- Updates from the Islands -

- - Puerto Rico - -

- - - 2011 Hurricane Season - - -

- Here Comes da Rain!

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sat, 05 May 2012 18:21:39 -0400

t was a beautiful morning here on the north coast of PR. Looked to be apromising day. But, alas, the storm clouds began to appear and by 5pmthe thunder boomers began to sound and the rain began to fall. One ofthe local weather stations is reporting a mere 75 degrees and anaverage rainfall of close to .75 inches of rain an hour with a total sofar of near 1 inch. My backyard isn't flooded -- yet. Nothing reallygood on the tele and lights are flickering, but haven't lost poweryet.....good time to grab a book, cup of tea and relax.

San Juan Airport (TJSJ) 6pm report was 79 degrees and light rain.Aguadilla Airport (TJBQ) reports partly cloudy and 84 degrees.


Hope all is well with everyone, 'till later on.....


Jack

- Here comes the rain!

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sat, 05 May 2012 18:16:35 -0400

It was a beautiful morning here on the north coast of PR. Looked to bea promising day. But, alas, the storm clouds began to appear and by 5pmthe thunder boomers began to sound and the rain began to fall. One ofthe local weather stations is reporting a mere 75 degrees and anaverage rainfall of close to .75 inches of rain an hour with a total sofar of near 1 inch. My backyard isn't flooded -- yet. Nothing reallygood on the tele and lights are flickering, but haven't lost poweryet.....good time to grab a book, cup of tea and relax.

San Juan Airport (TJSJ) 6pm report was 79 degrees and light rain.Aguadilla Airport (TJBQ) reports partly cloudy and 84 degrees.


Hope all is well with everyone, 'till later on.....


Jack

- A Dark and (not so) Stormy Night

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2012 21:12:39 -0400

It's been a long time since my last post and much has happened.Unfortunately, not enough beer or time to cover everything. But......

Tonight is like yesterday and today. Off and on rain showers, althoughyesterday I did here the rumble of thunder on a few occasions, whichsurprised me as we really haven't had any T-storms this year. The rainis just enough to mess with any outdoor plans. There hasn't been anywind with this latest spat of showers, compared to a week ago, sonothing unusual. The south side of PR really needed it as they were dryas a bone and plagued with brush fires. At least the rain has lessenedthe possibilities of fires in the area.

Currently it's in the mid 70's, calm winds and light showers here justwest of San Juan. San Juan radar shows a line of scattered light tomedium showers diagonally from San Juan in the North to Cabo Rojo in theSW part of PR. Otherwise a quiet night.



Not much on the idiot box tonight so I may call it an early night.

Later ya'll

Jack

- There is Light at the End of the Tunnel

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Wed, 23 Nov 2011 20:19:22 -0400

With just a bit over a week to go in the "official" 2011 hurricaneseason, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Anotherinteresting season is about to end. Now if we can just get more than aday without rain, we'll be all set. With the exception of IRENE, it wasan unremarkable season for most of us.


Good.

I am, however, concerned that the odds that we will get a major storm upthrough the Leewards and on to the USVI/BVI and Puerto Rico are gettinghigher and higher. Last one was Georges in 1998, or 13 years ago. Nextseason will make it 14. Like a 100 year flood, if you haven't had onein over 90 years, your odds of having one in the next 10 years goes updramatically. The unfortunate thing about this is that ffolks in thearea forget what it's like to go through a major storm and,unfortunately, they forget how to prepare for the big ones.

But, for now, it's time to sit down and ponder our strategies on how weare going to attack the shopping malls on Black Friday, survive theendless string of get-togethers and the wonderful weather we here in thebeautiful Caribbean are so fortunate to have.

To all the ffolks on the Caribbean Hurricane Network -- For those whocelebrate Thanksgiving --- Have a wonderful and safe thanksgiving!!



And.......


Let's be safe out there.....


Jack

- Sorta Quiet on the Eastern Front

By Jack Hunter <tartan37_143 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 25 Oct 2011 18:13:22 -0700 (PDT)

Well, it's kinda quiet here on the north side of Puerto Rico. we had a couple of quick showers today (one in the morning, one in the early evening). Neither really amounted to much. Been keeping an eye on RINA and looks like we'll have another CAT 3 for the season. The track seems to want to take it over Cozumel/Cancun area then western tip of Cuba as a trop storm. We'll see. Invest 97 doesn't look like much on water vapor imagine and unless there is some real development, it will be a non-event.

Something I noticed is that cold fronts are already finding their way down into the Carib. Maybe I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that they didn't get down this far until much later in the season. Sort of a signal that the season (Hurricane, that is) was just about over. Time to break out the beach gear and the Don Q.

Anyway, the f'cast for this week is temps in the high 80's to low 90's partly cloudy with chance of isolated to scattered T-storms. (Repeat for next couple of weeks). Don't see anything on the horizon either.

Everyone have a great week!

Jack Hunter
S/v Don Quijote
"Live Slow... Sail Fast"

- HURRICANE RINA! ! !

By Jack Hunter <tartan37_143 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 12:02:47 -0700 (PDT)

Wow! RINA sure developed quickly! Forecast has it heading WNW into N Belize or near Cozumel, Mexico as a CAT 3 hurricane.

On the other end of the Carib, there's Invest 97L. Weather Underground computer model graphic shows the low just north of Trinidad moving more or less westward and eventually turning northwest toward western Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Invest 97L doesn't look too organized, and, like RINA, there's a lot of dry air all around. Still something we should all keep an eye on.

Here on the northern side of Puerto Rico it is sunny, nice tradewind breeze and a few puffy clouds out an about.

Everyone take care, be safe and enjoy the beautiful weather......

Jack

"Live Slow... Sail Fast"

- Fw: Sunny Sunday

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 2 Oct 2011 10:28:18 -0700 (PDT)

----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 2, 2011 8:40 AM
Subject: Sunny Sunday

Good afternoon to all:

It's a beautiful, sunny Sunday afternoon here in eastern P.R., just the perfect day for outdoor activities. It seems that a day hasn't gone by

since May or so when at least one thunderstorm or shower has fallen in my part of the island. It seems I live in some sort of "rain alley"

where all precipitation coming from the south/east/ goes through. It's great for the plants, but really a pain for gardening, car washing, etc.

Hopefully, today will be the day for catching up on those chores. As for the hurricane season, it looks like there won't be any more Atlantic

hurricane's coming our way. However, as they say: "it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." Until that happens, we'll still be following the daily updates.

Have a great day!!

- Here we go again!

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 21 Sep 2011 11:29:09 +0000

Woke up this morning to finally see a little sun here in the hills above Ponce! We've had soooo much rain lately I was begining to wonder if we'd ever see the sun again! Rain guage show 2.67 inches on Monday, and only 0.5 inches yesterday...but I'd better check it, because it sure seemed like more than that yesterday! Maybe I'm just getting sick of it! We have new rivers and guts running at a pretty steady pace across our property, where there weren't any before!

N E WAY! was checking out the NHC site today as a few days ago I noticed a "disturbance" and I've been really busy at work with no time to check the site, and lo and behold, here comes TS Ophelia! The track looks (again) eerily similar to the last two (Irene, Maria) right over the North coast of PR! Wonderful! I haven't even had a chance to move my plants back out from Maria! Maybe I should just leave them there till Christmas! This has been a terrible season for us here in the hills above Ponce this year. I don't expect it will get any better!

Hang in there........

Will keep you posted as Ophelia approaches.

Pam

- INVEST 97 Lurking

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sun, 18 Sep 2011 21:03:18 -0400

Good evening all….

Hope everyone had a great weekend! As we start the new week, there is good news and bad news.

First the good news. It appears that INVEST 99 will either go north of the islands OR die out and pass us all by, as will INVEST 97. Although, ‘tis a bit early to rule out 97. The trouble maker, however, appears to be INVEST 98. Current models have it coming right down the pike towards the leewards and, of course, Puerto Rico. Still a bit early on the track & intensity, but the NHC is giving it a 30% change of being a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. Hopefully, the computer models will get a better handle on the track once it is a storm. The 1800Z (2pm AST) surface chart has INVEST 97 dissipating and INVEST 98 as a Low centered about 12°N 38°W moving almost due west. Certainly something to watch out for.

Locally, quiet night with scattered towering cumulus and T-storms, temps in the high 70’s to low 80’s. Winds are from the SE, 5 to 15 mph. A beautiful tropical night.

Jack

“Live Slow……. Sail Fast”

- Irene Twin?

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2011 14:17:03 +0000

Geese! I thought my last posting would be the last of Maria! WRONG! I just had to post this morning to let you know we are still in the fog here in the hills above Ponce. Way too similar to TS Irene, who passed by us (25 miles away) here in the hills above Ponce, and we didn't get much of anything...then four(!) days of total whiteout! Well, here we are again, with TS Maria having just swiped by PR and heading North into the Atlantic....and this is the second day we have had nothing but fog and rain! The rain guage measured 3.65 inches yesterday (from midnite to midnite) and today (from midnite to now) has measured 1.26 inches!! I checked out the NHC Atlantic Visable Loop this morning and it looks like Maria is moving (however slowly!!!) to the North, but is pulling up some weather over us from the South! Thanks, just what we need ... more rain!! Went for a quick walk down the road last night with the hurricane hunters (my dogs) and couldn't believe the amount of water that is coming down from above us! Its created many new "rivers" and "guts" over our road that were never there before and its flowing pretty steadily....if this keeps up this season we may have to install a few more culverts to direct the water before it destroys the road!!

