Saturday with another tropical wave. A good dose every now and then would 
keep everyone smiling. Hopefully everyone gets it this time. Have a good night, 
sweet dreams, and may God bless us all.

Isabel 

P.S. Need some feedback. Are the photos too large? Print too small? 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 22 - What a Beautiful TW ! (Part 2)
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2015 22:43:18 -0400
What an intense game to match the intense TW.! The atmosphere is still charged 
with a lot of energy. A second round of showers and thunderstorms are following 
the TW into the Eastern Caribbean. We are most grateful for all the rain we can 
get out of this one. There are two other tropical waves heading this way. If 
the Saharan dust allows, we can be getting into a rainy pattern. So, all is 
well! My daughter got thunderstorms and a USA World Cup win over Colombia for 
her birthday today. It couldn't be better. May God bless her and us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- What a Beautiful TW!!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2015 21:29:20 -0400
We're past the first half of the World Cup Match. The U,S. is leading 2 - 0 ! 
Later perhaps we shall get round two of the TW

Sent from my iPhone

- Fantastic !!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2015 12:21:48 -0400
Rain! Rain! Thunder! The whole caboodle with this Tropical Wave. Now this is 
the way a TW should behave! May God bless us all!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Father's Day & the Weather
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2015 07:37:23 -0400
G'Mornin!😀 All the dads here had good weather. I hope you did too. I managed to 
snap this attached photo at the nick of time. We were so busy between the 
Women's World Cup matches and getting a celebration dinner out to our new 
covered deck that the daylight was rapidly ending. It was another very hot, dry 
day. I looked at the radar to our east and saw a huge blob which looks so 
promising! IF ONLY! Last night I noticed that WU had a 60% chance of rain for 
us. Wow! Nothing happened during the night, but today is another day, another 
chance, another opportunity for MN to do us the favor of some soothing, 
saturating rain. Have a great day everyone and if you will be rooting for Team 
U.S.A tonight, know that I will be with you in spirit. 😃 may God bless us all 
and may we have rain. 

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- No TUTT / Wave Merge
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 20 Jun 2015 21:13:40 -0400
Good Saturday Night! Here we are still waiting for rain. Now, I found out that 
the enhanced moisture from the combined trough and wave is not going to happen. 
The one is moving faster than the other. We may not get anything at all from 
the wave. Therefore, the can sit and watch everything disintegrate. The photos 
show the slopes that are now bare. Walking past them today with a friend she 
suggested strengthening the slopes with wood pieces, terracing the length to 
avoid erosion. Rain will definitely bring it all down eventually if we don't 
strengthen it now. So, we'll prepare and work and hope and pray. May God bless 
us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 19 - Another Fuzzy Wuzzy Day
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2015 21:31:51 -0400
Hi ! Today's photo shows the end of the daylight hours. It was so hot this 
afternoon that we all took off to the beach to cool off. It was refreshing, but 
even the sea is feeling warm. We were blessed this morning with a few precious 
drops of rain and that was it for the day, however, according to the Scientific 
Discussion on WU (Weather Underground) "at upper levels, a weak TUTT will drop 
towards the Leeward islands tonight.."A TUTT ?!
Thought you'd never ask. A TUTT - is a Tropical Upper Level Tropospheric 
Trough. I had to look it up. If you have a TUTT coming at you, it's wise to 
know. Well, a trough usually means rain. That would be great!
Then on Monday another TW passes trough. Sooner or later we are going to get 
some rain. Let's not hold our breath! I want to wish all Fathers' a very happy 
day on Sunday . May God bless you and us all!

Isabel

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I 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 18 - Extremely Dusty, Saharan Style
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2015 22:42:23 -0400
We were forewarned that this would be the heaviest SAL( Saharan Air Layer) day 
of the year so far. Perhaps it was not as bad as we thought it would be. 
Visibility was 10 miles or less for airplanes. I really would like to know what 
is happening in the Sahara to cause such a dense plume of dust across the 
Atlantic to us and beyond. Maybe there's someone out there who can answer that  
question?

