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- - - 2014 Hurricane Season - - -
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- Wind and more wind!!
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 12 May 2015 14:52:35 -0300
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We are experiencing very, very strong winds here in Dominica and our valley! Our bamboo is taking a beating and we have several bamboo on the ground, we have also had a bamboo damage our guttering! I think though we might be luckier than other parts of the island as we are having some very pleasant showers. Dominica especially on the west coast is very dry at the moment and we have had quite a lot of bush fires. The weather is really peculiar we are not complaining as it is very cool the temperature is great.
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- RAIN GLORIOUS RAIN
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 9 May 2015 16:36:03 -0300
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We woke up in the night hearing drumming on the roof!! Could this be the elusive rain!!! Yes, it was and how very welcome it is. We woke up about 3 times in the night hearing the pitter patter on the roof. I actually got up and put my hand out of the window to make sure I was not imagining anything at all, yes, it was rain! Through the day on and off we have had some very heavy showers. The garden is sparkling, the birds are singing, the bamboo is sighing, the breeze is fantastic. We hope other islands are enjoying the same weather too.
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- Blowing a gale
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 12:01:07 -0300
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No rain, just a beautiful blue sky a bit blurred with Sahara dust, however, the wind is really, really gusty so much so I can't paint as the canvas is getting blown away! The wind is roaring around the valley making the noise of a high speed train!! In fact we are surprised that no trees have fallen!! If you look at the overview on the world atlas you will see the extent of the Sahara dust right across the Atlantic. The Caribbean needs rain badly. Here we are on the Nature Island of the Caribbean with 365 rivers and our spring has dried up and our ravine is shrinking; pumping water from our ravine into our water tank once a week now which is very, very unusual! Here in our valley, because we have the Layou river and our ravine, everything is green, our lawn, the trees in fact it is beautiful. If we venture out of the valley down to the west coast there is a stark contrast. Everything looks totally brown as if it has been burned, it feels baking hot and there is a real haze over the ocean because of the Sahara dust. We are so very lucky to have the water supply in the valley and high enough above sea level that we are always cool! I can't imagine what the other islands who do not have so much water are suffering. The month of May is usually dry and at the moment we see no rain on the horizon!! I have added a photo of my friend's spring water outlet which is our new source of drinking water. Pure clean, beautiful, tastes fantastic.
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- Sunday
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sun, 3 May 2015 12:12:47 -0300
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Another gorgeous day in paradise! The sun is shining, we have a fantastic breeze. The garden is looking amazing, the birds singing in our trees. There is bamboo very close to our house and bamboo has it's own tubular symphony like a true orchestra it swishes, creaks, cracks and groans; bamboo is very much a lively part of our everyday. The strange thing is that the Jaco parrots seem to like sitting on these 30 foot bamboo shoots which we have never seen before, so they also join in with the cacophony of sounds. I often sit on the deck and think how extremely lucky it is to live in such a beautiful place, we have no neighbours and live with the sound of nature alone. As I have mentioned recently, there is a need for some rain here soon as April 2015 was an unusually dry month; if May continues in the same fashion there will be a shortage of water, a fact not commonly associated with the Nature Island of Dominica.
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- Sahara Dust
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2015 09:15:27 -0300
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Well we are having a great deal of Sahara dust and have had this for the last week, it looks like there is a haze all over the island but it is especially noticeable over Roseau! Also having a very dry month; if it is dry in May then we will be needing rain badly, our rivers and ravines are getting smaller. I am having to travel to get potable water as our own spring had dried up! In the valley we are having really hot weather in the eighties, but we are lucky enough to have a beautiful breeze. Believe it or believe it not, it is still chilly in the mornings, this morning being no exception.
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- Glorious Weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 25 Apr 2015 08:54:23 -0300
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Today, have awoken to the most glorious cloudless sky. The birds are singing a great chorus with gusto! There is not a breath of wind in the trees and nature is in harmony with itself. We seem to have our Gecko's doing a dance among themselves up the posts of our deck which is quite amusing to watch, I think perhaps it is a weird mating dance, whatever it is they are up to it looks great fun. Maybe summer is on it's way at last. We have had a very dry time since the beginning of March; luckily because we live in the valley we do get what we call valley rain so the garden for us is green and in full colour. Going further down the west coast, the grass is brown and one can see the lack of moisture so everyone is waiting for the rainy season which traditionally starts in June! On a more important note, we are so very sad to hear about the terrible earthquake in Nepal, we send our condolences to all the families who have lost loved ones, their homes..... what a terrible tragedy.
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- Summer Cometh
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2015 10:06:10 -0300
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Hello from Dominica, it has been a while. We have had a very unusual winter in our picturesque valley ! The winter has been much cooler than I can remember. I work and write on our deck and am still wearing shoes on my feet to keep them warm and a track suit in the early mornings and evenings. This is the first morning I am sitting barefoot with a T shirt. Also the weather has definitely affected the mangoes! We always make mango chutney in March and the Julie mangoes are only now coming to ripen and we are nearly in May!! The weather here in the Caribbean always reflects on the weather in Canada and the States and their winter has been very, very cold with a great deal of snow, hence affected us here. The good thing is that this means we should not have any bad hurricanes if any at all because the ocean is still cool and the water has to be of a certain temperature to attract the bad hurricanes. So are we experiencing Global Warming? - not methinks in the Caribbean. I hope everyone has a fantastic weekend.
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- RAIN, RAIN AND MORE RAIN!
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2014 12:23:49 -0400
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Yesterday was the start of very bad heavy showers, a thunderstorm and more bad rain showers throughout the night. We had business meetings to attend in town today Friday and were driving out of our valley when we hit really heavy rainfall and cascading water on the roads! - so decided to turn around when we were in the heights of Warner and saw a complete whiteout with the clouds coming to meet us on the road. We do sometimes get landslides with this volume of rain, so not wanting to tempt providence we came home to be with our dogs! I have got a leek and potatoe soup on the go for lunch with homemade roasted garlic bread! Yum! It is definitely a day for staying home, chilling out and watching movies. As yet, we have not heard any news of any damage anywhere here in Dominica and hope the weather clears by tomorrow!
I am posting two photo's one of my latest painting "Two One Love Turtles with Attitude" and the other one of our new puppy Miss T
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- Dull cold windy weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2014 11:07:08 -0400
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Since Friday early evening it has been very dull, cold, windy and wet ! Yesterday was a day for chilling out at home, catching up with jobs and generally taking it easy! It was also a day for cooking up broth and homemade bread to keep us warm! In the night we had a great deal of wind which brought down 3 of our bamboo making such a loud noise that the dogs were petrified and we let them in for the night for the night! There were a few more crashes and bangs. This morning when we woke up and opened our doors we could hear voices and chopping sounds - lo! and behold a tree had fallen across the road there is just enough room for a mini bus to pass underneath the trunk, but definitely no trucks!! We have heard of other trees that have fallen. There, surprisingly, has not been that much rain but enough to fill the cistern and buckets. So far today we have had a very dull sky and it is still chilly, however it looks like it will improve later, certainly hope so, we want the sunshine please.