Hopefully, this rainy, foggy whiteout will pass and we will see some sun.....soon come!!

Stay dry!
Pam

Attachment: 11-09.14TS Maria whiteout1.pdf
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Attachment: 11-09.14TSMariawhiteout2.pdf
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- One Last Note on TS Maria

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2011 23:40:12 +0000

Just had to comment on the heavy rain we had here in the hills above Ponce today. Although it didn't last long, it was hard and steady enough to make a mess of everything. My daughter sent me a video from St. John this morning showing the flash flooding down the lawn, across the driveway, and into the estate road, which is now apparently almost impassable! Checked out the NHC satdllite and noticed the long tail dragging behind Maria. Seems eerily too similar to Irene! Quack! Quack!

Stay dry and safe!

Pam

- TS Maria Aftermath

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2011 22:35:37 +0000

We had another beautiful day here in the hills above Ponce...one short, hard rain that left us (according to the rain guage) 0.13 inches! Maria was very kind to us here in Ponce, Puerto Rico....and she is passing to the North as I write, the 10% disturbance on NHC satelite map is gone and it looks like clear sailing for a bit. Took off the shutters today, will put all the plants back in their spots tomorrow, and will post again when there's something interesting "out there" approaching.

Meanwhile, hope you all are safe and made it through Maria without too much damage!

Stay safe!

Pam

- TS Maria

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 11 Sep 2011 00:21:00 +0000

We had the most georgeous, sunny day here in Ponce. A few gusts of wind, but no rain to speak of. The dark clouds started flowing in around sunset (or moonrise, which ever you prefer!) and a few stronger gusts of wind and spitting rain, but both are gone now. We're still leaving the shutters up, as hot as it is...because you just never know! But looking at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201114_sat.html it sure looks like Maria has gone to the east a bit further and will not be dead on the VI, and defenitely far enough from Ponce so we may not get much...as the brunt of the storm is to the NorthEast (yay!!).

Went for a walk this evening with my hurricane hunters and they don't seem to think there's anything in the air!!

Will keep posting and let you know if we get anything!

Enjoy the moonrise!

Stay safe!
Pam

Attachment: 11-09.10 TS Maria Sunset.pdf
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Attachment: 11-09.10 Blck clds back.pdf
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- Mostly Sunny in Puerto Rico today

By Francisco Echegaray <fechegaray at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2011 17:04:25 -0400

We had a very nice, sunny and warm day here in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Not a hint of bad weather for most of the day.

However at about 4:40 pm we had some surprise rain comming from the north.

They just lasted for about 5 to 10 minutes and was over. The sun is sitll shinning.

A check with the satellite photo shows that these are the first and westernmost bands of

what is left of Maria, which refuses to die. In fact weather report from NHC says

it will continue at about the same intensity for the next 36 hours after which a strengthening is

forcasted... However by that time she will be north of all Caribbean islands, thanks God!

Francisco

- TS Maria

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2011 13:02:10 +0000

It's a beautiful, sunny morning here in the hills above Ponce. A bit of haze overlooking the south shore, but beautiful blue skys above us!! Checking out all the computer models and weather sites this morning and it looks like we may get lucky! The models have changed since last night and have Maria going a hair to the North! But a hair is all we need here in Ponce to avoid the major impact from the storm. The tracks at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201114_model.html show Maria basically following Katia's track up to the North. But as always, we keep the shutters up, and await what will really happen. Better safe than sorry!!

Will keep you all posted as Maria does her thing! Going to walk the dogs and pick a few avocados, just in case!!

Stay safe!

Pam

Attachment: 11-09.10 840AM Maria.pdf
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Attachment: 11-09.10 842AM Maria.pdf
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Attachment: 11-09.10 Avocados.pdf
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- Awaiting the Arrival of TS Maria

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2011 02:16:08 +0000

Well, the shutters are up once again, and all the plants are safely on the porch...and we sit and await the arrival of TS Maria...looking at the Atlantic Visable Loop looks like a fairly large storm...not very organized as yet. Luckily for Puerto Rico, most of the winds are reported to be on the northeast side (away from PR!) and the tracks are showing Maria passing to the east of us here. We'll see. We still are hunkered down, awaiting the wind and rain. Rain we don't need. We've had showers on and off for the past few days and the ground is still wet this evening from the showers of this afternoon. Hopefully my avocados can withstand more wind...they look almost ready! Thinking about my daugher, her dogs, and my house in St. John! They don't need the rain there either!

Will keep you posted as Maria knocks on our door here in the hills above Ponce!

Sleep tight!

Pam

- MARIA Update

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2011 18:38:54 -0400

The 5pm update from Dr. Masters of Wunderground.com and the NHC are in. Dr. Masters believes that MARIA will reorganize and develop into a Cat 1 hurricane by Saturday. In his blog of 9:05PM UTC (5:05PM AST) he states “The latest run of the GFDL model predicts that Maria will be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon when it moves through the Virgin Islands, and a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night when it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands” He continues with his forecast of increasing winds to near hurricane force. He states “I think it more likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the northern Lesser Antilles, 60 - 70 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and a Category 1 hurricane in the Turks and Caicos Islands”. And, as a good forecaster, he covers all the bases with “A lower intensity, as forecast by NHC, is certainly quite possible, as Maria may continue to struggle with the dry air and wind shear besetting it”. Nonetheless, he thinks that the BVI, USVI and Puerto Rico stand a good chance of a direct hit.

On the other hand, the NHC 5pm AST (2100 UTC) discussion of TS MARIA stated “NOAA BUOY 41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO MARIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. They continue with “THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ANY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS”. 72 hours puts MARIA north of Puerto Rico. The forecast for the track seems to be OK and the NHC says “TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST”.

Both Dr. Masters and the NHC seem to be in agreement on the track and speed of MARIA. They do, however, seem to have different points of view as to intensity of MARIA. Although we have come a long way in being able to forecast the track a particular storm will take, its intensity has always been difficult and sometimes impossible to predict. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I just wish it would play out over water rather than PR!

Currently we are experiencing quite a bit of rain & T-storm activity across the island. Here is the 6:11pm radar from Puerto Rico. All the rain to the north missed us, Thank God!

Stay safe…..Stay Dry!

Jack

Toa Alta, PR

- TS MARIA -- Deja Vu all over again

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2011 14:53:59 -0400

TS MARIA has taken an unexpected jog westward and now has Viequez and northeast PR in its sights. The latest track
has it entering the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of Martinique, jogging north to Viequez, NE PR and then out toward
the Bahamas. Almost like TS/Hurricane IRENE, only different. The good news is that MARIA does not seem to be as
organized as was IRENE and the NHC forecasters have MARIA passing through the NE Caribbean as a tropical storm.
Unfortunately, we’ve all seen how that can change.

Presently PR is experiencing a line of Thunderstorms from
San Juan, south to just west of Caguas, then south to Guayama.
This line is moving to the NW. Another line of T-storms
runs from just north of St. Thomas to the s of St Thomas and is
also moving NW. There are numerous other sctrd T-storms over
PR, all due to the passage of a tropical wave. Just what this part
of PR, especially the mountainous areas, needs…. More rain.

Just in case, it’s time to run to the store for bread, milk, toilet paper,
& what not.

Everyone take care and keep an eye to the east.

Jack Hunter

Toa Alta, PR

“Live Slow…… Sail Fast….”

- TD14

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2011 02:01:42 +0000

Well, Irene delayed our trip to our son's wedding in Montana...were suppose to leave Monday, but couldn't leave till Thursday. Thank God we were able to attend the wedding on Friday! Watching the weather whilst we were in Montana, hoping Katia would miss us...as it did...sort of....we got what I think was the outer, outer bands of rain swooping down upon us yesterday, the rain guage reading out at 2.60 inches! Looking at the the Visable Atlantic Loop to see what we were getting I noticed the "disturbance" off the coast of Africa coming in at a 60% chance of formation. Checked out all the weather sites (NHC, wunder, etc.) to see what I could find and felt pretty satisfied that it would probably follow Katia on the northbound route. Tonight, looking at the NHC graphs for what is now TD14 I see it is predicted to come right at and over Puerto Rico...and not only that...it is predicted to be a Hurricane on top of us! Great! Just love Hurricane season. Will keep an eye on the predictions...as it is still early yet, and hopefully it WILL go north...we can do without more rain and wind.

Keep you posted as TD14 progresses!
Stay safe!

Pam

- TD Number 14

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2011 21:24:29 -0400

Almost at the statistical peak of hurricane season and here comes TD 14 (soon to be TS MARIA) rises from the monsoon trough off of Africa and (at the moment) takes dead aim at the Leeward Islands and, of course, Puerto Rico. As if IRENE didn’t cause enough problems on the island. Interesting to note is that the graphical depiction of the track for TD 14 has it becoming a hurricane AFTER it passes Puerto Rico, but in the Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1, the forecaster states “THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS”. Although TD 14 is experiencing some shear and other aspects of “unfavorable” environmental conditions which tend to slow it’s development, I would err on the side of caution and say the TD 14 will be Hurricane MARIA well before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Early to tell, but sure would be nice if TD14/MARIA recurved and wound up being a fish storm. Below is from the University of Wisconsin – CIMSS.

BUT….before we deal with TD14/TS MARIA, it appears as though we will have to deal with a tropical wave tomorrow & Thursday. Looks like our 13 years of luck has run out…..