The SAL has always been our friend as far as inhibiting the formation of 
hurricanes, but unfortunately it also limits the amount of rainfall from the 
TWs. We need the rain and less protection from our dusty friend. So, this is a 
real pistarkle! This word is not in the dictionary and I hope it's not an 
"oops" word. It just sounds like the ideal word to describe the current 
predicament. This dust is forecast to continue into the weekend then it will be 
followed by another TW. Be good, sleep well, have a good night and  may God 
bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- The Wannabe Tropical Wave
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 17 Jun 2015 16:19:56 -0400
Good Afternoon, All!  This was to be a day of "numerous showers " and 
thunderstorms as a TW passed through, but instead we're having partially cloudy 
and sunny skies. Very warm. We were told by a friend in Germany that we should 
send some warmth. We are dry and millions on the mainland are experiencing 
flooding, hail,  and all sorts of inclement weather as a result of the slow 
passage of TS BILL. Of these three which would we prefer? I choose my place 
here. I wish I can share our warmth with those who are cold, our dry TW with 
those visited by a very wet BILL. May we all bloom where we are planted and may 
God bless us all. Keep smiling.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Signs of the TW
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 22:26:16 -0400
Good Evening! We're looking forward to the rain which is expected later tonight 
into tomorrow. Also keeping an eye on Texas with the arrival of TS BILL dumping 
some 12 inches of rain so far. That is devastating in an already saturated 
region where so many people died as the result of the floods caused by 
continuous rain. We just need some good rain. Is that coming tonight? I hope 
this will not be an evaporated TW. Following this Wave is the heaviest of dust 
so far (dense?) according to the info in the Scientific Discussion. It will 
last through the weekend thinning out with each day until the next TW on 
Monday. Have a restful night. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Tropical Storm BILL!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 00:55:47 -0400
We certainly have to be prepared. ! BILL has formed after all ! To all our 
family and friends there, be safe!
God bless you!

Isabel

Sent from my iPhone

- Day 15 - A TW and a Fresh Cement Pour
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2015 00:41:44 -0400
Hello! What a dilemma! We want rain, but tomorrow is  road repair day. A cement 
truck will be pouring and people will be spreading it in place. Not being able 
to pave the whole road, the large holes will be filled in. Cement, as we all 
know, should have an adequate amount of time to set, but there is a tropical 
wave in the forecast precisely for later in the day, or maybe earlier. I hope 
it does come regardless. It is hot and dry.

In the Gulf of Mexico, a disturbance (91-L ) is churning. It does not seem 
likely to become a name storm before it goes into Texas before it reaches the 
shore. I hope the folks there are prepared for more flooding.

On our side, let us just sleep and dream of perfect conditions for the cement 
pour. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- The Weather & San Andreas
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 14 Jun 2015 21:56:38 -0400
Still shaking from the movie we saw today! Whew! It reminded me of the 360 
Caribbean News earthquake warning earlier this year about an overdue earthquake 
in this region. When I checked, VITEMA did not know anything about it, 
therefore, other than a very inefficient tsunami siren exercise that most 
people don't hear, we are far from prepared for such a disaster. The main 
concern is the Hurricane  Season and the drought.

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This has been the driest it has ever been. The spurts of rain we've been having 
cannot make a difference.
Hopefully, this coming Wednesday, the next wave will produce more rain than the 
previous ones have so far done. The green plastic sled in two photos is kept 
filled for the deer family which makes itself at home each evening. May God 
bless us all.

Isabel


Sent from my iPhone

- Weather Buddies
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sat, 13 Jun 2015 23:22:50 -0400
Good Night, All! One of my weather buddies arrived today from Virginia! She has 
been reading all my past updates and made a decision to spend a month on St. 
Croix, to explore and to enjoy the scenery much
of which she saw in my photos. I was so happy to see her happy. It was lucky 13 
for both of us! We had a great time and she even saw the two fawns in the lower 
garden. They were much closer today.

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Their mom was calling and they paid no heed. They were interested in us. In 
this photo you can see the dryness of the land. ( the green leaves at the upper 
left hand corner are from the Mango tree)  Last night's rain was not enough to 
paint the grass green. The next chance for rain will be next Wednesday as a 
quick moving tropical wave passes through. Have a wonderful Sunday and may God 
bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Rainy Night! Yeah!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 12 Jun 2015 23:30:50 -0400
It's raining as I write. This is beneficial to plants that are not satisfied 
with a bucket of water. I'm sure everything is going to start looking up from 
now on instead of drooping. Not so for these drought resistant flowers,

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they are not pleased at all with rain. But am I ever happy. I thought I might 
have to import rain from another sky. As a matter of fact, a "weather friend" 
from Virginia arrives tomorrow. She offered to bring us rain. How about that.! 
Cool, mon! The rain we're having is to last through Saturday, then dry days 
will follow. God bless us all. Keep smiling!