Here are photo's of the fallen tree.
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- Sunny weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 09:45:49 -0300
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It's been a lucky time in Dominica over the last few days; even with a TW in the vicinity we have had perfect weather, no heavy rain, the odd shower at night. It's possible the heavens have decided to smile on Dominica this year as we are in the middle of our Creole Festival! The big concerts was over last weekend and the weather stayed dry through a very good temperature. We understand that Barbados and Antigua have had a lot of rainy, squally weather. Everybody seems to be enjoying Creole in the Park this week and it looks like the continuing weather will be fantastic. We have lots of visitors and the whole of Dominica is in a festive mood sporting excellent fashion with the folks festooned in their Creole designs.
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- Good Luck Bermuda
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2014 18:38:15 -0400
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We are thinking of everyone in Bermuda tonight, we wish you good luck and safety. Gonzalo is one huge storm and reminds us so very much of Luis in 1995 (Antigua et. al) and of course a somewhat unwanted sibling to Fabian 2003. Gonzalo visited and played Karate with Antigua & Barbuda but has now picked up her cyclonic force and is on track for Bermuda. We wish your wonderful isle
to be safe. Our prayers are with you all.
Laurie & Lisette |
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- Gonzalo Imitates...?
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2014 03:32:59 +0000 (UTC)
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It appears very much that given the current track and intensity of Hurricane Gonzalo that there's some imitation by this system of T.S./Hurricane Earl in 2010 (History repeats itself...). In fact many of the same areas have been impacted and in similar ways so far. Hopefully no loss of life will occur this time around.
Let's All continue to keep safe this Hurricane season. |
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- Gonzalo etc...not to be underestimated
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 14:56:45 +0000 (UTC)
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So far this morning apart from a few very brief, light, early showers, it has been eerily quiet in my neck of the woods the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica. And for that we are certainly thankful!... Our thoughts and prayers go out to those badly affected by Fay in Bermuda, and Gonzalo in Antigua and Dependencies. So far this year there seems to be a pattern of these storms which appear to be underestimated in strength at first, but are proving to be much more potent than imagined. Ex 91L certainly 'bears watching' etc.
Let's Pray that the Good Lord Jesus will continue to give us the strength and Grace to deal with whatever storms may come. May God Bless us All, and lets all keep safe this Hurricane Season. |
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- Gonzalo
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 11:02:27 -0300
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Dominica has been very lucky with this Tropical Storm, yesterday, there was a lot of rain on and off plus some very heavy crashes of thunder but no lightning. We actually made it to the beach at Mero and I had a very refreshing swim. Our new adopted puppy MissT came with us and she was such a perfect little lady, so much so that she was given her own chair at Romance Cafe. This is the best beach place to eat in our opinion. Frederique the owner and chef is so very welcoming; the food is excellent and the wine too!!
I have been on the telephone with my friends in Antigua and they are having a really, really rough time, it appears that they have been taken by surprise by the ferocity of TS Gonzalo, a gust has been recorded so far at 102 MPH. It will be upgraded to a hurricane soon if not already. We hope everyone stays safe and that damage is kept to a minimum.
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- Gonzalo etc...(answers)
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 07:13:25 +0000 (UTC)
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While the effects or Gonzalo continue to play out themselves in the Leeward islands and in Dominica by bouts of rain and some occasional wind gusts. I thought the following articles would be helpful to Christopher firstly of Grenada and lastly to Sally. I trust that the contents will be helpful... 1)-Re:- Seaweed Caribbean Hit Hard by Sargassum Seaweed InvasionDesmond Brown ST. JOHN'S, Antigua, Feb 29 2012 (IPS) - When scientists speak of the Sargasso Sea, which occupies part of the Atlantic Ocean, there is usually little mention of things drifting out because of the immobile currents.
That is until now. Over the past few weeks, seaweed from the Sargasso Sea has been making its way towards the Caribbean, washing up en masse on beaches as surrounding currents change with weather and temperature patterns. It’s a situation that is posing serious problems for local ecosystems and critical industries such as tourism and fishing. “It’s the first time in history that I or anyone in the fishermen association have seen so much sargassum weed invading our shores,” Gerald Price, communications officer for the Antigua and Barbuda Fishermen Association, told IPS. He said the seaweed was clogging the engines of most of the boats used by the fishermen. While it the cause remains unclear, the Antigua Fisheries Division notes that “strong and unusual currents from recent storms have probably brought the mass of seaweed from the Sargasso Sea to the Caribbean.
“It is anticipated that the masses of seaweeds could increase as more tropical storms are predicted for this hurricane season,” it adds.Changing currents and more powerful storms due to climate change are one possibility. Another is rising ocean temperatures, and the resulting effects on the growth rates of different marine species. Vince Best, an environmental scientist and lecturer at Antigua State College, told IPS, “It is possible that climate change could be indirectly responsible for the proliferation of this particular weed which is currently affecting many global coastlines. “Increased temperatures and the associated effects may be the precursor which is somehow affecting the overall physiology of the various species of this weed causing, maybe, excessive growth; hence the excessive amounts of the weed seen in aquatic environments.” The species being observed is a brown, macro-algae called Sargussum fluitans (sargassum seaweed), a free-floating algae found on the open sea surface and known to occur in this region. It is often found in association with Sargasso weed (Sargassum natans) that is native to the Caribbean. “It’s hard to tell the real reason why the sargassum weed is washing up on shores in the Caribbean without some kind of technical assessment,” Sandra Prescod Dalrymple, environmental resource management specialist with ESP Consultants (Caribbean) Inc. told IPS. “It could be as a result of strong winds that cause strong wave action, winter swells or a combination of things.” Regardless of the cause, she noted that that the effects are both immediate – such as flies and other vermin, putrid scent, and inconvenience for beach users – as well as long term, and that there could be serious health issues if the situation is not dealt with in a timely and effective manner. “The tourism industry will be impacted since tourists usually come to the region primarily for its sea and sand,” Dalrymple said, adding that “other longer term impacts could be seen in beach erosion since seaweed usually protects the beach by absorbing wave energy thereby reducing the impacts of waves on the ocean.” Marine environmentalist Eli Fuller urged governments to quickly develop a comprehensive plan to deal with the problem. “A lot of the Sargasso weed is caught up in the regular currents bringing them back to Antigua, and we have found out that the west coast of Africa has it much worse than we do here in Antigua. “I saw a photograph of Sierra Leone that showed that they have a serious problem with the weed. It’s an event, this is a historical event which is unfolding,” he added. The Antigua and Barbuda government has been urging citizens to be cautious, assuring them in the process that there was no immediate health risk associated with the sargassum weed. “The unusually large mats of algae in bays and on beaches could disrupt recreational, fishing and boating