Jack Hunter

S/v Don Quijote

Puerto Rico

- INVEST 95L

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2011 22:10:35 -0400

Well, just as we get rid of KATIA, INVEST 95L pops up. The NHC gives 95L better than 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression (TD) within the next 48 hours. A good image of 95L was found on the University of Wisconsin CIMISS website. NOAA sat water vapor image loop seems to indicate there is, at least, the start of some rotation and organization.

Good news is that other than the trail of moisture left behind by KATIA, there is a large area of dry air just east of the Lesser Antilles.

Locally, things are quiet now on Puerto Rico. Temps in the lower 80°F range, but with high humidity left over from the line of T-storms over the central mountains & western PR.

Jack

Toa Alta, PR

"Live Slow……Sail Fast”

- Update from Caimito Alto, San Juan, Puerto Rico

By Joan Santos <joansantos1755 at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2011 16:19:32 -0400

We're very glad to have dodged the Hurricane Katia bullet. We had a beautiful day here in Caimito with lots of sun. In the last hour, the clouds have moved in. A severe thunder/lightening storm now appears to be imminent. Hope everyone had a nice holiday weekend!

Take care.

Joan

- Hurricane KATIA

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2011 23:12:53 -0400

The bad news is…..At 1100 AST the NHC has upgraded Tropical Storm KATIA to a minimal hurricane (Cat 1). The good news is that the current models have KATIA moving WNW and missing the Caribbean completely. Hopefully KATIA will recurve out to sea and miss everyone but the fishies….

Jack

“Live Slow….. Sail Fast”

- All Quiet, except for the Coquis!

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2011 19:36:38 -0400

From here in Toa Alta, things are quiet, except for the Coquis! They are living it up tonight!

We had a short rain shower this afternoon, all part of living in the tropics. NWS f’cast is for isolated showers again tonight. Not surprised. Water vapor images from NOAA show high water vapor over most of PR and west with decidedly drier air to the east towards the BVI and lesser Antilles. Dry air looks like it is fighting a losing battle. The track on TS KATIA takes it to the NE of most Caribbean Islands, but when has the NWS been 100% right? Time to regroup and reload just in case they’re wrong.

Currently in my neighborhood it’s 82°F and winds are light and variable. San Juan Airport reports 82°F and winds from the N at 7 kts. Radar shows only isolated showers, mainly in the western & central Mountains.

Jack

Toa Alta, PR

Live Slow…. Sail Fast….

- #$%$! ! Here we go (again)

By "J. Hunter" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 2011 00:01:50 -0400

Just as we here in PR were getting back to the “normal” state of confusion I see we now have INVEST 92L off the coast of Africa strolling westward at 10 mph or so. NHC gives it a 10% chance of developing within the next 48 hrs, but it is a long way from the Caribbean and so has plenty of time, warm ocean water, and relatively low shear. It’s also starting off at about 12 degrees North. Models have it heading due west for about the next couple of days and then the models have it going every which way. Don’t know what to make of that. Does it (hopefully) mean 92L is going to go away, or does it mean that the models just don’t have enough information to work with and, like humans, they’re just guessing. Regardless, it will be interesting during the coming week.

Stay dry….. Stay Safe….

Jack.

"There are 10 types of people, those that understand binary, and those that don't."

- Update from Caimito Alto, San Juan, Puerto Rico

By Joan Santos <joansantos1755 at gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 2011 12:21:27 -0400

We finally had power restored last night at about 5:00. As of this morning the rain has finally stopped and it was sunny. We went out to fill the generator on Tuesday and noticed that one of the outdoor cats had gnawed through the rope on the mechanism we use to start the machine. Perhaps he was trying to tell us he was still hungry!

We are still without water and cable/phone/internet. I am working at a local Starbucks. We lost a few trees and the local roads have eroded a bit, but we made it through safely. My thoughts go out to the woman who lost her life in San Juan and her family.

I hope that others along Irene's path heed the warnings to be prepared. It definitely made a difference for us.

Continue to stay safe.

Joan

- We have sun!

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2011 17:05:11 +0000

Finally, this morning around 10:30AM we got sun!

!! I spent 2 and a half hours doing driveway maintenance and it only rained once for a short burst, but the sun was shining whilst it was raining! LOVE IT! Although, there is just about enough time to prepare for the next lashing from the next one that has shown up on NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml) (Jose?)....wonderful! Can't wait! Not sure if there is enough time to dry out from the Irene aftermath to allow this next one to soak in!

Anyway, I am out to take advantage of the sun....while it lasts!

Hope all our neighbors in the track of Hurrican Irene are prepared and....

Stay safe!

Post again when the next storm gets near!

Pam

- Irene Remenants

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2011 11:37:59 +0000

Well, there was no sunset last night, and no real sunrise this morning. Up here in the hills over Ponce it is still thundering and occasional rain and still very bleak looking out over the south shore. Tried to get out yesterday to do the road maintenance, but didn't get far before it started pouring again. The dogs were very disappointed, as they are REALLY bored, as are we. Lots of leaves off the trees, lost about all the Jamaican sugar apples and parts of the branches, lots of branches and one larger size tree down in the road. Lots of heavy rain on and off yesterday and still having wind. I think we've had enough. Checked the local dopplar radar this morning and it looks like there is still some lingering thunder storms being pulled up from the south. Checked the visable Atlantic Loop and it shows (besides a perfect eye on H Irene!!) some "vapor" still hanging over Puerto Rico. Hoping to see the sun today. We'll see.

Tired of the rain and wind.
Stay safe!
Pam

- update

By ljean0238 at aim.com
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2011 21:50:32 -0400 (EDT)

Spent day and now eve in Old San Juan.The rain just won't give up. Sadly because of so much rain most of the shops closed up early to attempt to get home safe. Was told at dinner tonight the main expressway coming into the area was flooding bad. This was just what I was told. Back at home, (Carolina area) no power.

Mood in town is upbeat. People happy the storm did no major damage. Trying to get back into routine. As for us we get an unplaned mini vacation in Old San Juan. Loving it too.

Stay dry. If not have in the rain.

- More bad weather

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2011 13:42:24 -0700 (PDT)

A dreary day. Still raining with thunder & lightning in the east interior and it looks like it's going to continue into tonight. This morning had a very heavy thunderstorm with strong wind gusts pass by my house around the time the NWS in SJ issued a tornado warning for my town.

- Irene

By Eric Oliver <ericdoliver at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2011 16:23:14 -0400

Well, here we are on Tuesday, thinking Irene is gone, but the bands of rain 
following her are leaving more rainfall than she actually dropped here.
No flooding to report in Levittown, but we know it's really, really wet here. 
And yet, MORE rain is coming as I write this. 
I checked the radar and I see a huge white tail from Irene covering most of 
Puerto Rico.  That's a lot of rain!  
Services are almost back to normal in most cities and pueblos here.  
We have all utilities on, here in this part (Levittown) of Toa Baja, with 
intermittent power outages.

Eric in PR

- Still raining in West PR

By "CC RinconSportsMassage.com | 413Geek.com Rescue Rincon Animals" <rinconsportsmassage at gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2011 13:38:12 -0400

Not too much wind in our area of Rincon, but lots of clouds and consistent light rain. Miserable!

- update

By ljean0238 at aim.com
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2011 12:28:20 -0400 (EDT)

The worst is over. Good bye Irene. We live outside of San Juan in Carolina. Power went out at 1:30 am Monday morning. Not much damage in the area. Just things blown around. It did rain all day yesterday and we are still having rain today. As we left the house this morning the water in road was up to our knees from rain last night. The talk in neighborhood is saying won't have power for a few more days. Happy Old San Juan has power. We found somewhere to stay until we get power back. Stay dry, be happy it could have been so much worse.

- Bidding Hurrican Irene Good Riddance!

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2011 12:28:53 +0000

Strong gusty winds howling through the night and woke up to see we are still in somewhat of a whiteout here in the hills of Ponce. Once during the night the wind was howling around the backside of the house so bad I got up to see what was happening....the strangest thing when I looked out the window on the front side everything was still and calm, while the wind was whipping and howling around the back side still (our casita isn't that big!). Not sure what that was all about. Wind has died down a little this morning. Accumulated rain yesterday to midnite was 2.80 inches according to the rain gague, and from midnite to this morning a scant 0.34. Avacados are still hanging in there, not many on the ground. That's a good thing. Going to venture out this morning (as the dogs are staring at me and following me around!) and see what damage to trees etc in our driveway out to the main road. Another road maintenance trip!

Attaching a nice picture from NOAA this morning. The cloud coverage from Irene is so massive you can't even see Puerto Rico. Guess that's a good sign we won't see much sun today either. Forward movement at 12MPH, and PR being 110 miles from east to west, it will be just over 9 hours before the west coast sees the end, assuming more clouds don't attach to the east end! Maybe, here in Ponce, we will see a sunset tonight!

Irene has been upgraded by NHC to a Cat 2 with sustained winds at 100MPH as it passes by our neighbors in Hispanola and heads on up to Florida, increasing in intensity. God bless them all in the track of the storm. Don't let your guard down, and

Keep Safe.

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.23 H Irene NOAApdf.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- Good Bye IRENE

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 18:58:32 -0400

Wow.... What a storm!  And we're still getting rained on!  Posted last
night at about 10 pm just before the power left us.  Jut got it back a
few minutes ago.  Some areas are still out and have been w/o power for
the past 24 hours.  What in the world would AEE (Power Authority) do if
a Cat 2 or higher hit?  Looking at the radar shows rain... over most of
PR. Moderate at times.  Now it's time to get back to "normal".  
Where's my Medalla?


