- Updates from the Islands -

- - Jamaica - -

For the most recent reports from Jamaica see this page.

- - - 2007 Hurricane Season - - -

- 99L makes a comeback, bringing winds 34 mph/56km/h with gust 58 mph/'93km/h to Barbados

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2007 09:22:51 -0700 (PDT)

99L is making a comeback as it heads to the islands,In
the last few hours, banding has improved, and a
increase in heavy thunderstorms.99L has apparently
been able to fight off most of the dry air, and over
the past 6 hours has sustained a sizable burst of
convection. 

 Wind shear is only 5-15 knots, fairly favorable for
some development(But shear is forecast to increase in
48 hours). SSTs are 28-30C, very favourable as well,
The GFDL develops a CAT1 by wednesday(Earlier, then
dropped the system). The CMC and the GFS also develop
the wave, but not as strong.

Barbados Grantley Adams has in the last hour reported
Heavy Showers, Rain with winds from the   East at... 
34 mph  / 56 km/h / 15.4 m/s with gusts of .... 58 mph
 / 93 km/h / 25.7 m/s .

Canefield Airport, Dominica is reporting  Wind  from
the E (100 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT) gusting to 23
MPH (20 KT).

Hewanorra International Airport, Saint Lucia reported
Light Rain Showers  21 mph  / 33 km/h /  from the  
ENE

Earlier the Navy/NRL issued a Tropical cyclone
formation alert (below)

The Hurricane Hunters are sheduled to investigate the
system this afternoon,so we will See what will happen
.  


Bottom-line: This system will likely bring squalls to
the Windward Islands during the next day or so. 

Some potential for this system to
become a tropical depression during the next day or
two.

Below:1.visible sat 
      2. Doppler radar from Martinique
      3.Tropical cyclone formation alert graph
      4.sat
      5.Gfdl model run (earlier) 
       6.ramdis visible sat.


       
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- T.s Chantal,99L weakens,likely to bring heavy rains to the islands tommorrow.

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2007 12:56:29 -0700 (PDT)

It?s a nice day around the island,bright shinning
sun,cool rather strong sea-breeze and few puffy
clouds.The weather here in Jamaica should continue to
be pleasant and sunny until Friday, when 99L and its
associated showers and thunderstorms should be across
the island. 

T.S Chantal
Well the 3rd tropical storm of the season
(Chantal)formed out of Tropical Depression #3 Which
spawned late yesterday evening in the Nw Atlantic.This
system will be moving over the cool waters of the
N.Atlantic by later tonight and lose its tropical
characterictics by the next day or so there after
bring minimal impacts to s.Newfoundland mainly gale
force winds and up to 100mm/3.9in of rain.

99L

99L looks a less organized than it did last night.
However, good outflow has been re-established over it,
and conditions are fairly favorable for some slow
development during the next24- 48 hours.

The latest QuikScat pass is 9 hours old, but it shows
a poorly defined elongated circulation which is still
partially embedded in the ITCZ. I don?t think we will
see anything come from 99L today, as the dry air will
continue to choke off any convection that tries to
form. However with enough time, if it survives, the
system could be a threat to develop once it?s in the
Caribbean, where the dry air will slack off a little
bit. 

Wind shear remains favorable, although it is
forecasted to increase slightly in the central
Caribbean.
None of the reliable models are really developing this
system(exception cmc), but it is really hard to pick
up because of how weak and small it is.

Only one model (CMC) Canadian Meteorological Center)
stil ldevelops this into a weak system, then moves it
westward into the coast along Honduras at the end of
its forecast period. 
 Right now I think the only thing 99L really needs is
a well-developed surface circulation. If it can get
that, then it would probably be able to survive while
these intermittent bursts of convection slowly moisten
the atmosphere around it. The next QuikScat pass will
be interesting to see if 99L was able to do any
reorganization overnight.

 Bottom line, this thing still needs to be watched.


 Below: ecar_tomorrow expected rainfall
        Cmc model run on 99L
        99L model tracks
        more model tracks
        intensity mod4el track
        sat.picture
        last night when 99L was organising source
weather underground   


       
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- Invest 99L Possible Tropical Cyclone threat to the Islands

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 30 Jul 2007 22:54:35 -0700 (PDT)

An area of interest has developed,currently about 800
miles east of the islands and has been designated
99L,overnight this area has gotten quite impressive
and the question is,is the system currently developing
into  a T.d or is it undergoing its diurnal max phase
where convection is likely to flare up again around
the coc with the  night's evaporative cooling.

Well it looks a bit of both ,tonight(early morning)the
system is developing outflow, as one can see from the
satellite picture -- especially to the north. After
having much of its convection sheared off today, it is
rebuilding itself. More importantly, the new
convection is forming directly over the surface low,
as opposed to the earlier convection, which was
lopsided and was hindering further organization.

Wind shear is only 5-10 knots, VERY favourable for
rapid development. SSTs are 28-30C, very favourable as
well. But there is some SAL to the north of the
system, and that could slow development, Also there is
no dry air near the LLC, as the system is now
reorganizing in very moist air. But a TD Could well
form soon, although the dry air is to the west of the
system right through the caribbean sea. The low looks
to be around 11N 49W, moving W-WNW track. The GFDL
develop a CAT1 by wednesday(Earlier, then dropped the
system). The CMC and the GFS also develop the wave,
but not as strong.

I belive this system could certainly become a Tropical
Depression or Tropical Storm before reaching the
islands,residents should keep a very close watch on
this system.
 


