Unlike St. Martin, here in West End, Anguilla we have not had a drop of rain all day.  I have heard of heavy rain in the east (where it is raining right now) and the Valley all day long, but we have watched storms pass us all day/week.  We have had only ¾ in. all week long, an my cistern is still only 1/3 full.  Maybe tonight.

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

We are in even worse shape than St. Martin he in Anguilla with only 24% of our yearly average.  Government is struggling to keep households supplied, relying on CuisinArt Resort’s de-sal plant to keep up with demand.  Rainfall chart attached.

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Actually partly sunny here right now, but there has been some change with Erika.  Air Force recon flights this AM report some strengthening with 50-60 mph winds and higher gusts.  It is forecast to pass 50 mi. south of us and the recon flight reports 55 mph winds out 30 mi. to the northeast.  Looks like some windy, squally weather for us later this afternoon.

Big concern for us?  Rain.  Latest satellite shows most of the rain concentrated to the south of the storm. The storm is just passing Antigua and radar shows very little rain to the north (see below).  While most of the forecasts out there just talk about wind, I am very skeptical of the 3-5 inches of rain for us – or anywhere even close to that.  In fact, this could be another “bust” just like Danny – and our serious drought conditions could persist. But maybe some showers – big one’s please.

No further updates from me – but please keep checking the NHC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

No real change from earlier reports – still passing mid-day Thurs. south of us.  Thunderstorm activity has decreased some today but is slowly building again – though not real impressive.  With these fluctuations up and down, the forecast accumulations of 3-5 inches of the much-needed rain for us could be a dream.  Let’s hope not. 

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

No change with the 11:00 AM NHC forecast from my 9:00 am report except now possible strengthening IS NOT in the forecast.

Please continue to check the NHC updates at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Not a lot of change since yesterday, except some decrease in forecast wind speeds.  But this is a large storm and it’s pushing the dry air ahead of it.  Because of that, there is a possibility for some strengthening before arriving here tomorrow.  Current forecast calls for passing 35 miles south of us mid-day Thursday, but rain/possible thunderstorms could arrive as early as later today. 

Because of the uncertainty re: track and wind conditions, I would PLAN for the following (based on current data):

·        Winds 50 mph, gust to low 60’s

·        Wind direction starting from NNE, clocking W then S and SE

·        Heavy rains of 2-4 in., possible more.  Some flooding in prone areas.

·        Wave heights of 10-12 ft. (buoy just south of storm today reported 9 ft. swells)

·        ANGLEC turning off power perhaps as early as tonight.

·        Ferries to stop later today, resume Friday sometime.

As always, check the NHC website at 11:00 am for the latest -

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Not a lot of change from the 11:00 AM NHC update except that the track has moved a little south of us – maybe pass about 20 mi. south. Good for us though tropical storm force winds (up to 34 mph) extend out 80 miles – mostly to the north.  Some increased thunderstorm activity today so could be very heavy rains.  Still need to plan for 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Wave heights are being forecast at 15 ft., but this is open waters. Still look for winds starting from the NNE early Thurs. morning, clocking around to W then SSE as the day goes on.

Try to update again in the morning.

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Sorry – just found out my wind directions were off by 180 degrees.  Should read:

Wind direction should be northerly slowly coming around to the W then quickly to SSE

Sorry,

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Right now looks like Erika will pass directly over/very close to AXA – maybe a little to our north – mid-day on Thursday as a tropical storm, with conditions starting to deteriorate very early Thursday morning.  This is a fast moving storm (20 mph) and changes in direction or strength will occur quickly.  Any movement to the north will be to our benefit – to the south, not so much.   

Right now we need to plan for winds of 70 mph with gust as high as 85 mph, with heavy rain in thunderstorms.  Some models are forecasting strengthening to Cat 1 (74 mph or +) but remains to be seen.  Wind direction should be southerly slowly coming around to the E then NE.  Expect moderate beach erosion on both north and south beaches, with waves in the 8 -12 foot range. We are under a TS Watch (St. Martin issued same at 8:00 AM) and expect the AXA EOC to be operational today.  Based on past storms, ferries will probably stop running sometime early Wed. and resume late Thursday/Fri.  Expect airports (AXA and SXM) to be closed on Thursday.

Keep a close watch on this storm, and plan for conditions at least as severe as Gonzalo last year.  The NHC is now issuing intermediate bulletins three hours after the complete updates so we will have plenty of information.  Next complete update is at 11:00 AM at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  Stay safe.

…and now the track has moved even further south of us – about 100 miles.  There goes our chances of some decent rain – don’t even know about a few showers.  Disappointing – but better than a hurricane.  Tropical storm watch discontinued for Fr. St. Martin – expect same for us shortly.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

No major changes with the 8:00 AM NHC forecast and I think at this point we can pretty much stand down.  As of the 5:00 AM forecast, the storm will pass about 75 mi. to our south as a weak tropical storm/tropical wave (34 mph winds or less.)  If stays the course, not much at all for us.  Unless major change, we can expect at worst stormy conditions and moderate winds and waves.  Big question – will it hold together/pass close enough to bring us some rain on Monday?  Right now, questionable and several forecasts say no.