-- 
S/v Don Quijote
._/)...SIRLIPSO...Starboard is Right-Left is Port--Sail
On  ..._/)..._/)...

- Awaiting Departure

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 20:19:09 +0000

Well, the wind gusts are still here and light rain off and on, but appears (again) that Hurricane Irene is trying to clear her last wind whipping tails out of PR. (See pics of the changes in the weather between 1:30PM and 4 PM attached) At the speed of 12 MPH I think it will take the rest of our daylight hours here to do so. So....hopefully tomorrow morning we can take off the shutters, put things back in their place, and get the dogs out for a (much needed!!) walk and getting things back to normal!

We shall see.
Stay safe!

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.22 H Irene 120PM.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: 11-08.22 H Irene 405PM.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- Arecibo-Hatillo Area

By Celso Hernandez <celsoth at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 17:17:25 +0000

Arecibo-Hatillo, After Irene

August 22, 1300 Local Time

As night fell Sunday, we started to get some winds and scattered rainfall. No one in my neighborhood seemed aroused enough to put up the usual storm shutters, even though the storm winds approached 70mph as it hit the eastern shores of the Island. The reports on local TV were of more sustained velocities of 40-45mph. My area lost electric power at about 4AM this morning but it was restored by 10:40AM. The water supply was also shut off for several hours.

The worse winds arrived after midnight and I speculate speeds of 40mph or better. They were not consistent. The rainfall has been almost continuous but there seems to be little or no flooding. Some sectors in Sabana Hoyos and Route 123 may have seen some mild flooding according to the Director del Centro de Emergencias, Mr. David Maldonado, whom I reached on the phone at 12:20PM today. He reports a few felled trees and a fallen branch right in the town square in Arecibo. Any debris on the local roads has been cleared up or is in the process of being removed and passage restored. No flooding is reported in the city. Today’s scheduled garbage pick up has been delayed.

Government agencies, except emergency and essential units have been given the day off. Banks are closed. It is expected all of these will be back providing services to the public tomorrow. I understand the airports are operating at normal or near normal. My brother-in-law is arriving this evening from Newark, NJ at 6PM, San Juan time and he says there are no changes with his ticketing.

I had no trouble finding a cafeteria open for breakfast this morning, although the nearby McDonald’s was closed. So, it seems once again Puerto Rico has been spared a severe blow in its first encounter with a Caribbean storm this season.

Celso Hernandez

Arecibo, Puerto Rico

- After the storm

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 09:44:59 -0700 (PDT)

Greetings from eastern Puerto Rico. The sun is out and the Internet is back, but no electricity yet (like 900,000 other homes). Except for a few downed trees in my backyard and neighborhood, Irene caused little damage in my area in spite of the nasty winds and torrential rains early this morning. Now its back to normal and hoping the hurricane season ends quickly without any more systems coming our way.

- West PR & Irene

By "CC RinconSportsMassage.com | 413Geek.com Rescue Rincon Animals" <rinconsportsmassage at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 12:13:11 -0400

We haven't seen much in the Puntas neighborhood of Rincon Puerto Rico. We are awaiting the tail end so keeping shutters up and animals close!

- Reminants

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 16:11:18 +0000

Well, I must have been dreaming..thinking that the whiteout's disappearance this morning would bring the sun! The whiteout came back about three hours ago and the wind has been steady gusts and pounding rain since! Got not a breath of wind when the eye was passing 25 miles away, and now that Hurricane Irene has left Puerto Rico and is advancing across the passage I am getting lashed with wind and rain?????

Strangest storm I've ever experienced!!!

Will keep you updated as Irene speals off her last tails!!

Stay safe!
Pam

- From the Finca - Jayuya PR

By Suzanne Perta <fincadelseto at gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 09:27:56 -0400

Although the numbers were showing that Irene was right on top of my finca, we only had occasional gusty winds and about 4 inches of rain so far. I made a call yesterday afternoon on Finca Weather Central that Irene would go north and I'm feeling somewhat vindicated now (!). Here's the river down below the farm this morning - up, but nothing radical. No power since 4ish yesterday afternoon. Calm with only light rain at present.

Suzanne

fincadelseto at gmail.com
www.fincadelseto.com

- Irene

By Eric D Oliver <ericdoliver at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 08:34:22 -0400

As Irene pummeled Metro San Juan from about 10pm until daybreak, she grew from 
tropical storm status to a Cat One Hurricane with 75mph winds and lots of rain. 
We have some vegetation on the ground and no electrical service since about 
midnight but all in all we faired well with Irene's gracious visit and turn our 
eyes northward to our neighbors who are still preparing for Irene's arrival.  

Eric in PR

Sent from my iPhone 4

- Did I Miss Something?

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 12:12:16 +0000

I am still wondering if I missed something? We had a beautiful sunset last night (see the pic!); this morning at 3AM I posted as I was still waiting for TS Irene to arrive; at 5AM we began getting some light rain, and it was a whiteout here in the hills (see pic); rain has stopped and within a half hour the whiteout is quickly retreating (see pics). We got absolutely no wind to speak of, and rain gauge says 0.56 inches since midnite! I do believe the center of the storm passed about 25 miles from us, so your guess is as good as mine as to why we got none of the winds (which projected out 118 miles from the center) and none of the beating rain. We understand from the news that the San Juan area took quite a beating! We are feeling quite blessed this morning. Thank you!

We are hoping to see the sun later this morning and get the dogs out for a walk.

Stay safe!
Hope you all are well!

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.21 Sunset TS Irene.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: 11-08.22 500AM TS Irene.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: 11-08.22 725AM TS Irene.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: 11-08.22 745AM TS Irene.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: 11-08.22 750AM TS Irene.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- Irene over us!

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 03:52:44 -0400

Good Morning,

Are de 3:41am… In Caguas, we get a gusty winds, no rain… In the last hours like 11:40 shutoff the electricity. But now I am in Battery for my laptop. Very, very Gusty Winds, like 40 to 60mph. The thing is very hard. Don’t stop , is continuity. My avocado tree loose his fruit. All of my neighborhood are sleeping. I am looking outside, nothing to see, only the wind. All is dark.

Well, I go back soon to tell you, more about our situation in this morning.

Héctor

- TS Irene

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 07:31:59 +0000

Good (very early!!) Morning! Had a beautiful sunset last night and uneventful night. Just starting to pick up some light rain, no wind. Looking at the tropical floater (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html) and it looks like the bulk of the storm is north of Ponce and an eye opening on the north shore of PR.....probably wishful thinking....will keep you updated.

Stay safe!
Pam

- Irebe

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 19:21:28 -0400

Hello,

In Caguas, now we get medium rain with some gusting wind like 20 mph. The governor said that is serious situation and the stores will go to close as soon as possible . the bad weather go to be at 9:00 pm, when go inside to the east coast as Yabucoa or Humacao. The Irene winds are in 50 mph steady said the Hurricane Hunter in the recent trip. The major winds are in the Northeast of the storm. We go to fell the winds in all Puerto Rico. Irene will cross the Island of east to west, according to The National Hurricane Center.

Well, now…We only have to do is wait for Irene run out quickly.

Be safe…and Happy

Héctor

- IRENE comes a callin...

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 22:14:49 -0400

IRENE is at our front door and it's getting interesting here on the
North Coast.  We've experienced gusty winds of 20+ kts and medium to
heavy rain.  SO FAR, no T-Storms, although I did see what appeared as
lightning off to the NE.  Lost power for a few minutes, just as my
favorite TV show was starting (2200 Local time).  Radar shows that the
main part of IRENE is just off PR 'tween St. Croix and PR.  Track still
has it coming ashore just S of Humacao.  

More later tonight.

Stay Safe !  
-- 
S/v Don Quijote
..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

- Irene Come to Puerto Rico

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 18:43:37 -0400

Hello,

Well, now…We only have to do is wait for Irene run out quickly.

Be safe…and Happy

Héctor

- rain hs has started in Rio Grande

By Ray in El Yunque <weather at puertoricodaytrips.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 18:51:55 -0400

It seems like we're seeing the first effects of IRENE. Stay safe.

www.PuertoRicoDayTrips.com - Your source for things to do in Puerto Rico
www.CoquisHideaway.com - Stay with us in the rain forest

- TS Irene Update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 22:37:41 +0000

We have just begun to get some rain. It looks pretty bleak out over the southern shore from up here in the hills above Ponce. See the attached photo. No wind yet. Word from St. John (Bordeaux Mt.) trees down, power out, and hard rain and howling winds. Guess it will be here in PR later tonite....will keep you posted till I fall asleep from boredom!!

Stay safe!
Pam

Attachment: 11-08.21 TS Irene 635PM.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- Update from Caimito Alto, San Juan, Puerto Rico

By Joan Santos <joansantos1755 at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 18:13:08 -0400

The winds are howling and the pouring rain is here. I've also heard some distant thunder. The storm center is approximately 117 miles east, moving west at 17 MPH. We just lost power!

Take care all and be safe.

Joan

- Here we go.....

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 18:03:29 -0400

Well,  she is about to smack us a good one.  The eye of IRENE should
come ashore just S of Humacao, PR, right through the central mountains
and off-island 'tween Aricibo and Aguadilla in the west.   Even though
the NWS has her as a TS, I still think she has time to make it to Cat 1.
Just hope I'm wrong!  Attached is the 1731L (2131Z) PR Radar.  An
impressive TS.  