       
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- Disturbance 98L forms north of the southern Bahamas

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 28 Jul 2007 14:42:44 -0700 (PDT)

                                                      
    Today was a mixed day we experienced several      
         conditions,from partly sunny- partly
cloudy-overcast-drizzle and back again all this thanks
to a Mid Level Trough across our area,More light rain
can be expected,especially tommorrow Western
parishes...3mm      .....Cen/Ern....5mmm


Tropics

Well,the models are suggesting increased  activity
over the next two weeks,Currently a tropical wave is
over the Atlantic along 20w S of 19n moving W 
10 kt 
The majority of the models jumped on this yesterday,
and were in fairly good agreement of developing this
area as it moves west across the Atlantic. However
model support on the current runs has become a lot
less concurrent. The CMC (Canadian Meteorological
Center) models is still bullish with this system and
develops it in around 48-72 hours to the tune of near
1000 mb. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model
starts to develop a weaker system in a few days,
however it looses it by Thursday of next week.

The ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather
Forecasting) model has since dropped the idea of
development, after showing consistency in 3
consecutive runs of the model yesterday. None of the
other models develop this area.

This will be monitored though, as conditions can
change very quickly in the tropics, and we are getting
to that time in the season where activity begins to
ramp up.

Elsewhere, models are in fair agreement of developing
a weak low off the Mid Atlantic coast near the middle
of next week (Tues-Thurs. time frame), and then moving
it off to the NE. I will monitor this over the next
few days as well.  
     

98L  
An area of strong thunderstorms has developed near of
the southern Bahamas and has some possibilty of
cyclonic development,Residents of Bermuda should
closely monitor this system.

Below is what Dr.Jeff Master of Weather Underground
had  to say of the system.

A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed
just north of the southern Bahamas Islands this
morning, in association with a broad surface trough of
low pressure. The NHC labeled this disturbance "98L"
this morning, and the preliminary computer model
tracks have the system moving slowly to the
north-northeast. An upper-level low pressure system to
98L's northeast is bringing about 15 knots of wind
shear over the disturbance. The GFS model predicts
that the upper low will move north-northeast in tandem
with the disturbance, keeping low enough shear over it
that a tropical depression could form. The other
reliable models do not develop 98L. At present, it
appears that Bermuda is the only place that needs to
concern itself with 98L. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm Sunday
afternoon.

Below:Latest model runs of track and intensity 
   


       
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- WOAH

From: "Sue Morris" <sue.island at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2007 12:45:14 -0500

Well the rains have arrived with vengeance. The sheets have blown clean off the line - of course into the "red dirt"

Plenty of wind, thunder and lightning going on all around, a good day to get that book out. I saw a sail boat a fair distance out about half an hour ago, it was moving at a great rate of knots - hopefully they made it to where they were heading before this kicked up

From the look of the radar, this will pass through quickly. Good for the grass and the plants, maybe the grass will take on that "green" colour it is supposed to have.

Stay Dry

Sue M

- Light Rain as Tropical Wave travels westward across the island

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 21 Jul 2007 14:52:29 -0700 (PDT)

Well,currently light rain here in Montego Bay. 

The day started out sunny,but as the afternoon rolled
around so did the dark clouds and finally the rain,as
the clouds streamed in I took a few pictures (below).

The metservice has issued the following news release
this morning:

INCREASED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW


A Tropical Wave currently east of Jamaica is expected
to move westwards across the island today.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect
eastern parishes at first before spreading to other
parishes during the afternoon and into tonight.

Fishers and other marine interests should exercise
caution due to strong winds and rough seas in the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.



So far at my location (Montego Bay),only 0.1in/2.54
millimeters.

Welcome Sue,Glad to have you back (less work for me )

 Below: 1&2 pictures I took of today's rain
        3.visible sat of the island
        4.Doppler radar of the island
        5&6.24hr. WCARIB/ECARIB  rainfall forecast   
      


       
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- Good Morning Jamaica

From: "Sue Morris" <sue.island at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Sat, 21 Jul 2007 09:53:48 -0500

Morning to All

Time to give Blayz some support, he has been holding the fort for Jamaica. I have been very slack since returning from my holiday abroad - ya know how that goes. T'ings pile up and ya wonder why on earth ya ever decided to venture away from your desk.

Oh well, such is life.

It has been hot, hot, hot here in every sense of the word. Very little rain and not much relief from the ocean. Not sure if we are going to get anything out of this tropical wave that is causing havoc to our east. We certainly could do with some moisture, but please not the torrentials. One of my co-workers said to me on Thursday "Be careful what you wish for". I am heeding his advice, so I'm staying neutral

The sky is clear blue, slight breeze blowing, the washing is on the line and doing it's thing. Dogs are very lethargic, they are closely inspecting the colour of the floor tiles, especially in the doorways. Have never figured out why large dogs decide the best place to get their rest is sprawled out lengthways across the entire doorway. They give you a most indignant look if your foot happens to clock them upside the head when you try to maneuver around or over top of them.

We were going to venture west to Mobay this weekend, however Sumfest is in full swing for the next 2 days, so can't bother with the traffic and the crowds. Next weekend will do just fine. Perfect time to get out a good book and make that the weekend project.

More anon I promise

Sue M

- Wet,Wet Weekend Likely.

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 20 Jul 2007 21:32:26 -0700 (PDT)

 It's been another beautiful day here(in Montego Bay)
today the sunset was truly
spectacluar(below).Thursday,the capital city
Kingston,experienced very heavy rain offically
11.3cm/4.4inches/113 millimeters !!!,However I have
not heard any reports of flooding,this rainfall was
the result of a persistent Upper Level Trough which
has been moving away fro the island.