activities, disrupt the movement of marine turtles coming to beaches to lay their eggs, cause fishing gear and vessels to become entangled or obstruct general vessel traffic,” the government said in a statement. “The general public is advised that while this new invasion is a nuisance, it poses no immediate threat to human health but all must exercise due care and caution if working continuously and directly within its environs. The sulphurous odour associated with it is primarily a result of decaying processes once the weed becomes stagnant in an area and is allowed to die.” Price explained that the impact was also severe in the tourism sector after the sargassum weeds washed ashore, creating a “nasty stink” and driving tourists away from the beaches in a country which promotes itself as having 365 beaches – one for each day of the year. The upscale St. James’s Club Resort and Villas located on a 100-acre peninsula on the southeastern coast of Antigua was forced to close its doors for several weeks late in 2011 as management devised ways to cope with the sargassum weed that has overtaken many beaches on the east and southeast coasts. The hotel’s vice president, Alex Debretto, said the resort has employed more than two dozen people to clear the beaches. Apart from Antigua and Barbuda, the seaweed has also affected other Caribbean islands, including Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Bartholomew. Dalrymple warns that while it’s important to remove the seaweed, countries also have to be careful since grazers rely on these plants for food and in turn provide sustenance for other creatures in the food chain. In addition, she said that these plants provide natural habitats for many living organisms and these too would suffer. “One could see a decline in near-shore fisheries but this depends on the extent of the damage and the ability of the seagrass beds to recover after such events,” she said, adding “as such, the implications could differ depending on the coastal characteristics of the particular area and the state of the fisheries and seagrass beds prior to the event.” 2)Re:- sabbath...(We are a Sunday people- The Day of the Lord- see Rev1:10 -the day of the Resurrection, Pentecost and Jesus' Ascension-Glorious Sunday) I n Colossians 2:16-17, the apostle Paul declares, “Therefore do not let anyone judge you by what you eat or drink, or with regard to a religious festival, a New Moon celebration or a Sabbath day. These are a shadow of the things that were to come; the reality, however, is found in Christ.” Similarly,Romans 14:5 states, “One man considers one day more sacred than another; another man considers every day alike. Each one should be fully convinced in his own mind.” These Scriptures make it clear that, for the Christian, Sabbath-keeping is a matter of spiritual freedom, not a command from God. Sabbath-keeping is an issue on which God’s Word instructs us not to judge each other. Sabbath-keeping is a matter about which each Christian needs to be fully convinced in his/her own mind.
God Bless! |
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- Gonzalo's effects...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 06:47:39 +0000 (UTC)
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Greetings to All,
During the course of Sunday into the early afternoon we appeared to get a preview of things to come with Gonzalo... The North-East and parts of the east of the Nature island of our beloved Commonwealth of Dominica- had some thundershowers and thunderstorms throughout the course of the day. Most were moderate to occasionally heavy, however, any strong winds were limited to isolated areas. Thus far a few showers continue to come in the outer bands of the system. Daylight should reveal a bit more about Gonzalo's intentions.
May God Bless us all. |
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- Gonzalo...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 18:21:37 +0000 (UTC)
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T.S. Gonzalo is here...so far no bulletin issued for Dominica, however, I think it may be wise to issue a watch for our island given the proximity of the system -even if Gonzalo is a small storm. Tonight and tomorrow will tell how important that warning would have been... Hopefully we'll be fine with no major impacts.
May God Bless us All! |
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- TD Or Gonzalo...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 03:22:02 +0000 (UTC)
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Hey Folks,
Looks like T.S Gonzalo may be on our 'doorstep' by tomorrow. A bit of an unexpected developing system, however, it was 'forecast' by the models along with additional intensification. We must certainly not become complacent during the Hurricane Season... Only some brief showers so far in Dominica. Tomorrow God willing should be a bit more interesting. Have a Blessed Sunday Mass or Service everyone. May God Bless us All! |
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- Empathizing with TRINIDAD & Tobago etc...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Sat, 4 Oct 2014 23:17:30 +0000 (UTC)
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It has been rather unfortunate to learn of the recent damage and impacts from the latest unnamed system which brought havoc to parts of Trinidad and Tobago and to a much lesser extent Grenada and dependencies etc...The following has been issued from the various Trinidad media houses describing the impacts from the latest Trough/ Tropical wave system & ITCZ:
(Wednesday's Impacts) ODPM noted there have been reports of flooding emerging from the following areas: Penal/Debe, Siparia, Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo, Tunapuna/Piarco, Sangre Grande and Chaguanas.
Partially blown off roofs and fallen trees in Princes Town, Mayaro/Rio Claro, Diego Martin, Port-of-Spain, San Juan/Laventille and in Tobago were also reported- mainly due to Wednesday morning's impacts.
-Below follows another update from Thursday's impacts... A priority report compiled by the corporation’s DMU and submitted around 4 pm yesterday revealed that gusty winds on Thursday morning had affected homes at La Puerta; La Horquette Road; Haig Street, Carenage; Glencoe; Sea View Hill; Pt Cumana; Amowville; Upper Bournes Road; Dibe Road; Petit Valley; Mercer Road, Diego Martin; and Cocorite Terrace. Officials estimated that more than 100 people were affected, while 26 homes lost their roofs, and several others sustained damage from falling trees. At Providence Estate, seven roofs were severely damaged, causing three homes to be deemed uninhabitable. In the Cocorite area, seven roofs were damaged, while at Sea View Hill, Carenage, five homes were affected. Officials of the National Commission for Self Help accompanied corporation officials out on the field yesterday, assessing damage and advising residents of available financial assistance to help them with the rebuilding process. Our thoughts and prayers remains with all those who have been adversely affected. Let's All continue to Pray that the Good Lord Jesus May continue to grant us a quiet balance of the remainder of this Year's Hurricane season- & for the strength & grace to be able to deal with whatever arises -named or unnamed storms...God Bless us All! |
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- Day in Sunday
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 09:23:19 -0300
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Yesterday was a day for staying home and chilling out. It was a really dark day resulting in really heavy showers and lots of thunder and lightning. Our garden was in thick mist.... it was so weird to see the clouds on the lawn blocking out the majestic cliffs. It made us feel like we were part of the sky really surreal. The birds were really hungry and gobbled up everything we gave them.... they took shelter a lot of the day on our deck which was quite amazing to see! The dogs spent most of the day curled up asleep. We had a electricity outage for a couple of hours. There was no real damage as far as we know on the island. Today is very still it is much lighter than yesterday, but it still feels like we could have more weather today.
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- Rainy Weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2014 17:39:19 -0300
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We comotized through a very rainy stormy night. The sun is coming out now and our garden is looking beautiful...it' a zooby time having a great Saturday chilling out. relaxing enjoying the weather! - you get the picture? There is always a constant breeze in our valley.