-- 
S/v Don Quijote
..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

Attachment: Radar 2011-08-21.xcf
Description: image/xcf

- Tropical Storm Irene

By Eric D Oliver <ericdoliver at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 15:10:57 -0400

The rain has arrived in Metro San Juan and it's not playing around, it's 
serious.  Easy to see there will be major street flooding in a short time.  
Government workers have been told they will be off tomorrow, I noticed lines at 
6am at the gas station and I'm sure many businesses will be closed. 

Hopefully, I will go home this evening and give you more on local conditions.  

Eric in PR
Sent from my iPhone 4

- update from Caimito Alto, San Juan, Puerto Rico

By Joan Santos <joansantos1755 at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 15:07:23 -0400

Good afternoon all,

I think we've seen our last glimpses of the sun for a while. Earlier today, the Natioal Hurricane Center upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Warning. The eye of the storm is approximately 210 miles from San Juan, travelling west at 20 MPH. It's time to batten down the hatches.

Currently, it is starting to rain somewhat steadily. The wind is picking up making it chilly here. As I am originally form Boston, Massachusetts, I never would have believed I would feel cold in Puerto Rico!

I will try to send another update as the storm intensifies.

I hope that you all stay safe as TS Irene passes.

Joan

- Waitin' for Irene....

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 15:00:02 -0400

So far no rain here on the north side of PR.  Winds are light out of the
n to ne.  I expect IRENE to be a strong TS or possibly a cat 1 by the
time it hits PR.  I'm guessing that she will come ashore S of Humacao,
or a bit further N than what the models show.  Thats OK 'cause the
further north she goes, the less of an impact on the island.  Besides,
according to those who live in Ponce (on the south shores of PR)  Ponce
is Ponce.....everything else is just parking!     Stay dry and most of
all stay safe....
-- 
S/v Don Quijote

..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

- TS? Irene

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 18:32:20 +0000

The sky is still blue, and tiny puffs of wind arriving now, but it is hot! The calm before the storm? Just checking in with NHC for the 2PM report. TS(?) Irene has a very well defined eye (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg), pressure has dropped to 999 MB and looks like has jaunted a bit more north. The bulk of the storm looks like its on the north side which may be good for us, since it looks like she will basically cross us here in Puerto Rico. I see the local PR radar (http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes) shows a band coming toward the eastern shores of PR as I write. So I expect the weather will be deterriorating shortly here in Ponce.

Will keep you updated as Irene approaches us here in Ponce.

Stay safe, stay dry!

Pam

- TS Irene update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 16:35:40 +0000

Just got back from a supply run to Walmart! The 20 items or less line was about a mile long! Sun is still shining here, sky is still blue, and no wind or rain...although now it appears that the NHC is using Ponce as an "enter here" sign for TS Irene! I also have a home in St. John USVI and my daughter is in St. John and she says just a little wind and rain every now and then in Cruz Bay. The stores around her in Mongoose Jct. are begining to close down and people are leaving. Hopefully she will close too and get home safely!

Will keep you updated as TS Irene approaches Ponce!!

Stay safe and dry!

Pam

- Hurricane Watch

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 12:06:21 +0000

Looking a little more closely at the NHC site...notice the pink (hurricane watch) around the blue (tropical storm warning)! I just noticed the Hurricane Watch as I was reading the local weather for PR at http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PRZ006&warncounty=PRC149&firewxzone=PRZ006&local_place1=2+Miles+NE+Villalba+PR&product1=Hurricane+Watch and went back to look at NHC 5 AM update and blew it up to see the Hurricane Watch....!!!! :( The gusts from this morning (must have been the first band going across) have disappeared and things are still calm here. No rain as yet...and still some blue sky out over the southern shore.(See attached picture!) Looks like the center is at 15.5, which is a little northerly shift. All my shutters are up (its hot in here!!) and the plants are in "safe" spots. So, we'll get a few movies and download some reading on the Kindle before the internet goes down and we'll be all set!

Will keep you updated as long as the internet (and the solar power) is up and running.

Tuck in!
Keep safe!

Attachment: 11-08.21 8AM TS Irene.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- TS Irene... Coming...

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 07:45:35 -0400

Hello Everyone,

Now in my area(Caguas), have light rain (.125”), temp. in 81°F (27.22°C), Not wind, overcast. Wait for the rain come from north.And ready for Irene.

Well, be safe… don’t be a Hero.

Hector

- Update from Caimito Alto, San Juan, Puerto Rico

By Joan Santos <joansantos1755 at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 06:58:15 -0400

Good morning all,

We are now under a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch. Let's pray that the latter is just a precaution! Currently, the eye of the storm is about 341 miles away from the San Juan area and is moving toward the west at about 21 MPH. According to the National Huricane Center, the storm will continue to move west or west-northwest and motion is expected to slow. It looks as though it will intensify as it passes Puerto Rico and heads toward Hispanola.

About an hour ago, it was eerily quiet - the calm before the storm. As Irene approaches, it has become windy and very rainy with thunder in the distance. Visibility is way down as well.

The most recent rains have left many of the local roads with huge potholes while some have been partially washed away. We're hoping for the best here. In the meantime, we are prepared. We've moved our plants and patio furniture indoors and have cards and dominoes to entertain us should the cable go out.

Stay safe!

Joan

- TS Irene

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Aug 2011 09:41:07 +0000

Well, good morning Irene! My alarm clock this am was a nice, big, strong, gust of wind! After three days of blazing sun, with only an occasional passing tropical downpour, and plenty of solar power, here comes the train! I thought this portion of Puerto Rico wasn't getting hit till tonight! That prompted me to go look at NHC tracks (which now have some TS force winds covering the southwest portion of PR!) and the NOAA floater (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html) which shows a nice big band coming across us with the bulk of the storm looking like its headed full force right at us here in PR! Things have changed a bit since I went to bed last night, looking at NHC and wunderweather sites which appeared that the "disturbance" was going somewhat south. I can hear the faint sound of the freight train in the distance so I best get out the door and put all the plants in their "safe" places before TS Irene wrecks havoc with them!

Will keep you updated as TS Irene passes by.
Keep dry and safe!

Pam

- Update from Caimito Alto, San Juan, Puerto Rico

By Joan Santos <joansantos1755 at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2011 15:43:45 -0400

Good afternoon all,

I'm writing to you from Caimito Alto, an urbanization located in the hills of San Juan. My husband and I are keeping a close watch on invest 97L, currently located about 689 miles ESE of San Juan. At 2:00 PM this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center indicated that this large tropical wave has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. While hot and sunny at the moment, we are preparing for heavy rains over the next 1-2 days. With any tropical wave, we leave nothing to chance. Our generator is ready to go with an extra supply of gas and we have plenty of water, canned goods and a can opener, just in case.

Also, this afternoon, the Executive Director for AEMEAD, the Puerto Rico organization that handles emergencies and disasters, is urging citizens to be prepared. The Executive Director, quoting the National Service of Meteorology, said, "The first light bands of rain will begin to affect us early Sunday morning with heavier bands of rain between Sunday night until Monday. This tropical wave has a trajectory similar to that of Tropical Storm Emily."

According to the National Hurricane Center, an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is en route to investigate this system. They should have an update around 5:00 PM today.

Stay safe!

- News from PR

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 20 Aug 2011 11:51:24 -0700 (PDT)

Looks like officials here are not taking 97L too seriously. As of this afternoon, there have been no official statements as to what to expect from the disturbance/strong wave. I'll just keep reading the news from the correspondents who seem to be more informed about the situation. I hope the whatever results from 97L doesn't catch anyone off guard. As for me, I'll continue preparations (securing loose items from my yard, checking up on supplies, etc.). Call me cautious, but better safe than sorry.

- Future TD9

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 19 Aug 2011 04:27:48 -0700 (PDT)

Morning everyone. It appears we will be having squally weather late this weekend in Puerto Rico. The NWS in San Juan asks everyone in PR and the Virgin Islands to monitor this disturbance closely since on Sunday we will be getting bad weather. Sometimes we tend to disconnect from the news on weekends, so just keep abreast of what's happening to our east. Most models are still clustered around the same area (North/northeastern Caribbean) so this system may not go to the north of us as so many do. You may access the following free site for tracking models for more information: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/models/ .

Have a wonderful day.

- Area of concern?

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2011 04:45:48 -0700 (PDT)

It's a lovely morning here in southeastern Puerto Rico.After reading several tropical weather discussions, looks like 93L is getting its act together. Let's hope and pray our neighbors along the system's path in Central America stay safe. As to the outlook for our area, both the GFS ensemble and European model ensemble are consistent in their forecast of a disturbance passing across the northeastern Caribbean islands this weekend and then Puerto Rico on Monday. Granted things can and do change rather quickly with these forecasts, we need to follow this system very closely and keep informed with the official news releases and forecasts.

Have a good day!

- What is this?

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2011 18:47:28 +0000

Whoa! Was a pretty nice morning, sun, blue sky....it just clouded up about an hour ago..started raining and the wind is howling up the valley...has knocked over some of my large plant pots with its gusts!! Checked out the satelites and radar....."tropical wave" passing south of us and brushing along the southern coast headed toward the DR and Haiti!....Looked at the satelite this morning and didn't see much...but the wind sure is howling up the valley as we speak! Hopefully this will pass without too much damage but there seems to be a trailer with a few biggies behind it...NHC hasn't given them a % yet but they look promising for some weather!!