 Wet,Wet,Weekend Likely

A Tropical Wave is projected to be across the island
by Saturday and is expected to enhance activity across
the area, bringing periods of showers and
thunderstorms until Sunday. This Tropical Wave was
really strong yesterday and brought up to 3 inches of
rain in the Puerto Rico/Us Virgin Islands,it has
weakend considerable but will still provide us with a
wet week weekend expect between (2mm/0.03in-25mm/1in)

Below,
            1.Today's spectacular sunset
             2.Forecasted Accumulated rainfall 
               a)WCarib
               b)ECarib  


       
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- new 2007 record 35.0 deg C / 96 deg F offically in Kingston

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Jul 2007 22:20:01 -0700 (PDT)

 No doubt about it,it's being extremely hot here in
Jamaica,especially in Kingston,Where it reached
offically 35.0 deg C/96 deg F making
today(yesterday10th) the hottest day of the year.
 we in Montego Bay have not been far from the 35
marks,we have been at 34deg C almost everyday since
the start of                                          
                                the month.

Forecast

The record may be broken again tommorow.offical wmo
forecast.

 11 Jul
( Wed ) 27 35 Mainly sunny


12 Jul
( Thu ) 27 34 Mainly sunny


13 Jul
( Fri ) 26 34 Mainly sunny


Tropical outlook


It's another quiet day in the tropics,its been like
this since last week,when a low promising low pressure
area (96l) failed to materialize to anything.

Waves


There are currently four waves 24w,52w,65w,79w

24w

This wave is not forecasted by any of the models to
develop .This wave will move wnw through the Windward
Islands on Sunday.

52w

This wave is not likely to develop,The wave moving
into an area of hostile windshear.The wave will move
through the Windward Islands tommorrow bring an
increase in showers and thunderstorms ,

65w

This wave is very weak and low latitude and is in an
area of 40-50kt shear,no development likely.

79w

no development likely,very weak with no associated
structure,more associated with the ITCZ and upper
level features.


Future waves
A wave is forecasted to exit the African Coast
Sunday,but models do not forecast cyclonic development


Wind Shear

Wind Shear is currently too high for tropical
development across the areas we would typically look
for tropical development this time of year,with
exception of the Gulf of Mexico (5kts),the Caribbean
and Central Atlantic windshear ranges from
30-80kts(80kts where a trof extend from Hispaniola
across Jamaica to Nicargua). The windshear will remain
high across the basin for at least the next
168hrs/7days.


SAL

Dry air and African dust dominates the entire Atlantic
basin from the Coast of Africa to just east of the
Lesser Antilles ,around the Lesser Antilles it lessens
considerably.There is also a large area of African
dust from the Bahamas-Puerto Rico and Jamaica.In
August there may be a reduction in SAL closer to the
African Coast.


Tropical Development this week unlikely,but I strongly
belive when things start get cranking they really will
start get cranking.Do not get complacent on this
hurricane season.


Snow in Buenos Aires first in 90 years

Snow in Buenos Aires first in 90 years!

It snowed in Buenos Aires,Argentina for the first time
in 90 years . The Buenos Aires snowfall was caused by
a combination of two factors: an Antarctic wind and a
low pressure system coming from the Andes. Still, not
even the Argentina Meteorology Center vice president
Héctor Ciappesoni could believe the spectacle in
Buenos Aires.

"Thursday and Friday?s models showed snow in the
capital, but we did not want to report the news
because it is tough to announce a phenomenon that
occurs only once every 100 years," Ciappesoni said.

The Meteorology Service announced that low
temperatures will continue to affect the continent for
the next few days

Thousands of Argentinians cheered and threw snowballs
in the streets of Buenos Aires yesterday as the
capital's first major snowfall since 1918 spread a
thin white mantle across the region. Wet snow fell for
hours in the Argentine capital. The storm struck on
Argentina's Independence Day holiday, adding to a
festive air.

A white blanket covered parks and lawns for the joy of
adults and children who ran to the streets camera in
hand to play and take pictures.

Forecasts are for polar winds and freezing
temperatures until next Tuesday, but no new snow is
expected.

Caribbean Summary (July 11th)weather underground


Weather Underground Forecast for Wednesday, July 11,
2007.

A tropical wave will push through the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Wednesday while another one travels
through the western Caribbean Sea. These two waves are
expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
over northern Venezuela and Colombia as well as
southern Central America.

The Atlantic ridge will build over the next few days,
maintaining fresh to strong trade winds across the
forecast region. No tropical system formation is
anticipated on Wednesday. Highs are expected in the
80s and lower 90s.


Below
      1st SAl (Sahara Air Layer)
      2nd Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
      3rd Sea Surface Temperature
      4th Buenas Aires snow 


 
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- Good news 96L no longer a threat to develop into a Tropical Depression

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2007 13:12:52 -0700 (PDT)

A low pressure system with a well-defined spin (96l),which I have been commenting about for the past few day near 11N 48W, has lost all of its heavy thunderstorm activity and no longer appears to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression.The wave has moved into an a large area of dry air and it would it will be very difficult for it to mount a comeback.The area is currently under 10kts of shear,this will increase to a hostile 20-30 knots by Saturday, further lessening the chances for 96L to develop. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression, and climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is unusual. NHC is no longer running their suite of computer model tracks on the system

Below large area of dust around the system

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Weather Summary for the rest of the region (wether underground)

More active weather is anticipated across the tropics on Thursday as a tropical wave approaches the Leeward Islands. This wave will bring enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to the region, and could have some potential to strengthen into a tropical depression by the end of the week.

Elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, mostly placid weather is anticipated.

The Greater Antilles will see typical summertime showers and thunderstorms from Cuba through Puerto Rico, with the greatest chance for thunderstorms in Cuba.