We have been reading other peoples reports from different islands about Chikungunya. Dominica, like so many islands is experiencing this unwelcome malady. We have all been told that it is because of the mosquito that this very unpleasant illness mutates! Sorry folks we do not buy that totally. As you know Dominica has her own water supply; we have 365 rivers and uncounted underground springs. Tell us something: How does the mosquito which carries Dengue - and which some pundits also proffer carries Chikungunya - pass on the complaint so efficiently? As far as we know there has never been a Dengue fever outbreak like the enormity of Chikungunya in the 2014 Caribbean! Therefore, we are very skeptical that it is mosquito-borne solely!! Why do we think this???? In the valley we have our own from Heaven-caught domestic water supply and nourish our drinking water from an underground spring that sees zero sunlight. We, luckily have not yet contracted Chikungunya (we don't propose too either). We have done some delving into this subject and it seems that other folks with their own non-pipe water supply in our area at least, have not contracted Chikungunya either, therefore, it could be concluded that the virus could be imbibed through the authorities water supply. This makes so much more sense. Those poor mosquitoes would have to be bonking their tiny brains out and then going around biting everyone they can!!  Like many others, we have lived in the Caribbean for over 26 years and the mosquito does not bother us and we have - I think - become immune to them as they to us. Just putting a different slant on this situation as we are so lucky to be totally independent of the pipe-water supply. The Chikungunya has spread so quickly through the Caribbean and now into the US and Canada, it seems totally plausible that being Mossie bitten or drinking untested water could create the demise that many folks find themselves in. Anyone else have any other ideas? |
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- Perfect weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2014 09:19:16 -0300
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We have been having the most fantastic weather. The days have been starting out with beautiful sunshine; the climate in the valley is fantastic as we always seem to have enough breeze to keep the temperature just right. Our garden is truly looking amazing... there is nowhere we would rather be at the moment than on our deck looking at the lawn and the amazing different, flowers, shrubs and fruit trees - especially looking at the avocado trees which are in abundance with pears this year. We hope that we keep being lucky for this hurricane season..., we are well over half way now so let's keep our fingers crossed.
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- Chilling
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 1 Sep 2014 18:09:25 -0300
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The weather is so lovely, it is not too hot, we are having rain and sunshine! It has been a pleasant summer so far and I feel it will be fine for the rest of the season. Remember, it has to be extremely hot and dry to attract the hurricane to our islands. If you look at years gone past this is a fact. Loving it so far! I still have the cupboards ready in the event of a hurricane but hopefully we will eat the provisions through the summer!  Chilling at the moment on the deck looking out on our awesome garden. We are so lucky.
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- A Monster -29th August...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 23:21:41 -0700
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Its 35 Years since that Deadly and devastating day when the Fury of Hurricane
David visited upon the exotic shores of this Isle of Beauty and Isle of
Splendour. Without a doubt countless Dominicans will never forget the horror of
that fateful day.
David -'The Goliath' as it was subsequently dubbed by ingenious Dominicans
remains etched in the memory of most Dominicans- of course by those Old enough
to Remember and recount the ordeal.
This terrible cyclone struck at nearly Category 5 status -& was particularly
felt on the southern half of the island where the ferocious bands of the
eyewall of Hurricane David made Landfall. Indeed, most of the World and
especially the Southern U.S. also Remembered on this exact date (29th Aug)
another fearsome Hurricane by the Name of Katrina (2005).
Hurricane David (1979) -a 'Katrina' in its own right has given successive
generations a healthy fear and Respect for one of Mother Nature's most
formidable forces on the Planet.
May God continue to Bless us All this Hurricane season!
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- Yup...Vigilance!
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 23:06:26 -0700
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Noting the report from Grand Cayman...It appears that the system 99L is
approaching your area in earnest. I hope and pray that no devastation occurs
there during its passage. The system appears to be a bit potent on satellite
representation.
May God continue to Bless us All during the rest of this Storm season as we
near its peak period!
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- Yup...Vigilance!
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 22:43:04 -0700
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Noting the report from Grand Cayman...It appears that the system 99L is
approaching your area in earnest. I hope and pray that no devastation occurs
there during its passage. The system appears to be a bit potent on satellite
representation.
May God continue to Bless us All during the rest of this Storm season as we
near its peak period!
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- Things seem to be Heating Up...Vigilance.
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 22:25:32 -0700
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Greetings to All from the Nature Isle!
It appears that another 'sneaker', Low Pressure
system with a Low Level Centre of Circulation- LLC/LLCC- is Approaching the
Southern Windward islands, in-particular Grenada. Mindful of the Negative
experience that parts of that island sufffered during the wee morning hours of
July 25th, perhaps individuals there should be a bit weary of the incoming
weather system.
Whilst some of these latest tropical spin ups near the ITCZ may not be declared
as having closed surface level circulations -it will make no difference as to
the intensity actually experienced, and potential for devastation that
unexpected heavy and prolonged rains combined with winds gusting to Tropical
storm strength can wreak on unsuspecting poor souls...
May God continue to Bless us All this Storm season!
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- 96L
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 17:31:24 -0300
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Here in Dominica 96L has been a puppy dog, wagging it's tail with splashes of rain heavy at times but sporadic! Some claps of thunder but no lightning that we espied. So very little to report. It has taken one and a half days approximately to pass through the Dominica environs! We've had a lovely lazy day just chilling in the mountains; I did some great cooking and am into a good book. The dogs had a blast as they slept most of the time close to us. It is 4.15 p.m. and the sun has got its hat off. It is going to be a beautiful evening and promises to be a lovely weekend. Seems like the islands above us had most of the weather from 96L or rather no hell!
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- Bad weather could be approaching Thursday/Friday
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 19 Aug 2014 19:01:33 -0300
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Looking at the satellite photo it looks very likely that we could expect some bad weather on Thursday/Friday. Looks like thunderstorms and wet weather this is not named. It has been really hot here over the last two days so we think the bad weather is very possible! We will watch and keep everyone posted.
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- Great Moon
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 11 Aug 2014 09:50:18 -0300
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What a beautiful moon last night - really awesome, it was possible to dance on our lawn - with the odd agouti spectator - as if it were the day time!! Just love the weather we are getting at the moment, plenty of rain, sun and wind, it is fantastic for the garden! Bertha, when she turned up was really a pussycat not bad at all but she kicked up and went to the UK where she huffed, puffed and poured! I feel again that this year we will not get a bad hurricane, the reason being that the ocean is not warm and the weather conditions are cool for this time of year. The Sahara dust is also having a dispersive effect on any storm formation. 94L already looks unsteady as it trundles on it's way. Had a fantastic day yesterday with our friends at Three Rivers, so laid back, the best pizza's ever, great company and good wine. Another week is upon us so to everyone, hope the week brings good things not bad.