Will keep you updated.

Pam

- 93L and beyond

By Esther Aleman <ea.espinosa2 at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2011 10:24:34 -0700 (PDT)

Looks like we won't have the rainy day announced yesterday due to the passage of 93L. Except for a nice breeze and some scattered showers, 93L's visit to our vicinity will not leave too much rain (unless it starts pouring this afternoon). We're still looking at the big wave that left Africa yesterday and now more forecasters (professional and otherwise) are saying that this is the first one that really has possibilities of becoming a major disturbance close to our area. Let's hope that it turns out to be another false alarm. Since there is so much uncertainty with systems that far away, just make sure that your hurricane preparations are all set.

- Here we go again......

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2011 20:51:35 -0400

Other than the absolutely horrid traffic in and around San Juan, today
was a wonderful day here on the Island of Enchantment.

But.......Just like on again - off again Emily.... INVEST 93 looks like
it's on again.  AND, like pre-Emily, PR stands to get pelted with more
rain (like we really needed more!) and maybe some gusty winds.  INVEST
93 models show the "blob" moving into the Carib and heading towards
Central America.  I would not be at all surprised ifn it makes HURRICANE
(HARVEY) status 'fore it hits any substantial land.  What is interesting
is there is quite a big distance from where NWS has 93's center and
where the heaviest rains currently are.  Here in PR we should start
seeing effects of 93 tonight (Monday) and all the way through Tuesday.  

LOCAL RADAR shows a line of T-storms 'tween St. Thomas and Culebra from
N of PR to well S of St. Croix moving west.  

LONG RANGE RADAR shows more (light) rain SE of St Croix.

Temps across the island are in the mid 80's with light winds generally
out of the east.


-- 
S/v Don Quijote
..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

- News from Puerto Rico

By esther aleman <aleman.esther at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Aug 2011 11:05:00 -0400

Hi Friends:

This is my first post as I only recently joined the group of correspondents on Storm Carib. I'm really happy to be part of this excellent site and hope that any information I offer will be useful to others on P.R. and throughout the Caribbean. Today, is a beautiful day on the eastern interior part of the island where I live and it seems it will stay this way for the next three days or so. However, we're just beginning the peak of the hurricane season, so all eyes will need to be fixed on those tropical waves leaving Africa every three days or so. A couple of models are predicting formation of a tropical cyclone from a wave that will exit Africa tomorrow, but that is still a week away from the islands. In the meantime, let's just keep an eye on ex-93L which is still hanging around the Atlantic.

--
Esther Alemán Espinosa
Catedrática (ret.)
UPRH

- Another Beautiful Day on the Island of Enchantment

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2011 22:10:10 -0400

It was a truly beautiful day here on the north site of Puerto Rico,
despite the scattered T-storms.  The good news is that Franklin appears
to be a fish storm, as does Invest 92.  Invest 94 may get named as early
as tomorrow (Sunday) and the ffolks in Bermuda should pay attention.
Invest 93 appears to be falling apart, but me thinks it is too early to
ignore 93.  Computer models (and we all know they're 100% accurate!)
have 93 or what's left of it passing over the leewards, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico.  next couple of days should be interesting.  

As of 9pm (0100Z) -- PR radar shows Scatterd showers off the east coast
from about Fajardo north, moving west.  Otherwise rather quiet on the
island.  

San Juan Airport  77F Wind from ENE  at  12KT and light rain sctrd clouds
Ponce Airport     79F Wind calm w/sctrd clouds
Aguadilla Airport 81F Wind from E  at  5KT w/sctrd clouds

Here at the house, 81F Wind light & variable w/sctrd clouds

Tomorrow's forecast from the NWS is partly cloudy with isolated showers
in the morning...then variably cloudy with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 90 lower elevations
ranging to 77 higher elevations. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of
rain 30 percent. 


-- 
S/v Don Quijote
Fajardo, PR
..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

- 'Tis the Season!

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2011 16:26:36 +0000

Hi All
Things have been pretty quiet and very, very dry and hot here in the hills of Ponce since TS Emily's brush by us. We've had some beautiful sunsets (photos attached) and an incredible lightening storm the night before last. I have a video of the lightening storm and am trying to get a "snapshot" of the lightening. If so, I will post.

NHC satelites look like we've got about 4 storms out there in the Atlantic...one coming from the North(??),one that looks like its headed North and will (hopefully!!) miss us, the other looks like its on its way to us...we've got a few days anyway, so get prepared again?

Off to get some stuff done before something else arrives!

Will keep you updated....till then.

Stay Safe!
Pam

Attachment: sunset1.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

Attachment: sunset2.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- Wait for the Next....Tropical Wave

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2011 19:34:28 -0400

Hi,

Here WOW!!!, Very, very, very Hot!... Nothing rain in my area. The sun burning everyone, that go out. The Atlantic, so quiet. But the weather go on for next week. Waiting to see.

Hector

- Off again..... On again rain

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sun, 07 Aug 2011 19:09:50 -0400

Well it's bee another typical summer day here on the north side of PR
with off and on showers.  We were fortunate to only be brushed by EMILY
(on the wrong side I might add) and since her passing we've had mainly
off and on showers.  Now we have INVEST 92L off the coast of Africa,
however all the computers have it as being a fish storm!  

(1830Local/2230Z) Current long range radar (LRR) out of PR shows
moderate to heavy rain ESE of St. Croix and light rain over NE Dominican
Republic.  Elsewhere in PR there are scattered to isolated rain showers
moving westward from Fajardo across El Junque and the north coast.
Locally skies are overcast with:

Toa Alta/Bayamon  winds N at 5mph (4.3kts).     Temp 84.5F (29C).
San Juan Airport  winds N at 14mph (12kts).     Temp 82.0F (27.8C).
Aguadilla Airport Winds N at 13mph (11.3kts).   Temp 81.0F (27.2C).
Mayaguez          Winds N at 04mph (03.5kts).   Temp 82.9F (28.3C).

Water Vapor imaging for the North Atlantic/Caribbean shows plenty of
moisture over PR and the Leewards along with a "blob" centered at about
12N 50W moving west.  I'm not surprised as we are in August, when
traditionally (and statistically) we should begin to see more activity
in the Atlantic.  What I am surprised about is the lack of any real
activity in June and July in the Gulf of Mexico for 2010 and 2011.  As
most of those who read these blogs, for 2010, the GOM and Caribbean were
frightenly quiet through August, then all heck broke loose.  The rest of
the season was as scheduled.  So far, this year seems to be going the
same way.  Could we be in for another 2010 like year?  Only time will
tell.  

Later....


Jack
S/v Don Quijote
..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

- Morning Update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2011 12:42:06 +0000

Good Morning!
We have light this morning, but no sun yet. Reminants of TS Emily still hanging around as she sits on the coast of DR and Haiti. NHC says she's suppose to move on today (hopefully this morning!) ever so slowly and head across the SW region of Haita and up to Cuba, dropping an estimated 10-20 inches!! Just what Haiti doesn't need. Guess there will be another disaster there.

SJU Radar looks like we have some showers coming along shortly...am getting ready to take my dogs for their long awaited daily walk down the farm road. Will be carrying the rakes and shovels today to remove the multitude of mangoes, sticks, branches, and rocks...road maintenance walk..how invigorating!!

Anyway, we're hoping that TS Emily will move to the west and leave us with some of that wonderful tropical sunshine....until the next wave from our friend, Africa!

Good luck to the DR, Haitians, Cubans, and our US targets for which TS Emily heads!

Stay safe!
Pam

- Evening Weather Update TS Emily

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2011 23:39:09 +0000

Good Evening All
I do believe we are getting more rain, thunder, and lightening today than we got during the passing of TS Emily! No pictures today as they are not worth taking...all is gray, black, bleak, and ugly! It has been raining all day...although the rain guage says we only have 1.21 inches so far....everything is wet! We ventured out later this afternoon for some supplies and had to pick up several trees and large branches from the driveway on the way out and the driveway is totally blanketed with mangoes so I know the wind was strong last night. Thank god the rain has been lighter than expected and not much flooding on the farm. The wind has died to almost none so was able to put the plants that I brought inside back outside, although they didn't get any sun so are looking a little peaked...maybe tomorrow???

Feeling about as grey as the sky and hoping for a ray of sun in the morning! Still checking the floater and now the local radar and it looks like a clearing in sight...but the radar isn't always as accurate...as the rain forms as it passes over the ridge here.

Will keep you updated, as usual, on the passing of TS Emily....and still giving thanks that she wasn't as horrid as expected!

Stay dry and safe!
Pam

- Emily

By Eric Oliver <ericdoliver at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2011 17:19:52 -0400

Rain…Rain…Rain… as the sewers overflow on the streets and the toilets slow down 
we are reminded that heavy rains have their effect on local systems. Otherwise, 
life here in the North Shore is normal with light traffic.  The rain and dark 
clouds all day, remind me of rain in Central Pennsylvania, dark, cloudy and 
raining for days at a time.  I remember never seeing much sunshine for weeks at 
a time in the winter months. Fortunately, we will see the sun again, very soon. 
Temperatures here, stay in the high 70s and low 80s. Not the case in the 
Southern US.  My heart goes out to them enduring 100 plus degrees, day after 
day.  And it's not just the Southern States. Life in Puerto Rico is normal, 
with people proclaiming over the drama of the storm and the memories it stirs 
from storms in past years with it's drama.  Something that keeps our people 
passionate about EVERYTHING. That's Puerto Rico :)
Bendigate
Eric in the tropics

- TS Emily Morning Update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2011 14:08:32 +0000

Good Morning!
Not at all what we suspected, but that's a good thing. One big gust of wind woke me up this morning around 2AM, then around 5AM the gusty wind and light rain started. It is still raining, but not hard and the wind must not have been too bad as the magoes and little avocados are still hanging on the branches and all the plant pots are still upright! Rain guage says we've accumulated 0.77 inches of rain since midnight...so it's a much less rainy storm than expected....so far. Still dark grey, as you can see in the attached photo taken about 5 minutes ago, out over the southern shore of Ponce. Hoping to take off the shutters today and let in some fresh air.