This wet weather over land will spread to Central America where showers and storms are likely from the Yucatan Peninsula southward. Heavy rain is especially likely over Costa Rica.

Precip / model forecast

12z Thursday-Fri

Fri-sat

Sat-sun

Sun-Mon

On Monday,the wave I have been mentioning all week,will bring much need rain to the island (Jamaica).

This week's stats (weather underground)

	Temp (°F)			Dew Point (°F)			Humidity (%)			Sea Level Pressure (in)			Visibility (mi)			Wind (mph)		Gust Speed (mph)	Precip (in)	Events
July	high	avg	low	high	avg	low	high	avg	low	high	avg	low	high	avg	low	high	avg	high	sum
1	89	84	78	81	76	75	94	83	74	30.04	29.97	29.92	7	7	7	22	7	-	0.40	Rain , Thunderstorm
2	89	84	78	81	76	73	89	81	70	30.01	29.97	29.92	7	7	7	22	7	-	0.00
3	89	84	78	81	75	70	89	74	62	30.01	29.97	29.89	7	7	7	22	5	-	0.00
4	89	84	78	79	73	61	89	76	38	29.98	29.95	29.89	7	7	7	21	6	-	0.00
5	87	82	78	79	75	72	89	78	66	29.98	29.94	29.89	6	6	6	21	6	-	0.00

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- 96L less organised than yesterday,but could still develop into T.D 3 before impacting the slands

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 12:26:17 -0700 (PDT)

A tropical wave(96L) which looked certain to develop into a tropical depression yesterday,has really weakened but 96L continues to fight. The convection it had been maintaining overnight and into this morning is all but gone, and once again the dry air is choking this system to death.The Nhc says that tropical development is posible in the next day or two.Below is what a ryang had to say about the system this Morning .

A tropical wave along 10N 36W, is being watched for development...Are is it...LOL, about 1300 miles east of the islands. Thunderstorm activity has weakened today. It has nice rotation, fairly weak outflow and a very strong surface low at the lower levels. Shear is currently 15 knots around the around. But shear get's as low as 5 knots all the way up to 60 West. As the wave moves furthur westward conditions should get better(In term's of shear). SAL is very heavy north of the wave, so any northward movement would kill it, so it has to ventilate around 10 north. Winds around the wave are 20-30 knots, recorded by a SHIP. Both the CMC, and the GFS show this wave developing. The CMC shows a weak TS moving towards the islands. The GFS shows a TD at most heading towards to leeward islands. We will see!!

Below are a few useful models and pics of the system

This is what Dr.Jeff Master had to ay about the system earlier today

A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.

Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

(my comments)

I have also noticed a second interest area.

Second area of interest

A area of clouds and enhanced thunderstorm activity is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday and has some potential to develop into a tropical depression this week.

Below is the strength sthe models are forecasting for (96l)

Residents of the Windard Islands should not be alarmed ,but should continue to monitor the system(96l) by tuning in to your local meterological service .

Have a good day.

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- A Tropical wave worth watching(96L) .Posiblilty of a Tropical Depression in the next 48-72 hrs

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2007 12:57:02 -0700 (PDT)

July has started with a bang ! There is already a invest/area of posible tropical development.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic Ocean about 1500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has become a little better organized this morning. Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable... some further development of this system is possible... and a tropical depression could form over the next day or so as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours. $$ Forecaster Blake
Below is Jeff Masters perspective on the system
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 9N 38W, has grown more organized since yesterday. This system
has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and this morning's 4:28am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 35 mph. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 20 knots in the region over the next two days. This is low enough wind shear to allow some slow development. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is above the 26 C minimum temperature tropical storms typically need to form. There is one cluster of strong thunderstorms near the center of circulation, but dry air to the north
appears to be limiting the thunderstorm activity. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50-100 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, but does not have a very good handle on it, since it is showing far too slow of a forward speed. Our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not develop the system. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Given this fact, plus the presence of so much dry air near a relatively small circulation, I am not expecting this to become a tropical depression. Movement of 96L will be just north of due west over the next few days at 15 mph, as seen in the model
forecast plots (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.
Below is ryang perspective on the wave
A tropical wave along 10N 36W, is being watching for develop...Are is it...LOL, about 1300 miles east of the islands. Thunderstorm activity has increased today. It has nice rotation, good outflow and a very strong surface low developing at the lower levels. Shear is currently 15 knots around the around. But shear get's as low as 5 knots all the way up to 60 West. As the wave moves furthur westward conditions should get better(In term's of shear). SAL is very heavy north of the wave, so any northward movement would kill it, so it has to ventilate around 10 north. Winds around the wave are 20-30 knots, recorded by a SHIP. Both the CMC, and the GFS show this wave developing. The CMC shows a weak TS moving to the
islands. The GFS shows a TD at most. We will see!!

My probabilities for this wave:

TD 3 - 90%
TS Chantal - 50%
Hurricane Chantal - 20%
Few pics of the system
Model runs of the system
Have a Great day.

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- Summer starts early

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 25 Jun 2007 14:27:12 -0700 (PDT)

Hot start to summer

Even before the official start of summer last week .It has been very hot on the island, even in the night the heat is relentless. It is amazing how quickly each day heats up; from early in the morning, for example today at 8 am this morning it was 32.5 deg C, people have responded to the heat the beaches are jam packed, If you are like me and cant stand the crowded or the cold water it best to go in the nights, When the sea is warm and less crowded.