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- The morning after...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2014 12:01:19 -0700
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TS Berta not be forgotten too soon in some parts of Dominica –owing to its
prolonged wind/ rain affair...
Select areas are patiently awaiting Re- connection. As Can Be Expected The East
& North East Coast of the island saw more Action from this Storm. We still had
an occasional deluge early this morning & my rain gauge recorded roughly -85mm
from Bertha's passage. Bertha overall proved to be a 'good test system' in
terms of Readiness for the remainder of the season. Let's All keep safe...God
Bless us All!
P.S. Lisette- the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf- is a tale; a Greek fable and
Not from the Bible...Of course in contrast Jesus is the Real good Shepherd!
Thank God!
With God all things are Possible! -
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- Bertha past
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 2 Aug 2014 11:27:36 -0300
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Bertha past us and as far as we can tell there was very little action in this storm. We had quite a lot of rain, some thunder and lightning and very little wind, yet took all the precautions necessary for any event. Our dogs spent a peaceful night indoors and the electricity stayed on all night! Yeah.
Reading other reports on Bertha it seems that she has been fairly gentle with her passing so far.
'
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- Lightening up & Then Some...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 21:09:02 -0700
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I'm back...& thankfully the power has stayed on through all of this tropical
assault. Of course some scattered power outages have been reported in a few
spots. Now we're having the Occasional gusts - with moderate to light rain
showers. It seems like Bertha's centre went up nearly along most our west
coast. At least near enough from the satellite/ radar pics.
These last few years- it seems like there is an 'attraction' for the Female
named storms - once in our vicinity - to be 'magneted' to Dominica.
Hmmm...Perhaps there may be a bit more to it than coincidence.
(Well Dominica is a Charming & irresistible Nature Island, so there's some
pseudo-meteorological logic to it) lol...So far reports do not seem that bad
with many communities still fully connected to the utilities 'system'.
That being said strong wind gusts and bands of moderate to heavy rain are
likely to continue well into the night (perhaps the discontinuation of the
Tropical storm warning was just a little premature). The fact that we are all
grateful that Bertha was not an intensifying Hurricane upon landfall in
Dominica- Goes without saying, because Had environmental conditions been more
favourable- as the GFS etc. had predicted- Bertha could have well been a
Monster Cat 2 or stronger Hurricane on our door steps... Praise God for His
tender mercies! Certainly Day light will tell the full story...
God Bless & a Good night to All!
P.S I hope the VI etc. Are preparing- take no chances...
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- Rain in sheets...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 14:56:33 -0700
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Greetings!
Latest reports from the South of the island indicate that they are awash with
rain...Everyone's roof is being tested by intense Rain in sheets, and
unbelievably hard in force. I think that 'band' is heading my way so I'm about
to 'unplug' since there were reports of thunderstorm activity in the
South...This 'lady Bertha' is quite bullish, to say the least.
God Bless!
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- Just When You thought...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 14:40:25 -0700
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Just When one thought that the prevailing conditions could not get any more
intense -Bertha has one upped us on Dominica's North East coast...Winds and
Rains have since intensified from my last post...Gusts must be over 40knots by
now...Still impressed with the constant power though (I'm definitely not
complaining) many compliments to those deserving, as I said only one flicker
earlier, and so far we are holding good...It will be needed for the night time,
however, time will tell. Thankfully, I have ample hurricane supplies for this
'Lady Bertha'. Latest official word from the capital in the south of the island
indicates that winds are picking up there too -nothing trashy here about
Bertha...a very robust little system indeed. I will check in and see what the
latest official reports from the airport puts top wind gusts at...
God Bless!
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- CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FAST...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 14:19:35 -0700
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Good Afternoon/ evening to All!
Re:Bertha- - Conditions are now deteriorating rapidly on the North East Coast-
stronger gusts have been building from mid morning - some minor to moderate
squalls ocurred earlier...& they were mostly at or near gale force about 26-30
knots -& the ocean has been building steadily since and is now churning wildly
here on the North East coast of the island near Londonderry.
Bertha is looking better on radar-& it will take a while to transition into
surface satellite imagery, which is happening slowly- but unlike some storms
that have impressive satellite imagery and yet no 'bite' - Bertha is Definitely
a storm that's Big on surface action-as evident on radar- She definitely knows
how to 'dance.'
Tropical storm force winds have begun in earnest in my local area from about
3:40pm (Eastern Caribbean local time). Looking at the Martinique radar- it
seems like the North of Martinique is still getting punished currently. Here in
Dominica our Southern area is about to feel the brunt- I hope the reports of
last minute scrambles in the Capital today would have paid off over night And
into tomorrow... No doubt there will always be those who are caught
unprepared...Berta looks like it's intensifying right on the heels and
eventually right over Dominica (It's center according to Radar fixes being in
the Dominica/ Martinique Channel)... It will be a long night- keep us in
Prayer! Latest wind gusts at the nearest airport- Melville Hall outs too winds
at 37 knots...Cudos to our utility crews and to the 'French' guys at SxM
Cyclone who are doing a great job like so many if these wonderful weather
sites/ blogs.
Also, Long may the power live - a Great job by our local power company- Domlec
so far! Sadly Like I said in an earlier post- this storm has already been
deadly- earlier on-from its impacts all the way on the African coast- it does
bear watching for sure...Re: those ahead in its track... Let's All take good
care this season & God Bless!
With God all things are Possible! -
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- A waiting game
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 16:21:28 -0300
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How many times over the years have we sat waiting for a tropucal storm, hurricane bad weather. Here we all are especially our dogs just waiting for Bertha. We are battened down. We hope everyone stays safe.
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- Playing the waiting game!
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 16:16:57 -0300
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How many times over the last 25 years have we played the waiting game in the Caribbean! We are sitting on the deck watching the weather. It has stsrted to rain hard. We hope everyone stays safe.
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- All quiet on the Western front!!!
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 1 Aug 2014 09:06:49 -0300
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We have woken up to a very still day with blue sky peeping out of the clouds, the lull before the storm no doubt!! Hopefully everyone takes heed and battens down taking all the protection necessary for Bertha. No one knows quite where the storm will hit but it looks on track for St. Lucia, Martinque and Dominica and Guadeloupe with others on the perimeter. LIAT have put out an advisory that flights will probably be delayed or cancelled later today on some of the islands. We wish everyone safety in the next 24 hours and advise everyone to take care.
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- As Predicted…Finally T.S.Bertha
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 21:43:07 -0700
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Greetings To All!
While cyclogenesis took quite longer than
originally expected for a varied number of factors...T.S. Bertha has finally
formed, as anticipated, and has been officially classified & named. IMO This
system is Not one to be taken lightly- in one way it has already been a deadly
storm from its impacts on the African continent, which SADLY caused the loss of
life of several persons aboard an airliner which was downed due to bad weather
conditions caused by the then Pre-Bertha version of this same system. To its
credit the storm has been able to fight of -SAL; Dry air and wind shear, and
has consistently been a well-defined low pressure system.