Looking at the floater again this morning and looks like Emily has spewed off some of her upper activity up over the eastern side of Puerto Rico, but has pulled alot of her intensity south of Ponce (yeay!!). Expect the spew to head west and hit us in a bit this moring...then hopefully some sun???

Will keep posting throughout the day to keep everyone updated on the weather here!

Stay safe!

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.03 TS Emily1.JPG
Description: JPEG image

- past 24 hours

By Ray in El Yunque <weather at puertoricodaytrips.com>
Date: Wed, 3 Aug 2011 08:12:20 -0400

We only had 2 squalls yesterday, they amounted to about 0.6" of rain.
We got a bunch of rain over night, about 3".
No real wind overnight.
Around 7am today we had pouring rain, wind, and lots of thunder/lightning.
That seems to have passed, and now just grey.

// Ray

---
Sent from Rio Grande, PR at the edge of El Yunque National Forest
http://www.PuertoRicoDayTrips.com - Your source for things to do in Puerto Rico
http://www.CoquisHideaway.com - Stay with us in the rain forest

- Puerto Rico dodges one.

By Jack Hunter <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Tue, 02 Aug 2011 23:31:35 -0400

After looking at the 2300 AST computer models,radar, etc, it is easy to
say that Puerto Rico has dodged another one (knock on wood).  The
question is.... just how long can our luck hold out.  Last one to really
do us in was Georges (before I moved here) in the mid '90s.  We were
sideswiped in 2005 and that's been it.  Here on the north side of PR
we've just had the "usual" tropical wave weather of isolated T-storms
and a few incidents of rather gusty wind.   Enough to cause many to rush
to the stores for bread, milk, and toilet paper.  Supermarket owners
were happy!

Unfortunately, the models show the DR and Haiti catching the full force
of the storm.  Although, according to the NHC, the terrain of Hispanola
will have serious effect on Emily, drop much more rain than they care
for, Emily will still be able to re-intensify.  Also, the Bahamas have
no high mountains (they don't even have high hills) to disrupt the
storm.  They too will catch the full force of Emily.  After the Bahamas,
is anyone's guess as Emily has been like all tropical storms...
unpredictable.


..._/)..._/)..._/)...Sail Fast... Live Slow......_/)..._/)..._/)...

- Evening Update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 23:18:25 +0000

Good Evening All
Wind's picking up here now and the sky has gotten darker (not night dark...Emily dark!). Here are the last pics for this evening....a nice northern pink in the sky and dark, dark over Caja Muerte!!

Will take pics through the night and post in the morning with a report of the passing of TS Emily....

Hankering in now.....nite!

Stay safe!

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily north sun.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emilly settling in.JPG
Description: JPEG image

- TS Emily's Rainbows

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 22:39:22 +0000

Good Evening All:

This is so awesome I just had to post/share the pictures we just took! First one rainbow, bright and shiney, then amazingly a double rainbow. The second one is off in the background so not sure if you can see it very well...but at any rate...it was most beautiful and most awesome!!

If you all remember, a rainbow is a promise!! I wonder what TS Emily is promising????

Enjoy!!
Pam

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily's Rainbow.JPG
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 11-08.02 Emily's Rainbows.JPG
Description: JPEG image

- Late Afternoon Update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 21:22:46 +0000

Hi All:

Well, we're still sitting here waiting for TS Emily to do her stuff...not sure yet if this was just a practice run for hurricane prep or if she just hasn't arrived here yet??? just looked at the floater again...she's not quite under us as yet...and although weather seemed to be deterriorating for my last report....it actually cleared up and the sun has been shining! No wind, not enough rain to write home about (rain guage total for the day so far is 0.23 inches!!) Just took the attached picture....some black clouds creaping around but not doing much here. The little LLBean gadget says the humidity is 49% and temperatur at 91.2 F and shows a cloud with rain???

Will keep you posted.
Stay safe!

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily8.JPG
Description: JPEG image

- Ponce PR weather update

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 18:21:38 +0000

Good Afternoon All!

Well, we've had sun for most of the day...but over the past few hours the weather has begun to deterriorate...we've lost sight of Caja Muerte...I am attaching a sequence of photos of the weather over the past couple of hours....but it has changed even since the last picture (of the sun and blue sky to the west) just about 5 minutes ago! We are picking up rain and some wind gusts...not much rain though...spotty...the rain guage says 0.17 inches so far today! But the rain sounds like it has just picked up again!

Keeping an eye on the tropical floater at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html looks like Emily has lost her big eye and formed a smaller one to the north edge of the storm that disappeared also.....? hmmm...Emily just can't seem to keep it together (that's a good thing!)....but at least it seems like she's moving..however slowly...as we sit here waiting and waiting......

Will keep you posted as things progress.

Keep safe!
Pam

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily2.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily3.jpg
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Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily4.jpg
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Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily5.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily6.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily7.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- TS Emily

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 13:57:13 +0000

Morning! We actually had sun this morning here in the hills above Ponce!! Finishing up the storm prep this morning, moving the plants to a protected area and putting up some shutters on the windows to keep the rain out, and securing the rain guage. I am attaching a picture from about 20 minutes ago. Still not too bad. Caja Muerte still visable, no wind, tiny bit of showers for about two minutes...that's it. Looks like its running a bit more south than previously expected...but we will wait and see. Sitting tight.

Was checking out TS Emily at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html this morning also. Looks to me like its getting a pretty well defined eye and is spewing the south east blob off to the side or sucking it in...one or the other. Earlier it appeared to have two "eyes"...but now it definately looks like one.

Will keep you updated as TS Emily progresses.

Keep safe!

Pam

Attachment: 11-08.02 TS Emily.pdf
Description: Adobe PDF document

- TS Emily

By Ray in El Yunque <weather at puertoricodaytrips.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 07:34:27 -0400

We had rain off and on throughout the night, with an accumulation of about 0.8".

Right now, it's grey, cloudy, and breezy ... about 77°F ... actually
kind of pleasant.

I can hear it raining pretty good up the mountain behind our house (to
the south in El Yunque), along with some thunder from up there. We
have a pretty good amount water coursing down the mountain and through
our yard, ankle deep in areas.

From the forecasts, I'd guess we'll only be dealing with rain here today.

If I'm not mistaken, I think the sun is trying to break through as I type ...

// Ray

---
Sent from Rio Grande, PR at the edge of El Yunque National Forest
http://www.PuertoRicoDayTrips.com - Your source for things to do in Puerto Rico
http://www.CoquisHideaway.com - Stay with us in the rain forest

- Emily

By Eric D Oliver <ericdoliver at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 07:17:05 -0400

Levittown is dark and quiet with a few locally heavy showers this morning. NWS 
indicates that Emily is just southeast of us and has not changed much in 
strength or speed. However, that can change as the sun rises and increases the 
tropical heat. We will continue to stay vigilant. 

Bendigate
Eric in PR

Sent from my iPhone 4

- Is't Born Emily

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 20:12:23 -0400

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011

730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS

ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA

ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE

ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND

ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICA

* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE

* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA

* HAITI

* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36

HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES

...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST

OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE

UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND

APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110

KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE

WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S.

VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY

WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD

ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN

PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET

ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR

THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS

WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

FORECASTER BRENNAN

- Emily?

By Eric Oliver <ericdoliver at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 16:20:06 -0400

It's on everyone's minds and lips: "The Storm."  The North Shore of Puerto Rico 
has been been hot and wet, this past month with near daily thundershowers and 
occasional flooding in some areas.  The heat continues to bake the island as we 
look to the skies and realize there is "something" developing in the Atlantic 
and moving in our direction this week.  Four named storms have already 
developed and moved on to our north this season, leaving us hot and fairly dry. 
 Neighbors are preparing and stores are trying to keep up with the demands of 
panic shopping for food, gasoline and water.  The lines at gas stations started 
this weekend.   People's driving habits are worse than ever as they are 
pre-occupied with storm preparation.

Here in Levittown, the skies are and eerie quiet with lots of heat from Mr 
Sunshine.  The Easterly breezes are all but gone, adding to the local heat.  
I'm sure there will be more to report tomorrow as the St Croix Hurricane 
Hunters begin to report conditions of Invest 91-L and whether it is gaining 
energy to become the first tropical system for the Caribbean Islands in 2011. 
We have had a nice 7 year respite from Mother Nature. We all need to hope and 
pray that this system doesn't pick up the needed energy in these warm waters to 
gain strength to become a categorized storm.

Eric in Levittown, PR

- We have to Wait !

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2011 10:19:10 -0400

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE

GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW

IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT

15 TO 20 MPH.

- We go to have a Emily soon!

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Sat, 30 Jul 2011 05:22:57 -0400

Well!