Advice for heat

Drink more fluids (nonalcoholic), regardless of your activity level. Don?t wait until you?re thirsty to drink. Warning: If your doctor generally limits the amount of fluid you drink or has you on water pills, ask him how much you should drink while the weather is hot.
Don?t drink liquids that contain alcohol or large amounts of sugar?these actually cause you to lose more body fluid. Also, avoid very cold drinks, because they can cause stomach cramps.
Stay indoors and, if at all possible, stay in an air-conditioned place. If your home does not have air conditioning, go to the shopping mall or public library?even a few hours spent in air conditioning can help your body stay cooler when you go back into the heat. Call your local health department to see if there are any heat-relief shelters in your area.
Electric fans may provide comfort, but when the temperature is in the high 90s, fans will not prevent heat-related illness. Taking a cool shower or bath, or moving to an air-conditioned place is a much better way to cool off.
Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing.
NEVER leave anyone in a closed, parked vehicle.
Although any one at any time can suffer from heat-related illness, some people are at greater risk than others. Check regularly on:

Infants and young children
People aged 65 or older
People who have a mental illness
Those who are physically ill, especially with heart disease or high blood pressure

Visit adults at risk at least twice a day and closely watch them for signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Infants and young children, of course, need much more frequent watching.

Limit your outdoor activity to morning and evening hours.
Cut down on exercise. If you must exercise, drink two to four glasses of cool, nonalcoholic fluids each hour. A sports beverage can replace the salt and minerals you lose in sweat. Warning: If you are on a low-salt diet, talk with your doctor before drinking a sports beverage. Remember the warning in the first ?tip? (above), too.
Try to rest often in shady areas.
Protect yourself from the sun by wearing a wide-brimmed hat (also keeps you cooler) and sunglasses and by putting on sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher (the most effective products say ?broad spectrum? or ?UVA/UVB protection? on their labels).

July statistics

(source weather underground)

	Max:	Avg:	Min:	Sum:
Temperature:
Max Temperature	93 °F / 34 °C	90 °F / 32 °C	84 °F / 29 °C
Mean Temperature	86 °F / 30 °C	83 °F / 28 °C	78 °F / 26 °C
Min Temperature	81 °F / 27 °C	75 °F / 24 °C	72 °F / 22 °C
Degree Days:
Heating Degree Days (base 65)	0	0	0	0
Cooling Degree Days (base 65)	21	18	12	440
Growing Degree Days (base 50)	36	33	28	815
Dew Point:
Dew Point	82 °F / 28 °C	76 °F / 25 °C	70 °F / 21 °C
Precipitation:
Precipitation	1.30 in / 3.3 cm	0.11 in / 0.3 cm	0.00 in / 0.0 cm	2.77 in / 7.00 cm
Snowdepth	-	-	-	-
Wind:
Wind	22 mph / 35 km/h	5 mph / 8 km/h	0 mph / 0 km/h
Gust Wind	-	-	-
Sea Level Pressure:
Sea Level Pressure	30.02 in / 1016 hPa	29.91 in / 1013 hPa	29.80 in / 1009 hPa

1
Actual:	90 \| 74
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

2
Actual:	91 \| 77
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

3
Actual:	90 \| 74
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

4
Actual:	91 \| 76
Precip:	0.31
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

5
Actual:	92 \| 76
Precip:	0.08
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

6
Actual:	93 \| 76
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

7
Actual:	91 \| 79
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

8
Actual:	91 \| 77
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

9
Actual:	85 \| 76
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

10
Actual:	84 \| 72
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

11
Actual:	90 \| 73
Precip:	0.98
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

12
Actual:	86 \| 72
Precip:	1.30
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

13
Actual:	88 \| 72
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

14
Actual:	89 \| 75
Precip:	0.08
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

15
Actual:	92 \| 75
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

16
Actual:	93 \| 76
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

17
Actual:	87 \| 74
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

18
Actual:	91 \| 81
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

19
Actual:	91 \| 75
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

20
Actual:	92 \| 74
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

21
Actual:	91 \| 77
Precip:	0.02
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

22
Actual:	88 \| 76
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

23
Actual:	93 \| 75
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

24
Actual:	89 \| 76
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

25
Actual:	87 \| 77
Precip:	0.00
Average:	- \| -
Precip:	-

Forecast

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE?High Pressure Ridge across the Caribbean.

Today

Mainly sunny morning. In the afternoon partly cloudy with isolated showers over central parishes.

Tonight

Fair.

FOUR-DAY FORECAST

Mon...Mainly sunny morning. In the afternoon partly cloudy with isolated showers over central parishes. Tue...Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers during the afternoon. Wed/Thur...Mainly fair partly cloudy afternoon.


Tuesday	Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers during the afternoon.
Thursday	Mainly fair partly cloudy afternoon.
Friday	Mainly fair partly cloudy afternoon.
Wednesday

Tropical outlook (next two weeks)

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

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- one extreme to another

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 9 Jun 2007 13:25:35 -0700 (PDT)

From one extreme to another, Rainy with Flood rains last week ,Hot and humid this week

It?s been a hot week here in Montego Bay; we have been experiencing daily temperatures around the 90 deg F/32 deg C mark, and with the humidity, it felt even hotter. One may think that we are a tropical country and this should be average, but we in Jamaica experience a Tropical marine Climate. In this climate type,the sea, in this case the Caribbean Sea ,moderates temperatures so it never gets too hot (past 30 deg C/86 deg F), and the effect of sea breezes( which happens when air above the land surface is heated by radiation from the Sun, it expands and begins to rise or convect, being lighter than the surrounding air. To replace the rising air, cooler air is drawn in from above the surface of the sea. This is the sea breeze, and can offer a pleasant cooling influence on hot summer afternoons), but which makes it feel comfortable was weak to absent.