With surface winds long since clocked at around 40 to 45 mph across the
northern and eastern portions of the circulation- the system might actually be
a lot stronger now. Showers and intense thunderstorms have continued to
increase east and north of the center during the past couple of hours. The
western flank of the system also seems to be trying to build up adequate
convection and thunderstorm banding as well in response to DMax etc.
With advisories being initiated -Our usual courtesy thanks are extended to the
Barbados Met Office & Government that normally issues our Storm warnings for
Dominica -with alacrity and keen proficiency. In such ways regional
cooperation, and fraternity most definitely lives.
Let's All be safe this season...God Bless!
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- One to WATCH...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 21:03:54 -0700
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Greetings to All!
Invest93L already looks far more potent than TD2 looked
at this point... At this stage its Quite an amazing system actually despite the
more negative and pessimistic forecasts for its stealth development -this
system has really shown extreme correlation with the all the models that have
called for its robust development. Its rather incredible and an unusual thing
to see the formation of such a healthy tropical system at such a latitude.The
overall structure, convection and spin are already indicative of a
strengthening system very near tropical storm strength at the least if not
already having attained that. By all satellite impressions -Cyclogenesis is
already in full swing. Bertha has definitely opted for an early arrival before
August. Let's All remain Vigilant this season.
God Bless us All!
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- Cloudy, windy, rainy, dull weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2014 10:35:38 -0300
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The weather here in our valley is actually very refreshing although it is dull and cloudy with light showers there is a fantastic breeze so it is very fresh. As Alex has reported it sounds like Grenada was taken surprise by the tropical storm and there has been quite a bit of damage on the Atlantic coast. It certainly is a reminder that we are now well and truly in the hurricane season. It seems in particular each year that in July and the beginning of August storms that form tend to end up coming through Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe. Looking at the satellite image it looks like we are going to be getting more rough weather over the next few days. We have to keep an eye open and make sure our cupboards are stocked up, torches with batteries at the ready not mention oil lamps and keeping the generator working properly!
I am sitting on the deck this morning fascinated watching our baby lizard Reckless (without the w) catching flies. Reckless seriously is very, very tiny but wow, he moves like lightning stalking the flies and then bam! swallowed whole down into his tiny tummy! The fact that the deck is his territory and we have two large dogs we are amazed at his audacity and tenacity. I will try and take a photo so you can see this little fellow!!
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- Unfortunate...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 09:24:53 -0700
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Greetings,
Its really sad to hear of the damage in Grenada and the Grenadines and perhaps
to a lesser extent in Tobago- due to the latest Vigorous tropical wave which
passed through overnight...I hope no one was badly hurt or injured in any of
the islands. It appears that the very system which affected the Grenada area
could have been at a much higher intensity during its passage last night than
was originally thought. In fact it seems that prevailing conditions at the time
indicate convincing evidence in support of a system at minimal Tropical
depression strength. There was definite rotation and curving/ banding
signatures seen late last night on the Meteo France Antilles Radar Loop (FWI
Radar Mosaic) at the time of passage of the most intense convection. Its a
shame that more emphasis was not placed on this potent little system. I suppose
that there would be more reports out of Grenada, but according to news reports
there are some places that are still without
power like the island's windward coast, and other areas should be getting
reconnected like True Blue. (This system seemed awfully like a duplicate of
sorts of TD 2 except at a lower Latitude.)
Its a critical reminder that We cannot afford to get complacent or to let our
guard down at any time- especially during the hurricane season.
Let us all continue to Keep safe.
God Bless!
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- Vigilant...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 20:40:34 -0700
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Greetings and Blessings to All,
Thankfully, all seems to be well in
the aftermath of last night's tropical assault. I think most persons who had
the luxury of time today spent the balance of the day similar to how Lisette
described...From the satellite pics we seem to be in for some more scattered
showers, however, it appears that further south in the island chain- Grenada
and the Grenadines may be in for a 'tropical assault' of their own, thanks to a
persistent and potent looking 'blob' of convection and associated tropical wave
axis. Let's all stay safe this season...
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- As Predicted…
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 10:45:08 -0700
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As Predicted- the ‘Remnants’ of TD 2 -gave us tropical storm like conditions.
For all intents and purposes, to be frank -Ex TD 2 did not loose much- if any
of its original tropical charateristics based on the conditions that were
experienced from last night on island. The real ‘show’ began shortly before
midninght and went on well into the early morning hours.
Meteo France Antilles Radar Loop (FWI Radar Mosaic) clearly showed what
appeared to be the LOW LEVEL Circular Or closed surface circulation at 4:30UTC
or 12:30am 24th July local time this morning passing between Martinique &
Dominica (Sort of like T.S. Emily -in 2011). As a result of its passage we On
the North East coast and environs we experienced frequent thunderstorm activity
accompanied by heavy to moderate showers and gusty winds. The ocean is still
rough at this moment, but things are drying out now a bit... Hopefully there
will be no significant damage from last night’s passage of the ‘storm’ on our
island.
However, ‘Ex TD2 OR Pre-Bertha’ DID GIVE US A VERY SOUND WAKE UP CALL- a
harbinger perhaps for what the rest of the season may hold... May God Bless us
All!
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- Bright Sky
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 14:31:03 -0300
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The rain has gone the skies are brighter. We are all on the deck including Wreckless. We hav all come out to play. I have nothing bad to report her in the valley. We have taken some photo's of Wreckless.
You can see how tiny our baby lizard is against our dog Chester. Too sweet.
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- TD 2
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 08:08:23 -0400
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TD2 is with us and has been for a few hours. The storm is mainly rain thunder and lightning. No real wind. It is very dull. We have no radio so do not know how others in Dominica are doing. We are going to have some coffee. Looking at the satelite image it looks like we will be having a break and more bad weather to come! So a day to stay indoors. We hope everyone sttays safe in Martinque too.
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- Wreckless
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 16:28:38 -0400
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Wreckless now has a safe spot on the deck to chill out on Thursday. He has taken note of the report from Alex! Even though it is a bit technical. Wreckless gave us the thumbs up! No sweat. Batten down. Hot srew and a hot toddy.
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- Classic signs of an Approaching Cyclone...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 10:29:04 -0700
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Greetings everyone, there are All the Classic signs...
The key indicators to date- Nature wise that can be relied on with irrefutable
accuracy -AS OPPOSED TO MERE MODELS- ARE ALL INDICATING here on the island of
Dominica THAT SOMETHING IS 'COMING'. The climatology of these Lesser Antilles
islands with its annual tropical cyclonic activity has given Rise to a certain
array of 'full proof signs' which are spot-on- should one actually be
interested in 'testing' whether a bonafide tropical system was definitely
approaching, But precisely without the help of modern day Forecasting tools
etc.