Isabel

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- Tropical Wave
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Jun 2015 23:33:25 -0400
Good Night, All! We've been having that wonderful sound of rain on our roof! A 
tropical wave is forecast to enter the Eastern Caribbean Friday into Saturday. 
This one was initially going to miss us, but lucky for us, we're getting some 
stray showers. We have a new roof over our west deck. A tall tank was installed 
to catch the water; a tremendous plus! 

Blessings,
Isabel

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Christiansted's evening sky. 

Sent from my iPhone

- Day 11 - Daze of Wine & Showers
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 11 Jun 2015 18:18:23 -0400
Hello! Yesterday we were surprised by rain as we sipped whatever at the Gaz. It 
was a jubilant moment! It added to the farewell celebration for three marvelous 
friends. 

Our weather seems to be taking a turn for the better, more moisture. That's 
about all we can call it these days. However, according to the GFS computer 
model and others in agreement, there is a better chance for rain Tuesday and 
Wednesday as a tropical wave approaches the local islands. This would be great; 
many gardens are suffering along with their owners as they see their prize 
plants withering. We need a good saturation. I could be sorry to wish for such 
a rain if it comes. We have two areas of a slope that have been shaved clean by 
deer or scratched by chicken "families", that can result in landslides. Ah 
well, we do need the rain. So, for now let's have it. At this moment it's very 
cloudy, cool, and even drizzly. Yeah! May God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Yesterday looks like now.

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This morning looks like almost everyday.


Sent from my iPhone

- Day- 9. Come, RAIN,, Come!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 9 Jun 2015 23:55:23 -0400
Just a few words to close off this dry day. It seems, though that our song and 
rain dance paid off. The scientific discussion on WU indicates that a TW, early 
next week, "shows a better chance of showers for the local islands". The 
ferocious cloud today did nothing for us. I hope and pray that the next wave 
will definitely bring us rain. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Some Like It Hot
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 8 Jun 2015 21:36:44 -0400
That's what we have. Hot, hot, hot! So if you like it, come on down!2  We 
cooled off in the sea late afternoon at Shoys Beach. Returning home we noticed 
thick, dark clouds gathering, but no rain. There are scattered showers in the 
forecast every day; some of it falls into the sea and some on other parts of 
the island. I am waiting. An increase of "moisture" is expected between 
Wednesday and Friday. They don't dare call it rain. We shall see. Be well, be 
happy, and feel blessed by God each day.

Isabel

Shoys Beach:
.

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Sent from my iPhone

- The Longest Dry Spell
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 22:30:43 -0400
Good Sunday Night, All!
Look at the Pink Poui tree! (Attached) It has dried up. In it's former days of 
glory it sported healthy green leaves and lovely pink, bell shaped flowers, 
which cascaded to the ground.

It does not look good, this dry spell. According to the synopsis on the 
Scientific Discussion on Weather Underground:

"No significant weather event or rain producer are expected for the forecast 
area in the foreseeable future".

On the other hand, though late, the Flamboyant trees are starting to bloom (see 
attached). Perhaps there is hope yet for the Pink Poui. I look forward to rain 
one day, in the meanwhile, there is always recorded rain for those of us who 
like to listen to it. May God bless us all.

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 6 - Hurricane Season is Beautiful!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Sun, 7 Jun 2015 00:11:45 -0400
Good Night, All! 

The day started out with high drama, but since that did not have anything to do 
with the weather I shall not go into that. I will, instead, quote the weather 
synopsis from Weather Underground,  

"limited shower conditions will prevail tonight across the local islands as a 
drier and more stable air mass has moved over the area today."

So, no hope of rain for the next week. Nevertheless, dry as it is, I am amazed 
at how Nature continuously surprise us with color in the garden. Late this 
afternoon,    I was treated with another kind of flower. I will attach a
photo of it as well as one of the last light of this day. No two days are 
alike. Praise the Lord, and may he bless us all!