Last week we experienced, over 6 inches of rainfall, especially last week Wednesday when we experienced 4 inches of rain in just 3 hours as result, sections of the city was flood as the North Gully overflowed its banks, Streets turned into raging river, and several businesses were flooded out. Some manholes exploded and as water gushed through people could be seen scampering for cover. The current Prime Minister came Sunday, during her campaign (elections due constitutionally before October) and announced several measures to combat the problem of flooding. Hopefully she sticks to this resolution.

Forecast (for next 5 days)

There is currently a low level trough across the Central Caribbean, but this should not really affect our for today weather. Look for partly cloudy to cloudy skies with possible thunderstorms in the afternoons.

I was read O?Neil?s blog about a Tropical wave off the African Coast while this wave looks impressive, there is nothing to worry about as the sea surface temperatures off the coast are too cool for tropical development and this time of year we normally look closer to home (Gulf of Mexico, western, Central and Southern Caribbean for tropical development) in fact there is an area of broad low pressure we are currently watching in the Sw Caribbean ,east of Panama which is looking quite impressive but tropical development looks unlikely at this point in time..

I recently got a digital camera .I tried it out this morning when there were some beautiful cirrus clouds around.

Below: 1 my sky pic

2 my sky pic

3 satellite jamaica

4 "watch area"

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sky picture 1

sky picture 2

- Something's a brewing on tha Horizon

From: O'Neil Clarke <hurricane_spotter at hotmail.com>
Date: Sat, 9 Jun 2007 11:05:58 -0500

Good Day all. Well we have another Hurricane Season upon us, time flies oh so quickly the older one gets, as I look in the direction of the West Africa Coast and see a potential spinner. Lets all hope that the ghosts of Hurricane Past keep us safe for another year.

More Time
O'Neil Clarke

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- Tropical Storm Barry now no more

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Sat, 2 Jun 2007 21:56:00 -0700 (PDT)

Barry dies, A few pics of last weeks flooding

Barry has died a quick death, a result of very strong shear and dry air piercing the heart of the system. Below Accuweather Sums up all the recent happens with the system

State College, PA) - Barry has been officially downgraded to a tropical depression. Barry moved inland over Florida late Saturday morning near Tampa Bay.

Barry is the second named storm of 2007, after Subtropical Storm Andrea, which made a brief appearance off the Carolina coast on May 9 and 10.

At 5:00 P.M. EDT Saturday, Tropical Depression Barry was located in the vicinity of Jacksonville, Florida, and was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 mph. Maximum-sustained winds were near 35 mph. The Hurricane Center has more on the expected track and intensity of the storm, which is rapidly evolving into a tropical rainstorm for the East Coast. The winds associated with Barry are now mainly found over the Atlantic waters east of Florida and northward to the South Carolina coast.

Barry has brought welcome rainfall to drought-stricken and wildfire-ravaged Florida and Georgia. Most places in north Florida and on the peninsula recieved at least an inch of rainfall from Barry, but a few places had over six inches. Although this much rainfall was badly needed, some flooding was reported in West Palm Beach, Fla, where well over 6 inches of rain fell.

The South Regional News story reports that 2 to 4 inches of rain will fall in the Carolinas and Georgia Saturday night as Barry tracks northward close to the coast, including locations such as Wilmington, N. C., and that an inch or two may fall in places farther west including Charlotte.

Along with the rain, there will be thunderstorms, some of which could become severe to the east of the track of Barry's center. Southern Expert Frank Strait discusses the threat of damaging winds and tornadoes in his latest blog entry.

Barry will continue moving northward over the next couple of days close to the East Coast. Rain will spread into the Mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, which will impact outdoor events in the region, as discussed in the South Regional News. The rain may be heavy enough to cause some local flooding problems as well. Also, places along the immediate coast will experience gusty winds, but the winds are not likely to be strong enough to cause any damage. As discussed in the East Regional News, Barry's track will take the heavy rain northward through the big cities of the Interstate 95 Corridor including including Philadelphia , New York City, and Boston Sunday night into Monday morning, then into northern New England during the day Monday.

Last week,We experience a total of 6 inches of rain.I glad to report we experienced no rain today,and bright sunshine is in the forecast.

Below are a few photos of the flooding.(source Gleaner,and Observer)

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- Early start to hurricane season Tropical storm Barry forms in the Gulf of Mexico

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 1 Jun 2007 22:09:26 -0700 (PDT)

It was only about 18 hours into the hurricane season when already,We had our first Tropical Storm.This storm will not directly impact us here in the Caribbean,but will impact us in the Central Caribbean in the form of lots of rain as their are many troughs extending sward from the system

What are the experts saying about Barry?

This is what Jeff masters said about the storm.

The hurricane season of 2007 officially began today, and we officially have our second surprising named storm of the season--Tropical Storm Barry. Barry is highly unusual in that it developed in the presence of strong wind shear--about 20-40 knots. I've never seen a tropical storm form under more than about 25 knots of wind shear. Satellite loops show a well-defined circulation to the west of Key West, and heavy thunderstorm activity popping up on the north side of the center. Barry is over the warm 82F waters of the Loop Current, and will gradually traverse over colder waters as it moves north and then north-northeast over the next day. The circulation of Barry is now visible on the Key West radar. Pulaski Shoal Light just to the northeast of Barry's center recorded sustatined winds of 35 mph, gusting to 40mph, at 2pm EDT today.

The Hurricane Hunters are still in Barry, and found that the pressure continues to drop--997 mb at 6:30pm EDT. The winds are also increasing, with the top winds at 77 mph at flight level of 1,500 feet at 5pm EDT. This corresponds to peak surface winds of about 60 mph. However, these winds are not representative of the storm, and likely occurred in the outflow from the strongest thunderstorm near the center. NHC is justified in bringing the intensity up to just 50 mph in their 8pm advisory.