I am looking the 91L, and her trajectory like the models say is shortly to Puerto Rico. In same like my friend Isabel Cerni, we have to watch this tropical wave. Now in this morning the national Hurricane Center give 70 %. From yesterday the models trace his road close to the Leeward Islands . The temperature sea at 91L is about 80-83 Fahrenheit, more run the west it’s find more high temperature, and it’s increase her power. Now everyone have to be looking this system, to be ready for any event in our vicinity.

Hector

- Ponce PR Weather

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2011 19:50:00 +0000

Hello from the hills above Ponce! Yesterday was horrific up here on the ridge! It just poured and thundered and lightening all day and nite...rain guage says 4.30 inches for yesterday. Lots of branches, leaves, and rocks in the road, and the little guts here are running steady with water still today. Very strange weather pattern today...sun then black, thunder and quick, heavy rain. Rain guage is only showing .16 inch for today...we are on the cusp of the storm today. Am attaching some pictures ... some yesterday, some today. You can see the change in the view and the change in the sky and clouds. It's pretty dramatic when you have the black cloud edge above you and the sun is shining out on the south shore of Ponce and on Caja Muerte. Eerie light changes...interesting.

Will keep you posted as the Hurricane season progresses!
Hang tight!

Pam

Attachment: 11-07.27.jpg
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Attachment: 11-07.27.3.jpg
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Attachment: 11.07.27.4.jpg
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Attachment: 11-07.28.2.jpg
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- VERY RAIN INSIDE!

By "Hector L. Matos" <matrix at coqui.net>
Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2011 18:30:23 -0400

Hello!!!!

Now we have a lot of rain here! In my place Caguas. I have 1 inch in 1 hour, the thunders is talking about the sky working. This afternoon is fresh, good to rest. Now it’s beginning the night , all is in calm, waiting to see the stars, if the wave let us see the sky.

Have a nice night everyone !

Matrix

- Another Wonderful Day in Paradise

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sun, 3 Jul 2011 16:16:06 +0000

After a surprisingly unexpected sunny afternoon yesterday, I was startled awake this morning at around 5:45 by a loud flash and BOOM! A bolt of lightening hit somewhere close enough so it lit up the whole bedroom and shook the house hard enough to set off the (ADT) alarm! Great!!! Looking out over Caja de Muertos (Photo Attached) (I think I got it wrong before by calling it Isla Muerte) it doesn't look real promising again today....the radar was out for a while this moring but is back now and seems theres "something" stuck in the Mona Passage....a look at the wind pattern on the Central Atlantic loop shows a mish-mash of winds blowing in all directions...causing some halting of the flow of the nasty weather away from us!! Its a little brighter this morning...but had to run the generator all day yesteday to pump the batteries on the solar system back up....since we are "off the grid"...so watching the wattage usage again today...hopefully this will pass so we can bbq tomorrow?

Happy Fourth of July!

Pam

Attachment: 11-07.03 Caja de Muertos.jpg
Description: JPEG image

- Welcome Back to Hurricane Season!

By Pam Taylor <ptponcepr at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 2 Jul 2011 12:20:28 +0000

It's been a long, wet summer here in the hills above Ponce. I sure hope the most recent weather isn't a pre-cursor to what's to come this season. Strong winds the past couple of days...sent my umbrella (including a pretty heavy picnic table) flying across the tile and upside down against the grill and some of my plants (including the pots!) over the edge of the slab! Very windy and rainy all day yesterday and most of last night into this morning. Can't tell the amount of rain as the rain gauge was blown over too! The rain has dwindled down to a constant drizzle and the wind has calmed. I can see out to Isla Muerte this morning but it isn't pretty....very, very grey. Looked at the radar this morning and the Central Atlantic visable loop....not a pretty picture. Guess we're in for more of the same for another day or so.

Quack, quack!!

Pam

- messy weather today

By Ray in El Yunque <weather at puertoricodaytrips.com>
Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2011 15:03:42 -0400

Lots of quick-passing storms on the north side of El Yunque today,
bringing strong winds and heavy downpours ...

// Ray

---
Sent from Rio Grande, PR at the edge of El Yunque National Forest
http://www.PuertoRicoDayTrips.com - Your source for things to do in Puerto Rico
http://www.CoquisHideaway.com - Stay with us in the rain forest

- Rain, Rain, Go Away!

By "S/v Don Quijote" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sat, 4 Jun 2011 08:52:41 -0400

It’s still raining here on the north shore of Puerto Rico! Enough already!

Currently here in Toa Alta it’s 76°F, mostly cloudy/overcast with a light drizzle. Winds are light to calm. F’cast is for MOTS (more of the same) until Tuesday or until Invest 94 (94L) decides to move so keep the umbrellas and rain slickers handy!

Models show “Invest 94” moving to the NE ‘tween Cuba & Haiti while the NWS marine charts show slight movement to the NW.

I see 2 Tropical Waves on the 0600Z NWS Caribbean & SW Atlantic charts. NWS indicates that the wave along 44°W is not very active and should not have much of an impact on us here in the Carib. The 2^nd wave is along 58°W and could bring showers to the Windward Islands (if it hasn’t already).

Jack Hunter

S/v Don Quijote

Tartan 37 #143

......_/)..... Sail Fast....._/)..... Live Slow.....

- Let the Festivities Begin!

By "S/v Don Quijote" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2011 19:59:43 -0400

Well…. It looks like the 2011 storm season has started with a bang. Invest 93L, that started out in the Atlantic, crossed over Florida, and now is in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). HOWEVER, doesn’t look like it will amount to much.

Invest 94L, which was predicted by some models, sits to the south of Jamaica and some models suggest it does a Lenny, that is tracks SW to NE vs SE to NW. Not moving very fast. If in fact it continues it’s slow movement to the NE, Haiti, the DR, and parts of Puerto Rico could be in for some (more than we need) rain. If, as one models suggests, it moves W and into the GOM, then there could be the possibility of a tropical storm.

Been rainin here on the north side of PR all day. Feels like an autumn day in the DC/Maryland area more than here in the tropics. A day where you’d like to curl up with a good book and a cup of tea.

Temps in the low 80s all day and in the mid 70s at night. “Official” rainfall at the airport is 1.5 inches over the last 2 days, but other areas have seen more. Winds have been light and variable.

Until tomorrow….. be happy….. stay dry…

Jack Hunter

Toa Alta, PR

"There are 10 types of people, those that understand binary, and those that don't."

- Hurricane Season Just Around the Corner...

By "S/v Don Quijote" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Fri, 27 May 2011 15:52:45 -0400

Hi All,

Well, it’s just about that time of the year. Just finished reading Drs Klotzback & Gray’s 2011 Atlantic Hurricane forecast and wow, what a bummer. Looks like a busy season. Even though there has been an “invest 92L” already this year, I think it was the forecasters erring on the safe side. I do believe that those of us on the eastern side of the Caribbean (PR and eastward) should see little activity until about mid August. West of PR, however I do believe that the SW Caribbean and the GOM will be active. Drs. Klotzback & Gray indicate a moderation of the La Niña/El Niño, thus moderation of hurricane activity. Still high, but moderating some. Their forecast for the 2010 wasn’t too far off, so it will be interesting to see how their “tweeks” of the forecasting models do for the 2011 season. The plan on an update on 1 June, “Official” start of the 2011 season.

Been kinda rainy the last couple of days and the lightning and thunder has scared the u-know-what out of my dogs. Keeping them calm has been a chore. Keeping dry has also been a chore!

Current conditions show thundershowers to the SE and E of me and mostly cloudy to the N & W. Temp 87° with 71% rel humidity. Winds light out of the N to NE. Barometer is 1014 mb. Forecast is for MOTS….. (more of the same) with sct to isolated T-storms. Guess it’s time to buy more dog treats.

Hope all have a great weekend and those who celebrate Memorial Day… Have a great 3-day weekend.

Jack Hunter

Tartan 37 #143

......_/)..... Sail Fast....._/)..... Live Slow.....

- Here Comes da Rain.....

By "S/v Don Quijote" <wb7adc at onelinkpr.net>
Date: Sat, 14 May 2011 14:31:56 -0400

It is mid afternoon and it has done nothing but rain since about noon. I don’t have a rain gauge, but a local (just up the street) with an online weather station shows we’ve had over 3 inches of rain today. I guess they can rest the plans for water rationing for a while!

Local radar shows moderate to heavy rain & thunderstorms from about Dorado east to the Luquillo area, moving to the northeast. There is more rain showers on radar from Cabo Rojo in the SW that are moving NE toward the centre of the island. May extend to the San Juan metro area by later this afternoon. Just a good day to stay indoors. Now if the big Low north of Bermuda will only move a little, we can get some decent beach weather…..

More later,

Jack

- From the Finca - Jayuya PR

By Suzanne Perta <fincadelseto at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 11 May 2011 06:35:14 -0400

Rainy days & Mondays...3 inches on the farm yesterday afternoon. Dry right now, but very overcast & humid.

Suzanne

fincadelseto at gmail.com
www.fincadelseto.com

- Update

By "vernonlliberty" <vernon at libertypr.net>
Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2011 10:40:17 -0400

Sorry for the title of the photos.... pasted to wrong titled folder. Merry Christmas anyway.

- Update

By "vernonlliberty" <vernon at libertypr.net>
Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2011 10:35:24 -0400

Finally the brown might go away. Although the lights went out I didn't care. A lovely rain. V

Attachment: Fajardo Christmas 2009 005.jpg
Description: JPEG image

Attachment: Fajardo Christmas 2009 010.jpg
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