Namely, these include the winds & sustained directional patterns, cloud spin &
direction/formation, and most crucially the typical prevailing conditions of
the ocean along with certain behaviours of animals, which are a give away clue
as to what to EXPECT. Currently, all indicators are in the affirmative storm
wise- so irrespective of what the NHC says... tonight is likely to be a long
and stormy one- weather wise on the Nature Island Dominica...
Even now looking at the satellite pics it would have made more sense to weaken
the intensity of the depression, RATHER THAN TO DOWNGRADE IT. A VERY POOR CALL
IMHO BY THE POWERS THAT BE...
GOD'S BLESSINGS TO ALL!
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- A Classic Premature Downgrade...?
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 08:12:41 -0700
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The NHC has done it again..a downgrade when in fact.this system (Post TD2) is
almost certain to 'flare-up' later this evening (given (DMax etc.) most likely
while directly upon the islands bringing genuine tropical storm conditions,
which unfortunately may catch many off guard and perhaps put several persons in
harm's way since there are no official watches/ warnings.
Again T.S. Helene's DOWNGRADE IN 2012 was another Classic Case in point. The
sudden classification of T.S. Emily of 2011 also comes to mind. While Visible
satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened overnight -a total
downgrade may have in fact been premature...
While there is a lack of deep convection now- the probability of a closed
surface circulation still exists. Time will tell as the 'remnants' move through
the Lesser Antilles this evening with 'some areas of gusty winds and
showers...'
God Bless!
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- Wreckless
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 10:18:02 -0300
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It is a beautiful windy sunny morning here in the valley; there was a lot of rain in the night so everything is now sparkling, the garden is green and very beautiful. A new friend, a baby lizard - that we have come to name Reckless - has adopted us. This lizard is so tiny and has absolutely no fear! We have two dogs that live on our deck with us Tippy and Chester, both amuse themselves by catching the odd bug or creepy crawly. Reckless however, seems to have passed their inspection and now considers the deck and everything on it his territory at the moment he is sitting on my foot!! I will try to take a photo at some point. We are expecting rainy weather tomorrow from Tropical storm Bertha, I have a feeling that hopefully she will decide to disperse a bit today so we don't get a deluge. We shall wait and see.
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- Further Cyclogenesis Likely...
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 22:35:58 -0700
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Hi everyone,
Right NOW -Given the lack of any recon data & key Ascatt values of TD2 at this
point; going solely on satellite imagery particularly that generated by the
RBTOP color imagery that T.S. Bertha has essentially formed...I do remember in
2004 with Hurricane Ivan that all the large scale global models still kept
calling for Ivan to take a Wnw course which it never did... Instead the system
kept on an almost due west course and made landfall in Southern Grenada, which
the official forecast track NEVER anticipated resulting in almost 40 deaths
there alone.
Once again in this case it MUST BE NOTED THAT -the large scale global models
still cannot resolve/initialize this small system, AS WAS RIGHTLY POINTED OUT
BY STEVE (Wunderground site).
However, the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, which have consistently
initialized at 12Z, -forecasts the storm to continue tracking towards the
CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB by perhaps very early ON Thursday. It may be
a small system but it is cyclonic and of Tropical storm status. T.S. Storm
Warnings should be issued AT THIS POINT..the fact that there are no warnings or
watches issued up to this point could prove very detrimental to the residents
of the affected island especially since this system 'Bertha' appears to be
holding its own. Nature continues to teach us 'lessons' I hope the FORECASTERS
ARE TAKING NOTES...Irrespective however, this System is more than likely to
bring stormy conditions and significant squally conditions which can still be
Very harzadous. Let’s All be Prepared this Season…
Good Night All! & God Bless!
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- T.S. Bertha...?
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- From: Alex Staunton <dtkcomp2002 at yahoo.com>
- Date: Tue, 22 Jul 2014 22:33:57 -0700
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This Depression will likely defy ALL THE NAYSAYERS AND I predict that within
the next few hrs TD2 will be in a little more favorable environment Re: SST and
will have gained Tropical storm designation by then from the NHC.
I DO KNOW THAT There have been WORSE looking Tropical storms than TD2.. CASES
IN POINT INCLUDE:- T.S Bill of 2003 and Jerry of 2001 etc. As was rightly noted
by Steve on Behalf of Dr. Masters- (wunderground.com) -the call on the forecast
intensity for TD 2 might have been a bit too conservative- that’s given the
forecasts of the Specialized Tropical Cyclone Models. I hold that the exclusive
agreement with the large scale models at this stage in the system’s development
is most likely a bit too Premature...
IN FACT, there is a precedent for such systems – even those which have been
open or even weak tropical waves –That have quickly been able to organize east
of the Lesser Antilles islands- resulting in high-end tropical storms right
over the islands. Systems like Cindy-1993, & Debby -1994 easily come to mind, &
of course Chantal of 2013 also.
But ONE OF THE MOST RECENT AND SIGNIFICANT CASES WAS T.S. HELENE OF THE 2012
SEASON WHICH ALTHOUGH IT WAS OFFICIALLY DOWNGRADED DUE TO ‘CONFIRMED’
DEGENERATION BY A HURRICANE HUNTER’S FLIGHT –PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS IN A COUPLE OF THE ISLANDS;Eg. THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA WHERE
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSED NEAREST HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE DAMAGE AT SEVERAL
SPOTS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTUAL TROPICAL
STORM SYSTEM & Not a Truly ‘DOWNGRADED’ SYSTEM. SO AGAIN IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY
APPARENT THAT –‘The large scale global models do not have a handle on this
small system, but the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, initialized at 18Z,
forecast the storm to track towards the CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB late
in the day THU or by early Friday’ –May be more accurate. Quoting Steve:-‘The
statistically based intensity models show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm
by then, though the
more reliable dynamical models are NOT forecasting the system to show
significant intensification…’ The statistically based intensity models may
prove to in fact be RIGHT Despite wind shear and drier air factors.
God Bless us All!
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- Balmy Summer Days
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 09:33:39 -0300
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There has been really lovely weather here in the valley of late. We can feel that it is getting a lot hotter but remain lucky as we are having a lot of wind which keeps the temperature at bay. The water is lovely in the Layou River and it's been great swimming in our usual place again 3 years after the Miracle Lake collapse; tons of sand has been taken down the river leaving the riverbed clear and the pools that were there before have now come back. Yesterday we went to the river and a lot of young people from St. Joseph were there. It was great watching them jumping off the rocks into the deeper pools. There was so much laughter and splashing of water it made me feel euphoric; there is nothing like good company to keep one happy. We still have our cupboards stocked, torches ready and all supplies needed in case of a hurricane, but so far so good and hopefully it will be a really quiet 2014 season.