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 5 - tropical wave?
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Fri, 5 Jun 2015 22:44:04 -0400
The photo shows what it looked like. Nice cloud, but not even a tear drop. 
Well, no need to fret, a very eventful day was survived and all is well. The 
air was definitely cooler, a plus. Maybe Saturday will be the winner. Speaking 
of which, Life Stinks; we saw that movie with Mel Brooks this evening. See it, 
you'll enjoy it. Be well. May God bless us all.

Isabel

Please excuse the silly mistakes I make at times in the text. Thank you.

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 4 - They say it's going to be a boring season
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Thu, 4 Jun 2015 23:00:56 -0400
Before I bid you goodnight, let me tell you that's it's the best time of year 
to visit, and not boring at all. Who wants an inquisitive, unruly, and 
hyperactive hurricane season, anyway?

Today was a perfectly, beautiful day. Late afternoon we went for a swim in the 
Caribbean "Lake". It was so still and and truly "out of this world", in another 
word "heavenly"and it was just us there. It was at the end of a very hectic day 
so it was especially nice. So, feel free to visit and enjoy the hurricane 
season. Believe me, hurricanes DO NOT drop out of the sky like tornadoes. 

However, we need rain. The  tropical wave which has been in the forecast for 
Friday/Saturday is weak most likely resulting in no rain, then the Saharan dust 
moves in again to limit any chance of rain probably for the next week. Well, 
there are the 5 dry days our builder needs after he coats the newly added roof! 
 See? Not boring at all! Have a good night and may God bless us all.

Isabel 

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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 3 - today's weather is for the birds
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2015 11:02:44 -0400
Hello! Smile and make someone's day! The "slow" Hurricane Season forecast 
should make us all smile. I remember laughing out loud the night before LENNY 
arrived when we were hit with a massive blackout during strobe lightning. What 
was so funny? The man on the radio just said, "We are so lucky to have 
electricity during such a lightning storm!" Wham! A blackout!
That was very funny! Anyway, today the weather is for the birds, not for drying 
clothes on the line.
Let's have a great day, and may God bless us all.

Isabel

Attachment: IMG_1413.MOV
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Sent from my iPhone

- Day 2 Looking Good!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2015 13:45:16 -0400
Good afternoon!

Parts of the island is getting copious amounts of rain; as a matter of fact, my 
grandson was in the midst of final exams at Country Day ( for those of you 
familiar with that school  ) while it was pouring outside. The rain cloud in 
the photo was the one heading there. It squeezed some drizzle over us as it 
passed by. 😝

There is a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean on Friday 5th. In all 
fairness, we should get lots of rain! May God bless is all!

Isabel

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Sent from my iPhone

- Hurricane Season 2015 - Here we go again!
  • From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
  • Date: Mon, 1 Jun 2015 19:00:45 -0500
Helloooooo, Friends, Neighbors, and Countrymen!

First of all, I want to congratulate Gert on his 20 years of service through the Caribbean Hurricane Network which helps us to be better prepared in the event of an approaching storm. Likewise, relatives and friends can follow, through the updates, the events from far away and be informed of what's going on before, during, and after a storm. This helps them to know, often, right away that all is not as bad as it may look on the screen and that all is well. In the event that communication is lost via phones, there is an almost guaranteed update from someone in the affected area that can quickly quell anxieties. It is a great service and I am pleased that donations have been made throughout the years even from those "fans" who follow avidly the updates from the special correspondents.

Having said that, we received the good news earlier this year that it is going to be a "quiet season". Thanks, but we shall prepare anyway as if it will be the worse season. We know that it only takes one, ANA showed up early, and who knows when the next one, BILL, appears somewhere. The important thing to be aware of is that we need to be prepared in the event of a storm, as well as any other disaster. Also, it does not have to be a name storm to have a disaster, just heavy continuous RAIN can cause Flash Floods, severe flooding, and even death as we have seen recently in the news in Texas and Oklahoma. However, we have had an extended drought this year and surely look forward to some good, soaking rain. These past days our island has been treated to some, mostly scattered showers, some heavier than others, and what a relief. We look forward to more, so that the lushness of the green will be more abundant.

I wish Dave and everyone well. Do the right thing, be prepared, and help the helpless to be prepared. As always may God bless us all.

Isabel



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