Looks like we will have a storm on our doorstep late Tuesday night early Wed morn.....at least it is not
A hurricane.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012
FOR THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IF THIS RECENT
DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE COULD REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM SINCE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
COULD SOON BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THOSE ISLANDS.
2. A WELL-DEFINED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT
380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...
AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
3. SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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