I am enclosing a photo of our Domnitjen magazine which has my painting of the Jaco parrot on it! Our parrots are so beautiful!
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- Really sad rain, rain, rain
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2014 16:31:22 -0300
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Saturday has turned into a really horrible rainy day! It is so very annoying as the New Zealand cricket team are here playing the first of two 20/20 cricket matches against the West Indies! Everyone, for obvious reasons, in DA has been looking forward to this weekend and sadly it looks like the cricket will probably be interrupted for the duration.
In the same negative thread: I had the day planned to go view some properties. I went to the first piece of land and then the rain decided to deluge, consequently I am now at home purveying a very dark sky! The mist from the mountains is enveloping fast, the dogs are curled up around my feet - I think it's ideal for watching movies and chilling out. What a real shame! Let's hope it brightens up for cricket tomorrow!
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- Rain. ( At last ).
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- From: Jackie Fullbrook <fullbrookt at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 11:09:09 -0300
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A very good morning to one and all, it's been such a long time since I turned in a report. Sorry, but there is only so much one can write about on long hot days. ( notice I never said lazy ) The weather has been
lovely for several months. Then on Friday night last that all changed. Some pretty heavy rain, which is badly needed. Gusty winds. Saturday night we had several downpours along with some thunder and lightening. Have not had a really good light show for sometime now.
Last night and during the early hours of this morning we had a terrific thunder storm. The rain lashed down and the thunder rolled enough to wake me up, which is a minor miracle in it's
self. Not much wakes me once I am asleep. I'm not sure, but I don't think we had any lightening to go with it, not that I noticed anyway. This morning is very grey and wet. The wind is fairly
strong and gusty. We have gone from hot and sticky to cool and comfy. Nice change. This is the time to watch for those rocks, boulders and landslips. So you all go with care. |
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- Tropical wave
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 30 Jun 2014 10:21:38 -0300
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Yesterday was perfect. There was a lot of wind - which we have actually had for the whole week - and we had beautiful sunshine all day. Ideal for a lazy Sunday, chilling out really lovely. Later on going to bed, the heavens opened and it rained on and off all night; the rain at times sounding like we were under a waterfall it was so very heavy. Our two dogs let us know they wanted into the house around 2.0 a.m. just as the thunder and lightning started. The flash & booms were not too bad but our dogs are really scared of this and prefer to be under furniture. Today we have woken up to grey skies and the clouds are in our garden which feels rather odd. It looks like we could have this weather for a while today. It really is the signature first night and day of the hurricane season, the weather fronts are starting!
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- Windy Weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2014 08:30:10 -0300
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The weather here in Dominica has been and is really lovely. We are having high winds and some incredible showers with plenty of sunshine. The temperature is very, very comfortable. The one of our plants in our garden we are feeling very sorry for is the bamboo. Bamboo does not do at all well in the wind. We have a number of bamboo near our house which acts as shade for us and in these gusts it is breaking and falling! Our two dogs get really scared when the bamboo cracks, snaps and falls; their reaction is rather like it would be on fireworks night back on the main land.
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- Balmy weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2014 09:34:45 -0300
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Yesterday was beautiful in fact I think it was the hottest day so far in our valley. I actually had the fan on on the deck which is the first for the year! Today has started out with a very heavy shower of rain which is great as the garden is looking beautiful. We are tending to get rain through the night and sunshine in the day perfect weather. Earlier in the week we had a great deal of Saraha dust but that seems to have passed. All at the moment and long may it last is quiet on the nature island of Dominica.
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- Chilly mornings and Evenings
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Mon, 9 Jun 2014 09:46:10 -0300
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We are enjoying a really quiet weekend here in the valley. It is a Bank Holiday weekend for Pentecost and we also have a Jazz & Creole festival going on. The Jazz festival has been really successful so far and gives everyone a chance to see the different bands at different venues on the island, such as Roseau, Belles and yesterday at the Cabrits, Portsmouth. The weather has really been behaving itself of late. 9th of June already, yet it is still very cool in the mornings and evenings. The ocean also has not really warmed up which in my humble opinion is a good for keeping hurricanes at bay! Today there is a fish festival in the very pretty village of Good Hope so Jaco Ladd and I might go chill out and have some fresh fish. It should be fun.
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- The start of hurricane season - Sunday
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Fri, 30 May 2014 10:00:49 -0300
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We have been having a lot of cloudy weather over the last couple of days and quite a few showers. The forecast for the coming hurricane season seems to be that it - hopefully - will not be very active and I have to agree with this feeling. Currently there are chilly mornings and evenings in our valley and the ocean is a tepid temperature, not too warm; let's be hopeful that the Caribbean does not get any real blows. The thing we remember here in Dominica is that we actually had a pretty wet hurricane season and had a really bad disaster on the road between Ponte Casse and the Emerald pool turning. A underground water system caused a huge split in the road and a jeep traveling in the early hours of the morning fell into the chasm killing the driver and one passenger; the third managed to get out alive and was able to stop anybody else having an accident by bravely being badly injured managed to climb out and wave people down. It just proves that we might not have a hurricane but bad rainy conditions can cause an incredible amount of damage to the infrastructure of the island, bearing this in mind we all have to be alert and careful and make sure that we still have our necessities in our homes for this hurricane season.
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- Sunny weather
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 29 Apr 2014 09:36:39 -0300
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It is nearly May and here we are still having very chilly weather in the mornings and evenings! This is preferable as it makes everything so fresh and accompanied by a heavy dew in the mornings the gardens maintain enough moisture to ensure growth. I think we are better off though than some of the other islands. Friends in Anguilla and Antigua tell us they are are having very dry hot weather and drought conditions. There is one month to go before the hurricane season; some reports point to a quiet one, but predicting is a shaky science! It will soon be time to fill the hurricane coffers and stock up with generator fuel
I am enclosing my latest painting of Bananquits that we have in all the islands; they are plump colourful little birds and I had a lot of fun doing them.
Attachment:
Banana Quits.jpg
Description: JPEG image
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- Stormy night
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- From: Lisette Stevens <jaco.lass at gmail.com>
- Date: Tue, 22 Apr 2014 08:31:48 -0300
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Well, we just wondered what was going on with the weather last night. So surprised and woken up a lot during the night with very, very heavy rain and winds that whistled around the house as if we were enduring a hurricane!! It really was very disturbing and we had to bring the dogs into our home as they were very distressed! This morning has been a very cloudy day so far but absolutely no wind, it is very peculiar. We can hear the river roaring on it's way to the ocean below us!! So far this year it has been different from previous years! - it is chilly in the mornings and in the evenings, this is actually really quite nice but it is interesting to see the change here in the climate. Dominica - so far - is not as warm as usual for this time of year.....but say the garden is looking beautiful, very green and everything is growing really well.
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