I don't expect Barry will intensify to a hurricane, due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters underneath. Barry should mostly be a blessing for Florida, who can use the 3-6 inches of rain the storm is likely to bring. Some storm surge flooding may occur along the same stretch of coast affected by Tropical Storm Alberto last year. However, no damage was reported due to Alberto's storm surge, and Barry's should be roughly the same magnitude. Perhaps the greatest threat from Barry will be tornadoes that could form Saturday afternoon over Florida.

A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in second place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Third place is held by 1934, when the second storm of the year formed on June 4. The second storm of 1934 was also the worst June hurricane on record. It hit Central America as a Category 1 hurricane, dropping up to 25 inches of rain on Honduras, triggering landslides that killed 3,000 people.

There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1934 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and no intense hurricanes.

11p.m tropical disscussion

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG
SHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT
BARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF
AN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE FACT
THAT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS. BARRY SHOULD BEGIN
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

BARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CAUSED BY THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD FORCE THE
CYCLONE TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE CENTER OF BARRY IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER SINCE THE STORM IS NOT SYMMETRIC.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
COULD REMAIN BEHIND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR
BUT NONE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED THIS SOLUTION SO FAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/0300Z 24.7N 84.9W    45 KT
12HR VT     02/1200Z 27.3N 84.0W    40 KT
24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     03/1200Z 33.0N 80.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.1N 76.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     05/0000Z 42.0N 70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT     06/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

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- extreme rainfall

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 30 May 2007 19:14:57 -0700 (PDT)

Extreme rainfall officially 3.82in/9.7cm/97.02mm,City experiences extensive flooding

While Montego Bay is no stranger to heavy downpours today?s rain fall was exceptional. The rain began as a few light showers at midday with a few peals of thunder, but it was at 2: oopm the real heavy rain began. It was so heavy the phrase raining cats and dogs might be an understatement. The very heavy continuous rain continued until 3p.m after which it became considerably lighter ,but the damage had already been done .The north Gully River was in raging; it overflowed its banks, near-by on Montego Bay?s most bustling street, St.James Street, The manholes exploded, the water spewed through , rats and roaches could be seen scrambling and People had to run to higher ground, in no time the Gas station was under water cars were almost fully submerged, Wreckers had to assist when it was all over, Sections of church street and many others streets were flooded. Roads turned to rivers and people were held hostage to the weather. Some businesses were flooded out. This all happened at the worst time at the peak of rush hour. Persons had to park and wait until the water receded which did not happen until about 4p.m.Unfortunatly the traffic is horrendous and currently as I type hundreds of people are still in the city trying to reach home.

Forecast

Happy to report better weather is on the way, we just have to endure for 24hrs more, but during the next 24hrs we will see much better weather even a few hours of sunshine. Our weather in Jamaica on Thursday will continue to be influenced by a trough that is just to the north of the island. The trough is associated with a strong low to the northeast that has been the dominant factor in the weather for over a week.

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- Lots of rain likely this week

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 27 May 2007 21:09:43 -0700 (PDT)

Strong trough across the Central Caribbean to produce unstable weather over the island

A trough over the Central Caribbean has been triggering unstable conditions over the island. Since Friday, We have been experiencing heavy rainfall mainly in the afternoons. Some sections of the island have already picked up 3 inches of rain. At my location since Friday we have picked up 2.7inches.

What will be the effects of this system?

As the axis of this system continues to meander near the island, Cloudy to Overcast conditions are expected with Moderate ? heavy showers are likely mainly over southern and eastern parishes . Gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

For how long will this system affect the island?

This conditions will continue to affect the island tonight thru to Thursday.

How much are we expecting?

We can expect anywhere between 20-60 mm daily.

Dead toads everywhere

We have been experiencing rains for most of this month, and out of nowhere toads have emerged, they are beneficial as the rains have the caused the breeding of mosquitoes and other bugs and they help to control the insect population, but many of the toads have found themselves in the roads. Cars squish them out and now sections of my neighbor reeks of a foul odor.

a cane toad

Below 7 day sea surface analysis

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- Very active Atlantic hurricane season forecast by NOAA

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Tue, 22 May 2007 13:20:23 -0700 (PDT)

Its a bright sunny day here in Montego Bay,Which is a great change compared to what we have been experiencing last weekwhen very heavy rains lashed the island.Yesterday the preliminary damage estimate was set at about 90 million Jamaican dollars.The parishes most affected were St.Catherine,St.Thomas,Portland and St.Mary.

Brace yourself for a very active hurricane season

Jeff Masters blog reports we will have a very active hurricane season ,this is what he said in today's blog.

It's going to be a very active 2007 hurricane season in the Atlantic, according to NOAA's seasonal forecast issued today. The NOAA team predicts a very high (75% chance) of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. They expect 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes (a normal season has 10-11 named storm, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes). Most of these storms are expected during the usual August-October peak of hurricane season, but NOAA does not give any breakdown of which portions of the coast are more likely to be affected. They give two reasons for predicting an above-normal hurricane season:

1) A continuation of conditions since 1995 that have put us in an active hurricane period (in particular, the fact that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes are currently about 0.6 C above normal, Figure 1).

2) The strong likelihood of either neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Figure 1. Top: Tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region for hurricanes (green box) were 0.6 C above average during March and April 2007. This anomalous warmth is expected to persist though hurricane season. Bottom: The 0.6 C above average temperatures are consistent with the exceptionally warm temperatures seen since 2003. Image credit: NOAA.