This is the final update unless some major change.  Remember to keep checking http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ .  Now we need to watch the next storm which most models show going north of us.

Stay safe.

Just a quick update on the info I sent out earlier.  As of 5:00 PM, the forecast track has moved further north and Danny is forecast to pass just south of us – about 20 mi.  Winds could now be in the 35-45 mph range, and the chance of heavier rains for us is now increased – possibly the 2-4 inch forecasted.  That we can use.

Next NHC update will be 11:00 pm at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  Be sure to check.

Steve Donahue

www.anguilla-weather.com/

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

As of 11:00 am, now a Cat 1 hurricane, and additional weakening is expected to continue.  The Wind shear ahead of the storm has weakened a bit, but still 30 knots.  This is a tough little storm and continues to hold together even in dry air and wind shear.  AXA is now under a TS watch, and with a little over 48 hours to go before it passes to our south by about 35 miles (based on latest), guess we have to prepare for the worst.  Based on the current (11:00 am) forecast, we should probably prepare for: (CAUTION – ALL BASED ONLY ON THE 11:00 FORECAST)

·        Danny to pass just north of Saba as a 50-55 mph TS late Monday afternoon

·        Winds in AXA building to perhaps 25-35 mph Monday from the south coming around to the NE before dropping early Tuesday.

·        Seas building to somewhere in the 8-12’ range from the ESE late Monday

·        Rain??? Forecast says 2-4”, but with all the dry air, could be much less.  Monday into early Tuesday.

Because we are under a TS watch, I would expect:

·        ANGLEC to cut power sometime Monday as a precaution.

·        Major airlines to cancel Monday flights as a precaution into PJIA. (LIAT and Seaborne have already announced cancellations for AXA and SXM)

·        AXA ferries? 

As always, continue to check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for changes – and let’s hope for additional weakening and a quicker turn to the west…AND some rain, please!

If you look out your window here in AXA, you’ll see the problem Danny will be facing – Saharan dust.  Pretty bad (see below).  Plus by tomorrow, it will encounter 40 knots of wind shear.  All this will significantly weaken Danny.  But the question is how strong will it get before it starts to weaken.  Some think it is already a Cat 2, or will be shortly, with forecast for some additional strengthening before it starts to weaken.  Hurricane hunters should go out today, and then we’ll know a lot more.

The forecast track continues to move closer to us – now passing about 60 mi. to our south as a tropical storm Mon. afternoon.  So with the current forecast and tropical force winds extending to the north about 60 mi., right now we should expect minimal tropical storm conditions late Mon. afternoon.  The big question of course is rain.  This is a very small hurricane, and there’s a good possibility that could be pretty much a complete bust – we’ll see. But on a bright note, we did get 0.25 in. this morning.  Nice.

Not a lot of change since yesterday.  Biggest change - the forecast track has moved further north, with Danny forecast to pass us about 100 miles to the south vs. 150 miles yesterday (tropical storm force winds extend out about 70 miles).  But there is lots of dry air around us and while predictions call for Danny to be a hurricane sometime tomorrow, most models call for it to weaken by the time it reaches the islands Sunday/Monday and encounters dry air and wind shear.  Small storms are hard to predict, but now seems the most likely scenario is for the storm to weaken to tropical storm – or possibly even dissipate (long shot) – by the time it reaches us.  Of course, the storm could strengthen more than forecast over the next few days and be much stronger when it gets here. As I said yesterday – tough one to forecast – lots of fluctuations in strength the next few days.  As always, continue to check http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for updates/changes.

Also, there is a 2^nd storm just tracking off the coast of Africa which models call for development and could affect us next weekend.  Keep alert.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015 – Like Gonzalo last year, Danny will be tough to forecast.  Right now, it is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday and build to 100 – 110 mph winds by Saturday.  However, the dry area to the north of us (and which surrounds Anguilla) could weaken the storm as it approaches the islands.  Right now, best guess seems to be weak hurricane passing about 150 mi.to the south of us around Antigua, BUT…the projected track has slowly been moving north.

Anguilla at this point should expect moderately severe weather (subject to change) to start impacting us on Monday thru Tuesday.  We’ll have a clearer picture by this weekend of how severe and when exactly.  Since it appears we will be well within the cone of probability, I expect ferries to stop maybe on Monday and PJIA and AXA airports to perhaps shut down operations late Monday.  AXA Disaster Mgt. will probably activate the EOC this weekend.

Lots of “ifs” at this point – best to check National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ -  for latest forecast intensity/track. Later.