How good are these forecasts?
NOAA's long lead hurricane outlook team, which consists of scientists from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (lead: Gerry Bell), National Hurricane center (NHC), and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), have been making seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1998. If one grades their May forecasts based on predictions of a below average, average, or above average season, NOAA has done pretty well. Seven of their nine forecasts have been correct. Their only failures occurred last year, when they called for a very active season (it was a normal year, with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes), and 2001, when they called for a normal year (it was a very active year, with 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes).

Steering currents for June
It's now possible to say something about the steering currents for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. A hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is no big deal if the steering currents are your friend! The forecast jet stream pattern for the next two weeks from the GFS model is similar to last year's pattern. I except we'll see a series of troughs of low pressure marching across the Atlantic Ocean through early June, which is typical for this time of year. The Bermuda High is in its usual location, and there are no signs of the unusual steering pattern of 2005 that brought so many hurricanes over the U.S.. It is still to early to say what the steering patterns will do during peak hurricane season, August through October, though.

The Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University issues their updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 31 next week, and I'll be sure to make a post about that forecast.

Jeff Masters

June`s Tropical Breeding Grounds

In this article Senior Meterologist Jim Andrews,highlights typical trouble spots

June 1st marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. But this early in the season, most of the Atlantic basin is historically unfavorable for storm formation. One area prone to June tropical storms is over the western Caribbean Sea. From here, storms may head northwest; others veer northward and northeastwards, even striking Florida. Another breeding area is over the open Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche, from whence storms usually head northwards. Rarer are storms that arise over the western Atlantic Ocean near the Bahamas.

Weather for the next 5 days source accuweather

Tuesday Night, May 22

More Details/AccuPop?

Partly cloudy, warm and humid. Winds will be light and variable

Realfeel®: 30 °C

Low: 24 °C

Wednesday, May 23

More Details

Humid with times of clouds and sun. Winds from the NE at 12 km/h.

Realfeel®: 36 °C

High: 30 °C

Wednesday Night, May 23

More Details

Partly cloudy, warm and humid. Winds will be light and variable

Realfeel®: 28 °C

Low: 25 °C

Thursday, May 24

More Details

Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine; breezy in the afternoon. Winds from the NE at 19 km/h.

Realfeel®: 33 °C

High: 30 °C

Thursday Night, May 24

More Details

Partly cloudy, warm and humid. Winds from the ENE at 4 km/h.

Realfeel®: 29 °C

Low: 25 °C

Friday, May 25

More Details

Humid with considerable cloudiness. Winds from the NE at 11 km/h.

Realfeel®: 35 °C

High: 30 °C

Friday Night, May 25

More Details

Cloudy most of the time, warm and humid. Winds will be calm

Realfeel®: 28 °C

Low: 25 °C

Saturday, May 26

More Details

Rather cloudy and humid. Winds from the NE at 16 km/h.

Realfeel®: 35 °C

High: 30 °C

Saturday Night, May 26

More Details

Mainly cloudy, warm and humid. Winds will be light and variable

Realfeel®: 28 °C

Low: 25 °C

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- Torrential rain likely as tropical low develops

From: Blayz Brooks <blayzbrooks at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 17 May 2007 23:03:31 -0700 (PDT)

More torrential rain likely as a tropical low pressure system develops west of the island

This week has been the wettest week by far since the start of the year. The island has been receiving torrential rainfall since late last week. There were reports of flooding everywhere; it was most extensive though in the eastern parishes. In Montego Bay, The sun has not been fully out for an entire day this week. It has either been overcast or raining. This has been as a result of a persistent surface trough which has not been moving much. This trough was once apart of our first named storm this season sub-topical storm Andrea.

Life-threaten floods possible Friday (18^th) thru Monday

Today, a tropical low pressure system will glide slowly towards the heart of Cuba from the western portion of the Caribbean Sea. This system will be monitored for any intensification through the next few days. . In the meantime, significant showers and thunderstorms will be generated through Cuba, the Bahamas and our island this (Friday) afternoon. These thunderstorms will have the capability of producing torrential rain through the region, today through Sunday.

Unfortunately, we will be on the moist / strongest side of the system, and with the ground already saturated, extensive flooding is possible if the system proceeds the way the models are currently predicting,

When will the rain end?

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but rain chances do not fall below 60% until Wednesday.

Saturday night into Sunday night rain chances go all the up to 100%.Even after the low departs to the Bahamas, a surface to low ?level trough will continue to influence weather over the island for the earlier part of next week.

How much should we expect?

Mostly overcast conditions and occasional thunderstorms and heavy rain. Daily rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches may be expected (depending on the movement and intensity the low), with locally higher in mountainous area.

Finally, try to keep dry this weekend, and if you live in a flood prone area be mindful of your surroundings.

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- hot and wet

From: "Sue Morris" <sue.island at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Mon, 14 May 2007 04:19:15 -0500

Early morning to all

the heat that has been affecting the other island has sucked on to Ochi like a wet blanket. The humidity over since Friday has been the talk of the day - we have all lost a lot of weight and left big puddles on the ground.

Yesterday the rains and wind came - of course the washing was on the line and is still there. Hopefully the sun will come out today and dry everything off.

The cable came and went all day - what better to do on a miserable wet and windy day, but to watch a good movie - HAH, "searching for satellite", I'm going to let the cable company know that I don't subscribe to that channel, and want them to take it out of my package immediately.

What channels that we had kept on freezing up, so it was hard to get the jist of what was happening - so it was house cleaning time instead.

2 leaks in the roof, so we know what Monday will bring - fix 2 and end up with 4 more.

We have had some flooding in the eastern end of the island, hopefully not too many folks cut off fromt he rest.

I am traveling north this week to see my new grand-baby, so much excitement in the family. Time to do plenty of shopping and stuff the bags full before returning home.

Sue M